Maurice Carroll, Director

Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

Rubenstein Associates, Inc.,

Public Relations
Pat Smith (212) 843-8026

FOR RELEASE: MAY 13, 2009

NEW YORK GOV. PATERSON GETS LOW SCORES FROM ALL RACES,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
GIULIANI NARROWS GAP WITH CUOMO IN GOVERNOR’S RACE
New York Gov. David Paterson’s approval rating is hovering at historic lows, with a disapproval
of 61 – 28 percent among all voters, including 49 – 37 percent among black voters, according to a
Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In a Democratic primary for the 2010 Governor’s race, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo
tops Gov. Paterson 62 – 17 percent, including 48 – 26 percent among blacks, the independent
Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll of more than 2,800 New York State voters finds.
Paterson’s 61 – 28 percent disapproval compares to a 60 – 28 percent disapproval April 6,
the lowest ever for a New York State Governor.
In the latest survey, white voters disapprove 66 – 24 percent and Hispanic voters
disapprove 47 – 43 percent.
In contrast, voters approve 68 – 12 percent of the job Attorney General Cuomo is doing,
with approval ratings of 78 – 8 percent among black voters, 68 – 12 percent among white voters
and 63 – 12 percent among Hispanics. Even Republicans approve 55 – 22 percent.
“Black New Yorkers give the black Governor a negative job approval rating, not as bad as
his overall rating but still on the downside,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac
University Polling Institute.
“With support in every demographic sub-group, including a 22-point lead among black
voters, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo trounces Gov. Paterson in a Democratic primary.
Paterson has time to turn things around before the 2010 election, of course, but there’s not a hint
of good news for him in this poll.”
-more-
 
Quinnipiac University Poll/May 13, 2009 – page 2
In an early look at the 2010 Governor’s race, former New York City Mayor Rudolph
Giuliani leads Paterson 54 – 32 percent. Giuliani leads 86 – 6 percent among Republicans and
60 – 21 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back Paterson 56 – 30 percent.
Giuliani leads 62 – 25 percent among white voters and 51 – 42 percent among Hispanics, while
black voters back Paterson 64 – 18 percent.
Cuomo-Giuliani
Cuomo leads Giuliani 47 – 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup, down from a 53 – 36
percent lead April 6. Independent voters have shifted from 49 – 38 percent for Cuomo April 8 to
44 – 40 percent for Giuliani today. In this latest survey, Giuliani leads 80 – 9 percent among
Republicans while Democrats back Cuomo 78 – 16 percent. Cuomo leads 76 – 13 percent among
black voters and 52 – 40 percent among Hispanics, as white voters go to Giuliani 47 – 42 percent.
“If the Republicans nominate Mayor Giuliani, he beats Paterson by a lot. Cuomo beats
Giuliani but that lead is shrinking as independent voters shift to the Republican. That’s a trend to
watch,” Carroll said.
New York State voters say 64 – 21 percent, including 46 – 33 percent among black voters,
that Paterson does not deserve to be reelected.
A total of 33 percent of voters say it is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that Paterson
will run next year for a full four-year term as Governor, while 62 percent say it is “not too likely”
or “not likely at all.”
If Paterson runs, it will be bad for other Democrats running in the state, voters say 48 – 29
percent. Black voters split 40 – 39 percent on this question.
“A lot of politicians think that the torrent of bad news will persuade Paterson not to run.
Voters think so, too,” Carroll said.
“If the Governor does what he says he will, and runs in 2010, voters think he’ll be bad
news for other Democrats on the ballot.”
From May 5 – 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,828 New York State registered
voters, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points. The survey includes 1,238 Democrats
with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and
nationwide as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed – http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml,
or call (203) 582-5201.

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1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held
today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?

REGISTERED DEMS................
Tot Men Wom Wht Blk

Paterson 17% 17% 18% 12% 26%

Cuomo 62 60 64 70 48
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1
DK/NA 18 20 17 17 23

TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being
held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you
vote?

May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17

2009 2009 2009

Paterson 17 18 23
Cuomo 62 61 55
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 1
DK/NA 18 17 20

2. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were
David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Paterson 32% 6% 56% 21% 32% 32% 25% 64% 42%

Giuliani 54 86 30 60 55 53 62 18 51
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 3 3 3 3 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 4 3 3 3 3 5 5
DK/NA 8 5 7 10 6 10 8 10 3

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Paterson 32% 24% 25% 44% 25%

Giuliani 52 60 58 45 60
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 3 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 3 4
DK/NA 10 10 10 5 9

TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were
David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17

2009 2009 2009

Paterson 32 32 43
Giuliani 54 53 43
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2
DK/NA 8 9 10

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3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were
Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Cuomo 47% 9% 78% 40% 44% 50% 42% 76% 52%

Giuliani 41 80 16 44 45 38 47 13 40
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 2 4
DK/NA 9 9 5 13 8 11 9 8 4

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Cuomo 48% 41% 42% 57% 41%

Giuliani 37 46 44 34 46
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 -
DK/NA 9 11 10 7 11

TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were
Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?

May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17

2009 2009 2009

Cuomo 47 53 51
Giuliani 41 36 37
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2
DK/NA 9 9 9

4. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Favorable 51% 32% 66% 49% 48% 53% 48% 70% 45%
Unfavorable 13 24 4 11 18 8 15 2 10
Hvn't hrd enough 34 42 28 37 31 37 35 28 43
REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 - 1

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 55% 44% 46% 57% 51%

Unfavorable 8 15 14 9 17
Hvn't hrd enough 37 39 39 32 29
REFUSED - 2 2 2 3

TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 23

2009 2009 2009 2009 2008

Favorable 51 63 63 57 55
Unfavorable 13 17 15 10 11
Hvn't hrd enough 34 18 20 32 32
REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2

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5. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Favorable 24% 17% 33% 20% 26% 22% 20% 38% 35%
Unfavorable 55 66 44 57 56 54 60 36 39
Hvn't hrd enough 18 15 20 19 15 21 16 22 25
REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 -

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 27% 22% 22% 29% 21%

Unfavorable 54 60 59 47 58
Hvn't hrd enough 18 16 16 21 18
REFUSED 1 3 3 3 3

TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?

May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 26

2009 2009 2009 2009

Favorable 24 27 41 48
Unfavorable 55 55 35 25
Hvn't hrd enough 18 14 20 24
REFUSED 3 4 4 3

6. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough
about him?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Favorable 56% 85% 35% 62% 57% 55% 62% 23% 53%
Unfavorable 32 5 52 26 32 32 25 68 34
Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 10 10 9 10 11 8 9
REFUSED 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 3

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Favorable 61% 58% 58% 48% 62%

Unfavorable 19 23 23 45 30
Hvn't hrd enough 18 16 17 4 6
REFUSED 1 2 2 2 2

TREND: Is your opinion of - Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?(*High also 56% Feb 2009 and Feb 2007 )

FAVORABLE.....
High Low
May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Dec 17 Oct 3 May 13 Dec 17
2009 2009 2009 2007 2007 2009* 2007

Favorable 56 55 56 41 55 56 41
Unfavorable 32 35 35 40 38 32 40
Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 7 16 5 10 16
REFUSED 2 4 2 3 2 2 3

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7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Approve 28% 20% 35% 27% 30% 26% 24% 37% 43%
Disapprove 61 73 54 62 61 61 66 49 47
DK/NA 10 7 11 11 8 12 10 14 10

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 27% 26% 26% 33% 26%

Disapprove 65 65 65 56 62
DK/NA 7 9 9 11 12

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as
Governor? (*Low also 28% Apr 2009)

APPROVE.......
High Low
May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 26 Jan 15 Aug 06 May 13
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009*

Approve 28 28 45 50 53 64 28
Disapprove 61 60 41 30 25 14 61
DK/NA 10 13 14 20 22 22 10

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State
Attorney General?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Approve 68% 55% 79% 69% 68% 68% 68% 78% 63%
Disapprove 12 22 5 10 15 8 12 8 12
DK/NA 20 22 16 21 17 23 20 14 25

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Approve 68% 67% 67% 69% 70%

Disapprove 8 12 11 12 13
DK/NA 24 21 22 20 17

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State
Attorney General?

APPROVE.......
High Low
May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 23 Feb 17 Feb 13
2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 2007

Approve 68 75 76 69 72 76 42
Disapprove 12 14 11 16 14 11 16
DK/NA 20 11 13 15 14 13 42

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9. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson
deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to
be elected to a full 4-year term?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Yes/Deserves 21% 12% 28% 19% 22% 20% 17% 33% 31%
No/Does not 64 75 56 67 64 64 69 46 50
DK/NA 15 14 16 14 13 16 13 21 19

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes/Deserves 22% 19% 20% 24% 18%

No/Does not 64 67 67 59 68
DK/NA 14 14 14 17 15

TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson
deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to
be elected to a full 4-year term?

May 13 Apr 06
2009 2009

Yes/Deserves 21 22
No/Does Not 64 63
DK/NA 15 16

10. Governor Paterson says he'll run for governor in 2010. How likely do you think it is
that he would win - very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Very likely 5% 4% 7% 5% 5% 6% 3% 17% 9%

Smwht likely 28 24 34 25 26 30 26 30 32
Not too likely 33 29 34 37 32 34 35 28 32
Not likely at all 29 39 21 30 33 26 32 18 23
DK/NA 4 3 4 3 4 5 4 6 4

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Very likely 10% 3% 4% 7% 5%

Smwht likely 25 27 27 31 25
Not too likely 32 32 32 32 37
Not likely at all 28 33 32 25 30
DK/NA 5 5 5 5 3

11. Do you think Governor Paterson running for governor in 2010 would be good or bad for
other Democrats running for election in New York State?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Good 29% 24% 37% 25% 28% 30% 26% 40% 40%
Bad 48 53 45 50 52 46 52 39 39
DK/NA 22 23 18 25 20 24 22 21 22

Cont’d

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11. (cont’d) Do you think Governor Paterson running for governor in 2010 would be good or
bad for other Democrats running for election in New York State?

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Good 33% 25% 26% 35% 26%

Bad 49 52 51 44 49
DK/NA 18 23 22 21 25

12. Democrats took control of the state senate this year for the first time in decades.
Would you like to see them continue control in 2010?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His

Yes 56% 10% 93% 46% 50% 61% 46% 92% 75%
No 35 82 4 37 42 29 43 6 16
DK/NA 9 8 4 17 8 10 11 2 9

UpState..... UpState
Urban Othr Total NYC Sub

Yes 52% 47% 48% 71% 47%

No 35 41 40 21 45
DK/NA 13 12 12 7 7