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Infosys
Performance highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 1QFY14 11,267 2,983 26.5 2,374 4QFY13 10,454 2,770 26.5 2,394 % chg (qoq) 7.8 7.7 (2)bp (0.8) 1QFY13 9,616 2,943 30.6 2,289 % chg (yoy) 17.2 1.4 (413)bp 3.7
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
`2,803 12 Months
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 160,934 (24,078) 0.8 3010/2,102 119,293 5 19,958 6,009 INFY.BO INFY@IN
Infosys reported healthy set of results for 1QFY2014. The companys dollar revenues grew by 2.7% qoq, aided by 4.1% qoq volume growth led by recovery in application development and consulting revenues. Infosys maintained its FY2014 USD revenue growth guidance at 6-10% as against our expectation of reducing it down to 6-8%, which is encouraging. We believe a healthy 1QFY2014 performance increases the probability of achieving/beating the top end of the guidance. Owing to the recent sharp run up in the companys stock price, we maintain our Neutral rating. Quarterly highlights: For 1QFY2014, Infosys reported revenue of US$1,991mn, up 2.7% qoq. Revenue in constant currency (CC) terms came in at US$2,005mn, up 3.4% qoq. In INR terms, revenue came in at `11,267cr, up 7.8% qoq. The companys EBITDA and EBIT margin inched up slightly by 2bp and 9bp qoq to 26.5% and 23.6%, respectively as the gains from rupee depreciation got absorbed due to negative impact of wage hike given to sales team from May 2013 and onsite wage hikes given in February 2013. The PAT was held up at `2,374, down 0.8% qoq. Outlook and valuation: The Management commentary indicates that the environment remains challenging and the company continues to see pricing pressure in large deals coming in re-bid market space because of competitive intensity. Management indicated that these deals are margin dilutive in the beginning but become margin neutral going ahead. Over FY2013-15E, we expect USD and INR revenue CAGR of 9.2% and 12.6%, respectively. Management indicated that the company has given ~8% offshore and ~3% onsite wage hike from 1 July, 2013 which will impact the operating margin negatively by ~300bp in 2QFY2014. The stock has ran up significantly today on the back of better than expected 1QFY2014 performance and at the CMP of `2,803, the stock is trading at 16.4x and 14.8x its FY2014E and FY2015E EPS, respectively. We value the stock at 15x FY2015E EPS of `189.4, which gives us a target price of `2820. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2011 27,501 20.9 6,823 9.7 32.6 119.5 23.5 5.9 25.0 25.9 5.2 16.0 FY2012 33,733 22.7 8,315 21.9 31.7 145.5 19.3 4.8 24.9 25.5 4.1 13.0 FY2013 40,352 19.6 9,421 13.3 28.6 164.9 17.0 4.0 23.7 22.5 3.4 11.8 FY2014E 47,001 16.5 9,785 3.9 26.2 171.3 16.4 3.3 20.4 20.0 2.8 10.5 FY2015E 51,196 8.9 10,816 10.5 26.4 189.4 14.8 2.9 19.3 19.0 2.4 9.1
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 16.0 18.3 39.6 26.1
3m 9.4 22.1
Ankita Somani
+91 22-39357800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
1QFY14 11,267 7,000 4,267 1,284 2,983 319 2,664 577 3,241 867 2,374 41.5 37.9 26.5 23.6 20.0
4QFY13 10,454 6,494 3,960 1,190 2,770 308 2,462 674 3,136 742 2,394 41.9 37.9 26.5 23.6 21.5
% chg (qoq) 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.7 3.6 8.2 3.3 16.8 (0.8) (0.8) (2)bp 9bp (147)bp
1QFY13 9,616 5,560 4,056 1,113 2,943 250 2,693 476 3,169 880 2,289 40.1 42.2 30.6 28.0 22.7
% chg (yoy) 17.2 25.9 5.2 15.4 1.4 27.6 (1.1) 2.3 (1.5) 3.7 3.7 (431)bp (413)bp (436)bp (264)bp
FY2013 40,352 24,158 16,194 4,643 11,551 1,122 10,429 2,359 12,788 3,367 9,421 164.9 40.1 28.6 25.8 22.1
FY2012 33,733 18,877 14,856 4,147 10,709 931 9,778 1,904 11,683 3,368 8,315 145.5 44.0 31.7 29.0 23.3
% chg (yoy) 19.6 28.0 9.0 12.0 7.9 20.5 6.6 9.5 (0.0) 13.3 13.3 (391)bp (312)bp (314)bp (128)bp
5.8 4.4
(%)
1.8
3QFY13 Onsite
1QFY14
Service wise, revenue growth was led by consulting and systems integration, the revenue from which grew by 5.6% qoq. Revenue from one of the companys anchor service verticals - application development grew by 4.1% qoq, while revenues from application maintenance declined by 0.4% qoq. The company is again regaining focus on traditional bread and butter IT services which are a part of business operations. IMS, which has been showing robust traction in the past three quarters, posted negligible growth during 1QFY2014. Revenues from BPO and PES services grew by 0.8% and 2.7% qoq, respectively. Infosys BPO has been performing considerably well since the past few quarters and the Management has indicated at trying to draw ~US$1bn of revenue from it in the next two years from ~US$400mn currently.
(%)
% to revenue % growth qoq % growth yoy 61.0 15.7 19.3 7.0 8.4 5.1 3.2 2.3 33.6 5.4 3.7 0.5 1.7 4.1 (0.4) (0.1) 4.0 0.8 2.7 2.7 5.6 (2.7) (5.0) 28.4 8.3 4.3 4.9 20.5 15.0 18.3 3.9 (3.2) 27.7 0.6 (6.6) 89.4
Industry-wise, the revenue from financial services and insurance (FSI), the companys anchor industry vertical contributing 33.7% to revenue, grew by 2. 1% qoq, led by a 2.7% qoq growth in revenue from insurance. Revenues from banking and financial services vertical grew by 2.0%, qoq. In CC terms, revenue from FSI grew by 2.9% qoq. The Management indicated that business prospects will remain muted in the near term for discretionary spend in the FSI vertical. The spending from banks and financial institutions is coming from work related to risk compliance, cost cutting, customer centric applications, cloud and risk management. Also, the company is witnessing pricing challenges in this industry vertical in some of the large deals coming in. Manufacturing (contributed 22.5% to revenue) posted a 4.1% qoq revenue growth. In CC terms, revenue from this vertical grew by 4.5% qoq. The company is seeing IT spending coming in the manufacturing industry segment from clients in terms of work related to harmonizing processes and transformation to gain cost efficiency and simplicity. The Management indicated that budgets in manufacturing subsegments such as aerospace, auto and hi-tech are flat to marginally down. The company expects revenues from manufacturing to pick up in H2FY2014, as the large inventory pile up finishes off at the clients ends and production picks up. The retail, CPG and logistics (RCL) segment (contributed 24.7% to revenue) reported 6.2% qoq revenue growth and emerged as the primary growth driver for the company. Revenues from retail & CPG and transport & logistics grew by 5.4% and 2.7% qoq, respectively. In CC terms, the revenue from RCL grew by 6.7% qoq. In this industry segment, retail is gaining traction on account of spends related to digital commerce, digital marketing and clients targeting to go global. Modest growth from products and platforms is being seen from this industry. The energy utilities, communications & services (ECS) segment (contributed 19.1% to revenue) reported a 1.9% qoq decline in its revenues due to 3.2% and 6.1% qoq decline in revenues from energy & utilities and communication & services industries respectively. In energy and utilities, the Management indicated that barring oil and few utility companies, growth will remain subdued in the near-term. In CC terms, revenue from this segment declined by 0.6% qoq.
July 12, 2013
% to revenue 33.7 27.0 6.7 22.5 24.7 15.8 1.8 4.7 2.4 19.1 4.9 8.5 5.7
% growth qoq 2.1 2.0 2.7 4.1 6.2 5.4 2.7 0.6 29.8 (1.9) (3.2) (6.1) 6.5
% growth yoy 11.7 10.8 15.4 16.2 18.4 6.2 20.3 44.4 94.8 8.5 21.1 (4.4) 22.2
In terms of geographies, revenue growth was primarily led by emerging geographies (rest of the world), revenues from which grew by 6.5% in CC terms. Revenues from North America also grew at a decent rate of 5.0% qoq in CC terms. Revenue from Europe declined by 2.4% (CC terms) as Infosys closed few projects in that geography during the quarter.
6.5
(%)
5 0
5.0
6.5
(2.4)
3QFY13 Europe
1QFY14
With companys focus on improving the utilization level, utilization rate, including as well as excluding trainees, grew by 150bp and 200bp qoq to 72.4% and 75.9%, respectively.
(%)
71 69 67 67.2 65 1QFY13 2QFY13 Including trainees 3QFY13 4QFY13 Excluding trainees 69.6
1QFY14
Margin stable
The companys EBITDA and EBIT margin inched up slightly by 2bp and 9bp qoq to 26.5% and 23.6%, respectively. The gains from rupee depreciation in margin got absorbed due to negative impact of wage hike given to sales team from May 2013 of ~8% and onsite wage hikes given in February 2013. The Management indicated that the company has given ~8% offshore and ~3% onsite wage hike from 1 July, 2013 which will again impact the operating margin negatively by ~300bp in 2QFY2014.
(BP)
Client pyramid
Infosys added 66 new clients during the quarter, taking its total active client base to 836. The company witnessed addition of three clients in US$100mn-200mn revenue bracket. The company growth during the quarter was led by revenue growth from its top clients. Revenues from the top 1/5/10 clients grew by 11.3%/ 4.1%/ 2.7% qoq, respectively.
US$300mn plus
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment arguments
Guidance maintained: Infosys has maintained its FY2014 USD revenue growth guidance at 6-10%. The guidance range continues to remain wide due to economic uncertainty and is lower than the software industry body Nasscoms estimate of 12-14%. In INR terms, the company has given revenue guidance of 13-17% (assuming USD/INR rate at 59.39). The management opined that they are cautiously optimistic for the rest of the year. We believe a healthy 1QFY2014 performance increases the probability of achieving/beating the top end of the guidance. Post 1QFY2014 results, Infosys requires ~1.4% CQGR for the remaining quarters to meet its upper end of the guidance which we believe the company can possibly achieve.
July 12, 2013
(%)
Pricing pressure foreseen in near term: The Management commentary indicates that the environment remains challenging and the company continues to see pricing pressure in large deals coming in re-bid market space because of competitive intensity. Management indicated that these deals are margin dilutive in the beginning but become margin neutral going ahead. Over FY2013-15E, we expect USD and INR revenue CAGR of 9.2% and 12.6%, respectively. Operating margins to be under pressure: The company is now highly focused on growth and this may lead to sacrifice margins in the near term. The operating margin has got tailwind of rupee depreciation but it currently faces headwinds because of the following reasons 1) offshore as well as onsite wage hike effective from July 2013, 2) single digit margin profile of Lodestone, 3) pick up in onsite hiring and 4) pricing pressure seen for traditional IT services. Infosys posted stable margins during 1QFY2014 after five quarters of consecutive decline seen in the margins. In 2QFY2014, management indicated that wage hikes will impact the companys operating margin by ~300 on a sequential basis. Going ahead, we expect EBIT margin of Infosys to decline to 23.4% and 23.6% for FY2014 and FY2015, respectively from 25.8% in FY2013. Over FY201315E, we expect EBIT CAGR of 7.5%.
(`)
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
10x
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
26x
22x
18x
14x
Apr-13
10
Company Background
Infosys is the second largest IT company in India, employing over 1,55,000 professionals. The company services more than 800 clients across various verticals, such as financial services, manufacturing, telecom, retail and healthcare. Infosys has the widest portfolio of service offerings amongst Indian IT companies, spanning across the entire IT service value chain - from traditional application development and maintenance to consulting and package implementation to products and platforms.
11
12
13
14
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value DuPont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/sales) Asset turnover ratio (sales/assets) Leverage ratio (assets/equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 3.6 78 4.2 84 3.7 86 4.1 78 4.1 78 25.9 56.1 25.0 25.5 56.3 24.9 22.5 45.8 23.7 20.0 45.4 20.4 19.0 45.7 19.3 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 25.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 24.9 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 23.7 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.9 1.1 20.4 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.8 1.1 19.3 119 134 35 477 146 162 15 585 165 184 42 696 171 194 40 838 189 214 40 981 23.5 20.9 5.9 1.2 5.2 16.0 4.6 19.3 17.3 4.8 0.5 4.1 13.0 3.6 17.0 15.2 4.0 1.5 3.4 11.8 3.0 16.4 14.4 3.3 1.4 2.8 10.5 2.4 14.8 13.1 2.9 1.4 2.4 9.1 1.9 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
15
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Infosys No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
16