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CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Ashiana Housing Ltd Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd

Detailed Report

Q2FY13 Results Update

Enhancing investment decisions

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a fivepoint scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade

5/5 4/5 3/5 2/5 1/5

Assessment
Excellent fundamentals Superior fundamentals Good fundamentals Moderate fundamentals Poor fundamentals

CRISIL Valuation Grade

5/5 4/5 3/5 2/5 1/5

Assessment
Strong upside (>25% from CMP) Upside (10-25% from CMP) Align (+-10% from CMP) Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP) Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

About CRISIL Limited

CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India's leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks and leading corporations.

About CRISIL Research

CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgments and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macro economy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists.

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Analyst Disclosure
Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company.

Disclaimer:
This Company-commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd. (CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / report is subject to change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The subscriber / user assume the entire risk of any use made of this data / report. CRISIL especially states that, it has no financial liability whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this report. This report is for the personal information only of the authorised recipient in India only. This report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.

YEARS

Ashiana Housing Ltd

New launches expected to boost bookings in H2FY13
Fundamental Grade Valuation Grade Industry 4/5 (Superior fundamentals) 4/5 (CMP has upside) Real Estate Management & Development

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November 07, 2012 Fair Value CMP CFV MATRIX

Excellent Fundamentals

Rs 205 Rs 172

Ashiana Housing Ltds (Ashianas) Q2FY13 results were in line with CRISIL Researchs expectations. A change in the accounting methodology - to possession-based from percentage completion - led to 50% y-o-y decline in revenues. EBITDA margin declined to 18.6% from 31.1% in Q2FY12 as the company had certain fixed costs and revenue recognition was lower. With the likely growth in H2FY13 revenues, we expect EBITDA margin to improve. Owing to decline in revenues and EBITDA margin, PAT declined 51% y-o-y to Rs 71 mn. The land conversion approval process in Rajasthan, which was at a standstill for the past one year, is showing signs of traction. This is expected to boost Ashianas future project pipeline about 6.7 mn sq ft of projects (total of 9.6 mn sq ft) are awaiting land conversion approvals in Rajasthan. We retain our earnings estimates and the fundamental grade of 4/5. Limited availability of inventory impacted bookings and construction Limited availability of saleable and buildable inventory impacted bookings and construction during the quarter. We have already factored the same in our projections. Bookings declined 30% y-o-y to 0.34 mn sq ft but were up 13% q-o-q due to better traction in Utsav Jaipur and Utsav Lavasa projects. During the quarter, the company also launched a 0.13 mn sq ft premium housing project in Bhiwadi (Rajasthan) Tree House Residences where 0.04 mn sq ft is already booked. With contribution from the Tree House project and rise in bookings from other high-value projects such as Utsav Lavasa and Rangoli Gardens (Jaipur), realisations grew 31% y-o-y and 11% q-o-q to Rs 2,727 per sq ft. 1.1 mn sq ft project in Jaipur received approval, launch expected in H2FY13 The Jaipur-based Gulmohar Gardens (1.1 mn sq ft) project got approval under Section 90A (new conversion law) of the Rajasthan Land Revenue Act. We expect the project to be launched in H2FY13. Since the past one year, the land conversion process in Rajasthan was at a standstill following the Rajasthan High Courts instruction to the government to regulate unauthorised constructions. The Rajasthan government has recently started approving land conversion requests as per the new law, which is aimed at regulating growth as per the master plan 2025. Ashiana is currently awaiting land conversion approval for 6.7 mn sq ft of projects in Bhiwadi. Besides, a 0.4 mn sq ft project is expected to be launched in H2FY13 in Jamshedpur (Jharkhand). Pre-tax operating cash flows declined, balance sheet allows further land acquisition Due to decline in construction and bookings, pre-tax operating cash flow of Rs 114 mn was lower in Q2FY13 compared to Rs 265 mn in Q1FY13 and Rs 412 mn in Q2FY12. As of September 2012, Ashiana has total cash balance of Rs 1,042 mn which allows the company to acquire additional land and enhance its projects pipeline. Reiterate our fair value estimate of Rs 205; CMP has upside We continue to use the net asset value method to value Ashiana and reiterate our fair value of Rs 205 per share. At the current market price of Rs 172, the valuation grade is 4/5.

Fundamental Grade

5 4 3 2 1

Poor Fundamentals

Valuation Grade
Strong Downside Strong Upside

KEY STOCK STATISTICS

NIFTY/SENSEX NSE/BSE ticker Face value (Rs per share) Shares outstanding (mn) Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) Enterprise value (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 52-week range (Rs)/(H/L) Beta Free float (%) Avg daily volumes (30-days) Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 5724/18817 ASHIANA/ASHIHOU 10 18.6 3,197/59 3,056/57 185/128 1.4 33.1% 4,113 0.7

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Dec-11 Mar-12 FII Jun-12 Sep-12 Others 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 66.9% 33.7% 0.2% 33.7% 0.2% 33.5% 0.4% 33.3% 0.6%

KEY FORECAST
(Rs mn) Operating income EBITDA Adj net income Adj EPS-Rs EPS growth (%) Dividend yield (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY10 1,140 399 363 20.1 26.8 0.9 32.6 32.1 8.6 2.4 7.6 FY11 1,396 441 429 23.1 15.0 1.0 26.9 28.2 7.4 1.8 6.2 FY12 2,417 826 696 37.4 62.0 1.3 36.7 33.5 4.6 1.3 3.1 FY13E 1,372 532 426 22.9 (38.8) 1.3 18.2 16.4 7.5 1.1 4.2 FY14E 1,497 568 485 26.1 13.9 1.5 17.5 16.1 6.6 1.0 1.4

Promoter

PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKET

Returns 1-m Ashiana NIFTY -1% 0% 3-m 9% 8% 6-m 1% 13% 12-m -3% 8%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT
Mohit Modi (Director) Ravi Dodhia Bhaskar Bukrediwala Client servicing desk +91 22 3342 3561 clientservicing@crisil.com mohit.modi@crisil.com ravi.dodhia@crisil.com bhaskar.bukrediwala@crisil.com

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Q2FY13 Results Summary (Consolidated)

(Rs mn) Net sales Raw materials cost Raw materials cost (% of net sales) Employees cost Other expenses EBITDA EBITDA margin Depreciation EBIT Interest and finance charges Operating PBT Other Income PBT Tax PAT Adj PAT Adj PAT margin No of equity shares (mn) Adj EPS (Rs) Source: Company, CRISIL Research Q2FY13 283 157 55.5% 36 37 53 18.6% 6 46 6 41 40 80 9 71 71 25.2% 18.6 3.8 Q1FY13 307 158 51.5% 31 26 92 30.1% 6 86 5 81 26 106 17 89 89 29.0% 18.6 4.8 Q2FY12 567 312 55.0% 40 39 176 31.1% 6 170 4 167 10 177 31 146 146 25.7% 18.6 7.8 q-o-q (%) (8.0) (0.8) 399bps 17.1 45.1 (43.2) -1152bps 1.6 (46.5) 1.9 (49.7) 55.7 (24.4) (46.5) (20.1) (20.1) -383bps 0.1 (20.2) y-o-y (%) (50.2) (49.7) 51bps (9.2) (5.7) (70.2) -1250bps 8.9 (72.9) 45.4 (75.6) 291.6 (54.6) (70.1) (51.3) (51.3) -57bps 0.1 (51.3) 1HFY13 589 315 53% 67 63 145 24.6% 13 132.2 11 121 65 187 26 160 160 27.2% 18.6 8.6 1HFY12 970 508 52% 71 73 317 32.7% 11 305.7 8 298 33 331 54 276 276 28.5% 18.6 14.9 y-o-y (%) (39.2) (38.1) 97bps (5.4) (14.5) (54.3) -812bps 11.4 (56.8) 41.2 (59.3) 98.6 (43.6) (51.5) (42.1) (42.1) -134bps 0.1 (42.1)

Area constructed declined q-o-q

(lakh sq ft) 5.0 4.0 -1% 3.0 2.0 -41% 1.0 0.0 2.4 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.7 2.8 2.7 -60% -40% -11% -4% 34% 21% 21% 18% -4% 0% -20% 20% 40%

Bookings grew 14% q-o-q

(lakh sq ft) 6 24% 5 4% 4 3 2 1 3.4 0 3.1 3.8 3.8 4.8 4.2 5.0 3.0 3.4 -70% -40% -10% 1% -12% -10% -30% -50% 27% 18% 14% 30% 10% 50%

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Equivalent area constructed

q-o-q growth (RHS)

Area booked

q-o-q growth (RHS)

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Q2FY13

Ashiana Housing Ltd

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Jaipur and Bhiwadi contributed 80% to total bookings

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 37% 38% 43% 44% 47% 13% 7% 5% 16% 4% 6% 10% 11% 2% 14% 7% 10% 5% 1% 38% 36% 34% 35% 37% 30% 9% 10% 30% 9% 14% 3% 62% 51% 44% 66% 10% 12% 13% 3% 14% 5% 12% 3%

Pre-tax operating cash flow declined in Q2FY13

(Rs mn) 500 412 400 320 300 232 200 133 100 114 265

Q2FY11

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

0 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Pre-tax operating cash flow

Jaipur

Lavasa

Jodhpur

Jamshedpur

Bhiwadi

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Shift in accounting method impacted revenues

(Rs mn)
1,000 800 600 18.6 400 200 284 0 256 539 402 567 539 903 307 283 31.0 32.7 42.5 35.0 31.1 36.2 32.3 30.1

Decline in revenues and EBITDA margin led to lower PAT

(%)
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

(Rs mn)
300 28.0 250 200 150 28.3 25.7 31.5 32.4 28.3 29.5 29.0 25.2

(%)
35 30 25 20 15

100 50 80 0 72 170 130 146 153 267 89 71

10 5 0

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-10

Dec-11

Jun-11

Jun-12

Jun-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-11

Sep-10

Sep-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Revenue

EBITDA margin (RHS)

PAT

PAT margin (RHS)

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Share price movement

120 100

Fair value movement since initiation

(Rs)
250 200

Sep-12
('000)
300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Sep-10

Sep-11

80 60 40 20 0 150 100 50 0

Sep-12

May-11

May-12

Jul-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Feb-12

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-10

Dec-10

Nov-11

Dec-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Dec-09

Nov-08

Nov-10

Ashiana

Sep-09

NIFTY

Sep-11

Nov-12

Jan-08

Jun-09

Jun-11

Feb-09

Feb-11

Apr-08

Apr-10

Apr-12

Total Traded Quantity(RHS)

CRISIL Fair Value

Sep-12

Jun-11

Jun-12

-Indexed to 100 Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

Oct-12
Ashiana

Jul-08

Jul-10

Jul-12

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Valuation

Grade: 4/5

We continue to value Ashiana by the net asset value method and retain our fair value of Rs 205 per share. At the current market price of Rs 172, the valuation grade is 4/5. We continue to value the land parcels at cost where projects are not yet conceptualised due to approval delays.

One-year forward P/E band

(Rs) 250 200 150 100 50 0

One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

(Rs mn) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

Jul-08

Jul-10

Jul-08

Jul-10

Jul-12

Feb-09

Feb-09

Feb-11

Feb-11

Apr-08

Apr-10

Apr-12

Apr-08

Apr-10

Nov-08

Dec-09

Nov-10

Dec-11

Apr-12

Jul-12
5x

Dec-11

Dec-09

Nov-08

Nov-10

Nov-12

Ashiana

2x

3x

4x

5x

6x

EV

2x

3x

4x

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

P/E premium / discount to Nifty

0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% -100%

P/E movement
(Times) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -1 std dev +1 std dev

Jul-08

Jul-10

Feb-09

Feb-11

Apr-08

Apr-10

Nov-08

Dec-09

Nov-10

Dec-11

Apr-12

Jul-12

Nov-08

Dec-09

Nov-10

Dec-11

Nov-12

Premium/Discount to NIFTY

Median premium/discount to NIFTY

1yr Fwd PE (x)

Median PE

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

Nov-12

Sep-09

Feb-09

Feb-11

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-11

Jul-08

Jul-10

Jul-12

Jan-08

Jun-09

Jan-08

Jun-09

Jun-11

Jun-11

Apr-08

Apr-10

Apr-12

Nov-12

Sep-09

Sep-09

Sep-11

Sep-11

Jan-08

Jun-09

Jan-08

Jun-09

Jun-11

Jun-11

Ashiana Housing Ltd

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CRISIL IER reports released on Ashiana Housing Ltd

Fundamental Date 03-Nov-10 11-Feb-11 06-Jun-11 08-Aug-11 15-Nov-11 07-Dec-11 03-Feb-12 09-Jul-12 30-Jul-12 07-Nov-12 Nature of report Initiating coverage Q3FY11 result update Q4FY11 result update Q1FY12 result update Q2FY12 result update Detailed report Q3FY12 result update Q4FY12 result update Q1FY13 result update Q2FY13 result update grade 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 Fair value Rs 220 Rs 220 Rs 220 Rs 195 Rs 195 Rs 205 Rs 205 Rs 205 Rs 205 Rs 205 Valuation grade 5/5 5/5 5/5 5/5 4/5 5/5 5/5 4/5 5/5 4/5 CMP (on the date of report) Rs 166 Rs 115 Rs 131 Rs 150 Rs 164 Rs 149 Rs 161 Rs 173 Rs 160 Rs 172

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Annexure: Financials
Income statement
(Rs m n) Operating incom e EBITDA EBITDA m argin Depreciation EBIT Interest Operating PBT Other income Exceptional inc/(exp) PBT Tax provision Minority interest PAT (Reported) Less: Exceptionals Adjusted PAT FY10 1,140 399 35.0% 15 384 11 373 66 5 444 76 368 5 363 FY11 1,396 441 31.6% 20 421 7 414 145 9 568 130 439 9 429 FY12 2,417 826 34.2% 25 802 29 773 71 (0) 844 149 696 (0) 696 FY13E 1,372 532 38.8% 26 506 26 480 88 568 142 426 426 FY14E 1,497 568 37.9% 27 541 10 531 116 647 162 485 485

Balance Sheet
(Rs m n) Liabilities Equity share capital Reserves Minorities Net w orth Convertible debt Other debt Total debt Deferred tax liability (net) Total liabilities Assets Net fixed assets Capital WIP Total fixed assets Investm ents Current assets Inventory Sundry debtors Loans and advances Cash & bank balance Marketable securities Total current assets Total current liabilities Net current assets Intangibles/Misc. expenditure Total assets FY10 181 1,117 1,298 80 80 11 1,389 290 136 426 499 685 17 187 161 1,051 587 463 1 1,389 FY11 186 1,564 1,750 7 7 32 1,789 415 5 420 686 751 29 142 382 81 1,385 702 683 0 1,789 FY12 186 2,211 2,397 218 218 31 2,646 436 0 436 498 1,240 55 279 359 491 2,423 715 1,708 4 2,646 FY13E 186 2,600 2,786 147 147 32 2,965 461 0 461 498 1,646 63 321 697 415 3,143 1,141 2,002 4 2,965 FY14E 186 3,043 3,229 (0) (0) 32 3,261 459 0 459 498 1,651 73 369 1,969 415 4,477 2,177 2,300 4 3,261

Ratios
FY10 Grow th Operating income (%) EBITDA (%) Adj PAT (%) Adj EPS (%) Profitability EBITDA margin (%) Adj PAT Margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) RoIC (%) Valuations Price-earnings (x) Price-book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) Dividend payout ratio (%) Dividend yield (%) B/S ratios Inventory days Creditors days Debtor days Working capital days Gross asset turnover (x) Net asset turnover (x) Sales/operating assets (x) Current ratio (x) Debt-equity (x) Net debt/equity (x) Interest coverage 23.9 78.3 26.8 26.8 FY11 22.5 10.6 18.4 15.0 FY12 73.1 87.4 62.0 62.0 FY13E (43.2) (35.6) (38.8) (38.8) FY14E 9.1 6.7 13.9 13.9

35.0 31.8 32.1 32.6 75.9

31.6 30.8 28.2 26.9 82.6

34.2 28.8 33.5 36.7 65.0

38.8 31.0 16.4 18.2 30.9

37.9 32.4 16.1 17.5 48.9

Cash flow
(Rs m n) Pre-tax profit Total tax paid Depreciation Working capital changes Net cash from operations Cash from investm ents Capital expenditure Investments and others Net cash from investm ents Cash from financing Equity raised/(repaid) Debt raised/(repaid) Dividend (incl. tax) Others (incl extraordinaries) Net cash from financing Change in cash position Closing cash FY10 439 (70) 15 (198) 186 (104) (92) (195) 68 (33) 5 40 31 161 FY11 559 (109) 20 83 554 (13) (269) (282) 5 (73) (38) 55 (50) 221 382 FY12 844 (150) 25 (639) 80 (45) (221) (266) 211 (49) 0 163 (23) 359 FY13E 568 (141) 26 (31) 422 (52) 76 24 (71) (48) 11 (108) 339 697 FY14E 647 (162) 27 974 1,486 (25) (25) (147) (54) 13 (189) 1,272 1,969

8.6 2.4 7.6 2.8 7.6 0.9

7.4 1.8 6.2 2.1 7.4 1.0

4.6 1.3 3.1 1.1 6.0 1.3

7.5 1.1 4.2 1.7 9.9 1.3

6.6 1.0 1.4 0.6 9.9 1.5

390 195 6 102 3.4 4.0 3.0 1.8 0.1 (0.1) 36.5

327 210 8 61 3.4 4.0 3.3 2.0 0.0 (0.3) 64.0

313 142 9 138 4.8 5.7 5.6 3.4 0.1 (0.3) 28.0

740 448 18 254 2.5 3.1 3.1 2.8 0.1 (0.3) 19.3

670 805 19 (22) 2.5 3.3 3.3 2.1 (0.0) (0.7) 56.7

Quarterly financials
(Rs m n) Net Sales Change (q-o-q) EBITDA Change (q-o-q) EBITDA m argin PAT Adj PAT Change (q-o-q) Adj PAT m argin Adj EPS Q2FY12 567 41% 176 25% 31% 146 146 12% 26% 7.8 Q3FY12 539 -5% 174 -1% 32% 153 153 5% 28% 8.2 Q4FY12 903 68% 327 88% 36% 267 267 75% 30% 14.3 Q1FY13 307 -66% 92 -72% 30% 89 89 -67% 29% 4.8 Q2FY13 283 -8% 53 -43% 19% 71 71 -20% 25% 3.8

Per share
Adj EPS (Rs) CEPS Book value Dividend (Rs) Actual o/s shares (mn) FY10 20.1 20.9 71.8 1.6 18.1 FY11 23.1 24.2 94.0 1.7 18.6 FY12 37.4 38.7 128.8 2.3 18.6 FY13E 22.9 24.3 149.7 2.3 18.6 FY14E 26.1 27.5 173.5 2.6 18.6

Source: CRISIL Research

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CRISIL Research Team
President
Mukesh Agarwal CRISIL Research +91 22 3342 3035 mukesh.agarwal@crisil.com

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