MEMORANDUM To: From: Date: Re: Interested Parties Guy Cecil, Executive Director of the DSCC Wednesday, July

24, 2013 State of the Senate Map

Like 2012, Democrats inherited a difficult map this cycle, but over the last seven months we have seen increasing signs that we can hold our majority despite the circumstances. Democratic incumbents have built strong campaign organizations with top tier staff and are dramatically outraising Republicans. Weve recruited strong candidates that put Kentucky and Georgia in play. Now the public polls are confirming we are playing offense in red states for the second consecutive cycle. Unlike the Republicans, we do not have a single primary in any competitive state. We continue to expand our financial, technological, and field advantages over an NRSC struggling to keep pace.

Meanwhile, Republicans have not missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. National Republicans have failed to put any blue or purple state into play, and find themselves mired in divisive primaries that pit Tea Party conservatives against establishment Republicans favored by the Washington elite. We are seven months into the cycle, and despite their rhetoric, Republicans find themselves held hostage by the far right of their party. The most competitive races in the country today are the four incumbents in North Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana; Georgia, where a right wing primary, Michelle Nunns strong candidacy and changing demographics make this a battleground contest; and Kentucky, where Alison Lundergan Grimes is tied with Mitch McConnell according to the latest polling. Republicans must essentially sweep these states, winning five of the six, in order to win the majority. Remember that only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection in the last decade, and now Republicans need to defeat three in one year. That's difficult for a party that has proven particularly good at losing Senate races the last five years. Certainly a lot can and will change. Democrats fully expect to compete in West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota, and Republicans said this week that they think they can win in Hawaii, New Mexico, and Oregon.

When you look at the most competitive races in the country, the most striking disparity between Republicans and Democrats is that Democrats are united behind a candidate and already positioning themselves for a general election, while Republicans have failed to unite the party behind a single candidate. Their candidates, their message, and their ideology are out of touch. Georgia: This is likely the craziest primary in the country, and the one most likely to give Republicans major heart ache. The six-way race has already turned into a right wing circus that is likely to end with an August run-off that produces another Todd Akin extremist. Michelle Nunn brings to the race the experience of a CEO, a career devoted to service, and deep working relationships with many Republicans in Georgia going back generations. In the last 48 hours, weve seen why Michelle Nunns independent message and strong record will make this a top tier state. Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes is tied with Mitch McConnell, according to the latest polling, and now the nations least popular Senator, McConnell, faces a Tea Party challenge from Kentucky businessman Matt Bevin. Bevin has already bought airtime against McConnell, who had a 28% reelect according to DSCC polling from earlier this year. McConnell is so worried that recent news reports suggest he threatened and bribed Bevin to withdraw from the race. Ignore the rhetoric coming form the other side and look at the facts. Nearly $2 million has already been spent or reserved on TV in this race, because it is a race Grimes can win. Alaska: Tea Party darling Joe Miller is running against the Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell, who appears to be the NRSC pick. Treadwell has raised only $180,000 since launching his committee in December. Miller holds a two to one cash advantage over Treadwell. Add them both up, and they have less than one fourth of Senator Mark Begichs haul. North Carolina: The NRSC attempt to anoint House Speaker Thom Tillis as the chosen one has been an unmitigated disaster. Tillis candidacy has imploded with pay-to-play scandals, absenteeism, an out-of-control legislature, and weak fundraising numbers. NRSC operatives have reportedly made other trips to the state to recruit State Senate President Phil Berger and Congresswoman Renee Ellmers. Tea party candidate & OBGYN Greg Brannon is already running, and conservative Rev. Mark Harris is also reportedly planning to run. Senator Hagan leads all potential challengers by double digits, according to Public Policy Polling from this month. Louisiana: Retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness is challenging Congressman Bill Cassidy, who has been heavily criticized by powerhouse conservative groups like the Club For Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund. Mannes has already met with Senator Ted Cruz and other conservative groups soliciting support. You should expect others to get in this race. The jungle primary in Louisiana will ensure this race stays messy on the Republican side right up until Election Day. Meanwhile, Mary Landrieu has proven time and time again, she has the reputation for toughness and independence needed to win. And she has nearly $5 million to start her race. Arkansas: While Republicans still do not have an announced candidate, Senator Pryor has already built a strong campaign organization in the state and amassed $4 million for his reelection. He has strong name ID and favorable rating with a record to match. Republicans will regret the day they started recruiting an inexperienced, right-wing Congressman who wasnt sworn in before planning a run for the Senate. Just ask Rick Berg.

Iowa: The Iowa Republican primary is an absolute mess with a roster of Tea Party, right wing candidates who will beat up on each other, while Bruce Braley builds an organization and raises money. Givens Bruces record of winning tough races, it is no wonder that many of the NRSCs top recruits declined to run against him. Michigan: National Republicans failed to get Congressman Mike Rogers into the race. Now theyre working overtime to keep Tea Party superstar Justin Amash out as well. However, that doesnt begin to solve their headaches here. National Republicans are reportedly not supporting Terri Lynn Land and are trying to recruit other candidates to get into the race against her. There are also Republican primaries currently unfolding in Minnesota, Colorado, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and the GOP currently has no candidates in Arkansas, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, and Hawaii. Divisive primaries; inferior campaigns; and ill-prepared, ideologically out of touch candidates proved to be part of Republicans undoing in a number of states last cycle. Not only did Republican primaries produce extreme candidates such as Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock, but also weakened establishment candidates like Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin. Republicans have failed to learn the lessons of 2012. They find themselves ill-equipped to expand the map, leaving only a half dozen competitive states today. Republicans would have to win five of these six states in order to take the majority We know the history of mid-term elections and have seen what a tough map looks like. Just like 2012, we arent taking anything for granted. We will build strong, well-funded campaigns; recruit better candidates; expand our turnout operation; grow our technological advantage; and most importantly, make sure voters understand that this election is a choice between the two people who will appear on their ballots. Of course it remains very early for both parties, but right now the lay of the land favors Democrats keeping the majority in 2014.