David Cardenas Foundations: Asian Civil Paper 1

CHINAS FUTURE POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES

The article Chinas Future Population and Development Challenges, was written by Jianfa Shen. One of the big population growth and rapid urbanization in China. There hence will be absolutely increasing population pressure within the near future, perhaps in as few as like 40 years later. The population of only 542 million at the end of 1949 however population reached 1200 million in 1995. It means that rapid growth makes it difficult to raise the peoples living and is worth mentioning the worst case of population-food crisis. The fact is that many people died owing to the food short-age during that period. Im going to discuss the three main challenge crucial to Chinas future development: An agriculture-food challenge, an employment challenge, and an urbanization challenge. An agriculture-food challenge is one of main problem with expanding population about produce sufficient grain. The estimated production required for grain production per capita over the period 1950-1994. Generally, increasing steadily since 1950 as well as production per capita. The total increased from 132.13 billion kjilogrammes in 1950 to 446.24 billion kilogrammes by 1990, and increased from 239 to 390 kilogrammes over the

same period. The two exceptions: First, grain production reached a lower level in 1960 than preceding years. Secondly, production during recent years was unable to achieve steady growth and fluctuated about a total of 450 billion kilogrammes, with 1995 being an exceptionally high year. The really challenge is that population continues to grow over the next 40 years. Official target of 500 billion kilogrammes in the year 2000 has been set. Its need to reach 568 billion kilogrammes by 2020 and 595 billion by 2040. Is china will be able to meet this challenge? Absolutely no because need progress may help to augment grain production but decline in arable land. It was absolutely difficult to maintain the annual growth in production. In 1995, total of 0.62 million hectares of arable land were lost, which 0.39 million were owing to natural disasters and other causes. Housing and other constructions are consuming more and more arable land: land lost annually to state construction project increased from 0.07 million to 0.11 million hectares over the period 1991-1995. China has been very careful about the increasing grain imports and seeking rather to increase her domestic production. An employment challenge one of the main indicators of economic performance and also closely related to income distribution, welfare expenditure, poverty and social stability. Income and living standards of the rural population based economy were very low and large number of surplus rural laborers not fully utilized. Total number of employees in the township and village increased from 28 million in 1978 to 129 million by 1995. The

immense employment pressure is very clear. The population will increase form 732.42 million in 1995 to a peak of 955.42 million by the year 2020. 30 per cent increase in just 25 years, giving increase of 233 million laborers. That means the employment challenge is absolutely much greater. An urbanization challenge is a large number of towns and cities have emerged. China, urban population has double over the period 1978-1995 and the percentage living in urban areas has risen to 29.0. Dramatic expansion of the urban population over the past 16 years. The urban population will increase from 450 million in 1950 to 1123 million by 2040 The pPercentage of urban population will be raisedrise to 70 per cent by the year 2040. The fact is that rapid urbanization has already resulted in the decline of arable land available and essential to keep pace with the population growth. Currently, urban and rural settlements cover a total area of 18 million hectares. In the Lland use in small settlements are managed by various local governments, lend to use more land for housing than stipulated. Income is rising and the proportion declining. Need to review the process of land management and control the transfer of agricultural land to other uses. The urbanization strategies based on large, medium or small cities or towns also need to be evaluated from the land-use perspective and for the protection of arable land and environment. Medium-sized city may make significant savings in land and also avoid the severe problem of large cities.