AFSCME Polling Center

Statewide Survey of Arkansas Likely Voters Prepared for AFSCME Council July 23 27, 2013 N=729 +/- 4% N=370 =+/- 5% Democr atic Pr imar y

Hi, my name is ________ and I'm calling from Clark Research, a public opinion research firm. We're conducting a short political survey and we'd like to get your opinion. [I am not selling anything and your responses will be kept absolutely confidential.] First of all, I know that it is a long way off but in 2014 the Democratic and Republican parties will be holding Primary Elections to nominate candidates for United States Senate, Congress and other offices. Do you plan to vote in the Democratic Primary Election or the Republican Primary Election, or will you not vote in either of the Primaries? Q1 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Democratic Primary Republican Primary Other Primary 4 Not voting in a Primary Declined 15 % 35 35 10

And how likely are you to vote in the November 2014 General Election for U.S. Senate, Congress, Governor, U.S. Senate, Congress and other offices? Are you: [READ LIST] Q2 1) 2) 3) 4) Almost Certain Probably will Not going to vote Declined 1 82 15 2

Qsex (Sex by observation. Do not ask.) 1) Male 2) Female 45 55

Q3

Generally speaking would you say that things in Arkansas are headed in the right direction or are things pretty seriously off on the wrong track? % 1) 2) 3) 4) Right Direction Wrong Track 34 Neither/Unsure Declined 1 45 19

Q4

What do you consider to be the single most important problem facing Arkansas today that is, the one problem you are most concerned about? (DO NOT READ Wait for Response Press for a SINGLE issue) % A. Crime, Violence, Drugs B. Unemployment, Economy C. Immigration Reform D. Gay Marriage - Opposed E. Schools, Education F. Social Security G. Heath Care 9 H. Pro-Choice 0 I. Pro-Life 1 J. Roads, Traffic K. Gov Spending, Budget L. Taxes 3 M. Environment 1 N. Moral Decay, greed, sin O. Gun Rights 1 P. Other issue 12 Q. Declined/Unsure Total 3 38 1 2 10 1

1 5 2 10 100

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Next I am going to read the names of some people and things in politics and public life. As I read each one please tell me if you have a Very Favorable opinion of that person or thing, a Somewhat Favorable opinion, a Somewhat Unfavorable or a Very Unfavorable opinion of that person. If you dont know the name, just say so and we will move on. Okay the first name is
Very Favorable % Barack Obama Mike Beebe Mark Pryor Tom Cotton Mike Ross Bill Halter Republicans in Congress Democrats in Congress Government Employees Outsourcing public services to private companies Labor Unions 21 31 12 12 12 4 11 9 13 11 16 SW Favorable % 20 43 35 16 26 21 31 27 38 23 22 SW UNFavable % 8 11 19 9 9 10 18 24 19 18 21 Very UNFavorable % 48 7 15 13 7 8 31 33 15 27 31 Unsure % 1 8 17 50 45 54 8 6 12 18 1 Declined % 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 2 9 Total % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Arkansas will hold an election for United States Senator next year. Mark Pryor is the current United States Senator and has announced his candidacy for reelection. Tom Cotton the current Congressman from the 4th Congressional District in Arkansas and has been mentioned as an opponent. Q16 Please tell me, if the 2014 General election for United States Senate were held today and the candidates are [ READ LIST ROTATE] For whom would you vote? % 1) 2) 3) 4) Mark Pryor Tom Cotton Unsure Declined 43 35 18 3

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Q17 [IF Voting in Dem Primary] Arkansas will also hold an election for Governor next year. Former Congressman Mike Ross and former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter have both announced their candidacy for the Democratic nomination. Please tell me, if the 2014 Democratic Primary for Governor were held today, would you vote for: [Note. The N for this question is 370] % 1) 2) 3) 4) Mike Ross Bill Halter Unsure Declined 40 26 31 3

The next few questions are about a proposed constitutional amendment that may be on the ballot in Arkansas next year. This amendment would raise the minimum wage in Arkansas from $7.25 per hour to $8.50 per hour, and then adjust the minimum wage for inflation every year. If the election were held today, would you vote For or Against this amendment? Q18 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Definitely For 54 Probably For 19 Probably Against Definitely Against Unsure 4 7 16

Currently in Arkansas, employees who work for restaurants and receive tips are paid $2.63 per hour by their employer. The employee is expected to make up the difference between the $2.63 and the current minimum wage of $7.25 through tips from customers. $2.63 is only 36% of the current minimum wage of $7.25. If a constitutional amendment to raise the minimum wage also included a provision to require restaurants to pay their tipped employees the full minimum wage would you be more likely to vote FOR or AGAINST the constitutional amendment? Q19 1) 2) 3) 4) Likely to vote FOR Likely to vote AGAINST Unsure/No Difference Declined 1 69 22 9

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Q20 How about if the minimum wage amendment only required restaurants to pay their tipped employees 50% of the full minimum wage? Would you be more likely to vote FOR or AGAINST the constitutional amendment? % 1) Likely to vote FOR 53 2) Likely to vote AGAINST 35 3) Unsure/No Difference 10 4) Declined 2 Q21 Raising the minimum wage will hurt small businesses and cost jobs. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Q22 Strong Agree 23 SW Agree 20 SW Disagree 26 Strong Disagree Unsure 5

26

Raising the minimum wage is an effective way to fight poverty. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Strong Agree 37 SW Agree 26 SW Disagree 11 Strong Disagree Unsure 5

22

Q23

Raising the minimum wage will raise the cost of goods and services in Arkansas. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Strong Agree 41 SW Agree 33 SW Disagree 11 Strong Disagree Unsure 5

Q24

It is wrong for any American who works hard and plays by the rules to earn a wage so low that they live in poverty. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Strong Agree 56 SW Agree 15 SW Disagree 8 Strong Disagree Unsure 7

14

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Q25

If we increase the minimum wage, business will pass the increased labor cost on by raising prices. That will mostly hurt people on fixed incomes such as our senior citizens. % 1) Strong Agree 40 2) SW Agree 24 3) SW Disagree 16 4) Strong Disagree 13 5) Unsure 7 Raising the minimum wage in Arkansas is just the right thing to do. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Strong Agree SW Agree SW Disagree Strong Disagree Unsure 5 49 23 8 16

Q26

Next we will move on to a couple of other issues. Q27 Do you feel poverty in Arkansas is increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same? 1) 2) 3) 4) Increasing Decreasing Staying the Same Unsure 9 48 5 38

Now I will ask a few questions about health care policy and the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obama Care. Q28 If you knew that your United States Senator or Representative in Congress SUPPORTED the Affordable Care Act would it make you MORE likely to vote for them or LESS likely to Vote for them? [Caller, follow up: Would that be MUCH More/Less or only A LITTLE More/Less likely?] 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Much More Likely to vote for them A Little More Likely A little Less Likely Much Less likely Unsure 11 23 11 15 40

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Q29 Still talking about the Affordable Care Act. Lawmakers in Little Rock have passed a law called the Private Option that would use Federal money allocated for expanding Medicaid to, instead, purchase private health insurance and then resell it at a subsidized rate to 250,000 low-income Arkansans who make less than $15,415 per year. If you knew that your Senator or Representative in Little Rock supported the Private Option would it would it make you MORE likely to vote for them or LESS likely to Vote for them? % 1) Much More Likely to vote for them 22 2) A Little More Likely 18 3) A little Less Likely 13 4) Much Less likely 23 5) Neither - No difference 24

Q30

A group that is opposed to the Private Option plans to place a Referendum on the 2014 Ballot that would ask Arkansans to vote to Repeal (cancel) the Private Option law. Please tell me, if today were election-day, would you vote to repeal Private Option or would you vote to keep the Private Option law in Arkansas? 1) 2) 3) 4) Vote to Repeal Vote to Retain Unsure - No Diff Declined 5 32 40 23

The next few items are for analysis. Q31 Generally speaking, do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, Republican, or an Independent? 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Democrat 32 Ind Leans Dem Independent Ind Leans Rep Republican Unsure 4 7 18 12 25

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Q32

In terms of your political philosophy, would you say you are politically\ % 1) 2) 3) 4) Conservative Moderate 30 Liberal 13 Unsure DTS 52 5

Q33

Which of the following best describes your educational background? 1) 2) 3) 4) Some High School High School Grad Some College College Grad 3 23 29 44

Q34

How often do you attend Church or religious services? 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) More than once a week Weekly 35 2 - 3 Times Month Monthly 7 Holidays 4 Almost Never Never Attends Declined 2 19 10 14 10

Q35

Do you, or does anyone in your household, belong to a Union? 1) 2) 3) 4) Self 7 Someone else None 89 Declined 1 3

Q36

Were either of your parents a member of a labor Union? 1) Yes 24 2) No 73 3) Declined 3

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Q37

Do you have health insurance? % 1) Yes 2) No 90 10

Q38

If yes, is the health insurance provider by or through your employer or spouses employer? 1) Employer 66 2) Not through Employer 3) Declined 1 33

Q39

Please stop me when I get to your age group: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 18 - 24 7 25 - 34 10 35 - 44 11 45 - 54 15 55 - 64 27 65 or over

31

Q40

What is the occupation of the chief wage earner in your household? What does he or she do specifically? 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) White collar Blue collar Retired 36 Pink/Other Declined 2 30 25 7

Q41

Just for purposes of analysis, which of the following categories most closely corresponds to your total yearly household income? Just stop me when I reach the right category. Is it 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) Under $20,000 $20,000 to $30,000 $30,0000 to $40,000 $40,000 to $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 More than $75,000 Dont know/Refused 13 12 12 8 18 24 13

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Q42

To make sure we have a representative sample, could you tell me your ethnicity [or ethnic group]? Would you describe yourself as.. % 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) White 83 Black 10 Hispanic 1 Asian 0 American Indian Uns/Other/Declined

1 4

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME, AND GOOD NIGHT!!

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