Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.'s ("Pershing") contained in this presentation are
based on publicly available information. Pershing recognizes that there may be confidential
information in the possession of the companies discussed in the presentation (the
“Companies”) that could lead the Companies to disagree with Pershing’s conclusions.
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared
with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of
the Companies. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by
Pershing concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic,
competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for
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materials herein. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results
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This presentation should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any
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McDonald’s: Let’s Go Back in Time…
(1) Time period referenced is 2002 through the first half of 2003.
2
But McDonald’s Was Not a Restaurant Company…
McOpCo
22% McOpCo
48%
55%
52%
78%
________________________________________________
Note: Based on 2005A Reported financials. McOpCo contribution includes Other Brands. The analysis assumes that approximately 79% of the total G&A is allocated to Brand
McDonald’s business and 21% is allocated to McOpCo. Analysis excludes non-recurring expenses and other net operating expenses.
.
3
What Happened at McDonald’s
Since 2004, McDonald’s stock price has increased from approximately $23
to $61 because of its initiatives to (1) improve systemwide same-store sales,
(2) improve profitability at its Company-operated stores, (3) enhance the
financial transparency of its Brand business and (4) increase share
repurchases and dividends (1)
From 1/1/2004 – Current
$65
$60
$61
$55
$50
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
Jan-04 Nov-04 Sep-05 Aug-06 Jun-07 May-08
________________________________________________
$36
9
Relative Valuation
EV / 2008E EBITDA Multiples
12.0x
10.7x 10.6x
10.0x
10.0x
9.3x
8.9x
8.0x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x
WEN YUM MCD BKC SONC
Standalone
“Unfixed”
________________________________________________
Note: Source for comparable restaurant companies multiples is Capital IQ. As of 5/15/08. 10
.
Wendy’s Relative Stock Price Performance
140% 38.1%
QSR
130%
Peers (1)
120%
110%
100%
90%
(16.2%)
80%
Wendy’s
70%
60%
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 May-08
________________________________________________
(1) Market-Cap weighted index consisting of McDonald’s, Yum!, Burger King and Sonic.
11
Valuing Wendy’s Standalone
What is Wendy’s?
13
Wendy’s: A Brand Royalty and Real Estate Company
Brand
Wendy’s 7% OpCo
41% 93%
59%
Brand
Brand Wendy’s
Wendy’s
OpCo (Franchise and
Real Estate)
’08E EBITDA: $313mm ’08E EBITDA: $313mm
________________________________________________
Note: The analysis assumes that approximately 75% of total Wendy’s G&A is allocated to Brand Wendy’s business and 25% is allocated to OpCo. The analysis assumes that
rent is charged to OpCo at a 7.25% cap rate. The analysis excludes non-recurring expenses.
. 14
Brand Wendy’s: An Attractive Business
Current “for sale” prices of Wendy’s real estate (land and building)
City State Price (000) Sf Ft Price / Sf Ft Cap Rate Year Built
St. Augustine FL $1,481 2,690 $551 6.75% 1988
Charlotte NC $1,492 2,700 $553 6.80% NA
Killeen TX $1,504 2,833 $531 7.25% NA
Wace TX $1,284 2,833 $453 7.25% NA
Waco TX $1,310 2,833 $462 7.25% NA
Temple TX $917 2,431 $377 7.25% NA
Part Charlotte FL $1,645 2,473 $665 6.50% 1988
Saint Augustine FL $1,481 2,690 $551 6.75% 1988
Milwaukee WI $1,943 2,594 $749 6.90% 1984
Milwaukee WI $1,557 2,881 $540 7.60% 1985
Port Saint Lucie FL $1,530 2,965 $516 7.20% 1997
El Paso TX $945 2,669 $354 6.40% NA
Keego Harbor MI $750 2,697 $278 NA 1980
Farmington Hills MI $750 2,722 $276 NA 1979
Stone Mountain GA $1,324 2,782 $476 8.50% 1975
Source: Loopnet. 17
.
Valuing Wendy’s Owned Real Estate
$ in millions
OpCo Stores Owned Real Estate Value
Fee Simple Units (Owned land & building) 632
Unit Value $1.2mm
Value of Fee Simple Units $758
18
Wendy’s OpCo: Almost No Profitability
Based on the assumptions below, Wendy’s OpCo is operating at a 1%
EBITDA margin, adjusted for market rents and franchise fees. Franchised
Wendy’s restaurants are believed to be generating 600 bps of higher margin.
If Wendy’s company-operated restaurants could increase
profitability by 400bps, EBITDA would increase by approximately $86mm
$ in millions
Wendy's OpCo 2008E P&L "As is" "Fixed"
(1)
OpCo Sales $2,175 $2,175
Reported EBITDA after G&A allocation(2) $185 $185
Reported EBITDA margins (after G&A) 8.5% 8.5%
_______________________________________________
(1) Includes sales of sandwich buns and kids meal toys to franchisees.
400 bps
(2) Assumes ~$50mm, or roughly 25% of Wendy’s Consolidated 2008E G&A of $200mm is allocated to Wendy’s OpCo.
. 19
Wendy’s: Summing it Up
After appropriately valuing its high quality franchise and real estate
cash flows, even “unfixed” Wendy’s is worth $35 today. If the
Company improves its company-operated store margins, the
business is worth $42
$ in millions except per share data
"Unfixed" "Fixed" Valuation Valuation
08 EBITDA 08 EBITDA Multiple "Unfixed" "Fixed"
Franchise Business (1) $215 $215 10.5x $2,256 $2,256
Owned Real Estate (2) 76 76 1,044 1,044
Brand Wendy's $291 93% $291 $3,300 $3,300
OpCo 23 7% 109 7.0x 158 761
Equals: Total Value $313 100% $399 $3,459 $4,061
(3)
Net Debt ($335) ($335)
Equity Value $3,124 $3,727
Equity Value Per Share $35 $42
Premium to Current 25% 50%
_______________________________________________
(1) Franchise business segment includes approximately $18mm of rent income associated with real estate leased to Franchisees. All G&A associated with managing
real estate is allocated to the Franchise business for illustrative purposes.
(2) Owned real estate segment assumes a 7.25% cap rate and is based on assumptions detailed on page 18 of this presentation. Owned Real Estate EBITDA excludes
any G&A associated with managing real estate.
(3) Based on Q1 2008 balance sheet.
. 20
Valuing Wendy’s / Arby’s
Combination
Triarc’s Offer
f Triarc CEO, Roland Smith, will become the CEO of the pro forma
Company
(1) Based on Triarc’s Q1 2008 Balance sheet. Net debt includes Triarc’s $59mm of cash and cash equivalents, $18mm of restricted cash and
equivalents, and $97mm of long-term investments, the majority of which is an investment in Trian. Net debt excludes the value of Deerfield
REIT notes and Deerfield REIT common stock.
. 24
What Do Wendy’s Shareholders Get?
25
Wendy’s / Arby’s Combination
6.3x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x
Wendy’s
WEN Wendy’s
WEN Wendy’s
WEN YUM MCD BKC SONC
Standalone Combined Combined
with Arby’s with Arby’s
“Unfixed”
No Cost With Cost
Savings Savings
27
Valuing the Wendy’s / Arby’s Combination
Share price assuming various EV/ EBITDA multiples and cost saving levels
38.39048 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x
$120 $40 $43 $45 $48
Cost Savings 140 $42 $44 $47 $50
($ in mm)
160 $43 $46 $49 $52
180 $45 $48 $51 $54
Stock price returns assuming various EV/ EBITDA multiples and cost saving levels