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August 7, 2013
Bosch
Performance Highlights
Y/E Dec (` cr) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. PAT 2QCY13 2,307 363 15.7 252 2QCY12 2,178 329 15.1 247 % chg (yoy) 5.9 10.5 65bp 1.7 1QCY13 2,209 382 17.3 260 % chg (qoq) 4.4 (4.9) (155)bp (3.1)
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Auto Ancillary 26,100 (3,085) 0.2 9,590/8,182 1,296 10 18,733 5,542 BOSH.BO BOS@IN
`8,312 `9,096
12 Months
Bosch (BOS) reported in-line results for 2QCY2013. While the top-line grew at a better-than-expected rate of 5.9% yoy (4.4% qoq); EBITDA margins continued to remain under pressure (down 155bp sequentially) resulting in a muted growth in the bottom-line. We revise our CY2013 revenue estimates slightly downwards to factor in the continued slowdown in the domestic automotive industry. Further, due to higher tax-rate assumption, we revise downwards the CY2013 bottom-line estimate by 4.6%. Nevertheless, we expect the companys earnings growth to revive in CY2014 led by revival in the domestic automotive industry which has posted two years of muted growth. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock. In-line performance for 2QCY2013: BOS posted a healthy top-line growth of 5.9% yoy (4.4% qoq) to `2,307cr, ahead of our estimates of `2,188cr, driven by a strong exports growth of 14.1% yoy. The increase in net average realization due to price increases also aided the top-line performance. Domestic revenue however, reported a modest growth of 3.8% yoy as domestic automotive demand continued to remain weak following a challenging macroeconomic environment. While the automotive business segment registered a growth of 4.7% yoy, the non-automotive business segment grew by 11.8% yoy. On the operating front, the EBITDA margin declined 155bp sequentially to 15.7%, lower than our expectations of 16.8%. The performance was impacted due to the INR depreciation against the EUR and also due to increase in staff expenditure on account of annual salary hikes. Consequently, the operating profit declined 4.9% qoq to `363cr, in-line with our estimates of `367cr. Net profit for the quarter stood at `252cr (up 1.7% yoy but down 3.1% qoq), in-line with our estimate of `249cr. Outlook and valuation: We remain positive on the long term prospects of BOS due to its technological leadership and strong and diversified product portfolio; however, we expect the near-term performance of the company to remain subdued due to slowdown in the domestic automotive industry. At, `8,312 the stock is trading at 19.6x CY2014E earnings. We recommend Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `9,096.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 71.2 14.2 7.4 7.2
3m (4.8) (7.5)
CY2011 8,166 18.7 1,067 62.1 18.5 339.7 24.5 5.5 22.6 27.5 2.8 15.7
CY2012 8,659 6.0 874 (18.1) 15.6 278.3 29.9 4.7 15.7 18.3 2.5 17.2
CY2013E 9,301 7.4 1,067 22.1 16.8 339.8 24.5 4.1 16.6 18.6 2.3 14.4
CY2014E 10,895 17.1 1,328 24.5 18.0 423.1 19.6 3.5 17.6 20.8 1.9 11.2
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
2QCY13 2,307 729 31.6 307 13.3 544 23.6 365 15.8 1,944 363 15.7 0 86 90 366 366 15.9 115 31.3 252 252 10.9 31.4 80.2 80.2
2QCY12 2,178 741 34.0 248 11.4 495 22.7 366 16.8 1,850 329 15.1 0 76 89 342 342 15.7 94 27.6 247 247 11.4 31.4 78.8 78.8
% chg (yoy) 5.9 (1.7) 23.8 9.8 (0.3) 5.1 10.5 60.0 13.6 0.4 7.1 7.1 21.3 1.7 1.7
1QCY13 2,209 722 32.7 286 13.0 464 21.0 356 16.1 1,828 382 17.3 0 84 89 387 387 17.5 127 32.8 260 260 11.8 31.4
% chg (qoq) 4.4 0.9 7.1 17.3 2.5 6.4 (4.9) (9.0) (72.4) 2.6 0.5 (5.3) (5.3) (9.7) (3.1) (3.1)
1HCY13 4,516 1,450 32.1 593 13.1 1,008 22.3 721 16.0 3,772 745 16.5 0 171 179 753 753 16.7 242 32.1 511 511 11.3 31.4
1HCY12 4,473 1,456 32.5 497 11.1 1,021 22.8 694 15.5 3,668 806 18.0 0 140 157 822 822 18.4 239 29.1 583 583 13.0 31.4 185.8 185.8
% chg (yoy) 1.0 (0.4) 19.3 (1.3) 3.8 2.8 (7.6) 640.0 21.8 14.4 (8.4) (8.4) 1.1 (12.3) (12.3)
1.7 1.7
82.7 82.7
(3.1) (3.1)
162.9 162.9
(12.3) (12.3)
Healthy top-line growth aided by exports: For 2QCY2013, the top-line posted a healthy growth of 5.9% yoy (4.4% qoq) to `2,307cr, ahead of our estimates of `2,188cr, driven by a strong growth in exports by 14.1% yoy. The increase in net average realization due to price increases and growth in after market segment (up 4.5% yoy) also aided the top-line performance. Domestic revenue however, reported a modest growth of 3.8% yoy as domestic automotive demand continued to remain weak following challenging macroeconomic environment. While the automotive business segment registered a growth of 4.7% yoy, the non-automotive business segment grew by 11.8% yoy.
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2QCY13 2,034 274 2,308 1 2,307 312 (1) 312 0 (55) 366 15.4 (0.2) 13.5
2QCY12 1,943 245 2,188 9 2,178 276 8 284 0 (58) 342 14.2 3.2 13.0
% chg (yoy) 4.7 11.8 5.5 5.9 13.3 9.9 60.0 (6.4) 7.1 116bp -
1QCY13 1,905 306 2,211 2 2,209 302 40 342 0 (45) 387 15.9 13.1 15.5
% chg (qoq) 6.8 (10.6) 4.4 (28.2) 4.4 3.4 (8.9) (72.4) 22.1 (5.4) (50)bp -
1HCY13 3,939 580 4,519 3 4,516 614 40 654 0 (99) 754 15.6 6.9 14.5
1HCY12 3,953 520 4,473 27 4,446 699 35 734 0 (88) 822 17.7 6.7 16.4
% chg (yoy) (0.3) 11.5 1.0 1.6 (12.1) 13.4 (10.9) 640.0 12.4 (8.3) (208)bp 11.3
7.7
2,060
1,991
2,029
2,295
2,178
2,054
2,132
2,209
2,307
0.0 (5.0)
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY12
3QCY12
4QCY12
1QCY13
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY12
3QCY12
4QCY12
1QCY13
2QCY13
EBITDA margin contracts sequentially to 15.7%: On the operating front, the EBITDA margin declined 155bp sequentially to 15.7%, lower than our expectations of 16.8%. The performance was impacted due to the INR depreciation against the EUR and also due to increase in staff expenditure on account of annual salary hikes. Consequently, the operating profit declined 4.9% qoq to `363cr, in-line with our estimates of `367cr. On a yoy basis though, the EBITDA margin improved 65bp primarily on account of softening of raw-material prices and decline in other expenditure (aided by cost reduction initiatives) although the same was partially offset by a sharp increase in employee expenditure and unfavorable currency movement. Net profit for the quarter stood at `252cr (up 1.7% yoy but down 3.1% qoq), in-line with our estimates of `249cr.
August 7, 2013
2QCY13
52.7
54.7
56.8
57.6
53.9
53.7
55.2
279
288
281
336
247
203
172
260
50 0
252 2QCY13
2.0 0.0
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY12
3QCY12
4QCY12
2QCY11
3QCY11
4QCY11
1QCY12
2QCY12
3QCY12
4QCY12
1QCY13
2QCY13
August 7, 2013
1QCY13
Investment arguments
Technology intensive industry supplemented by high bargaining power: We estimate BOS to post an ~12% CAGR in its top-line and ~23% CAGR in its bottom-line over CY2012-14. The company enjoys high margins in the auto component segment due to strong entry barriers and its dominant position in the market. Nonetheless, due to decline in utilization levels (~70-75% across plants) and higher INR depreciation, the company witnessed a significant 290bp contraction in operating margins in CY2012. Going ahead, we expect the demand environment to improve in CY2014, which will improve utilization levels and thus the margins. Further, the benefits of cost reduction initiatives will also accrue to the company in CY2013. As a result, we expect margins to improve by ~120bp in CY2013 to 16.8%. Dependent on favorable CV cycle for growth: BOS's prospects are largely derived from demand arising in the CV and tractor segments. While the slowdown in the CV segment has continued YTD in CY2013, the tractor segment has witnessed a strong revival following better monsoon and expectations of better kharif crop. We expect the CV cycle to reverse in FY2015 which is expected to revive companys revenue and earnings growth. Further, greater visibility on newer growth opportunities is emerging for the company, following its investments in new and innovative technologies such as CRS and gasoline systems. We believe the company will continue to enjoy premium valuations, owing to strong parental focus and increasing long-term growth opportunities in the Indian market, facilitated by changes in emission norms. Moreover, BOS has been a consistent performer with strong cash flows in the Indian auto component industry.
We remain positive on the long term prospects of BOS due to its technological leadership and strong and diversified product portfolio; however, we expect the near-term performance of the company to remain subdued due to slowdown in the domestic automotive industry. We estimate BOS to post an ~12% CAGR in its top-
August 7, 2013
line and ~23% CAGR in its bottom-line over CY2012-14. As a result, we estimate BOS to post an EPS of `339.8 and `423.1 for CY2013 and CY2014, respectively. At, `8,312 the stock is trading at 19.6x CY2014E earnings. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `9,096.
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August 7, 2013
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P/E (x) FY14E 11.9 11.3 12.9 24.5 15.3 15.4 16.2 8.0 FY15E 10.8 7.2 10.9 19.6 13.4 11.4 13.1 4.9
EV/EBITDA (x) FY14E 7.8 4.6 5.6 14.6 8.1 8.8 6.6 3.2 FY15E 6.4 3.4 4.8 11.3 6.8 6.2 5.6 2.8
RoE (%) FY14E 26.6 9.5 13.6 16.6 18.3 13.4 29.4 4.8 FY15E 23.8 14.0 14.7 17.6 18.0 15.8 28.6 7.6
FY13-15E EPS CAGR (%) 8.4 (4.7) 18.6 23.3 21.1 3.4 24.9 5.6
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Consolidated results; # December year end; ^ September year end
Company background
Bosch, promoted by Robert Bosch GmbH, is the largest auto ancillary company in India and a dominant player in the fuel injection segment with ~75% market share. The company has a diverse product portfolio of diesel and gasoline fuel injection systems, automotive aftermarket products, auto electricals, special purpose machines, packaging machines, electric power tools and security systems. The automotive segment contributes 90% to BOS' total revenue. The company also has one of the largest distribution networks of spare parts in the country, with after-market component sales accounting for ~20% of revenue. BOS has five manufacturing facilities located at Bangalore, Nasik, Naganathpura, Jaipur and Goa.
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CY09 31 3,354 3,385 284 (201) 3,468 2,865 2,358 507 100 6 1,418 2,758 1,068 556 1,135 1,320 1,438 3,468
CY10 31 4,067 4,098 276 (218) 4,156 3,017 2,588 430 224 6 1,607 3,752 1,326 896 1,530 1,863 1,889 4,156
CY11 31 4,697 4,728 245 (228) 37 172 4,955 3,352 2,767 585 321 6 1,635 333 4,024 952 993 2,079 1,948 2,075 4,955
CY12 31 5,542 5,573 185 (255) 33 218 5,755 3,935 3,078 857 417 6 1,520 226 4,623 1,487 1,019 2,117 1,894 2,729 5,755
CY13E 31 6,389 6,421 185 (255) 33 218 6,602 4,502 3,488 1,013 451 6 1,744 226 5,162 1,801 1,097 2,264 1,999 3,163 6,602
CY14E 31 7,498 7,530 185 (255) 33 218 7,711 5,092 3,955 1,137 510 6 2,036 226 5,974 2,036 1,287 2,651 2,179 3,796 7,711
Note: Cash includes term deposits with banks with maturity of more than 3 months but less than 12
August 7, 2013
CY09 729 304 130 221 (285) (203) 897 (75) (551) 285 (341) 20 94 (672) (559) (3) 1,071 1,068
CY10 1,002 254 (14) (5) (7) (344) 886 (277) (190) 7 (460) (8) 110 (270) (168) 258 1,068 1,326
CY11 1,518 258 (561) 1 (320) (451) 445 (431) (27) 320 (138) (31) 493 (552) (91) 216 74 290
CY12 1,262 367 (41) 149 (369) (388) 981 (679) 115 369 (195) (60) 157 (314) (217) (109) 290 181
CY13E 1,558 410 (120) (414) (491) 944 (600) (224) 414 (411) 219 (219) 313 1,487 1,801
CY14E 1,939 467 (397) (455) (611) 943 (650) (293) 455 (488) 219 (219) 236 1,801 2,036
Closing cash balance excludes term deposits with banks with maturity of more than 3 months but
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10
Key ratios
Y/E Dec. Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) (0.7) (2.7) 428.4 (0.6) (2.1) (0.5) (1.5) (0.5) (2.1) 178.6 (0.5) (2.2) 194.7 (0.5) (2.0) 215.2 1.8 42 49 61 31 2.3 37 36 60 25 2.6 45 37 66 38 2.4 49 41 59 50 2.2 50 41 60 51 2.3 50 41 58 52 15.3 21.2 15.6 26.2 35.3 16.1 27.5 31.3 22.6 18.3 23.0 15.7 18.6 24.0 16.6 20.8 26.3 17.6 10.6 0.7 2.2 16.9 0.3 (0.6) 7.0 15.0 0.7 2.6 25.9 0.9 (0.6) 9.7 15.7 0.7 2.4 26.3 0.1 (0.6) 11.5 11.5 0.7 2.1 16.7 1.8 (0.5) 9.2 12.6 0.7 2.1 17.7 2.2 (0.5) 9.7 13.9 0.7 2.1 19.8 2.6 (0.5) 10.9 227.1 167.7 323.8 30.0 1,078 273.4 209.6 354.3 40.0 1,305 339.7 339.7 421.8 135.0 1,506 278.3 278.3 395.2 60.0 1,775 339.8 339.8 470.5 60.0 2,045 423.1 423.1 571.6 60.0 2,398 36.6 25.7 7.7 0.4 4.7 29.4 6.9 30.4 23.5 6.4 0.5 3.3 18.7 5.6 24.5 19.7 5.5 1.6 2.8 15.7 4.8 29.9 21.0 4.7 0.7 2.5 17.2 4.0 24.5 17.7 4.1 0.7 2.3 14.6 3.4 19.6 14.5 3.5 0.7 1.9 11.3 2.9 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13E CY14E
254.3 3,135.3
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bosch No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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