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Cadila Healthcare
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Other income Gross profit Operating profit Net profit 1QFY2014 1,608 42 1068 256 196 4QFY2013 1566 55 947 240 262 % chg (qoq) 2.7 (23.2) 12.8 6.8 (25.5) 1QFY2013 1516 88 991 267 195 % chg (yoy) 6.0 (52.0) 7.8 (4.0) 0.4
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Pharmaceutical 14,492 2,211 0.1 964 / 694 20,506 5 18,789 5,566 CADI.BO CDH@IN
746 894
12 months
Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) reported lower-than-expected numbers for 1QFY2014. On the sales front, the company posted a 6.0% yoy growth in its top-line to end the period at `1,608cr, vs our expectation of `1,820cr. On the operating front, the margins at 16.0% came ahead of our expectation of 15.7%. While the other income came in lower than expected, the lower-than-expected interest expenses and taxations led the net profit to come in at `196cr vs our expectation of `237cr during the period, posting a flat 0.4% yoy growth during the period. We recommend a Buy with a target of `894. Below expectation results: For 1QFY2014, Cadila reported net sales of `1,608cr, up 6.0% yoy, but lower than our estimate of `1,820cr. The growth in the top-line was subdued, as both exports and domestic sales posted a muted growth during the period. While domestic sales grew by 8.6% yoy, exports grew by 5.0% yoy. On the operating front, the margins dipped by 168bp yoy but came in ahead of our expectation of 15.7%. While the other income came in lower than expected, the lower-than-expected interest expense and taxation led the net profit to come in at `196cr, posting a flat 0.4% yoy growth, vs our expectation of `237cr for the period. Outlook and valuation: We expect Cadilas net sales to post a 16.6% CAGR to `8,367cr and EPS to report an 18.1% CAGR to `44.7 over FY201315E. While, the growth momentum has slowed down, the stock has corrected significantly, making it attractive. We recommend a Buy on the stock with a revised target price of `894.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 74.8 13.9 5.7 5.6
3m (6.0)
1yr 6.8
(11.1) (20.8)
5,090 14.0 650 (8.6) 31.7 17.9 22.3 27.4 17.3 5.6 3.2 17.7
6,155 20.9 655 0.8 32.0 15.0 22.1 23.3 13.2 4.8 2.6 17.6
7,123 15.7 765 16.7 37.3 15.5 19.0 22.9 14.0 4.0 2.3 14.9
8,367 17.5 915 19.7 44.7 15.7 15.8 22.9 15.2 3.3 1.9 12.4 Sarabjit Kour Nangra
+91 22 39357600 Ext: 6806 sarabjit@angelbroking.com
1QFY2014 1,608 42 1,650 1068 66.5 256 16.0 28 47 224 20 204 0 8 196 9.5
4QFY2013 1,566 55 1,621 947 60.5 240 15.3 32 47 217 (58) 275 0 13 262 12.8
% chg (qoq) 2.7 (23.2) 1.8 12.8 6.8 (11.8) 0.0 3.3 (134.8) (25.9) (37.8) (25.5)
1QFY2013 1,516 88 1,604 991 65.4 267 17.6 45 43 266 65 201 0 6 195 9.5
% chg (yoy) 6.0 (52.0) 2.9 7.8 (4.0) (38.7) 7.2 (15.8) (68.9) 1.4
FY2013 6,155 240 6,395 3835 62.3 923 15.0 169 183 811 119 692 0 36
FY2012 5,090 224 5,314 3390 66.6 911 17.9 183 158 794 113 681 3 29 650 31.7
% chg 20.9 6.9 20.3 13.1 1.4 (7.7) 15.8 2.1 5.7 1.5
0.4
655 32.0
0.8
(` cr)
96
93
For 1QFY2014, the domestic segment reported an 8.6% yoy growth, with the formulations segment registering a 7.5% yoy growth. In the Consumer Healthcare division, Cadila continued to post a growth of 11.3% in 1QFY2013. Animal healthcare, on the other hand, remained flat with a de-growth of 0.1% yoy.
(` cr)
400 300 200 100 0 1QFY2013 2QFY2013 3QFY2013 4QFY2013 1QFY2014 Domestic Formulation Consumer division 103 97 102 108 115
On the CRAMS front, the company generated sales of `131cr (`129cr), reporting a growth of 1.2% yoy.
(%)
4QFY2013
1QFY2014
Net profit much below expectation: While the other income came in lower than expected, the lower-than-expected interest expense and taxation led the net profit to come in at `196cr, posting a flat 0.4% yoy growth, vs our expectation of `237cr during the period.
196
(` cr)
150
Concall takeaways
The Management is to revise the earlier US$3bn top-line target for FY2016 by the end of 2QFY2014 on account of rupee depreciation. The earlier US$3bn top-line target was based on an exchange rate of `44/US$. The Management expects a sales impact of `90cr on the domestic formulation sales on account of the new pricing policy. The company expects the domestic formulation business to revive in 2HFY2014. The company has launched 20 new products in the market, of which five were for the first time in India.
The growth in the US exports was subdued, on back of lack of new products. The Management guided for 5-8 approvals in FY2014 and more in FY2015. For FY2015, the company expects the US business to clock a 20% yoy growth. The company has filed 5 new ANDAs in 1QFY2014 (topical - 2). Also, it has launched its first injectable during the quarter. The cumulative ANDA filings stood at 173, with 79 approved and 94 pending for approvals. Tax rate guidance reduced from 15% of PBT in FY2014.
Recommendation rationale
Strong domestic portfolio: Cadila is the fifth largest player in the domestic market, with sales of about `2,987cr in FY2013, ~48% to its top-line. The company enjoys leadership position in the CVS, GI, women healthcare and respiratory segments, with a sales force of 4,500 MRs. The company, on an aggressive front, launched more than 90 new products in FY2013, including line extensions, of which 10 were for the first time. During FY2008-13, the company reported a ~15% CAGR in its top-line in the domestic formulation business. Further, the company has a strong consumer division through its stake in Zydus Wellness, which has premium brands, such as Sugarfree, Everyuth and Nutralite, under its umbrella. This segment which contributes ~6.5% to its sales, posted a strong growth in FY2013, registering a growth of 19.0% yoy during the year. Going forward, the company expects the segment to grow at above-industry rate on the back of new product launches and field force expansion. While FY2014, sales would be lower, however FY2015 should witness strong sales growth. During FY2013-15E, we expect the domestic segment to grow at a CAGR of 12.4%. Exports on a strong footing: Cadila has a two-fold focus on exports, wherein it is targeting developed as well as emerging markets, which contributed around 53% to its FY2013 top-line. The company has developed a formidable presence in the developed markets of US, Europe (France and Spain) and Japan. In the US, the company achieved critical scale of `1,500cr on the sales front in FY2013. Growth in US exports will be subdued in FY2014, on back of lack of new products along with price erosion among its key products and with just 5-8 approvals. However, in FY2015, the region is expected to post a growth of 20% on back of 20 approvals. In Europe, the companys growth going forward would be driven by new product launches and improvement in margin by product transfer to Indian facilities. Among emerging markets, Cadila is aggressively targeting Brazil and the CIS region. Overall, we expect the exports to grow at a CAGR of 19.6% during the period.
Price
Source: Company, Angel Research
7x
14x
21x
28x
Company Background: Cadila Healthcares operations range from API to formulations, animal health products and cosmeceuticals. The group has global operations in four continents spread across USA, Europe, Japan, Brazil, South Africa and 25 other emerging markets. Having already achieved the US$1bn mark in 2011, we shall achieve sales of over US$3bn by 2015 and be a research-driven pharmaceutical company by 2020.
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.5 1.2 6.8 0.4 0.9 10.5 0.7 2.0 4.1 0.7 2.3 4.4 0.6 2.0 4.9 0.5 1.6 5.9 1.9 67 47 72 65 2.1 62 49 80 55 2.0 66 57 49 64 1.8 66 54 42 66 1.7 66 53 43 66 1.7 65 52 42 67 20.2 30.9 35.6 22.9 34.9 37.4 17.3 27.2 27.4 13.2 19.5 23.3 14.0 18.9 22.9 15.2 19.9 22.9 15.7 87.7 1.5 20.1 6.1 0.7 29.5 16.4 87.4 1.6 22.7 5.6 0.4 30.3 14.8 85.8 1.3 16.8 9.4 0.5 20.8 12.0 85.3 1.2 12.8 5.8 0.7 17.7 12.4 85.0 1.3 13.4 5.7 0.6 18.3 12.7 85.0 1.3 14.4 5.7 0.5 19.0 24.9 24.9 31.5 79.7 34.7 34.7 41.0 6.3 106.1 31.7 31.7 39.5 7.5 125.7 32.0 32.0 41.0 7.5 148.5 37.3 37.3 48.3 7.5 177.4 44.7 44.7 57.2 7.5 213.5 28.5 22.5 8.9 0.0 4.3 22.1 5.3 20.4 17.3 6.7 0.9 3.4 17.6 4.3 22.3 17.9 5.6 1.1 3.2 17.7 3.1 22.1 17.3 4.8 1.1 2.6 17.6 2.7 19.0 14.7 4.0 1.1 2.3 14.9 2.5 15.8 12.4 3.3 1.1 1.9 12.4 2.2 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Cadila No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12