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14.08.

2013

Company Analysis - Overview


Ticker:

MTN Group Ltd

MTN SJ

Benchmark:
FTSE/JSE AFRICA ALL SHR (JALSH)

Johannesburg: MTN, Currency: ZAr

Currency:
Sector: Telecommunication Services

Industry: Wireless Telecommunication Ser

Telephone
27-11-912-3000
Revenue (M)
Website
www.mtn.co.za
No of Employees
Address
216-14th Avenue Fairland 2195 PO Box 9955 Cresta, 2118 South Africa
Share Price Performance in ZAr
Price
19606.00
1M Return
52 Week High
19736.00
6M Return
52 Week Low
14426.08
52 Wk Return
52 Wk Beta
1.03
YTD Return
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg
S&P
Moody's
Fitch

Year:
13'511'200
26'716

Date
Date
Date

12/09
14.7x
7.3x
5.0x
1.9x
3.1x
1.6%

12/10
17.7x
7.9x
5.4x
2.2x
3.5x
3.7%

12/11
13.5x
7.0x
4.9x
2.2x
3.0x
5.2%

12/12
16.3x
8.3x
5.8x
2.4x
3.7x
4.6%

12/13E
14.8x
6.5x
2.6x
3.7x
4.9%

12/14E
13.1x
6.0x
2.4x
3.5x
5.5%

12/15E
11.9x
5.5x
2.3x
3.3x
6.1%

12/09
Gross Margin
66.6
EBITDA Margin
41.4
Operating Margin
28.5
Profit Margin
13.1
Return on Assets
9.0
Return on Equity
20.0
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
12/09
Current Ratio
0.8
Quick Ratio
0.6
EBIT/Interest
2.6
Tot Debt/Capital
0.3
Tot Debt/Equity
0.5
Eff Tax Rate %
33.4

12/10
68.4
41.4
28.0
12.5
9.2
20.2

12/11
66.9
43.0
30.3
17.0
12.3
25.8

12/12
66.5
42.6
29.8
15.3
11.4
23.3

12/13E
66.5
42.9
29.5
17.2
14.0
26.1

12/14E
66.5
43.0
29.7
17.9
15.0
26.9

12/15E
66.5
43.1
29.4
18.2
15.0
27.4

12/10
1.2
1.0
5.2
0.3
0.5
40.1

12/11
1.2
1.0
5.6
0.3
0.4
36.8

12/12
1.1
0.8
4.0
0.3
0.4
34.9

Outlook
Outlook
Outlook

Business Segments in ZAr


Wireless Telecommunications
Cellular Telephones and Accessories

3.6%
13.3%
32.6%
13.8%

14.02.2012
-

MTN Group Limited provides a wide range of communication services. The Company's
services include cellular network access and business solutions. MTN Group is a
multinational telecommunications group, operating in countries in Africa and the
Middle East.

POS
STABLE

Sales (M)
12893500
617700

Geographic Segments in ZAr


South and East Africa
Nigeria
Large OpCo cluster
Small OpCo cluster
Head Office Companies
Middle East and North Africa
West And Central Africa

5%

13%

Sales (M)
4135000
3869700
3781800
1776100
-51400

0%
31%

Valuation Ratios
P/E
EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
P/S
P/B
Div Yield
Profitability Ratios %

28%

28%

95%

Wireless Telecommunications

South and East Africa


Nigeria
Large OpCo cluster

Cellular Telephones and Accessories

Small OpCo cluster


Head Office Companies

Current Capitalization in ZAr


Common Shares Outstanding (M)
Market Capitalization (M)
Cash and ST Investments (M)
Total Debt (M)
Preferred Equity (M)
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)
Investments (M)
Enterprise Value (M)

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

1861.1
36927643.8
2541600.0
4214800.0
0.0
0.0
413100.0
39013943.8

Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings


MTN Group Ltd
Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price

100%

0%
21%

0%
26%

0%

0%

21%

22%

0%
28%

80%

5%
26%

5%
26%

5%

29%

0%

0%

29%

29%

0%

25'000
5%

Price

Brokers' Target Price


25000
20000

33%

30%

20'000

15'000

60%

15000
10000
5000

0%

0
aot.12

sept.12

oct.12

nov.12

dc.12

Buy

janv.13

Hold

fvr.13

Sell

Date

Buy

Hold

Sell

31-Jul-13
28-Jun-13
31-May-13
30-Apr-13
29-Mar-13
28-Feb-13
31-Jan-13
31-Dec-12
30-Nov-12
31-Oct-12
28-Sep-12
31-Aug-12

65%
67%
71%
71%
67%
68%
68%
72%
78%
79%
74%
79%

30%
33%
29%
29%
29%
26%
26%
28%
22%
21%
26%
21%

5%
0%
0%
0%
5%
5%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

mars.13

Price

avr.13

mai.13

juin.13

juil.13

Target Price

Date
14-Aug-13
13-Aug-13
12-Aug-13
9-Aug-13
8-Aug-13
7-Aug-13
6-Aug-13
5-Aug-13
2-Aug-13
1-Aug-13
31-Jul-13
30-Jul-13
29-Jul-13
26-Jul-13
25-Jul-13
24-Jul-13
23-Jul-13
22-Jul-13
19-Jul-13
18-Jul-13
17-Jul-13
16-Jul-13
15-Jul-13
12-Jul-13
11-Jul-13
10-Jul-13
9-Jul-13
8-Jul-13
5-Jul-13
4-Jul-13

Price Target Price


19606.00 #N/A N/A
19596.00
19450.00
19200.00
19200.00
19100.00
19140.00
19100.00
18950.00
18940.00
18525.00
18289.00
17620.00
17630.00
17700.00
17499.00
17500.00
18000.00
18000.00
18250.00
18500.00
18500.00
18800.00
18933.00
18600.00
18245.00
18061.00
17997.00
17751.00
18364.00

Broker

Analyst

JPMorgan
SBG Securities
Deutsche Bank
Renaissance Capital
Goldman Sachs
Barclays
NOAH Capital Markets
Avior Research
UBS
Credit Suisse
Morgan Stanley
EVA Dimensions
New Street Research
BNP Paribas Cadiz Securities
BPI
HSBC
Imara
Afrifocus Securities
Gabelli & Co

ZIYAD JOOSUB
JONATHAN KENNEDY-GOOD
MICHAEL GRESTY
JOHAN SNYMAN
ALEXANDER BALAKHNIN
JOHN-PAUL DAVIDS
CRAIG HACKNEY
DAVID LERCHE
CHRIS GRUNDBERG
RICHARD BARKER
EDWARD C HILL-WOOD
ANDREW S ZAMFOTIS
ALASTAIR JONES
IAN BRINK
KATE TURNER-SMITH
HERVE DROUET
SIBONGINKOSI NYANGA
SAMEERA CASSIM
EVAN D MILLER

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Recommendation
overweight
buy
buy
buy
neutral/neutral
equalweight
sell
outperform
buy
outperform
Overwt/In-Line
overweight
neutral
buy
buy
overweight
add
hold
buy

Gabelli & Co

Imara

HSBC

BPI

Afrifocus Securities

5'000

20%

BNP Paribas Cadiz Securities

65%

New Street Research

67%

EVA Dimensions

71%

Morgan Stanley

71%

Credit Suisse

67%

UBS

68%

Avior Research

10'000
68%

NOAH Capital Markets

72%

Barclays

78%

Goldman Sachs

79%

Renaissance Capital

74%

Deutsche Bank

79%

SBG Securities

40%

JPMorgan

Broker Recommendation

Target price in ZAr

Target

Date

20500.00
20000.00
19000.00
20270.00
20300.00
18700.00
16600.00
20609.00
20000.00
19000.00
18500.00

9-Aug-13
2-Aug-13
1-Aug-13
1-Aug-13
24-Jul-13
9-Jul-13
8-Jul-13
13-Jun-13
4-Jun-13
31-May-13
28-May-13
13-May-13
9-May-13
23-Apr-13
13-Mar-13
12-Mar-13
12-Mar-13
14-Dec-12
18-Jul-12

17500.00
19000.00
21200.00
21000.00
17348.00

14.08.2013

MTN Group Ltd

Company Analysis - Ownership


Ownership Type

Ownership Statistics
Shares Outstanding (M)
Float
Short Interest (M)
Short Interest as % of Float
Days to Cover Shorts
Institutional Ownership
Retail Ownership
Insider Ownership

92.24%
7.61%
0.15%

92%

Institutional Ownership

Retail Ownership

Insider Ownership

Pricing data is in ZAr


Top 20 Owners:
Holder Name
GOVERNMENT EMP PENSI
JP MORGAN CUSTODIAN
STATE STREET CUSTODI
CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN
VANGUARD GROUP INC
M1 LTD
DODGE & COX
BANK OF NY CUSTODIAN
NORTHERN TR AVFC GOV
OLD MUTUAL
GEPF CORONATION FM
CSFB EUROPE LTD
BLACKROCK
STATE STREET
BANK OF NEW YORK
CORONATION ASSET MAN
NORTHERN TRUST COMPA
CITIBANK LONDON
OPPENHEIMERFUNDS INC
JP MORGAN

South Africa
United States
Britain
Unknown Country
Luxembourg
Norway
Switzerland
Others

40.78%
21.33%
14.89%
13.52%
3.45%
0.97%
0.84%
4.22%

Institutional Ownership Distribution


Investment Advisor
Other
Government
Unclassified
Others

43.81%
26.60%
14.31%
4.01%
11.27%

DABENGWA RAYMOND SIFISO


NISBET ROBERT DUNCAN
NORMAN PAUL D
STEINLECHNER MONIKA
ABBOTT JOHN WELLS

1% 1% 4%

3%

41%

14%

15%
21%

South Africa

United States

Britain

Unknown Country

Luxembourg

Norway

Switzerland

Others

TOP 20 ALL

Position
237'910'529
173'925'121
163'061'574
88'929'091
51'135'115
42'927'564
41'182'400
40'046'235
38'491'604
31'350'715
28'455'870
27'138'344
26'581'035
25'241'049
25'163'479
23'826'388
22'757'493
22'336'163
19'644'363
19'339'224

Position Change
-5'300'000
8'238'163
1'420'982
6'582'500
1'054'340
0
550'000
-417'509
2'597'744
-2'157'286
-115'200
117'016
134'283
1'094'028
140'980
1'279'653
-471'215
400'878
0
2'357'766

Position

Position Change

Market Value
4'664'473'831'574
3'409'975'922'326
3'196'985'219'844
1'743'543'758'146
1'002'555'064'690
841'637'819'784
807'422'134'400
785'146'483'410
754'666'388'024
614'662'118'290
557'905'787'220
532'074'372'464
521'147'772'210
494'876'006'694
493'355'169'274
467'140'163'128
446'183'407'758
437'922'811'778
385'147'380'978
379'164'825'744

% of Ownership
12.63%
9.23%
8.66%
4.72%
2.71%
2.28%
2.19%
2.13%
2.04%
1.66%
1.51%
1.44%
1.41%
1.34%
1.34%
1.27%
1.21%
1.19%
1.04%
1.03%

Report Date

Market Value

% of Ownership

Report Date

31.05.2013
31.05.2013
31.05.2013
30.06.2013
30.06.2013
31.05.2013
30.06.2013
31.05.2013
31.05.2013
28.06.2013
31.05.2013
31.05.2013
12.08.2013
13.08.2013
31.05.2013
31.03.2013
31.05.2013
31.05.2013
30.06.2013
30.06.2013

Source
SJ-REG
SJ-REG
ULT-AGG
ULT-AGG
MF-AGG
SJ-REG
MF-AGG
SJ-REG
SJ-REG
ULT-AGG
SJ-REG
SJ-REG
ULT-AGG
ULT-AGG
SJ-REG
MF-AGG
SJ-REG
SJ-REG
MF-AGG
ULT-AGG

Top 5 Insiders:
Holder Name

Geographic Ownership

Geographic Ownership Distribution

8% 0%

1861.1
77.1%

1'473'552
1'059'618
265'970
48'429
9'400

28'890'460'512
20'774'870'508
5'214'607'820
949'498'974
184'296'400

0.08%
0.06%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%

Source
31.05.2013
31.05.2013
31.05.2013
31.05.2013
31.05.2013

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

SJ-REG
SJ-REG
SJ-REG
SJ-REG
SJ-REG

Country
SOUTH AFRICA
BRITAIN

Institutional Ownership
11%
4%

UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES

44%
14%

UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
SOUTH AFRICA
27%
SOUTH AFRICA
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
SOUTH AFRICA
BRITAIN
BRITAIN
UNITED STATES

Investment Advisor

Other

Government

Unclassified

Others

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV


MTN Group Ltd
Financial information is in ZAr (M)
Periodicity:

Fiscal Year

Equivalent Estimates
12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

1'243'200
508'100

1'940'500
832'100

2'387'100
965'900

2'899'400
1'084'800

5'159'500
1'594'100

7'314'500
2'404'600

10'252'600
3'334'200

11'194'700
3'738'800

11'468'400
3'623'000

12'188'400
4'033'700

13'511'200
4'529'400

14'016'577

15'190'185

16'311'342

Gross Income
- Selling, General & Admin Expenses
(Research & Dev Costs)

735'100
557'400
0

1'108'400
698'100

1'421'200
753'300

1'814'600
908'200

3'565'400
1'966'300

4'909'900
2'593'600

6'918'400
3'692'900

7'455'900
4'267'200

7'845'400
4'637'000

8'154'700
4'610'400

8'981'800
5'041'100

9'321'024

10'101'473

10'847'042

Operating Income
- Interest Expense
- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)

177'700
44'700
0
-12'600

410'300
95'700
0
23'600

667'900
74'800

906'400
57'100

3'225'500
864'400
171'100
-659'000

3'208'400
617'100

3'690'100
661'000

4'030'100
1'012'300

4'134'543

4'506'000

4'798'114

-32'300

2'316'300
495'300
200
-149'900

3'188'700
1'223'000

-15'300

1'599'100
330'700
300
-200'900

-611'600

-218'200

-734'900

-680'300

Pretax Income
- Income Tax Expense

145'600
90'800

291'000
68'700

608'400
110'100

881'600
150'200

1'469'000
259'100

1'970'700
779'100

2'849'000
1'135'500

2'577'300
861'200

2'809'500
1'126'800

3'764'000
1'385'300

3'698'100
1'291'300

4'175'538

4'613'431

5'014'267

54'800
0
-4'400

222'300
0
28'900

498'300
0
61'200

731'400
0
90'700

1'209'900
0
148'900

1'191'600
0
130'800

1'713'500
0
182'000

1'716'100
251'100

1'682'700
0
252'700

2'378'700
0
303'300

2'406'800
0
336'400

57'260
35.10
0.00
0.0

192'900
117.00
41.00
35.0

370'000
223.60
65.00
24.7

640'700
386.00
65.00
16.9

1'187'600
677.70
90.00
15.8

1'084'200
582.40
136.00
23.9

1'531'500
821.00
181.00
22.1

1'396'300
791.40
192.00
24.1

1'383'325
750.00
500.00
65.4

1'981'100
1068.60
749.00
67.9

2'001'800
1089.10
824.00
74.1

2'409'940
1324.21
951.60
0.72

2'719'508
1498.38
1071.42
0.72

2'970'400
1650.79
1202.26
0.73

1'640
1'701

1'652
1'665

1'658
1'654

1'662
1'660

1'860
1'766

1'865
1'876

1'868
1'875

1'841
1'860

1'885
1'852

1'848
1'868

1'861
1'849

362'600

658'300

905'500

1'201'900

2'231'000

3'213'600

4'501'400

4'636'200

4'745'200

5'236'000

5'754'700

6'014'131

6'527'623

7'036'983

Income Statement
Revenue
- Cost of Goods Sold

Income Before XO Items


- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax
- Minority Interests
Diluted EPS Before XO Items
Net Income Adjusted*
EPS Adjusted
Dividends Per Share
Payout Ratio %
Total Shares Outstanding
Diluted Shares Outstanding
EBITDA

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV


Periodicity:

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

417000
121'400
0
156'900
53'300
85'400

530300
213'700
0
201'700
43'500
71'400

864300
533'600

1063700
642'900

330'700

420'800

2063500
996'100
0
661'900
104'300
301'200

3350100
1'686'800
0
903'600
116'700
643'000

5478700
2'696'100
700
1'179'400
237'200
1'365'300

4602400
2'399'900
600
944'100
152'200
1'105'600

5505900
3'594'700
0
879'300
158'900
873'000

6762100
3'580'600
948'000
1'225'900
262'900
744'700

6028700
2'570'000
707'400
1'286'200
259'300
1'205'800

2'324'300
0
1'156'700
324'500
832'200
1'492'100

2'285'400
37'500
1'404'800
467'400
937'400
1'310'500

1'363'700
56'000

1'872'700
60'400

1'090'400
217'300

1'562'300
250'000

7'628'200
285'200
4'878'900
1'814'200
3'064'700
4'278'300

8'208'500
243'300
6'413'900
2'467'600
3'946'300
4'018'900

11'531'900
0
10'238'200
3'818'900
6'419'300
5'112'600

11'021'300
0
10'353'100
3'599'000
6'754'100
4'267'200

9'972'700
0
10'533'000
4'196'900
6'336'100
3'636'600

11'378'700
0
13'018'100
5'857'100
7'161'000
4'217'700

12'109'700
0
13'907'100
6'158'600
7'748'500
4'361'200

Total Current Liabilities


+ Accounts Payable
+ Short Term Borrowings
+ Other Short Term Liabilities

447'500
102'800
47'800
296'900

616'300
134'600
160'000
321'700

635'800

748'900

43'900
591'900

21'700
727'200

1'998'500
463'000
471'600
1'063'900

3'497'000
632'800
1'065'000
1'799'200

5'459'100
1'015'700
1'249'000
3'194'400

5'494'500
627'500
1'585'100
3'281'900

4'671'700
334'200
1'047'100
3'290'400

5'531'700
761'500
1'046'200
3'724'000

5'519'000
650'800
1'079'000
3'789'200

Total Long Term Liabilities


+ Long Term Borrowings
+ Other Long Term Borrowings

620'200
529'800
90'400

405'600
324'900
80'700

437'600
371'000
66'600

361'800
301'100
60'700

3'420'300
2'858'700
561'600

2'911'400
2'300'700
610'700

3'497'300
2'910'000
587'300

2'842'600
2'106'600
736'000

3'399'500
2'485'700
913'800

3'339'200
2'374'300
964'900

3'330'700
2'174'200
1'156'500

Total Liabilities
+ Long Preferred Equity
+ Minority Interest
+ Share Capital & APIC
+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity

1'067'700
0
82'000
1'434'800
156'800

1'021'900
0
88'200
1'408'300
297'300

1'073'400
0
141'800

1'110'700
0
232'400

1'012'800

1'593'300

5'418'800
0
403'300
2'380'400
1'489'200

6'408'400
0
418'700
2'386'400
2'345'100

8'956'400
0
415'600
2'390'500
5'248'100

8'337'100
0
285'500
4'429'700
2'571'400

8'071'200
0
221'900
4'560'200
2'625'300

8'870'900
0
380'200
4'467'800
4'421'900

8'849'700
0
388'100
4'259'300
4'641'300

Total Shareholders Equity

1'673'600

1'793'800

1'154'600

1'825'700

4'272'900

5'150'200

8'054'200

7'286'600

7'407'400

9'269'900

9'288'700

Total Liabilities & Equity

2'741'300

2'815'700

2'228'000

2'936'400

9'691'700

11'558'600

17'010'600

15'623'700

15'478'600

18'140'800

18'138'400

970.23
87.05

1'032.41
272.08

610.96
501.35

958.38
854.98

2'080.13
-75.74

2'537.27
456.78

4'089.16
1'638.11

3'803.84
1'844.41

3'812.93
2'206.89

4'810.31
2'941.31

4'782.32
2'958.98

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

5'251.56

5'556.91

5'895.83

Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
+ Cash & Near Cash Items
+ Short Term Investments
+ Accounts & Notes Receivable
+ Inventories
+ Other Current Assets
Total Long-Term Assets
+ Long Term Investments
Gross Fixed Assets
Accumulated Depreciation
+ Net Fixed Assets
+ Other Long Term Assets

Book Value Per Share


Tangible Book Value Per Share

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV


Periodicity:

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

145'600
184'900
-91'800
72'200

193'400
248'000
37'500
60'400

437'100
237'600
185'000

640'700
295'500
13'900

1'061'000
631'900
141'500
36'100

1'060'800
897'300
755'800
38'600

1'531'500
1'275'900
827'200
42'600

1'465'000
1'447'500
763'300
290'500

1'430'000
1'536'800
1'070'700
66'600

2'075'400
1'545'900
938'100
-599'800

2'070'400
1'724'600
695'400
-188'900

2'550'950

2'820'186

2'999'200

Cash From Operating Activities


+ Disposal of Fixed Assets
+ Capital Expenditures
+ Increase in Investments
+ Decrease in Investments
+ Other Investing Activities

310'900
700
-335'600
0
0
-15'300

539'300
1'500
-391'900
-48'000

859'700

950'100

1'870'500
10'200
-937'900
-6'700
0
-2'926'200

2'752'500
14'200
-1'445'800
-89'100
0
-194'500

3'677'200
14'700
-2'689'600
0
0
-42'800

3'966'300
11'500
-2'772'000
0
0
-558'700

4'104'100
16'200
-1'534'300
0
0
-52'000

3'959'600
3'600
-1'410'300
-850'800
0
195'900

4'301'500
23'500
-2'257'200
0
196'800
-669'000

-2'655'663

-2'500'088

-2'485'043

Cash From Investing Activities


+ Dividends Paid
+ Change in Short Term Borrowings
+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings
+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings
+ Increase in Capital Stocks
+ Decrease in Capital Stocks
+ Other Financing Activities

-350'200
0
-35'900
49'900
0
0
0
56'200

-439'100
0
0
18'700
0
0
0
-49'200

-489'800

-755'100

-3'860'600
-108'300
130'100
1'906'600
0
0
0
-137'400

-1'715'200
-167'500
597'300
0
-583'600
6'000
0
-235'700

-2'717'700
-397'900
92'800
2'043'100
-1'644'400
4'100
0
-52'200

-3'319'200
-270'100
0
1'194'500
-1'064'700
3'600
0
-805'400

-1'570'100
-631'300
0
672'400
-826'300
130'600
0
-182'200

-2'061'600
-1'172'200
0
484'800
-1'000'700
600
0
-279'900

-2'705'900
-1'491'900
0
1'110'800
-1'455'200
300
0
-727'800

Cash From Financing Activities

70'200

-30'500

23'300

-85'900

1'791'000

-383'500

45'500

-942'100

-836'800

-1'967'400

-2'563'800

Net Changes in Cash

30'900

69'700

393'200

109'100

-199'100

653'800

1'005'000

-295'000

1'697'200

-69'400

-968'200

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)

-24'700

147'400

932'600

1'306'700

987'600

1'194'300

2'569'800

2'549'300

2'044'300

1'856'178

2'499'442

2'933'363

Free Cash Flow To Firm


Free Cash Flow To Equity
Free Cash Flow per Share

-7'876
-10'000
-15.13

220'507
167'600
89.50

1'204'972
2'979'500
532.21

1'606'187
1'334'600
701.98

1'507'484
1'493'800
529.46

2'008'637
1'335'600
645.13

2'939'401
2'432'100
1'394.95

2'967'026
2'037'000
1'375.08

2'703'126
1'723'400
1'112.25

Cash Flows
Net Income
+ Depreciation & Amortization
+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments
+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital

-700

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV


Periodicity:

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

Valuation Ratios
Price Earnings
EV to EBIT
EV to EBITDA
Price to Sales
Price to Book
Dividend Yield

18.3x
15.3x
7.5x
1.7x
1.4x
0.0%

7.9x
5.7x
3.6x
1.0x
1.2x
3.4%

12.5x
8.2x
6.1x
2.3x
5.4x
2.0%

11.4x
8.0x
6.0x
2.5x
4.6x
1.5%

14.1x
11.6x
8.3x
2.9x
4.1x
1.1%

21.9x
11.2x
8.1x
3.3x
5.0x
1.1%

13.0x
6.9x
4.9x
2.0x
2.7x
1.7%

14.7x
7.3x
5.0x
1.9x
3.1x
1.6%

17.7x
7.9x
5.4x
2.2x
3.5x
3.7%

13.5x
7.0x
4.9x
2.2x
3.0x
5.2%

16.3x
8.3x
5.8x
2.4x
3.7x
4.6%

14.8x

13.1x

11.9x

6.5x
2.6x
3.7x
4.9%

6.0x
2.4x
3.5x
5.5%

5.5x
2.3x
3.3x
6.1%

Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin
Operating Margin
Profit Margin
Return on Assets
Return on Equity

59.1%
29.2%
14.3%
4.8%
2.4%
3.9%

57.1%
33.9%
21.1%
10.0%
7.0%
11.7%

59.5%
37.9%
28.0%
18.3%
17.3%
32.2%

62.6%
41.5%
31.3%
22.1%
24.8%
49.2%

69.1%
43.2%
31.0%
20.6%
16.8%
38.8%

67.1%
43.9%
31.7%
14.5%
10.0%
24.7%

67.5%
43.9%
31.5%
14.9%
10.7%
24.8%

66.6%
41.4%
28.5%
13.1%
9.0%
20.0%

68.4%
41.4%
28.0%
12.5%
9.2%
20.2%

66.9%
43.0%
30.3%
17.0%
12.3%
25.8%

66.5%
42.6%
29.8%
15.3%
11.4%
23.3%

66.5%
42.9%
29.5%
17.2%
14.0%
26.1%

66.5%
43.0%
29.7%
17.9%
15.0%
26.9%

66.5%
43.1%
29.4%
18.2%
15.0%
27.4%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios


Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)
Tot Debt/Capital
Tot Debt/Equity

0.93
0.62
3.98
0.26
0.35

0.86
0.67
4.29
0.21
0.27

1.36
0.84
8.93
0.26
0.36

1.42
0.86
15.87
0.15
0.18

1.03
0.83
4.84
0.44
0.78

0.96
0.74
4.68
0.40
0.65

1.00
0.71
3.73
0.34
0.52

0.84
0.61
2.61
0.34
0.51

1.18
0.96
5.20
0.32
0.48

1.22
1.04
5.58
0.27
0.37

1.09
0.83
3.98
0.26
0.35

Others
Asset Turnover
Accounts Receivable Turnover
Accounts Payable Turnover
Inventory Turnover

0.50
9.46
5.27
12.73

0.70
10.82
6.93
17.19

0.95

1.12

0.82

0.69
9.34
4.41
21.76

0.72
9.84
4.19
18.84

0.69
10.54
4.45
19.20

0.74
12.58
7.55
23.29

0.73
11.58
7.55
19.13

0.74
10.76
6.41
17.35

62.4%

23.6%

18.1%

17.0%

17.6%

39.5%

39.9%

33.4%

40.1%

36.8%

34.9%

Ratio Analysis

Effective Tax Rate

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision


MTN GROUP LTD VODACOM GROUP TELKOM SA SOC LT
Latest Fiscal Year:
52-Week High
52-Week High Date
52-Week Low
52-Week Low Date
Daily Volume

Current Price (8/dd/yy)


52-Week High % Change
52-Week Low % Change
Total Common Shares (M)

Market Capitalization
Total Debt
Preferred Stock
Minority Interest
Cash and Equivalents

Enterprise Value
Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

EPS

P/E

Revenue Growth
EBITDA Growth
EBITDA Margin

LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
1 Year
5 Year
1 Year
5 Year
LTM
CY+1
CY+2

12/2012
19'736.00
14.08.2013
14'944.00
25.10.2012
1'717'923

03/2013
12'988.00
07.01.2013
9'857.00
15.08.2012
134'968

03/2013
2'367.00
12.08.2013
1'134.00
06.05.2013
78'477

19'606.00

12'199.00

-0.7%
31.2%
1'861.1

-6.1%
23.8%
1'466.6

ORASCOM
TELECOM

MOBILE
TELECOMMU

MILLICOM INTL

12/2012
5.19
30.05.2013
3.11
26.11.2012
4'207'313

12/2012
850.00
28.11.2012
650.00
30.06.2013
379'407

2'219.00

4.63

-6.3%
95.7%
510.6

-10.8%
48.9%
5'245.7

ETISALAT

NASPERS LTD-N

12/2012
95.25
01.02.2013
70.05
24.06.2013
4'320

12/2012
12.10
15.05.2013
8.56
12.12.2012
548'651

03/2013
84'700.00
12.08.2013
46'005.00
14.08.2012
161'156

670.00

82.60

11.80

-21.2%
3.1%
3'889.6

-13.3%
17.9%
99.6

-2.5%
37.9%
7'906.1

VIMPELCOM LTADR

BLUE LABEL TELEC

12/2012
11.99
07.03.2013
8.69
14.08.2012
537'415

05/2012
915.00
04.02.2013
577.00
16.08.2012
785'244

84'080.00

10.74

850.00

-0.7%
82.8%
395.0

-10.4%
23.6%
1'619.2

-7.1%
47.3%
661.5

369'276

181'516

11'556

24'288

2'891

8'257

93'292

350'222

18'867

5'733

32'532.0
3'881.0
32'774.0

14'511.0
416.0
7'698.0

6'657.0
379.0
2'387.0

30'179.0
474.0
13'807.0

651.8
120.1
305.3

3'259.0
312.0
1'174.0

5'815.9
5'547.8
13'934.1

28'901.0
2'112.0
15'813.0

25'693.0
503.0
4'949.0

12.0
(9.3)
1'978.4

93'631
Valuation

365'422

41'842

50'249.0
50'249.0
60'694.8
70'907.3
4.8x
4.8x
6.0x
5.1x
6'945.0
6'945.0
8'439.9
10'276.9
34.8x
34.8x
43.0x
35.4x
16.69
17.22
28.43
36.04
48.8x
50.4x
29.6x
23.3x
27.3%
23.1%
(3.2%)
6.7%
13.8%
13.9%
14.5%

23'061.0
23'006.0
23'522.8
23'814.9
1.8x
1.8x
1.8x
1.7x
9'768.0
9'749.0
9'956.3
10'070.8
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.1x
1.57
1.65
1.19
1.35
6.5x
6.5x
9.0x
8.0x
13.8%
18.3%
42.4%
42.3%
42.3%

18'715.4
18'932.4
19'253.3
19'722.7
0.2x
0.2x
0.2x
0.2x
766.6
696.2
766.7
814.7
5.3x
5.8x
5.4x
4.5x
0.64
0.63
0.69
0.76
13.6x
13.9x
12.4x
11.1x
3.6%
10.8%
37.4%
30.4%
3.7%
4.0%
4.1%

53.8%
34.1%
4.161x
1.885x
3.971x

172.8%
62.6%
2.775x
2.309x
4.814x

0.4%
0.4%
0.017x
-1.379x
4.233x

BB
22.06.2011
-

390'139

188'745

16'205

42'686

3'474

10'953

135'112.0
133'934.0
140'165.8
151'901.8
2.7x
2.7x
2.6x
2.4x
57'547.0
56'441.0
60'141.3
65'276.2
6.4x
6.5x
6.2x
5.6x
11.03
12.07
13.24
14.98
16.2x
16.1x
14.8x
13.1x
10.9%
7.6%
9.9%
12.4%
42.1%
42.9%
43.0%

69'917.0
69'917.0
73'169.7
77'010.3
2.4x
2.4x
2.6x
2.5x
25'470.0
25'470.0
27'184.8
28'864.0
6.6x
6.6x
7.0x
6.6x
8.73
8.72
9.23
9.74
14.0x
14.0x
13.2x
12.5x
4.5%
10.7%
9.1%
36.4%
37.2%
37.5%

32'501.0
32'501.0
32'761.8
32'875.1
0.4x
0.4x
0.5x
0.5x
7'218.0
7'218.0
7'741.2
7'986.9
1.7x
1.7x
2.0x
1.9x
-22.55
0.87
2.36
2.53
25.5x
9.4x
8.8x
(1.7%)
35.4%
(15.5%)
(13.6%)
22.2%
23.6%
24.3%

22'018.0
22'908.1
25'240.4
26'581.8
1.8x
1.6x
1.6x
1.5x
11'177.0
11'227.2
11'752.5
12'093.0
3.5x
3.2x
3.5x
3.4x
0.59
-0.75
0.76
1.23
18.2x
6.1x
3.8x
1.9%
(5.9%)
5.1%
(0.4%)
49.0%
46.6%
45.5%

1'281.9
1'230.3
1'254.6
1'299.9
2.4x
2.5x
2.6x
2.4x
557.6
525.4
540.4
570.4
5.6x
5.9x
6.0x
5.6x
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.07
11.7x
11.6x
11.2x
10.2x
(3.0%)
(6.9%)
(5.2%)
(3.9%)
42.7%
43.1%
43.9%

4'814.0
4'969.0
5'142.6
5'601.6
2.1x
2.0x
2.0x
1.8x
1'915.0
1'816.7
1'713.0
1'777.8
5.2x
5.5x
6.1x
5.7x
5.00
4.21
4.79
5.26
19.6x
19.6x
17.2x
15.7x
6.3%
10.4%
(4.1%)
13.5%
36.6%
33.3%
31.7%

36.6%
25.9%
0.747x
0.296x
5.685x

69.8%
40.6%
0.570x
0.267x
27.476x

37.3%
26.7%
0.922x
0.592x
10.936x

306.6%
74.5%
2.815x
1.460x
4.069x

41.0%
27.6%
1.527x
0.858x
21.132x

161.0%
58.2%
1.838x
1.335x
8.705x

BBB04.12.2012
WR
12.04.2005

NR
23.06.2011
-

NR
18.02.2009
Ba2
24.10.2012

32'946.3
35'973.0
37'146.5
38'653.9
2.7x
2.5x
2.4x
2.3x
10'346.3
11'666.1
18'668.9
19'162.9
8.6x
7.7x
4.7x
4.6x
1.21
0.87
0.99
1.03
13.6x
12.1x
12.0x
11.4x
2.2%
9.5%
5.3%
3.8%
32.4%
50.3%
49.6%

4'753

Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %
Total Debt / Capital %
Total Debt / EBITDA
Net Debt / EBITDA
EBITDA / Int. Expense

14.3%
11.2%
0.494x
-0.448x
32.038x

Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating
S&P LT Credit Rating Date
Moody's LT Credit Rating
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date

AA- *26.04.2013
-

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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