3/19/2013

1
Topic6(Ch.5)
TrafficStreamParameters
MohanVenigalla,Ph.D.,P.E.
A i t P f CEIE
MohanVenigalla
AssociateProfessor,CEIE
GeorgeMasonUniversity
Fairfax,VA220304444
Progress
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3/19/2013
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TrafficStreams
Individualvehiclesanddriversmakeupthe
t ffi t trafficstream
Localcharacteristicsanddriverbehaviorare
majorfactorsonitsperformance
Driversandvehiclesarenotuniformin
theirmakeuporbehavior
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theirmakeuporbehavior
TrafficStreams
Uninterrupted freeways,twolanerural
d roads
Interruptedflowfacilities arterials,local
roadways(haveexternaldevicesthat
interruptedflow)
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InterruptedFacilities
Vehiclesflowinplatoons
A f hi l i t th ith Agroupofvehiclesmovingtogetherwitha
significantgapbetweenthemselvesandthe
nextgroupofvehicles
Signaltimingplanstrytotakeadvantageof
platoonsforcontinuousflow
Si l l l h il b i d
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Signalsplacelessthan2milesapartcanbetimed
toallowforuninterruptedflowbetweensignals
TrafficStreamParameters
Macroscopicparameters describethetraffic
streamasawhole streamasawhole
Trafficflow
Speed
Density
Microscopicparameters describethebehaviorof
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theindividualvehiclewithrespecttoeachother
Spacing
Headway
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MacroscopicParameters
Trafficflow numberofvehiclesthatpassa
certainpointduringaspecifiedtime certainpointduringaspecifiedtime
interval(vehicles/hour)
Speed rateofmotionindistance/time
(mph)
Density numberofvehiclesoccupyinga
i l th fhi h l ( hi l
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givenlengthofhighwayorlane(vehicles
permileperlane,vpmpl)
SpacingandTimeHeadway
Spacing thedistancebetweensuccessive
hi l i t ffi t th vehiclesinatrafficstreamastheypasssome
commonreferencepointonthevehicles
Timeheadway thetimebetween
successivevehiclesinatrafficstreamasthey
passsomecommonreferencepointonthe
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p p
vehicles
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TrafficFlowandTimeHeadway
TrafficFlowgivenby:
n
q =
t
q =

n
q=traffic flow in vehicles per unit time
n=number of vehicles passing some designated roadway point during time t
t=duration of time interval
Flow measurements typically related to generalized period of time;
Volume of traffic refers to vehicles per hour
Time Headway given by:
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=
=
i
i
h t
1
Time Headway given by:
t=duration of time interval
h
i
=time headway of the ith vehicle
n=number of measured vehicle time headways at
some designated roadway point
TimeHeadwayandTrafficFlow
Timeheadwayisdefinedasthetimebetween
thepassageofsuccessivevehicles(canbe
measuredfromfrontbumpersorrear
bumpers)
Substitutingt intotheflowequationgives:
or
h
n
q
n
=

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h
q
h
i
i
1
1
=

=
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ExampleProblem
Giventhefollowingheadways,determinethe
h d dth fl averageheadwayandtheflow:
4.74s,3.33s,4.74s,8.97s,11.63s,3.83s,14.40s
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SpeedandTravelTime
Timemeanspeed pointmeasureofspeed
Spacemeanspeed measurerelatingtolength p p g g
ofroadway
Averagetraveltime totaltimetotraversea
highway
Averagerunningspeed totaltimeduring
whichvehicleisinmotionwhiletraversinga
highwaysegment(nostoptimeincluded)
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highwaysegment(nostoptimeincluded)
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SpeedandTravelTime
Operatingspeed maximumsafespeeda
hi l b d i ith t di vehiclecanbedrivenwithoutexceeding
designspeed
85
th
percentilespeed speedatwhich85%
ofvehiclesaretravelingatorbelow
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TimeMeanSpeed
Arithmeticmeanofvehiclesspeedsis
givenby: givenby:
n
u
u
n
i
i
t

=
=
1
u
t
=time-mean speed in unit distance per unit time
u
i
=spot speed of the ith vehicle
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i
p p
n=number of measured vehicle spot speeds
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SpaceMeanSpeed
Timenecessaryfora
vehicletotravelsome l vehicletotravelsome
knownlengthof
roadway
t
l
u
s
=

n
1
u
s
=space-mean speed in unit distance per unit time
l=length of roadway used for travel time measurements of vehicles
t(bar)= average vehicle travel time, defined as:
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=
=
i
i
t
n
t
1
1
t
i
=time necessary for vehicle i to travel a roadway section of length l
TrafficDensity
Measureusingaerialphotographs;thinkofit
asthenumberofvehiclesthatoccupya py
lengthofroadway
l
n
k =
k=traffic density in vehicles per unit distance
n=number of vehicles occupying some length
of roadway at some specified time
l=length of roadway
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=
=
n
i
i
s l
1
l=length of roadway
s
i
=spacing of the ith vehicle (the distance between vehicles i and i-1 measured
from front bumper to front bumper
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SpacingandDensity
Substitutingtheequationforroadway
lengthintothedensityequationgives lengthintothedensityequationgives
or
s
n
k
n
i
i
1
1
=

=
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s
k
1
=
BasicTrafficStreamModels
uk q =
Example: average headway is 2.5 s/veh on single lane roadway; average
hi l i i 200 d i d f ffi
ft h k
hr veh q
hr s s veh q
s veh
veh s
q
/ 005 0
1
/ 1440
/ 3600 / 40 . 0
/ 40 . 0
/ 5 . 2
1
=
=
= =
vehicle spacing is 200; determine average speed of traffic.
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hr mi
mi veh
hr veh
k
q
u
mi veh mi ft ft veh k
ft veh
veh ft
k
/ 5 . 54
/ 4 . 26
/ 1440
/ 4 . 26 / 5280 / 005 . 0
/ 005 . 0
/ 200
= = =
= =
= =
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SpeedDensityModel
) 1 (
f
k
k
u u =
j
f
k
u=space mean speed in mi/hr
u
f
=free-flow speed in mi/hr
k=density in veh/mi
k
j
=jam density in veh/hr
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FlowDensityModel
) (
2
j
f
k
k
k u q =
j
k
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SpeedFlowModel
) (
2
j
u
u k q = ) (
f
j
u
u k q
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ExampleProblem
Givenanestimateofdensityof16.05vpmpl
t d f6 h d t i th j ataspeedof60mph;determinethejam
densityandflowrateat60mph.Assume
carlengthis15 andatjamdensityspacing
betweenvehiclesis15.
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Questions
Ifavehicleistravelingatacruisingspeedof
55 h i th t 55mph,isthat:
Timemeanspeed,or
Spacemeanspeed?
Isfreeflowspeed,whatisthespacemean
speed?
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speed?
Ans:u
f
Problem5.5(p169)
Onaspecificwestboundsectionofahighway,
studies show that the speed density relationship is studiesshowthatthespeeddensityrelationshipis
Itisknownthatthecapacityis4200veh/handthe
) 1 (
5 . 3
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
j
f
k
k
u u
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jamdensityis210veh/mi.whatisthespacemean
speedofthetrafficatcapacityandwhatisthefree
flowspeed?
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SolutiontoProblem5.5
Given:k
j
=210;q
cap
=4200; ) 1 (
5 . 3
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
j
f
k
k
u u
Wehave,q=u.k or
Atcapacity,dq/dk =0
) (
5 . 3
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
j
f
k
k
k k u q
) 5 . 4 1 ( 0
5 . 3
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
cap
f
k
k
u
. \
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|
.

\
j
k
Volume
Planning(nondirectional)volume
measures
Averageannualdailytraffic(AADT)
Averageannualweekdaytraffic(AAWT)
Averagedailytraffic(ADT),average24hour
volumethatcanbemeasuredbyseason,
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y
month,week,day,etc.
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Volume
Hourlyvolumes usedfordesignand
ti l l i operationalanalysis
Peakhourvolume singlehighesthourly
volume
Directionaldesignhourvolume
AADTxKxD=DDHV(K=proportionofdaily
ff d k h f k
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trafficduringpeakhour,D=proportionofpeak
traffictravelinginpeakdirection)
Volume
Peakhourfactor describestherelationshipbetween
hourlyvolumeandmaximumrateofflowwithinthe hourlyvolumeandmaximumrateofflowwithinthe
hour
PHF=hourlyvolume/maximumrateofflowOR
PHF=V/(4xV
15
)
PHFrange
1 0(each15minuteperiodequal)to
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1.0(each15minuteperiodequal)to
0.25(one15minperiodcontainsalltraffic)
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PeakHourFactorExample
15 min period Vehicle Count Flow Rate (vph)
7:20AM 389 1556
7:35AM 495 1980
7:50AM 376 1504
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8:05AM 363 1452
7:20-8:20AM 1623 1623
PeakHourFactorExample
DeterminethePeakHourFactor
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Chapter5
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QUEUING
Introduction
Macroscopicrelationshipsandanalysesare
l bl b t veryvaluable,but
Aconsiderableamountoftrafficanalysis
occursatthemicroscopiclevel
Inparticular,weoftenareinterestedinthe
elapsed time between the arrival of successive
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elapsedtimebetweenthearrivalofsuccessive
vehicles(i.e.,timeheadway)
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Introduction
Thesimplestapproachtomodelingvehicle
arrivals is to assume a uniform spacing arrivalsistoassumeauniformspacing
Thisresultsinadeterministic,uniformarrival
patterninotherwords,thereisaconstanttime
headwaybetweenallvehicles
However,thisassumptionisusuallyunrealistic,as
vehicle arrivals typically follow a random process
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vehiclearrivalstypicallyfollowarandomprocess
Thus,amodelthatrepresentsarandomarrival
processisusuallyneeded
Introduction
First,toclarifywhatismeantbyrandom:
F f t t b id d t l Forasequenceofeventstobeconsideredtruly
random,twoconditionsmustbemet:
1. Anypointintimeisaslikelyasanyotherforaneventto
occur(e.g.,vehiclearrival)
2. Theoccurrenceofaneventdoesnotaffectthe
probabilityoftheoccurrenceofanotherevent(e.g.,the
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p y ( g ,
arrivalofonevehicleatapointintimedoesnotmakethe
arrivalofthenextvehiclewithinacertaintimeperiod
anymoreorlesslikely)
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Introduction
Onesuchmodelthatfitsthisdescriptionisthe
P i di t ib ti Poissondistribution
ThePoissondistribution:
Isadiscrete(asopposedtocontinuous)
distribution
Iscommonlyreferredtoasacounting
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y g
distribution
Representsthecountdistributionofrandom
events
PoissonDistribution
) (
) (
e t
n P
t n

=
!
) (
n
P(n) =probability of having n vehicles arrive in time t
= average vehicle arrival rate in vehicles per unit time
t=duration of time interval over which vehicles are counted
e=base of the natural logarithm
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e=base of the natural logarithm
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ExampleApplication
Givenanaveragearrivalrateof360veh/hror0.1
vehicles per second; with t=20 seconds; vehiclespersecond;witht=20seconds;
determinetheprobabilitythatexactly0,1,2,3,
and4vehicleswillarrive.
p(1)=
p(2)=
p(3) =
!
) (
) (
n
e t
n P
t n

=
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p(3)=
p(4)=
p(>4)=1 Sigmap(1to4)
ExampleSolution
135 0
) 20 1 . 0 (
) 0 (
) 20 ( 1 . 0 0

e
P
271 . 0
! 1
) 20 1 . 0 (
) 1 (
135 . 0
! 0
) (
) 0 (
) 20 ( 1 . 0 1
=

=
= =

e
P
P
) 5 ( 1 ) 5 ( < = > n P n P
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053 . 0
090 . 0 180 . 0 271 . 0 271 . 0 135 . 0 1
) ( ) (
=
=
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PoissonExample
Example:
Considera1hourtrafficvolumeof120vehicles,
duringwhichtheanalystisinterestedinobtaining
thedistributionof1minutevolumecounts
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PoissonExample#2
(120 h/h ) / (3600 /h ) 0 0333 h/ = (120veh/hr)/(3600sec/hr)=0.0333veh/s
t =0.0333veh/sec 60sec=2veh
= (120veh/hr)/(60min/hr)=2veh/min
t =2veh/min 1min=2veh
OR
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1353 . 0
1
1353 . 0 1
! 0
2
) 0 (
2 0
=

= =

e
P
PoissonExample
#of1minintervalswith
exactlyn vehiclearrivals
probabilityofexactlyn vehicles
arrivingin1mininterval
2707 . 0
1
1353 . 0 2
! 1
2
) 1 (
2 1
=

= =

e
P
2707 . 0
2
1353 . 0 4
! 2
2
) 2 (
2 2
=

= =

e
P
x60min=16.24
x60min=16.24
y g
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1804 . 0
6
1353 . 0 8
! 3
2
) 3 (
2 3
=

= =

e
P
Andsoon
x60min=10.82
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PoissonExample
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16
18
PoissonExample
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
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0
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
# of veh arrivals/minute
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PoissonExample
Whatistheprobabilityofmorethan6cars
i i (i 1 i i t l)? arriving(in1mininterval)?
( ) ( )
( )

=
= =
s = >
6
0
1
6 1 6
i
i n P
n P n P
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( )
(0.5%) or 005 . 0
995 . 0 1
) 012 . 0 036 . 0 090 . 0 180 . 0 271 . 0 271 . 0 135 . 0 ( 1 6
=
=
+ + + + + + = > n P
PoissonExample
Whatistheprobabilityofbetween1and3
i i (i 1 i i t l)? carsarriving(in1mininterval)?
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 2 1 3 1 = + = + = = s s n P n P n P n P
( ) % 0 . 18 % 1 . 27 % 1 . 27 3 1 + + = s s n P
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% 2 . 72 =
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Poissondistribution
TheassumptionofPoissondistributed
hi l i l l i li di t ib ti vehiclearrivalsalsoimpliesadistribution
ofthetimeintervalsbetweenthearrivals
ofsuccessivevehicles(i.e.,timeheadway)
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NegativeExponential
Todemonstratethis,lettheaveragearrivalrate,,
be in units of vehicles per second, so that beinunitsofvehiclespersecond,sothat
3600
q
=
SubstitutingintoPoissonequationyields
sec
veh
h sec
h veh
=
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!
3600
) (
3600
n
e
qt
n P
qt
n

|
.
|

\
|
=
(Eq.5.25)
!
) (
) (
n
e t
n P
t n

=
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NegativeExponential
Notethattheprobabilityofhavingno
hi l i i ti i t l f l th vehiclesarriveinatimeintervaloflength
t [i.e.,P(0)]isequivalenttothe
probabilityofavehicleheadway,h,being
greaterthanorequaltothetimeinterval
t.
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NegativeExponential
SofromEq.5.25,
) ( ) 0 ( t h P P > =
( )
3600
3600
1
1
qt
qt
e
e

= =
(Eq.5.26)
1 ! 0
1
0
=
= x
Note:
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Thisdistributionofvehicleheadwaysisknownasthenegative
exponentialdistribution.
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NegativeExponentialExample
AssumevehiclearrivalsarePoissondistributedwith
an hourly traffic flow of 360 veh/h. anhourlytrafficflowof360veh/h.
Determinetheprobabilitythattheheadway
betweensuccessivevehicleswillbelessthan8
seconds.
Determine the probability that the headway
MohanVenigalla
Determinetheprobabilitythattheheadway
betweensuccessivevehicleswillbebetween8and
11seconds.
NegativeExponentialExample
Bydefinition, ( ) ( ) t h P t h P > = < 1
( ) ( ) 8 1 8 > = < h P h P
( )
1
1 8
3600
) 8 ( 360
3600
= <

e h P
qt
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551 . 0
4493 . 0 1
1
3600
=
=
= e
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NegativeExponentialExample
( ) ( ) ( ) 8 11 11 8 < < < s h P h P h P( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
551 . 0 3329 . 0 1
551 . 0 1
8 11 1
8 11 11 8
3600
) 11 ( 360
=
=
< > =
< < = < s

e
h P h P
h P h P h P
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1161 . 0 =
NegativeExponential
1.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
P
r
o
b

(
h

>
=

t
)
e^(-qt/3600)
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0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Ti me (sec)
Forq =360veh/hr
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NegativeExponential
c.d.f.
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

(
h

<

t
)
1 - e^(-qt/3600)
0.551
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0.0
0.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time (sec)
8
QueuingSystems
Queue waiting line Queue waitingline
Queuingmodels mathematical
descriptionsofqueuingsystems
Examples airplanesawaitingclearancefor
takeofforlanding,computerprintjobs,
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g, p p j ,
patientsscheduledforhospitalsoperating
rooms
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CharacteristicsofQueuing
Systems
Arrival patterns the way in which items or Arrivalpatterns thewayinwhichitemsor
customersarrivetobeservedinasystem
(followingaPoissonDistribution,Uniform
Distribution,etc.)
Servicefacility singleormultiserver
Service pattern the rate at which
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Servicepattern therateatwhich
customersareserviced
Queuingdiscipline FIFO,LIFO
D/D/1QueuingModels
Deterministicarrivals
Deterministicdepartures
1servicelocation(departurechannel)
Bestexamplesmaybefactoryassemblylines
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Example
Vehiclesarriveataparkwhichhasoneentry
i t ( d ll hi l t t ) P k points(andallvehiclesmuststop).Park
opensat8am;vehiclesarriveatarateof480
veh/hr.After20mintheflowratedecreases
to120veh/hrandcontinuesatthatratefor
theremainderoftheday.Ittakes15seconds
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todistributethebrochure.Describethe
queuingmodel.
ExampleSolution
f llt h
s
t veh
hr
hr veh
t veh
hr
hr veh
i / 4
min / 60
min 20 min / 2
min/ 60
/ 120
min 20 min / 8
min/ 60
/ 480
> = =
s = =

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forallt veh
veh s
min / 4
/ 15
= =
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ExampleSolution
Therefore,
Vehiclearrivalscanbedefinedas:
8t fort 20minand
160+2(t 20)fort>20min
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Vehicledeparturescanbedefinedas:
4t forallt
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ExampleContinued
Whenwillthequeuedissipate? q p
160+2(t20)=4t
t=60minutes
Totalvehicledelayis?
Thetotalareabetweenthearrivalanddeparture
curves.
MohanVenigalla
min 2400 ) 40 80 (
2
1
) 20 80 (
2
1
= + = veh D
t
M/D/1QueuingModel
Mstandsforexponentiallydistributedtimes s a ds o e po e a y d s bu ed es
betweenarrivalsofsuccessivevehicles
(Poissonarrivals)
Trafficintensitytermisusedtodefinethe
ratioofaveragearrivaltodeparturerates:

MohanVenigalla

=
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M/D/1Equations
Whentrafficintensityterm<1andconstant
steadystateaveragearrivalanddeparturerates:
) 1 ( 2
) 1 ( 2
2

=
w
Q
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) 1 ( 2
2
) 1 ( 2

t
M/M/1QueuingModels
Exponentiallydistributedarrivalanddeparture po e a y d s bu ed a a a d depa u e
timesandonedeparturechannel
Whentrafficintensityterm<1

=
1
2
Q
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=
1
) (
t
w
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M/M/NQueuingModels
Exponentiallydistributedarrivalanddeparture p y p
timesandmultipledeparturechannels(toll
plazasforexample)
Inthiscase,therestrictiontoapplythese
equationsisthattheutilizationfactormustbe
lessthan1.
MohanVenigalla
0 . 1 <
N

M/M/NModels

P
N N n
c
+
=

1
1
0

Q
w
N N N
P
Q
N N n
N
n c
c
+
=
(

+
+
=

1
) / 1 (
1
!
) / 1 ( ! !
2
1
0
0
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Q
t
w
+
=
=