Professional Documents
Culture Documents
28 November, 2007 1
Jobless growth in India could lead to multifarious social tensions - 100mn jobs to be created in the next 5 yrs! Europe: Socio-political impact on rest of world due to demographic/ religious transformations in Europe
Geo politics:
India encircled by extremist Pakistan, Maoist Nepal, emerging fundamentalism in Bangladesh, internal strife in Sri Lanka & Chinese backed military junta in Myanmar US: May not be able to hold on to Iraq and Afghanistan for long any evacuation of troops will be claimed as victory by fundamentalists and create a very unstable and volatile neighborhood for India China: A superpower with not very honorable designs on India:
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Repeated military incursions into Indian territory by the Chinese in the recent past Reiteration of claim over Arunachal Pradesh (a crucial border state, where we also have Gas)
Sovereignty: Fine print of the agreement being ignored. Signing the deal tantamount to getting into the NPT, which India has avoided thus far Expensive: Even at peak ests, India can only generate about 30000+ MW through nuclear power (ie only 4% of needs) at a huge investment of ~USD 90bn, while compromising on sovereignty & better choices. Eg current Indian T&D losses are multiples of what nuclear energy could provide us the MAJOR thrust should be HERE! Hydel: For the same USD 90 bn, we could underwrite Nepals entire fiscal deficit of USD 1.5bn per annum for the next 60 years & negotiate to get Hydel power with them. This would also cure the perennial problem of floods in UP & Bihar and win an ally in an unfriendly neighborhood
Conference Speakers
Company Name Aditya Birla Nuvo AIA Engineering Bank of Maharashtra Cairn India CCCL Dish TV Emaar MGF ENIL Financial Technologies Future Group Grasim HDIL ICICI Pru Life Idea Cellular Infosys Jai Corp Lanco Moser Baer Mundra Port SEZ NDTV
Source: Bloomberg
Mkt Cap (USD mn) 3,677 733 833 9,525 898 886 Unlisted 622 2,722 8,770 4,439 Unlisted 8,136 23,111 4,501 2,983 1,156 Unlisted 556
Speakers Mr. Adesh Gupta Mr. Bhadresh Shah Mr. M. D. Mallya Mr. Indrajit Banerjee Mr. Sarabeswar Mr. Arun Kapoor Mr. Sanjay Baweja Mr. Subramanian Mr. Shreekant Javalgekar Mr. Kishore Biyani/ S. Sain Mr. Sanjeev Bafna Mr. Sunny Wadhawan Mr. Satyan Jambunathan Mr. Anil Jhala Mr. Mohandas Pai Mr. Anand Jain Mr. G. Venkatesh Mr. Yogesh Mathur Mr. Ameet Desai Mr. Narayan Rao
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Company Name NHPC NTPC Patel Engineering Peninsula Land Punj Lloyd Redington Reliance Energy Reliance Capital RIL Industries State Bank of India Shiram Transport Fin. Sterlite Sun TV Titan Industries UTI AMC Vishal Retail Voltamp WWIL Yes Bank Zee Ltd Zodiac Clothing
Mkt Cap (USD mn) Unlisted 49,218 1,153 783 3,742 806 10,263 14,603 104,524 30,536 1,490 18,489 3,784 1,712 Unlisted 395 414 384 1,631 3,146 101
Speakers Mr. Taneja Mr. A. K. Singhal Mr. Sonal Patel Mr. Rajeev Piramal Mr. Luv Chabbra Mr. Raj Shankar Mr. Lalit Jalan Mr. Praveen Challa Mr. Alok Agarwal Mr S. S. Ranjan Mr. R. Sridhar Mr. Navin Agarwal Mr. K. Maran Mr. K. F. Kapadia Mr. Imtiazur Rahman Mr. R. C. Agarwal Mr. K. S. Patel Mr. Subhash Chandra Mr. Rajat Monga Mr. Pradeep Guha Mr. Anees Noorani
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4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32-33 34-35
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36-37
38
39
40
41-42 43-44
Note: Enam has current investment banking mandates with some cos, whose highlights have been omitted
Revenues
12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 Fertilizers Telecom Telecom 0 Rayon Carbon Black Insulators Textiles Life Ins. (Rs mn)
Fair mix of value & growth businesses. Growth businesses to continue to expand & receive bulk of the investments (~Rs 36.2bn in FY07). Value businesses are in a consolidation mode (cash flow generation of ~Rs 15.5bn in FY07)
Insurance : New products and wider geographical reach (via increase in insurance agents to 1lakh by FY08 end from the 72,000 currently) to drive market share gains and emerge among the Top 3. Targeting 1,000 branches by FY09 from 339 currently Telecom : Idea (mkt share at 9.1%) to continue expansion into tier-2 and tier-3 towns with increased penetration the current focus. Mumbai & Bihar await spectrum allocation Garments : Expects to expand footprint to 5lakh sq. ft. by FY08 end and 10lakh sq. ft. FY10 from 3.6lakh sq. ft. currently. High rentals remain a key concern. To strengthen brand equity and improve retail productivity BPO : Turnaround and scale benefits to improve realizations over the next 2-3 yrs
Garments
Fin. Svcs
Q2FY07
Q2FY08
PBIT
1,500 1,000 500 0 (500) Fertilizers (1,000) Rayon Carbon Black Insulators Textiles Garments Life Ins. Fin. Svcs Software BPO (Rs mn)
Value businesses to continue to aid growth businesses, while maintaining strong positions in respective industries
Increased capacity in Carbon Black, Insulators, Rayon & Textiles Segment to consolidate its existing leading position. Insulators remain a promising opportunity Cash flows from value businesses deployed in growth businesses to drive momentum
Q2FY07
Q2FY08
Financial summary
Y/E Mar 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Sales (Rs mn) 48,136 82,580 100,951 122,075 EBITDA (Rs mn) 6,119 11,421 13,230 16,264 PAT (Rs mn) 2,081 2,804 2,825 3,832 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 34.9 47.7 EPS (Rs.) 24.9 30.1 30.3 41.1 Change (YoY %) 131 21 1 36 P/E (x) 29.8 35.3 52.0 38.3 RoE (%) 13.2 9.9 7.5 9.3
(CMP: Rs 1574) RoCE (%) 12.5 10.5 9.6 12.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.0 13.3 14.6 11.0
Software
BPO
AIA Engineering
Capacity expansion
Capacity expanded from 65,000 MT to 115,000MT in June 2007 Expect further addition of 50,000MT by March 2008 and another 100,000MT by March 2009 depending on SEZ approval
Revenue guidance
FY08E Rs 7bn , FY09E Rs 10-11bn, FY10E- Rs 13bn ( even without the new SEZ) It will take ~1yr to construct the new plant after getting the SEZ notification and involve Rs 1.5bn capex
Q1FY08 result marred by raw material and rupee appreciation, but margins stabilized in Q2FY08
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AIAE has managed to take price hike and reset forex cover at Rs.39
The management believes that OPMs of at least 22-24% are sustainable going forward
Response remains good, but will take orders only after new plant capacity stabilizes in 3-4months time Mining market at 2.25 mn MT; growing at 3-4% p.a.
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Currently over 95% is addressed by forged mill internals as against high chrome mill internals of AIAE
Financial summary
Y/E Mar 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Sales (Rs mn) 4,067 5,230 7,542 11,367 PAT (Rs mn) 533 946 1,315 2,073 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 66.9 93.7 EPS (Rs.) 30.0 50.3 70.0 110.3 Change (YoY %) 43 68 39 58 P/E (x) 20.5 23.9 21.2 13.5 RoE (%) 28.4 24.1 23.3 28.6 RoCE (%) 36.5 31.7 31.5 37.7
(CMP: Rs 1486) EV/EBITDA (x) 11.3 15.5 14.4 9.0 DPS (Rs) 2.9 3.6 3.8 4.0
Bank of Maharashtra
Expand branch network
Planning 35-40 new branches this year, of which 20-25 would be in Maharashtra 310 branches are already under CBS and another 290 branches would be brought under CBS covering 90% of the branch network by Mar 2008
Expect improvement in NIM during the second half of FY08 Asset quality to improve, targeting GNPA levels of ~2.5% and NNPA of ~0.8% by March 2008 CASA expected to be in the range of ~43% by March-08 and deposit growth of ~25% expected
Initiatives
Customer database for better customer management is being developed and a fully developed software would be rolled out in 8-9 months time Providing extensive training to staff members to adopt to the new technology initiatives Increased cross selling of products in retail space
Cairn India
Rajasthan block development on track
Peak production from Northern fields (mainly MBA fields) to be 10-15% greater than the earlier reported 150,000 bpd, on account of revised production target for Bhagyam field (40,000 bpd against 25,000 bpd earlier). FDP for Bhagyam expected to be approved soon. Preparation of Mangala FDP addendum underway could bring further upside. First oil expected by 2H CY2010 Preliminary study for implementation of EOR techniques at MBA fields has shown encouraging results. Early implementation of this could result in improving recovery factor by 15-30% (from earlier 30%) and extend the production plateau by 4-6 years
Crude evacuation pipeline from Mangala to Salaya has been approved by the Government and the coordination with the State Governments is underway for land related issues. The pipeline is expected to be complete in next 18-20 months Issues related to cess sharing and pricing of Rajasthan crude to be settled in 6-9 months( need to be resolved 6 months prior to first oil)
CIL a pure play on crude prices, the outlook for which remains strong Upside potential exists from 12 blocks in exploration stage in addition to two producing and one development block
(CMP: Rs 208) PAT (Rs mn) 3,238 2,601 21,828 57,289 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 1.2 1.6 21.7 30.8 EPS (Rs.) 1.8 1.5 12.3 32.2 Change (YoY %) (1,629.5) (19.7) 739.3 162.5 P/E (x) 0.0 0.0 142.4 17.0 RoE (%) 6.0 4.6 32.7 56.2 RoCE (%) 8.5 6.6 34.2 63.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 187.5 (3.3) 79.7 12.8 DPS (Rs) 0.2 0.2 1.4 3.7 Sales (Rs mn) 8,788 8,200 36,330 84,795
Financial summary
Y/E Dec 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Repeat clients account for 57%.; avg. ticket size for repeat clients compared to new clients (Rs 245mn v/s Rs 147mn)
Revenue guidance of 100%+ growth for FY08E; going forward overall 45% CAGR in top line and OPM of ~11% expected
Margins to improve only due to change in business mix with higher proportion of M&E and interiors coming in
Hurdle rate of 25% ROCE for undertaking any project; balance sheet reflects the same
HFY08 net working capital at Rs 3.2bn or 21% of annualized turnover ( well below industry average of 35-40%) Working capital loans of Rs 1.4bn on books, cash of Rs 816mn and net Worth of Rs 2bn
The company aims to be the leader in buildings and factory construction sector by 2012 In process of finalizing JV partner ( US based co.) for targeting airport orders of over Rs 5bn Also formed JV with ABB and Spic Jurong of Singapore to bid for thermal power plants construction Exploring possibility of JV to enter heavy civil works such as BoP for steel plants, oil and gas pipelines
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Sales (Rs mn) 4,252 8,633 17,925 26,841 PAT (Rs mn) 190 476 1,245 1,875 EPS (Rs.) 6.4 14.3 33.7 50.7 Change (YoY %) (16) 125 135 51 P/E (x) 126.1 150.4 67.0 28.5 RoE (%) 23.3 29.2 36.6 32.0 RoCE (%) 30.2 30.2 39.9 35.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 69.0 82.8 46.2 18.9
Dish TV
Dish TV leads with 2.4mn subscribers to touch 7.9mn by 2011E (@ 20,000 subs. per week)
Revenues to grow from Rs 1.9bn (2007) to Rs 31.6bn by 2011E. Breakeven expected at ~4-4.5mn subscribers (2010) Acquisition cost of Rs 1,600 per subscriber ( Cost is capitalized and written off over 5 yrs) to be recovered in 1-1.5 yrs First-mover advantage
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Largest DTH service offering of 170 channels. Dish will have attained considerable economies of scale before competition sets in DTH operators could command carriage fees from some channels, which is a first in the global DTH industry Tie up with Star, Sony and now Sun TV. Tie-up Disney for movies. Zee library will also be leveraged Exclusivity of content (produced in house) seen as a possibility going forward Sun Direct- Dec 07; Reliance Blue magic Apr 08, Bharti Dec 08 However, transponder capacity still a constraint. Dish will be the only company with capacity of 350+ channels for the next two years Key fundamentals of survival Distribution, branding & content: Main challenge now is to increase ARPUs
Financials
Increasing subscriber base to provide substantial operating leverage. Agreements with content providers are on a sliding scale basis, thereby reducing content cost as subscriber base grows
Current investment of Rs 8bn deployed. Funding over next 3 years @ ~Rs 11bn. via debt (60%) and equity (40%)
(CMP Rs: 83) Sales (Rs. mn) 205 1,758 PAT (Rs. mn) (875) (2,042) EPS (Rs.) (20.4) (47.7) Change YoY (%) 133 RoE (%) (159.1) (137.4) RoCE (%) (89.2) (81.2)
Financial summary
Y/E Mar 2006 2007
Source: Company, ENAM estimates
ENIL
Retains market leadership with ~50% revenue share
Reach: 24mn listeners - No. 1 pan-India with no consistent No. 2 Recently expanded network via tie up with 10 stations
10 8 6 4 2 0
18 of these launched; remaining to be operational in Q3FY08 10 stations operational at end-FY07. Broken even (OPM 33-34%)
Key drivers
Ad rate hikes in FY08 - 1) 10% in Delhi and Pune in August: 2) 15% for entire network in September Increased ad inventory by 4 hrs. with utilization at 42% Effective pricing across all 24 stations is Rs 11,600 (H1FY08) Revenue split -OOH: 50%, Radio: 40-42% and Events: 5-8%
ILT Wave 9
Radio Mirchi
Business strategy
Radio: 2 fold intl. expansion - Indian content in mature markets and mainstream content in underdeveloped markets Out-of-home (OOH): Renewed focus with plans to raise Rs 5bn over 2-3 yrs. (Rs 2bn through private equity in TIML by Dec 07) Event Mgmt: (Alternate Brand Solutions) - ~700 events done - Plans to focus on owned events rather than managed events.
Competition from BIG FM, Suryan & SFM in top 13 towns (~70% of ad spend) could see fragmentation
Sales (Rs mn) PAT (Rs mn) Consensus EPS* (Rs.) EPS (Rs.)
Financial summary
Y/E March
2006 2007
1,374 2,351
212 251
6.7
4.5 5.3
18
49.2 62.7
16.0 9.0
18.9 7.5
27.3 39.2
0.0 0.0
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Financial Technologies
Growth Strategy : Leverage growth through its exchange technology platform and transaction centric business model. Focus on innovation and value creation. Update on Key Ventures
MCX : Growth drivers include new product launches, strategic domestic/ global alliances, market share gains and anticipated regulatory developments DGCX : Strategic placement on account of geographical location, time zone, marquee membership and benefits from 50-yr tax holiday IBES Forex : Growth drivers include new products, new currency trading and retail / corporate participation NSEL : Targeting roll-outs in key states in the first phase NBHC: Pan-India network platform for collateral management services SNX : Focussed on promoting trading in targeted products, online price dissemination and efficient warehouse-based delivery system Other initiatives include Riskraft (for Consulting services), Tickerplant Infovending (for delivery of real-time market data in an intelligent user-friendly format), and Atom technologies (for enabling transactions on mobile)
Perpetual and Growing Revenue Stream Software revenue Tech licensing revenue Annual maintenance contracts (AMC) Svcs revenue STP, NCG, Consultancy and customization Customers : Exchanges Brokerage houses DPs, fund houses, AMCs, custodians
Group Revenues
Exchange Revenues
Software Exchange Income/Dividend from investments Income from dilution in equity stake in subs/ JVs
Financial summary
Y/E March Sales (Rs mn) 574 1,820 2,645 PAT (Rs mn) 196 666 698 EPS (Rs.) 4.8 15.0 14.2 Change (YoY %) 288 215 (5) P/E (x) 55.4 113.9 128.8 RoE (%) 25.9 23.3 16.6
(CMP: Rs 2376) RoCE (%) 40.3 41.4 24.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 30.6 61.3 54.3
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Grasim
A cement and VSF major
31mn tonnes of cement capacity (including 17mtpa of 51% UltraTech). 2nd largest cement producer in India Worlds top producer of Viscose Staple Fibre (VSF) with a global market share of 11% Largest merchant producer of sponge iron in India with a capacity of 900,000 tonnes p.a.
Cement: Capacity to be expanded to 48mn tonnes by FY09, from 31mn tonnes. Volume CAGR of ~13% over next three years Brownfield expansion - Shambhupura plant (4mn tonnes) and Tadipatri plant (5mn tonnes) to be operational by March 2008 Greenfield projects: Kotputli plant (4mn tonnes) to commence production by September 2008 VSF: Capacity ramp-up from 270,000 tonnes to 453,000 tonnes. Sales volume to grow at CAGR of 8% over next three years Source of funding: Largely from internal accruals with current gearing of 0.51x
Outlook
Cement Sector outlook remains favorable with demand growth of 10% and delay in commissioning of announced capacity VSF Prices to remain firm because of strong demand from comfort fabric and knitted fibres. Volume growth to further boost operating profits of the company
(CMP: Rs 3793) Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 254.1 291.2 280.0 EPS (Rs.) 199.2 266.3 302.1 308.5 Change (YoY %) 103 34 13 2 P/E (x) 10.5 14.2 12.6 12.3 RoE (%) 28 28 24 19 RoCE (%) 33 32 31 28 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 8.7 7.3 6.7 DPS (Rs) 31.4 31.4 31.4 32.9 Sales (Rs mn) 136,033 163,065 195,943 212,769 PAT (Rs mn) 18,263 24,416 27,702 28,290
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HDIL
New acquisitions/ developments since listing
Kharadi, Pune: JDA of 1.2mn sq.ft. (66% IT/ITES & 34% residential development planned) Navi Mumbai: 15 acres acquired from Eveready for Rs. 1.15bn. (IT/ITES of 2mn sq.ft.) Bhandup: 8.32 acres acquired from Kilburn for Rs. 1.25bn. (IT/ITES of 1.2mn sq.ft.) Kochi: 70 acres of land at Airport sea road acquired from HMT. (IT city of 8mn sq.ft.) HDIL owns 45% of DS Corp. which intends to develop & own a hotel in Juhu, Mumbai; currently searching for an international hotel operator
Project timeline: 4.5 years with estimated revenues of Rs 150- 180bn Phase I Rehab of 20,000 families to start next year Existing FSI of 2.5 plans to approach GoM for higher FSI (of 4.0) considering density of slum dwellers Have tied up 180 acres of land (@ Rs 100-120mn/ acre) in various pockets within 5 kms of Dharavi to rehabilitate displaced slums To result in ~32mn sq. ft. of TDRs and ~7.5mn sq. ft. of saleable area translating into ~Rs 320-350 per share
JLL & PWC appointed for screening the 26 bids received from various developers/ consortium 7-8 bidders expected to be short listed by Dec-07 (funds from allotment to help clear GoMs deficit before upcoming elections)
More than 600 employees (>200 engineers, >100 architects, >25 CAs/MBAs) & 12,000 contract labourers ~70mn sq. ft. of ongoing projects (incl. airport) to be completed in 5 years (completed ~8-10mn in FY07)
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Valuation * NAV Price/ NAV (x) SOTP Value Price/ SOTP (x) (Rs) 1,015 0.75 965 0.79
Source: Company, ENAM estimates; *Base case scenario. SOTP Range: Rs 776 Rs 1,246
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Industry grew 37% during H1FY08. Private sector to grow by 60-70% this fiscal
Penetration to improve from the current level of 4.1% of GDP to 6 - 6.5% by 2010
Non agency business increased to 40% in Oct-07 from 30% in March 2005 20% of business comes from ICICI Bank which is 50% of non agency business. Balance from distributors and agents
Growth drivers
More than product innovation the primary growth driver is the geographical reach of the company Company operates out of 1,010 branches in 701 locations and 211,000 advisors (Oct 2007)
Future Plans
Expand the distribution in Tier II and Tier III cities. Low rural penetration offers opportunities for growth Expand the health products from the current 8 health products including critical illness cover for Type II diabetes and hospitalization care
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Idea Cellular
Growth momentum intact, amidst spectrum imbroglio
Q1FY07
Q2FY07
Q3FY07
Q4FY07
Q1FY08
Expects a tower company to be formed with pooled resources from key GSM vendors. Positive for industry as (1) tower duplication reduced (2) move towards consolidation in the tower industry and (3) higher visibility on tenancy ratio Idea strategically placed: Adds ~ 700-800 towers a month and would be a strong client for the consolidated tower entity given its growth plan in additional 11 circles
Expects ARPUs and MoUs to fall for a while as rural penetration increases. New users typically wait for a while before increasing MoUs. This is an industry phenomenon Rationalization in some life-time plans to reduce the number of free minutes. Expects that to provide some support to falling revenue per minute
Financial summary
Y/E Mar Sales (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs.) PAT (Rs mn) Consensus EPS* (Rs.) EPS (Rs.) Change (YoY %) P/E (x)
3.9 5.3
Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Idea Monthly Net adds (LHS) Share of Net adds (RHS)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Q2FY08
New rollouts : Services in Mumbai and Bihar circle to commence within 2 quarters of allocation of spectrum. Capex for additional circles to be ~USD 1.2 bn Additional Growth Opportunities : Through entry into ILD and data businesses Spectrum Issue : Unlikely to impact subscriber growth barring one city. Expect resolution by the Ministry and Govt. GSM operators can be expected to go till the Supreme Court to resolve matters. As expected, DoT likely to follow a middle path between TRAIs and TECs recommendations
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Infosys
Concerns overdone, USD growth intact
Revenues (LHS)
Expects Indian vendors to emerge as global leaders within next 2-3 years Operating levers include better pricing (through higher share of high-end services like Consultancy, Solutions based offerings, Package implementation etc), increase in utilisation rates, onsite : offshore mix, better client mining, scale economies, higher solutions based delivery that are industry specific etc
May look to expand into new geographies (Japan, Germany and France), enhancing new capabilities (Consultancy and solutions) or building expertise in new verticals (healthcare and life sciences) We expect cash balance of > USD 4bn in FY10E. This is sizeable
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Sales (Rs mn) 95,216 138,930 170,380 222,269 PAT (Rs mn) 24,395 37,304 46,018 57,705 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 80.3 98.1 EPS (Rs.) 44.7 66.3 80.6 101.0 Change (YoY %) 31 48 22 25 P/E (x) 33.4 30.4 19.5 15.5 RoE (%) 39.5 40.8 35.0 33.2 RoCE (%) 45.2 46.4 40.3 39.2
1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 QoQ growth (RHS)
CY08 IT Budgets : Expect clear indication by end-Jan 2008. Impact of decrease in discretionary spending on overall revenues is expected to marginal (if any as only 3-4% of revenues would be impacted) Currency : 3-4% YoY appreciation manageable. Wider fluctuations can be managed to a certain extent by operating levers Wage Inflation : Its robust pyramid structure ensures wage inflation within limits (2-3% for onsite and 4-5% for offshore is the YoY increase in per capita expense)
(CMP: Rs 1570) EV/EBITDA (x) 25.0 24.5 15.4 11.2 DPS (Rs) 22.7 11.5 13.6 17.2
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Jai Corp
Navi Mumbai development plans on track
Winning formula of size, proximity, connectivity, world class infra, globally competitive utilities & services
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Thane
NH 4
NMSEZ: 5,260 acres; MSEZ - ~5,000+ acres acquired Intl Airport: Investment of Rs 90bn; bidding by Dec-08 Execution capabilities ramped up significantly- Over 1,200 employees currently working on SEZ initiative
Existing Airport
Financial closure for both SEZs achieved - Investment of ~USD 400bn envisaged (Rs 50bn already invested)
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To Thane
To result in an additional ~USD 4,000bn of investments ~2mn jobs; ~USD 25bn of exports, generation of ~USD 2.5bn of taxes, annual purchasing power of ~USD 12.5bn
Navi Mumbai
B Palm
4 NH
Mumbai
MTHL
Only way to expand JNPT
arg each M
CBD
Proposed Airport
54 H SN H4
AY SW ES PR EX NE PU AI 4 NH MB MU
D MbPT
Uran
NMSEZ
4B
SH
Core biz: Venture capital To launch several additional funds (offshore, domestic, overseas real estate) Existing biz: Steel to be hived off, expand plastics
PANVEL
B
54
D
NH
NH 17
NH 17
Enabling GoM agencies to generate cash key so as to solve Mumbais infra bottlenecks
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SH 54
Govt. agencies like MHADA, MMRDA, MSTRC sitting on large assets (~Rs 100bn) unlocking of the same critical Creation of infra TDR to be loaded on existing cities
REWAS (PROPOSED)
MSEZ
Raigad
Source: Company
17
Lanco Infratech
Power division
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Target capacity addition of 3475MW i.e. from 518 MW in 2007 to 3,900 MW by 2011 Further projects worth 7,480MW are at an drawing board stages
400MW (Kondapalli), 600MW (Amarkantak)- fuel linkage in place Finalizing plans for 2,640MW thermal plant in Orissa ( captive mine 1,000MW; coal linkage 1,320MW; balance pending MOU with Madhya Pradesh (1,200MW) and Jharkhand(2,640MW) Trying to secure coal linkages
Real Estate
Lanco Hills : Plans to develop 19.8 mn.sq.ft. on course (11.6 mn.sq.ft. commercial, balance residential) Chennai (47.8 acre): JDA with 55% stake, expected to have 4-4.5 mn.sq.ft area with Rs 2,700-3,000 selling rate Kokapet, Hyderabad (21.8 acre): 15km away from new int. airport, no development plan as yet Currently has two road projects, with ~17% equity IRR Plans to foray into electricity transmission & port project
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Infrastructure
Order book of ~USD 1.9bn, targeting 18-20% OPMs on construction projects Order book doesnt include additional power capacity planned, which could lead to a substantial rise in the order book Recently won an order for Varanasi Airport, which will help in additional airport orders
(CMP: Rs 487) PAT (Rs mn) Consensus EPS* (Rs.) EPS (Rs.) Change (YoY %) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/EBITDA (x)
Financial summary
Y/E March Sales (Rs mn)
54 62 79
18
Moser Baer
Optical media business to remain steady
Optical Media Business to grow at a CAGR of 20-25% over next 3 years Margins to sustain Global DVDR/RW shipments to grow over 43% in 2007 to approximately 9 billion units 2HFY08 to witness initial mass market shipments of Blu Laser products Short term pricing to remain impacted till resolution of license issue of Philips and rupee appreciation Adverse impact in October due to generator shut down Optical Media Margins sustainable around 30% range
PV business
Moser Baer has strategic ties ups across the PV value chain like Solaria and SolFocus Commercial Shipments begin during the Q1FY08 with 90%+ yields on 40 MW line Large scale, 8 year supply contract with REC in place Construction of thin film facility under way ready by November 2007, production by CYQ1/2 08
Entertainment
Acquisition of 9500 titles Strong distribution network - titles to be available in 100,000 outlets across country Business model is highly scalable break even in FY08
(CMP Rs: 258) PAT (Rs. mn) 664 (71) 788 EPS (Rs.) 6.0 (0.6) 7.1 ChangeYoY (%) P/E (x) 35.1 42.3 RoE (%) 6.6 (0.4) 3.9 RoCE (%) 6.1 2.3 5.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.7 11.5 9.9 DPS (Rs.) 1.0 1.0 1.5
Financial summary
Y/E Mar 2005 2006 2007 Sales (Rs.mn) 12,804 16,641 19,840
19
NDTV
Core business
NDTV 24X7 leading English News - ad rate premium ranging between 25-30%; NDTV Indias revenues not suffered in spite of lower ratings due to a steady advertiser base; NDTV Profit to see operating leverage kick in
New channels
Astro Awani in Malaysia through JV with Astro. Astro has offered an additional stake to NDTV in the JV (currently 20%) NDTV Arabia targeting Indian Diaspora in Middle East & North Africa. NDTV MetroNation (Delhi): City-centric news & infotainment channel. Next launch in Chennai (by end-FY08), followed by Mumbai, Bangalore and Kolkata (in FY09). NDTV Good Times: The 5-yr, Rs 1bn ad deal with Kingfisher to result in ~140% of its targeted 1st year revs. (To utilize 10% of inventory.)
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Good Times success has enabled earlier-than-planned launches of 2 additional lifestyle channels. Investment: Rs 250-300 mn per channel.
NDTV Imagine
Content incorporates subtle differentiation within the confines of the mass GEC space through innovation in soaps, format shows and reality shows. The channel is exercising complete control over content production Distribution in place with 90% penetration targeted. Aim is to ensure position amongst top 3 in GEC. Channel to be free-to-air initially Of the USD 120mn raised by NDTV Networks, ~USD 80mn has been invested in Imagine
(CMP Rs: 349) PAT (Rs. mn) 259 203 EPS (Rs.) 4.3 3.3 Change YoY (%) -29 -22 P/E (x) 60.3 93.9 RoE (%) 12.3 7.4 RoCE (%) 14.3 4.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 36.3 61
Financial summary
Y/E Mar 2006 2007 Sales (Rs. mn) 2,210 2,784
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NDTV (Continued)
NDTV Convergence
NDTV has opted to build internet properties rather than taking the inorganic route. It has recently revamped its cricket site cricketndtv.com, which now includes features like live, ball-by-ball commentary and chat NDTV is betting on mobile internet gaining traction and plans a full-fledged launch of its mobile portal, NDTV Active, by mid-December
With the USD 120mn fund raising, required capital for current plans has been completely tied-up
21
NTPC
Capex & Capacity Addition
Management confident of achieving 50GW capacity by 2012 and 75GW by 2017, ~14GW capacity already under construction and balance 8GW will be awarded by December 2007 Capex of ~USD40bn over 2007-12 to be funded through internal accruals and debt
Capacity expansion
Present Power Generation (MW) 27,904 -2.66 -2011-12 50,004 15 10 1,000 2016-17 ~ 75,000 ~ 47 25 2,000
(Prodn) (MTPA)
Trading (Units Traded) (BU) Distribution
Coal Mining
Coal Linkages
Recently awarded 8 coal blocks with Mineable Reserves of 2.8bn tons Mining capex of USD2bn over 2007-12 Managements base case expectation is 14% ROE and realistic case of Coal India prices of USD 20-25 per ton
(Capacity) (MW)
NTPC by 2017
Coal 66%
ROE Maximization
Current PLF of ~90% is sustainable over next 10 yrs. Hence, ROE will be in excess of regulated returns of 14% at ~18% Company is trying to maximize ROE through selling waste ash, merchant sales, and carbon credits from its new hydro & super critical power plants
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Sales (Rs mn) 261,452 309,557 422,342 474,434 PAT (Rs mn) 60,672 68,497 78,783 85,894 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 9.4 10.4 EPS (Rs.) 7.4 8.3 9.6 10.4 Change (YoY %) 17 13 15 9
JV 7%
Hydro 12%
Gas 11%
(CMP: Rs 231) EV/EBITDA (x) 16.2 15.8 14.7 13.9 BVPS (Rs) 54.5 59.7 65.9 71.8
22
Patel Engineering
Revenues and order book
Current order backlog at Rs 54bn PEL expects revenues CAGR of 30%+ going forward driven by both infra and real estate businesses
Real Estate
Current land bank is 1,000 acre in Hyderabad, Chennai, Bangalore, Mumbai and Panvel Development plans for 15.63 mn.sq.ft. (~12% of the land bank) in place The management intends to maintain the land bank at the same level as it executes projects
Power
MOU signed for 1,200MW imported coal based thermal power project at Bhavnagar; to hold 51% stake in the project
` `
PELs equity commitment will be to the tune of Rs 6bn and will be funded through proceeds of Real Estate Scouting for coal mines to secure its fuel supply
Recently signed MoU for 100MW hydropower plant in Arunachal Pradesh on IPP basis Has also bid for another 600MW worth of hydro power projects on an IPP basis
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Sales (Rs mn) 10,147 12,956 17,200 21,322 PAT (Rs mn) 722 1,055 1,038 1,408 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 18.3 24.6 EPS (Rs.) 14.4 17.7 17.4 23.6 Change (YoY %) 73 22 (2) 36 P/E^ (x) 24.0 13.5 8.9 6.5 RoE (%) 37.3 22.6 13.7 16.2 Core RoCE (%) 26.7 19.7 20.9 24.2
(CMP: Rs 761) EV/EBITDA^ (x) 15.7 9.3 5.0 3.7 VOI (Rs) 127 100 607 607
Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, ENAM estimates, ^Adjusted for VOI
23
Peninsula Land
Key highlights
Continued focus on Mumbai (~4mn sq. ft.), with expansion to other cities in last 18 months (~31mn) Expecting ~USD 700mn (PBT) from Mumbai projects in 24-30 months Lack of supply to keep Mumbai prices buoyant
`
Total mill land of 600 acres, of which 30-40% already developed/ under development; only 3-4 more plots in BKC to come up for bidding; redevelopment of old bldgs Rent Act not in favour of redevelopment & not enough FSI to make such projects viable
Hence, no slowdown in Mumbai realty prices seen, especially for the quality commercial space Key project highlights
` ` `
Dawn Mills minor setback as govt. re-thinking allowing usage of suburban land for MHADAs share of property Hyderabad acquired 30 acres totaling ~5mn sq. ft. SEZs Jurong appointed for master planning
Growth strategy
1st mover advantage to be key to avoid localized oversupply of real estate space- enough opportunity seen in all cities Beefing execution by possible tie ups with international contractors/ acquiring strategic stake in local contractors
` ` ` `
Doubling of employee base to 260; structured re-organization with regional delegation of authority 2 funds (domestic and offshore) of ~USD 450mn to pursue opportunities with IRR > 30% (domestic commitments of USD 50-60mn recd) Financial closure to be achieved by March 2008 15% exposure of fund to Mumbai, with balance spread over 10-11 cities (CMP Rs: 126) Sales (Rs mn) 2,748 3,194 PAT (Rs mn) 1,387 1,572 EPS (Rs) 32.9 37.4 Change YoY (%) 733 13 RoE (%) 103.4
Financial summary
Y/E Mar 2006 2007
Source: Company, ENAM estimates
24
Punj Lloyd
Revenue & margins
The management expects USD 2bn+ in revenues for FY08 and aims to be a USD 5bn company by FY11 New orders in Sembawang are having OPM at 7%+ compared to legacy orders, which had OPM of 1-2% New orders in Punj are at 11%+ OPM; the management expects an improvement of 50-100bps pa in line with overall industry margins
Current order backlog stands at USD4.3bn of which USD2.9bn is for core business & USD1.4bn is for Sembawang Legacy orders of Sembawang stand at ~USD325mn and will be executed over next 12-15 months Core business has 38 projects in hand while Sembawang has another ~10 projects Group execution cycle to remain in the range of 24-26 months
Sees Middle-East and India as key markets globally, focusing on increasing share of revenues from Middle-East Also, upgradation of refineries in EU for compliance with Euro III and Euro IV norms provides a USD 15bn opportunity To focus only on bigger contracts & targeting average order size of USD250mn from the current US150mn Punj will also be investing ~USD11mn for purchase of 6 onshore rigs and has placed orders for 2 x 1500HP rigs
(CMP: Rs 456) PAT (Rs mn) 1,610 3,365 5,238 7,967 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 11.5 17.4 23.5 EPS (Rs.) 5.7 10.5 16.3 24.8 Change (YoY %) 328 83 56 52 P/E (x) 28.4 43.5 28.0 18.4 RoE (%) 13.5 17.1 18.0 22.5 RoCE (%) 14.9 17.2 18.8 22.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 20.4 14.2 10.0 DPS (Rs) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7
Financial summary
Y/E March 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Sales (Rs mn) 51,266 80,365 109,330 144,042
25
Redington India
Leading integrated SCM player
Leads Growth : Through existing product lines (market share gains, postsales support services), addition of new products in existing verticals, foray into new verticals that have higher margins & have negative working capital cycle and exploring new geographies (identified CIS & Vietnam as new target markets) Unparalleled Distribution network : To leverage on low penetration in India (<2%) through its 13,000+ channel partners, 40 brands and superior logistics capabilities. Middle East operations have 2,800+ channel partners & 19 brands Differentiates itself from its key competitor (mainly Ingram Micro in India) by providing support for the products during warranty and post warranty period and handling SCM for non-IT products
To enable higher growth and improve leverage with credit rating intact. Business development by targeting third party receivables Leveraging its best A/R management practices and robust MIS systems (Bad debts incl. provisions less than 0.09% of sales in India)
Source: Dataquest. Includes only the agency revenues, product revenues excluded for all the products
Q3 is seasonally lukewarm as it is the last financial quarter for one of its key competitors in India Financial summary
Sales (Rs mn) 67,906 90,614 113,445 141,219 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,267 1,927 2,442 3,096 PAT (Rs mn) 720 1,017 1,363 1,740 EPS (Rs.) 11.4 13.1 17.5 22.3 Change (YoY %) 58 14 34 28 P/E (x) 10.5 23.4 18.4 RoE (%) 18.8 19.2 20.3 22.4 RoCE (%) 17.1 17.3 17.6 19.4
(CMP: Rs 410) EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 7.6 15.2 12.2 DPS (Rs) 2.5 3.5 4.5
26
Reliance Capital
Current AUM of USD 20bn, 65% of which is in debt schemes and balance 35% in equity Fund management
Currently managing offshore fund of USD 150mn. Strategy is to establish a good track record and then raise global fund Awaiting SEBI approval for investment into India through fund registered in Mauritius. Plan to raise ~USD 1bn
Expansion plans
Planning to grow loan book to Rs 60bn by March 2008 from the current Rs 30bn Unsecured personal loans are capped at 20% of the book Expand the reach by opening 10,000 outlets in 5,000 locations by Dec 2008. Around 90% of them to be franchisee outlets. To scale up life insurance distribution network from the current 350 branches and 150,000 agents to 750 branches and 350,000 agents On the broking side, already started portfolio advisory and would be starting margin funding business
Proprietary book has listed investments of Rs 15bn (at cost), market value of Rs 65bn
27
Reliance Industries
KG-D6 development on track
KG-D6 A1/A3 development plan remains on track with first gas expected by July 2008. 16 out of 18 development wells have been drilled and fast progress is taking place for onshore and offshore facilities. East-West pipeline for transportation of KG-D6 gas is expected to be complete by March 2008. Initial production at 40 MMSCMD, which will be ramped up to 80 MMSCMD by mid of 2009 First oil from MA cretaceous section in the block is expected by 4Q CY2010 with initial production of 40,000 bpd
Work on RPLs refinery is over 70% complete and the refinery is likely to get commissioned at least three months ahead of the scheduled date of completion i.e. December 2008
Refining business to benefit from robust refining margin outlook on account of delay in commissioning of new capacities, high global refinery operating levels and its higher refinery complexity Delay in petrochemicals projects mainly in the Middle East and strong domestic demand for both polyesters and polymers, will keep integrated petchem margins healthy till 2010 end
Addition of 5 deep-sea rigs and 1 jack-up rig in next 18-24 months to its exiting fleet will help RIL to fasten its exploration activity. The company plans to drill 100 exploratory wells in next 3-4 years
(CMP: Rs 2786) PAT (Rs mn) 94,979 120,748 141,591 187,165 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 94.1 109.4 EPS (Rs.) 68.2 76.7 90.0 119.0 Change (YoY %) 24 13 17 32 P/E (x) 11.7 17.8 31.0 23.4 RoE (%) 19.2 17.2 15.7 17.9 RoCE (%) 17.1 15.6 13.3 15.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.1 12.5 21.6 15.0 DPS (Rs) 11.4 10.4 14.3 16.1 Sales (Rs mn) 831,172 1,138,896 1,143,606 1,389,891
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
28
Customer base of 90mn on standalone basis and ~146mn together with associates Highest market shares on standalone basis in advances and deposits at 15.4% Network of 9,668 branches on standalone basis and 14,670 branches including associates
Key Initiatives
Derisk the Investment portfolio and to improve the fee based income To increase the market share of inward remittances from the current 25% To expand rural reach by adding 40 million new customers in 3 years To establish presence in 1,00,000 villages Start Private Equity and Venture Capital business very soon Offer better customer services by creating better customer focused products Recruitment and training of frontline staff Improve asset quality by an improved credit selection and emphasis on restructuring of impaired assets Sell NPLs to ARCIL and other third parties
(CMP: Rs 2300) RoE (%) 15.9 16.0 18.5 18.1 RoA (%) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
Source: Company, ENAM estimates*P/B and P/E adjusted for the value of Life Insurance, estimated at Rs.280 p/s
29
~Rs 150bn of assets under management. Expect to double the AUM by 2010 70% of the portfolio consist of the pre-owned vehicles
Scale up the new truck financing business Foray into new segments like 3-wheeler financing, tractor and construction equipment financing Entered into tie-up with Mahindra & Mahindra for used tractor financing
Credit losses average ~2% and during a downswing in the business may expand by another 75bps Risk of asset liability mismatch minimal with asset life of 36-46 months and liabilities ~36 months
Future plans
Roping in local private financers to expand business reach by leveraging their network Ashley Transport (40% owned by Shriram, 60% by Ashok Leyland) to tap into Rs 80-100bn challan discounting market
Financial summary
Y/E Mar 2006 2007 2008E 2009E PAT (Rs mn) 1,380 1,904 3,647 4,935 EPS (Rs ) 9 10 18 24 Change YoY (%) 12.7 73.1 34.5 P/E (x) 31.1 27.6 15.9 11.8 BV (Rs ) 48 58 87 105 P/BV (x) 5.9 4.9 3.3 2.7 NPAs (%) 0.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 P/Adj.BV (x) 6.1 5.3 3.5 2.9
(CMP: Rs 285) RoE RoA (%) (%) 26.6 3.0 20.2 2.5 25.6 3.2 25.1 3.4
Source: Company, ENAM Research; * FY06 onwards, numbers are pro-forma merged with SOF
30
Sterlite
Aggressive expansion plans
Zinc & Lead: Capacity: To raise combined zinc and lead capacity to 754 ktpa by 2008 from 496 ktpa currently Aluminium: Additional 500 ktpa aluminum in 30% owned Vedanta alumina Commercial Energy - Power: Implementing 2,400 MW power project to be commissioned progressively from Q3FY09. To add upto 10,000 MW over the next 5 yrs
Huge talent pool drawn from the engineering, business management, human resource and finance functions Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for its senior management as well as young professionals
Zinc: High grade ore containing reserves of ~209.4mn tonnes (mine life of ~20 years at 1 mtpa production) Aluminum: Bauxite - 150mn tonnes reserve Commercial Energy: Coal blocks containing ~320mn tonnes of coal have been secured
65%
Company
Business
Financial summary
Y/E Mar 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Sales (Rs mn) 245,058 250,183 248,852 268,703 Adj.PAT (Rs mn) 42,771 54,874 63,872 69,976 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 66.6 75.6 EPS (Rs.) 60.4 77.5 90.2 98.8 Change (YoY %) 161 28 16 10 P/E (x) 7.8 13.4 11.5 10.5 RoE (%) 40 40 44 46 RoCE (%) 58 45 47 48
(CMP: Rs 1035) EV/EBITDA (x) 3.7 8.0 6.9 5.8 DPS (Rs) 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.0
Source: *Consensus broker estimates, Company, ENAM estimates on 100% BALCO & 91% HZL consolidation
31
Sun TV
Key concerns addressed
80 60 40 20 0
Political imbroglio overdone - 3 months after Kalaignar TVs launch, no drop in Suns ratings None of the major content players including Balaji, Radaan have left the company (de-risking strategy with only 1 slot given to each content producer) With the slots sale system that Sun works with, the producers stand to gain much more than the fixed fee structure that other networks operate under
TN Govt. entering cable business will pose challenges for growth of Suns channels
` ` ` `
Sun Groups distribution business has always had only a limited share of TNs cable market In the other three southern states where Sun is also the leader, Sun Group does not have its own distribution The demand from viewers ensure Suns channels get aired over all cable networks Any possible entry of Government into cable will help reduce underreporting of subscriber numbers, which will benefit Sun the most
Sales (Rs mn) 3,220 6,780 9,309 12,496 PAT (Rs mn) 1,313 2,469 3,870 5,712 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 9.5 12.4 EPS (Rs.) 3.3 6.3 9.8 14.5
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006# 2007# 2008E 2009E Change (YoY %) 69 88 57 48 P/E (x) 0.0 60.4 38.8 26.3 RoE (%) 35.6 40.8 36.1 36.8 RoCE (%) 40.7 54.6 55.9 56.9
Source: Company, ENAM estimates; *Consensus broker estimates; #Note: Current year / period balances and amounts included the effect of the amalgamation of Gemini TV Pvt Ltd (GTPL), and the Demerged Undertaking of Udaya TV Pvt Ltd (UTPL) and therefore, are not comparable with those of the previous year / period. Previous periods' / year's figures have been regrouped / reclassified wherever necessary.^Adjusted for stock split
32
Sun TV (Continued)
Suns pay revenue in Q4FY07 was Rs 240mn. FY08 subscription revenues are expected to be ~Rs 1bn+ on back of increased DTH penetration
` ` `
In the first month of launch of Sun channels on Tata Sky and Dish TV, Sun TV Network, has attracted close to 275,000 subs (@ Rs 25 per sub) Additionally, Sun Direct has booked ~350,000 subs in pre-launch phase (expected to go to 3mn by end-FY09) International subscription revenues of Rs 500mn expected in FY08
Ad revenue to increase by 30-35% (Rate hike 10-15%; Additional inventory 10-15%; New channel launches 510%) Average ad rates @~Rs 18,000/10 sec. Still provide significant room for growth (Star Plus charges Rs 80,000/10 sec for same eyeballs) To replicate the successful Tamil kids channel, Chutti TV, in other states. To make Chutti TV a pay channel in 6-7 months Radio business to provide a complete media package to advertisers
` `
13 stations operational with balance 32 stations to go operational by end- FY08 New stations to break even within 18 months of launch
Launch documentary channels in all 4 southern languages Business News channels in Tamil & Telugu To take the Kerala channels pay next year
33
Titan Industries
A personal accessories major
Worlds 6th largest, integrated manufacturer and brand for watches Commands >60% market share of the organized watch market Indias largest player in the branded jewellery segment (Tanishq)
` `
Branded jewellery remains under penetrated at 5% of overall market Gold Plus mass market initiative for semi-urban & rural regions. Generated Rs 1bn in H1FY08 Titan Eye+ the 3rd retail initiative. Started in Q4FY07 and achieved sales of Rs 250mn
Margins to improve over time due to consumer up trading and higher mid-premium watches sold through organized retail Margins to remain stable due to product mix changes. (Tanishq with higher margin and Gold Plus with lower margin) No slowdown witnesses in 22K gold jewellery off take, despite rising gold prices Still in gestation period, Titan is vying to get large offset contracts from aerospace and automotive segments over the next two years Huge untapped potential with ~300mn people requiring vision correction and only 25% of them are users
(CMP: Rs 1480) Adj. PAT (Rs mn) 1,113 1,295 1,796 2,388 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 35.6 48.7 EPS (Rs.) 26.3 29.2 40.5 53.8 Change (YoY %) 41 11 39 33 P/E (x) 31.7 28.8 36.6 27.5 RoE (%) 76.5 51.6 45.3 42.0 RoCE (%) 32.2 36.3 41.2 45.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 22.7 18.7 23.0 17.4 DPS (Rs) 3.0 5.0 6.5 8.5
Jewellery: New initiatives like Gold Plus can lead to a ~60% p.a. growth till FY10
Eyewear: Titan eye+ to expand to 50 stores by FY09 and ~200 stores in the next few years
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Sales (Rs mn) 14,402 20,902 29,526 39,151
34
Domestic Jewellery
(Rs bn) 5.7 3.3 8.8
54%
TIL consolidated
15 12 9 6 3 0 6.7 (Rs bn) 13.9
40%
4.3
8 6 4 2
9.9
3.0
H1FY06
H1FY07
H1FY08
35
Vishal Retail
Rapid scale up: 10mn sq.ft. by FY11 from current 1.7mn sq. ft.
`
New Formats: Convenience stores (in pilot phase in Delhi) and specialty stores (apparel, luggage, foot wear etc.)
Roll out plan on track: 85 stores by FY 2008 and 151 stores by FY 2009 with a total retail space of around 4mn sq. ft.
` `
The company has a target of operating 300 350 hypermarket formats and 3000 4000 convenience/specialty stores (500 5000 sq ft) by FY11 Focus on Tier II and III to continue with a majority of the stores to be opened in those cities Signed MOU for 45 new stores till date with total retail space of over 990,000 sq. ft.
Planning more regional warehouses to cater needs of increasing stores and speed up the supply chain process To launch concept of Vishal Vidyalaya (Specialized Retail Training Academy) to train people at both the front-end & back end level 4 zonal structure to 14 regional structure, headed by regional CEO responsible for execution, development and profitability
Vishal plans to enter consumer durables, jewellery, liquor and pharma segments within the next 3 months
Growth in the same stores sales were flat in H1FY08 (vs. 12% YoY in FY 2006 and 21% YoY in FY 2007) Inventory days at 250 days fro H1FY08, but expected to ease (target 135 days) as new store roll out was back ended in FY08 Net margin to remain stable at ~4% as higher margins from pvt. labels will mitigate lower margins from FMCG business (CMP: Rs 693) Financial summary
Sales (Rs mn) 2,884 6,027 10,686 16,829 PAT (Rs mn) 126 250 430 673 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 20.2 31.7 EPS (Rs.) 7.6 13.6 19.2 30.1 Change (YoY %) 275 79 41 57 P/E (x) 0.0 0.0 36.1 23.0 RoE (%) 24.4 25.0 21.5 22.4 RoCE (%) 24.0 21.7 19.5 20.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 1.7 3.3 15.2 10.8 EV/Sales (x) 0.2 0.4 1.8 1.2
36
(Rs mn)
21%
12%
50
49
85
59%
37
Voltamp Transformers
Focus on capacity expansion
Figures in MVA
9,000
Plans to increase capacity from 7,200MVA in FY07 to 9000MVA by FY08 Confident of the new capacity being absorbed easily Will consider further capacity addition as required
Distn. Transformer
Revenue guidance: 40-45% CAGR over next 2yrs Margins have expanded by a healthy 500 bps to 18.7% in H1FY08 Voltamp expects margins to remain at these levels in H2FY08
Despite expansion by most players, the management expects demandsupply balance to remain favorable for the next 2-3yrs
Sales (Rs mn) 2,488 4,058 6,139 8,361 PAT (Rs mn) 234 428 733 986 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 66.5 85.2 EPS (Rs.) 23.1 42.3 72.5 97.4 Change (YoY %) 56 83 71 34 P/E (x) 14.2 22.4 16.7
We are raising our FY09 EPS estimates by 15% in view of the revised guidance and favorable outlook
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E RoE (%) 40.3 50.7 57.6 50.9 RoCE (%) 49.8 71.5 89.5 79.2
(CMP: Rs 1625) EV/EBITDA (x) 0.4 8.7 14.0 10.5 DPS (Rs) 0.6 9.4 17.6 21.1
FY08
38
WWIL
Rollout of CAS across the country likely to change the media distribution landscape in India Head End In The Sky (HITS) technology to be launched in the 1st week of January Revenues to increase to Rs 25bn by 2011 (FY07 - Rs 1.8bn) Pay subscriber base to increase from 0.8mn currently to 6.9mn by 2012 Carriage fees: Benefiting MSOs
With the onslaught of several new channels, all vying for higher ratings, increase in carriage fees to provide significant benefit to MSOs like WWIL
39
Yes Bank
Focus on servicing small/emerging corporates and affluent clients.
Provides 360 degree services, catering to all their business and personal banking needs Gains client loyalty by providing specialized solutions to clients
To open ~75 branches a year taking the total branches to 250 by 2010 Initially to concentrate on deposits and wealth management in retail banking Single PIN for all transactions, RTGS, RFID to improve the customer management To adopt a less aggressive strategy in the consumer lending space Almost 2/3rd of the employees are posted in the retail banking
Technology initiatives
Currently have USD 100-200m in PE funds. Targeting to establish 3-4 PE funds To raise ~Rs 3.2bn by preferential placement of 4.99% shares by the end of Dec 2008. Further ~2% dilution likely during Jan-March 2008
Financial summary
Y/E Mar 2006 2007 2008E 2009E PAT (Rs mn) 553 944 1,818 3,008 EPS (Rs) 2.0 3.4 6.1 9.6 Change YoY (%) 64 80 58 P/E (x) 111.5 67.8 37.7 23.9 BV (Rs) 21 28 48 68 P/BV (x) 10.8 8.1 4.8 3.3 NPAs (%) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 (CMP: Rs 228) ROE (%) 14.0 13.9 16.3 16.8 ROA (%) 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.3
40
Channel share up from 28% (FY07) to 36% in FY08 42% channel share in primetime (PT) band. On weekdays PT, ZTV ahead of Star Plus, while weekends it lags slightly behind
With Star Voice of India program now over, ratings of Zee TV & Star Plus expected to converge
54% Channel share No.1 program across Genre New launch Bidai Kahani Ghar Ghar Ki Kyunki (No.1 GEC prog) Kayamath
Plans to increase fresh programming hours Plans to concentrate on the weekend and afternoon slots
Financials
Expected revenues by 2011E of Rs 39.6bn @ 30% CAGR EBITDA margin of 35% in 5 yrs (vs 22% currently)
(CMP: Rs 294) PAT (Rs mn) 2,154 2,407 3,547 4,840 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 8.5 11.2 EPS (Rs.) 5.0 5.5 8.2 11.2 Change (YoY %) (36) 12 47 36 P/E (x) 48 45 36 26 RoE (%) 8 8 11 13 RoCE (%) 8 10 14 17 EV/EBITDA (x) 36 33 26 18 DPS (Rs) 1.2 1.5 3.3 4.5 Sales (Rs mn) 14,233 14,411 16,703 19,632
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E
41
Digitization to change the scenario (2 new DTH players to speed up things). Once subscription revenues are substantial, differentiation in content will be more viable Committee of broadcasters formed to revamp ratings measurement system
`
25 20 15 10 5 0
9 10 3 3 0 3
11
12 10 11
14 14
Current system representing only 25mn homes (out of 72mn C&S HHs)
Sports: 2 pronged strategy of cricket (ICL) and football Plans to have dedicated channels for cricket & football (Zee Sports & ten Sports) with 1 FTA for all other sports
Road ahead
Launch of Zee Next on 17 December 2007 (focused on the mass-youth) to capitalize on existing gap in GEC. Rs 20bn to be spent over the next 1-1.5 yrs
`
Ad revenues to grow @ 30% in FY09. Thereafter minimum growth rate of ~15% Subscription revenue to grow with digitization. (H1FY08 DTH revs: Rs 250mn) Exploring VAS opportunities after response of SaReGaMaPa (10mn responses across SMS & internet). For next program, they are integrating VS from the content creation stage itself Head-end In The Sky (HITS) to be launched in the 1st week of Jan will also help subscription revenue growth
Source: Company
Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Star Plus Zee TV Sony
Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07
42
Zodiac
Aggressively scaling up organized branded retail reach
53 exclusive Zodiac showrooms and 4 ZOD! stores spread across 18 cities. Plans to add 100 more outlets in next 3 years to cover 25 cities across the country Store roll outs impacted (line of sight - 20 stores vs. target of 30 stores for FY08) due to execution delays by mall developers 1200 independent multi-brand retailers contribute 50% of branded sales
Targeting the youth category. ZCL intends to maintain its premium pricing for the new brand
Same store sales growth at 20% in H1FY08. Branded sales growth in H2FY08 to be driven by festive season New stores are expected to achieve cash breakeven in the 1st year of operation Unlike other apparel export majors, ZCLs export operating margins has not been impacted by rupee appreciation Caters to a high end private label customers, who bank on ZCLs ability to show case new design collections
Largely to fund store roll outs, expanding manufacturing capacity and working capital requirements Board approval is awaited to raise funds by issue of warrants and equity shares
(CMP: Rs 455) Adj. PAT (Rs mn) 126 234 319 404 Consensus EPS* (Rs.) 35.2 42.8 EPS (Rs.) 15.1 28.0 38.2 48.3 Change (YoY %) 51 86 36 27 P/E (x) 19.0 9.0 11.9 9.4 RoE (%) 13.5 21.9 24.9 25.8 RoCE (%) 17.5 27.1 30.0 32.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 5.8 8.0 6.2 DPS (Rs) 5.0 6.0 7.5 9.0
Financial summary
Y/E March 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Sales (Rs mn) 2,154 2,592 3,075 3,591
43
Zodiac (Continued)
Export Sales Trend
2.0 (Rs bn) 1.5 1.0 1.44 0.5 0.0 FY05 FY06 FY07 H1FY07 H1FY08 1.04
CAGR 28 %
1.72
6%
0.70
0.87
38 %
0.79
0.49
H1FY08
EBITDA Trend
CAGR 64 %
76 %
248 141
FY06
FY07
H1FY07
H1FY08
44
Thank You
ENAM Securities Pvt. Ltd.
109-112, Dalamal Tower, Free Press Journal Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021, India. Tel:- Board +91-22 6754 7500; Dealing +91-22 2280 0167; Fax:- Research +91-22 6754 7579; Dealing +91-22 6754 7575
This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document is not in recommendary nature Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors Enam Securities Private Limited has not independently verified all the information given in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval Enam securities Private Limited, its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of ENAM Securities Private Limited. The views expressed are those of analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Copyright in this document vests exclusively with ENAM Securities Private Limited.
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