Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Teaching Assistants
Ruchit Agarwal ra343@cornell.edu
Manish Bhargava mb724@cornell.edu
Odelia D’Mello od36@cornell.edu
David Wu dw326@cornell.edu
For 01/27/08:
Familiarize yourself with the 10-K for Cracker Barrel (CBRL). We will be applying all
the tools we learn in class to CBRL. You can download the 10-K from the SEC Edgar
website (http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml).
Lecture 2 Page 1 of 12
Valuation
Economic theory teaches that the value of any resources equals the
present value of the payoffs expected from the resource, discounted at a
rate compensating for the inherent risk & delayed consumption of the
payoffs.
The first financial model for common equity (and the basis for all models
used today) is the dividend-discounting model:
∞ Dividends t + j
Equity Valuet = Et ∑ j
j =1 (1 + re )
Lecture 2 Page 2 of 12
Residual Income Valuation
Then, using the dividend-discounting model, we get the following (see last
page of notes for a derivation):
Residual Income is simply
earnings less a charge for
the use of capital
Et ( NI t + 1 - re BVEt ) Et ( NI t + 2 - re BVEt +1 )
Equity Valuet = BVEt + + + ...
(1 + re ) (1 + re ) 2
Lecture 2 Page 3 of 12
The Residual Income Model reformulated in terms of ROEs:
Thus, equity value is simply the book value of equity plus the present value
of future abnormal returns on equity, weighted by the BVE outstanding at
the time.
Lecture 2 Page 4 of 12
Nichols and Wahlen (2004): How do accounting numbers relate to
stock returns?
Figure 1
The Three Links Relating Earnings to Stock Returns
Link 1
Expected Future
Current Period Earnings Link 1 assumes that current Earnings
period earnings numbers
provide information that equity
shareholders can use to form
expectations for future earnings.
Link 2 assumes
that current and
Test: expected future
How do earnings profitability
numbers relate to determines the
share prices? firm’s expected
Link 2
future dividend-
paying capacity.
Link 3
Expected Future
Current Share Price
Link 3 assumes that share Dividends
prices reflect the present value
of all expected future dividends.
Lecture 2 Page 5 of 12
Testing the three links: The relation between earnings changes and
stock returns
Compare earnings this year (t) to earnings last year (t-1). If the change is
positive, put the firm in one portfolio; if the change is negative, put the firm
in another portfolio. Do the same thing for operating cash flows.
Testing
the three
links,
Lecture 2 Page 6 of 12
Instead of forming portfolios on just the sign of the change, group firms into
10 portfolios based on the magnitude of earnings (scaled by assets to allow
cross-sectional comparability).
Testing
link 1:
Earnings
If new earnings will persist, then the new earnings should have a greater
effect on price.
Lecture 2 Page 7 of 12
Another test of the three links: Does accounting provide new
information to market participants?
Rank all firms based on the magnitude of their quarterly earnings surprise
using analyst forecasts 5 days before the announcement as an
expectation.
Lecture 2 Page 8 of 12
Is the
market
Rank all firms based on the magnitude of their quarterly earnings surprise
using analyst forecasts 60 days before the announcement as an
expectation.
Take a long position in the 10% of firms with the greatest unexpected
earnings, and an offsetting short position in the 10% of firms with the lowest
unexpected earnings. Hold these stocks for either 60 (trading) days.
Lecture 2 Page 9 of 12
Nichols and Wahlen (2004): Summary and Takeaways
Accounting earnings capture many of the same events affecting firm value
that are reflected in price.
The accrual accounting process starts with cash flows and adds
information about transactions and events during the year to arrive at a
more useful measure of firm performance (earnings).
Evidence strongly suggests that stock prices are not fully efficient with
respect to accounting information.
Lecture 2 Page 10 of 12
Additional Notes: Deriving the Residual Income Model from the DDM
Thus, we can express the value of the equity as follows (expectation operators are
omitted for simplicity):
NI 1 − re BVE0 NI 2 − re BVE1
= BVE0 + + + ...
(1 + re ) (1 + re ) 2
Lecture 2 Page 11 of 12
This works as long as . But thanks to our steady state assumption,
BVET −1
lim =0
T → ∞ (1 + r )T
e
Lecture 2 Page 12 of 12