I n t r od u c t i o n t o R e l i a b i l i t y

Engineering
S e c o n dE d i t i o n

E. E. Lewis
Department of Mechanical Engineering I{orthw estern Unia ersity Euanston, Illinois JuIy, 1994

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

New York Chichester Brisbane Toronto Singapore

Contents

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2 2.1 2.2

INTRODUCTION

I Reliability Defined Performance, Cost and Reliability 4 Quality, Reliability and Safery Preview 8 PROBABILITY AND SAMPLING

l0

2.3

2.4

2.5

Introduction 10 Probability Concepts 10 Probability Axioms 11 Combinations of Events 13 Discrete Random Variables l7 Properties of Discrete Variables 1B The Binomial Distribution 27 The Poisson Distribution 24 Attribute Sampling 25 Sampling Distribution 26 Confidence Inten'als 28 Acceptance Testing 30 Binomial Sampling 31 The PoissonLimit 32 Multiple Sampling Methods 33 CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES 40

3 3.1 3.2

40

Introduction 40 Properties of Random Variables

xllt

xiv

Contents 4l Probability Distribution Functions Characteristics of a Probability Distribution 46 Transformations of Variables Normal and Related Distributions 48 The Normal Distribution 48 The Dirac Delta Distribution 52 The Lognormal Distribution 53 Weibull and Extreme Value Distributions Weibull Distribution 57 Extreme Value Distributions 59 QUALITY AND ITS MEASURES 68 Quality and Reliability The Taguchi Methodology 70 7L Quality Loss Measures Robust Design 76 The Design of Experiments 8l The Six Sigma Methodology 88 ProcessCapability Indices 89 \freld and System Complexity 92 Six Sigma Criteria 94 Implementation 96 DATA AND DISTRIBUTIONS 102 68

43

3.3

3.4

57

4 4.1 4.2

4.3

5 5.1 5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5 6 6.1 6.2

Introduction 102 Nonparametric Methods 103 Histograms 104 Sample Statistics 106 Rank Statistics 107 Probability Plotting 108 Least Squares Fit 1l I Weibull Distribution Plotting 113 Extreme Value Distribution Plotting ll4 Normal Distribution Plotting 116 Lognormal Distribution Plotting ll8 Goodness-oFit 120 Point and Interval Estimates 120 Estimate of the Mean 124 Normal and Lognormal Parameters 125 Extreme Value and Weibull Parameters 127 StatisticalProcessControl 130 RELIABILITY AND RATES OF FAILURE 139 I38

Introduction 138 Reliability Characterization

Contents

xv

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6 7 7.I 7.2

139 Basic Definitions 142 The Bathtub Curve 145 Constant Failure Rate Model 146 The Exponential Distribution l+7 Demand Failures 150 Time Deterrninations 151 Rates Time-Dependent Failure 153 The Normal Distribution I54 The Lognormal Distribution 156 The Weibull Distribution Component Failures and Failure Modes 159 Failure Mode Rates 161 Component Counts 163 Replacements LOADS, CAPACITY, AND RELIABILITY 775 Introduction I77 Reliability with a Single Loading 177 L o ad A pplic at io n 179 Definitions 182 Reliability and Safety Factors 183 Normal Distributions 188 Lognormal Distributions l8g Combined Distributions 191 Repetitive Loading 191 Loading VariabilitY 794 Variable CapacitY 196 The Bathtub Curvs-Bsensidered L97 Single Failure Modes 200 Combined Failure Modes RELIABILITY TESTING 208

159

L75

7.3

7.4

7.5

8 8.1 8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

208 Introduction Procedures Enhancement Reliability 211 Testing Growth Reliability 2I3 Testing Stress Environmental 215 Methods Nonparametric 216 Ungrouped Data Data 218 Grouped 2I9 Censored Testing 220 l)ata Censored Singly 22L Multiply Censored Data 227 Testing Life Accelerated 227 Testing Compressed-Time 230 Advanced-StressTesting 235 Acceleration Models

2L0

Contents

8.6

Constant Failure Rate Estimates Censoring on the Right 237 MTTF Estimates 239 Confidence Intervals 241 REDUNDANCY 252

236

9 9.1 9.2

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.6

Introduction 252 Active and Standby Redundancy 254 Active Parallel 254 Standby Parallel 255 Constant Failure Rate Models 255 Redundancy Limitations 258 Common Mode Failures 258 Load Sharing 260 Switching and Standby Failures 262 Cold, Warm, and Hot Standby 263 Multiply Redundant Systems 264 | / ^{ Active Redundancy 264 7/ I\f Standby Redundancy 267 nx/ ,,IActive Redundancy 268 Redundancy Allocation 270 High- and Low-Level Redundancy 272 Fail-Safe and Fail-to-Danger 274 Voting Systems 276 Redundancy in Complex Configurations Series-Parallel Configurations 279 Linked Configurations 281 MAINTAINED SYSTEMS 290

278

IO 10.1 10.2

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.6

Introduction 290 Preventive Maintenance 297 Idealized Maintenance 291 Imperfect Maintenance 296 Redundant Components 299 Corrective Maintenance 300 Availability 300 Maintainabiliry 301 Repair: Revealed Failures 303 Constant Repair Rates 304 Constant Repair Times 307 Testing and Repair: Unrevealed Failures Idealized Periodic Tests 309 Real Periodic Tests 311 SysremAvailabiliry 313 Revealed Failures 314 Unrevealed Failures 317

308

Contents

xvii

II 11.1 17.2

FAILURE INTERACTIONS

326

11.3

I7.4

11.5

326 Introduction 326 Markov Analysis 328 Two Independent Components 337 Load-Sharing Systems 334 Reliability with Standby Systems 334 Idealized System 337 Failures in the Standby State 339 Switching Failures 342 Primary System Repair 344 Systems Multicomponent Multicomponent Markov Formulations 348 Combinations of Subsystems 349 Availability 350 Standby Redundancy 354 Shared Repair Crews SYSTEM SAFETY ANALYSIS 367 362

345

12 I2.1 12.2 I2.3

72.4

12.5

12.6

72.7

361 Introduction Product and Equipment Hazards 366 Human Error 368 Routine Operations 370 Emergency Operations 372 Methods of Analysis Failure Modes and Effects Analysis 374 Event Trees 376 Fault Trees 377 Fault-Tree Construction 379 Nomenclature 382 Fault Classification 383 Examples Direct Evaluation of Fault Trees 391 Qualitative Evaluation 393 Evaluation Quantitative Fault-Tree Evaluation by Cut Sets 396 Qualitative Analysis 400 Analysis Quantitative

372

389

396

APPENDICES A USEFUL MATHEMATICAL REI-ATIONSHIPS 4IT B BINOMIAL SAMPLING CTIARTS 4T5 C STANDARD NORMAL CDF 4I7 D PROBABILITY GRAPH PAPERS ANSWERS TO ODD-NUMBERED EXERCISES 429 INDEX 408

425