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1. Suppose that a random sample of 200 20-year-old men is selected from a population and their height ( X ) and weight ( Y ) is recorded. A regression of weight on height yields:
= 99.41 + 3.94*70 = 176.39 If X = 70 , then the predicted weight is Y = 99.41 + 3.94*65 = 156.69 If X = 65 , then the predicted weight is Y = 99.41 + 3.94*74 = 192.15 If X = 74 , then the predicted weight is Y
(b) A person has a late growth spurt and grows 1.5 inches over the course of a year. What is the regressions prediction for the increase in the persons weight?
*1.5 = 3.94*1.5 = 5.91 pounds. The predicted change in the persons weight is 1
2. You have the following data on 11 students combined SAT scores ( X ) and their cumulative grade point average at graduation ( Y ):
#
Y X
1 3.63 1490
2 2.37 1300
3 3.33 1510
4 3.32
5 3.27
6 2.37
7 3.61
8 3.23
9 2.59
10 3.30
11 3.21
i =1 (Yi Y )( X i X ) = 484.55 ,
11
i =1 ( X i X )
11
= 140018.18
=Y X = 3.11 0.00346*1427.27 = 1.828 0 1 and the estimated error u for all i=1,11 i = Yi Y (c) Calculate the predicted GPA, Y i i = 1.828 + 0.00346* X , Y i i
# Y
i
i = Yi Y u i
4
3.09 0.23
1
3.33 0.30
2
2.67 -0.30
3
3.40 -0.07
5
3.33 -0.06
6
2.25 0.12
7
3.54 0.08
8
3.22 0.01
9
2.67 -0.08
10
3.19 0.11
11
3.54 -0.32
i u
(d) Using the definitions of the Total Sum and Squares (TSS) and the Sum of Squared Residuals (SSR) given below compute R 2 of this regression and interpret your result
i ) = 0.388 SSR = i =1 ( u
11
SSR 0.388 = 1 = 1 0.188 = 0.812 TSS 2.064 This result implies that about 81% of variation in students GPAs in this sample R2 = 1
(b)
n n n i=1 ( X i X )( X i X ) = i=1 ( X i X )X i i=1 ( X i X )X = n n n = i =1 ( X i X )X i X * i =1 ( X i X ) = i =1 ( X i X )X i X * 0 = n = i =1 ( X i X ) X i
Extra Credit (worth 3 percentage points on the first exam) Suppose we want to estimate a simple regression model assuming that intercept term is equal to zero. In other words we assume that the population regression line goes through the origin: E (Yi | X i ) = 1 X i (as opposed to the usual case in denote the OLS estimator of , i.e. which we have E (Yi | X i ) = 0 + X i 1 ). Let 1 1 is the solution to the problem of minimizing the sum of squared errors, which
1
i=1 (Yi 1 X i )
n
with respect to 1
i =1Yi X i n i =1 X i 2
n
This is the OLS estimator of the slope coefficient in the regression through the origin.