Professional Documents
Culture Documents
October 2013
Stephanie Pomboy
MacroMavens, LLC
spomboy@macromavens.com
tel 212.989.3311 fax 212.989.0022
www.macromavens.com
1
October 8, 2013
250
247%
246%
235
220
205
190
175
160
145
130
Source=Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds (Z.1)
115
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
October 8, 2013
500
7.5
460
7.1
6.7
420
6.3
380
5.9
340
5.5
5.1
300
4.7
260
4.3
220
3.9
180
3.5
3.1
1995
140
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
October 8, 2013
Consumer Spending
y/y%
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Crisis
Collapse
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
October 8, 2013
$ Billion
$ Billion
2300
+$377b
3900
3625
2200
+$20b
3350
2100
3075
2000
2800
1900
2525
1800
2250
1700
1600
1995
1975
*Retail Sales ex Food & Energy, deflated by CPI
1997
1999
2001
2003
1700
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
$ change
% change
$518b
11.5%
377
10.9
30
1.0
20
0.9
October 8, 2013
$ Billion
900
$729b
750
600
450
300
150
-150
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
October 8, 2013
Velocity of Money
vs. S&P 500 Index (- -)
11.0
1700
10.5
1550
10.0
1400
9.5
1250
9.0
1100
8.5
8.0
950
7.5
800
7.0
650
6.5
500
6.0
350
5.5
200
5.0
4.5
1971
50
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
October 8, 2013
$ Billion
12 month sum
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
$75b
-100
1991
1993
1995
1997
Trsy Issuance
Trsy Purchases
Household
Foreign
Fed
Misc
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
1H:2013
735
2q:2013
298
-78
310
561
-58
-190
89
549
-150
2011
2013
October 8, 2013
$ Billion
$/oz
3700
2150
3500
2000
3300
1850
3100
1700
2900
1550
2700
1400
2500
1250
2300
1100
2100
950
1900
1700
2009
800
2010
2011
2012
2013
relative to
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
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referenced without the express consent of MacroMavens. While we presume the information and data contained herein to be accurate, it is not guaranteed.
October 8, 2013