Hypothesis Testing Using The Binomial Distribution

A hypothesis is a suggestion we make concerned about a statistical population. We carry out a test on a sample of the population to provide evidence to support or reject this hypothesis. The original suggestion is known as the NULL HYPOTHESIS, denoted as H0. It is always in the form = or = . The ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS is denoted as H1. This contradicts H0 and is in the form > , < or .

 The probability at which you make the decision to be satisfied that the event hasnt happened by chance is called the significance level of the test. These are generally seen as 10%, 5% or 1%. The significance level can be given in the question or you can choose it. The lower the significance level the stricter the test.

Critical Regions + Values

When testing its good to draw a bar chart. The Critical Region is the area of the bar chart where you reject the null hypothesis. The numb at which this occurs is called the Critical Value. Its best to find the critical region and see if your value lies in it.

Example 1
Mr A claims to have 65% of the vote. He is suspected of overestimating his support. In a sample of 20 people, 10 people backed him. Test at the 5% level the hypothesis that Mr A has overestimated his support.

 H0:p=0.65
Original claim that 65% support

H1:p<0.65 X~B(20,0.65) P(X10)=0.1218

Sample of 20 and apparent success rate is 65% If this arrow points left then so does this one. Over estimated so we want less than 65%

 0.1218>0.05

0.05 is the significance level

So we accept H0. That is there is not enough evidence to suggest he has over estimated his support.
5%

Example 2
A striker claims that he has an unimpressive 40% chance of scoring a goal by a penalty. A team mate thinks hes better than this. In 20 attempts he scores 14. Test at the 5% level that he has underestimated his chance of scoring.

 H0:p=0.4 H1:p>0.4 X~B(20,0.4)

8

P(X14)=1-P(X13)=1-0.9935=0.0065 0.0065<0.05 So we reject H0 in favour of H1. That is there is enough evidence to say his scoring chance is better than 40%

Example 3
A pupil claims that he has an 85% chance of passing an exam. Another pupil challenges this by saying he is overestimating his chances. He sits 20 exams and passes N. Given that he is tested at the 5% level and that we conclude he has overestimated his chances, what are the possible values of N

 H0:p=0.85 H1:p<0.85 X~B(20,0.85) P(XN) Because its rejected we know that P(XN)<0.05 So what is the biggest value of N so that <0.05. Using tables we get 0x13

 Work Ex 7A