MEMORANDUM October 21, 2013 TO: FROM: RE: Interested Parties Jim Williams, Public Policy Polling 25 Additional

Polls: Post-Shutdown Wave Could Result in Sizable House Democratic Majority A new round of post-shutdown polling shows that Democrats not only have an opportunity to take back the House of Representatives next year, but that they could win a sizable majority if voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014. Public Policy Polling has just completed surveys in an additional 25 GOP-held House districts, which means we have now surveyed a total of 61 such districts since the beginning of the government shutdown. The surveys were commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action. Republicans will likely find this third round of surveys to be the most alarming yet, given that the new results show substantial Republican vulnerability in many districts that were not even supposed to be close. Incumbent Republicans trail generic Democrats in 15 of the 25 districts we most recently surveyed. This means generic Democrats lead in 37 of 61 districts polled since the beginning of the government shutdown. Democrats only need to net 17 seats in order to retake the House. And the bad news for Republicans doesnt stop there, because in the minority of the 61 districts where Republicans lead in the initial head-to-head question, 11 more Republicans fall behind once voters are informed that the Republican supported the government shutdown and 1 race becomes tied. This means that our results indicate Democrats have pickup opportunities in an astounding 49 of the 61 districts surveyed. Of course, important caveats apply. The 2014 elections are more than a year away, and these surveys were conducted in the midst of a high-profile shutdown debate. Moreover, generic Democratic candidates are not the same as actual candidates. Democrats must recruit strong candidates and run effective campaigns in individual districts if they are to capitalize on the vulnerability revealed by these surveys, and they must maintain a significant national advantage over Republicans. But what these surveys make clear is

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that the shutdown has produced a plethora of pickup opportunities for Democrats -- and that if they play their cards right, they can not only take back the House but can establish a significant majority. Our surveys are in line with what other national surveys in the wake of the shutdown have shown. On average, the 61 districts we polled were lost by 2 points by President Obama in 2013, and on average, our surveys show generic Democrat leading in these districts by 1 point -- essentially a 3 point shift in Democrats favor since 2012. President Obama won the presidency with by a 4 point margin across the country last year, so one can extrapolate a 7 point national House ballot lead from these polls. Such a lead is consistent with what Pew and NBC/WSJ generic ballot questions in the last weeks have found. Of course some districts have swung more than others, which could be due to local dynamics as well as statistical noise, so there are some surprise districts where Democrats are especially strong or Republicans are doing better than you might expect -but on the whole what these polls show is very much in line with the national picture indicated by other organizations surveys. The districts surveyed this week in which a generic Democratic challenger leads prior to any information being provided about the shutdown are: CA-39, CA-49, CO-03, FL-07, FL-15, FL-25, IL-06, MI-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, OH-15, OH-16, PA-16, VA-05, WI-06 The additional districts in which a generic Democratic challenger leads or ties after voters are told the Republican incumbent supported a shutdown are: MI-04, NJ-07, NY-22, OH-10, VA-04, WI-08 The districts in which the incumbent Republican leads throughout the survey are: IL-16, OH-01, PA-15, VA-01 These 25 snap polls of registered voters were conducted on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of last week with sample sizes ranging from 600-1,000 voters Click here to view a table with results from this most recent round of 25 polls. Click here to view a table with results from the second round of 12 polls, and here for an October 11 memo with information about those polls.

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Click here to view a table with the results of the initial 24 polls we conducted, and here for an October 6 memo with more information about those polls. Full results from each of the 25 districts surveyed this week follow: http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/ca39results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/ca49results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/co3results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/fl7results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/fl15results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/fl25results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/il6results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/il16results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/mi3results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/mi4results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/nj5results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/nj7results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/nj11results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/ny22results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/oh1results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/oh10results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/oh15results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/oh16results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/pa15results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/pa16results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/va1results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/va4results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/va5results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/wi6results.pdf http://s3.moveon.org/shutdownpolling/wi8results.pdf ###

Public Policy Polling 2912 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com