SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY

WWW.SIENA.EDU/SRI

Siena College Research Institute

New York State Consumer Real Estate Sentiment Scores

3rd Quarter 2013

For Immediate Release: Wednesday, October 23, 2013 For information/comment: Dr. Don Levy 518-783-2901 For data summary, or charts, visit www.siena.edu/sri

NYers See Strong & Stable Real Estate Market All Regions, Overall Market, Buyers and Sellers Real Estate Thriving
Loudonville, NY -- For the second consecutive quarter, New Yorkers view of the real estate market is strongly positive and the expectation is that this market is here to stay. Our numbers indicate that real estate is squarely in the thriving zone in which citizens see steady growth in real estate values and both buyers and sellers coming out ahead today and tomorrow according to Dr. Don Levy, SRIs Director. The advantage that buyers held over sellers is now gone. We have reached the point where statewide, New Yorkers see real estate as a win-win. Not only do over two-thirds of state residents say that the overall market as well as outcomes for both buyers and sellers have either held constant or improved over the last year, but no more than one in five project any worsening in the year to come.
3rd Quarter 2013 Real Estate Sentiment:

3rd Quarter 2013 17.7 (4.2) 24.8 (-4.8) 12.2 (5.0) 23.9 (-1.2) 12.5 (-7.6) -0.4 (-6.5)

NYC 13.7 (6.7) 27.6 (-1.4) 14.5 (8.6) 30.5 (2.5) 7.6 (-9.2) -0.7 (-7.4)

Suburbs
22.8 (2.8) 31.4 (-4.6) 8.5 (1.4) 29.6 (-2.2) 18.3 (-8.9) 4.7 (-5.3)

Upstate 19.4 (1.1) 16.9 (-9.2) 11.7 (2.8) 10.5 (-5.8) 15.4 (-4.6) -3.0 (-5.9)

Overall Current Overall Future Sell Current Sell Future Buy Current Buy Future

( ) reflects change from previous quarter

The overall current Real Estate Sentiment score among New Yorkers in the third quarter of 2013 is 17.7, above the point where equal percentages of citizens feel optimistic and pessimistic about the housing market and it is up 4.2 points from last quarter. Looking forward, the overall future Real Estate Sentiment score is 24.8 (down from 29.6 last quarter) indicating that New Yorkers expect the overall real estate market and the value of property to increase over the next year. Consumers see now as an improved time to sell with a score above breakeven at 12.2 (up 5.0 from last quarter), and simultaneously as a very good time to buy with a positive score of 12.5.
Overall Current 17.7 13.7 22.8 19.4 24.0 13.3 2.5 20.7 36.5 27.4 -2.7 Overall Future 24.8 27.6 31.4 16.9 21.9 26.8 17.1 25.3 36.0 29.2 15.6 Sell Current 12.2 14.5 8.5 11.7 19.1 7.7 -1.2 12.0 32.5 15.9 6.4 Sell Future 23.9 30.5 29.6 10.5 23.6 24.2 14.6 23.3 36.0 25.3 17.7 Buy Current 12.5 7.6 18.3 15.4 14.7 11.1 11.0 16.5 13.1 15.8 2.6 Buy Future -0.4 -0.7 4.7 -3.0 -4.9 3.0 3.5 0.0 -5.6 -0.9 -2.2

NEW YORK STATE NYC Suburbs Upstate Male Female Less than $50,000 $50,000-$100,000 $100,000 or more Homeowner Renter

Right now, New Yorkers say that real estate is a winner. How long will this period of strength and stability last? Will the pendulum swing in favor of sellers as inventory lessens and interest rates make it tougher for buyers? Certainly New Yorkers see a weakening of the buyers position relative to sellers, but for now, after four years of hoping to see these positive numbers and widespread optimism about real estate, we are going to trumpet this moment. The lessening of some numbers the decline in the projected rate of improvement of the overall market and especially buying - could be balancing rather than busting.

Current Sentiment Scores

2010 - 2013
55.0 45.0 35.0 25.0 15.0 5.0 -5.0 -15.0 -25.0 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12

35.3

32.5

35.1

33.1 31.4

30.7

31.5

29.2

33.4

31.2

28.4

22.9

23.1 6.4

5.1 -18.8 -30.9 -41.3 -39.3 -47.0 -41.7 -50.8

Buy Current

20.1 17.7 13.5 12.5 7.2 12.2

3Q13

-12.1 -19.6 -30.9 -24.1

-6.8

4Q12

1Q13-4.8 2Q13

-14.8

-26.6 -31.0 -32.0 -28.3 -30.0 -35.0 -38.9 -42.2 -36.7 -40.1 -45.0
-55.0

-21.0

Overall Current

Sell Current

Thriving

Each Real Estate Sentiment score is derived through statistical diffusion weighted to consider response intensity. A sentiment score of zero (0) in any category, reflects a breakeven point at which equal levels of optimism and pessimism among the population have been measured relative to the overall market, or buying or selling real estate. Scores can range from an absolute low of -100 to a high of 100 but scores below -50 or above +50 are both rare and extreme. If 100 percent of people describe the overall market or either buying or selling as greatly improved the sentiment score would equal 100. Conversely, universal extreme pessimism would score -100. Scores measure and reflect the collective sentiment of residents of New York State. Current scores report recent change in consumer sentiment while future scores measure consumers projected change in sentiment as they approach the coming year. In reviewing the Sentiment Scores look first at the relationship within each category Overall, Sell, and Buy between current and future. Current scores measure sentiment towards the present relative to the recent past while future projects change in sentiment from the current to one year from now. An increase from a current score to a future score denotes a positive change in sentiment relative to the present. In every case when considering any of the six sentiment scores, a net positive number indicates that the collective sentiment is such that people sense improvement while a negative net score predicts or measures a collective recognition of worsening. Todays six scores are demonstrative of a strong real estate market that is currently situated within the thriving zone.
The SRI survey of Consumer Real Estate Sentiment was conducted throughout July, August, and September 2013 by random telephone calls to 2,175 New York State residents age 18 or older. As the sentiment scores are developed through a series of calculations , margin of error does not apply. For more information or comments, please call Dr. Don Levy at 518.783.2901. Data and charts can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/ . SRI is an independent, non-partisan research institute. SRI subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.