Professional Documents
Culture Documents
voters blamed President Obama and the Democrats for the shutdown. Only 26 percent of
respondents and 27 percent of likely voters blamed the Republicans in Congress.
When respondents considered the performance of their elected officials in Washington, D.C.,
all lawmakers saw drops in approval ratings. John Boozman received his lowest approval ratings
yet, 34 percent of likely voters, down from 45 percent last year. Moreover, his disapproval rating
jumped to 29 percent of likely voters from 18 percent last year.
Only 34 percent of likely voters approved of Mark Pryors performance, down from 53
percent last year. His disapproval ratings were also dramatically higher, with 44 percent of likely
voters disapproving of his performance, up from 21 percent last year.
In contrast, both current senators are polling well below the Arkansas Poll numbers for
former Sen. Blanche Lincoln during her last year of office. She was voted out of office in 2010.
At her lowest in 2009, 43 percent approved and 34 percent disapproved of her performance.
Once again, Arkansans gave low ratings to President Barack Obama, with 29 percent of
likely voters approving and 66 percent disapproving of his performance.
While Gov. Mike Beebes approval rating declined from 72 percent to 68 percent of likely
voters, an increase in his disapproval rating was not statistically significant.
The 2014 elections were too close to call, although likely voters were more likely to choose
someone from the Republican Party in elections for the U.S. House of Representatives or state
legislature for which no candidates were specified. Looking forward to the 2016 presidential
election, the poll asked a speculative question that showed 44 percent of likely voters choosing
Hillary Clinton over a Republican nominee, with 42 percent choosing the Republican.
The poll results show Arkansans leaning right. There was no significant change in the
percentage of likely voters who identify themselves as Democrats 30 percent in 2012 and 31
percent in 2013 or liberal 12 percent in 2012 and 14 percent in 2013. A slight decline in the
percentage of Republicans 32 percent in 2012 to 27 percent in 2013 was matched by an
increase in self-identified Independents 32 percent in 2012 up to 36 percent in 2013. Of the
Independents, 51 percent of likely voters lean Republican versus 22 percent who lean
Democratic.
Parry said, The question is does the rightward shift in Arkansas voters solidify to continue
beyond this particular president, who continues to be peculiarly unpopular here, or can the
Democrats white-knuckle it to 2016 and win back at least some of the brand loyalty they enjoyed
for more than 100 years? Or is Republican ascendance permanent?
Page 2 of 4
Once again, the poll surveyed Arkansans about attitudes toward gay couples. By and large
results were similar to previous years with less than a quarter of Arkansans supporting marriage
or civil unions for same-sex couples. When it comes to the statement There should be no legal
recognition of a gay couples relationship, only 46 percent of Arkansans agreed, the first time
the response has dipped below 50 percent. This year the poll asked whether gays and lesbians
should have equal rights in job opportunities, and 81 percent of likely voters agreed that they
should.
For the first time, the poll asked Arkansans about their support for granting in-state tuition to
graduates of Arkansas high schools who are in the country illegally. Just 36 percent of likely
voters approved of that option, and 54 percent disapproved. While 59 percent of Arkansans
support allowing undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain criteria,
that level of support is not a statistically significant change from the 56 percent of last year.
Methodology and Sample Information
The 2013 Arkansas Poll was conducted by Issues & Answers Network. Between Oct. 10 and
17, interviewers completed 800 live telephone interviews among a random sample of adult
Arkansans. Twenty percent of all respondents were cell phone users.
The surveys margin of error statewide is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, meaning that
researchers are 95 percent confident that the actual result lies within 3.5 percentage points in
either direction of the result the polls sample produced.
To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team
publishes what most polling organizations do not, a comparison of survey respondents key
demographic characteristics to those of the state as a whole. This information is available on the
poll website. A summary report of the 2013 poll results and data from past Arkansas Polls will
be available at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 23, at the Arkansas Poll website.
The 2012 Arkansas Poll was sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and
Society at the University of Arkansas, Todd Shields, director. The poll was designed and
analyzed by Parry, a professor in the department of political science in the J. William Fulbright
College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Arkansas. Data is available from current and
past Arkansas Polls.
-30-
CONTACTS:
Janine Parry, professor, political science
Page 3 of 4
Page 4 of 4
Table of Contents
Most Important Problem/Public Figure Approval/Upcoming Elections. p. 2-3
Politics and Elections/Current Issues... p. 3-5
Political Party/Ideology p. 5-6
Life in Arkansas... p. 6
Methodology and Sample Details ......................................................................................... .. p. 7
*Values in parentheses include the very likely voters only; may not total 100 due to rounding.
nt
2011
2012
2013
47 (48)%
15 (15)%
-6 (5)%
11 (12)%
12 (11)%
5 (4)%
44 (44)%
12 (12)%
7 (8)%
7 (7)%
5 (5)%
3 (2)%
24 (22)%
Approve
Disapprove
DK/Ref
66%
70%
47%
58%
70%
70%
72 (74)%
71 (72)%
66 (68)%
13%
17%
38%
27%
9%
9%
13 (14)%
14 (15)%
17 (17)%
21%
13%
16%
15%
21%
20%
15 (12)%
15 (14)%
18 (14%
51%
55%
55%
50%
43%
40 (44 )%
42 (45)%
30 (34)%
13%
10%
17%
24%
34%
24 (26)%
17 (18)%
28 (29)%
36%
35%
28%
26%
23%
36 (30)%
41 (35)%
42 (37)%
52%
56%
53%
51%
47 (48)%
51 (53)%
33 (34)%
11%
12%
18%
22%
27 (29)%
20 (21)%
41 (44)%
37%
32%
29%
27%
27 (21)%
29 (26)%
26 (23)%
38%
30%
42%
35 (31)%
32 (31)%
34 (31)%
27 (29)%
56%
65%
47%
57 (62)%
60 (64)%
59 (62)%
65 (66)%
7%
6%
10%
9 (7)%
8 (5)%
8 (6)%
8 (5)%
67 (70)%
3 (3)%
-3 (2)%
5 (4)%
3 (3)%
17 (17)%
In odd-numbered years, the Arkansas Poll records and codes the open-ended answers of respondents. In even-numbered years,
respondents are asked to choose from the most frequently mentioned issues of the previous year.
2
Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
2
Other/DK/Ref
34 (27)%
38 (34)%
37 (31)%
31 (26)%
17 (14)%
37 (39)%
26 (27)%
37 (34)%
20 (20)%
79 (79)%
2 (1)%
Current Issues
According to the Affordable Care Act, starting in January 2014, most Americans will be required to have
health insurance or pay a fine. Were you aware of this before now, or not?
Aware
89 (92)%
Not aware
9 (7)%
Dont Know/Refused
1 (1)%
And will you have insurance at that time, or do you think youll choose to pay the fine?
Will have health insurance
88 (92)%
Will pay the fine
5 (4)%
Dont know/Refused
7 (5)%
. How familiar are you with these health insurance exchanges? Would you say youre
Very familiar
12 (12)%
Somewhat familiar
27 (30)%
Not too familiar
26 (26)%
Not at all familiar
31 (29)%
Dont know/Refused
4 (3)%
First, in general, would you say you favor stricter gun
No
DK/
control, less strict gun control, or should no change be
Stricter
Less Strict
Change
Refused
made to existing gun control laws?
2000
39%
15%
42%
4%
2002
36%
15%
45%
4%
2004
38%
12%
45%
5%
2006
37%
11%
47%
5%
2008
29%
13%
54%
4%
2009
24%
20%
52%
4%
2013 33 (33)%
15 (15)%
47 (48)%
6 (4)%
Do you favor laws that would make it more difficult for
a woman to get an abortion, favor laws that would make
More
No
DK/
it easier to get an abortion or should no change be made
Difficult
Easier
Change
Refused
to existing abortion laws?
1999
45%
14%
32%
9%
2001
46%
13%
35%
7%
2003
47%
13%
33%
7%
2005
44%
9%
39%
8%
2007
41%
13%
36%
9%
2009
43%
11%
38%
8%
2013 44 (44)%
11 (11)%
34 (35)%
11 (10)%
3
Which of the following policy positions most closely resembles your own view regarding relationships
between two people of the same sex?3
Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
2005
15%
2007
16%
2009
18%
2011 23 (22)%
2013 23 (24)%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions or domestic partnerships, but not marry
2005
22%
2007
27%
2009
22%
2011 20 (22)%
2013 21 (23)%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couples relationship
2005
54%
2007
51%
2009
54%
2011 50 (51)%
2013 46 (46)%
dont know/refused
2005
9%
2007
6%
2009
6%
2011
7 (6)%
2013
9 (7)%
And which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be regarding undocumented
immigrants currently residing in the United States. Should the government:
allow them to remain in the United States to work for a limited amount of time?
2009
9%
2011
8 (8)%
2013
9 (9)%
allow them to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain criteria like learning English and
paying their back-taxes?
2009
57%
2011 56 (57)%
2013 59 (59)%
deport all?
2009
27%
2011 27 (28)%
2012 26 (25)%
2013 21 (21)%
allow them to become permanent residents with no requirements?
2009
2%
2011
3 (2)%
2013
2 (2)%
dont know/refused
2009
5%
2011
6 (6)%
2013
9 (8)%
3
Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
4
Approve
Disapprove
DK/Refused
35 (36)%
Should
52 (54)%
13 (10)%
Shouldnt
DK/Refused
78 (81)%
12 (11)%
9 (9)%
Republican
23%
23 (25)%
27%
28 (30)%
24%
30 (32)%
23%
23 (25)%
24%
24 (27)%
24%
21 (25)%
26 (29)%
29 (32)%
24 (27)%
Closer to
Republican
33%
35 (39)%
29%
30 (31)%
33%
39 (41)%
30%
33 (35)%
34%
35 (38)%
39%
44 (50)%
42 (48)%
41 (46)%
43 (51)%
Liberal
14%
16%
17%
15%
17%
Democrat
35%
36 (38)%
33%
33 (35)%
38%
35 (36)%
36%
36 (37)%
39%
35 (34)%
33%
28 (27)%
31 (33)%
31 (30)%
30 (31)%
Closer to
Democrat
29%
25 (26)%
36%
32 (34)%
34%
31 (32)%
35%
34 (34)%
37%
30 (29)%
32%
21 (16)%
29 (28 )%
26 (22)%
21 (22)%
Moderate
38%
36%
39%
39%
36%
Indept
31%
35 (34)%
32%
33 (31)%
31%
28 (27)%
33%
33 (33)%
30%
33 (33)%
34%
42 (41)%
34 (31)%
33 (32)%
37 (36)%
Just Indept
Other
4%
0%
5%
3 (2)%
4%
3 (3)%
4%
3 (3)%
3%
7 (5)%
7%
7 (6)%
6 (5)%
3 (3)%
4 (3)%
34%
35 (30)%
31%
33 (33)%
33%
30 (26)%
32%
30 (23)%
29%
33 (31)%
27%
33 (33)%
26 (22 )%
28 (27)%
31 (22)%
Conserve
38%
39%
38%
41%
39%
DK/
Refused4
7%
6 (2)%
3%
3 (2)%
3%
4 (2)%
4%
4 (3)%
2%
2 (1)%
3%
3 (1)%
4 (2)%
4 (3)%
5 (3)%
DK/
Refused
4%
5 (2)%
4%
4 (3)%
2%
0 (1)%
4%
2 (3)%
1%
3 (3)%
2%
2 (2)%
3 (2)%
6 (5)%
6 (6)%
DK/Ref
10%
9%
6%
5%
7%
Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
5
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
17%
13%
16%
16%
14%
14%
14 (12)%
16 (16)%
13 (12)%
14 (14)%
35%
40%
39%
37%
35%
37%
35 (36)%
34 (34)%
32 (32)%
31 (31)%
42%
39%
39%
39%
43%
42%
44 (48)%
45 (47)%
46 (51)%
44 (48)%
7%
8%
7%
6%
8%
7%
8 (4)%
5 (3)%
9 (6)%
11 (7)%
Life in Arkansas
Overall, do you feel that Arkansas is generally headed in
the right direction or the wrong direction?
2003
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Would you say you are better off financially, worse off,
or about the same compared to a year ago?
2003
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
And, looking ahead, do you think a year from now, you
will be as now?
2003
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Right
Wrong
63%
73%
69%
71%
72%
67 (68)%
74 (76)%
73 (74)%
63 (66)%
Better
26%
18%
21%
19%
16%
22 (21)%
20 (19)%
17 (17)%
20 (20)%
About the
Same
45%
49%
48%
38%
46%
46 (47)%
49 (49)%
49 (50)%
58 (58)%
About the
Same
49%
46%
45%
39%
48%
46 (45)%
52 (56)%
48 (46)%
47 (49)%
27%
28%
30%
20%
22%
19 (18)%
19 (19)%
23 (24)%
14 (14)%
Better
35%
34%
38%
35%
32%
28 (25)%
25 (21)%
26 (27)%
18 (18)%
Worse
28%
22%
20%
41%
31%
34 (35)%
31 (32)%
27 (26)%
26 (26)%
Worse
12%
15%
12%
18%
17%
20 (23)%
18 (20)%
13 (13)%
24 (25)%
DK/
Refused5
11%
9%
8%
10%
12%
11 (11)%
7 (6)%
10 (9)%
16 (14)%
DK/
Refused
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1 (0)%
1 (1)%
0 (1)%
2 (1)%
DK/
Refused
5%
5%
3%
8%
4%
7 (7)%
4 (4)%
13 (14)%
11 (8)%
Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
6
Between October 10th and October 17th Issues & Answers Network, Inc. completed 800 telephone surveys
among a random sample of adult Arkansans. Twenty percent of all respondents interviewed (n=160) use
their cell phones for all or most of their calls.
The surveys margin of error statewide is +/- 3.5 percentage points, meaning that we are 95 percent confident
that the actual result lies within 3.5 percentage points (in either direction) of the result our sample produced.
Employing guidelines established by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the polls
overall cooperation rate was 27% (29% for landline calls and 22% for cell phone calls). This figure reflects
completed surveys as a percentage of all eligible individuals contacted.
To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team publishes what
most polling organizations do not: a comparison of survey respondents key demographic characteristics to
those of the state as a whole. This information is reported in the table below.
2013 Arkansas Poll
Sample
55-64
58%
State of Arkansas
Q1
I would first like to ask you how many years you have lived in Arkansas, or have you lived
here all of your life?
Gave number of years ........................................................................... 01 (enter number of years)
Less than one year ................................................................................. 96
All my life ............................................................................................. 97
Don't know ............................................................................................ 98
Refused .................................................................................................. 99
Do not currently live in Arkansas ........................................................ 90 [TERMINATE]
Q49
(RECORD GENDER BY OBSERVATION. IF UNSURE, ASK: And, I am required to ask
you this, are you male or female?) (DO NOT READ LIST)
Male ......................................................................................................... 1
Female ..................................................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8 [TERMINATE]
Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [TERMINATE]
Independent ................................ 10
Izard ............................................ 11
Jackson........................................ 12
Jefferson...................................... 62
Johnson ....................................... 40
Lafayette ..................................... 63
Lawrence .................................... 13
Lee .............................................. 14
Lincoln ........................................ 64
Little River .................................. 65
Logan .......................................... 66
Lonoke ........................................ 15
Madison ...................................... 41
Marion ........................................ 42
Miller .......................................... 67
Mississippi .................................. 16
Monroe........................................ 17
Montgomery ............................... 68
Nevada ........................................ 69
Newton........................................ 43
Ouachita ...................................... 70
Perry............................................ 29
Philips ......................................... 18
Pike ............................................. 71
Poinsett ....................................... 19
Polk ............................................. 72
Pope ............................................ 44
Prairie.......................................... 20
Pulaski ........................................ 30
Randolph ..................................... 21
Saline .......................................... 31
Scott ............................................ 73
Searcy ......................................... 23
Sebastian ..................................... 45
Sevier .......................................... 74
Sharp ........................................... 24
St. Francis ................................... 22
Stone ........................................... 25
Union .......................................... 75
Van Buren ................................... 32
Washington ................................. 46
White .......................................... 33
Woodruff .................................... 26
Yell ............................................. 34
In your opinion, what do you think is the most important problem or issue facing
people in Arkansas today? (DO NOT READ LIST, SELECT ONE)
The economy/Jobs/Unemployment/Poverty .............................. 01
Education ..................................................................................... 02
Healthcare/Health insurance/Access to doctors/Costs. .............. 03
Drugs ........................................................................................... 04
Taxes/Big Government ........................................................... 05
Immigration ................................................................................. 06
Budget/Deficit/Debt .................................................................... 10
Crime .......................................................................................... 11
Morality/Family breakdown/Religion (God/Bible, etc.) ............ 12
Politicians/Politics ....................................................................... 13
Racism ......................................................................................... 14
Roads ........................................................................................... 15
War/Afghanistan/Iraq/Terrorism ................................................. 16
Environment/Climate change/Global warming ........................... 17
Fuel/Energy/Gas prices ............................................................... 18
Other (specify)............................................................................. 19
Don't know .................................................................................. 88
Refused ........................................................................................ 99
COMM1
Thank you. Let's move on to your thoughts on some of the people who are involved in
government and politics. [ROTATE Q4-Q7]
Q4
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Beebe is handling his job as governor? (DO
NOT READ LIST)
Approve ................................................................................................... 1
Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q5
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
(DO NOT READ LIST)
Approve ................................................................................................... 1
Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
[SKIP TO Q51]
[SKIP TO Q51]
[CONTINUE TO Q50B]
[SKIP TO Q51]
[SKIP TO Q51]
Q50B
[SKIP TO Q52]
[SKIP TO Q52]
[CONTINUE TO Q51B]
[SKIP TO Q52]
[SKIP TO Q52]
Q51B
Q21
And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic group: (READ LIST,
SELECT ONE)
White ....................................................................................................... 1
Black or African-American ..................................................................... 2
Hispanic ................................................................................................... 3
Asian........................................................................................................ 4
Native American ..................................................................................... 5
Multi-Ethnic ............................................................................................ 6
Something else ........................................................................................ 7
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
COMM6
Thank you. The next questions are about your general evaluation of the quality of life in our
state.
Q31
Overall, do you feel that Arkansas is generally headed in the right direction or the wrong
direction? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Right ........................................................................................................ 1
Wrong ...................................................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q32
On a more individual level, would you say you are better off financially, worse off, or about
the same compared to a year ago? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Better ....................................................................................................... 1
Worse ...................................................................................................... 2
About the same ........................................................................................ 3
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q33
And, looking ahead, do you think that a year from now, you will be better off financially,
worse off, or about the same as now? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Better ....................................................................................................... 1
Worse ...................................................................................................... 2
About the same ........................................................................................ 3
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
[SKIP TO Q34B]
[SKIP TO Q34C]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
Q34A
Would you call yourself a strong Republican, or a not very strong Republican? (DO NOT
READ LIST)
Strong Republican ................................................................................... 1
Not very strong Republican..................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
Q34B
Would you call yourself a strong Democrat, or a not very strong Democrat? (DO NOT
READ LIST)
Strong Democrat ..................................................................................... 1
Not a very strong Democrat .................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
Q34C
Well, do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic Party? (DO NOT
READ LIST)
Closer to Republican ............................................................................... 1
Closer to Democrat.................................................................................. 2
Just Independent ...................................................................................... 3
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
10
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q35B]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
Q35A
Would you say you are strongly Liberal or somewhat Liberal? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Strongly Liberal....................................................................................... 1
Somewhat Liberal ................................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
Q35B
Would you say that you are strongly Conservative or somewhat Conservative? (DO NOT
READ LIST)
Strongly Conservative ............................................................................. 1
Somewhat Conservative .......................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
Q36
Which of the following income categories best describes your total 2013 household
income? I have a list here, feel free to stop me at any time. Was it(READ LIST)
$7,500 or less......................................................................................... 01
$7,501 to $15,000 .................................................................................. 02
$15,001 to $25,000 ................................................................................ 03
$25,001 to $35,000 ................................................................................ 04
$35,001 to $50,000 ................................................................................ 05
$50,001 to $75,000 ................................................................................ 06
$75,001 to $100,000 .............................................................................. 07
$100,001 or over ................................................................................... 08
(DO NOT READ) Don't know .............................................................. 98
(DO NOT READ) Refused ................................................................... 99
11
[SKIP TO Q41]
[SKIP TO Q41]
[SKIP TO Q41]
[SKIP TO Q41]
[SKIP TO Q41]
Q40
12
13
Q46
Are you a registered voter?
Yes ........................................................................................................... 1
No ............................................................................................................ 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q47
And, how likely are you to vote in the next elections that take place in November 2014?
Are you:
Very Likely ............................................................................................. 1
Likely ...................................................................................................... 2
Unlikely ................................................................................................... 3
Very unlikely ........................................................................................... 4
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
Q48
In what year were you born? (DONT KNOW=9998, REFUSED=9999)
_______ Enter Year
ZIP
[ASK CELL PHONE SAMPLE ONLY]
What is your zip code? (DONT KNOW=99998, REFUSED=99999)
_______ Enter zip code
COMM7
Thank you very much for helping us with the Arkansas Poll. Have a nice
day/afternoon/evening.
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