Professional Documents
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Sample Size
11:00am
35
34
25
24
X-Bar
29.5
20
19.75
18.5
21.25
CL X-Bar
21.8
21.8
21.8
21.8
21.8
UCLx
LCLx
27.632
15.968
27.632 27.632
15.97 15.968
27.632
15.968
27.632
15.968
R-Chart
CL R-Chart
UCLr
LCLr
11
8
18.256
0
7
6
8
8
18.256 18.256
0
0
8
8
18.256
0
8
8
18.256
0
A2
1.880
1.023
0.729
0.577
10
0.308
0.223
15
0.223
0.348
20
0.180
0.414
25
0.153
0.459
UCLx x A2 R
A2 =
LCLx x A2 R
D4 =
D3 =
UCLR D4 R
LCLR D3 R
X-Bar
30
20
X-Bar
25
CL X-Bar
15
10
UCLx
20
LCLx
15
5
0
D3
A2
D3
D4
1.880
3.267
1.023
2.575
0.729
2.282
0.577
2.115
0.308
0.223
1.777
0.223
0.348
1.652
0.180
0.414
1.586
0.153
0.459
1.541
0.729
0.000
2.282
R-Chart
R-Chart
CL R-Chart
UCLr
LCLr
3 5. Okland has developed the tasks, durations, and predecessor relationships in the following table for part of
Draw the precedence network for the project and answer the questions that follow. The Beta distribution is assum
Expected Time = (To + 4Tm + Tp)/(6)
Variance = [(Tp - To)/6]2
Immediate
Predecessor(s)
Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
None
A
A
B
B
C
D
E, F
5
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
Most
Likely
6
6
4
3
4
4
4
3
Pessimistic
19
7
5
5
17
6
5
4
Expected
Time
8
6
4
3
6
4
4
3
Variance
5.44
0.11
0.11
0.44
5.44
0.44
0.11
0.11
3. What are the ES (earliest start) and the LS (latest start) for each task based on the expected task times?
14
16
8
8
ES
LS
START
0
0
B, 6
A, 8
8
12
C, 4
D, 3
14
14
E, 6
12
16
F, 4
4. What is the probability of completion of the project before week 26 using the critical path based on the expect
Critical Path = Longest Path = A-B-E-H
Variance =
11.11
Sqrt =
3.33
Z=
Probability =
0.9
81.59%
<-- = (26-23)/(3.33)
<-- = Normsdist(Z)
5. Okland developed a project crashing data table for the building project as shown below. Use expected task tim
answer questions and assume that there is no uncertainty for the times listed. Crash time is the absolute minimum
Task
Normal Time
Crash Time
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
8
6
4
3
6
4
4
3
7
2
1
2
5
1
1
1
Cost per
week to
crash
$11,000
$6,000
$7,000
$5,000
$4,000
$8,000
$10,000
$9,000
Week
1
2
3
4
5
Crash Activity
Original
E
B
B
B
H
Total
Cost
$0
$4,000
$6,000
$6,000
$6,000
$9,000
$31,000
A
8
8
8
8
8
7
B
6
6
5
4
3
3
E
6
5
5
5
5
5
H
3
3
3
3
3
3
17
19
G, 4
23
20
20
H, 3
End
Length
23
22
21
20
19
18
ES
EF
LS
LF
14 23
17 26
C,9
4 14
14 20
4 14
20 26
23 31
31 36
26 34
34 39
E,8
G,5
39 45
START
A,4
B,10
D,6
39 45
14 30
30 39
14 30
30 39
F,16
H,9
I, 6
END
39 45
39 45
I, 6
END
Mean
3.15
Absolute Error
Squared Error
Absolute Error
29
9.5
19
11.5
8.5
13.5
25
25
2
2.5
841
90.25
361
132.25
72.25
182.25
625
625
4
6.25
20.00%
6.74%
15.32%
9.50%
7.46%
12.98%
18.66%
17.36%
1.46%
1.81%
14.55
293.93
11.13%
14.05
Squared Error
Absolute Error
16
936.36
554.13
17.52
0.59
39.81
245.81
252.47
590.51
221.13
206.88
3.39%
21.10%
16.70%
3.38%
0.63%
5.53%
15.08%
11.86%
16.88%
10.85%
10.42%
280.11
10.53%
For Mean Squared Error, our smoothed forecast is better since it has a smaller forecast error
of 280.11 vs. a two-week moving average error of 293.93
155
145
135
125
Demand
115
105
Forecast - SES
95
85
75
0
10
11
12
13
orecast error
Demand
Forecast - Two Week MA
Forecast - SES
A firm has collected the following quarterly sales data on a key product:
a) Create a seasonally adjusted forecast for year 4 (to 2 decimal places) using the method shown in class
Year/Quarter
2012/1
2012/2
2012/3
2012/4
2013/1
2013/2
2013/3
2013/4
2014/1
2014/2
2014/3
2014/4
2015/1
2015/2
2015/3
2015/4
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Sales
40.00
39.00
43.00
41.00
41.00
43.00
46.00
47.00
49.00
50.00
51.00
55.00
Year 4 Forecasts
54.12
55.46
56.80
58.14
Regression Forecasts
38.05
39.39
40.73
42.07
43.41
44.75
46.09
47.43
48.76
50.10
51.44
52.78
1.00
0.98
1.02
1.00
Actual/Projected
1.05
0.99
1.06
0.97
0.94
0.96
1.00
0.99
1.00
1.00
0.99
1.04
Seasonally Adjusted
54.13
54.52
57.66
58.29
36.7121
1.3392
Quarter
1
2
3
4
Seasonal Index
1.00
0.98
1.02
1.00