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Sobha Developers
Cashflows firming up
| SOBHA IN
Sobha 2QFY14 earnings report highlights sustained operational cashflow generation capability led by growing collections of `6.3/`12.5bn in 2Q/1H. It remains confident of achieving fresh sales guidance of `26bn in FY14 along with target D/E within 0.6. Net Debt remained largely unchanged at `12.6bn with outstanding real estate order book of `22bn as at Sept13. Project margins remained stable but revenue mix and one-off property salepurchase transaction led to temporary drop in margins in 2Q. Maintain BUY.
Key Data
Market cap (bn) Shares in issue (mn) Diluted share (mn) 3-mon avg daily val (mn) 52-week range Sensex/Nifty
Real estate project margins intact, overall margins dip due to revenue mix: a) 2Q revenue grew 30% to `5.4bn primarily due to higher execution led billing in contract business. Higher contribution (32% of revenue) from low margin contract business (18-20% margin) and one-off property sale-purchase transaction (11% margin on c.`400mn transaction) led to overall gross margin compression of 6ppt YoY. Real estate business margins remained stable across projects as cost escalations were offset by price increases. EBITDA/Net profit grew 12%-13% to `1.4bn/0.57bn. b) Net Debt largely unchanged at `12.6bn with underlying Net D/E of 0.57; cost of debt at 12.73% (-20bps QoQ); mandatory debt repayments in 2H at `1.6bn. c) Order book stood at `22bn as at Sept13 partly due to delayed revenue recognition under new accounting rules. d) Customer collections of `6.3bn/`12.5bn led to solid operational cashflows in 2Q/1H at `1.4bn/`2.6bn. Maintains guidance supported by robust launch plans: 1H performance marks 48% achievement of FY14 sales target; management remains confident of achieving FY14 sales guidance of `26bn supported by existing inventories across locations and new project launches. Currently it has presence in 8 Indian cities and plans to enter Kochi in FY14. Launch pipeline of 12mn sq ft over next 3-4 quarters is primarily residential along with a 2.6mn sq ft commercial project. It aims to double sales volume in 5years timeframe. Maintain BUY with Sept14 target price of `430: Sobha remains our preferred pick in real estate with focused residential exposure in South India geography which is performing better than rest of India. We maintain BUY with Sept14 target price of `430. 2QFY14 Operations highlights discussed in detail in our report Growth led by core market performance dated 4th Oct 2013
`/US$
Daily Performance
460 410 360 310 260 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Sobha Developers
1M -4.0 -9.0
3M 8.0 -3.5
Shareholding Pattern
Sept13 Promoters FII DII Public / others 60.58 33.16 2.57 3.69
(%)
Sept12 60.58 32.78 3.05 3.59
E 1.Vicky
(` mn)
FY15E 29,107 31.1 8,805 30.3 4,226 43.1 43.9 14.7 17.1 7.1 1.1 4.9
JM Financial Research is also available on: Bloomberg - JMFR <GO>, Thomson Publisher & Reuters. Please see important disclosure at the end of the report
Sobha Developers
6 November 2013
(` mn)
4QFY12 5,231 2,492 52.4% 1,916 36.6% 117 1,799 13 340 1,472 497 33.8% 975 18.6% 967 1QFY13 4,332 2,239 48.3% 1,198 27.7% 140 1,058 16 377 697 247 35.4% 450 10.4% 450 2QFY13 4,148 1,987 52.1% 1,285 31.0% 141 1,144 14 443 715 214 29.9% 501 12.1% 501 3QFY13 4,298 2,062 52.0% 1,374 32.0% 153 1,221 15 439 797 271 34.0% 526 12.2% 526 4QFY13 5,867 3,271 44.2% 1,626 27.7% 160 1,466 11 446 1,031 336 32.6% 695 11.8% 695 1QFY14 4,616 2,122 54.0% 1,390 30.1% 165 1,225 14 396 843 342 41% 501 11% 501 2QFY14 5,408 2,928 45.9% 1,433 26.5% 172 1,261 37 434 864 298 34% 566 10% 566 YoY% 30% 47% -624 bps 12% -448 bps 22% 10% 164% -2% 21% 39% 456 bps 13% -161 bps 13% QoQ% 17% 38% -817 bps 3% -361 bps 4% 3% 164% 10% 2% -13% -608 bps 13% -39 bps 13%
3QFY12 3,128 1,275 59.2% 1,137 36.3% 106 1,031 22 317 736 230 31.3% 506 16.2% 494
2,943 1,215 58.7% 955 32.4% 91 864 28 341 551 197 35.8% 354 12.0% 339
(` mn)
Change 0 567 567 0 -39 99 0 0 60 506 637 936 -795 1,284 1,911 981 21,453 22,434 102 463 842 178 14 1,497 13,506 4,580 9,171 756 28,013 52,046
1QFY14 981 20,886 21,867 102 502 743 178 14 1,437 13,000 3,943 8,235 1,551 26,729 50,135
2QFY14
981 20,386 21,367 102 526 638 178 14 1,356 13,010 4,096 7,244 1,423 25,773 48,598
3,301 0 0 4,314 0 20 152 7,787 2 19,018 1,641 670 14,358 5,122 40,811 48,598
3,302 0 0 4,357 0 0 0 7,659 6 19,984 1,795 716 15,107 4,868 42,476 50,135
3,615 0 0 4,348 0 77 154 8,194 166 20,746 2,245 690 15,021 4,984 43,852 52,046
313 0 0 -9 0 77 154 535 160 762 450 -26 -86 116 1,376 1,911
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Sobha Developers
6 November 2013
(mn sq ft)
Bangalore (as % of total sales) (RHS) 64% 67% 66% 69% 66% 63% 60% 0.92 1.00 2QFY14 57% 72%
5.
(mn sq ft)
(mn sq ft)
YoY% 14% -13% 49% -67% 6% 4% 6% QoQ% 12% -31% NA -45% 4% 35% 9%
Mysore Chennai 2.2% 8.7% NCR 3.1% Pune 1.3% Coimbatore 1.6% Thrissur 10.3%
Kozhikode 5.6%
Bangalore 67.3%
7.
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Sobha Developers
6 November 2013
29.0 10.7
29.3
29.4
30.2
25 20 15 10 5 0
11.4
11.1
12.5 8.7
11.7
12.4
17.4
17.4
18.4
18.9
19.4
3 0
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
10.
(mn sq ft)
8.2
1.3
1.3
7.3
7.3
0.1
5 2QFY14
13.
(` bn)
(mn sq ft)
Book Value - Rs/sq ft (RHS) 110 105 100 95 87 90 85 227 2QFY14 80
19.7
-2.2 2QFY14
15.
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Sobha Developers
6 November 2013
(%)
(%)
80%
35%
70%
30%
31%
40%
15%
30%
2QFY12
4QFY12
2QFY13
4QFY13
2QFY14
17.
(` bn)
0.8
(` bn)
14
13
12
11
10
13.6 2QFY12
12.7
11.3 4QFY12
11.8
12.9 2QFY13
13.2
12.2 4QFY13
12.3
12.7 2QFY14
8
13.6 2QFY12
12.7
11.3 4QFY12
11.8
12.9 2QFY13
13.2
12.2 4QFY13
12.3
12.7 2QFY14
0.5
19.
(` bn)
(` bn)
7.5 6.9 6.7
19.4
19
18
17
16
Source: Company, JM Financial; Note: Incl Trade receivables and other current assets
21.
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Sobha Developers
6 November 2013
Company Background
Sobha is a dominant real estate player in South India with land bank of c.220mn sq ft. It is now emerging as a pan-India developer - the foray into Gurgaon, Mysore and Chennai in FY12 has increased its presence to 7 Indian cities through real estate projects and over 20 cities through contract business. It is primarily a residential developer with development history of c.56mn sq ft (>300 projects) as at Mar13. It currently has c.36mn sq ft of ongoing projects (real estate and contract business) and plans to launch 12mn sq ft over coming quarters. It has a contract division catering to inhouse project development requirements as well as third party projects on a cost-plus margin basis. (` bn)
FY12A 10.3 2.3 1.4 0.1 14.1 FY13A 14.1 3.0 1.6 0.1 18.6 FY14E 17.3 3.3 1.6 0.1 22.2 FY15E 23.8 3.6 1.7 0.1 29.1 FY11A Real Estate Income Contractual Income Manufacturing Income Excise Total Revenue 10.7 2.3 0.9 0.0 13.9
Source: JM Financial
Investment Rationale
New cities with stable Bangalore market to fuel growth: Predominantly it used to be a Bangalore focused player but with foray into 3 new cities in FY12 and plans to enter markets of Kochi, Kozhikode, Hyderabad, Noida and Ghaziabad, it will soon establish itself as a pan-India developer. New cities with stable Bangalore market to fuel growth for the company. Expect cash surplus of over `38bn from projects under execution: Sobha can generate c.`38bn cash surplus from c.18mn sq ft project under execution in real estate segment (Sobhas economic interest 16mn sq ft over 40% presold as at Mar13). Diversified low-cost land bank: Sobha has a diversified land bank of c.220m sf in 8 Indian cities. Land bank is highly concentrated in South India with Bangalore, Cochin, Chennai and Hosur cumulatively forming >90% of the total land bank. Average book value of `88/sq ft as at Mar13.
Key Risks
High dependence on Bangalore - a key market for Sobha: Sobha has diversified itself with projects across 7 Indian cities and is aiming entry into couple of new cities. However, Bangalore remains a key micro market with dominant c.63% volume share in total sales by company (based on FY13 operations). Input cost pressure remains a challenge: Input cost pressures were witnessed in recent past as increase in realisations overtime failed to translate into margin expansion. Rise in prices of material, labour has pushed up total construction costs offsetting price increase benefits. Venturing into new geographies: India real estate is a localized play and entry into new geographies is a challenging task for a new player. Gaining market share from existing established players can take more than anticipated time and result in delayed monetisation of projects.
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Sobha Developers
6 November 2013
(` mn)
FY15E 29,107 31.1 0 15,825 1,803 2,673 8,805 30.3 30.9 0 668 8,137 -1,833 6,304 2,080 0 -1 4,226 4,226 14.5 98 43.1 43.9 1,232
Balance Sheet
Y/E March Share capital Other capital Reserves and surplus Networth Total loans Minority interest Sources of funds Intangible assets Fixed assets Less: Depn. and amort. Net block Capital WIP Investments Def tax assets/- liability Current assets Inventories Sundry debtors Cash & bank balances Other current assets Loans & advances Current liabilities & prov. Current liabilities Provisions and others Net current assets Others (net) Application of funds FY11A 981 0 17,527 18,508 12,593 324 31,425 0 3,148 1,775 1,373 647 37 74 36,816 10,685 1,081 230 3,229 21,592 7,521 6,580 942 29,295 0 31,425 FY12A 981 0 19,017 19,998 12,585 355 32,938 42 4,956 2,158 2,840 13 0 -330 39,520 16,759 1,180 588 2,724 18,268 9,104 7,718 1,386 30,416 0 32,938 FY13A 981 0 20,386 21,366 13,965 102 35,433 132 5,344 2,176 3,301 0 2 -638 45,294 19,018 1,662 670 5,274 18,671 12,526 11,088 1,438 32,769 0 35,433 FY14E 981 0 22,295 23,276 13,680 100 37,056 132 5,644 2,809 2,967 0 2 -638 47,304 20,041 1,603 1,885 5,274 18,500 12,579 11,142 1,438 34,725 0 37,056
(` mn)
FY15E 981 0 25,289 26,270 13,446 99 39,815 132 5,944 3,477 2,599 0 2 -638 49,568 21,830 1,779 471 5,274 20,213 11,716 10,278 1,438 37,852 0 39,815
(` mn)
FY15E 4,226 668 -1,930 -1 2,963 0 -300 -2,612 -2,912 0 -1,232 -234 0 -1,466 -1,414 1,885 471
Key Ratios
Y/E March BV/Share (`) ROIC (%) ROE (%) Net Debt/equity ratio (x) Valuation ratios (x) PER PBV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Turnover ratios (no.) Debtor days Inventory days Creditor days 28 280 153 31 435 300 33 373 164 26 330 131 22 274 93 16.6 1.6 11.8 3.0 14.6 1.5 9.1 3.0 13.8 1.4 8.0 2.3 10.2 1.3 6.2 1.9 7.1 1.1 4.9 1.5 FY11A 188.7 7.8 10.2 0.7 FY12A 203.8 8.9 10.7 0.6 FY13A 217.8 9.8 10.5 0.6 FY14E 237.3 11.7 13.2 0.5 FY15E 267.8 14.7 17.1 0.5
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Sobha Developers
History of earnings estimates and target price
Date 23-Apr-12 8-May-12 26-Jun-12 8-Aug-12 2-Nov-12 2-Apr-13 10-May-13 14-Jun-13 12-Aug-13 12-Sep-13 FY14E EPS (`) 37.0 37.2 34.9 33.2 35.5 27.8 30.5 30.7 29.9 29.9 0.5 -6.2 -4.9 6.9 -21.7 9.7 0.7 -2.6 0.0 49.4 45.7 43.4 44.9 43.8 43.8 -7.5 -5.0 3.5 -2.4 0.0 % Chg. FY15E EPS (`) % Chg. Target Price 440 440 440 440 450 475 475 475 430 430 Target Date Mar-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Mar-14 Mar-14 Mar-14 Mar-14 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 5.6 0.0 0.0 -9.5 0.0 % Chg.
6 November 2013
Recommendation history
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 BB B B B B
Sobha Developers
B B
B B
Target P rice
So bha Developers
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