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Futures for Afghanistan Author(s): Anthony Hyman Source: The World Today, Vol. 50, No. 12 (Dec.

, 1994), pp. 229-233 Published by: Royal Institute of International Affairs Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40396562 . Accessed: 27/10/2013 08:08
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AFGHANISTAN
1July 1994. Service: Former USSR. Reuter Australasian Briefing, 19. Kazakhstanskaia Pravda,10 March1992. 20. Kazakhstanskaia Pravda,23 June1992. 21. Argumenty No 40, October 1993,p.5. ifakty, 22. 'Kazakhstan:Freed Russian ActivistSays Minority RightsAbused in BBC Monitoring Service:Former USSR. Reuter Australasian Kazakhstan', 2 June 1994. Briefing, v period naidena 23. Quoted inTatiana 'Kazakhstan Kviatkovskaia, superkrizisa: li obshchenatsionalnaia Kazakhstanskaia Pravda,9 April1994,p.2. tsel?', BBC 24. 'Kazakhstan: KazakhLeaderCalls forEnd to Ethnic Discrimination', 14 June 1994. Former USSR. Reuter Australasian Service: Briefing, Monitoring E. Fuller, Asia. TheNewGeopolitics 25. Graham Central (SantaMonica,CA: RAND, 1994),p. 46. 26. Izvestiia, 1994. 23 February 27. izvestiia, 26 January 1994. Vol. E. Fuller, 'Central Asia:TheQuest for 28. Graham ,Current History, Identity' 93, No 582,April1994,p. 148. - kakuslovie obshchestva Ideinaiakonsolidatsiia 29. N. Nazarbaev, progressa to Kazakhstanskaia as an attachment Kazakhstana. Published Pravda, 9 of 1993.Itis interesting matters wasa kind that onideological October writing dull K. andevenotherwise whim CPSU leadership since the Brezhnev, amongst

THE WORLD TODAY 229


Chernenko tribute toit. paidlavish 30. Ibid.,p.7. 31. Kazakhstanskaia Pravda,10 March1992. 32. Asquoted inTheSoviet CT: Praeger, 1993), Legacy, byRoyD. Laird (Westport, evolution ofGeneral Rutskoi's views onstrong and p. 175.Further government lawandorder placedhimattheheadofthebloody mutiny against popularly inOctober elected President Yeltsin 1993. 33. 'Kazakhstan: BBC OpinionPoll Shows Fall in Nazarbaev'sPopularity', Service: Former USSR. Reuter Australasian 29 March Monitoring Briefing, 1994. 34. Although all five Central Asianrepublics arereferred toas Moslem countries, Islam inKazakhstan. doesnot havedeeproots Itwasintroduced tothe nomadic Kazakhs 200years 'basedalmost onritual rather than only agoandisstill entirely BrillOlcott, 'Central Asia's IslamicAwakening', Current dogma'.(Martha Vol. 93, No 582,April1994,p. 153).Nazarbaev is theonlyCentral History, Asianleader whoopenly stresses that heisa non-believer. 35. W. Fierman Central Asia: the Failed Transformation (Ed.), Soviet (Boulder, CO: Westview Press,1993),p. 304. 36. John F. Helliwell, between andEconomic 'Empirical Linkages Democracy British Journal Vol. 24, Part Growth', 2, April1994,p. ofPoliticalScience, 246.

forAfghanistan Futures
Anthony Hyman
and also lacks moralauthority to rule the thenature oftheproblems toreview Thisarticle facing has few resources attempts The 'ministries' arehollowshells, morepotential of how theinterna- country. than and also to makean estimate Afghanistan, of activity. tionalcommunity is, could be or shouldbe helpingtowards actualcentres mission wasleft inKabulafter Nota single an end a settlement andreaching reconstruction and,hopefully, foreign diplomatic on Pakistan's at thebeginning of 1994, wasthe ofaneloquent themobattack tothe war.'How tohelpAfghanistan' embassy topic haverecently to KabulPakistani returned Note in The WorldTodayof April 1994, written diplomats by William although theconsulates of the oftheAfghan that thedesperate Instead, embassythere. people the sole foreign plight Maley.He urged from states arebeingrun Mazar-e-Sharif but various inthe Western with indifference not beregarded should Herat, world, regional Whatever was valuedin Kabul before the 1978 basic grounds four shouldbe seen to matter, whythere and Jalalabad. giving - moral, and the long war whichfollowedhas been and Saur Revolution concern be Western should humanitarian, political andhighly orlooted, andthis oncecivilised social. destroyed cosmopoli- that wasteland. matters and tanAsiancapitalis nowa cultural On thecruxof theargument Afghanistan hasbeena gradual ofAfghanistan Thedisintegration tothe'solitary, abandoned should notbe cynically that process, Afghans of the state This the fatal weakness Thomas sketched existence short' and brutish apparatus. process by helped by poore,nasty, thecollapseofthe Hobbes- all people of goodwillcan agree.It is because the actually beganin thelate 1980s,wellbefore in April 1992. It took the form of a inKabul,as wellas because Najibullahgovernment has shifted equation power political on to local militia based tribal or devolution of other than on certain from views differ thisauthor's powers groups Maley's This or sectarian to local or ethnic alliances is offered. this article that issues, solidarity. brought symbolic in General Rashid Dostum Mazar-e-Sharif SincetheendofJune1994mostof Kabullies in thecontrol regional prominence in and manylesserfigures so-called the ofJamiat-i-Islami forces, fighting and the Ismailisin Pul-e-Khumri, yet 'government', As in Barnett Rubin or semi- different is now in ruins and muchof thecityitself continues correctly provinces. predicted in will 'whatever the these that this farce to almost a seems it derelict. 1992, sad, Indeed, happens capital, groups January pretend sentfrom Kabul'.1 powerto officials cityis stillin anyrealsensethecapitalofAfghanistan, noteasilysurrender decrepit of thecentral The weakness senseofthe inthe as such, a 'government' orthat term, powerin Kabul is particularly recognised in thecase of Afghanistan's eastern and southern is nowone of thebroken- striking in Kabul.Afghanistan is in existence provon Pakistan. This not so was much a caseofKabul for the inces outside and backedstatesof thethird world, bordering help any and acceptcontrol to deal withlocal warlords in mind. having with thisreality be formulated by local peopleshould Afghan of the ISI Services militias but,rather, Pakistan, (Inter through of Afghanistan links with newdirect commanders Intelligence), forging Afghan Disintegration Pashtun clan or tribal rivalries. This to and from Kabul have devolved Powerand resources manipulating provincial shrewdly of to a reversal of influence andconveniences amounted services few ofthe while Kabulhasvery centres, patterns prewar alongthe 'For hadfavoured Kabul. decades Durand in modern takenforgranted Line,which capitalsaroundthe world.The so-called to acrossthat usedtribal Burhanuddin under theinterim Rabbani, Afghanistan President, disputed boundary politics 'government'

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230 THE WORLD TODAY

DECEMBER 1994

Other a capability Pakistan hasnowfully (NGOs) areat work, Pakistan; organisations non-governmental developed pressure Oxfam Care sans Mdecins to do thesamein theother direction.'2 International, Frontires, including Mission (IAM) of Christian Assistance and the International Miseries of lifein Kabul and represented the oldest NGO in Afghanistan volunteers, theNOOR Eye IAM still maintains Forsome1.5mpeoplestill in life has become since 1966. continuously living Kabul,daily Herat and in clinics and difficult as The and well as Kabul, uncomfortable, Institute, eyehospitals terribly dangerous. assisting What of and of the areas the Mazar-e-Sharif varies between different Afghan ophthalmologists. is training impact fighting greatly in of a surprise in Kabul is a UN Some like Af shar which were something densely populated lacking city. quarters presence in to UN efforts now out of bounds to of the a lie in ruins or are view helpgetpeace Afghanilong-standing only year ago effectively toleave ordered were staff The three stan. LastJanuary, the UN's expatriate becauseofthedangers from outsiders heavy fighting. of them Some most needed. have when were newer areas of Soviet-built Kabul blocks, arguably they Mikroyans, just apartment has not but it like for safer and a few other left also suffered But Khairkhana Islamabad, piaces unwillingly great quite damage. the UN the scorn about rocket attacks areas are relatively unscathed, among expatripull-out great stray suffering prevented in Kabul amiditsdangers. rather thanwholesale destruction. ates stillworking while and Civilian hasbeenterrible this hunger suffering year, The poppies of Afghanistan been have diseasearespreading fast. Morethan 600,000Afghans as in Burma in Afghanistan often toflee as refugees andmost arefacing Warsand drugs forced ordisplaced go together, persons, with combined control central Freedom from a precarious without outsidehelp.While before. existence government significant internaand both to serves someKabulishavebecomeinured to suchconditions andeven openborders production encourage - sensitive ofopiuminside in narcotics. Cultivation are shocked resilient visitors Afghanitrading by the tional proved foreign life extent ofthedestruction andhowbrutish hasbecomeinwhat stan has risen steadilyover the past decade, and narcotics of heroinis almostentirely in the form a relatively usedtobe evenrather exported. placetolive. production recently peaceful Kabul is under varywidelyabout the scale of opiumproduction. permanent siege,and forthatreasonhas been Estimates in 1993 ofopium thevolume toUN experts, to Sarajevo.Itsdestruction has ledRaymond According produced compared bymany of from tons both tosome2,200metric to compare amounted Whitaker itto post-Hitler Berlin.3 countries, which closetothe inAfghanistan, from The current roundof fighting 1994 90 percent provinces originates began on 1 January theforces between of theso-called'government' with Pakistan. of Professor borders Frontier and Baluchistan Rabbaniand AhmedShah Massoud,on theone hand,and the In Pakistan'sNorth-West provis thriving. forces of Hizb-i-Islami trade combined of Gulbuddin and inces,thepoppycropis down.Yet theheroin Hekmatyar General Dostum. Thecivilian is notprocessed onPakistani hasbeenspared air Evenwhen territory, population Afghan only opium raidsoverKabul,whichin thepastcausedgreat clients. This inforselling on to mainly Western indiscriminatemostis brought casualties. It is notdue to compassion. control The is in spiteof a Pakistan damageand many drugs programme government most reason for this to local which receives financial andtechnical from substantial likely changein strategy, according backing is earlier lossesofmilitary aircraft andincreasing risks many Western andInterpol, as wellas the UN DrugControl states observers, offlying aircraft. unserviced, (UNDCP). unairworthy Programme Yearsofwarfare haveaffected arestacked Onebasicproblem comesfrom the easeandrelative everyone. Sandbags cheapness toprotect houses from bomb blast orcasualbullets. Wherever with which barons' can setupandoperate smalllaboratohigh 'drugs have had to come to terms withthe riesinthesemi-independent tribal areas.In 1993, for in peoplelive in Kabul,they example, breakdown of services usedto takeforgranted. areaofMohmand one suchheroin they Electricity theAnbar Agency, laboratory withgenerators. was raided and destroyed. But in May 1994residents of Anbar functions, rarely exceptforthoseinstitutions fuelfor orcooking alikeis very dear.Water is appealedto thegovernment to intervene two Imported heating againand destroy now mostly drawn from and uncollected new laboratories started pumpsin thestreets, up. Another problemis thatmany rubbish as wellas rubble from ruined hasaccumulated powerful meninPakistan buildings gainbydrugs smuggling. Though drug fast. Thetelephone is notworking either. Becauseofthese seizuresin Pakistan system reportedly comparequite well withIran, and thepoorstateof nutrition and health in general, Turkey and other MiddleEastern countries wheredrugsare a problems fears abound ofoutbreaks ofcholera andtyphoid Some problem, thefollow-up of prosecuting cases through Pakistan's epidemics. of thecity'swatersourceshave been treated withchlorine to judicialsystem is very nominal. weak,notto sayoften reduce therisk of water-borne diseases. In Pakistan in thedrugs world areleft free many keyfigures Thecity's essential services arekept as if heroin was Often going bya smallnumber to operate smuggling legalised. usinga oftrained as wellas Afghans. In Kabul,as in legalfront as a cover for their narcotics experts, these expatriates interests, flourishing other theInternational Committee ofthe RedCross not-so-respectable cities, businessmen have come to cosy financial Afghan out.Itswell-organised (ICRC) stands with the officers which operation giveshumanitar- arrangements policeandlaw-enforcement ianhelptoscores ofthousands ofvictims ofwar.Kabul's largest effectively interference in their narcotics The prevents trading. are functioning thededication of fortunes of manyof Pakistan'sdollarmillionaires hospitals who have quitewell through teams ofAfghan doctors andnurses. ofvitalmedicines, emerged over thepast decade are said to be based on heroin Supplies andmedical areall provided the bandages numerous members of provincial equipment ICRC, assemby trading. Theyinclude salaries for thestaff. beds are alongwith influential monthly and even ministers. blies, Manyhospital politicians Theyconstitute - though filled with wounded from sides doctors a pro-drugs has cloutin Pakistan. fighters opposing lobbywhich never asktowhich thepatients areaffiliated. Inside Afghanistan, parties local cooperation withdrugs-control Theyaccept in needof treatment. Kabul's doctors and hospitals are programmes anyone cannot be taken for isbyfar the most granted. Opium tokeepstrictly neutral inthis senseless cashcrop.The low risks managing ofopiumcultivation andthe power-struggleprofitable which is steadily what remains of Kabul. ease ofselling itonmakemany farmers totake onthe destroying eager heavy

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AFGHANISTAN

THE WORLD TODAY 231

labour involved. most ofthe ramifications of theheroin not Though Afghanistan produces trade, opium accounttheinternational as converted into few are consumwith Pakistan but also with China's heroin, yetrelatively Afghans Iran, only Turkey, Xinjiang ers of heroin. This may now be changing. In addition to the region, theCentral Asian republics, Russia and on to Western traditional in Badakhshan andother remote north- EuropeandNorth America. this is recognised ina recent Indeed, opium-takers ern more of in cases addicts UNDCP which states: 'These that many regions, Afghan refugee camps paper bluntly linkages imply in Pakistan are beingrevealed. have to be coordinated and impledrugcontrol programmes Pakistan hasitsownalarming with atleast3m mented ifthey theregion areto be effective.'4 drugs problem, throughout addicts a and lucrative domestic market. Heroin providing large andother areeasilyandopenly availablein all Pakistan's Refugees and education drugs forexample, cities.In Peshawar, a fixcan cost under$1 (20 The savage destruction of Kabul has resulted in hundreds of ofrefugees Theeconomics ofheroin aresuchthat are thousands for safer like Jalalabad tothe rupees). margins profit leaving places, farhigher forthe dealers.It has been calculatedthatopium south, where at leastthere is no fighting. But largenumbers of farmers receive valueofheroin sales. homeless often becausethey haveno money just6 percentoftheretail peoplestillremain, Evenso,for individual farmers with an average 50 kilogrammes to pay forplaces in trucks to get away. This has led to some ofopium tosell,theproceeds worth socialconsequences. some unforeseen (at$50 perkilogramme Itshould ofhousehold income. ofKabul,schoolsandmosques $2,500)area very alike, Manypublicbuildings important part becontrasted with salaries lateorunpaid) have been appropriated to house displacedfamilies from de(often ordinary monthly in Afghanistan, orthreatened of government at some$15 (30,000 stroyed areas.Inthe north ofthe alonethere city employees city in thisway. Theyare livingin Estimates Afghanis). by UNDCP of theannualvalue of drugs are 50,000 refugees sheltering crowded for areplacedatsome$1.5m, often three families Pakistan's tooneroom. This conditions, exports economy mostly terribly in theform to 20 percentofPakistan's provides butitalso means ofheroin. Thisamounts that education atall temporary respite, inthecapital, total Other estimates levelshas cometo a standstill with all undamaged legitimate commodity exports. independent school areconsiderably and teachers buildings occupied by refugees, higher. completely Justifications forfarmers opiumusually empha- idle. cultivating sise that colcourses,alreadyundergreatstrain, Highereducation opiumis a traditional cropas well as givingthebest two with the fall of the but also The return. not lapsed years ago, highly regarded Najibullah regime. Poppiesprovide onlyopium of Kabul oil. tend itself was and Farmers under of animal fodder, campus University soap cooking occupation by-products by ofHizb-i-Wahdat, inthefields, which fighters the ShiaMoslem tomakelight ofthefour-month which powerful cycleofwork party a considerable ofthecapital. stretch theentire Some controls Muchofthe is labour-intensive and often involves family. campus has in or infrastructure been looted or wrecked. thegovernare of Though specialised opium provinces Afghanistan highly a newVice-Chancellor The south- ment for KabulUniversity, Thisspecialisation is increasing. that hashish appointed production. is as far as its commitment towards districts for has some eastern of goes rebuilding higher province Nangarhar, example, The Vice-Chancellor, Professor as much as 80 oreven education. remains with overtopoppies, almost Hassanyar, entirely given about ofstarting the chances 90 percentof arablelandutilised. blithely optimistic upagaininrented somewhere in even in view full fields the Kabul, though manyof thebestalongside premises stretching Ironically, poppy 1 in teachers left after and more the lastvery difficult the often stand the Jalalabad 978, posters qualified adjoining anti-drug highway He I visited the United States and visited of its When as the UNDCP years. recently reported receiving propaganda. part putup by of backingby three American themain welcomepromises universities thepoppyfields, in April1994 and toured Jalalabad to faculties of Kabul University before and proudly whichhad been linked quitebrazenly by thesmallfarmers pointstressed 1978. was that their opium paysvery crops poppy displaying flourishing new miniature-scale universities are goingforskewed view advanced the wellas a cashcrop. Onefarmer Meanwhile, actually is peace and some semtownswherethere Freedom wardin provincial from theCommunists. that 'nowwe havewonfreedom In Herat,forexample,help has been blance of government. meanswe can growopiumwithout anyrestriction.' from fromBochumUniversity. Generous 'If a in vacuum. a Yet poppiesare never cultivated political Germany, pledged German aid for education he and of then wants tostopthegrowing poppies, commander Afghandevelopment, higher always to in continued the Soviet invasion December 1979. tobeborne out training ofUNDCP. Thisseems Andrew can',claims up Pryce centres are Mazar-i-Sharif andJalalabad. in Afghanistan, and it also Other of farming elsewhere mini-university by patterns from the in cultivation could oneslender 50,000refugees Apart occupying public buildings eventually poppy hopethat provides Kabulishavemanaged totake and stick.In future, Kabul,anestimated of carrot be reducedby a combination 300,000more withtheir relatives elsewhere in thecity.According to toa strict banonopium shelter linked incentives directly maybe offered, inKabul,'they Stocker oftheICRC delegation areperhaps forbuilding Peter in theform of foreign-funded cultivation, projects butif theblockadecontinues, of starvation, As yet, notin danger the roadsand maintaining schools,or even forde-mining. risks unbearable'. Breadis thestaple foodfor of cropsubstitution. situation there is no policybeingfollowed becoming though, considerations is thepriceof ofthedrug mostKabulis.One oftheessential theharmful Efforts ateducating aspects peopleabout whichhas been rising since 1 January, whenthe it is an uphill flour, that willbe intensified, butthefactremains trade rapidly - perhaps latest round offighting Foodhasbecome a weapon inthe theobviouscash benefits, from erupted. many struggle. Apart - regard with Hizb-i-Islami flour or on bothsides of thefrontier mostfarmers cannabis, struggle, fighters cynically preventing in areas of other Kabulis the which has to a as or its derivatives living supplies reaching capital crop grow legitimate opium sinceAprila steady itscontrol. flowof flour outside immoral aboutit. However, nothing sent out from Pakistan in has madea is food trade narcotics the As withAfghan brought convoys by intimately politics, out the around divided to reduce or realistic connected withPakistan. difference, prices levelling significant city. Any attempts of the UN, but takeintofull It is paid forby theWorldFood Programme must of Afghanistan eliminate theopiateindustry

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232 THE WORLD TODAY

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On behalfof theUN it can be arguedthatits specialised NGOs. Heavy coordinated anddistributed bytheICRC andother ofthefood, much for arealready across sacksofflour 90 are shifted providing responsible agencies weighing kilogrammes being emerwith the to needed other tents and thecity onsimple often four wooden refugee cope supplies by push-carts, accompanied of theUN High ormore for whom thefoodwillbe essential gencyand civilianneeds in Kabul, and staff members ofa family forRefugees(UNHCR) have helpedwiththe civil servants, Commissioner forthe comingmonths. They includeformer from Pakistan one million of morethan whocurrently have return and policemen, technicians schoolteachers, refugees Afghan is is not that this The fact in I Iran recent of those saw and neither nor Some hardly enough years. jobs monthly salarycheques. for aid of reconstruction Earlier of the UN. in or the fault traders flour a recent visit have become projections during sugar. petty under the in 1988-90 for UNHCR made or often of the civilian the victims cross-fire, by population Afghanistan, Frequently worth of Sadruddin mustalso satisfy the greed of the armedfighters Agha Khan, were large-scale, manning direction of dollars of millions hundreds the Bribes to whenever around Now, by though, pledges annually. city. pass checkpoints theygo abounds. and apathy states arehardto find, mostcivilians big donor eventhough thecheckpoints areroutine, through arepoverty-stricken. An agreement in March1993temporarily therocket Options for Afghanistan stopped natural come aboutthrough inreturn for attacks onKabulbyforces ofHizb-i-Islami, causes,likeearthformally Some tragedies manis almost The floods. or in the as Prime Minister Gulbuddin entirely Afghan tragedy 'gov- quakes accepting Hekmatyar miscalculations and mistakes of of a series the result at the time: As William ernment'. wrote made, Maley chillingly 4 ofAfghaniworld's callousorcynical is thattheway to The messagesentby thesettlement neglect bythe compounded inFebruary back Soviet of the last since the withdrawal stan is tokillenough Prime Minister becomeAfghan Kabulis; troops 1989. to haunt and it is a messagewhichmayreturn Afghan The war whichbeganback in 1979 is now so old thatthe in future years.'5 politics seem SomaliaorRwanda ofBosnia, troubles andtragedies fresher in this Thereis considerable truth but, regrettably, judgment warand more relevant much for great to many the otherpartiesand leaders are also responsible Afghan pressing. people for nor a lords are not in this vicious and civilian deaths and anyprinciples, fightingjihad (holywar), suffering many injuries Persian As the over whoistohavepower. Thefact nopity is being shown civilwar. remains that proverb says: simply byanyside but We canjudgethelack intoone kingdom.' do notfit forthe wretched civiliansin this war of attrition. Naturally 'Two kings who in this warfare is muchbitterness there Hekmatyar, byGulbuddin scruples enough, amongordinary peopleat the ofmoral on Kabul attacks his rocket for one-and-a-half treatment are Even from the various armed by justified years they receiving groups. traitor' General of 'the Communist thatthetroops those whoinitially welcomed the downfall ofthe among Najibullah demanding is allied inApril1992, SinceJanuary, should leavethecity. thesheer lawlessness ofthegunmen hasled Dostum Hekmatyar regime It is onlypower-hungry leaders andambito mass-alienation and an angerwhichis made veryplain to to thesameDostum. civilwar.For visitors. tiouslocal warlords whocan benefit bycontinued Women'ssafety in thesedangerous vilis almost a the Russians attacked times helpedbytheir decade, ruthlessly Afghan hair with scarves and much of the more than one modest i.e.,respect- lages, destroying covering up killing wearing country, inlinewith able- dress conservative Islamicstandards. and deliberately out Butsuch million men,womenand children driving is thestate oflawlessness in Kabul andKandahar that ofordinary Nowitis the rival there can millions peopleas refugees. Afghan be nofirm ofpersonal The ordinary leaders themselves whoarecompleting the guarantees safety. peopleof party cycleofdestrucKabul desperately wantpeace. Yet manypeople therehave tionin Kabul. become demoralised andappear tofeelthat Even if it is now Afghans havebeen who are fighting between themdeeply they abandoned oftheworld. It is difficult to see anyend selves,with no direct involvement offoreign itis foreign forces, bytherest tothis for inAfghanistan without active interven- weapons,bombs,minesand military aircraft in manufactured struggle power tionand continuing commitment whichare causingthedestruction commu- foreign countries insideAfby theinternational The Cold Warmaybe dead,butthelegacyof supernity. ghanistan. An Afghan-originated liveson in unfortunate The counpeace plan, launchedby a distin- powerrivalries Afghanistan. in the guerrilla immediate but alsoIran and war, Maulvi Jalaluddin try's guishedcommander Pakistan, neighbours (especially at thebeginning ofMay,calling on all thethree Central Asianrepublics) couldplayfarmore construcHaqqani,was announced thewarring to stopfighting andgiveup their are.Saudi Arabiastillremains as parties powerto a tiverolesthan they important nominated interim the plan was a major contributor ofmoney the channelled via government. Unfortunately fuelling fighting, also tooaltruistic, andhadlittle stillborn, inducement to private Saudi donors forthemostpart. perhaps offer tosomeofthe Gulbuddin or from thedispersed are angry keyplayers, notably Hekmatyar ManyAfghans intelligentsia General Dostum. Butonepoint at what see as thefailure oftheinternational urged byMaulviHaqqaniis worth andindespair they careful consideration. He emphasised theneedtofind for community overAfghanistan. One ofthese is Professor A. Rasul funding rather thanforce them to Amin, former headofthepolitical sciencedepartment peace,and to paypeoplenotto fight, ofKabul on continuing warfare on behalf ofrivalleaders. It is an University and Director of theWriters' depend Unionof FreeAfghaniversion of thepeace movement.6 basedinPeshawar. Professor Amin Afghan that itwasthe stan, complains the belated efforts oftheUN's peacemission under UnitedStatesand otherWestern countries Certainly whicharmedthe theformer Minister of Tunisia,MahmoudMesteri, is present warlords in Afghanistan, and that'the Russiansand Foreign better than ForsomeAfghan critics this which Westerners to clean the mess nothing. mission, created in war-torn ought up they in 1994,seemslikean example ofUN 'tokenism', as Afghanistan'. It is,maintains beganearly their moral at Amin, responsibility wellas beinghalf-hearted andalmost doomed. Yet least to the work harder for instead of shoulcertainly peace there, shrugging factremains thatthe UN mustrepresent whatslenderhopes dersand saying it is an internal fortheAfghans themquarrel on and a settlement in selves to resolve.7 persist reaching peace Afghanistan.

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HUNGARY

THE WORLD TODAY 233

- up 33 percenton 1993-94for theUnitedNationsseemedto have totally ($16m)for thecurrent For two years, aid year - contrasts to itsowndevices, abandoned after Administration Afghanistan notably failing fromthe Overseas Development a political with between settlement linked to generously that oftheUnited 1988and 1992toachieve which so well States, provided the withdrawal and a of The war Soviet recent for the Soviet In forces. the US financial change regime. military guerrilla against year modest has raised initiative oftheUN, albeit aid for was for a total of$40m, enough, hopesthat 1992-93,American Afghanistan more infuture. the UNmay become involved What IanMacWilliam for UN agencies andfor humanitarian of helpandreconstruction, in March1994is justas true at theendof theyear: wrote whch$10m was direct bilateral aid. In 1993-94 American aid ofa neutral The formation under theaegisof declinedto some $6m, and in the current government yearit has further to an want. declined theUN is whatmosteducated a few for However, level, insignificant providing Afghans scholarships the UN has since the adventof the new worldorder, Afghans. is way down the British theBritish aid, provided through Afghanistan adjustedits priorities. charity Afghanaid, in is for rural areas six and mainly provinces, agenda.'8 restoring irrigation and the dominance of the United varieties of wheat. orchards, growing distributing improved Unfortunately, extraordinary is common between NGOs. In Kabul,Afghanaid willnothelpthis tohappen. There is Cooperation inUN policy-making is States in also the work of CARE the fate of International in of concern about no Afghanistan supporting helping absolutely sign andproviding a water andsanitation UN policy Thebest while circles. may refugees programme, hopefor galvanising Washington in Jalalabad it funds the Austrian Relief the Committee's work in andlobbying from Western new be concerted Europe, by pressure as permanent camps. andbyBritain andFrance, Unionstates European oftheAfghan therealities sceneclearly in particular. of theSecurity members Council, Recognising requires a longview.Amongother thismeansnotsimply for as a taking things, working Afghanistan specialists Manyoftheforeign theabsolute ofwarlords torule, nor ofPresident Western wholeare from France,Switzerland, recognising right Europe,notably s Jamiat-i-Islami toclaimtobe a government where no Sweden, Rabbani' Britain, Italy,Belgium,the Netherlands, Germany, Ifsomefragile exists. offederal is tobe and government degree unity specialists Amongthem,British Norwayand Denmark. - for restored inAfghanistan, itwillrequire a longoverdue are activein manyhumanitarian volunteers acceptance organisations between themselves and and training forAf- of theneed forcompromise thevaluedde-mining Afghans operations example, of local autonomies. oftheexistence of theHalo recognition outby British ex-army experts ghanteamscarried - needstobe funded. International aidfor Peace-just likewar Trust. should not be directed to reconstruction and will in count the task of which is another only specific projects country key Japan which can be but be to for the most has monitored, carefully large enough goals funding generous provided rebuilding. Japan for men so as not to force create alternative and could take in for Pakistan relief Afghan employment many years Afghan refugee forrivalwarlords andparties, or to becomehired inthecoming them initiatives inUN andother more active a much gunmen part of to increase the world's cash of to much like is Western decade.Ironically, crops poppies supplies grow Japan, doing Europe, of 10m heroin. better thanthe UnitedStates.Britain'scontribution NOTES
1. Negotiation BarneyRubin,'Action MemorandumAfghanistan',International NetworkConsultation,CarterCenterof Emory University, Atlanta,Georgia, January1992. Ibid. Extractsfrom a report by RaymondWhitaker,'A citythatmustdie alone', The Independent,25 March 1994. of Pakistan', UNDCP, Islamabad, Quoted fromThe Illicit Opiate Industry February1994, p. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. oftheAfghanState', inAfghanistan William Maley, 'The Reconstitution Info, Neuchtel,Switzerland,April 1993. withthewriter, William Reeve and Edward Gorman in Kabul, In an interview beforehis formallaunch of theplan. shortly ' A. Rasul Amin,WritersUnionofF reeAfghanistan ,IncidentalIssue, Peshawar, July 1994. Ian MacWilliam, 'Unholy Warriors', The Guardian Weekend, London, 12 March 1994.

2. 3. 4.

Hungary:disenchantmentaftertransition
RudolfAndorka
based ofthe Communist the Nooneforesaw system, collapse rapid in and Central and economic on central rule, planning one-party most astute one of the Garton Eastern Ash,1 Europe.Timothy inthe1980s, hadpredicted inthis ofthe observers region changes and in which somecountries a slowdecayoftheSovietempire wouldbe able to achievetheir somesocialgroups emancipation inthecontext ofa general social andgradually economic, slowly 'Ottomanisation' rather than 'Finlandiandpolitical decline, i.e., social scientist, Elemer sation'.In 1989 an eminent Hungarian the different book scenarios wrote a Hankiss, summarising proaboutthefuture of Eastern Europe.2 jected in worldliterature basedonauthoriThesescenarios variously: continuity predicted

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