From

m: Dustin Ingalls,
I
Asssistant Direector
To: Interested
I
parties
Subjject: Kasich
h, Mandel in real dan
nger
Datee: 11/12/201
13
In head-to-head matchups
m
wiith their likelly opponentss next fall, bboth Gov. Johhn Kasich,
who narrowly
n
ou
usted Ted Strrickland in 2010, and Treeausrer Joshh Mandel, whho lost a bidd
for U.S.
U Senate so
oundly last fall,
f are bareely above 40% of the votte against litttle-known
Demo
ocratic oppo
onents. In faact, Mandel already
a
trailss state Rep. C
Connie Pillich, and
Kasicch can only tie
t Cuyahoga County Ex
xecutive Ed F
FitzGerald.
Kasicch’s job apprroval numbeers are pretty
y weak. 37%
% approve annd 42% disappprove of hiis
job performance, similar to th
he 42-47 sprread we founnd in Augustt. Only seveen of the 29
goverrnors runnin
ng for re-elecction next yeear are in woorse shape, pputting him inn the top
third in terms of vulnerability
v
y. Six of tho
ose seven bellow Kasich in their voteers’ eyes are
Repu
ublicans.
Hurtiing Kasich most
m is that his
h own basee is not stronngly behind hhim. Only 555% of
Repu
ublicans apprrove, and 26% disapprov
ve of the wo rk he is doinng. Normallly,
incum
mbents in solid shape forr re-election, especially tthose who w
want to fend off primary
challeenges, shoulld have approvals in the 75-80% rannge with theirr own partisans, if not
betterr. Perhaps th
hat is why Kasich
K
has drrawn not onlly a strong D
Democratic cchallenger
but allso a Libertaarian opponeent.
That Libertarian, Charlie Earrl, draws 6% of the vote,, including 11% of indeppendents,
holdiing Kasich to
o a 41% tie with
w FitzGerrald. FitzGeerald unites hhis party (wiith 72% of
their support) mo
ore than Kasiich does his (68%).
ndel by four points, 47-4
43. She earnns more of thhe GOP vote, at 18%,
Pillicch leads Man
than Mandel
M
doess of Democrrats (12%), part
p of the reeason she holds her partyy together
(85%
%) considerab
bly more thaan Mandel do
oes his (72%
%). Pillich haas a 12-poinnt lead with
women (50-38), helping
h
to co
ounteract Maandel’s slighht lead with m
men (48-45)).
PPP surveyed
s
595 Ohio voters from
f
Novemb
ber 5th to 6th. The margin oof error is +/--4.0%. This
poll was
w sponsored
d by the Ohio Democratic Party.

Public Policy Pollin
ng
2912 Highwoods Blvd.
B
Raleiigh, NC 27604
4

Pho
one: 888 621-6988
Web
b: www.public
cpolicypolling .com
Ema
ail: informatio
on@publicpoliicypolling.com
m

Ohio Survey Results
Q1

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich's job performance?

Q5

Approve ..................37% Not sure ..................21%

Democrat ........................................................ 38%

Disapprove..............42%

Q2

If the election for Governor were today, would
you vote for Republican John Kasich,
Democrat Ed FitzGerald, or Libertarian Charlie
Earl?

Republican...................................................... 36%
Independent/Other .......................................... 25%

Q6

John Kasich .................................................... 41%

African-American ............................................ 12%

Charlie Earl ..................................................... 6%

Q3

If the election for State Treasurer were today,
would you vote for Republican Josh Mandel or
Democrat Connie Pillich?
Josh Mandel ................................................... 43%
Connie Pillich .................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q4

If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 82%

Ed FitzGerald.................................................. 41%

Not sure .......................................................... 13%

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.

Other............................................................... 6%

Q7

If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 18%
46 to 65........................................................... 47%
Older than 65 .................................................. 23%

Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%

November 5-6, 2013
Survey of 595 Ohio voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender

Gender
Base Wom an

Base Wom an

Man
Kasich/FitzGerald/Earl

Kasich Approval
Approve 37%

35%

39%

Disapprove 42%

41%

43%

Not sure 21%

24%

17%

John Kasich 41%

37%

44%

Ed FitzGerald 41%

42%

39%

6%

6%

6%

Not sure 13%

14%

11%

Charlie Earl

Party

Gender
Base Wom an

Man

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Man
Kasich Approval

Mandel/Pillich

Approve 37%

16%

55%

43%

Josh Mandel 43%

38%

48%

Disapprove 42%

59%

26%

39%

Connie Pillich 47%

50%

45%

Not sure 21%

25%

19%

18%

Not sure 10%

12%

7%

Party

Party

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Kasich/FitzGerald/Earl

Mandel/Pillich

John Kasich 41%

15%

68%

41%

Ed FitzGerald 41%

72%

14%

32%

6%

4%

5%

11%

Not sure 13%

10%

14%

15%

Charlie Earl

November 5-6, 2013
survey of 595 Ohio voters

Josh Mandel 43%

12%

72%

48%

Connie Pillich 47%

85%

18%

33%

Not sure 10%

4%

10%

19%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Race

Race

AfricanBase White Am erican Other
Kasich/FitzGerald/Earl

Kasich Approval
Approve 37%

39%

17%

55%

Disapprove 42%

42%

49%

30%

Not sure 21%

19%

34%

16%

AfricanBase White Am erican Other

John Kasich 41%

44%

15%

51%

Ed FitzGerald 41%

37%

69%

31%

6%

6%

4%

5%

Not sure 13%

13%

12%

13%

Charlie Earl

Age

Race
AfricanBase White Am erican Other

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Kasich Approval

Mandel/Pillich
Josh Mandel 43%

46%

18%

44%

Approve 37%

26%

33%

38%

44%

Connie Pillich 47%

43%

79%

39%

Disapprove 42%

51%

48%

41%

35%

Not sure 10%

10%

2%

17%

Not sure 21%

23%

20%

21%

21%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Kasich/FitzGerald/Earl
37%

40%

39%

46%

Ed FitzGerald 41%

40%

38%

43%

39%

6%

6%

10%

5%

5%

Not sure 13%

17%

13%

13%

11%

November 5-6, 2013
survey of 595 Ohio voters

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Mandel/Pillich

John Kasich 41%

Charlie Earl

Base

Josh Mandel 43%

37%

53%

42%

41%

Connie Pillich 47%

57%

38%

49%

48%

Not sure 10%

6%

10%

10%

11%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

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