Running head: TALENT IDENTIFICATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN SPORT

Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology & Life Sciences, 2005, 9 (1), 61 88.

Unnatural Selection: Talent Identification and Development in Sport Angela Abbott1, Chris Button2, Gert-Jan Pepping1, and Dave Collins1

1. Scottish Centre for Physical Education, Sport and Leisure Studies, University of Edinburgh, UK 2. School of Physical Education, University of Otago, New Zealand

Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Angela Abbott, who is at the Scottish Centre for Physical Education, Sport and Leisure Studies, Moray House Institute of Education, Faculty of Education, the University of Edinburgh, St Leonards Land, Holyrood Rd., Edinburgh, UK, EH8 8AQ. Phone 00-44-131-651-6590. Fax 00-44-131-6516521. Email: angela_abbott@education.ed.ac.uk. Running head: TALENT IDENTIFICATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN SPORT

2 Abstract The early identification of talented individuals is considered increasingly important across many performance domains. Current talent identification (TI) schemes in sport typically select on the basis of discrete, unidimensional measures at unstable periods in the athletes development. In this article, the concept of talent is revised as a complex, dynamical system in which future behaviors emerge from an interaction of key performance determinants such as psychological behaviors, motor abilities, and physical characteristics. Key nonlinear dynamics concepts are related to TI approaches such as sensitivity to initial conditions, transitions and exponential behavioral distributions. It is concluded that many TI models place an overemphasis on early identification rather than the development of potentially talented performers. A generic model of talent identification and development that addresses these issues and provides direction for future research is proposed.

3 Talent identification (TI) has undoubtedly become big business. Across a range of different fields including sport, art, business and education, researchers are continually attempting to find effective methods to identify the best performers for the future. These fields are united in many societies around the world by high levels of competition to achieve success against limited financial resources. If an organization (e.g., a business or a National Governing Body) is to stay ahead of the game, recruiting and developing high-fliers before they are snatched up by other competitors is extremely important. For example, many successful companies employ a range of different psychometric and behavioral profiling instruments, such as IQ tests for intelligence, when recruiting or promoting personnel (Guion, 1998). The rationale for using such procedures is presumably that future talent can be predicted on the basis of outstanding performance in key transferable skills. Therefore, the implementation of an effective TI system seems highly appealing for a wide range of organizations and performance domains. In this article, we focus on TI procedures in sport and show that finding the most effective TI method is a complex problem. We argue that many current TI models around the world are underpinned by an inappropriate conception of talent and are therefore unlikely to be as effective as they could be (see also Abbott & Collins, 2002; add new JSS reference). The problem is often manifested in a reliance on discrete, genetically driven, performance measures that place a large emphasis on the (unnatural) selection of talented individuals rather than the development and monitoring of potential. Using ideas borrowed from the sciences of complexity and nonlinear dynamical systems, we will describe some fundamental principles that have implications, not only for TI in sport, but to a whole range of performance domains, such as business and the arts (Gould, 2002; Loehr & Schwartz, 2001; Lubinski & Benbow, 2000; Simonton, 1999). Such concepts provide a more accurate description of the important factors influencing talent and therefore a better ability to predict

4 future star performers? Finally, a theoretically driven, multidisciplinary model of TI and development will be described which is currently being piloted in Scotland. Talent Identification: A Complex Problem The rising importance of TI in sport is reflected by the glut of related articles in the current coaching and sport science literature (e.g., a special edition of the Journal of Sports Sciences was devoted to TI topics, see volume 18, issue 9, 2000; Durand-Bush & Salmela, 2001). TI initiatives in sport have typically looked to identify the talented at as early an age as possible in order to provide the 10 years of developmental opportunities that research has suggested is required to excel (Ericsson, Krampe, & Tesch-Romer, 1993; Starkes, 2000). To enable this early identification of talent, many TI processes measure and select young athletes based on genetically driven performance determinants (e.g., height for basketball). As an example, successful sporting nations such as Australia (Talent Search initiative, Hoare, 1998), Germany and the Soviet Union select talented performers on the basis of physical and performance measures, which are believed to be correlated with excellence in sport. However, a recent review of traditional TI processes in sport and their theoretical underpinning (Abbott & Collins, 2002) highlighted that potentially talented athletes are often overlooked due to an inappropriate conceptualization of talent. At least five main problems arise from identifying and eliminating potential athletes on physical and performance measures: (a) It is difficult, if not impossible, to predict the mature value of a genetically driven variable due to non-linear processes of development (Abbott & Collins, 2002; Aitken & Jenkins, 1998; Simmons & Paull, 2001), (b) Performance is constrained by a range of factors and not all of these are genetically driven (e.g., Simonton, 1999, 2001),

5 (c) The focus has been on discrete performance measures that only reveal limited information about a persons adaptability and development potential (Morris, 2000), (d) Selection might be based upon unstable characteristics during important transitional periods in the athletes career (Davids, Lees & Burwitz, 2000; Helsen, Hodges, van Winckel & Starkes, 2000), (e) As TI processes should be focused on the future performance capacity of individuals, not enough emphasis is given to factors that underpin successful development towards ones potential (Kunst & Florescu, 1971; Simonton, 1999). As we shall describe in the following sections, the selection of individuals on the basis of physical or performance characteristics such as strength or possession of a certain technique, is based upon a microscopic (small-scale) description of talent. In fact, our understanding of skilled motor performance has dramatically changed due to the recent fusion of sport science with concepts from the dynamical systems perspective and chaos theory (Davids, Button & Bennett, 1999, 2004). The application of dynamical systems theory to a diverse range of complex systems (such as global weather patterns, financial stock exchanges and neural functioning in the brain) provides new methods through which complex interactions and seemingly unpredictable patterns can be modeled at a macroscopic level (Freeman, 1999; Kelso, 1995; Stewart, 1995; Wolfram, 2002). A macroscopic approach can help us to understand that talented performers develop a range of different behavioral qualities in a nonlinear fashion in order to eventually produce consistently effective movement patterns. Accordingly, recognition of how such factors evolve is necessary to aid predictions concerning long-term behavioral patterns of a talented individual. Indeed, TI processes that are based upon only the summation of a few physical variables should be considered in neo-darwinian terms as unnatural selection!

6 Predicting the Mature Value of a Genetically Driven Variable The mature value of a genetically driven variable cannot necessarily be predicted from an immature value1. For example, height is often considered to be advantageous to performance in a range of sports (e.g., high-jump, volleyball; however, see the later Case Study). Although height is predominantly genetically determined, recent research conducted by Abbott and Collins (2002) highlighted large instability within cohorts of both boys and girls from age 11 to 12 (see Figure 1), which coincidentally is at the age that many TI processes are conducted. Figure 1 exemplifies the fact that children typically experience several sudden maturational changes as they progress through puberty. Therefore if, for example, height or limb length were major determinants within a particular sport (and unfortunately little or no research underpins the selection of such key performance determinants), the most physically talented could not be identified until post puberty when values become largely stable within individuals. The delay of TI processes until post puberty (16+ years) would undoubtedly be resisted as it opposes the current drive to identify the best children early in order to optimally support their development. However, identifying talented and eliminating non-talented adolescents on unstable performance determinants is tantamount to identifying precocious talent based purely on performance, which research has shown to be significantly influenced by the physical maturity of the child (Abbott & Collins, 2002, Blanskby, Bloomfield, Ponchard, & Ackland, 1990).

****Figure 1 near here****

The important point to make is that long-term predictions cannot be made solely on the basis of a few physical characteristics due to their unstable and nonlinear development over time. As the data in Figure 1 demonstrates, the height of children from the ages of 11-12

7 can vary considerably within a small period of time and therefore such variables are unreliable determinants of future values. Inter-individual variance is also influenced by a range of important environmental characteristics such as diet and exercise levels (Parizkova, 1977; Dollman, Olds, Norton & Stuart, 1999). Hence an awareness of the dynamic, complex nature of development suggests that such long-term predictions are only, at best, a probabilistic estimate concerning how an athletes physique will change. The issue concerning whether it is possible to predict long-term system behavior (such as the maturational trends of an athlete) given information about current variables, has intrigued dynamical systems theorists for some time. For example, Kauffman (1995) points out that, any small change in a chaotic system can, and typically does, have large and amplifying effects. Thus this sensitivity implies that the detailed initial conditionwould have to be known to infinite precision to predict the result (p. 17). Whilst this message suggests a rather bleak outlook for those wishing to predict future characteristics or behaviors of an athlete, i.e., that accurate long-term predictions are impossible, an important distinction must be made. Human performers possess a critical quality (to a greater extent than other chaotic systems) in their ability to display intentional, goal-directed behavior. Humans can be seen as deterministic organisms, in that they have the capacity to strongly influence their own future through decision-making processes based on their goals and desires (Kugler, Shaw, Vincente, & Kinsella-Shaw, 1990). Therefore, individuals with sufficient drive and determination are more likely to overcome barriers and physical shortcomings in order to be successful in the future than those who do not possess such qualities. To illustrate this concept, consider one of many possible anecdotal examples from sport. Pietro Mennea held the 200m-world record for 17 years from 1979 to 1996. However, as a youth he was given little hope of athletic achievement since it was believed that he did not have the required physique. In a recent interview Pietro Mennea stated, When I took up

8 athletics almost all the coaches doubted that I could ever achieve any significant results. I always used that as a stimulus to prove them wrong and become a success. And I did. (Birri, 2000). Apparently, dedication, application, and technique development were the key factors in his outstanding success. It is well known that among many athletes, physical shortcomings in one area may also be compensated for by strengths in other areas. Therefore, through unique combinations of physical, mental and behavioral characteristics, talented athletes can exploit their strengths to achieve their goals. In summary, whilst certain physical characteristics may be strongly related to high-level performance in sport, these characteristics can not be used to identify future talent due to their unstable, nonlinear development and the ability of athletes to compensate for physical disadvantages in a variety of ways. Performance is Constrained by a Range of Variables and Not All of These are Genetically Driven The fundamental concept of self-organization suggests that the behavior of a complex system is assembled in an emergent fashion depending on the situational constraints that surround it (Kelso, 1995; Muchisky, Gershkoff-Cole, Cole, & Thelen, 1996). It is this characteristic that allows biological organisms to adapt their behavior to suit their environment. Similarly, the various constraints that contribute to an athletes behavior interact in a nested, discontinuous fashion meaning that performance cannot be understood (or predicted) when each are considered in isolation. Despite this multicausal description of athletic performance, current TI processes are mainly unidimensional in nature and focus on physical factors that are considered to be primarily under genetic control (Abbott, Collins, Martindale & Sowerby, 2002; Simonton, 1999, 2001). The limitation of TI models, where no consideration is given to many key performance determinants due to their developmental, and therefore nonpredictable, nature, is apparent. Therefore, there is a need to re-conceptualize talent as a

9 multi-dimensional construct and acknowledge that many of the key performance determinants in sport can be developed with the appropriate training opportunities. Guion (1998) recognized this need in relation to selection procedures for business, by suggesting that performance is often complex, attributable to multiple causes of the workers; it is likely that more than one kind of ability must be measured if the criterion is to be predicted in all of its complexity. (pg.15). In a recent paper, Simonton (1999) proposed a mathematical equation to model the potential components that contribute to a dynamic concept of talent in a multiplicative fashion. Whilst Simontons (1999) model was intended to characterize talent development across a range of performance domains (e.g., science, sport and the arts) it begins to address some of the concerns we are raising with unidimensional and genetically driven variables dominating many current TI models. Simonton (1999) argued that a range of weighted components must be considered within each talent domain, such as genetically driven traits as well as environmentally-influenced, developmental factors. Consequently the equation is not comprised of static, independent performance-based measures but rather, of factors that interact and change as a function of time thereby contributing to a range of possible developmental trajectories (see Equation 1 below).
k

Pi(t)* =

Cij (t)Wj
j=1

(1)

Where Pi(t) is potential talent at time t for the ith individual, Cij is the individuals score on component j (i = 1, 2, 3, N) and wj is the weight given to the jth component. The symbol indicates that each contributing component (or performance determinant) is multiplied together reflecting the exponential and nonlinear nature that a change in each variable can have on predicted talent (from Simonton, 1999: p.443). At this time such a

10 model would need considerable development before it can be used for simulations of TI in sport (e.g., to select key talent determinants and the individual exponents to be attached to each).In fact the use of nonlinear mathematical modeling to depict probabilistic distributions of human behavior has proved successful in a wide range of applications, including population growth (May, 1974), neural assemblies (Meyer-Lindenberg et al., 2002), and even in plotting the behavioral patterns of criminals (Walters, 2002). Perhaps the richest body of evidence can be found in the motor development literature (for a review see Thelen & Smith, 1994). For example, Wimmers, Savelsbergh, Beek and Hopkins (2001) have produced data from a longitudinal study indicating the discontinuous jump in infant behavior from reaching without grasping being predominant to a state in which reaching with grasping is predominant. This behavioral characteristic, known in dynamical terms as a bifurcation, is common in dynamical systems which have many tunable parameters (see Newell, Lui-Kress & Meyer, 2001) and hence could evolve along several different potential trajectories. Simontons (1999) model predicts that exceptional behaviour could develop in an exponential fashion as a function of many, more specific parameters in a similar fashion to many other nonlinear dynamical events (such as the escalation of a serial offenders crime rate). In sport, these parameters are likely to include anthropometric variables (such as height and musclefiber ratio), psychological behaviors (such as commitment and self-evaluation) and also perceptual-motor characteristics (such as agility and hand-eye coordination). It is interesting to note that several of these variables possess qualities that are transferable across situations and, possibly, different sports. Longitudinal research plotting the development of a group of talented athletes is now necessary to examine the nonlinear distribution characteristics that emerge over time as predicted within Simontons (1999) approach. The argument concerning the extent to which genetic information can determine future performance has raged for some time (see an interesting discussion on the nature-

11 nurture debate: SportScience web-based journal, 2001). As geneticists now agree, the transmission of genetic information between generations always contains some errors (e.g., Jones, 1999) and therefore genes cannot work in a totally deterministic fashion. In essence, the presence of the ideal genetic material does not necessarily represent a blueprint for success in sport (which may be a shame for Andre Agassi and Steffi Grafs children!). Furthermore, as Simontons (1999) model indicates, talented performance results from the interaction of genetic factors and a conducive practice environment rather than simply on the basis of one of these factors (see also Helsen et al., 2000). To summarize, current TI processes that typically limit themselves to testing individuals on unidimensional, genetically driven factors are simplistic and therefore likely to eliminate many potentially talented individuals.

Discrete Performance Characteristics are Poor Predictor of Talent As well as basing selection on physique, TI initiatives in sports have also based the identification of the talented on a range of discrete outcome based variables thought to underpin success (Davids, Lees & Burwitz, 2000). For example, the Australian Talent Search program, in identifying the talented in rowing, considers the performance of children on the basketball throw, sprint and shuttle run tasks. Such snap-shot performance variables however fail to capture the finely-tuned, continuous co-ordination processes that elite athletes exploit to satisfy task demands. As an example, a photograph of an elite batter in baseball may not set him apart from a lesser player, whereas detailed analysis of digital video is much more likely to reveal why he is so successful. The point to be made here is that more sensitive measures of ability (such as phase-plane plots and expectancy charts) are needed to provide a better understanding of the processes underpinning skilful performance (Button, Davids & Schllhorn, 2003; Guion, 1998). Another important quality that is often ignored by discrete

12 measures is the ability of an athlete to adapt performance to suit different situations and environments. In fact, the subtle adaptation (or transfer) of coordination patterns is arguably what enables elite sports people such as Tiger Woods (golf) and David Beckham (soccer) to maintain very high levels of performance consistency over the course of several playing seasons. Whilst discrete performance variables may be helpful in signposting potential athletes during development, we should not be fooled into believing that they can distinguish future performers. The study of complex systems at a microscopic level reveals seemingly random variation amongst system parts (e.g., performance characteristics of a javelin thrower during a practice session). These random variations in behavior may not be under the athletes direct control but rather are the result of the different task, environmental and organismic constraints that interact in that situation (Newell, 1996). Instead, the long-term behavior of complex systems is better understood by pattern formation at a macroscopic level of analysis (e.g., seasonal variations in the javelin throwers performance; Schllhorn, & Bauer, 1998). Consequently, the key problem is not so much in identifying the best performer at any one time but instead identifying over time which factors may be limiting talent development. If an individual does not currently display a desired behavior, this may be because an important factor (e.g., self-confidence) is absent or because it will not develop or emerge until later. Applying Dynamical Systems concepts within the motor development literature, Thelen (1995) highlights how certain behaviors wait in the wings and only emerge when the supporting subsystems and processes are ready. The lack of a characteristic, such as mental focus, which may take several years to fully develop (Gould, Dieffenbach & Moffett, 2002) may hinder the identification of young and otherwise very talented athletes. Consequently, the comparative delay of one component may act as a rate limiter, preventing the cooperative self-organization of the other components, likewise a small retuning of one

13 component can often lead to an unexpected, nonlinear change in development. Due to this epigenetic process, the likelihood of identifying a talented athlete of the future increases as a function of time. In other words, the number (and accuracy) of potentially talented individuals identified will increase with the age of the athlete. Clearly therefore, the earlier a TI procedure is employed, the more potentially talented individuals will be eliminated. Further, not only may the composition of a given talent change as a person ages, but the optimal talent domain may change as well (Simonton, 1999, p.445). Morris (2000) pointed out that many cross-sectional studies identifying performance related characteristics exist in sport but that they are largely descriptive, and consequently argued for more longitudinal research. Hence, the dynamic evolution of talent seems to suggest that the focus of TI models in sport and probably other performance domains should shift from early identification towards developmental aspects. Case Study: Comparing Traditional and Dynamic TI approaches To illustrate some of the TI issues that have been discussed so far, we can consider hypothetical data from 3 budding gymnasts (Arnold, Lorenz and Nash). We have measured 3 components of gymnastic performance that may help to distinguish which athlete is most talented. Looking at Figure 2a, consider which of our gymnasts you think would have been identified by traditional TI models that select on the basis of physical and / or performance determinants? (n.b., bear in mind that in gymnastics, it is generally considered a disadvantage to be tall as shorter people have a lower center of gravity and can generate angular momentum quickly).

****Figure 2a near here****

14 Times up! It is probable that you chose Nash as he was the shortest gymnast of the three and did comparatively well on the other 2 components (commitment and agility). However, the concerns that we have raised in this article thus far also apply here. At present the component that receives most emphasis is a physical factor (height), but the inclusion of psycho-behavioral and psychomotor characteristics provides a more holistic description of talent. Even if you acknowledged this fact and added the contributions of the 3 components to provide a total score of talent, this still does not provide us an understanding of the interaction of these factors over time. In Figures 3b, c and d, each factor is monitored over time depicting the changes in stability associated with each individual performer. Also rather than simply adding the mature values of each component, consider the multiplicative effect that each might have on talent and how the history of each factor will be of importance. Which gymnast would you select now?

****Figure 2b,c,d near here****

It is possible that instead of Nash, you chose Arnold as his values for height, commitment and agility were favorable at the final re-test. Alternatively it might have been interesting to consider Lorenz, the lack of stability in his components may indicate the fact that he is progressing through a transitional period. Either way, the important message is that unidimensional, discrete measures of performance related variables will be less effective than a nonlinear dynamics approach to TI. A real-life example recently emerged in the form of the Russian artistic gymnast Svetlana Khorkina who was originally thought to be too tall to compete at the elite level and was advised to take up rhythmic gymnastics instead. However, Khorkina insisted on pursuing the sport she loved most and excelled despite her height disadvantage (she is a multiple world

15 champion winner across various gymnastic disciplines). In fact, she turned her added stature to an advantage by producing slower and more graceful long, levered movements. This example highlights the limitations of basing selection on just a few discrete measures of ideal performance.

Selection During Transitional Periods of Development As we have suggested, TI in sport is occurring amongst increasingly younger performers. Whilst we have already discussed the dangers of using non-mature physical variables for selection, another concern is the timing of such procedures. Elite athletes make several transitions in their careers in order to progress to the highest standards. For example, individuals often begin to specialize and achieve mastery within their chosen sport as a consequence of factors such as technical coaching and increased competitive standards. As the performer makes such transitions, many aspects of their performance become unstable. In dynamical systems terms, such unstable behavioral characteristics have been called critical fluctuations, which are in fact necessary to move the system from a previously stable state into a new more effective state. As an example, evidence from bimanual coordination tasks has revealed that, prior to transitions between stable states, the relative phasing between limbs typically exhibits critical fluctuations (Schner, Haken & Kelso, 1987). This behavioral feature provides theorists and practitioners with a way of predicting when transitions between one coordination pattern and another are about to occur. Likewise, at a macroscopic level, by plotting the stability of a relevant performance variable, one should see increased withinindividual variability prior to a transition followed by decreased within-individual variability as the movement system settles into a new stable state. Mathematical modeling of other complex systems in nature reveals that global performance trends possess similar characteristics (Kauffman, 1995).

16 Therefore, the ability of a developing athlete to cope with these unstable periods in their development is key to a successful transition to the next stage of development. Research has demonstrated that the application of psychological behaviors (e.g., effective performance evaluation, goal setting and reinforcement) is crucial to this development process and consequently underpins the potential of an individual to become a successful and consistent elite performer (see Abbott et al., 2002). With respect to the mechanisms of development processes, Granott, Fischer & Parziale (2002) refer to a dynamical systems concept known as bridging, whereby the performer creates partially defined attractor shells that mark future skills to be constructed at higher knowledge levels. In effect, athletes use psycho-behaviors as transition mechanisms that can guide them into more effective, stable levels of performance. For example, the ability to consistently produce world-class performances is often viewed as the mark of a true champion. However, national standard athletes may struggle to progress to the world class level if they do not possess the will to train to a sufficient high intensity (out of their comfort zone) and deal with the associated instability in their performance. Interestingly, Kreiner-Phillips and Orlick (1993) found that, out of 17 athletes who had won major international titles in a range of sports, only seven continued to maintain their level of performance. The remaining athletes either experienced prolonged performance slumps (n=6) or were never able to reproduce comparative performances (n=4). Kreiner-Phillips and Orlick reported that only psychological factors were able to distinguish between consistent performers, those who experienced prolonged performance slumps, and those who failed to reproduce comparative performances. Consequently, any TI processes should promote and monitor athletes (at a macroscopic level) on these key psycho-behaviors.

Recognizing and Exploiting the Capacity to Develop.

17 The rationale for adopting TI processes should be that they enable scarce resources to be targeted to facilitate the development of the talented. Therefore, a key determinant of potential must be the capacity to develop if provided with appropriate developmental experiences and support (Kunst & Florescu, 1971). The majority of past and current TI processes identify solely on the basis of variables perceived to impact performance at that particular moment, with little consideration of the range of constraints that demonstrate the individuals potential to develop. Within sport, such processes are likely to eliminate many late maturing children from strength sports (e.g., rugby) and early maturing children in agility sports (e.g., diving) and may negatively impact physical activity levels of those deselected. As an example, Helsen, Starkes, and Van Winckel (1998) report that players born later in the selection year tended to drop out of football as early as 12 years of age. Clearly, to avoid prematurely eliminating talented children who are currently not performing, it is essential to distinguish between variables that influence performance and those that influence development. Psycho-behaviors and psychomotor experiences have been highlighted as key parameters during an sports persons development (Blanksby, 1980; Kunst & Florescu, 1971). Interestingly, the same psycho-behaviors and psychomotor factors underpin success across sports, a crucial factor since domain change (i.e. starting in one sport but eventually excelling at another) has been identified as an important experience of elite performers in British sport (Moore, Collins, Burwitz, & Jess, 1998).

****Figure 3 near here****

Unfortunately, the current trend of encouraging sport specific involvement at an earlier age to ensure the talented get appropriate developmental opportunities (e.g., minirugby), is likely to prohibit the ability to transfer between sports and could further restrict the

18 number of athletes that develop into successful senior international performers. The problem is that if children are not encouraged to experience and practice a range of different motor skills at a young age, this may prevent them from capitalizing on individual strengths or transferring these skills when specializing at later stages. Consequently, practice in a range of different physical activities is advisable, particularly at an early age, as it helps to improve generalizable coordination skills such as postural control and timing. Furthermore, activities that promote the application of a range of tactical solutions in cognitively demanding situations have been shown to enhance skill retention and transfer (Turner & Martinek, 1999). Specialization at too young an age in sport (and education?) will impede such important developmental processes.

Anges sport e.g.s of nonlinear transitions from one performance plateau to another (usually influenced by change in sport or mental approach)

The Dynamic Nature of TiD: A Revised Concept of Talent We shall now discuss a revised conception of talent based on the concepts and philosophies discussed thus far. A critical message is that talent development (TD) processes must be considered alongside TI initiatives to enhance the likelihood that future stars can emerge from such schemes. Due to the range of dynamical subcomponents of talent discussed earlier, it is likely that the identification and development processes that an athlete experiences share an important reciprocal relationship. In other words, effective identification may be aided by effective development processes and vice versa. Therefore, contrary to many existing models, we argue that TI and TD should be considered as combined processes that emphasize direction and development, instead of the current practice of identification and elimination, thus TiD. The increased humanism of this approach may

19 also do much to close the split between the educational and the sporting community over the ethics of elitist TI. To ensure an appropriate emphasis of pertinent factors, the distinction between determinants of performance and determinants of potential need to be acknowledged. Recognition of this distinction should lead to greater emphasis on psychobehaviors within TiD processes and less emphasis, at least initially, on physique and performance. Further, TiD processes need to measure and direct the most pertinent factors for development through formative as opposed to summative testing. Finally, one must be aware that a number of different developmental trajectories toward elite performance are possible. Due to the complex nature of talent development, predictions concerning future behaviors should be acknowledged in dynamical language as fuzzy and probabilistic (in terms of the sensitivity and accuracy of TiD respectively). For clarity, the model will be developed piece by piece over the following sub-sections. Whilst it is beyond the scope of this paper to provide a detailed explanation of how the model can be employed in practice, the role of psychology in actualizing an individuals potential is highlighted. Performance Dispositions We propose a TiD approach (Abbott et al., 2002; Abbott & Collins, 2003) that reflects both performance dispositions and the capacity of an individual to develop (Ziegler & Perleth, 1997, as cited in Ziegler & Heller, 2000; Simonton, 1999). Our viewpoint adopts an interdisciplinary perspective on the contribution of physical, motor and psychological dispositions to sporting talent. Initially at least, TiD models should primarily be concerned with the potential an individual has to develop within sport. As psycho-behaviors characterize the means by which an individual interacts with the environment, and therefore the extent that they make the most of the opportunities that they are given, our model advocates considerable emphasis should initially be on these key developmental attributes. In other words, psycho-behaviors are seen as key tools in positively facilitating the interaction of an

20 individual with their environment and enabling successful negotiation of a path to excellence (or fulfilling ones potential!) (Freeman, 2000). Of course, the model also recognizes that key psychomotor skills and physical attributes are advantageous and essential to achieve excellence in a chosen sport (See Figure 3). However, as these variables will be heavily influenced by both past experiences and physical maturity (Bloomfield, Blanskby, & Ackland, 1990; Ackland & Bloomfield, 1996), non-mature values may be highly unstable and are therefore poor predictors of talent. Nevertheless, as many interdependent and compensatory processes will take place within and between psycho-behavioral, psychomotor and physical factors, it is crucial that an individual is also provided with the opportunities that enables the development of a repertoire of required psychomotor and physical performance dispositions. The emphasis on psycho-behavioral, psychomotor and psycho-behavioral factors within our proposed TiD model acknowledges the distinction made by Kunst and Florescu (1971) between determinants of potential and determinants of performance. Additionally, the model recognizes that as an individual matures and develops within their chosen sport, the emphasis will shift from monitoring determinants of potential to performance (Figure 3). However, considerable emphasis will still be required on psycho-behavioral factors if an individual is to successfully negotiate a pathway to excellence.

****Figure 4 near here****

Pathways to Excellence The model acknowledges that there are multiple pathways to excellence that can emerge within any sport. These pathways are typically complex, where athletes progress through various stages of development and the requirements of individuals will adjust as they

21 progress through these stages (Tebbenham, 1998). Based on previous research, four macro stages of development are highlighted within our TiD model. Specifically, our model builds upon the three stages of development identified by Bloom (1985) from his work with US athletes (initiation stage, development stage and mastery stage), and also recognizes KreinerPhillips and Orlicks (1992) work on the distinction between getting there (producing a world-class performance) and staying there (consistently producing world class performances) (see Figure 4). Within each of these stages, unique favorable environmental conditions exist and required support will differ. Additionally, it is important to recognize that whilst our model highlights four macro stages of development, the successful athlete will progress through many micro and mezo stages of development (e.g., coping with injury or a technique change) making development and the kind of support required highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict.

****Figure 5 near here****

An awareness of the complex pathways to excellence also emphasizes the necessity for performers to make several transitions in their careers. For example, Figure 4 indicates that for an individual to make the transition to the mastery stage of development, increased technical coaching and financial support will be required. Therefore, the ability of an athlete to initiate and/or commit to these changes is key to a successful developmental transition.. Successful Transition from One Stage of Development to Another Irrespective of the performance dispositions displayed or the environmental opportunities afforded, an individual only displays true potential when they are able to successfully transfer from one stage of development to another in order to eventually achieve consistent performance at the world-class level. Research has shown that this ability to

22 successfully transfer between stages of development is facilitated, and indeed characterized, by an individual developing and applying a range of psycho-behaviors (such as goal setting, self-reinforcement, and realistic performance evaluation). Consider for instance, research by Kreiner-Phillips and Orlick (1992) on the athlete who has obtained international excellence but is unable to reproduce stable, high levels of performance. Kreiner-Phillips and Orlick highlight that it is only those athletes who are able to maintain their focus that are able to be consistent world-class performers. Psycho-behaviors have been shown to strengthen stable performance characteristics whilst resisting the perturbation of distracting information (Moran, 1996). Therefore, a key concept underpinning our approach is that TiD processes should place early and continual emphasis on the development and application of key psychological behaviors as they will play a crucial role in bridging successful negotiations of developmental transitions (macro, mezo and micro) (see Figure 5). Without the ability to progress from one stage of development to the next, and to negotiate micro and mezo transitions encountered within a development stage, an individual talent will at best remain a potential. Finally, the model acknowledges that an individuals capacity to make the transition to the next stage of development may be facilitated or inhibited by their motor and physical performance dispositions. For instance, an individual who has an inadequate ratio of fast to slow twitch fibers will be find it extremely difficult to successfully make the transitions to become a world class sprinter.

****Figure 6 near here****

Interaction of Elements

23 The model of TiD depicted in Figure 6 combines the principles presented within Figures 2, 4 and 5. As such, the model recognizes the dynamic, evolutionary nature of talent and therefore the need to combine TI and TD processes. Consequently, our proposed TiD model requires a shift from the traditional emphasis on selection and elimination to one of development and continual monitoring. While the identification process is typically seen as a precursor to the TD process, we advocate the need to initially place less emphasis on the identification process and greater emphasis on providing children with the opportunity to develop factors that underpin successful development. As such, we advocate continual monitoring and development of all components that may influence the fulfillment of an individuals talent as opposed to the traditional approach of identifying the talented based on one-off performance observations (e.g., talent scouting in soccer). This approach recognizes that multiple interactive and compensatory processes take place within and between innate capabilities, environmental conditions and psycho-behaviors. Therefore, individuals should not be identified or deselected on any one component (e.g., height) since an advantage on another or a combination of other components (for instance, speed and commitment) may compensate for other weaknesses. Whilst the proposed model places substantial emphasis on the role of psychology in actualizing ones potential, we acknowledge that the transition from one stage of development to the next is also constrained by motor and physical factors. Crucially, the proposed TiD model also helps to guide the support provided to the athlete at different stages of their development and not just serve a selection agenda. In other words, (copying both jargon and approach from Higher Education) coaches and scientists should increasingly adopt a formative as opposed to a summative assessment approach in their TiD efforts. Therefore, selection processes should consider an individuals progress and behavior (e.g., commitment) during a development program as opposed to purely considering performance levels. The

24 proposed interaction of potential performance dispositions (psychomotor, psycho-behavioral and physical) and environmental conditions, on the development of an individual in sport is illustrated in Figure 6. Conclusions and Future Directions In summary, we have reviewed some of our major concerns with current TI processes in sport and alluded to more general applications in other performance domains (e.g., business, education). Theoretical considerations from non-linear dynamics and the study of complex systems provide convincing support for an alternative approach emphasizing the development of sporting talent. We have also explained how many TI models have adopted a unidimensional, microscopic approach in which talent is inappropriately conceived as a set of discrete, performance-based variables. It is likely that many countries (and corporations) around the world are currently not selecting their most potentially talented performers due to poorly defined and theoretically weak selection tools. In order to address these issues, we have proposed a generic, multidimensional model in which talent identification and talent development (TiD) processes in sport are appropriately balanced.

To test the proposed TiD model with regard to some of the nonlinear dynamics principles we have discussed would require a significant research program with several stages. An important step would be to identify the range of key determinants of elite performance (perhaps through retroactive interviews with world-class athletes). Importantly, longitudinal research is needed to monitor micro- and macro-level transitions and to develop athlete behavior over time (Morris, 2000). It would then be possible to test the stability characteristics of an athletes behaviour and associated dynamical concepts such as resistance to perturbation and relaxation time back into the new phase of their career. Finally, the fluctuations in performance that athletes experience should be measured to anticipate

25 appropriate interventions particularly in the build up and recovery from transitions. A specific working model along these lines is currently being piloted for several sports in Scotland and it is expected to yield positive results over the coming years. Finally, it is likely that many of the issues discussed in this article which relate to TI in sport transfer to other performance domains (e.g., business, education, arts etc.) (Gould, 2002; Lubinski & Benbow, 2000; Simonton, 1999). Indeed, many of the psychological behaviors that are considered necessary for talent development in sport (such as mental focus, goal-setting and self-evaluation) are beginning to receive greater attention across a range of performance domains (Jones, 2002; Loehr & Schwartz, 2001). In future work, researchers will gain an appreciation of the benefits to be gained from actively facilitating such psychological skills throughout the performers development.

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32 Ziegler, R. S., & Heller, K. A. (2002). Conceptions of giftedness from a meta-theoretical perspective. In K.A. Heller, F.J. Monks, R.J. Sternberg, & R.F. Subotnik (Eds.), International handbook of giftedness and talent (2nd ed., pp. 3-22).

33 Footnotes

1. In the sport context, we focus here on physical factors such as height or weight but other performance domains such as business also use mental attributes such as intelligence or personality traits (Guion, 1998).

34 Figure Captions Figure 1. Relative instability of height within cohorts of Scottish boys and girls (age 11 to 12). Data taken from Abbott and Collins (2002). Fig 2a,b,c,d. Hypothetical description of possible performance determinants amongst gymnasts. a) Three possible components of talent measured for three different performers (height, agility and commitment), b) Changes in height for each gymnast over time, c) Changes in commitment for each gymnast over time, d) Changes in agility for each gymnast over time. Figure 3. Proposed contribution of physical, motor & psychological dispositions to the development and performance of an athlete (adapted from Kunst and Florescu, 1971). Figure 4. Stages of development previously identified within sport. Figure 5. The role of psycho-behaviours in facilitating the successful negotiation of developmental transitions. Figure 6. A proposed multi-dimensional and dynamic model of talent identification and development in sport.

165 160 HEIGHT (CM) 155 150 145 140 135

SITTING HEIGHT AS PERCENTAGE OF HEIGHT
55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 FEMALE MALE 11 12

65 60 55 WEIGHT (KG) 50 45 40 35 30 25
170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125
AGE ( (YRS)
13 14

FEMALE MALE 11 12 13 AGE (YRS) 14

FEMALE MALE 11 12 13 AGE (YRS) 14

ARM SPAN (CM)

FEMALE MALE 11 12

AGE (YRS)

13

14

Possible Components of Talent for Gymnastics

High Height

Commitment

Agility

Low

Arnold

Nash

Lorenz

Height

v
High Arnold Nash Lorenz

Low Time Commitment

High Arnold Nash Lorenz

Low Time Agility High Arnold Nash Lorenz

Low Time

DETERMINANTS OF POTENTIAL

DETERMINANTS OF PERFORMANCE

PSYCHOMOTOR DISPOSITIONS e.g. Balance

PSYCHO-BEHAVIOURAL DISPOSITIONS, e.g., Goal Setting

PHYSICAL BASED DISPOSITIONS, e.g., Height

STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT

Transition: World Class Performance at Senior Level

Participation Opportunities Positive Family Support & Encouragement Caring Coach Orientation Fundamental Skill Development e.g., balance etc.

Technical Coaching FamilyCommitment Increasing Competitive Success Recognition of Talent & Achievements Increasing Domain Specific Experience & Physique Development etc.

Moral Family Support High Quality Competitive Training Additional Financial Support Collaborative Coach/Athlete DecisionMaking etc.

Maintains Best Performance Focus Develops an Effective System for Dealing with Increased Demands, e.g., media, public appearances etc.

GETTING THERE

STAYING THERE

Transition: Consistent World Class Performances

Transition: Athlete Identity Developed

Initiation Stage

Development Stage

Mastery Stage

Perfection Stage

Transition: Sport Prioritized

Influential Factors that Facilitate Nonlinear Transitions between Stages:

Goal Setting and Self-Reinforcement Planning and Organisation Effective and Controllable Imagery Performance Evaluation and Attributions. Psycho-motors, Physical factors,

Transition: World Class Performance at Senior Level

Initiation Stage

Development Stage

Mastery Stage

Perfection Stage

GETTING THERE

STAYING THERE

Transition: Consistent World Class Performances

Transition: Athlete Identity Developed

Transition: Sport Prioritized

Guidance towards alternative sport if a persons performance dispositions remain or become more appropriate for that sport
D AN E NG PL S RI LTI ION T O U IT NI F M OS O M O SP L NT DI A E E NU PM NC I NT LO M A CO EV E OR D ERF P

T A L E N T

D E V E L O P M E N T

Influential Factors that Facilitate Nonlinear Transitions between Stages

TALENT IDENTIFICATION
DETERMINANTS OF POTENTIAL DETERMINANTS OF PERFORMANCE

Transition: World Class Performance at Senior Level

PSYCHOMOTOR PERFORMANCE DISPOSITIONS

Initiation Stage
PSYCHO-BEHAVIOURAL PERFORMANCE DISPOSITIONS

Development Stage

Mastery Stage

Perfection Stage

PHYSICAL BASED PERFORMANCE DISPOSITIONS

STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT

GETTING THERE

STAYING THERE

Transition: Consistent World Class Performances

Transition: Athlete Identity Developed

Transition: Sport Prioritized