Stat 315 Recommended Homework 2 Chapter 2

Chapter 2
2-6.

The union is the event that the player scores in the game with A, or in the game with B,
or in both. The intersection is the event that the player scores in both games.

2-8.

R T is the event that a randomly chosen person is exposed to the ad on the radio or the
ad on television, or both. R T is the event that a randomly chosen person is exposed to
the ad on the radio and the ad on television.

2.13.P(nonfunctioning cell phone) = 3/18 = 0.1667

P(nonfunctioning data device and nonfunctioning cell phone) = 1/18 = 0.0556
P(nonfunctioning data device or nonfunctioning cell phone) = 0.2778 + 0.1667 0.0556
= 0.3889

2-19.

a. The two events are mutually exclusive.

b. Let 0, D be the events: machine is out-of-control, down (respectively). Then we
need P(O D) = P(O) + P(D) P(O D) = 0.02 + 0.015 - 0 = 0.035
c.

2-20.

P(D ) = I P(D) = I 0.015 = 0.985 . This event and D are mutually exclusive.

P(F) + P(>50) P(F & >50) = 12/20 + 2/20 2/20 = 0.6

P(< 30) = 2/20 = 0.1

2-21.

P (T R ) = P (T ) + P ( R ) P(T R ) = 0.25 + 0.34 0.10 = 0.49

2-22.

P ( S B ) = P ( S ) + P ( B ) P ( S B ) = 0.85 + 0.33 - 0.28 = 0.90

2-23.

P(VT CE) = 380/550 + 412/550 - 357/550 = 0.7909

2-27.

0.34
Given that P(R | B) = 0.85 and P(B) = 0.40,
P(R B) = P(R | B) P(B) = (.85)(.40) = 0.34

2-29.

P(D | L) = 0.60

Given that P(L D) = 0.12 and P(L) = 0.20,

P(D | L) = P(L D) / P(L) = .12 / .20 = 0.60

2-31.

a. P(M) = 198 / 1976 = 0.1002

b. P(E) = 408/1976 = 0.2065
c. Mutually exclusive events: P(M S) = P(M) + P(S) = (198 + 968) / 1976 = 0.59
d. P(H) = 284/1976 = 0.144
e. P(S | H) = P(S H) / P(H) = (128 / 1976) / (284 / 1976) = 0.451
f. P(P | E) = P(P E) / P(E) = (233 / 1976) / (408 / 1976) = 0.571
g. P(W | O) = P(W O) / P(O) = (99 / 1976) / (590 / 1976) = 0.168
h. P(E O) = P(E) + P(O) P(E O) = (408 + 590 100) / 1976 = 0.454
i. P(H S) = P(H) + P(S) P ( H S ) = (284 + 968 128) / 1976 = 0.569

2-32.

61.1% successfully completed. Given that P(A | H) = 0.94 and P(H) = 0.65,
P(A H) = P(A | H) P(H) = (.94)(.65) = 0.611

2-33. a. P(I) = 119 / 246 = 0.484

b. P(D) = 112/ 246 = 0.455
c. P(I D) = 34 / 246 = 0.138
d. P(I D) = 49/ 246 = 0.199
e. P(D | I) = P(D I) / P(I) = 0.138 / 0.484 = 0.285
f. P(I | D) = P(I D)/P(D) = (85 / 246) / (134 / 246) = 0.634
g. P(D I) = P(D) + P(I) P ( D I ) = 0.455 + 0.484 0.138 = 0.801

2.35.

P(Critical Danger | Dependence on Forested Areas)

= P(CD DFA) / P(DFA) = 0.30 / 0.90 = 0.333

2-37.

P(at least one job) = 1 P(no jobs) = 1

(by
3 3 3 6 6 20 20
independence) = 0.8143

2 2 2 5 5 19 19

(Use template: Probability of at least 1.xls)

Probability of at least one success from many independent trials.

Success Probs
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

0.333
0.333
0.333
0.167
0.167
0.05
0.05

Prob. of at least one success

0.8142

2-39. P(increase sales all three countries) = P(increase sales in US) x P(increase sales
Australia) x P(increase sales in Japan)
P(increase sales all three countries) = (0.95)(0.90)(0.85) = 0.72675

2-43. (Use template: Probability of at least 1.xls)

Probability of at least one success from many independent trials.
Success Probs
1
2
3
4

2-48.

0.7
0.82
0.8
0.9

Prob. of at least one success

0.9989

The device works if at least one out of three works.

P(device works) = 1 P(all components fail)
= 1 (1 0.96)(1 0.91)(1 0.80) = 0.99928

2-51.

Since 1/4 of the items are in any particular quartile, and assuming independent random
samples with replacement so that all four choices have the same probability of

being in the top quartile, P(all four in top quartile) = (1/4)4 = 1/256 = 0.0039
P(at least one from bottom quartile) = 1 P(all four from top three quartiles) =
1 (3/4)4 = 175/256 = 0.684

2-60.

Let T,R be the events: successful takeover, resignation of a board member.

P(T | R) = 0.65 P(T | R) = 0.30

P(R) = 0.70

P(T) = P(T | R)P(R) + P(T | R)P(R) = (.65)(.7) + (.30)(.30) = 0.545

2.70.

Let MM, FF, MF denote the events of reaching the two men, the two women, the
married couple (respectively). Let W be the event that a woman answers the
door.

Then:
P(MF) = 1/3

P(W | MF) =

P(MF W) = 1/6

P(MM) = 1/3

P(W | MM) = 0

P(MM W) = 0

P(FF) = 1/3

P(W | FF) = 1

P(FF W) = 1/3

P(W) =

P(MF | W) = [ P(MF W)/P(W)] = [ (1/6) / (1/2) ] = 1/3

2-83.

P(defective) = 0.1
5 chips are chosen at random.
P(none of the 5 are defective) = (0.90)5 = 0.59049
P(at least one is defective) = 1 P(none are defective) = 0.40951

2-87.

Let L, A be the events: legislation is passed, authorization is granted.

P(L A) = 0.5 P(L) = 0.75
P(A | L) = P(L A) / P(L) = 0.5/0.75 = 0.6667

2-88.

Let D, H be the events: customer defaults, economy is high.

P(D | H) = 0.04

P(D | H) = 0.13

P(H) = 0.65

P(D) = P(D | H) P(H) + P(D | H)P(H)

= (.04)(.65) + (.13)(.35) = 0.0715
2-92.

Let A, F, So, J, Se be the events: student got an A, student is a freshman, sophomore,

junior, senior
P(Se | A)
P(A | Se) P(Se)
=
P(A | Se) P(Se) + P(A |F) P(F) + P(A | So) P(So) + P(A | J)P(J)
(.40)(.15)
=

= 0.2034
(.40)(.15) + (.20)(.30) + (.30)(.35) + (.35)(.20)

2-96. The probability of dying in a car crash in the U.S. is 40676 / 280000000 =
0.000145. The probability of dying in a car crash in France is 0.000096 (from
problem 2-49). The rate in the U.S. is 1.5 times larger than the rate in France.
The probability of not dying in a car crash in the U.S. is 0.999855. The
probability of dying in a car crash in the U.S. over the next 20 years is:
1- P(not dying) = 1 (0.999855)20 = 0.002896.

2-97.

Assume a large population so that the sampling can be considered as being done with
replacement (i.e., removing one item does not appreciably alter the remaining number of
data points on either side of the median). Then the first item drawn is on a particular side
of the median, after which the second item has a 1/2 probability of coming from the other
side, since half of the points in the population are on one side and half are on the other by
the definition of median. Thus the probability that the median will lie between the two
points drawn is 1/2.

2-101.
open
close
total

Kwik Save Somerfield

893
0
107
424
1000
424

total
893
531
1424

a. 107 / 531 = .202

b. 531 / 1424 + 1000 / 1424 107 / 1424 = 1.00
c. 0