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The Banks are suffering from a tug of war, with political pressure to increase leverage on one side and capital requirements forcing a deleverage on the other; This conundrum is further intensified by the fact that the rationale behind both forces is justifiable; With traditional methods to increase capital buffers less accessible, we ask whether an innovative funding opportunity exists.
Gregory Perdon, Eren Osman & Daniel Williams T. +44 (0)20 7012 2522 E. investment@arbuthnot.co.uk
Assuming relatively low losses are incurred. Returns are subject to counterparty risk with the potential for all the capital to be lost.
Put simply, the greater amount of high quality capital a bank possesses relative to its asset base (adjusted for risk) should in theory indicate the banks degree of safety (which is a gross over-simplification). In contemplating this equation one should carefully consider the fact that not all capital on a banks balance sheet can be used in calculating the ratio under Basel III (see Appendix 1). A banks capital can be classified4 into Tier 1, Tier 2 and others. Tier 1 is the nucleus of total capital, which the bank has full control over, to deploy immediately in the event of losses. Tier 2 is a form of capital that may convert into Tier 1 at a point in the future. Another feature of this type of capital is that there is little obligation to return it immediately to investors. If push were to come to shove and the losses were to exacerbate beyond the level that can be met by Tier 1, then the bank may look to Tier 2 capital for additional buffer. All other forms of capital are classified under others category. Regulators (under Basel III) only consider Tier 1 and Tier 2 as eligible capital when computing the banks capital ratio.
Based on OECDs country risk classification the US has a lowest rating of 0 (on scale of 0-7), US T-Bills are considered the high quality liquid asset as per Basel III, and are risk weighted at 0% in the Basel II standardised approach. It should also be noted that because a US T-Bill is a short-term, zero-coupon obligation maturing in less than one year, the duration of the security will be very low in light of the fact the weighted average time until all the related cash flows are received is low. Duration is a measure of how sensitive the price of a bond is to the movements in interest rates. Thus a short maturity T-Bill is considered less risky than a comparatively longer duration bond. Low price volatility signifies low risk to Net Asset Value of the bond portfolio. 3 Also known as Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): Capital ratio=(Total Capital (Tier 1+Tier2))
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Additional details on the components of Total capital and its placement on the balance sheet are provided in Section XX
Regulatory Capital Thematic - September 2013 But merely holding higher total capital is not the only measure of the stability and the solvency of a bank. If this were the case, then the biggest banks with the largest capital bases would be considered the safest and we all know this is not true. The riskiness of the banks asset base is equally important. This is represented by the denominator of the capital ratio. Assets that are more risky are assigned a higher weight and the assets that are less risky are assigned a lower weight. Assets are respectively multiplied by their risk-weighting and then summed to determine the overall riskweighting of the portfolio. Thus, in effect, a portfolio with more risky assets would result in a bigger denominator. It would then follow that banks could improve their capital ratios by either a) holding more regulatory capital (raising the numerator) or b) shedding risky loans and thus reducing the denominator. From the illustration found in Box 2 overleaf, we quickly realise that regardless of Bank A holding less capital than Bank B, the former maintains a higher Capital Adequacy Ratio because it is assuming less risk. Its loan book relative to Bank B is comprised of lower risk-weighted assets, whilst Bank Bs loan book contains higher risk assets (such as Sovereign debt of a previously defaulted nation). This approach of risk-weighting assets helps investors and regulators make fairer and easier comparisons between banks that are operating across different geographies and national structures.
Box 2: Case Study: Calculation of capital ratio from the Balance sheet of two banks
Assets US T-bills Mortgages AA Corporate Bond BB Sovereign (Defaulted) Total Assets Preferred stock + Shareholders equity Bank A 300 300 200 100 900 40 Bank B 100 200 300 400 1000 50 Liabilities Deposits Senior debt Subordinate debt Hybrids Total Liabilities Bank A 600 250 10 860 Bank B 600 340 5 5 950
As per the Balance sheet the two banks have different assets and liabilities. Bank A has lower total assets and lower shareholders equity than Bank B. In order to determine their capital ratio we need to estimate their Total capital and Risk weighted assets. Total capital = Tier 1 capital + Tier 2 capital, and in this example: Tier 1 capital = Shareholders equity + Preferred stock Tier 2 capital= Subordinate debt + Hybrids Bank As Total capital = 40 + 10 = 50 Bank Bs Total Capital = 50 + 5 + 5 = 60 Risk weighting of assets
US T-Bill 0%
Mortgages 50%
Risk weighted assets are calculated by multiplying assets with their respective risks. US T-bills which is one of the least risky assets is assigned a risk weight of 0%. The weights increase as the risk increases. A risk weight of 150% (>100%) for sovereigns that have defaulted in the past signifies that the regulators want banks to keep reserve capital far more than their original investment in such countries. It is also a way to desist banks from holding such investments. We calculate the Risk weighted assets: Bank As RWA = (300 x 0%) + (300 x 50%) + (200 x 100%) + (100 x 150%) = 500 Bank Bs RWA = (100 x 0%) + (200 x 50%) + (300 x 100%) + (400 x 150%) = 1000 Having calculated both the total capital and the risk weighted assets, the capital ratio can be determined for these two banks:
BASEL II
Pillar I Pillar II Pillar III Pillar I
BASEL III
Pillar II Pillar III
Enhanced Supervisory Review Process for Firm-wide Risk Management and Capital Planning
(Figure 1) Source: Moodys analytics, Basel III New Capital and Liquidity standards The benefits yielded by these additional capitalisation requirements are widely debated. The proponents argue that there are significant macroeconomic benefits from raising equity. More equity/Tier 1 capital will lower the leverage of the banking sector and thus reduce the risk of bankruptcies. But critics highlight the cost of implementing these increased capital requirements. This cost may in turn increase the price of their lending and if the cost for customers to borrow increases then this could potentially postpone important spending or hiring decisions (especially by SMEs5) which may hurt much needed economic growth.
Regulatory Capital Thematic - September 2013 There are a small number of specialist managers (representing investors) that can offer this solution. The idea behind the strategy is that a group of investors sell loss protection against parts of a banks asset book. As a result of the bank buying this protection against potential losses, they are able to carve out and genuinely re-assign part of their risk to an unrelated party. The rationale behind such an initiative is to reduce the amount of assets, which are eating disproportionately into their capital buffers. Typically, these risk-sharing transactions work by repackaging parcels of assets, such as corporate loans or counterparty risk and by transferring a portion of this risk, to a non-bank investor. This new entity then agrees to absorb the first or second tranche of losses should the loans go bad or counterparties default. As discussed earlier, capital ratios are a function of eligible capital divided by risk weighted assets. If the denominator (amount of risk weighted assets) decreases, the overall ratio will increase (all else held constant). If a bank needs to increase its capital ratio this represents a viable solution for consideration and helps to reconcile the high cost of holding these assets with the need to continue lending money to clients, which is often crucial to winning other parts of their business.
Asset-backed securities (ABS) All of which combine to create the capital stack
Regulatory Capital Thematic - September 2013 Securitisation allows banks to bundle together assets into one structure and stack them in decreasing order of their inherent risks. This stack is analogous to a tall building, comprising of say ten floors. Assuming the sole tenant only uses the tall building for the warehousing of goods and the structure is located in a flood prone area, the occupier would probably store their least valuable goods9 on the ground floor and most valuable goods10 on the top floors. In the hypothetical event of a modest flood only the goods on the ground floor would be damaged or washed away, whilst goods stored on higher floors (more expensive to replace) would probably remain undamaged. If the calamity prolongs and water continues to rise to subsequent floors, the accumulated losses would grow. This is where the reinsurance example is complimented by a securitisation illustration, in that the occupier might agree with their business partners that they could weather a modest flood themselves (selfinsure with their own reserves) but if the flood were to be significant, their reserves would not be deep enough to keep them in business (even though their most valuable goods were stored high up top). In order to protect their business, they may decide to accept the first loss (ground and first floor) and lay off the second loss (say, 2nd, 3rd and 4th floors) to a third party in exchange for a fee paid by the occupier. The theory says that in this scenario the business strengthens due to its risk reduction strategy, which in turn offers the management team the option of either remaining conservative or embarking on an aggressive growth strategy.
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1bn x 75% =
750m x 10% =
Consider Bank A, which holds a loan portfolio of 1bn. The composition of its assets is such that after a risk weighted assessment its total Risk weighted assets are calculated as 750mn. In order to comply with a simplified capital ratio of 10%, the bank should maintain a capital base of at least 75mn. In the case of Bank A, the capital requirement has been satisfied. Bank B has a similar quality asset base also holding 1bn in loans and 750mn in Risk weighted assets. Under the same regulatory requirement Bank B would also be required to maintain a 10% capital ratio, i.e. hold 75mn of eligible capital. Unfortunately Bank B recently faced several external problems and now holds a reduced capital base of only 30mn. With a capital ratio of only 4%, it stands well below the regulatory requirement of 10%. Regulators rightfully put pressure on Bank B to increase its buffers, but existing shareholders prefer to avoid diluting their holdings via further equity issuance and Bank B would prefer not to limit itself with potential legal covenants by funding through debt. Bank B seeks to explore a regulatory capital relief strategy.
Bank B currently not complying with a regulatory capital requirement maintaining a Capital Ratio of 4%
1bn x 75% =
750m x 10% =
Bank holds only 30m in Eligible Capital which is far below the 75m required, with a short-fall of circa 45m.
Capital Ratio = 4%
Bank B through a capital relief transaction, the simplified regulatory requirement of 10% is now satisfied.
The senior tranche is AA rated with a risk weight of only 8%. 1bn-65m15m-920m
The Regulatory Capital Relief strategy provides reinsurance for 19/20 or 95% of the rst oor
1/20 of 65m of rst oor is still with Bank B. Its risk weight is 1250%
A risk-based assessment of the assets: 920m x 8% = 73.6m 65m x (1/20) x 1250% = 40.6m 15m x 1250% = 187.5m Total RWA = 73.6 + 40.62 + 187.5 = 301.7m
Ground oor: Unrated and completely retained by Bank B. Risk weight 1250%
302m x 10% =
Weighted average of first loss, senior tranche and retained vertical slice, this retained slice represents 1/20 of the second tranche. Bank Bs risk weight = 920 x 8% + 3.25 x 1250% + 15 x 1250% = 302mn 12 Unrated first loss positions in securitisation transactions have to be risk weighted a 1250%
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Why should banks seek relief, why not raise capital the old fashion way?
Regulators want banks to prop up their balance sheets and retain adequate capital to meet future unexpected liabilities. Theoretically, banks should just recapitalise using the typical ways (equity or debt issuance). Pedants could even argue that it is the best way to capitalise, will make the banking system most robust and should improve the general welfare of society. Sceptics have argued that capital relief strategies are akin to patching a tyre; whilst raising capital the old fashion way is simply replacing the punctured tyre. We side-line ourselves from this belief and consider a banks route to increasing its capital base as a purely economic decision. Even if we ignore the fact that in the current economic environment banks are challenged to raise capital at a price close to their appropriate valuations; banks need to consider the cost and returns of each method before making a final decision. The direct cost of issuing additional equity is the compensation (dividend pay-out) that investors demand, in the immediate year and/or through the increased growth of dividends in the future, in exchange for holding the assets of the company and bearing the risk of ownership. However, from the existing shareholders perspective, additional equity issuance13 has an indirect cost as it dilutes their ownership in the firm. Shareholders understand this and commonly, when firms issue additional equity, the market penalises it by de-rating and selling the companys shares. Alternatively, raising capital by issuing bonds safeguards shareholders from relinquishing their share of the company and lowers a firms tax base14 but debt issuance can present other challenges to both the firm and its investors. An institution that is highly leveraged is more prone to cash flow difficulties as it has to meet interest payments irrespective of income and could find itself in a more vulnerable position during an economic or financial market shock. Additionally, if the debt is issued with strict covenants, the firms freedom to operate may be constrained. Regulatory capital relief strategies can in some cases help improve the capital ratio of the bank but can also impact other performance measures of the firm such as Net Income and Return on Equity15 in light of the costs associated with these transactions. A detailed analysis of these remains outside the scope of this report but banks need to carefully analyse the trade-off before committing to a strategy. At times, patching a punctured tyre until a future date may best serve the objectives of the company at that point in time.
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If unaccompanied by an equivalent increase in assets As debt payments are tax-deductible Net Income) 15 A measure of firms profitability, i.e. the amount of profits a firm generates with the money that shareholders have invested. ROE= Shareholders sequity
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Conclusion
Politicians are seeking to expand credit by urging banks to lend more freely. In the UK we are seeing country-wide initiatives such as the help to buy and funding for lending scheme as means which are designed to help the economy recover. On the other hand, we are witnessing increased regulation, which require banks to strengthen their capital buffers. From a banks point of view this has created a dilemma, which appears unresolvable. However by utilising genuine risk transfer practices, banks can unearth additional capital to meet their regulatory capital requirements and in some cases free up capital to facilitate additional lending. This strategy offers obvious advantages such as having to avoid selling prized assets at undesirable prices and/or being forced to reduce their core lending businesses but the window of opportunity may not last forever. The fact still remains whether the institution is raising capital or risk transferring, neither solution is easy or risk-free but when executed properly investors can potentially benefit from above market returns assuming they are prepared to accept the risks.
The authors wish to acknowledge and thank Mr. Jayant Yadav for his valuable contributions to this report.
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APPENDIX I Where do Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital feature on Bank Balance sheets?
Not all assets are equally risky; similarly we need to consider that not all capital is equally liquid. The effectiveness of a capital instrument in buffering against a negative event depends on the ease with which the capital can be put to use if and when required. Capital is classified on the basis of its ability to absorb losses and is divided into various tiers.
Tier 1 is the highest form of bank capital, it is permanent, fully paid up, and the bank has these funds at its disposal. Besides common equity, the other forms of Tier 1 capital like Preferred Stock, are capable of absorbing losses and can help the institution continue trading in the event of losses up to the value of this capital. But Goodwill, an asset on the balance sheet, is not liquid enough to be capitalised in the hour of need, so it is excluded from the Tier 1 capital.
Tier 2 is the other form of capital, it may not be completely available at the banks disposal, but its structure does not impose any restrictions on the bank to use it as a secondary cushion. 1) Hybrids (with characteristics of equity and debt), 2) Subordinated debt (opposite of senior debt) and 3) Loss provisions (allowances made for an expected loss) etc. are not owned by the bank but if the expected losses go beyond the Tier 1 cover then the institution may put them into use. We have devised a particular case to help illustrate the calculation of eligible capital. See Case 1.
Capital ratios are calculated by dividing the capital with risk-weighted average of assets.
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+0 2.5% +0 to 2.5% +0 to 2.5% +2.5% +2.5% 4% 2% Core Tier 1 ratio Tier 1 ratio Tier 1 + Tier 2 ratio +2.5% +2% 8% +2.5% Basel III countercylical buer Basel III conservation buer Basel III min. Add-on Basel III min.
The Basel Committee is the primary global standard-setter for the prudential regulation of banks and provides a forum for cooperation on banking supervisory matters. Its mandate is to strengthen the regulation, supervision and practices of banks worldwide with the purpose of enhancing financial stability. The committee however has no legal force in implementing those standards. http://www.bis.org/bcbs/about.htm
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