BTI 2012 | Poland Country Report

Status Index Political Transformation "conomic Transformation

1-10 9 20 ! 8 of 128

1-10

9.0 5

# 6 of 128

?? ??
1-10 6.7 9 score # 1# of 128 ran* trend

1-10

8 89

! 6 of 128

Management Index

scale$ 1 %lo&est' to 10 %(i)(est'

T(is report is part of t(e Bertelsmann +tiftun),s Transformation Inde- %BTI' 2012 T(e BTI is a )lo.al assessment of transition processes in &(ic( t(e state of democracy and mar*et economy as &ell as t(e /uality of political mana)ement in 128 transformation and de0elopin) countries are e0aluated 1ore on t(e BTI at (ttp$22&&& .tipro3ect or) Please cite as follo&s$ Bertelsmann +tiftun)4 BTI 2012 5 Poland Country Report 67terslo($ Bertelsmann

+tiftun)4 2012 8 2012 Bertelsmann +tiftun)4 67terslo(

BTI 2012 | Poland

Key Indicators Population Pop )ro&t(1 >ife e-pectancy ?r.an population mn < pa year s < 38 .2 0 . 7 6 61 .2 9:I 9:I ran* of 18= ?@ "ducation Inde6ender ine/uality2 0.8 13 39 0.8 22 0.1 6 6:P p c 6ini IndePo0erty# Aid per capita < ; ; 197 83 3 .2 !2 "

+ources$ T(e Borld Ban*4 Borld :e0elopment Indicators 2011 | ?@:P4 9uman :e0elopment Report 2011 Cootnotes$ %1' A0era)e annual )ro&t( rate %2' 6ender Ine/uality Inde- %6II' %#' Percenta)e of population li0in) on less t(an ;2 a day

"-ecuti0e +ummary
The 2009 2011 period was marked by several major features. The government is omposed of a two!party oalition reated after the 200" parliamentary ele tion. #t onsists of $ivi %latform &%'( and %olish %eople)s %arty &%*+(, the latter learly being the junior partner in the oalition. The years under s rutiny an be divided roughly into two parts- The period prior to the 10 .pril 2010 plane rash in whi h %olish %resident +e h /a 0y1ski was killed near *molensk,, and the period whi h followed it. 2otwithstanding the rash itself and the dire onse3uen es for %olish politi s &do0ens of the %olish politi al elite lost their lives(, the most important onse3uen e of the tragedy was the enormous hallenge the state fa ed just to ontinue fun tioning in a ordan e with onstitutional rules. This stern test has been passed su essfully, in parti ular in the immediate aftermath of the a ident. The long!term effe ts are less positive. The 4une 2010 presidential ele tion revealed the emergen e of a deep division in %olish so iety between the amps of the two main politi al parties, %' and +aw and 4usti e %arty &%i*.( 5owever, the main turn for the worst happened after the ele tion. 6hen the %i* andidate, 4aroslaw /a 0y1ski, lost the ele tion he immediately began to 3uestion the legitima y of the ele ted president 7ronislaw /omorowski and embarked on a very aggressive politi al ampaign fo used almost e8 lusively on the plane rash. %olish politi s be ame e8tremely emotional and void of poli y debate. %rime 9inister Tusk and the president himself were a used not only of being responsible for the rash, but also of state treason and : ollaboration with %utin; to bring about the tragedy. 7efore the rash, %olish politi s were far from perfe t in terms of organi0ational and logisti al merits. The late president, +e h /a 0y1ski, has been e8tremely partisan in his support of his twin brother)s party, %i*. The ohabitation between him and the %'!led government was a lassi al e8ample of a dysfun tional semi!presidential system deadlo ks, slowing down the legislative pro ess, unne essary onfli ts, vetoes, and bla kmailing with vetoes to blo k poli y

BTI 2012 | Poland

<

reforms. . signifi ant part of the riti al evaluations presented below deals with this un ooperative relationship between state president and prime minister.

9istory and C(aracteristics of Transformation

%oland was the first ountry in $entral and =astern =urope to undertake the transformation from ommunism to demo ra y. The transition was managed through negotiations between the ruling party and the opposition movement and took pla e in a period of high un ertainty be ause the rea tions of the *oviet >nion to these developments were diffi ult to assess. These aspe ts produ ed a lega y of unsolved politi al onfli ts between those politi al a tors who parti ipated and those who abstained from the :deal; with the .n ien ?@gime. #t also left un lear institutional regulations in the reformed onstitution, and these affe ted the pro ess of onsolidating demo ra y in %oland in the years that followed. The starting point for the transformation an be tra ed ba k to the mid!19"0s with the establishment of an underground opposition that ultimately led to the reation of the *olidarity movement in 19A0. *olidarity was initially an independent trade union that during its first period of e8isten e &19A0 19A1( gradually transformed into a so ial movement and then into national liberation movement. The introdu tion of martial law on 1B Ce ember 19A1 interrupted the pro ess for a few years, but it had already be ome lear by 19AD that the 4aru0elski regime was seeking some kind of new opening and was willing to re ogni0e part of the opposition as a de fa to and de jure so ial a tor. #n 19AA, round!table talks were planned for early 19A9, and these were initially envisaged as a way to se ure the power of the ruling elite by giving in to some demands of the opposition and by introdu ing some e onomi reforms. The round!table talks, however, led to a mu h more ambitious proje t, and semi!free ele tions were s heduled for 4une 19A9 whi h guaranteed D<E of the seats for the %olish >nited 6orkers) %arty &%F%?( and their satellite allies, >nited %easants) %arty &F*+( and Cemo rati %arty &%C(. *ome further hanges to the onstitution were also tabled, su h as the introdu tion of a state president and a se ond hamber, the *enate. The out ome of the ele tion ame as a real surprise to many, be ause *olidarity managed to win its entire share of seats and the majority of seats in the freely ele ted se ond hamber, the *enate. The overall message of the ele tion results was that the ruling ommunist party had no politi al legitima y whatsoever. .s a onse3uen e, prolonged negotiations in the summer of 19A9 were followed by establishment of the first non! ommunist government under the premiership of Tadeus0 9a0owie ki, and the real transformation towards demo ra y and market e onomy was laun hed. #t is important to remember that the round!table negotiations were a very signifi ant su ess demonstrating the ability of %oles to negotiate the transition without bloodshed. 7ut, as mentioned above, the negotiated transition has had a lasting imprint on politi al debates in %oland. 'n the one hand, left!wing and liberal representatives in the politi al spe trum onsider the round!table negotiations and their out ome to be histori ally important and su essful

BTI 2012 | Poland

a hievements, while on the other hand, the right!wing treat it as a politi al mistake &moderate version( or even as treason &e8tremist version(. #n addition to this politi al development, %olish e onomi reforms were laun hed as early as fall 19A9. #t be ame known as a :sho k therapy; reform and was asso iated with the name of the then 9inister of Ginan e +es0ek 7al erowi 0. The fortunes of the e onomi hanges in %oland are as ompli ated as the politi al ones. Taking a very broad perspe tive and on entrating on the ma roe onomi indi ators alone, it is obvious that %oland ompared to all other $entral and =astern =uropean ountries represents a su ess story. Curing the two de ades sin e their implementation, the %olish e onomi reforms allowed for almost a doubling of the overall HC% &as of 2011, HC% stands at about 190E of the 19A9 level(. #t has to be emphasi0ed that this is due to both developments in the 1990s and to %oland)s status as an =.>. member. %oland entered the => in 9ay 2004, after a referendum held in 4une 200B in whi h ""E of the adult population voted in favor of joining => &with a turnout of appro8imately <9E(. *in e then %oland has proved to be a reliable => partner, e8 ept for the period of the %i* government between 200< and 200". .fter the 2009 ele tions to the =uropean parliament 4er0y 7u0ek be ame the president of the =uropean %arliament and %oland is now preparing to take responsibility for the => presiden y from summer 2011 onwards. Cespite %oland)s a hievements in e onomi development and towards international integration, the so iopoliti al division in the ountry remains. #n 200<, %oland witnessed the : riti al ele tions; whi h hanged the omposition of the party system, its operation and interparty ooperation and onfli ts. The government that took offi e under the leadership of the %i* laun hed an unpre edented ampaign to reform the entire onstitutional order of the ?epubli of %oland. This idea was labeled the :#I ?epubli ,; the su essor to the post!so ialist ### ?epubli &as it was labeled in the 199" onstitution(. The #I ?epubli plan failed, mainly due to its openly authoritarian tenden ies and lear disrespe t for demo rati fundamentals, like the independen e of the entral bank andJor autonomy of the onstitutional tribunal. 2evertheless, sin e 200< the %olish party system has been omposed of two main ompetitors, %' and %i* two right!wing parties that attra t about A0E of the vote and even more parliamentary seats. 7oth parties differ in terms of e onomi poli ies, the first trying to on lusively bring about a so ial!market e onomy, while the latter favors more state intervention. 5owever, the greater differen es between the two are so io! ultural, and on ern dealing with the ountry)s so ialist past, symboli and traditional issues of gender, alternative lifestyles and the role of the hur h. 7oth parties stress the importan e of ivil so iety but with signifi antly divergent emphasis. %i* holds very pro!state standpoints by =uropean standards. The parties also differ in their attitude towards the outside world, where the learly pro!=uropean %' aims at ooperation and ollaboration even on the most problemati issues of foreign poli y, while the %i* favors a tough, intransigent foreign poli y, is euroskepti and unfriendly towards %oland)s two main neighbors, ?ussia and Hermany.

BTI 2012 | Poland

"

T(e BTI com.ines te-t analysis and numerical assessments T(e score for eac( /uestion is pro0ided .elo& its respecti0e title T(e scale ran)es from 10 %.est' to 1 %&orst'

Transformation +tatus
I Political Transformation
1 # Stateness
Duestion +core

+aw and order in a ordan e with fundamental onstitutional provisions is guaranteed in the territory of the ?epubli of %oland. There are no signs of any ompetition for the state)s monopoly on the use of power and for e again, in a ordan e with onstitutional rules. The ountry is religiously and ethni ally 3uite homogeneous. =thni %oles onstitute about 9"E of the population. 2o en laves of irredenta or mafias e8ist. The majority of %olish iti0ens identify with the %olish state &as do part of those living abroad( and observe the onstitutional rules. .s elsewhere in demo ra ies, there is a debate on the urrent, :modern; patriotism. *ome, mainly on the right, offers a nationalisti , twentieth! entury narrative, whereas the left and the liberals draw on more ontemporary ideas linked to =uropeani0ation of %oland. The majority of ethni minorities identifies with the %olish state, onstitution and %olish iti0enship. The rest, who in terms of absolute numbers represent a real minority, raise issues of autonomy and lo al, regional or ethni identities &e.g., ?u h .utonomii Klaska, the 9ovement for the .utonomy of *ilesia &?.*((, but even they have re ently onfined themselves to rather more moderate demands for more self!government and de entrali0ation. 'ffi ially re ogni0ed national minorities have spe ial rights on erning their politi al representation in the parliament. Gor e8ample, their parties do not have to lear the <E threshold that other politi al parties have to rea h to enter parliament. They are also privileged be ause they only have to olle t signatures for their ele toral ommittees in five of the onstituen ies.

1onopoly on t(e use of force

10

+tate identity

10

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The onstitutional provisions on erning the se ularity of the %olish state are pretty lear, even a ounting for the 199B on ordat. 2evertheless, everyday pra ti e breaks with these provisions. 9ost problemati is the issue of religious instru tion at publi s hools. #t was initially intended that non!$atholi hildren would attend :ethi s; lasses instead of religious instru tion lasses, but this se ular alternative never ame about. The influen e of the %olish $atholi $hur h on ontemporary

@o interference of reli)ious do)mas

%olish politi s is enormous, to the e8tent that during the 2010 presidential ele tion, most priests and bishops took sides in the politi al ompetition. They learly favored one of the andidates &/a 0y1ski( as they had previous ele tions, sometimes more and sometimes less e8pli itly. #n 2009, 9<E of %oles still onsidered themselves to be believers, but nearly the same amount of people wanted the hur h to interfere less in politi s &survey ondu ted by the $enter for the *tudy of %ubli 'pinion(. 9oreover, the best indi ator of the power of the $atholi $hur h in publi life is the %roperty $ommission, whi h has been in operation for 1D years. This institution was established to restitute hur h property that was nationali0ed by the ommunist regime, and has turned into an una ountable institution that a epted almost all hur h laims for ompensation. #t has defrauded many %oles of valuable land and real estate. 9oreover, the de isions of the %roperty $ommission are finalL no appeal an be lodged. This on lusion was upheld by the %olish *upreme $ourt in the mid! 1990s, in lear violation not only the spirit of the rule of law, but also the right to a fair trial warranted by the human rights onvention. There are differentiated administrative stru tures providing basi and more omprehensive publi servi es throughout the ountry.

Basic administra tion

10
2 # $o%itica% $artici&ation

There are no onstraints on free and fair ele tions, whi h are held regularly &if they are held irregularly, it is only for reasons envisaged in the onstitution(. %oland assures universal suffrage and se ret ballotL party platforms offer real programmati alternatives. The ele toral ommission is impartial, registration easy and fair, polling pro edures transparent. 5owever, partisanship of media and journalists has grown. 9oreover, voter turnout is still very low even by $entral and =astern =uropean standards, usually falling below <0E. #n 200", <B.9E parti ipated the highest rate sin e free ele tions began in %oland.

Cree and fair elections

10

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=le ted politi ians have effe tive power to govern. =8ternal a tors, business elites and the military do not e8er ise veto powers. The $atholi $hur h does not e8er ise a veto power in its proper sense, but it ertainly has far too mu h influen e on several poli y domains in whi h its) impa t is far from onsultative. Gor e8ample, in reality it has a profound influen e on sele ted areas of health, welfare and edu ation poli y. The onstitutional provisions guaranteeing asso iation and assembly freedom are unrestri ted and pra ti ed by both individuals and asso iations. The government does not restri t freedom of asso iation. The freedom of e8pression is se ured. 2o

"ffecti0e po&er to )o0ern

10

Association 2 assem.ly ri)(ts

10

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10

violations of politi al liberties were reported, in ontrast to previous period of %i*! led government. Greedom of e8pression has improved under the urrent %'!led government and its most important manifestations are onstitutionally guaranteed and usually a hieved. There has been a definite improvement in relation to the %i* government with its multiple violations of these freedoms, and %oland rose from position B" in 2009 to position B2 in 2010 in the ?eporters without 7orders ranking. *till, these improvements should not lead us to forget that %olish publi media are still politi ally biased and partisan. They were biased in favor of the main opposition party, in parti ular in 2009. %rivate ele troni and print media often ompensate for biases or defi ien ies in publi media. The Tusk government failed to reform the highly partisan 2ational $oun il on ?adio and Television &/??iT( be ause of the veto of the previous state president, +e h /a 0ynski. The *ejm &the lower house of parliament(, *enate and the ne8t state president reje ted /??iT)s report to the parliament in .ugust 2010 an unpre edented move. /??iT was dissolved and five new personnel ele ted to the oun il. . new law has been prepared whi h will regulate the nomination and omposition of /??iT a ording to professional merits instead of politi al affiliations.
3 # 'u%e o( )a* Creedom of e-pressi on

There was a lear de jure and de fa to separation of powers in %oland during the period under review, and it applies to both the lassi al three pillars &e8e utive, legislature and judi iary( as well as the double e8e utive of prime minister and president. *tate power is subje t to law. The government)s a tions and poli y implementation are guided by law. *ome of these a tions at least until mid!2010 were ompli ated by the inhospitable onfli t between the late %resident /a 0ynski and %rime 9inister Tusk)s government, whi h redu ed legal ertainty onsiderably. %oli y implementation in parti ular was affe ted.

+eparation of po&ers

10

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11

The judi iary is institutionally and fun tionally differentiatedL it is independent of the un onstitutional intervention of politi al for es. 5owever, it is more problemati to laim that it is free from orruption. 9oreover, it is un lear whether it is ompletely independent from the $atholi $hur h)s influen e. The main flaw of the %olish judi iary is the everyday fun tioning of the ourt system obsolete regulations, sluggishness and ineffe tiveness are fa tors in its evaluation. There are several important legal institutions prote ting the rule of law in %oland, whi h operate fairly smoothly, like the $onstitutional Tribunal, and the *upreme $ourt, whi h effe tively ontrols the government and the legislative bran h. #n 9ar h

Independ ent 3udiciary

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12

2010, the fun tions of the minister of justi e and publi prose utor!general were finally separated. %oland has a full system of legal provisions in pla e to fight offi e abuse by those in power, but in reality it is e8tremely rare for politi ians to be prose uted and senten ed. 'ffenders are more likely to lose a lu rative position of influen e than to end up in jail. .s a rule, offi eholders do get prose uted for abuses of publi position or violations of law, but only if there is strong publi sentiment on the matter, and the media :assists.; 5owever, %oland has sophisti ated legislation on erning orruption, a ode of ondu t for ivil servants and mandatory asset de larations for holders of publi offi e. #n 200D, the %i* government founded a spe ial .nti! orruption 7ureau &$entralne 7iuro .ntykorup yjne, $7.(, but it fre3uently abused its powers in order to dis redit politi al ompetitors. #n 2ovember 200", the %' government appointed a member of Transparen y #nternational, the %' member of parliament 4ulia %itera, as the government)s plenipotentiary for the struggle against orruption. . major debate on the effe tiveness of the legal me hanisms and the way lobbying is dealt with in %oland o urred when $7. a used some high!ranking %' members of giving in to the illegal demands of representatives of the gambling industry in order to impede a plan to raise e8isting ta8es on gambling ma hines. %rime 9inister Tusk immediately dismissed the two ministers involved but also the $7. dire tor 9arius0 /aminski. The latter was a used of overstepping his ompeten ies and instrumentali0ing the affair for %i* interests. . parliamentary ommittee of investigation was established and a dis ussion on hanging the law on lobbying developed.
Prosecution of office a.use

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1B

Ce jure there are no legal restri tions on ivil rightsL de fa to the prote tion of ivil rights against state and non!state a tors works pretty effe tively. #nfringements o ur, but very rarely. Torture and ruelty never happen in reality. 5owever, in 2009 it be ame evident that the $#. had established se ret torture prisons at an airbase in %oland. %olish authorities undertook a very sin ere investigation but it never fully revealed to what e8tent %olish offi ials tolerated or even supported the illegal pra ti es of the $#.. The justi e system)s main short oming is that the institutions established to defend iti0ens and punish violators are ineffe tive and sluggish. The situation has improved dramati ally sin e the %i*!led government was ousted from offi e. Their violations of some ivil rights &of homose8uals in parti ular( were obvious. 'n the other hand, a debate on erning pedophiles attra ted publi attention as %rime 9inister Tusk verbally atta ked them and proposed a law allowing the hemi al astration of onvi ted pedophiles, whi h passed parliament in fall 2009.

Ci0il ri)(ts

10

# Sta+i%ity o( ,emocratic Institutions

The 2009 2010 period was marked by a lear improvement in the way demo rati institutions fun tion in %oland, even a ounting for a short period of e8tremely un ooperative : ohabitation; between the %' government and %resident +e h /a 0ynski. %oliti al de isions are prepared and implemented in a ordan e with legitimate pro edures and by appropriate authorities. The effe tiveness of the major demo rati institutions was put to the test after the 10 .pril 2010 plane rash, when the president of the republi , most of the members of the armed!for es high ommand, deputy hairs of the parliament and many members of parliament died. #n these unusual and dramati ir umstan es, %oland)s demo rati institutions performed their fun tions smoothly and effi iently. The one short oming was the slowness and at times politi i0ation of the publi administration.

Performance of democratic institutions

10

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14

.lmost all important politi al a tors observe the onstitution and behave in a ordan e with demo rati rules. There is, however, one lear e8 eption, the main opposition party %i* and its leader /a 0y1ski. 2umerous e8amples lead to the on lusion that this party is be oming a lassi al anti!systemi party. The publi dis ourse of its leader, who laims %oland has yet to regain its independen e or that it is a :Herman?ussian ondominium; and his old! shouldering of the demo rati ally ele ted president, /omorowski, are only few e8amples of violations of the demo rati spirit and the rules of the game. 9oreover, notables in the %olish $atholi $hur h make far too many publi interventions revealing their distaste for liberal!demo rati values. 7oth phenomena depre iate the overall s ore of the ommitment to demo rati institutions in %oland by its main politi al and so ial a tors.

Commitment to democratic institutions

5 # $o%itica% and Socia% Integration

The %olish party system is both ideologi ally biased and far from stable, with shallow roots in so iety. #n 2009 2010 there were no parliamentary ele tions, but, between the 200< and 200" ele tions, ele toral volatility amounted to almost 2<E &%edersen #nde8(. 'ther indi ators of party system format point to a ertain institutionali0ation- Gra tionali0ation is at its lowest in two de ades &."0(, the effe tive number of parties is appro8imately three, the disproportionality between vote and seat shares is low &4.4E(, and the share of votes for parties that failed to enter parliament is only 4E & al ulations by ?adoslaw 9arkowski, a %olish politi al s ientist(. The lassJstrata roots of supporters of parti ular parties also flu tuate signifi antly. Three out of four parliamentary parties are rather programmati parties, although the support for them is still strongly an hored in identity and so io! ultural issues

Party system

rather than e onomi poli ies. 2evertheless, one party learly e8erts lientelisti features the %olish %easant %arty &%*+( whi h is by far the smallest one &appro8imately <E AE support(. The symboli so io ultural polari0ation is still onsiderable and marks the most de isive differen e between pro!=uropean %' and nationalist %i*. The parties also differ regarding their e onomi poli ies- %' is more liberal and pro!market, while %i* favors more state intervention. This divide is 3uite persistent in %oland, although in organi0ational terms the party system is still volatile.

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1<

The network and spe trum of %olish so ietal organi0ations is relatively ri h and dense numerous 2H's, so ial movements, so ial initiatives, trade unions, professional organi0ations and business representations are a tive in %olish publi and politi al life. 5owever, interest groups are less vigorous and numerous than in 6estern =urope and most of the groups are small, single!issue oriented organi0ations la king resour es. *in e early 1994 there has been a tripartite agreement between business representatives, trade unions and the government. The trade union se tor of this agreement has weakened, for two reasons. Girstly, trade union membership is low &around 1<E while in 9<E of enterprises there is no trade union at all( and the trade unions are not merito ra ies. 9oreover, the *olidarity trade union is far too open in its support of a single politi al party and as a onse3uen e is not onsidered to be an independent a tor. %oles herish demo ra y as an ideal, with over "0E laiming it is by far the best system invented so far. 5owever, the performan e of demo ra y in ontemporary %oland is evaluated less favorably &usually between 40E and <0E of adult %oles laim to be satisfiedL the indi ator flu tuates pretty signifi antly(. %oles are far more riti al when it omes to trusting institutions. 9ore than A0 E trust in harities and the ?ed $ross, but politi al parties end up at the bottom of the ladder with the trust of only 14E. 'ther politi al institutions fare only slightly better &parliament, 21EL trade unions, 2DEL government, B1EL ourts, 44E(. 5owever D0E of the %oles surveyed e8pressed trust in the =uropean >nion. . ording to a re ent survey by the $enter for the *tudy of %ubli 'pinion, 2<E of the respondents approve the performan e of the parliament, whereas about D0E onsider it to be doing a poor job. %resident /omorowski is evaluated mu h more favorably <BE approve his performan e, whereas 20E laim he is doing a poor job. %olish so iety has long been hara teri0ed by the high level of trust within the ir les of e8tended family and friends, and by bottomup organi0ation for informal a tivities, whi h dates ba k to ommunist and opposition times. >nfortunately it is not a ompanied by a similarly strong relationship within formal networks, although numerous autonomous groups, asso iations and organi0ations e8ist.

Interest )roups

Appro0al of democr acy

+ocial capital

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1D

$omparative resear h on so ial apital, as defined by the =uropean *o ial *urvey, shows %oland to be among the ountries with the lowest so ial apital.

II "conomic Transformation
6 # )e-e% o( Socioeconomic ,e-e%o&ment *o ial e8 lusion and poverty e8ist but are marginal phenomena. The Hini oeffi ient for %oland is about B< &200<(. 'ther indi ators, in parti ular life e8pe tan y &"D(, 5C# &0."9, whi h ranks %oland forty!first in the world(, and pretty impressive edu ation figures lo ate %oland among the top of the 7T# :transformation; ountries. The so ial e8 lusion that does e8ist is onne ted to a deep urbanrural divide and thus is stru tural in hara ter, even though re ent development, often aided by =.>. stru tural funds, is 3ui kly filling the gap. Duestion
+core

+ocioecono mic .arriers 8

.conomic indicators

20 0= ; mn < < < E2F#2 68 2E 96

20 08 F29E0 F1 E# =1

20 09 E#0FF 16 #8 82

20 10 69 3.9 2.7 "

6:P 6:P )ro&t( Inflation %CPI' ?nemployment

Corei)n direct in0estment "-port )ro&t( Import )ro&t( Current account .alance

< of < < ; mn

F6 91 1 #

28 =1 80 #E9F= 0 E -

26E99 0 E -

1=1FF 0

#0 6 12

" 21873 .0

1.9 1 2. 1 3.

Pu.lic de.t "-ternal de.t Total de.t ser0ice

< of ; mn ; mn

F -

5 " "

.conomic indicators Cas( surplus or deficit Ta- re0enue 6o0ernment consumption Pu.lic e-pnd on edu Pu.lic e-pnd on (ealt( RG: e-penditure 1ilitary e-penditure < of 6:P < of 6:P < of 6:P < of 6:P < of 6:P < of 6:P < of 6:P

200= 1 18 # 1= 9 E9 6E 0 F= 20

20 08 # 18 # 18 F =0 0 61 1=

20 09 6 16 # 18 E =1 18

2010 " " 18.9 " " " "

+ources$ T(e Borld Ban*4 Borld :e0elopment Indicators 2011 | International 1onetary Cund %I1C'4 Borld "conomic Hutloo* 2011 | +toc*(olm International Pease Researc( Institute %+IPRI'4 1ilitary "-penditure :ata.ase 2011

7 # /rgani0ation o( t1e Mar2et and 3om&etition

Curing the period under review, the %olish state upheld the fundamental market rules of the game for the e onomy- .ll players in the %olish market have e3ual han es in prin iple. The Tusk government embarked on serious reforms on erning the reation of a business!friendly environment, but many of their endeavors did not work out as planned. This failure was partly be ause of the finan ial risis, even though %oland remained the only =uropean ountry with positive e onomi growth in 2009 &1."E(. The worldwide risis impa ted %oland later, mainly in terms of its poor budgetary figures. *ome elements of the anti! risis pa kage implemented in early 2009 resulted in a growing budget defi it and
delayed reform of the so ial se tor, while failing to stimulate the e onomy.

1ar*et.ased competiti on 9

%oland has omprehensive and effe tive anti!monopolisti poli ies. $urrently the %olish legal provisions on erning these issues are in line with =.>. regulations. Goreign trade is liberali0ed with low tariffs. *tate intervention is limited. Goreign trade is liberali0ed. There is very limited state intervention as %oland observes =.>. and 6.T.'. regulations. The finan ial risis has influen ed both imports and e8ports. The value of the former was down by almost 14E in 2009, of the latter by almost 11E. GC# in 2010 amounted to almost M10 billion with many strategi investments, mainly in two key se tors- business operation enters and the
motor industry.

Antimonopoly policy

10
>i.eraliIation of forei)n trade 10

The %olish banking system is well developed and organi0ed in a ordan e with world standards be ause more than half of the banking market in %oland is in the hands of foreign institutions. Curing the global finan ial risis the

%olish banking system

proved mu h healthier than many of its 6estern ounterparts, partly

Ban*in) system 10

e8perts laim be ause of its relatively onservative poli ies. $apital markets are open to foreign apital.

8 # 3urrency and $rice Sta+i%ity

The %'!led government treats inflation ontrol very seriously. #n 2009 it was about B.9E and in 2010 ! 2.<E. #nflation has remained fairly stable during the last de ade, keeping below 4E. The same applies to urren y e8 hange, apart from a short period in 2009 when the %olish urren y was depre iated towards the euro. The ratio is stable at about 1-4. The e onomi and finan ial risis aused the postponement of the introdu tion of the euro in %oland. #t is unlikely to ome into for e before 201<. The government)s lear goals are the promotion of ma roe onomi stability and the fight against fis al debts. 2evertheless, the worldwide e onomi risis affe ted %oland, albeit to a lesser e8tent than other =.>. ountries. #n 200A the government introdu ed a bill aimed at reforming publi finan es in order to meet =.>. re3uirements by 2011 and in Gebruary 2009 an anti! risis pa kage was unveiled to fight the global finan ial risis. . ording to a %olish business information servi e, publi debt has grown from 4"E of HC% in 200A to <1E in 2009 and to <<.<E in 2010. Hovernment onsumption fell to 1D.4E in 2009 from 19.4E in 200A. . ording to the =uropean 7ank for ?e onstru tion and Cevelopment &=7?C( 2010 transition report, %oland)s budget defi it was ".1E of HC% in 2009 and similarly high in 2010. >nemployment has risen from ".1E, to A.2E and then 9.DE of the labor for e in 200A, 2009 and 2010 respe tively. This be omes or rather remains a real so ial problem for the under!2< generation, for whom the above figures limb to 1"E, 21E and 24E respe tively. &*our e =urostat(
9 # $ri-ate $ro&erty

Anti-inflation 2 fore- policy

10

1acrosta.ility

%roperty rights and regulations are well defined and enfor ed. The time needed to register property in %oland is well below the average &1D days versus D2 in other ountries under s rutiny in the 7T#(. 5owever, a ording to the latest 6orld 7ank :Coing 7usiness; report, the number of pro edures needed to do it is well above average 10 in %oland and si8 on average elsewhere. %rivate ompanies are onsidered as the foremost engine of e onomi development and are given proper legal safeguards. #t takes si8 days and si8 pro edures to

Property ri)(ts

10

Pri0ate enterprise

10

register and start a new business,, whereas the average for the remaining 7T# ountries is B2 days and eight pro edures &sour e- latest 6orld 7ank :Coing 7usiness; report(.

10 # 'egime

4e%(are +ocial safety nets

The %olish government)s so ial safety measures are omprehensive and well! fo used. +ife e8pe tan y at birth is "D years, whi h lo ates the ountry among the top new demo ra ies. The publi e8penditure on health was 4.DE in 200". 5owever, the health are system is hara teri0ed by high debts of about MB billion and does not guarantee suffi ient supply. The major reform pa kage proposed by the %'!led government was vetoed by %resident /a 0ynski at the end of 200A. 6ork began to rewrite the proposed reforms. *o ial safety as a whole is well developed, however onsiderable parts of the population are still at risk of poverty. There are three pillars to the pension system, from publi to purely private, whi h do not fun tion as effe tively as one might have predi ted at their implementation in 1999. The parliament passed a law redu ing ostly early retirement options after over oming the initial veto of the state president. %' is also dis ussing a reform of the ostly pension system for farmers &/?>*( but its oalition partner %*+ opposes these attempts. %overty among the elderly is among the lowest in =>. The urrent %'!led government has laun hed several poli ies aimed at a hieving e3uality of opportunity. There are also many institutions that work to redu e so ial ine3ualities. .lmost all iti0ens have e3ual a ess to edu ation and publi offi e. #llitera y is none8istent. %roblems remain with e3ual a ess to well!paid jobs women earn barely three 3uarters of men)s earnings. Iiolen e against women, though de reasing, remains a pretty widespread problem. 'n the other hand, the ratio of female to male enrollment at tertiary level is about 140 in 2009. The new government has reestablished the agen y for gender e3uality, whi h was dissolved by the %i* government, but e8perts omplain that this offi e la ks autonomy. The treatment of homose8uals and other minorities has improved signifi antly sin e the oming to power of %'. Cespite these improvements, %oland has not yet signed the =.>. anti!dis rimination dire tive and was thus referred to the =uropean $ourt of 4usti e in 9ay 2009 and 9ay 2010. #n ' tober 2010, the *ejm ena ted a law on e3ual treatment, whi h was sent to the *enate for dis ussion.
11 # .conomic $er(ormance

"/ual opportunity

There were positive as well as negative symptoms in %oland)s e onomy during the period under review. HC% growth was the highest of any =.>. ountry in 2009 at

Hutput stren)t(

1."E &sour e- =urostat( and in 2010 was one of the highest at B.AE &sour eL =urostat(. The trade balan e is relatively favorableL the balan e of payments is negative, but the defi it is mu h lower than the => average. %ubli debt again, relatively low ompared to other =.>. ountries nevertheless is up from 4"E in 200A to about &sour es differ( <<E in 2010 &=7?C- 4".2E for 200A and <0.9E for 2009(. This rise is attributed to the global e onomi risis. 2egative phenomena also in lude the balan e of the budget &in 2009 net lending amounted to ".2E of HC%( and the inflation is higher than the =.>. average but de reasing from about 4.0E in 2009 to about 2."E in 2010 &=7?C- 4.BE for 100A, B.AE for 2009 and 2.4E for 2010(. 9oreover the rate of employment is fairly low in %oland at about <9E in 2009 ompared to appro8imately D<E in the => in 2009 &sour e=urostat(. #n 4anuary 2011, the unemployment rate rose to 12.BE from 11.DE in 4uly 2010 &sour e- www.tradinge onomi s. om(.

12

# "n0ironmen tal policy

=nvironmental on erns are treated seriously by the %' government. =nvironmentally ompatible growth, espe ially one that aimed at avoiding the e8ternali0ation of osts, is taken into a ount at institutional level in both ma roe onomi and mi roe onomi de isions. #nternational agreements are omplied with. The prin iple of sustainable development is provided for by .rti le < of the onstitution, and was taken seriously during the =.>. a ession pro ess be ause %oland had to implement orresponding legal standards. There are several established institutions and legal provisions that provide environmentally ompatible growth. Gor instan e, there is a legal re3uirement a ording to whi h %oland has to enumerate all enterprises that might have a signifi ant impa t on environment. .s a onse3uen e, if ertain types of enterprise want to onstru t a new site or broaden their produ tion they must re eive a permit to address the impa t the new a tivity will have on the environment. >sually this means that an =nvironmental #mpa t .ssessment must be ondu ted, whi h in many instan es is timely and ostly. The list for onsideration omprises 1<A different types of business, in luding, among others- %ower stations, railways, roads, airports, fa tories, buildings higher than five meters et . Cespite these institutional provisions and the Tusk government)s stated priority of investing in lean energy, %oland still has the lowest share of renewable energies among up oming ountries. #t is unwilling to support the =>)s $'2 emission trade on ept be ause of its oal industry. There are also plans to onstru t a nu lear power station in 6estern %oland.

Curing the period under review, the urrent Tusk government has hanged the primary edu ation system, lowering the s hool entry age from seven to si8. *e ondary edu ation has been e8tended for one year and the first improvements in

"ducation policy 2 RG:

international assessments are visible. .t university level more privati0ation, effi ien y and ommer iali0ation is pra ti ed. The resear h and te hnology se tor still lags behind most =.>. ountries. #nstitutions of edu ation, ?NC are numerous and signifi ant in publi life, although unfortunately somewhat in onsistent, with visible defi its in ?NC in parti ular. #nvestment in edu ation and training is rather low at 4.9E of HC% in 200", as is investment in ?NC at .DAE of HC% in 2009 &sour e- =urostat(. #n 200A the government initiated a reform to improve the s ien e and edu ation system by 201<. 'ne of the aims is to boost ?NC spending to 2E by 201B.

Transformation 1ana)ement

I >e0el of :ifficulty

*tru tural onstraints on governan e are low. 'n the one hand %oland has a well! edu ated workfor e and fairly well!developed infrastru ture &e8 ept for sele ted areas in eastern %oland, where massive investment is still ne essary(. The ountry also has institutional stability that reates favorable onditions for the government. =.>. membership has fostered the stru tural framework for governmental a tivities. 'n the other hand, the re ent world e onomi and finan ial risis has had a dire effe t on the ountry)s e onomy and state finan es. #n 2010 %oland also suffered a natural disaster when half the ountry was flooded for several weeks. %oland)s traditionally strong ivil so iety dates from the ommunist period, although only in an informal :underground; form. $ompared to the deeply rooted fun tions of ivil so iety in established demo ra ies, traditions of formal ivil so iety are relatively moderate. The number of 2H's is fairly low in %oland, as is engagement in publi affairs in omparison to 6estern =urope. #n the period under s rutiny, %olish ivil so iety a tivities in 2H's in reased in omparison to previous years. #n 2010, 2AE of the adult population spent free time on a tivities for at least one 2H'. The same indi ator for 199A 200A period varied between 20E and 24 E &see- $7'* /omunikat, :.ktywnos %olakOw w organi0a ja h obywatelski h w lata h 199A 2010;, 7*J1DJ2010(. This phenomenon oe8ists with high level of alienation from politi s, oupled with low trust in politi al institutions and parties in parti ular. ?e ent lo al and =uropean %arliament ele tions indi ate a growth of appro8imately <E in turnout ompared to previous ele tions.

+tructu ral constra ints

Ci0il society tradition s

=thni onfli t does not e8ist within %oland. Ceep politi al divides date ba k to the ele tion of 200<, the vi tory of %i* and to the time prior to this, be ause the %i*)s vi tory was related to e8isting so ietal onfli ts on the issue of orruption, on how to deal with the so ialist past. #t was also related to the debate as to whether %oland should espouse a nationalist or a =uropean national identity. 5owever, these onfli ts enormously intensified between %i* and %' after the 2010 plane rash in *molensk and %i* andidate 4aroslaw /a 0ynski)s loss in the presidential ra e.

Conflict intensity

II 1ana)ement Performance
1 # Steering 3a&a+i%ity
Duestion +core

The government under Conald Tusk is learly ommitted to onstitutional demo ra y and a so ially responsive market e onomy. The government is apable of prioriti0ing and organi0ing its poli ies a ording to strategi aims. .mong the most important poli ies were in reasing the employment rate to over D0E, introdu ing a flat ta8 rate, and the adoption of the euro. .mong the more vague poli y goals were health are reform, fighting orruption, and fostering de entrali0ation and lo al government. 9oreover, the government has prepared a report entitled %oland 20B0, whi h is a plan and vision for the ountry over the ne8t two de ades. 9any of the planned poli ies were hated or seriously delayed by the e onomi risis. #n this une8pe ted global situation priorities had to hange the government had to fo us on reforms that were e8pe ted to reate savings in the budget. These in luded the reform of the pension system, the professionali0ation of the army and health are reform. The period under s rutiny should be divided into two stages- That under the presiden y of +e h /a 0ynski and another under the presiden y of 7ronislaw /omorowski. %resident /a 0ynski, a very partisan president, had effe tively been blo king many governmental initiatives, poli ies and reforms, either by using his veto powers or threatening to use them. *ome reforms had to be postponed due to the e onomi risis &e.g., reform of the state budget for preparation for the introdu tion of euro(.

PrioritiIation

Implementation

The urrent Tusk government demonstrated a fa ility for omple8 learning as it was operated fle8ibly and able to hange some poli ies while implementing innovative ones. This applies mainly to infrastru ture &roads(, health are and the pension system. The learning pro ess is visible in the way the government uses =.>. funds. Hovernmental agen ies and ministries rapidly learned the new pro edures stipulated by =>. #n many fields the government has unveiled innovative and fle8ible approa hes to poli y implementation.

Policy learnin)

15 # 'esource .((iciency

Thus far the %' government has made relatively effi ient use of its administrative personnel. There are no reports or indi ations of unjustified dismissals orJand politi ally motivated re ruitment. There are, however, reports of unjustifiably high

"fficient use of assets

e8penditures, espe ially at lo al administrative level. $ompetitive open re ruitment is the norm for the majority of publi positions. The %olish administration)s effi ien y in using budget resour es has been troubled sin e the finan ial risis- %ubli debt has in reased &4"E of HC% in 200A, <1E in 2009 and <<.<E in 2010 a ording to =urostat(, whi h is still below the average level in => 2" &"4E of HC% in 2009(. %oland has made minor deviations from the planned budget e8penditures. #n 2009 it rea hed AAE of the planned defi it and in 2010, A<E &sour e- ministry of finan e(. The effi ien y of its administrative organi0ation is mi8ed. #t is fairly de entrali0ed and lo al governments enjoy legal and finan ial autonomy. 5owever, de entrali0ation sometimes reates problems. +o al governments are obliged to provide publi servi es &e.g., primary and se ondary edu ation, lo al roads, transportation et .(, but 3uite often la k relevant resour es to a omplish all tasks. #nstitutions and pro edures have been established to reform and moderni0e publi administrationL for instan e, ministries and government departments arry out several proje ts within :'perational %rogramme ! 5uman $apital; and, its fifth priority :Hood Hovernan e.; 'ne of the fundamental aims of these proje ts is to in rease apa ities of publi administration in law! making and the 3uality of servi es offered by the state. Gurthermore, an

There are several enters within the government that propose and implement often ontradi tory poli ies. The main a8is of onfli ting poli ies lies between the ministry of finan e and the ministry of labor and so ial poli y. . lot of improvement is also needed in oordination among the ministry of finan e and ministry of regional development. *ometimes onfli ting poli y ideas arise be ause there is a spe ial advisory board for the prime minister with a hairperson who is an influential figure in strategi planning 9i hal 7oni. Curing the reviewed period, Tthe urrent Tusk government is was also de fa to a oalition, and naturally the liberal!right %' hads different poli y priorities to the %*+. 2otwithstanding these short omings, so far the government has managed to oordinate its poli ies in a fairly oherent way, avoiding open onfli ts andJor delays. #t also onsults with the main so ial partners and 2H's. Gor e8ample, the state budget is taken to onsultation with the trade unions and employers) asso iations before being passed in the parliament. The following integrity me hanisms e8ist and fun tion- .uditing of state spending, regulation of party finan e, iti0en and media a ess to information, a ountability of offi eholders, a transparent publi pro urement system. 9oreover, a spe ial institution, the $entral .nti! orruption 7ureau &$7.( was established in 200D to prevent orruption in the publi and private se tors. The results are so far mi8ed,

Policy coordina tion

Anticorruption policy

however. $omparative indi ators show orruption is still one of %oland)s major problems. #n addition, during an affair involving politi ians lobbied by the gambling industry, a onfli t between $7. and the plenipotentiary o urred and 2H's riti i0ed the latter for being too passive in the pro ess of drafting a new law on lobbying.

16 # 5ui%ding

3onsensus" Consensus on )oals

9ost %olish politi al parties and other important publi a tors agree on demo rati prin iples and a market e onomy. #n pra ti e, however, the main opposition party, %i* learly favors mu h more politi al influen e on the e onomy and is definitely in favor of a strong state at the e8pense of ivil so iety. ?e ent a tions &following the plane rash in *molensk in 2010( have highlighted its entrali0ation tenden ies and disrespe t for liberal demo rati norms and pro edure.

Gollowing the removal of two populist and 8enophobi parties, the *amoobrona and +eague of %olish Gamilies &+%?(, from parliament in the 200" ele tions, it seemed for a short time that anti!demo rati for es, however moderate, had been removed from %olish politi al life. >nfortunately, in 2009J2010 %oles witnessed a growing anti!demo rati mood reated by %i* &disrespe t for demo rati institutions, laims that %oland is :not a free ountry,; alling %rime 9inister Tusk a :traitor,; disregard for the demo rati ally ele ted president, to name just a few(. Gortunately %i* is the only problemati ase in the %olish politi al arena. %i* learly aims to destabili0e the ountry and its institutions. There is another potent publi a tor whose anti!demo rati redentials are nothing new- The %olish $atholi $hur h. ?e ently some $atholi bishops de ided to a tively influen e the ountry)s politi s to the detriment of the 3uality of demo ra y. The %olish $atholi $hur h is divided on this issue, but the hur h representatives openly 3uestioning the merits of liberal demo ra y are numerous enough &and influential enough( to make their a tivities as problemati . Thus far, %oland)s problems lie in deep so iopoliti al divisions whi h may soon turn into fro0en leavages. The %' politi al leadership did start their parliamentary and governmental term with an effort to redu e the tensions within %olish so iety and politi s that were elevated under the %i* government. :Trust offensive; was one of the most fre3uently 3uoted slogans and real poli y obje tives of the %' government. 9oreover, the hief slogan in the /omorowski)s presidential ampaign was :building re on iliation.; The main opposition party, %i* not only took no a tion to prevent in reasing divisions, but even embarked on many a tions that enhan ed tensions, divisions and polari0ation.

Antidemocratic actors

Clea0a)e 2 conflict mana)e ment

%olish politi s were devoid of poli y ontent. #n the se ond half of 2010, the %i*)s atta k on the legitima y of the ele tions was a lear assault on the demo rati rules of the game, the demo rati ally ele ted government and the president. The intensity of the politi al onfli t e8 eeded by far everything that %oles had been a ustomed to in the last two de ades. #n on lusion- the government has limited possibilities to ameliorate the situation as the opposition party is simply un ooperative and refuses to ollaborate.

The %olish politi al leadership assigns an important role to ivil so iety a tors in deliberating and determining poli ies. .lmost all reform proposals thus far introdu ed by the %' government, be they in the health se tor, s ien e, lo al poli ies or e onomi matters, have been onsulted in advan e with major interest groups. 5owever, the day!to!day involvement of interest organi0ations in the pro ess of bill drafting or poli y on eptuali0ation before the parliamentary stage is often merely formalisti , due to the limited merito rati ompeten es of many of the so ial organi0ations. 9oreover, some parliamentary ommittee negotiations are often dominated by few spe ial interests. The %olish politi al leadership has pursued re on iliation of histori a ts of injusti e, but puts less emphasis on this topi that the previous %i* government. The %' government supports the e8isting regulations under whi h offi ials who assume ertain publi posts must de lare whether they ollaborated with se ret poli e or intelligen e servi es in the ommunist past. $andidates for offi e are not punished nor &de jure( do their han es for being nominated de rease if they admit ollaboration. The politi al leadership also supports the a tivities of the #nstitute of 2ational 9emory &#%2(, whi h has made ommunist se ret servi e files a essible to iti0ens sin e 2000. .s this institution was highly instrumentali0ed during the %i*!government, the Tusk government has tried to reform it to allow more a ess to the ar hives and to make it less politi i0ed. .fter the amendment was passed, %i* referred it to the onstitutional tribunal.

Ci0il society participa tion

Reconciliation

17 # Internationa% 3oo&eration

The politi al leadership of %oland makes well!fo used use of international aid in order to implement its long!term development strategy. #nternational aid means =.>. stru tural funds. The amount of finan ial assistan e oming from the =.>. stru tural funds has grown enormously sin e %oland)s a ession. *o far, however, the effe tive utili0ation of the funds available is not perfe t. The urrent %'!led government was onsidered redible and reliable by its international ommunity partners. 'ne of the urrent government)s major goals was regaining this international redibility, as the previous %i* government had behaved

"ffecti0e use of support

Credi.ility

un ooperatively and made many enemies a ross =urope in its international relations. %oland)s position in => was enhan ed by the fa t that %oland is to assume =.>. presiden y in 4uly 2011 and two %olish politi ians have assumed important positions in =.>. stru tures. 4er0y 7u0ek is urrently the president of the =uropean %arliament, and 4anus0 +ewandowski is the =uropean $ommissioner for Ginan ial %rogramming and 7udget one of the most influential positions in the =>. 9oreover, %oland is an initiator of and played a key role in the =astern %artnership, an =.>. proje t aimed at improving politi al and e onomi relations with the => of si8 post!*oviet states, some of them of strategi importan e- >kraine, 7elarus, 9oldova, .0erbaijan, .rmenia and Heorgia. #n terms of e onomy, %oland seems to be a redible partner both within the =>, 6T' and globally. This was further emented during the e onomi risis when %oland pretty effe tively avoided re ession and enjoyed one of the highest => HC% growths in
re ent years as well as during the whole period sin e the transformation.

The %' government a tively and su essfully engages in international relations. #t parti ularly fo uses on regional ooperation with eastern neighbors +ithuania, 7elarus and >kraine. #n order to integrate these ountries as well as the $au asian republi s with =urope, %oland, together with *weden, initiated the =astern %artnership and promotes >kraine)s => membership prospe ts. %oland has improved its relations with Hermany, its main e onomi and politi al partner, under the Tusk administration. $ooperation with Hermany and Gran e in the framework of the :6eimar Triangle; was revived. The a tivities of the 6eimar Triangle were suppressed during the previous %i* government at the behest of the then president +e h /a 0y1ski. %oland)s relationship with ?ussia has also been high on %rime 9inister Tusk)s agenda. The %olish?ussian Hroup for Ciffi ult #ssues has been very a tive in the period under review. The group is omposed of %olish and ?ussian e8perts and s ientists designated by both ountries to solve ompli ated histori al and ontemporary problems. The group serves as an advisory body to both governments. The visits of top politi ians of both ountries have intensified. %rime 9inister %utin took part in the seventieth anniversary ommemorations of the Herman atta k on %oland in 19B9, as well as the eremonies marking the seventieth anniversary of the /atyn massa re. 'n both o asions %utin met %rime 9inister Tusk. .fter the *molensk rash parado8i ally and ironi ally relations between %oland and ?ussia improved even further. 5owever, the worsened again after ?ussia published its report on the auses of the presidential plane rash. %oland did not a ept ?ussia)s one!sided interpretation of the auses of the rash.

Re)ional cooperat ion 9

+trate)ic Hutloo* The main issue for the near future of %olish politi s is the battle that is going to be fought at the 2011 fall parliamentary ele tions over the %oles) histori al and so ial knowledge and memory. The last five years were dominated by the attempts of the %i* under its leader 4arosPaw /a 0y1ski to redefine %olish ontemporary history, from the round!table agreement onwards. The real hallenges of e onomi reforms &the e8tremely signifi ant and threatening budget defi it and pensions funds( are unfortunately not going to be the main topi of the ampaign. #n this period one would e8pe t the state %resident 7ronisPaw /omorowski to play the role of a signifi ant on iliatory a tor, both in terms of influen ing the dis ourse as well as being an institutional pillar of %olish demo ra y. The out ome of the fall 2011 ele tions is unpredi table be ause the two main parties) support does not differ mu h. #t is possible to reliably predi t that %oland will for a third time in a row ontinue to have more or less the same party au uses represented in the parliament, whi h shows that some organi0ational stability o urs. *till, in ase of %i* vi tory in the fall 2011 ele tions, a prolonged period of adversarial politi s should be e8pe ted, for two reasons. Girstly, %i* leaders will try to implement their traditional politi al offerings, whi h means attempts to violate the onstitutional provisions. 5owever, it is also unlikely that %i* will win a onstitutional majority that allows them to formally hange the onstitution. *e ondly, the state president is from the %' and will stay in offi e for most of the ne8t parliamentary term, most likely resulting in a very hostile ohabitation. This s enario is nevertheless less likely than ontinuity &in one form or another( of the urrent %'!led government. The most pressing tasks for the future are a reform of fis al poli ies and of the pension and health are systems. Cepending on the general e onomi situation in =urope &the %olish e onomy is very sensitive to Herman e onomi development(, unemployment and inflation might also be ome issues of immediate urgen y. .nother major field of on ern is edu ation and ?NC, espe ially the moderni0ation of the link between s ien e and industry. .t this point it is un lear whether %oland will be able to join =uro0one, although the politi al will is there, even if the population at large is be oming more euroskepti al than in the pre! risis phase. #n any ase, for this to happen a lear a eleration of fis al stability poli ies is re3uired. The introdu tion of the euro also re3uires a onstitutional amendment and thus a 3ualified majority, whi h is to say that a onsensus!seeking politi al limate is ne essary.