Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2010

Astra Agro Lestari

2Q results likely to prompt further downgrades Remain UW, cut PT to Rp14,500
2Q results preview: We expect 2QFY10E net profits (due on 28 after market) of Rp491bn, down about 11% y/y, but up sharply from 1Q. AALI has missed estimates for each of the last three quarters, and risks could be on the downside. Our 1HFY10E PAT represents 33% of consensus FY10E profits, suggesting downside risk to forecasts even if profits are somewhat higher than we forecast in 2Q. Cutting forecasts, consensus appears optimistic: AALIs 1HFY10 CPO output declined by 5.7% y/y. We are therefore reducing FY10E volumes by a further 2% (down 6.2% y/y) and building in higher cost trends as seen so far this year. The net impact is a 9% decline in FY10E EPS. Our new EPS forecasts are 23% below consensus. PT cut to Rp14,500, retain Underweight: 2Q results could precipitate further revisions lower, and we therefore recommend selling ahead of results. The stock has fallen by 23% over the last three months, but we see more underperformance ahead, as earnings remain at risk. AALI trades at 12x 12M forward consensus EPS. If we apply the same multiple to our own lower-than-Street forecasts, we arrive at a price target of Rp14,500, which we set as our new June 2011 PT. This is consistent with our DCF valuation of AALI, based on a M$2,450 longterm CPO price, 16% cost of equity, and 5% terminal growth rate. Medium-term risks - acquisitions or large dividend payouts: Apart from commodity prices, the medium-term risk we see to our valuation and PT comes from cash flows. AALI operates at a 30% ROE & ploughs back 35% of profits, implying a sustainable growth rate of 10.5%. Clearly, with a terminal growth of 5% as assumed AALI may generate substantial surplus cash flows to reinvest, which could result in a higher payout ratio or M&A possibilities. Either of these could provide upside to valuations and, hence, our PT if they materialize.
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT (Reuters: AALI.JK, Bloomberg: AALI IJ)
Rp in mn, year-end Dec Revenue (Rp bn) Net Profit (Rp bn) Asia EPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) Revenue growth (%) EPS growth (%) ROCE ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield

Underweight
AALI.JK, AALI IJ Price: Rp18,550

Price Target: Rp14,500

Previous: Rp19,000

Indonesia Plantations Aditya Srinath, CFA

AC

(62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia

Simone Yeoh
(60-3) 2270-4710 simone.x.yeoh@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (18146-X)

Ying-Jian Chan
(65) 6882-2378 ying.jian.yj.chan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited
Price Performance
24,000 Rp 20,000 16,000
Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

AALI.JK share price (Rp) JCI (rebased)

YTD Abs Rel -22.2% -37.9%

1m -9.7% -15.0%

3m -23.3% -26.1%

12m 10.4% -30.0%

FY07A FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E 5,961 8,161 7,424 7,585 8,073 8,811 Shares O/S (mn) 1,973 2,349 1,660 1,775 1,955 2,163 Market Cap (Rp mn) 1,253.17 1,491.48 1,054.31 1,126.90 1,241.42 1,373.42 Market Cap ($ mn) 813 503 658 732 807 893 Price (Rp) 58.6% 36.9% -9.0% 2.2% 6.4% 9.1% Date Of Price 150.7% 19.0% -29.3% 6.9% 10.2% 10.6% Free float (%) 81.2% 72.7% 45.6% 36.2% 35.6% 35.7% Avg Daily Volume (mn) 58.0% 51.0% 29.2% 27.1% 27.2% 27.3% Avg Daily Value (Rp bn) 14.8 12.4 17.6 16.5 14.9 13.5 Avg Daily Value ($ mn) 7.2 5.7 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.4 JCI 9.2 8.0 10.0 10.4 9.5 8.5 Exchange Rate 4.4% 2.7% 3.5% 3.9% 4.3% 4.8% Fiscal Year End

1,575 29,211,520 3,228 18,550 15 Jul 10 20.0% 0.72 37.29 4.12 2,981 9,049 Dec

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 July 2010

Company Description Astra Agro Lestari is the largest plantation company listed in Indonesia. AALI grows oil palm in estates across Indonesia, and accrues 98% of its revenues from Palm Oil and related products. It accounts for approximately 5% of Indonesia's total CPO output. The company is 80% owned by Astra International and is part of the Jardine Matheson group.

P&L sensitivity metrics (FY10E)

Sales volume growth assumption Impact of each 5% CPO Average Selling price (Rp/Kg) Impact of each 1% CPO Production Cost (Rp/kg) Impact of each 5% Fresh Fruit Bunch Yield (T/Ha) Impact of each 10%
Source: J. P. Morgan estimates.

EBITDA impact (%) -0.9% 7.20% 6,300 1.80% 3230 3.60% 19.6 15.40%

EPS impact (%) 7.60% 1.70% 3.80% 14.60%

Price target and valuation analysis

FY09 ex-Factory Cost Structure/T CPO

Our June 2011 price target is set using a DCF methodology. We use a 9.5% risk-free rate for Indonesia and assume a 1.23 beta (based on Bloomberg Data), yielding a 16.3% cost of equity. Our model assumes that AALI grows its acreage 4% and generates 40% operating margin over the long term with a 25% tax rate. We have changed our terminal growth rate to 5% from 13%, reflecting the slower pace of expansion.

Risk free rate: Market risk premium: Beta: Net Debt/equity: Cost of Equity Terminal g:

9.5% 5.5% 1.23 -29% 16.3% 5.0%

Source: Company Data.

At our price target, AALI would trade at 12.6x FY10E PER and a 7.8x FY10E EV/EBITDA. AALI's beta has risen over time, along with CPO price volatility. Our PT implicitly discounts CPO at M$2,450/T.
J. P. Morgan Consensus 1,462 1,653 1,758

EPS: J.P. Morgan vs. consensus

FY10E FY11E FY12E 1,127 1,241 1,373

Source: J. P. Morgan, Bloomberg BEST estimates.

Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 July 2010

2Q results preview AALI reported that 1H CPO output was lower by 5.7% to 471 kMT. We assume that 2Q output was completely sold (i.e., almost 100 kMT in June compared to 70 kMT in each of the previous two months). Malaysian CPO prices averaged a little over M$2520/MT in 2Q. We also forecast that the increase in volumes q/q should result in lower per unit costs and assume cost per unit of palm product declined by 9% q/q. With these assumptions, we expect 2QFY10E PAT to be 11% lower y/y but sharply higher q/q. We have erred in overestimating profits in each of the last three quarters, and risks could be on the downside.
Table 1: Astra Agro Lestari - 2Q FY10E Results Preview
Rp Bn Total revenues Gross profit (inc Depn) Cash Operating Costs EBITDA Operating profit Interest Expense Interest Income Operating PBT Plasma Related Costs Other Income/Expense Forex Gains/Losses PBT Tax Provision Net profit Minority Interest Consolidated Net Profits EBITDA % Gross Margin %
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.

1QFY10 1,633 561 1,132 501 435 4 10 441 (3) (17) (19) 403 119 284 (12) 272 30.7% 34.4%

2QFY10E 1,880 799 1,146 734 668 4 9 673 (3) 10 (2) 678 169 508 (18) 491 39.0% 42.5%

% y/y -11.7% -19.9% -4.1% -21.5% -23.7% 1890.0% -38.0% -24.3% 63.9% 59.5% -97.1% -17.6% -32.2% -11.2% -12.6% -11.1%

% q/q 15.1% 42.3% 1.3% 46.4% 53.5% 8.1% -9.1% 52.5% 6.1% -160.4% -89.0% 68.3% 42.9% 78.9% 45.5% 80.4%

2QFY09 2,129 997 1,195 935 875 0 15 889 (2) 6 (71) 822 250 572 (20) 552 43.9% 46.8%

Downside risks to full-year earnings if results are as we expect If 2Q pans out as we expect, 1HFY10E net profits would stand at 33% of consensus FY10E EPS, suggesting substantial risk to estimates, unless we see a significant ramp up in either output or CPO prices in 2H. We expect CPO to remain range bound, with some risk of minor near-term downside.
Figure 1: CPO Near Month Futures Prices
M$/T

4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 J-08

Source: Bloomberg.

S-08

D-08

M-09

J-09

S-09

D-09

M-10

J-10

Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 July 2010

Earnings revised lower, we expect the Street to follow We adjust our earnings forecasts for Astra Agro incorporating the slightly worsethan-expected drip in volumes (cut by 2%). We also adjust our cost estimates for operating leverage, and incorporating trends that we expect to see in 1H results. Overall, the impact is a 9-12% downward revision to FY10E/FY11E EPS
Table 2: Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Rp Bn (except EPS) JPM New 7,585 2,649 2,498 1,775 1,127 FY10E JPM old 7,737 2,892 2,743 1,949 1,238 % Var -2.0% -8.4% -8.9% -8.9% -8.9% JPM New 8,073 2,868 2,752 1,955 1,241 FY11E JPM old 8,515 3,245 3,136 2,228 1,415 % var -5.2% -11.6% -12.3% -12.3% -12.3%

Revenues EBITDA Pretax profit Net profit (adj) EPS

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Further downside to the stock price likely Our new forecasts are 23% below consensus, and we believe that Street earnings estimates, which have been drifting lower, could see further cuts after 2Q results are released (probably after market close on 28 July). AALI, which has declined by 23% over the last three months, trades at 12x 12-month forward consensus earnings but at over 15x JPME EPS. If the market accepts our view on earnings, and the stock continues to trade at 12x forward earnings, we see a downside risk to the stock price to about Rp14,500 or so.
Figure 2: AALI 12M forward P/E band (on JPM Forecasts)
Rp

Figure 3: AALI 12M forward P/E band (on Consensus Forecasts)

Rp

40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Date 2905

Px Last 16.0

8.0 20.0

12.0

40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 3Date 2905

Px Last 16.0

8.0 20.0

12.0

26- 2405 06

21- 19- 1606 07 07

13- 1008 08

809

509

26- 2405 06

21- 19- 1606 07 07

13- 1008 08

809

509

310

Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun10

Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg.

Source: Bloomberg BEST estimates, Bloomberg, J. P. Morgan calculations.

Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 July 2010

JPM Q-Profile
Astra Agro Lestari (INDONESIA / Consumer Staples)
As Of: 09-Jul-2010 Quant_Strategy@jpmorgan.com

Local Share Price

35,000.00 30,000.00 25,000.00 20,000.00 15,000.00 10,000.00 5,000.00 0.00 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06

Current:

18600.00

12 Mth Forward EPS

2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 0.00 -500.00 -1,000.00

Current:

1634.56

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-95

Jun-96

Jun-97

Jun-98

Jun-99

Jun-00

Jun-01

Jun-02

Jun-03

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09 Jun-09 Jun-09 Jun-09

Earnings Yield (& local bond Yield)

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 12Mth fwd EY Indonesia BY Proxy

Current:

9%

Implied Value Of Growth*

1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 -0.80 -1.00

Current:

33.25%

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-95

Jun-96

Jun-97

Jun-98

Jun-99

Jun-00

Jun-01

Jun-02

Jun-03

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

PE (1Yr Forward)
25.0x 20.0x 15.0x 10.0x 5.0x 0.0x Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06

Current:

11.4x

Price/Book Value
14.0x 12.0x 10.0x 8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x -2.0x PBV hist PBV Forward

Current:

4.5x

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-95

Jun-96

Jun-97

Jun-98

Jun-99

Jun-00

Jun-01

Jun-02

Jun-03

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

ROE (Trailing)
80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06

Current:

28.89

Dividend Yield (Trailing)

18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

Current:

1.94

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Jun-10

Jun-95

Jun-96

Jun-97

Jun-98

Jun-99

Jun-00

Jun-01

Jun-02

Jun-03

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

Summary
Astra Agro Lestari INDONESIA Consumer Staples 12mth Forward PE P/BV (Trailing) Dividend Yield (Trailing) ROE (Trailing) Implied Value of Growth 3239.82 3.155578 SEDOL 6092498 Food Products Latest Min 11.38x 3.09 4.51x 0.69 1.94 0.00 5.82 28.89 33.3% -0.88 As Of: Local Price: EPS: % to Max % to Med 87% -28% 172% -35% 732% 48% 158% -12% 106% -11% 9-Jul-10 18,600.00 1634.56 % to Avg -15% -17% 57% -4% -16%

Max 21.24 12.25 16.12 74.61 0.69

Median 8.16 2.91 2.88 25.33 0.30

Average 9.66 3.75 3.04 27.83 0.28

2 S.D.+ 17.59 8.63 7.98 61.38 0.84

2 S.D. 1.72 -1.12 -1.90 -5.71 -0.29

% to Min -73% -85% -100% -80% -366%

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, J.P. Morgan Calcs

* Implied Value Of Growth = (1 - EY/Cost of equity) where cost of equity =Bond Yield + 5.0% (ERP)

Jun-10

Jun-10

Jun-10

Jun-10

Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 July 2010

Astra Agro Lestari: Summary of Financials

Income Statement Rp in billions, year end Dec Revenues % change Y/Y EBITDA % change Y/Y EBIT % change Y/Y EBIT Margin Net Interest Earnings before tax % change Y/Y Tax as % of EBT Net income (reported) % change Y/Y Shares outstanding EPS (reported) % change Y/Y FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E Cash flow statement FY12E Rp in billions, year end Dec FY08 3,354 214 -480 -1115 2,407 -1,101 129 51 1,306 0 -5 -704 -793 1,013 868 503 FY09 2,596 250 105 -796 2,016 -1,362 27 -163 654 0 0 466 -1,036 868 789 658 FY10E 2,367 270 359 -649 2,397 -212 103 -70 2,184 0 0 45 -1,153 789 1,794 732 FY11E 2,562 292 -31 -715 2,210 -502 160 -70 1,708 0 0 45 -1,271 1,794 2,206 807 FY12E 2,825 316 -46 -792 2,426 -671 189 -70 1,755 0 0 45 -1,406 2,206 2,530 893 8,161 7,424 7,585 8,073 8,811 EBIT 36.9% (9.0%) 2.2% 6.4% 9.1% Depr. & amortization 3,562 2,839 2,630 2,847 3,134 Change in working capital 16.1% -20.3% -7.4% 8.3% 10.1% Taxes 3,354 2,596 2,367 2,562 2,825 Cash flow from operations 16.7% NM NM 8.2% 10.3% 41.1% 35.0% 31.2% 31.7% 32.1% Capex 129 27 103 160 189 Disposal/(purchase) 3,546 2,500 2,498 2,752 3,044 Net Interest 21.7% -29.5% -0.1% 10.2% 10.6% Other -1,113 -771 -649 -715 -792 Free cash flow 31.4% 30.8% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 2,349 1,660 1,775 1,955 2,163 Equity raised/(repaid) 19.0% -29.3% 6.9% 10.2% 10.6% Debt raised/(repaid) 2 2 2 2 2 Other 1,491.48 1,054.31 1,126.90 1,241.42 1,373.42 Dividends paid 19.0% (29.3%) 6.9% 10.2% 10.6% Beginning cash Ending cash DPS

Balance sheet Rp in billions, year end Dec Cash and cash equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Others Current assets LT investments Net fixed assets Total Assets

FY08 868 16 781 310 1,976 4,124 6,520

FY09 789 150 610 166 1,714 5,242 7,571

FY10E 1,794 42 623 312 2,771 5,192 8,647

FY11E 2,206 44 664 332 3,246 5,408 9,409

Ratio Analysis FY12E Rp in billions, year end Dec 2,530 EBITDA margin 48 Operating margin 724 Net margin 362 3,664 Sales per share growth - Sales growth 5,770 Net profit growth 10,259 EPS growth Interest coverage (x)

FY08

FY09

FY10E

FY11E

FY12E

43.6% 38.2% 34.7% 35.3% 35.6% 41.10% 34.96% 31.21% 31.73% 32.06% 28.8% 22.4% 23.4% 24.2% 24.5%

36.9% (9.0%) 36.9% (9.0%) 19.0% -29.3% 19.0% (29.3%) -16.8% 1.37 1.26 51.0% 72.7% -12.7% 1.05 1.29 29.2% 45.6%

2.2% 2.2% 6.9% 6.9% -26.2% 0.94 1.28 27.1% 36.2%

6.4% 6.4% 10.2% 10.2% -29.3% 0.89 1.25 27.2% 35.6%

9.1% 9.1% 10.6% 10.6% -30.5% 0.90 1.23 27.3% 35.7%

Liabilities Short-term loans 0 0 Payables 291 238 Others 725 701 Total current liabilities 1,016 939 Long-term debt 0 0 Other liabilities 167 206 Total Liabilities 1,183 1,145 Shareholders' equity 5,156 6,226 BVPS 3,274 3,954 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

0 291 1,058 1,349 0 206 1,555 6,847 4,348

0 310 1,071 1,381 0 206 1,587 7,532 4,783

0 338 1,091 1,429 0 206 1,635 8,289 5,416

Net debt to equity Sales/assets Assets/equity ROE ROCE

Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 July 2010

Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.

Important Disclosures
Client of the Firm: Astra Agro Lestari is or was in the past 12 months a client of JPMSI.

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI.JK) Price Chart

Date
OW Rp30,000 OW Rp31,500 N Rp9,000 OW Rp25,000

55,704 OW Rp16,700 46,420 W Rp12,700

Rating Share Price Price Target (Rp) (Rp) OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW OW N N OW OW OW OW UW 8900 10600 12250 12050 14250 15800 22900 30200 25100 23900 17600 8100 9100 15050 18700 22150 23850 24200 22650 10000 12700 16700 16200 17000 18500 30000 36300 33200 31500 22000 9000 9000 15000 21500 25000 26700 26000 19000

02-Oct-06
OW Rp18,500 OW Rp33,200 OW Rp9,000 OW Rp21,500 UW Rp19,000

24-Nov-06 08-Jan-07 06-Mar-07 28-Aug-07 20-Sep-07 14-Nov-07 01-Feb-08 24-Apr-08 12-Aug-08

OW Rp16,200 OW Rp17,000 OW Rp36,300OW Rp22,000 37,136W Rp10,000 Price(Rp) 27,852 18,568 9,284 0 Oct 06 Jul 07 Apr 08 Jan 09

N Rp15,000

OW Rp26,700 OW Rp26,000

06-May-08 OW 12-Nov-08 12-Dec-08 23-Apr-09 12-Jun-09 12-Aug-09 04-Dec-09 16-Apr-10 28-Apr-10

Oct 09

Jul 10

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends. Break in coverage Feb 28, 2005 - Sep 08, 2005. This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.

Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] J.P. Morgan Cazenoves UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stocks expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE All Share Index, not to those analysts coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analysts teams coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe.

Coverage Universe: Aditya Srinath, CFA: Astra Agro Lestari (AALI.JK), Astra International (ASII.JK), Bank Central Asia (BCA) (BBCA.JK), Bank Danamon (BDMN.JK), Bank Niaga (BNGA.JK), Bank Pan Indonesia (Panin) (PNBN.JK), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI.JK), London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP.JK), PT Bakrie & Brothers, Tbk (BNBR.JK), PT Bank Internasional Indonesia (BNII.JK), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk. (BMRI.JK), United Tractors (UNTR.JK)

Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 July 2010

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2010 Overweight (buy) 46% 49% 44% 68% Neutral (hold) 42% 46% 48% 61% Underweight (sell) 12% 31% 9% 53%

JPM Global Equity Research Coverage IB clients* JPMSI Equity Research Coverage IB clients*

*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of NASD/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category.

Valuation and Risks: Please see the most recent company-specific research report for an analysis of valuation methodology and risks on any securities recommended herein. Research is available at http://www.morganmarkets.com , or you can contact the analyst named on the front of this note or your J.P. Morgan representative. Analysts Compensation: The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues from, among other business units, Institutional Equities and Investment Banking. Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of non-US affiliates of JPMSI, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NASD/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of JPMSI, and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Other Disclosures
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Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 July 2010

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Aditya Srinath, CFA (62-21) 5291-8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 July 2010

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