Probability Exercises 1. Suppose we have a bag with 3 red,2 black and 5 white balls. ro!

this bag a ball is drawn and it is returned . "hat is the probability o# drawing $ i % either a red or a black ball & $ ii % either a white or a black ball & 2. ' sub co!!ittee o# ( !e!bers is to be #or!ed out o# a group consisting o# ) !en and * wo!en. +alculate the probability that the sub co!!ittee will consist o# $ a % exactly 2 wo!en and $ b % at least 2 wo!en & 3 ,he probability that ' can solve a proble! is *-5, . can solve it is 2-3, and + can solve it is 3-)./# all o# the! try independently #ind the probability that $ a % Proble! will be solved $ b % Proble! will not be solved. *. ' bag contains ( red and 5 blue balls and another bag contains ( red and 0 blue balls. ' ball is drawn #ro! the #irst bag and without noticing its colour put into the second bag. '
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ball is then drawn #ro! the second bag. ind the probability that ball drawn is blue. 5.,wo cards are drawn #ro! a pack o# 52 at rando! and kept out. ,hen one card is drawn #ro! the balance 51 cards. ind the probability that it is an ace. (.,he odds against 2 solving a proble! are 0 to (.,he odds in #avour o# 3 solving are 1* to 1(. "hat is the probability that the proble!$ a % will not be solved $ b % will be solved. ). ' coin is tossed ( ti!es . "hat is the probability o# getting at least 2 heads. 0. ,wo persons throw a dice alternately till one o# the! gets a !ultiple o# 3 and wins the ga!e. ind there respective chances o# winning. 4. ' !an si!ultaneously tosses a coin and throws a die beginning with the coin. "hat is the probability that he will get a head be#ore he gets a 5 or ( . 11. ,hree !achines ',.,+ produce respectively 515,315,215 o# the total no o# ite!s in a #actory.
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,he percentages de#ective ite!s by these !achines are 35,*5,55 respectively. 'n ite! is drawn at rando! #ind the probability that ite! is de#ective . 11.,he probabilities o# 2,3,6 beco!ing !anagers are *-4,2-4,1-3 respectively. ,he probabilities that bonus sche!e will be introduced i# 2,3,6, beco!es !anager are 3-11,1-2,1-5 respectively. $ a % "hat is the probability that bonus sche!e will be introduced& $ b % /# the bonus is introduced the !anager is 2. ,here are * boys and 2 girls in roo! ', and 5 boys and 3 girls in roo! .. ' girl #ro! one o# the two roo! laughed loudly. "hat is the probability that girl is #ro! roo! .
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13. 3ou observe that your boss is happy with your call is 1.(. "hen he is happy the probability o# acceding to your re7uest is 1.* whereas i# he is unhappy probability o# acceding to your re7uest is 1.1.3ou call one day and he accedes to your re7uest . "hat is the probability o# boss being happy& 1*. /n a co!petition an exa!inee either guesses or copies or knows the answer to a !ultiple choice
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7uestion with * choices. ,he probability that he !akes a guess is 1-3. he copies is 1-(, and he knows is 1-0. ind the probability that he knew the answer to the 7uestion ,given that answer is correct. 15. ' co!pany uses selling aptitude test in the selection o# sales!an. Past experience has shown that only )15 o# all persons applying #or a sales position achieved a classi#ication o# dissatis#actory in actual selling , whereas the re!ainder were classi#ied satis#actory. 015 has scored a passing grade on the aptitude test. 8nly 255 o# those classi#ied dissatis#actory has passed the test on the basis o# this in#or!ation . what is the probability that a person would be satis#actory sales!an given that he passed the aptitude test .
1(.' candidate is selected #or interview #or 3 posts . or the #irst post there are 3 candidates, #or the second post there are * and #or the third there are 2 candidates. "hat are the chances that the candidate gets at least one post. 1). ,he table below gives the probabilities o# error and nu!ber o# account state!ent !ade by ',.,+ respectively. ' Probability 1.2 9u!ber 11 . 1.25 1( + 1.55 21

ind the expected nu!ber o# correct state!ents in all. 10. ' tennis player plays two sets against an opponent. :e has 515 chance o# winning #irst set, and, i# he wins the #irst, he has a 555 chance o# winning the second set, .ut i# he loses the #irst, he has only *15 chance o# winning the second set.

$ i %"hat is the probability o# winning both sets& $ ii % /# you are told he lost the second set , what is the probability he lost both sets & 14.' dice is tossed twice . ;etting a nu!ber greater than * is considered success. ind the !ean and variance o# probability o# nu!ber o# successes. 21. ,wo bad oranges are accidentally !ixed with ten good oranges . ,hree oranges are drawn at rando! without replace!ent #ro! this lot. ind the !ean and variance o# nu!ber o# bad oranges. 21.' purchase <anager has placed order #or a particular =aw !aterial with two suppliers, ' and . . ,he probability that supplier ' can deliver in * days is 1.55 . ,he probability that supplier . can deliver in * days is 1.35 . $i% "hat is the probability that both suppliers will deliver the !aterial in * days & $ii% "hat is the probability that at east one supplier will deliver the !aterial in * days & $iii% "hat is the probability that none will deliver the !aterial in * days & 22 ' bank is reviewing its credit card policy #or canceling so!e cards. /n the past approxi!ately 55 o# card holders have de#aulted and bank has been unable to collect the outstanding balance. :ence !anage!ent has attached prior probability o# 1.15 that any particular cardholder will de#ault. ,he bank has #urther #ound that the probability o# !issing one or !ore !onthly pay!ents is 1.21 #or custo!ers who do not de#ault. ,he probability o# !issing one or !ore !onthly pay!ents #or those who de#ault is 1. $i% ;iven that a custo!er has !issed a !onthly pay!ent , co!pute the posterior probability that the custo!er will de#ault. $ii% ,he bank would like to cancel the card i# the probability that a custo!er will de#ault is greater than 1.21.Should the bank cancel the card i# the custo!er !isses a !onthly pay!ent & why or why not & 23. +onsider the possibility o# a dangerous radioactive leakage occurring at a nuclear power generating plant. Suppose that a device designed to warn against leakage detects a proble! in su##icient ti!e to take corrective action with probability 1.40. 'lso, the probability that the device indicates action should be taken when no proble! exists is 1.11. 'n environ!entalist clai!s that the chance o# leakage is 1.13 at any point o# ti!e. "hat is the probability that a leakage proble! actually exists i# the warning device now indicate this &

prior prob

L L !"r

posterior prob jt prob P ( outcome&even P(event) P(outcome/event) t) P(event/outcome) 0.03 0.98 0.0294 0.23259493 0.9 0.# 0.09 0. $ 4050$3 0.#2$4 # condl prob

21. < ><issed pay!ents ?1> +usto!er de#aults ?2> +usto!er does not de#ault P$?1%>1.15 P$?2%>1.45 P$<-?2%>1.2 P$<-?1%>1 @P$?1%AP$<-?1%BP$?1-<%>