Preview

MATH 1050Y
A Non-Calculus Based Introduction to Probability & Statistical Methods
Section B FW 2013-14 Instructor: Jaclyn Semple

Polls, studies, surveys and other data collecting tools collect data from a small part of a larger group so that we can learn something about the larger group. A goal of statistics is to learn about a large group by examining data from some of its members.

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Preview
In this context, the terms sample and population have special meaning. Formal definitions for these and other basic terms will be given here. In this chapter, we will look at some of the ways to describe data.

Chapter 1
Introduction to Statistics
1-1 Review and Preview

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1-2 Statistical and Critical Thinking 1-3 Types of Data 1-4 Collecting Sample Data

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Data & Statistics

Data are collections of observations, such as measurements, genders, or survey responses Statistics is a collection of methods for: planning studies/experiments & obtaining data organizing, summarizing, presenting, analyzing, interpreting, and drawing conclusions based on the data
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Population and Sample

A population is the complete collection of all individuals (scores, people, measurements, and so on) to be studied. A sample is a subcollection of elements drawn from a population.

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Example
The Gallup corporation collected data from 1013 adults in the United States. Results showed that 66% of the respondents worried about identity theft. The population consists of all 241,472,385 adults in the United States. The sample consists of the 1013 polled adults. The objective is to use the sample data as a basis for drawing a conclusion about the whole population.
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Chapter 1
Introduction to Statistics
1-1 Review and Preview 1-2 Statistical and Critical Thinking 1-3 Types of Data 1-4 Collecting Sample Data

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Key Concept
This section provides an overview of the process involved in conducting a statistical study:

Prepare - Context
What do the data mean? What is the goal of the study?

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Prepare Analyze Conclude

Prepare - Source of the Data

Is the source objective? Is the source biased? Be vigilant and skeptical of studies from sources that may be biased.

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Prepare - Sampling Method

Does the method chosen greatly influence the validity of the conclusion? Voluntary response (or self-selected) samples often have bias (those with special interest are more likely to participate). Other methods are more likely to produce good results.

Analyze Graph and Explore

Every analysis should begin with appropriate graphs (Chapter 2).

Analyze Apply Statistical Methods

Later chapters describe important statistical methods. With technology, good analysis does not require strong computational skills, but it does require using common sense and paying attention to sound statistical methods.
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Conclude Statistical Significance

Statistical significance is achieved in a study when we get a result that is very unlikely to occur by chance.

Example
In a test of the Atkins weight loss program, 40 subjects had a mean weight loss of 4.6 pounds after one year. Using formal methods of statistical analysis, we can conclude the diet appears to be effective. But wait Although 4.6 pounds is statistically significant, using common sense, the program does not seem very worthwhile.
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Conclude - Practical Significance

State practical implications of the results. Common sense might suggest that the finding does not make enough of a difference to justify its use or to be practical.
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Misuses of Statistics
Data can often be presented in ways that may be misleading. Some misuses of statistics are unintentional, such as people who are ignorant or careless. In other cases, the misuses of statistics are intentionally in order to support personal objectives. We should learn to distinguish between statistical conclusions that are likely to be valid and those that are seriously flawed

Potential Pitfalls: Misleading Conclusions

Concluding that one variable causes the other variable when in fact the variables are only correlated or associated together. Example: Two variables that may seem linked are smoking and pulse rate. We cannot conclude the one causes the other. Correlation does not imply causation.
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Potential Pitfalls: Bad Samples

A major source of deceptive statistics is inappropriate methods of collecting data. One very common sampling method allows the sample subjects to decide for themselves whether to be included. A self-selected sample is one in which the respondents themselves decide whether to be included. In this case, valid conclusions can be made only about the specific group of people who agree to participate and not about the population.
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Potential Pitfalls: Small Samples

We will see later that small samples are not necessarily a bad thing. However, small samples are sometimes used as a form of statistical lying. Example: The preferences of only 10 dentists should not be used as a basis for a generalized claim such as Colgate toothpaste is recommended by 7 out of 10 dentists. Samples small or large must be unbiased and representative of the population from which it comes.
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Potential Pitfalls: Loaded Questions

If survey questions are not worded carefully, the results of a study can be misleading. Survey questions can be loaded or intentionally worded to elicit a desired response. Example: The percentage of people who agree with the statement Too little money is being spent on welfare. would tend to be much lower than the percentage who agree with the statement Too little money is being spent on assistance to the poor.
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Potential Pitfalls: Order of Questions

Questions are unintentionally loaded by such factors as the order of the items being considered. Example: Would you say traffic contributes more or less to air pollution than industry? Results: traffic - 45%; industry - 27% When order reversed Results: industry - 57%; traffic - 24%
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Potential Pitfalls: Nonresponse

Occurs when someone either refuses to respond to a survey question or is unavailable. People who refuse to talk to pollsters have a view of the world around them that is markedly different than those who will let pollsters into their homes.

Potential Pitfalls: Missing Data

Can dramatically affect results. Subjects may drop out for reasons unrelated to the study. Example: People with low incomes are less likely to report their incomes. Example: U.S. Census suffers from missing people (tend to be homeless or low income).
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Potential Pitfalls: Precise Numbers

Because a figure is precise, many people incorrectly assume that it is also accurate. Example: A sample of 2500 students from a Canadian university produced an average salary of $25,542.64. A precise number can be an estimate, and it should be referred to that way.
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Potential Pitfalls: Distorted Percentages

Misleading or unclear percentages are sometimes used. Example: Continental Airlines ran an ad claiming Weve already improved 100% in the last six months with respect to lost baggage. Does this really mean that now no baggage is being lost?
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Potential Pitfalls: Partial Pictures

Data can be presented in such a way as to omit an important piece of information. Example: A car company advertises that Ninety percent of all our cars sold in this country in the last ten years are still on the road. BUT they didnt mention that almost all of those cars had been sold within just the last three years!
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Potential Pitfalls: Misleading Graphs

To correctly interpret a graph, you must analyze the numerical information given in the graph, so as not to be misled by the graphs shape. Read labels and units on the axes!
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Potential Pitfalls: Pictographs

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Pause & Practice

Youve been hired to research recognition of the Roots brand name, and you must conduct a telephone survey of 1500 customers in Canada. This is an example of:

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Diagram (b) is designed to exaggerate the difference by increasing each dimension in proportion to the actual amounts of oil consumption.
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A. Distorted percentages B. Bad sample C. Precise numbers D. Misleading graphs

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Pause & Practice

2.
A report sponsored by British Columbia fruit farmers concluded that cholesterol levels can be lowered by eating fruit products. Do you trust this conclusion?

Pause & Practice

3.
Sixty-eight percent of those who responded to a Toronto Star poll question said that the provincial government should change the law to make it easier to get squeegee kids off the streets. Do you think this result valid?

A. Yes B. No
Discuss with your neighbour why this conclusion might be suspect.
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A. Yes B. No
Discuss the validity of this result with your neighbour.
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Pause & Practice

4.
An East Coast newspaper claims that pregnant mothers can increase their chances of having healthy babies by eating lobster. That claim is based on a study showing that babies born to lobster-eating mothers have fewer health problems than babies born to mothers who dont eat lobsters. Do you find anything wrong with this claim?

Pause & Practice

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A researcher at the Sloan-Kettering Cancer Research Center was once criticized for falsifying data. Among his data were figures obtained from 6 groups of mice, with 20 mice per group. The following values were given for the percentage of successes in each group: 53%, 58%, 63%, 46%, 48%, 67%. Whats wrong here? Discuss with your neighbour

A. Yes B. No
Discuss with your neighbour.
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