ADJUSTING CROPS AND CROPPING PATTERN WITH WATER AVAILABILITY

Zakir Hussain Dahri,* Shahid Ahmad** and P.M. Moshabbir*** Abstract

Fresh water has become an increasingly scarce resource, limiting agricultural development in many regions and Pakistan is no exception where conditions of below normal precipitation, erratic distribution of rainfall, and reduced snowfalls and consequent low flows in the river system have attracted serious attention of the farmers and planners. Consequently more emphasis is needed to achieve the remaining development potential and the performance of the existing irrigation systems to improve water productivity. The forecasts and long term predictions on the availability of irrigation water also do not give much hope. Hence, the country needs right planning and management alternatives to ensure the judicious use of the precious water. Development and enforcement of appropriate cropping pattern for various agro-ecological zones can be a promising alternative. In fact it is the first and foremost step towards optimized agriculture. This paper summarizes the state of existing water resources, presents the prevalent cropping patterns, pinpoints the available alternatives to replace higher delta crops with the lower ones, and offers suggestions for various sectors to achieve these objectives.

1.

INTRODUCTION

Fresh water has become an increasingly scarce resource, limiting agricultural development in many regions. Therefore, sustainable water resources management is becoming a policy objective globally. For ensuring sustainable food security for an increasing population, the agricultural production must increase proportionately requiring efficient management of the available water resources to increase water productivity. Pakistan has been facing worst ever water crises in its history and water shortages during the last two decades are worth mentioning. The conditions of below normal precipitation, erratic distribution of rainfall, and reduced snowfalls and consequent low flows in the river system have got serious attention among the farmers and planners to put more emphasis on the performance of the existing irrigation systems and take concrete efforts to improve water productivity. The extended drought during 1993 2002 has reduced surface water supplies from 30 70 %, highlighting the importance of water resources conservation and management, which was never realized before. The condition is yet to be improved as the water shortage during the Rabi 2007-08 season remained 23.4 %, adversely affecting wheat crop, production of which declined by 6.6%. The occasional above normal monsoon rainfalls can improve the situation substantially but again lack of storage facilities might not allow enough storage, which could fulfill the requirements of following Rabi Season and possibly for dry years. Due to changing climatic conditions, the forecasts and long term predictions on the availability of irrigation water in the country do not give much hope for improvement but instead they foresee a scenario in which such supplies would be on the declining side. Growing water demands from other sectors would also add to the severity of water shortage problem. Such an alarming situation demands for immediate, concrete and longterm commitments for judicious use of irrigation water and optimized agronomic practices. Crop zoning and optimal cropping pattern can be promising alternatives but these solutions have both technical and policy related aspects and decisions. This paper highlights the prevalent cropping patterns, pin points the available alternatives to meet the growing food demands at depleted water resources, and gives suggestions to achieve these objectives. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*Deputy Director, **Member and *** Director respectively, Natural Resources Division, PARC Paper presented and published in the National Conference on Water Shortage and Future Agriculture Challenges and Opportunities, Agriculture Foundation of Pakistan. August 26-27, 2008, Islamabad, Pakistan

2. 2.1

SITUATION ANALYSIS Rainfall

The mean annual rainfall in the country varies from less than 100 mm in parts of Balochistan and Sindh provinces to greater than 1500 mm in foothills and northern mountains. Based on the countrys weighted average annual precipitation of 278 mm spread over the total geographical area of 79.7 m. ha, the total estimated annual renewable fresh water resource is about 200 MAF. The Indus Basin irrigated area receives about 40 MAF of annual precipitation, of which only 13.4 MAF (34 %) is actually available for crop consumptive requirements; 6 MAF (15%) seeps down and becomes the part of groundwater; another part finds its way into the rivers and streams; and a small portion is lost to direct evaporation and non beneficial evapotranspiration. Rainfall conservation potential outside the Indus Basin Irrigated Areas is estimated to be approximately 20 MAF, of this, nearly 5 MAF (25 %) is being presently used through the construction of over 500 delay action dams, dispersion and flood diversion structures etc. Thus, further development potential of 15 MAF exists in 13 major hill torrent areas of Pakistan including FATA, AJK and Northern Areas. Most of this water is being presently lost to evaporation and even the remaining is unable to find its way to the Indus River System. It is anticipated that two to three MAF of this water would be harnessed through conventional structures by the year 2025.

Figure 1. Mean annual rainfall in Pakistan

2.2

River Inflows

Indus river system is fed by rainfall and snow- and/or glacier-melt. Rainfall in the country is generally low, erratic and its distribution is much skewed making storage and irrigation facilities inevitable, while snow and glacier melt is seasonal having greater intensity also requiring storage reservoirs. The extreme variability in seasonal rainfall has direct impacts on river flows which have rather larger variability during the Rabi and the Kharif seasons. The Kharif (summer) season flows are five times greater than Rabi (winter) season flows as shown in Figure 2. This variability in river flows restricts the assessment of real contribution of storage in regulating flows of the Indus River System. At 50 % probability, the total rivers provided 143.1 MAF of surface water in an average year during the post-storage period.

250 200

Kharif

Rabi

Annual

Flows (MAF)

150 100 50 0

Min Flows

90

75

50

25

10

Max Flows

Probability of Exceedence (%)

Figure 2. Variability of Rim-Station inflows to Indus River System

2.3

Canal Diversions

The variability in canal diversions is mainly dependent on the available river inflows. Hence, there is a high variability in canal diversions during Rabi and Kharif seasons. The variability between the highest and lowest post-Tarbela canal diversions is 24% (74.7 and 57.1 MAF) and 47% (40.8 and 21.5 MAF) during Kharif and Rabi seasons, respectively. The variability in annual canal diversions is around 28% (111.1 and 79.6 MAF) largely due to stochastic nature of river flows (Figure 3 ). At 50 % probability the annual canal water diversion remain around 99 MAF.

120 100
Diversions (MAF)

Kharif Rabi

Annual

80 60 40 20 0 Min Flows 90 75 50 25 10 Max Flows

Probability of Exceedence (%)

Figure 3. Variability of post-Tarbela canal diversions in the IBIS

2.4

Groundwater

Estimated annual recharge to the groundwater in the Indus Basin is 55 MAF, out of which 36 MAF is in fresh groundwater zone. The reservoir of fresh groundwater in the Indus Basin is around 1620 MAF, which is more than 10 times the mean annual river flows. During the last 30 years, groundwater contribution to irrigated agriculture has almost doubled from 25.6 to around 50.3 MAF. The country has made considerable progress in the development of innovative and indigenous tubewells technology. However, with the rise of electric tariff and diesel fuel prices, problem of secondary salinization in marginal quality zones and closure of SCARP tubewells, the groundwater abstraction is now almost stagnant since 1996-97. The groundwater now contributes around 46.16 % of surface water available at the farm head from around 1.0 million tubewells.

The recent rise in prices of diesel fuel and enhanced electric tariff would affect the groundwater abstractions as the cost of pumping will increase, which will have adverse effect on the profitability of irrigated agriculture. Particularly, the Punjab province will be affected severely as almost half of water available at the field level is contributed by groundwater.

2.5

Cropping Pattern, Crop Area and Net Crop Water Requirements

The cropping pattern in Pakistan is quite complex and on an average it is a mixed pattern. The major cropping patterns in the country are: a) rice-wheat; b) cotton-wheat; c) maize-wheat; and d) sugarcane mixed with other crops. The major crops like wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane occupy around three-fourth of the irrigated area. Each of the major cropping patterns is having mixed cropping either during the Rabi season or during the Kharif season or both. PARC conducted a spatial analysis of the existing cropping pattern by superimposing it over the WAPDAs IBM-R agro-climatic zones (Figure 4) and found that there is very high intrusion of other crops (Ahmad 2003a). The cropping pattern is usually based on farmers preferences and market forces. Thus crop zoning could not be achieved in the past because of multiple factors The irrigated area in Pakistan increased from 41.39 million acres in 1990-91 to 48.41 million acres during 2006-07 including: wheat 18.125 million acres (37.44 % of total); rice 6.378 million acres (13.175 % of total); cotton 7.598 million acres (15.7 % of total); sugarcane 2.542 million acres (5.25 % of total); and fodders 4.945 million acres (10.21 % of total). These five crops cover 39.59 million acres, representing 81.8% of the total irrigated area. Other crops cover 8.82 million acres; which constitute 18.2% of total irrigated area in Pakistan (Table 1).

Figure 4 Existing cropping pattern The actual crop water requirement data of PARC are used to estimate net crop water requirements. The net crop water requirements of 16, 26, 40, 47 and 18 inches were used for wheat, cotton, rice, sugarcane and fodders crops, respectively, in Punjab province whereas in Sindh province higher rates are used for some of the crops. These five major crops consume 82.7% of total water needed for crop consumptive requirement. This includes: wheat 24.06 MAF (25.1 % of total); rice 21.51 MAF (22.5 % of total); cotton 16.2 MAF (16.9 % of total); sugarcane 9.84 MAF (10.3 % of total); and fodders 7.6 MAF (7.9 % of total). Total net crop water requirement are 95.8 MAF (Table 2). Hence, to have tangible effects strategy is needed for these five crops.

Table 1 Irrigated cropped area during 2006-07 Irrigated Cropped Area (million acres) Crop Wheat Rice Sugarcane Cotton Fodders Total of Five Crops Other Crops Total of All Crops Area Covered by Five Major Crops
Data Source: Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan, 2006-07;

Punjab 14.142 4.271 1.759 6.086 3.950

Sindh 2.315 1.478 0.531 1.409 0.707

NWFP 0.776 0.150 0.252 0.000 0.200

Balochistan 0.891 0.479 0.001 0.103 0.087

Pakistan 18.125 6.378 2.542 7.598 4.945 39.59 8.82 48.41 81.78%

Table 2 Net crop water requirement of irrigated crops in Pakistan Crop Wheat Rice Sugarcane Cotton Fodders Total of Five Crops Other Crops Total of All Crops Net Water Needs of Five Major Crops
Data Source: Agriculture Statistics of Pakistan, 2006-07; Consumptive Use of Water for Major Crops, PARC (1982; 1993).

Net Crop Water Requirement (MAF) Punjab 18.55 14.01 6.92 12.98 5.93 Sindh 3.42 5.33 2.09 3.00 1.24 NWFP 1.07 0.44 0.83 0.00 0.30 Balochistan 1.02 1.73 0.00 0.22 0.13 Pakistan 24.06 21.51 9.84 16.20 7.59 79.21 16.60 95.81 82.68%

The important point to note is that net crop water requirement is a function of actual crop evapotranspiration which is more or less a fixed parameter for a given agro-climatic zone, whereas efficiency varies from location to location and farm to farm. Thus, gross crop water requirement or gross irrigation water requirement can change with the improvement in water conveyance system and change of irrigation methods. 2.6 Water Budget for Agricultural Use The average water conveyance efficiency of the Indus Basin irrigation system is 59.25%; which is based on canal conveyance efficiency of 79% and watercourse conveyance efficiency of 75%. The field application efficiency is 75%. Thus, the overall irrigation efficiency is 44.44%. The net water availability for crop consumptive requirement is around 81.72 MAF, whereas the net crop water requirement is 95.8 MAF. Thus, shortfall is 14.08 MAF (14.7%) without rainfall contribution and

if rainfall contribution of 13.4 MAF is taken into account then the shortfall is only 0.68 MAF (0.71%). This indicates the importance of rainfall in our agriculture. The shortfall during dry years will increase due to reduced canal water supplies and less rainfall. However, the farmers usually do adapt to such conditions either by reducing their cropped area, deficit irrigation or enhanced groundwater abstractions.

Budget of Agricultural Water Use in the Indus Basin

Canal Diversions to the Indus basin at 50% probability Water Conveyance losses Canal Water Available at the Farm Head Pumpage from Groundwater during 2006-07 Net Water Availability at Farm Head Field Application Losses Net Irrigation Water Availability for Crop Consumptive Requirement Rainfall Contribution Net Crop Water Requirement Shortfall in a mean year without rainfall contribution Shortfall during mean year with rainfall contribution of 13.4 MAF

MAF
99.00 40.34 58.66 50.30 108.96 27.24 81.72 13.40 95.80 14.08 0.68

Source: Report of the Sub-Committee on Water and Climate Change of the Task Force on Food Security

3.

WHY ADJUSTMENT OR CHANGE IN EXISTING CROPPING PATTERN

Increasing shortage of irrigation water due to growing demands from other sectors; uncertainty, high variability and possibly reduction of available water resources due to effects of climate change; and need for optimized agriculture/precision farming to ensure sustainable food security for ever increasing population are the prime motivating factors to revive our existing cropping pattern. Cotton-wheat, rice-wheat, maize-wheat, coarse grain-wheat, and sugarcane are the major existing cropping patterns in the country. The country needs improved alternate cropping pattern, which ensures diversity, profitability, value addition, import substitution, export orientation, water efficiency and requires less water to grow.

4.

MAJOR STRATEGIES TO MEET INCREASING AGRICULTURAL DEMANDS WITH LESS WATER

The solution to the seemingly impossible situation of producing substantially higher agricultural commodities to meet the needs of the population with insufficient irrigation supplies is through modernization and optimization of the agricultural production system to bring about a substantial increase in crop yields and improved water use efficiency for crop production. In view of decreasing water resources, major change in the current land use practices especially the area under different crops is required. The area under water-intensive crops especially sugarcane and rice will need to be reduced while the area under crops that have a better water use efficiency will need to be increased. Strategies for adjusting to the limited water availability will have to be developed for different agro-ecological sub-zones. Different strategies will have to be developed for the monsoon belt with heavy rainfall during July-August, and the non-monsoon low rainfall areas. A related consideration is for the Kharif (summer) and Rabi (winter) crops. The Kharif crops are grown just before onset of monsoon season and utilize the heavy rainfall to meet the crop water requirement, which is augmented with irrigation as and when needed. Traditionally, the Kharif crops mainly consisting of rice, cotton, maize, sugarcane and fodder etc. were based on sufficient monsoon rainfall with supplementary irrigation. However during the last few years with comparatively low rainfall, there has been a heavier reliance on irrigation. The irrigation strategy

in Pakistan is based on preference for the Rabi crops especially wheat, which is grown almost entirely on irrigation. Therefore, the policy is to store maximum rainwater during summer in the reservoirs so as to have sufficient supplies to meet the requirement of the Rabi crops (carryover storage). Some areas which are unsuitable for any kind of annual cropping could be converted into rangelands and forests to get some economic returns from low quality soils and other marginal areas. This would result in considerable water savings and the country would be able to cope with a very difficult water availability situation and environmental degradation while still meeting the requirements for agricultural products for the increasing population.

4.1

Crop Zoning

In view of the increasing population pressure and dwindling natural resources base, optimized agricultural practices by improving land and water productivity, reversing land degradation and water loss and conserving biodiversity and environment seems to be the only option for achieving sustainable food security in Pakistan. Development of new Agro-Ecological Zones based on the most suitable climatic, soil and water conditions is the first and foremost step towards optimized agriculture. The Agro-ecological zones developed by PARC in 1986 (Figure 5) and IBM-R Agroclimatic zones developed by WAPDA (Figure 6) are too wide and do not contain the recent change in climatic conditions and varietal development of crop cultivars. The new developed crop zoning framework should be enforced in both irrigated and non-irrigated environments considering the desertification and climate change impacts. Zoning should be based on the optimal range of temperature, humidity and adequate levels of growing degree-days required for crop maturity to ensure optimal and sustained productivity. Moreover, soil properties, depth to watertable and groundwater quality must be given due consideration.

Figure 5 Agro-ecological regions of Pakistan

Figure 6 IBM-R Agro-climatic Zones

4.2

Crop Substitution

Rice and sugarcane are less efficient users of irrigation as compared to other crops. Therefore, in a situation of water scarcity and increasing cost of irrigation supplies, it is essential to substitute these crops selectively to other crops that would fit well in the agro-ecological conditions and give more economic returns on water use. For this analysis, it is emphasized that the issue is of stored water and not the water that is available from run-of-the river in the summer months. Therefore a simple comparison of the total water used by the crop till maturity and economic returns from various crops would hide important considerations. In any case, the issue is complex and requires further location-specific research to determine the most efficient water-user crops for different areas to replace rice and sugarcane.

4.2.1

Sugarcane

Sugarcane is a long duration crop and covers both the Kharif and Rabi seasons. It is an uneconomical crop (high delta of water) if the real value of water is recovered especially under conditions of water scarcity. The crop however, is grown under a wide variety of agro-ecological situations from the relatively mild, almost temperate conditions in parts of NWFP to the subtropical conditions in Sindh. While the crop needs to be replaced in some parts of the country, the identification of such areas has to be done very carefully. Sugarcane would still be an efficient crop in some locations but in several others, it would be highly inefficient and need replacement. Besides a wide variety of crops grown in the country can possibly replace sugarcane but sugarbeet is a logical and promising candidate for replacing sugarcane. However, this is a Rabi crop, although an efficient user of water for sugar production as compared to sugarcane. If sugarbeet successfully replaces sugarcane, then the existing sugar mills established at a huge cost can also be used with the addition of slicing units and other minor modifications. Average sugarcane yield is 53.2 t/ha compared with 41.8 t/ha of sugarbeet. Sugar recovery of sugarbeet is a little higher than sugarcane. Net water requirement of sugarcane is 79 acre-inch (2006 mm) compared to 27 acre-inch (686 mm) for sugarbeet. Therefore sugarbeet is about 3 times as efficient a sugar crop in terms of water requirement as sugarcane (Figure 7 & 8). However, sugarbeet is a crop of the temperate areas like Europe and North America and is not well suited to sub-tropical conditions as in most parts of Pakistan. Therefore feasibility of growing sugarbeet in Pakistan will have to be undertaken including aspects of processing especially loss of sugar in the crop due to fermentation during post-harvest storage.
S ugarcane
25 20

S ugarbeet

6 5 4 3 2 1
p Se O r Ap ar M b Fe n Ja c De v No ct

5 .7 6

Water Applied (mm)

S u garcan e S u garbe e t

15 10 5 0
v No ct O p Se g Au ly Ju ne Ju ay M

2 .4 6

0 .2 4 (kg o f pr o duc e /m 3 )

0 .5 7

Pe riod (months)

(kg o f sug ar /m 3 )

Figure 7 Water used by Sugarcane and Sugarbeet

Figure 8 Water Productivity of Sugarcane and Sugarbeet Source: Ahmad 2003 a & 2003 b.

SMEDA, Stube Dieckmann and SES (2007) studied the possibility of replacing sugarcane with sugar beet crop in Pakistan and found this replacement technically and economically viable. They concluded that sugar beet can be grown in new areas depending upon the will power of the sugar mills along with a clear strategy from the federal and provincial governments. The consultants further stated that stakeholders were aware of the benefits that they can get by adopting a short duration sugar beet crop that will not only boost the agriculture sector but will also meet the increasing demand of sugar, by products like molasses and beet pulp that can be used as animal feed in the country. 4.2.2 Rice Rice is second largest staple food crop in Pakistan and basmati rice are an important source of foreign earnings. However, the crop consumes lot of water to mature and some people claim that the country is exporting water rather than rice. Logically, if the country restricts rice cultivation then it must need additional reservoirs as this crop is grown during the period of highest supplies and our irrigation system usually flows at its full capacity.

For replacement of typically flooded rice crop (Figure 9), the country needs the adaptation of aerobic rice (Figure 10), which is a fundamental approach to reduce water use in rice crop. It requires aerobic soil conditions rather than standing water and puddling. The approach is being successful working in China and Philippines at rainfed to supplementary irrigated conditions. The practice is proved to be highly productive and responsive to high inputs giving double water productivity. However, this technique needs to be tested for Basmati rice for water productivity and quality of grains with particular reference to aroma, which is a great source of peoples attraction. Currently rice is grown in all the provinces. Upland rice and the crop grown mostly on rain water in heavy rainfall areas during the monsoon period may not be replaced initially since crop replacement is a major issue and involves a major change in the crop culture, processing and marketing regime. Serious consideration has to be given to replacement of rice grown in cotton zone (i.e southern Punjab, left bank of river Indus in Sindh, and Balochistan). The potential candidate crops for replacement are: maize, cotton, sunflower, soybean, mung, mash, and summer fodders. An important consideration in selection of the replacement crop is the fact that most rice areas are saline and prone to waterlogging. This will severely limit the choice of crops unless measures to drain excess water and salt are taken.

Figure 9 Flooded rice crop

Figure 10 Aerobic rice crop

Maize can be a promising alternative to rice crop as it is a food, feed, fodder and industrial crop and there is enormous potential for improving maize production in Pakistan. This crop can also serve as the backbone of a successful meat, dairy and poultry industry if livestock production processing and marketing is properly organized. Hybrid maize can give very high yield and maize varieties can be developed with adaptability to a wide variety of agro-ecological situations. However, maize is also quite sensitive to soil salinity and waterlogging, even ponding of excessive water due to monsoonal rains can destroy the crop. Therefore maize can replace rice in selected areas provided the downstream processing industries and marketing system for this crop is efficiently organized so that the growers get a good price for their crop. For the substitution of rice crop, the most important aspect is that such replacements have to be based on canal commands and area approach; otherwise piecemeal replacement will not reduce the problem of high water table, which is a limiting factor for most of the replacement crops. Research is needed for the techno-economics of replacement crops. 4.2.3 Wheat

Wheat is the most important and widely used staple food crop in Pakistan. It has become a political crop as governments have been struggling to address the adverse and unwanted effects of wheat shortages. Country is nearly self sufficient in wheat production but low local prices and smuggling to Afghanistan are causing real shortages in the local markets. Governments have been trying hard

to become completely self-sufficient and possibly export this crop. No replacement is available however, barley, which is resistant to saline and alkaline conditions, can be grown in areas where wheat can not give good yields. We have to look for improving water productivity of this crop as there exists huge scope for it. 4.2.4 Cotton Cotton is of course the crop of choice because of higher export earnings. Pakistan has been doing well in cotton production, processing and marketing. No crop substitutes are available for cotton crops rather additional production of cotton will further strengthen the national economy if export of textiles and yarn is organized. Improving water productivity through optimized use of inputs and development of water efficient high yielding varieties is the area where major attention is required in view of water shortages. Cotton is a strong candidate not only to recover the area currently under rice and sugarcane but also expand further to earn more per drop of water used. However, cotton is sensitive to salinity and waterlogging and will be able to replace rice in selected areas only. 4.2.5 Fodders Fodder crops are an obvious choice in most situations as a replacement for rice. However research on varietal improvement and agronomic practices on these crops has been relatively neglected and needs to be improved simultaneously. Also, if large areas are to be diverted to fodder crops, then the related aspects of animal production and processing and marketing of livestock products also need to be addressed. Screening and development of water efficient high yielding fodder varieties and improving their production technologies are the potential aspects to be researched upon.

4.3

Improving Water Productivity

Water productivity of major crops in Pakistan is among the lowest in the World. One of the reasons is treatment of irrigation water as a public good as farmers pay negligible price for it. Once the Abiana rates are rationalized by inducing higher rates for greater water consuming crops such as rice and sugarcane, farmers will start giving value to the water use. Other reasons are primitive production technologies, which are unable to match the changing climate and necessities of the increased population. There is a need to initiate a mega program focusing on optimized use of irrigation water under different agro-ecological conditions and varying water supply and water quality conditions.
5 4 3 2 1 0 W he a t R ic e S ug a r C o tto n (L ) F o d d e rs M a ize S o rg h u m 0 .7 8 0 .1 6 0 .2 3 0 .0 9 0 .1 6 3 .8 5

W a te r P r o d u c tiv ity (k g /m 3 )

0 .5 4

Figure 11 Water productivity of major crops in Pakistan

10

E c o n o m ic P r o d u c t iv it y ( R s /m 3 )

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 W he at R ic e S ugar C o tto n (L ) F o d d e rs 4 .1 4 3 .5 0 6 .2 5 5 .0 1 8 .1 2

9 .1 6

2 .8 6

M a iz e

S o rg h u m

Figure 12 Economic productivity of major crops in Pakistan

4.4

Crop Rotation and Intercropping

In the context of limited land and dwindling water resources, our agriculture needs to be intensified. Potential for horizontal expansion is very little therefore we have to look for vertical expansion by increasing cropping intensity and improving crop yields. Crop rotation is may be a good alternative to conserve soil health and intercropping may serve the means of getting more output per drop of irrigation water. In fact these techniques have been adopted by the progressive farmers but need to be expanded on a larger scale. In the context of very hot climate, where our soils are having vaporization rather than evapotranspiration, the intercropping of trees with crops can be a good alternative to cool down the local environment and reduce evaporation losses. This practice may be particularly beneficial in southern Punjanb, northern and eastern Sindh, and Balochistan provinces.

5.

CONCLUSIONS
Rainfall is low, erratic and unevenly distributed making storage and irrigation facilities inevitable Reservoirs are operated to transfer water of Kharif to Rabi season and storage is not available to transfer water of wet years to dry years Storage dams are not filled fully during dry years Pumpage is already from marginal-brackish zone Agriculture sector would face further shortages in water availability due to increase in future water demand in other sectors. The agro-ecological zones developed by PARC do not incorporate the crop suitability criteria (e.g. humidity, temperature, GDD, etc) The IBMR agro-climatic zones are too general and too wide as such there is very high encroachment of other crops Abiana rates are based on area rather than crop water use Water productivity of most crops in Pakistan is very low Existing area under five major crops (Wheat, Rice, Cotton, Sugarcane and Fodders) requires 82% of total water needed for consumptive water requirement in irrigated areas. Only 18% of total water is needed for other crops Water saving achieved in Kharif season will require storage facilities For achieving self-reliance in major food items and for enhanced export earnings strategy is needed for these five major crops

From the discussion presented above the following key points can be summarized.

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6.

RECOMMENDATIONS Cropping Pattern

Gradual replacement of sugarcane with sugarbeet crop Promotion of aerobic rice and coarse grain crops Increasing area under oilseeds and pulses Increasing area under export quality fruits and vegetables Ban on rice and sugarcane cultivation in Kachhi, Rainee and Thal canal command areas - a directive for WAPDA and PIDAs The new canals under development or proposed for future must specify the cropping pattern based on agro-ecology and countrys requirement. Change in eating habit - shift from rice dominant food system to wheat and coarse grain (Sorghum, Maize, Millet) dominant food system and promotion of coarse grain crops

Research
Development of new agro-climatic zones covering the criteria of crop suitability Optimizing irrigation schedules for different crops under varying water supply and water quality conditions Increasing crop water productivity Research on promoting aerobic rice and conserving the aroma of Basmati rice Breeding of water efficient, drought resistant and heat tolerant crop cultivars Study for rationalizing abiana rates for different crops

Industries
Sugar Mills located in the non-suitable ecologies must be closed and scraped Up gradation of sugar mills located in sugarbeet suitable ecologies to process both sugarcane and sugarbeet Upgradation and modification of sugar mills to produce low cost energy from mollassis, baggas and other by products Similar action needed for the Rice Mills located in the non-suitable ecologies

Policies
Incentives for sugarbeet and aerobic rice cultivation to ensure maximum net return to the farmers Marketing facilities for the bye products of sugarbeet (molasses and pulp) in the suitable ecologies. Ban on rice and sugarcane cultivation in non-suitable ecologies Southern NWFP, Southern Punjab, Northern and Central Sindh especially on left bank of river Indus, and Balochistan Provision of energy initially at the subsidized rates to Sugarbeet industries and thereafter ensure production of energy from sugarbeet molasses to make them self sufficient and also for selling out to government. Rationalizing Abiana rates based on water use by various crops in canal commands and increasing rates for rice and sugarcane crops

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7.

REFERENCES

Planning Commission 2008, Draft report of the Sub-committee on Water and Climate Change of the Task Force on Food Security SMEEDA, Strube-Dieckmann and SES 2007, Sugar Beet a Supplement to Sugarcane for sugar production in Pakistan, Report on the Fact Finding Mission from 16th April to 10th May2007 Ahmad, S. 2003a, Adjusting cropping pattern to available water. Farming Outlook. 3(1):18-21. Ahmad, S. 2003b, Strategy for adjusting cropping pattern and crop water requirement with availability in the Indus basin. Proceedings of the PARC and JICA Workshop on Appropriate Surface Irrigation 15th October, Holiday Inn, Islamabad, p. 25-35.

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