THE FIELD POLL

Release #2453 By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD

Field Research Corporation

601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline

Release Date: Thursday, December 5, 2013 IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)

BROWN'S JOB APPROVAL UP AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS. OVERWHELMINGLY PREFERRED SHOULD HE RUN FOR RE-ELECTION.

Governor Jerry Brown is currently riding high in voter popularity. Nearly six in ten registered voters (58%) statewide approve of the job he is doing, with just 33% disapproving. This represents an increase of seven points in the Governor's approval rating since July. Brown has not indicated whether he will run again for governor next year. However, when listed in a field of four possible candidates in a simulated June open primary election, Brown is the overwhelming choice. In this setting, Brown receives 52% of the preferences, followed in order by former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado (11%), State Assemblyman Tim Donnelly (9%), and former Assistant Treasury Secretary Neel Kashkari (3%). Another 25% are undecided. These are the findings from a new statewide Field Poll survey completed this week. Brown's job performance In March 2011, less than three months after Brown assumed office, The Field Poll found 48% of voters approving, 21% disapproving and a relatively large proportion (31%) having no opinion. Since that time more voters have formed an opinion of his performance. In the current survey the proportion of voters unable to rate Brown has declined to just 9%. At present, 58% of voters say they approve of the job Brown is doing as governor, his highest approval rating of his tenure, while one in three (33%) disapprove. More than three in four Democrats (78%) offer a positive evaluation of how Brown is handling his job and just 14% give a negative assessment. About six in ten Republicans (63%) disapprove of Browns performance, while 27% approve. Among independent voters 58% approve and 33% disapprove.

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Table 1 Trend of job performance ratings of Jerry Brown during his current term as Governor (among registered voters) Approve December 2013 July 2013 February 2013 October 2012* September 2012 July 2012 Late May 2012 February 2012 November 2011 September 2011 June 2011 March 2011 Party registration (December 2013) Democrats Republicans No party preference/others 58% 51% 57% 46% 46% 44% 43% 45% 47% 49% 46% 48% 78% 27% 58% Disapprove 33 33 31 37 37 42 40 38 36 32 31 21 14 63 33 No opinion 9 16 12 17 17 14 17 17 17 19 23 31 8 10 9

* Survey conducted among likely voters in the November 2012 general election.

Image ratings of the potential gubernatorial candidates There will be an open primary election for governor next June. While Brown, a Democrat, has not indicated whether he will seek re-election, most of the state's political community believes that he will be a candidate. Two Republicans, Maldonado and Donnelly, have already formally announced that they will be candidates, while a third, Kashkari, has been reported to be seriously considering a run. However, each of these potential challengers are largely unknown to majorities of voters. When asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each man, 62% of voters report having no opinion of Maldonado. With Donnelly 80% have no opinion, and in Kashkari's case this increases to 83%. By contrast, just 7% do not have an opinion of Brown. Below are the proportions of voters who have a favorable or unfavorable of each man, and in the case of Brown and Maldonado, the trend of prior Field Poll image ratings for each man.

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Table 2 Image ratings of the four potential gubernatorial candidates (among registered voters) Favorable Jerry Brown December 2013 June 2011 Late October 2010* September 2010* July 2010* March 2010* January 2010* October 2009 March 2009 Abel Maldonado December 2013 October 2010* September 2010* July 2010 Tim Donnelly December 2013 Neel Kashkari December 2013 56% 58% 47% 44% 42% 41% 44% 44% 50% 18% 39% 36% 25% 12% 9% Unfavorable No opinion 37 31 47 47 40 37 32 29 25 20 19 17 12 8 8 7 11 6 9 18 22 24 27 25 62 42 47 63 80 83

* Survey conducted among likely voters in the 2010 statewide elections. In that election, Maldonado was a candidate for Lt. Governor and Brown was a candidate for Governor.

Preferences in a simulated June primary In next June's open primary election, candidates from all parties Democrats, Republicans and others will be listed together on one ballot and voters can chose to vote for a candidate from any party. The two candidates who receive the most votes will then proceed to the November general election, regardless of party. When all registered voters are offered these four gubernatorial possibilities and asked who they would prefer if the election were being held today, Brown at 52% leads the field by a wide margin. Maldonado and Donnelly are well back, receiving 11% and 9% of the preferences, respectively, while Kashkari is at 3%. One in four voters (25%) are undecided.

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Table 3 Voter preferences for Governor should Democrat Jerry Brown face Republicans Tim Donnelly, Abel Maldonado and Neel Kashkari in the June 2014 open primary election (among registered voters) Jerry Brown Abel Maldonado Tim Donnelly Neel Kashkari Undecided
* Less than of 1%

52% 11 9 3 25

Voting preferences across political and demographic subgroups of the electorate Among Democrats Brown is preferred by an overwhelming 80% of voters, with Maldonado (5%), Donnelly (3%), and Kashkari (1%) picking up only tiny pockets of support. Brown also has a dominant lead among independent voters with no party preference, holding 47% of their preferences. Maldonado and Donnelly are more competitive among rank-and-file Republicans, with Maldonado at 21% and Donnelly 20%, followed by Brown at 17%. Brown shows considerable strength among voters across most demographic and regional subgroups of the state, and fares best among liberals, ethnic voters, voters not affiliated with the Tea Party, and voters in coastal counties, especially the urban areas of Los Angeles County and the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area.

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Table 2 Voter preferences for governor in the June 2014 open primary election across political and demographic subgroups (among registered voters) Total registered voters Party registration Democrats Republicans No party preference/other Political ideology Strongly conservative Moderately conservative Middle-of-the-road Moderately liberal* Strongly liberal Tea Party identification A lot/some Not at all Area Coastal counties Inland counties Region Los Angeles County Other Southern California Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Other Northern California* Gender Male Female Age 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 or older Race/ethnicity White non-Hispanic Latino Black/Asian/other
* Small sample base.

Brown 52% 78% 17% 47% 19% 32% 51% 79% 95% 26% 70% 56% 44% 60% 42% 47% 64% 54% 50% 54% 50% 54% 55% 49% 49% 58% 65%
** Less than of 1%

Maldonado 11 6 21 9 14 14 15 1 1 15 8 9 14 7 13 14 10 6 14 8 8 12 10 12 9 19 6

Donnelly 9 2 20 10 25 17 6 3 1 19 3 9 10 7 13 8 8 12 9 10 11 9 10 9 12 6 6

Kashkari 3 1 3 6 5 5 3 1 ** 5 2 2 4 4 2 6 1 ** 3 3 4 4 2 1 3 1 4

No opinion 25 13 39 28 37 32 25 16 3 35 17 24 28 22 30 25 17 28 24 25 27 21 23 29 27 16 19

30

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Information About The Survey

Methodological Details

The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll survey completed November 15-December 3, 2013 among 836 registered voters in California. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize possible voter fatigue, some of the questions in this report were asked of a random subsample of 424 registered voters statewide. Interviewing was conducted by telephone using live interviewers working from Field Research Corporation's central location telephone interviewing facilities in San Diego. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter from the state's registered voter rolls on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. Interviewing was completed on either a voter's landline phone or a cell phone depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the overall registered voter sample was weighted to demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while findings from the random subsample have a sampling error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these other possible sources of error. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Poll receives annual funding from media subscribers of The Field Poll, from several California foundations, and the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes. Questions Asked Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as Governor of California? I am going to read the names of some people who are considered to be candidates for Governor in next year's statewide election. As I read each name, please tell me whether your opinion of that person is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don't know enough about that person to have an opinion. Is your opinion of (NAME AND TITLE) favorable or unfavorable? (NAMES AND TITLES READ IN RANDOM ORDER).* The upcoming June statewide election will be an open primary. This means that candidates from all parties Democrats, Republicans and other parties will be listed together on one ballot and voters can chose to vote for a candidate from any party. I am going to read the names of some of the likely candidates for Governor next year and please tell me whom you would choose if the election were being held today. Suppose the choices were (NAMES AND PARTIES READ IN RANDOM ORDER). For whom would you vote if the election for Governor were being held today?

* Question asked of a random subsample of 424 registered voters statewide. All other questions asked of the overall sample of 836 registered voters.