Finance Modeling Lab

Oxford Financial Modelling LAB
AndreasT. Angelopoulos, developed by Andreas T. Angelopoulos 2006 (version 1) - 12.11.2013 (last update) for the registered students in the Oxford Finance Modlling Lab
REFERENCES & SUGGESTE READINGS:
Leveraged Buyouts. Investment Banking Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts, and Mergers & Acquisitions. Rosenbaum, J and Pearl, J (2009) by Hoboken, New Jersey, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Table of Contents
Instructions
1. Finance instruments
1a. Debt instrumenst
Senior debt
Mezzanine
HY bond
RCF Capex
1b. Equity instruments

Shareholder loan
2. Operational & Financial Model

Assumptions
Operational model
Financial Statements
3. Valuation
Comparables
DCF NPV
DCF APV
LBO Simple
LBO Advanced (BS adjustment)
Output
4. Investment analysis (Graphs)
Financial Modelling LAB

Instructions
Guidelines for implementing your working model:
1. Start with the Operational Model sheet and build the projections of each operational segment based on th
n Make the necessary assumptions for each operational segment of the Company (US, International, CP
n Total the numbers of all operational segments and build the Net Working Capital projections by foreca
2. Move on to the Financial Statements to build the projections for Company's future Income Statement, Ca
n You will be using the operational model assumptions calculated in the previous step for some key item
n Some figures are provided to keep things simple
3. DCF Analysis follows using the NPV and APV methodologies

n Beta analysis is provided in order to calculate the unlevered beta of the Company to be used in the NP
n Build the NPV model following the steps that help you derive the value of the Company
n Build the APV model following the steps that help you derive the value of the Company
n A Comparables Model is also provided
4. The LBO Model presented here is irrelevant and independent from other sheets
n Start with building the Sources & Uses of funds (The capital structure is provided)
n Operational assumptions are also provided
n Debt pricing and schedule terms are provided; you need to build it
n Project the future Financial Statements of the Company based on the operational assumptions provide
Note: Several comments have been provided inside every sheet to help you. If there is something you don
Cells Format:
User Input
BLUE
Linked with other spreadsheets
GREEN
Formulas
BLACK
Cells with black border indicate that their content was initially hard coded and will need to be updated at a la
h operational segment based on the historical data provided

he Company (US, International, CPG)
rking Capital projections by forecasting Balance Sheet items days
any's future Income Statement, Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet
he previous step for some key items
the Company to be used in the NPV method

ue of the Company
ue of the Company
e operational assumptions provided (this is similar to the process in step 2 above)
you. If there is something you don't understand the respective (answer) sheet provides the solution
and will need to be updated at a later step
1. FINANCE INSTRUMENTS
1A. DEBT FINANCE INSTRUMENTS

Finance Instruments - Senior Debt
Step 1 Define the debt term and pricing
Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
CapEx Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term
(Years)
Amort.
6
6
6
7
8
x EBITDA
Amount
Spread
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
Bullet
1.2x
3,000
10
Bullet
0.4x
1,000
15
Bullet
1.2x
2,870
2011E
2012E
2013E
1.0284%
1.1897%
2.1835%
1.0760%
1.1566%
1.6535%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
(343.9)
(307.6)
(322.3)
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.5%
Step 2 Define the Senior Debt Repayment Schedule

Base Rates
2010A
$ 3M LIBOR forward curve
$ 3y SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
1.1235%
50.00%
Term Loan A
Base Rate
Interest rate
Average Life of the facility
Amortisation schedule (% of total facility)
Opening Balance
Principal repayments
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan B
Base Rate
Interest rate
Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan C
Base Rate
Interest rate
Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Expand for the answer
0.0
0.0
0.0
Interest rate
6.0%
8.0%
14.0%
0.78%
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
4.5486%
4.7695%
4.8068%
2.1141%
2.4601%
2.7024%
2.8252%
2.8361%
2.9465%
2.9652%
20.0%
20.0%
30.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(303.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(345.2)
(545.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(969.6)
0.0
0.0
0.0

Finance Instruments - Mezzanine
Debt Structure
Term
(Years)
Amort.
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
Bullet
1.2x
3,000
10
Bullet
0.4x
1,000
15
Bullet
1.2x
2,870
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
1.0284%
1.1897%
2.1835%
1.0760%
1.1566%
1.6535%
1.08%
6.00%
7.58%
1.16%
6.00%
7.66%
1.65%
6.00%
8.15%
0.0%
3,000.0
0.0
(180.0)
(227.3)
3,180.0
0.0%
3,180.0
0.0
(190.8)
(243.5)
3,370.8
0.0%
3,370.8
0.0
(202.2)
(274.8)
3,573.0
Senior debt
RCF Facility
CapEx Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Step 2 Define the Mezzanine repayment schedule

Base Rates
$ 3y SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
Mezzanine
Base Rate
PIK Element
Cash Element
Amortisation schedule (% of Op. balance+PIK)
Opening Balance
PIK Interest expense
Cash Interest expense
Closing Balance
x EBITDA Amount
Spread
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
6.5%
1.1235%
50.00%
Interest
rate
6.0%
8.0%
14.0%
0.78%
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
4.5486%
4.7695%
4.8068%
2.1141%
2.4601%
2.7024%
2.8252%
2.8361%
2.9465%
2.9652%
2.11%
6.00%
8.61%
2.46%
6.00%
8.96%
2.70%
6.00%
9.20%
2.83%
6.00%
9.33%
2.84%
6.00%
9.34%
2.95%
6.00%
9.45%
2.97%
6.00%
9.47%
0.0%
3,573.0
0.0
(214.4)
(307.8)
3,787.4
0.0%
3,787.4
0.0
(227.2)
(339.4)
4,014.7
0.0%
4,014.7
0.0
(240.9)
(369.4)
4,255.6
0.0%
4,255.6
0.0
(255.3)
(396.8)
4,510.9
0.0%
4,510.9
0.0
(270.7)
(421.1)
4,781.5
0.0%
4,781.5
5,068.4
(286.9)
(451.7)
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Finance Instruments - High Yield Bond
Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
CapEx Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term
(Years)
Amort.
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
Bullet
1.2x
3,000
10
Bullet
0.4x
1,000
15
Bullet
1.2x
2,870
2010A
2011E
2012E
x EBITDA Amount
Spread
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
6.5%
Step 2 Define the HY Bond repayment schedule
HY Bond
Interest rate
Opening Balance
Interest expense
Closing Balance
2013E
Interest
rate
6.0%
8.0%
14.0%
0.78%
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E

Finance Instruments - RCF CAPEX
Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
CapEx Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term
(Years)
Amort.
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
Bullet
1.2x
3,000
10
Bullet
0.4x
1,000
15
Bullet
1.2x
2,870
2011E
2012E
2013E
1.0284%
1.1897%
2.1835%
1.0760%
1.1566%
1.6535%
2011E
2012E
2013E

$ 3y SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
2009A
2010A
Commitment
Undrawn
Opening Cash Balance on Balance Sheet
Cash Increase/Decrease
Closing balance before RCF
Opening Balance
Drawdown/(Repayment)
Closing Balance
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
1.1235%
50.00%
RCF Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
Minimum closing cash balance
Spread
6.5%
Step 2 Define the RCF and CapEx facilities repayment schedule

Base Rates
RCF and CapEx Repayment Schedule
x EBITDA Amount
100.0
0.0
Interest expense
Commitment fee on Unused Revolver
CapEx Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
Commitment
Undrawn
Repayment (% of total facility)
Opening Balance
Drawdown
Closing Balance
Interest expense
Commitment fee on Unused Capex
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
Interest
rate
6.0%
8.0%
14.0%
0.78%
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
4.5486%
4.7695%
4.8068%
2.1141%
2.4601%
2.7024%
2.8252%
2.8361%
2.9465%
2.9652%
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
150.0
1B. EQUITY INSTRUMENTS

Equity Instruments - Shareholder Loan
Debt Structure
Senior debt
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated Debt
Mezzanine
- PIK Element
- Cash Element
HY Bond
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Term
(Years)
Amort.
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.4x
1.4x
750
750
4,500
3,500
3,500
Bullet
1.2x
3,000
10
Bullet
0.4x
1,000
15
Bullet
1.2x
2,870
2011E
2012E
2013E
1.0284%
1.1897%
2.1835%
1.0760%
1.1566%
1.6535%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Spread
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
6.5%
Step 2 Define the Shareholder Loan repayment schedule

Base Rates
2010A
$ 3y SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
x EBITDA Amount
1.1235%
50.00%
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
0.0
Interest
rate
6.0%
8.0%
14.0%
0.78%
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
4.5486%
4.7695%
4.8068%
2.1141%
2.4601%
2.7024%
2.8252%
2.8361%
2.9465%
2.9652%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2. OPERATIONAL & FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (FS)
TEMENTS (FS) MODEL

Operating Assumptions
Assumptions
n Breakdown of the Company's main Income Statement figures based on its reportable operating segments
n Revenues to grow at a 2010-14 CAGR of c. 4.7% trending to c. 3.4% in later years driven by a 14.2% CAGR of the CPG segment as well as strong growth in other segments
n Gross margins expected to decrease from c. 59% in 2010 to 57% in later years driven by an increase of COGS in the CPG segment
n Overheads to decrease as a % of sales from c. 36.4% to 34%
n EBITDA margins to remain broadly flat c. 23%
n CapEx assumed to be between 4 - 5 % of revenues
n Working Capital assumed to decrease over time leading to a positive cash impact
n Tax rate of 34.5% (current effective tax rate of Starbucks as per the Financial Statements)
Note 1: Fiscal year end for Starbucks is end of September
Note 2: For modeling purposes we assumed that the transaction closes in September 2010 and that 2010 Revenues and EBITDA are Expected based on our ssumptions

Operational Model
1A
US ($M), FY End Sep-2010
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
6,560.9
6,997.7
6.7%
534.3
15.6%
7,532.0
7.2%
6,572.1
(6.1%)
532.5
(0.3%)
7,104.6
(5.7%)
7,031.8
7.0%
528.6
(0.7%)
7,560.4
6.4%
(2,804.0)
39.9%
(3,206.3)
42.6%
(2,965.7)
41.7%
(2,906.1)
38.4%
4,218.9
60.1%
4,325.7
57.4%
4,138.9
58.3%
4,654.3
61.6%
SG&A
% Sales
(2,872.0)
40.9%
(3,265.2)
43.4%
(2,982.7)
42.0%
(2,985.3)
39.5%
EBITDA
% Sales
1,346.9
19.2%
1,060.5
14.1%
1,156.2
16.3%
1,669.0
22.1%
Depreciation & Amortisation

% Sales
(341.7)
4.9%
(395.4)
5.2%
(378.1)
5.3%
(350.7)
4.6%
Retail Sales
% Growth
Total Specialty Sales:
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
COGS
% Sales
Gross profit
% Sales
2A
3A
International ($M), FY End Sep-2010
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
1,437.4
1,774.2
23.4%
329.2
27.2%
2,103.4
24.0%
1,608.0
(9.4%)
312.4
(5.1%)
1,920.4
(8.7%)
1,931.7
20.1%
357.1
14.3%
2,288.8
19.2%
COGS
% Sales
(824.6)
48.6%
(1,054.0)
50.1%
(963.7)
50.2%
(1,078.2)
47.1%
Gross profit
% Sales
871.6
51.4%
1,049.4
49.9%
956.7
49.8%
1,210.6
52.9%
SG&A
% Sales
(649.7)
(38.3%)
(811.4)
(38.6%)
(734.3)
(38.2%)
(851.0)
(37.2%)
EBITDA
% Sales
221.9
13.1%
238.0
11.3%
222.4
11.6%
359.6
15.7%

% Sales
(84.2)
5.0%
(108.8)
5.2%
(102.5)
5.3%
(108.6)
4.7%
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
747.6
8.0%
747.6
8.0%
749.6
0.3%
749.6
0.3%
707.4
(5.6%)
707.4
(5.6%)
CPG ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
258.8
1,696.2
692.4
692.4
COGS
% Sales
(370.5)
53.5%
(385.0)
51.5%
(395.5)
52.8%
(384.9)
54.4%
Gross profit
% Sales
321.9
46.5%
362.6
48.5%
354.1
47.2%
322.5
45.6%
SG&A
% Sales
(66.4)
9.6%
(77.1)
10.3%
(51.1)
6.8%
(57.4)
8.1%
EBITDA
% Sales
255.5
36.9%
285.5
38.2%
303.0
40.4%
265.1
37.5%
(6.6)
1.0%
(6.3)
0.8%
(5.7)
0.8%
(3.7)
0.5%

% Sales
Total
462.0
7,022.9
Starbucks Corporation ($M), FY End Sep-2010

US
International
CPG
Other
Total Revenues
% Growth
US
International
CPG
COGS
% Sales
Gross profit
% Sales
US
International
CPG
SG&A
% Sales
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
7,022.9
1,696.2
692.4
9,411.5
7,532.0
2,103.4
747.6
10,383.0
10.3%
7,104.6
1,920.4
749.6
9,774.6
(5.9%)
7,560.4
2,288.8
707.4
150.8
10,707.4
9.5%
(2,804.0)
(824.6)
(370.5)
(3,999.1)
42.5%
(3,206.3)
(1,054.0)
(385.0)
(4,645.3)
44.7%
(2,965.7)
(963.7)
(395.5)
(4,324.9)
44.2%
(2,906.1)
(1,078.2)
(384.9)
(4,369.2)
40.8%
5,412.4
57.5%
5,737.7
55.3%
5,449.7
55.8%
6,338.2
59.2%
(2,872.0)
(649.7)
(66.4)
(3,588.0)
(38.1%)
(3,265.2)
(811.4)
(77.1)
(4,153.7)
(40.0%)
(2,982.7)
(734.3)
(51.1)
(3,768.1)
(38.5%)
(2,985.3)
(851.0)
(57.4)
(3,893.7)
(36.4%)
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
EBITDA
% Sales
1,824.4
19.4%
1,584.0
15.3%
1,681.6
17.2%
2,444.5
22.8%
US
International
CPG
% Sales
(341.7)
(84.2)
(6.6)
(432.5)
4.6%
(395.4)
(108.8)
(6.3)
(510.5)
4.9%
(378.1)
(102.5)
(5.7)
(486.3)
5.0%
(350.7)
(108.6)
(3.7)
(463.0)
4.3%
(1,080.3)
11.5%
(984.5)
9.5%
(445.6)
4.6%
(450.0)
4.2%
(316.2)
(3.4%)
NA
(284.5)
(2.7%)
31.7
(497.7)
(5.1%)
(213.2)
(776.6)
(7.3%)
(278.9)
Current Assets
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Other Current Assets
281.3
287.9
691.7
148.8
269.8
329.5
692.8
169.2
599.8
271.0
664.9
147.2
1,164.0
302.7
543.3
156.5
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses & Other
Deferred Revenue
390.8
756.8
296.9
324.9
782.7
368.4
267.1
925.0
388.7
282.6
1,082.4
414.1
11.2
63.1
5.8
11.6
54.4
5.9
10.1
56.1
5.5
10.3
45.4
5.3
35.7
29.4
11.5
25.5
27.5
13.0
22.5
34.5
14.5
23.6
36.9
14.1
CapEx
% Sales
Net Working Capital
% Sales
Change
Days
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
CAGR
10A-14E
15E-20E
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
(100.0%)
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Operational Model
1A
US ($M), FY End Sep-2010
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
6,560.9
6,997.7
6.7%
534.3
15.6%
7,532.0
7.2%
6,572.1
(6.1%)
532.5
(0.3%)
7,104.6
(5.7%)
7,031.8
7.0%
528.6
(0.7%)
7,560.4
6.4%
7,313.1
4.0%
597.3
13.0%
7,910.4
4.6%
7,561.7
3.4%
627.2
5.0%
8,188.9
3.5%
7,864.2
4.0%
652.3
4.0%
8,516.5
4.0%
8,178.8
4.0%
678.4
4.0%
8,857.1
4.0%
8,424.1
3.0%
698.7
3.0%
9,122.8
3.0%
8,676.8
3.0%
719.7
3.0%
9,396.5
3.0%
(2,804.0)
39.9%
(3,206.3)
42.6%
(2,965.7)
41.7%
(2,906.1)
38.4%
(3,052.6)
38.6%
(3,153.2)
38.5%
(3,406.6)
40.0%
(3,542.8)
40.0%
(3,649.1)
40.0%
(3,758.6)
40.0%
4,218.9
60.1%
4,325.7
57.4%
4,138.9
58.3%
4,654.3
61.6%
4,857.8
61.4%
5,035.7
61.5%
5,109.9
60.0%
5,314.3
60.0%
5,473.7
60.0%
5,637.9
60.0%
SG&A
% Sales
(2,872.0)
40.9%
(3,265.2)
43.4%
(2,982.7)
42.0%
(2,985.3)
39.5%
(3,061.3)
38.7%
(3,169.1)
38.7%
(3,065.9)
36.0%
(3,188.6)
36.0%
(3,375.4)
37.0%
(3,476.7)
37.0%
EBITDA
% Sales
1,346.9
19.2%
1,060.5
14.1%
1,156.2
16.3%
1,669.0
22.1%
1,796.5
22.7%
1,866.6
22.8%
2,043.9
24.0%
2,125.7
24.0%
2,098.3
23.0%
2,161.2
23.0%

% Sales
(341.7)
4.9%
(395.4)
5.2%
(378.1)
5.3%
(350.7)
4.6%
(363.9)
4.6%
(368.5)
4.5%
(255.5)
3.0%
(265.7)
3.0%
(273.7)
3.0%
(281.9)
3.0%
Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
COGS
% Sales
Gross profit
% Sales
2A
3A
International ($M), FY End Sep-2010
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
1,437.4
1,774.2
23.4%
329.2
27.2%
2,103.4
24.0%
1,608.0
(9.4%)
312.4
(5.1%)
1,920.4
(8.7%)
1,931.7
20.1%
357.1
14.3%
2,288.8
19.2%
1,970.3
2.0%
376.0
5.3%
2,346.4
2.5%
2,090.5
6.1%
413.6
10.0%
2,504.2
6.7%
2,216.0
6.0%
438.4
6.0%
2,654.4
6.0%
2,326.8
5.0%
460.4
5.0%
2,787.1
5.0%
2,419.8
4.0%
478.8
4.0%
2,898.6
4.0%
2,516.6
4.0%
497.9
4.0%
3,014.6
4.0%
COGS
% Sales
(824.6)
48.6%
(1,054.0)
50.1%
(963.7)
50.2%
(1,078.2)
47.1%
(1,109.8)
47.3%
(1,184.5)
47.3%
(1,247.6)
47.0%
(1,309.9)
47.0%
(1,362.3)
47.0%
(1,416.8)
47.0%
Gross profit
% Sales
871.6
51.4%
1,049.4
49.9%
956.7
49.8%
1,210.6
52.9%
1,236.5
52.7%
1,319.7
52.7%
1,406.8
53.0%
1,477.2
53.0%
1,536.3
53.0%
1,597.7
53.0%
SG&A
% Sales
(649.7)
(38.3%)
(811.4)
(38.6%)
(734.3)
(38.2%)
(851.0)
(37.2%)
(861.3)
36.7%
(905.7)
36.2%
(929.0)
35.0%
(975.5)
35.0%
(1,014.5)
35.0%
(1,055.1)
35.0%
EBITDA
% Sales
221.9
13.1%
238.0
11.3%
222.4
11.6%
359.6
15.7%
375.3
16.0%
413.9
16.5%
477.8
18.0%
501.7
18.0%
521.7
18.0%
542.6
18.0%

% Sales
(84.2)
5.0%
(108.8)
5.2%
(102.5)
5.3%
(108.6)
4.7%
(115.0)
4.9%
(120.2)
4.8%
(79.6)
3.0%
(69.7)
2.5%
(72.5)
2.5%
(75.4)
2.5%
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
747.6
8.0%
747.6
8.0%
749.6
0.3%
749.6
0.3%
707.4
(5.6%)
707.4
(5.6%)
872.2
23.3%
872.2
23.3%
996.1
14.2%
996.1
14.2%
1,115.6
12.0%
1,115.6
12.0%
1,204.9
8.0%
1,204.9
8.0%
1,277.1
6.0%
1,277.1
6.0%
1,341.0
5.0%
1,341.0
5.0%
CPG ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Retail Sales
% Growth
% Growth
Total Sales
% Growth
258.8
1,696.2
692.4
692.4
COGS
% Sales
(370.5)
53.5%
(385.0)
51.5%
(395.5)
52.8%
(384.9)
54.4%
(471.9)
54.1%
(537.9)
54.0%
(580.1)
52.0%
(626.5)
52.0%
(664.1)
52.0%
(697.3)
52.0%
Gross profit
% Sales
321.9
46.5%
362.6
48.5%
354.1
47.2%
322.5
45.6%
400.4
45.9%
458.2
46.0%
535.5
48.0%
578.3
48.0%
613.0
48.0%
643.7
48.0%
SG&A
% Sales
(66.4)
9.6%
(77.1)
10.3%
(51.1)
6.8%
(57.4)
8.1%
(92.5)
10.6%
(112.6)
11.3%
(145.0)
13.0%
(156.6)
13.0%
(166.0)
13.0%
(174.3)
13.0%
EBITDA
% Sales
255.5
36.9%
285.5
38.2%
303.0
40.4%
265.1
37.5%
307.9
35.3%
345.6
34.7%
390.5
35.0%
421.7
35.0%
447.0
35.0%
469.4
35.0%
(6.6)
1.0%
(6.3)
0.8%
(5.7)
0.8%
(3.7)
0.5%
(5.2)
0.6%
(6.0)
0.6%
(4.5)
0.4%
(4.8)
0.4%
(5.1)
0.4%
(5.4)
0.4%

% Sales
Total
462.0
7,022.9
Starbucks Corporation ($M), FY End Sep-2010

US
International
CPG
Other
Total Revenues
% Growth
US
International
CPG
COGS
% Sales
Gross profit
% Sales
US
International
CPG
SG&A
% Sales
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
7,022.9
1,696.2
692.4
9,411.5
7,532.0
2,103.4
747.6
10,383.0
10.3%
7,104.6
1,920.4
749.6
9,774.6
(5.9%)
7,560.4
2,288.8
707.4
150.8
10,707.4
9.5%
7,910.4
2,346.4
872.2
11,129.0
3.9%
8,188.9
2,504.2
996.1
11,689.1
5.0%
8,516.5
2,654.4
1,115.6
12,286.5
5.1%
8,857.1
2,787.1
1,204.9
12,849.1
4.6%
9,122.8
2,898.6
1,277.1
13,298.6
3.5%
9,396.5
3,014.6
1,341.0
13,752.1
3.4%
(2,804.0)
(824.6)
(370.5)
(3,999.1)
42.5%
(3,206.3)
(1,054.0)
(385.0)
(4,645.3)
44.7%
(2,965.7)
(963.7)
(395.5)
(4,324.9)
44.2%
(2,906.1)
(1,078.2)
(384.9)
(4,369.2)
40.8%
(3,052.6)
(1,109.8)
(471.9)
(4,634.3)
41.6%
(3,153.2)
(1,184.5)
(537.9)
(4,875.5)
41.7%
(3,406.6)
(1,247.6)
(580.1)
(5,234.3)
42.6%
(3,542.8)
(1,309.9)
(626.5)
(5,479.3)
42.6%
(3,649.1)
(1,362.3)
(664.1)
(5,675.6)
42.7%
(3,758.6)
(1,416.8)
(697.3)
(5,872.8)
42.7%
5,412.4
57.5%
5,737.7
55.3%
5,449.7
55.8%
6,338.2
59.2%
6,494.7
58.4%
6,813.6
58.3%
7,052.2
57.4%
7,369.8
57.4%
7,623.0
57.3%
7,879.3
57.3%
(2,872.0)
(649.7)
(66.4)
(3,588.0)
(38.1%)
(3,265.2)
(811.4)
(77.1)
(4,153.7)
(40.0%)
(2,982.7)
(734.3)
(51.1)
(3,768.1)
(38.5%)
(2,985.3)
(851.0)
(57.4)
(3,893.7)
(36.4%)
(3,061.3)
(861.3)
(92.5)
(4,015.1)
(36.1%)
(3,169.1)
(905.7)
(112.6)
(4,187.4)
(35.8%)
(3,065.9)
(929.0)
(145.0)
(4,140.0)
(33.7%)
(3,188.6)
(975.5)
(156.6)
(4,320.7)
(33.6%)
(3,375.4)
(1,014.5)
(166.0)
(4,556.0)
(34.3%)
(3,476.7)
(1,055.1)
(174.3)
(4,706.1)
(34.2%)
EBITDA
% Sales
1,824.4
19.4%
1,584.0
15.3%
1,681.6
17.2%
2,444.5
22.8%
2,479.7
22.3%
2,626.2
22.5%
2,912.2
23.7%
3,049.1
23.7%
3,067.0
23.1%
3,173.2
23.1%
US
International
CPG
% Sales
(341.7)
(84.2)
(6.6)
(432.5)
4.6%
(395.4)
(108.8)
(6.3)
(510.5)
4.9%
(378.1)
(102.5)
(5.7)
(486.3)
5.0%
(350.7)
(108.6)
(3.7)
(463.0)
4.3%
(363.9)
(115.0)
(5.2)
(484.1)
4.3%
(368.5)
(120.2)
(6.0)
(494.7)
4.2%
(255.5)
(79.6)
(4.5)
(339.6)
2.8%
(265.7)
(69.7)
(4.8)
(340.2)
2.6%
(273.7)
(72.5)
(5.1)
(351.3)
2.6%
(281.9)
(75.4)
(5.4)
(362.6)
2.6%
(1,080.3)
11.5%
(984.5)
9.5%
(445.6)
4.6%
(450.0)
4.2%
(580.5)
5.2%
(607.8)
5.2%
(614.3)
5.0%
(578.2)
4.5%
(531.9)
4.0%
(412.6)
3.0%
(316.2)
(3.4%)
NA
(284.5)
(2.7%)
31.7
(497.7)
(5.1%)
(213.2)
(776.6)
(7.3%)
(278.9)
(816.2)
(7.3%)
(39.6)
(908.7)
(7.8%)
(92.5)
(1,015.2)
(8.3%)
(106.4)
(1,064.9)
(8.3%)
(49.8)
(1,109.2)
(8.3%)
(44.3)
(1,146.9)
(8.3%)
(37.7)
Current Assets
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
281.3
287.9
691.7
148.8
269.8
329.5
692.8
169.2
599.8
271.0
664.9
147.2
1,164.0
302.7
543.3
156.5
316.7
571.3
161.6
333.1
587.7
169.7
346.7
616.6
178.4
359.1
645.5
186.6
364.3
668.6
193.1
376.8
691.9
199.7
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue
390.8
756.8
296.9
324.9
782.7
368.4
267.1
925.0
388.7
282.6
1,082.4
414.1
304.7
1,128.1
433.0
333.9
1,200.9
464.4
372.9
1,279.1
504.9
390.3
1,337.7
528.0
404.3
1,384.5
546.5
418.3
1,431.7
565.2
11.2
63.1
5.8
11.6
54.4
5.9
10.1
56.1
5.5
10.3
45.4
5.3
10.4
45.0
5.3
10.4
44.0
5.3
10.3
43.0
5.3
10.2
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
35.7
29.4
11.5
25.5
27.5
13.0
22.5
34.5
14.5
23.6
36.9
14.1
24.0
37.0
14.2
25.0
37.5
14.5
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
CapEx
% Sales
Net Working Capital
% Sales
Change
Days
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
8,937.1
3.0%
741.3
3.0%
9,678.4
3.0%
9,205.3
3.0%
763.5
3.0%
9,968.8
3.0%
9,481.4
3.0%
786.4
3.0%
10,267.8
3.0%
9,765.9
3.0%
810.0
3.0%
10,575.9
3.0%
(3,871.4)
40.0%
(3,987.5)
40.0%
(4,107.1)
40.0%
(4,230.3)
40.0%
5,807.0
60.0%
5,981.3
60.0%
6,160.7
60.0%
6,345.5
60.0%
(3,581.0)
37.0%
(3,688.4)
37.0%
(3,799.1)
37.0%
(3,913.1)
37.0%
2,226.0
23.0%
2,292.8
23.0%
2,361.6
23.0%
2,432.4
23.0%
(290.4)
3.0%
(299.1)
3.0%
(308.0)
3.0%
(317.3)
3.0%
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2,617.3
4.0%
517.9
4.0%
3,135.1
4.0%
2,722.0
4.0%
538.6
4.0%
3,260.5
4.0%
2,830.9
4.0%
560.1
4.0%
3,391.0
4.0%
2,944.1
4.0%
582.5
4.0%
3,526.6
4.0%
(1,473.5)
47.0%
(1,532.5)
47.0%
(1,593.8)
47.0%
(1,657.5)
47.0%
1,661.6
53.0%
1,728.1
53.0%
1,797.2
53.0%
1,869.1
53.0%
(1,097.3)
35.0%
(1,141.2)
35.0%
(1,186.8)
35.0%
(1,234.3)
35.0%
564.3
18.0%
586.9
18.0%
610.4
18.0%
634.8
18.0%
(78.4)
2.5%
(81.5)
2.5%
(84.8)
2.5%
(88.2)
2.5%
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
1,408.1
5.0%
1,408.1
5.0%
1,478.5
5.0%
1,478.5
5.0%
1,552.4
5.0%
1,552.4
5.0%
1,630.0
5.0%
1,630.0
5.0%
(732.2)
52.0%
(768.8)
52.0%
(807.2)
52.0%
(847.6)
52.0%
675.9
48.0%
709.7
48.0%
745.1
48.0%
782.4
48.0%
(183.0)
13.0%
(192.2)
13.0%
(201.8)
13.0%
(211.9)
13.0%
492.8
35.0%
517.5
35.0%
543.3
35.0%
570.5
35.0%
(5.6)
0.4%
(5.9)
0.4%
(6.2)
0.4%
(6.5)
0.4%
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
9,678.4
3,135.1
1,408.1
14,221.6
3.4%
9,968.8
3,260.5
1,478.5
14,707.8
3.4%
10,267.8
3,391.0
1,552.4
15,211.2
3.4%
(3,871.4)
(1,473.5)
(732.2)
(6,077.1)
42.7%
(3,987.5)
(1,532.5)
(768.8)
(6,288.8)
42.8%
8,144.5
57.3%
(3,581.0)
(1,097.3)
(183.0)
(4,861.4)
(34.2%)
CAGR
10A-14E
15E-20E
10,575.9
3,526.6
1,630.0
15,732.5
3.4%
e
5.0%
14.2%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
4.7%
3.4%
(4,107.1)
(1,593.8)
(807.2)
(6,508.1)
42.8%
(4,230.3)
(1,657.5)
(847.6)
(6,735.4)
42.8%
5.1%
5.0%
13.0%
5.8%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
3.5%
8,419.0
57.2%
8,703.0
57.2%
8,997.0
57.2%
3.8%
3.4%
(3,688.4)
(1,141.2)
(192.2)
(5,021.8)
(34.1%)
(3,799.1)
(1,186.8)
(201.8)
(5,187.7)
(34.1%)
(3,913.1)
(1,234.3)
(211.9)
(5,359.3)
(34.1%)
1.7%
3.5%
28.5%
2.6%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
3.3%
3,283.2
23.1%
3,397.2
23.1%
3,515.3
23.1%
3,637.7
23.1%
5.7%
3.5%
(290.4)
(78.4)
(5.6)
(374.4)
2.6%
(299.1)
(81.5)
(5.9)
(386.5)
2.6%
(308.0)
(84.8)
(6.2)
(399.0)
2.6%
(317.3)
(88.2)
(6.5)
(412.0)
2.6%
(6.7%)
(10.5%)
6.8%
(7.4%)
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
3.2%
(426.6)
3.0%
(441.2)
3.0%
(456.3)
3.0%
(472.0)
3.0%
(1,185.9)
(8.3%)
(39.0)
(1,226.2)
(8.3%)
(40.4)
(1,268.0)
(8.3%)
(41.8)
(1,311.3)
(8.3%)
(43.3)
389.6
715.9
206.5
403.0
740.9
213.6
416.7
766.7
220.9
431.0
793.5
228.4
432.9
1,480.6
584.4
448.0
1,531.2
604.4
463.6
1,583.6
625.1
479.8
1,637.9
646.5
10.0
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
10.0
43.0
5.3
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0
26.0
38.0
15.0

Financial Statement Projections
Step 1 - Define Operational assumptions of the model
(%)
2011E
Sales Growth (%)

EBITDA Margin (% Sales)
CapEx (% Sales)
Net Working Capital (% Sales)
DA (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
3.9%
22.3%
5.2%
(7.3%)
4.3%
34.5%
Step 2 Forecast the income statement

$M
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
2009A
2010A
9774.6
1681.6
-486.3
1,195.3
10707.4
2444.5
-463.0
1,981.5
Interest Income
Total Interest Expense
Net Interest
2011E
0.0
(838.4)
(838.4)
EBT
Tax
Net income
0.0
Step 3 - Calculate the cash flow & cash balance

$M
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Change in Net Working Capital
- Tax
- CapEx
Cash flow before financing (CFBF)
FCF (% EBITDA)
Interest Expense
Interest Income
2010A
2011A
Cash flow available for debt repayment (Free cash flow - FCF)
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Opening Cash Balance
Cash Increase/(Decrease)
Closing Cash Balance
Cash balance check
(185.0)
0.0
NOK
Step 4 -Calculate balance sheet and calculate the future balance sheets
$M
2010A
2011A
Current Working Capital

Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
Total Working Capital
Gross Property, Plant & Equipment
Less Accumulated Depreciation
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
Net Property, Plant & Equipment
2,416.5
Other Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
7,020.0
3,000.0
3,180.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
OK
OK
Total assets
Long term debt
Senior Debt
Mezzanine
Equity
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Total Stockholders' Equity
Total Liabilities & Equity
Balance check
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
5.0%
22.5%
5.2%
(7.8%)
4.2%
34.5%
5.1%
23.7%
5.0%
(8.3%)
2.8%
34.5%
4.6%
23.7%
4.5%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.5%
23.1%
4.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
(841.4)
(876.7)
(892.3)
(882.5)
(868.7)
(872.0)
(691.8)
(738.6)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
2017A
2018A
2019A
2020A
(370.0)
(555.0)
(740.0)
(573.2)
(250.0)
(2,809.8)
0.0
(2,068.4)
0.0
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
2017A
2018A
2019A
2020A
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
3,370.8
3,573.0
3,787.4
4,014.7
4,255.6
4,510.9
4,781.5
0.0
0.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
4,020.0
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
CAGR
11E-15E
16E-20E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

Financial Statement Projections
Step 1 - Define Operational assumptions of the model
(%)
2011E
Sales Growth (%)

CapEx (% Sales)
DA (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
3.9%
22.3%
5.2%
(7.3%)
4.3%
34.5%

$M
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
2009A
2010A
2011E
9774.6
1681.6
-486.3
1,195.3
10707.4
2444.5
-463.0
1,981.5
11,129.0
2,479.7
(484.1)
1,995.6
Interest Income
Total Interest Expense
Net Interest
2.6
(838.4)
(835.8)
EBT
Tax
Net income
1,159.8
(400.1)
759.6

$M
2010A
2011A
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Tax
- CapEx
FCF (% EBITDA)
2,479.7
Interest Expense
Interest Income
(838.4)
2.6
39.6
(400.1)
(580.5)
1,538.6
62.1%
702.8
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
(185.0)
517.8

Cash balance check
0.0
517.8
517.8
OK
0.0
Step 4 -Calculate balance sheet and calculate the future balance sheets
$M
2010A
2011A

Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
0.0
(776.6)
517.8
(816.2)
(776.6)
(298.4)

6,141.6
(3,725.1)
6,722.1
(4,209.2)
2,416.5
2,512.9
Other Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
Total assets
17,290.0
17,864.6
Long term debt

Senior Debt
Mezzanine
10,270.0
3,000.0
9,905.0
3,180.0
Equity
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
4,020.0
0.0
4,020.0
759.6
4,020.0
4,779.6
17,290.0
OK
17,864.6
OK

Balance check
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
5.0%
22.5%
5.2%
(7.8%)
4.2%
34.5%
5.1%
23.7%
5.0%
(8.3%)
2.8%
34.5%
4.6%
23.7%
4.5%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.5%
23.1%
4.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.4%
23.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
11,689.1
2,626.2
(494.7)
2,131.6
12,286.5
2,912.2
(339.6)
2,572.6
12,849.1
3,049.1
(340.2)
2,708.9
13,298.6
3,067.0
(351.3)
2,715.7
13,752.1
3,173.2
(362.6)
2,810.5
14,221.6
3,283.2
(374.4)
2,908.8
14,707.8
3,397.2
(386.5)
3,010.7
15,211.2
3,515.3
(399.0)
3,116.3
15,732.5
3,637.7
(412.0)
3,225.8
7.5
(841.4)
(834.0)
11.7
(876.7)
(865.0)
15.1
(892.3)
(877.2)
19.0
(882.5)
(863.6)
26.6
(868.7)
(842.1)
24.4
(872.0)
(847.7)
24.6
(691.8)
(667.2)
29.7
(738.6)
(708.9)
37.8
0.0
37.8
1,297.6
(447.7)
849.9
1,707.7
(589.1)
1,118.5
1,831.7
(631.9)
1,199.7
1,852.2
(639.0)
1,213.2
1,968.4
(679.1)
1,289.3
2,061.2
(711.1)
1,350.1
2,343.5
(808.5)
1,535.0
2,407.4
(830.6)
1,576.8
3,263.5
(1,125.9)
2,137.6
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
2017A
2018A
2019A
2020A
2,626.2
2,912.2
3,049.1
3,067.0
3,173.2
3,283.2
3,397.2
3,515.3
3,637.7
92.5
(447.7)
(607.8)
1,663.2
63.3%
106.4
(589.1)
(614.3)
1,815.2
62.3%
49.8
(631.9)
(578.2)
1,888.7
61.9%
44.3
(639.0)
(531.9)
1,940.4
63.3%
37.7
(679.1)
(412.6)
2,119.2
66.8%
39.0
(711.1)
(426.6)
2,184.4
66.5%
40.4
(808.5)
(441.2)
2,187.8
64.4%
41.8
(830.6)
(456.3)
2,270.2
64.6%
43.3
(1,125.9)
(472.0)
2,083.1
57.3%
(841.4)
7.5
(876.7)
11.7
(892.3)
15.1
(882.5)
19.0
(868.7)
26.6
(872.0)
24.4
(691.8)
24.6
(738.6)
29.7
0.0
37.8
829.3
950.2
1,011.5
1,076.8
1,277.0
1,336.8
1,520.6
1,561.3
2,120.9
(370.0)
459.3
(555.0)
395.2
(740.0)
271.5
(573.2)
503.7
(250.0)
1,027.0
(2,809.8)
(1,473.0)
0.0
1,520.6
(2,068.4)
(507.1)
0.0
2,120.9
517.8
459.3
977.1
OK
977.1
395.2
1,372.3
OK
1,372.3
271.5
1,643.8
OK
1,643.8
503.7
2,147.5
OK
2,147.5
1,027.0
3,174.5
OK
3,174.5
(1,473.0)
1,701.5
OK
1,701.5
1,520.6
3,222.1
OK
3,222.1
(507.1)
2,715.0
OK
2,715.0
2,120.9
4,835.8
OK
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015A
2016A
2017A
2018A
2019A
2020A
977.1
(908.7)
1,372.3
(1,015.2)
1,643.8
(1,064.9)
2,147.5
(1,109.2)
3,174.5
(1,146.9)
1,701.5
(1,185.9)
3,222.1
(1,226.2)
2,715.0
(1,268.0)
4,835.8
(1,311.3)
68.4
357.2
578.9
1,038.3
2,027.6
515.6
1,995.9
1,447.0
3,524.6
7,329.9
(4,703.9)
7,944.3
(5,043.4)
8,522.5
(5,383.7)
9,054.4
(5,734.9)
9,467.0
(6,097.5)
9,893.6 10,334.9 10,791.2 11,263.2

(6,471.9) (6,858.4) (7,257.4) (7,669.4)
2,626.1
2,900.8
3,138.8
3,319.5
3,369.4
3,421.7
3,476.5
3,533.8
3,593.8
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
711.8
14,938.3
18,344.6
18,908.1
19,367.8
20,007.8
21,047.2
19,587.4
21,122.4
20,630.8
22,768.4
10,103.8
3,370.8
10,196.5
3,573.0
10,360.7
3,787.4
10,760.0
4,014.7
11,482.3
4,255.6
9,706.5
4,510.9
10,785.9
4,781.5
15,034.0
0.0
16,610.8
0.0
4,020.0
849.9
4,020.0
1,118.5
4,020.0
1,199.7
4,020.0
1,213.2
4,020.0
1,289.3
4,020.0
1,350.1
4,020.0
1,535.0
4,020.0
1,576.8
4,020.0
2,137.6
4,869.9
5,138.5
5,219.7
5,233.2
5,309.3
5,370.1
5,555.0
5,596.8
6,157.6
18,344.6
OK
18,908.1
OK
19,367.8
OK
20,007.8
OK
21,047.2
OK
19,587.4
OK
21,122.4
OK
20,630.8
OK
22,768.4
OK
CAGR
11E-15E
16E-20E
4.6%
5.5%
(7.7%)
8.0%
3.4%
3.5%
3.2%
3.5%
12.4%
13.5%
12.4%
13.5%
4. VALUATION

Comparables Model
Comparables ($M)
Company to valued
Starbucks Corporation
Balance sheet
Assets
6,385.9
Book Value of Debt

549.4
Comparable companies
Tier I: Large-Cap
MCDONALD'S CORP
YUM! BRANDS INC
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
12,500.4
3,317.0
3.7
Tier II: Mid-Cap

TIM HORTONS INC
DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC
PANERA BREAD CO
449.8
2,120.7
39.0
Tier III: Small-Cap

DOMINO'S PIZZA INC
WENDY'S CO/THE
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE
1,451.3
1,357.0
27.2
Valuation ratios
PE ratio
Equity valuation
P/Sales
Equity valuation
MCDONALD'S CORP
YUM! BRANDS INC
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Mean/Median
21.34x
24.52x
0.59x
15.5x
4.26x
2.52x
0.06x
2.3x
TIM HORTONS INC

DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC
PANERA BREAD CO
Mean/Median
19.81x
15.00x
19.83x
18.2x
3.11x
0.96x
1.74x
1.9x
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC

WENDY'S CO/THE
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE
Mean/Median
16.77x
22.91x
15.43x
18.4x
0.94x
0.88x
0.77x
0.9x
OVERALL
Mean/Median
17.4x
1.7x
High
Low
24.5x
0.6x
4.3x
0.1x
Notes
Starbucks Corporation Valuation ($M)

PE ratio
P/Sales
P/EBITDA
P/Book Value
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
* Subtracted Net Debt on EV ratios
Average ratio
Starbucks Corporation
indicator
17.36x
1.69x
7.98x
6.39x
10.54x
2.11x
945.6
10,707.4
2,444.5
3,674.7
2,444.5
10,707.4
nce sheet
LTM Financial Statistics

Equity Book Value
3,674.7
LTM Revenues
10,707.4
EBITDA
2,444.5
Net income
945.6
14,389.8
1,916.0
10.5
24,074.6
11,343.0
1,835.9
8,778.4
2,425.0
363.1
4,800.6
1,163.6
178.6
1,135.6
1,842.0
595.0
2,463.6
7,113.1
1,542.5
623.7
944.6
253.7
387.0
455.6
135.0
NA
1,996.2
429.0
1,570.9
2,375.4
1,659.4
251.8
358.9
200.4
87.9
91.5
82.3
P/EBITDA
Equity valuation
P/Book Value
Equity valuation
EV/EBITDA
EV valuation
EV/Sales
EV valuation
11.67x
11.76x
0.29x
7.9x
7.12x
14.89x
10.11x
10.7x
10.25x
10.53x
17.25x
12.7x
3.74x
2.25x
3.41x
3.1x
12.29x
7.23x
10.55x
10.0x
6.75x
3.71x
4.50x
5.0x
11.08x
7.91x
11.33x
10.1x
2.80x
1.05x
1.86x
1.9x
5.86x
5.84x
6.34x
6.0x
NA
1.05x
2.96x
2.0x
9.39x
8.34x
8.80x
8.8x
1.50x
1.26x
1.06x
1.3x
8.0x
6.4x
10.5x
2.1x
14.9x
1.1x
17.2x
7.9x
3.7x
1.1x
12.3x
0.3x
#
#
Equity Valuation* ($M)

16,411.3
18,110.6
19,512.4
23,467.6
25,222.4
21,992.8
Market data
No. of shares (m)
742.6
Share price ($)

30.78
Market Valuation
Specific Value Driver (m)
-
Market Capitalisation
22,78 bil.
1,010.0
455.9
48.3
102,455.4
28,529.2
106.2
154.9
129.0
29.6
7,665.3
6,833.8
2,677.5
56.7
390.7
53.7
1,474.2
2,096.0
1,269.8
Market Valuation
Enterprise Value (Equity + Net debt)
3,060.1
Predicted Beta
89,992.6
25,545.5
6,262.4
0.71
0.87
0.91
6,910.4
7,474.2
2,874.7
0.77
0.89
1.05
2,363.4
2,992.8
1,763.4
1
0.99
1.04
3B. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Beta Analysis
Company
Company 1
Company 2
Company 3
Company 4
Company 5
Company 6
Company 7
Company 8
Company 9
Company 10
High
Low
Mean
Median
Country
Net Debt
1,088
601
147
183
312
114
95
691
139
1,127
Equity
Value
714
1,662
97
226
210
218
137
512
127
949
EV
1,803
2,263
244
409
522
332
233
1,203
266
2,076
Gearing
Debt-to-Equity
(D / D+E)
(D/E)
%
%
60.4%
26.5%
60.2%
44.7%
59.7%
34.3%
40.9%
57.4%
52.1%
54.3%
60.4%
26.5%
49.1%
53.2%
152.4%
36.1%
151.3%
81.0%
148.3%
52.3%
69.3%
134.8%
108.8%
118.7%
152.4%
36.1%
105.3%
113.7%
Effective
tax rate
%
33.3%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
28.0%
33.3%
25.0%
33.3%
Levered
Beta
1.64
1.00
1.27
1.84
1.77
0.85
0.81
1.90
1.33
1.30
1.90
0.81
1.37
1.31
Unlevered
beta
0.81
0.79
0.59
1.14
0.84
0.61
0.54
1.00
0.73
0.72
1.14
0.54
0.78
0.76

APV Model
Step 1 - Study the target, define key growth drivers and project the Income Statement
Income Statement ($M)
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
Revenues
% Growth
COGS
Gross Profit
SG&A
EBITDA
EBIT
Taxes
EBIAT
Step 2 - Calculate the discount rate, used to discount the CF and Terminal Value (TV) to the present using:
Only the unlevered cost of equity (CAPM)
Discount Rate Calculation
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Unlevered Beta
Cost of Equity (CAPM)
5.0%
8.1%
-
Step 3 - Project the targets Cash Flows ignoring the capital structure and discount them with the cost of equity
FCF ($M)
EBITDA
EBIT
Taxes
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
EBIAT
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization
Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Discount Factor
Present Value of Cash Flow
Cumulative PV of FCF
Step 4 - Determine the Terminal Value (TV), to quantify the remaining value of the target after the projection period
Choose Method:
Perpetuity Growth Method (PGM - Gordon Method)

Exit Multiple Method (EMM)
Perpetuity Growth Method

Terminal Year FCF (2020E)
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
PV of Terminal Value
Exit Multiple Method

Terminal Year EBITDA (2020E)
Exit Multiple
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
3.0%
Step 5 - Calculate the tax benefits associated with the capital structure
Interest Tax Shield Calculation ($M)
2011E
2012E
2013E
Beginning Debt
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
Repayment (End of Year)
(200.0)
(200.0)
(200.0)
800.0
600.0
400.0
Ending Debt
Cost of Debt
2010A
1,000.0
7.0%
Interest Expense
Interest Tax Shield
Discount Factor
Present Value
Cumulative PV of Tax Shields
Step 6 - Determine the Valuation:

a) the PV of FCF, PV of TV and PV of Tax shields b) Enterprise (EV)
2010A
PV of FCF
PV of TV
PV of Tax Shields
Enterprise Value
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value
Less: Total Debt
Less: Preferred Securities
Less: Noncontrolling Interest
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents
(932.1)
1,164.0
Implied Equity Value

Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
764.2
Implied Share Price
Step 7 - Implement a Sensitivity Analysis on the discount rate and Exit Multiple of Terminal Value
WACC
Enterprise Value
0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
0
0
0
0
0
6.0x
0
0
0
0
0
Exit Multiple
7.0x
0
0
$0
0
0
8.0x
0
0
0
0
0
Exit Multiple
7.0x
0
0
$0
0
0
8.0x
0
0
0
0
0
Exit Multiple
7.0x
0.00
0.00
$0.00
0.00
0.00
8.0x
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
WACC

0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
0
0
0
0
0
6.0x
0
0
0
0
0
WACC
Implied Share Price

0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.0x
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
(TV) to the present using:

Unlevering Beta
Levered Beta
Debt-to-Equity ratio (D/E)
Tax Rate
Unlevered Beta
unt them with the cost of equity

2014E
2015E
e target after the projection period

1
xit Multiple Method

erminal Year EBITDA (2020E)
7.0x
Terminal Value
scount Factor
V of Terminal Value
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
400.0
200.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(200.0)
(200.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
200.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Implied EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Value
LTM EBITDA
Implied EV/EBITDA
9.0x
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
WACC
9.0x
0
0
0
0
0
WACC
9.0x
0
0
0
0
0
WACC
f Terminal Value
0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
#DIV/0!
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
0.0
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate

Exit Multiple
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3.50%
0
0
0
0
0
4.00%
0
0
0
0
0
PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise Value

Exit Multiple
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
9.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Implied Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA

Exit Multiple
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
8.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
9.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
CAGR
10A-15E
16E-20E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

APV Model
Step 1 - Study the target, define key growth drivers and project the Income Statement
Income Statement ($M)
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
Revenues
% Growth
COGS
11129.0
NA
-4634.3
11689.1
5.0%
-4875.5
12286.5
5.1%
-5234.3
Gross Profit
6,494.7
6,813.6
7,052.2
SG&A
-4015.1
-4187.4
-4140.0
EBITDA
2,479.7
2,626.2
2,912.2
-484.1
-494.7
-339.6
EBIT
1,995.6
2,131.6
2,572.6
Taxes
(688.5)
(735.4)
(887.6)
EBIAT
1,307.1
1,396.2
1,685.1
Step 2 - Calculate the discount rate, used to discount the CF and Terminal Value (TV) to the present using:
Only the unlevered cost of equity (CAPM)
Discount Rate Calculation
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Unlevered Beta
Cost of Equity (CAPM)
5.0%
8.1%
0.8
11.3%
Step 3 - Project the targets Cash Flows ignoring the capital structure and discount them with the cost of equity
FCF ($M)
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
EBITDA
2,479.7
2,626.2
2,912.2
(484.1)
(494.7)
(339.6)
EBIT
1,995.6
2,131.6
2,572.6
Taxes
(688.5)
(735.4)
(887.6)
EBIAT
1,307.1
1,396.2
1,685.1
484.1
494.7
339.6
(580.5)
(607.83)
(614.32)
39.6
92.5
106.4
1,250.3
1,375.5
1,516.8
0.898
0.807
0.725
Present Value of Cash Flow
1,123.3
1,110.2
1,099.9
Cumulative PV of FCF
$9,504.6
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization

Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Discount Factor
Step 4 - Determine the Terminal Value (TV), to quantify the remaining value of the target after the projection period
Choose Method:
Perpetuity Growth Method (PGM - Gordon Method)

Exit Multiple Method (EMM)
Perpetuity Growth Method

Terminal Year FCF (2020E)
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
Exit Multiple Method

Terminal Year EBITDA (2020E)
Exit Multiple
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
$2,096.1
3.0%
$25,987.5
0.34
$8,902.4
Step 5 - Calculate the tax benefits associated with the capital structure
Interest Tax Shield Calculation ($M)
2011E
2012E
2013E
Beginning Debt
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
Repayment (End of Year)
(200.0)
(200.0)
(200.0)
800.0
600.0
400.0
(56.0)
(42.0)
(28.0)
Interest Tax Shield
19.3
14.5
9.7
Discount Factor
0.935
0.873
0.816
Present Value
18.1
12.7
7.9
Cumulative PV of Tax Shields
$42.3
Ending Debt
Cost of Debt
Interest Expense
2010A
1,000.0
7.0%
Step 6 - Determine the Valuation:

a) the PV of FCF, PV of TV and PV of Tax shields b) Enterprise (EV)
2010A
9504.6
8902.4
42.3
$18,449.2
PV of FCF
PV of TV
PV of Tax Shields
Enterprise Value
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Enterprise Value
Less: Total Debt
Less: Preferred Securities
Less: Noncontrolling Interest
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents
$18,449.2
(932.1)
1,164.0
$18,681.1
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
764.2
Implied Share Price
$24.4
Step 7 - Implement a Sensitivity Analysis on the discount rate and Exit Multiple of Terminal Value
WACC
Enterprise Value
18,449.2
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
27,738
25,399
23,415
21,712
20,235
6.0x
27,738
25,399
23,415
21,712
20,235
Exit Multiple
7.0x
27,738
25,399
$23,415
21,712
20,235
8.0x
27,738
25,399
23,415
21,712
20,235
Exit Multiple
7.0x
27,970
25,630
$23,647
21,944
20,467
8.0x
27,970
25,630
23,647
21,944
20,467
Exit Multiple
7.0x
36.60
33.54
$30.94
28.72
26.78
8.0x
36.60
33.54
30.94
28.72
26.78
WACC

18,681.1
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
27,970
25,630
23,647
21,944
20,467
6.0x
27,970
25,630
23,647
21,944
20,467
WACC
Implied Share Price

24.4
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
5.0x
36.60
33.54
30.94
28.72
26.78
6.0x
36.60
33.54
30.94
28.72
26.78
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
12849.1
4.6%
-5479.3
13298.6
3.5%
-5675.6
13752.1
3.4%
-5872.8
14221.6
3.4%
-6077.1
14707.8
3.4%
-6288.8
15211.2
3.4%
-6508.1
15732.5
3.4%
-6735.4
7,369.8
7,623.0
7,879.3
8,144.5
8,419.0
8,703.0
8,997.0
-4320.7
-4556.0
-4706.1
-4861.4
-5021.8
-5187.7
-5359.3
3,049.1
3,067.0
3,173.2
3,283.2
3,397.2
3,515.3
3,637.7
-340.2
-351.3
-362.6
-374.4
-386.5
-399.0
-412.0
2,708.9
2,715.7
2,810.5
2,908.8
3,010.7
3,116.3
3,225.8
(934.6)
(936.9)
(969.6)
(1,003.5)
(1,038.7)
(1,075.1)
(1,112.9)
1,774.3
1,778.8
1,840.9
1,905.3
1,972.0
2,041.2
2,112.9
(TV) to the present using:

Unlevering Beta
Levered Beta
Debt-to-Equity ratio (D/E)
Tax Rate
Unlevered Beta
0.84
11.1%
34.5%
0.78
unt them with the cost of equity

2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
3,049.1
3,067.0
3,173.2
3,283.2
3,397.2
3,515.3
3,637.7
(340.2)
(351.3)
(362.6)
(374.4)
(386.5)
(399.0)
(412.0)
2,708.9
2,715.7
2,810.5
2,908.8
3,010.7
3,116.3
3,225.8
(934.6)
(936.9)
(969.6)
(1,003.5)
(1,038.7)
(1,075.1)
(1,112.9)
1,774.3
1,778.8
1,840.9
1,905.3
1,972.0
2,041.2
2,112.9
340.2
351.3
362.6
374.4
386.5
399.0
412.0
(578.21)
(531.94)
(412.56)
(426.65)
(441.23)
(456.34)
(471.97)
49.8
44.3
37.7
39.0
40.4
41.8
43.3
1,586.1
1,642.5
1,828.6
1,892.0
1,957.6
2,025.6
2,096.1
0.651
0.585
0.526
0.472
0.424
0.381
0.343
1,033.3
961.3
961.5
893.8
830.8
772.4
718.1
e target after the projection period

1
xit Multiple Method

erminal Year EBITDA (2020E)
$3,637.7
7.0x
$25,464.2
0.34
$8,723.1
Terminal Value
scount Factor
V of Terminal Value
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
400.0
200.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(200.0)
(200.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
200.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(14.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
4.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.763
0.713
0.666
0.623
0.582
0.544
0.508
3.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Implied EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Value
LTM EBITDA
$18,449.2
$2,444.5
Implied EV/EBITDA
7.5x
9.0x
36.60
33.54
30.94
28.72
26.78
WACC
9.0x
27,970
25,630
23,647
21,944
20,467
WACC
9.0x
27,738
25,399
23,415
21,712
20,235
WACC
f Terminal Value
18,449.2
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
0.5
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
7.5
8.6%
9.1%
9.6%
10.1%
10.6%
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate

Exit Multiple
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
25,039
26,278
27,738
23,188
24,210
25,399
21,584
22,435
$23,415
20,179
20,895
21,712
18,940
19,547
20,235
3.50%
29,484
26,800
24,556
22,653
21,019
4.00%
31,611
28,475
25,900
23,748
21,922
PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise Value

Exit Multiple
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
28.7%
34.5%
40.2%
46.0%
30.0%
36.0%
42.0%
48.0%
31.1%
37.3%
43.5%
49.7%
32.0%
38.4%
44.8%
51.2%
32.8%
39.4%
45.9%
52.5%
9.0x
51.7%
54.0%
55.9%
57.6%
59.1%
Implied Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA

Exit Multiple
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
11.3x
11.3x
11.3x
10.4x
10.4x
10.4x
9.6x
9.6x
9.6x
8.9x
8.9x
8.9x
8.3x
8.3x
8.3x
8.0x
11.3x
10.4x
9.6x
8.9x
8.3x
9.0x
11.3x
10.4x
9.6x
8.9x
8.3x
CAGR
10A-15E
16E-20E
4.6%
3.4%
4.1%
3.4%
5.5%
3.5%
8.0%
3.5%
8.0%
3.5%
4C. LBO
x Step 1 - Determine the Sources and Uses of funds

Sources of Funds
x EBITDA
Uses
Senior debt
Mezzanine
Total debt
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
40.00%
15.00%
#DIV/0!
Equity
Total Equity
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
45.00%
Total sources
S&U check
0.0
OK
EBITDA (07)
Multiple
#DIV/0!
Enterprise value
5.00%
Fees (%)
#DIV/0!
Total Uses
6.0x
x Step 2 Define the assumptions of the model

(%)
2009A
2010A
Sales Growth (%)

DA (% Sales)
Change in Working Capital (% Sales)
CapEx (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
Cash Sweep (% of Excess Cash)
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
16%
32%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
16%
32%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
16%
33%
3%
3%
3%
24%
75%
10%
34%
3%
3%
3%
24%
75%
7%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
x Step 3 Define the debt schedule and pricing

Debt Structure
Term (Years)
Senior debt
Interest rate
Fixed charges cover
Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
2009A
2010A
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
7.55%
7.55%
7.55%
7.55%
7.55%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mezzanine
Interest rate - PIK
Interest rate - cash
Opening Balance
Interest expense - PIK
Interest expense - cash
Closing Balance
Total Senior debt
Total debt
x EBITDA Amount
Balloon
Bullet
Senior debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
LIBOR
Debt Repayment Schedule
Amort.
5
7
0.0
x Step 4 Forecast the Income Statement

M
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation&Amortisation
EBIT
2009A
2010A
627.4
188.2
769.0
230.7
65.1
76.4
Interest
Senior debt
Mezzanine PIK
Mezzanine Cash
Total Cash interest (Senior debt + Mezzanine cash)
Total Interest (Cash interest + Mezzanine PIK)
Interest check
EBT
Tax
Net income
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
x Step 5 - Calculate the cash flow & cash balance

M
2009A
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Change in Working Capital
- Tax
- CapEx
FCF (% EBITDA)
2010A

Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Cash Sweep
Cash balance check
0.0
NOK
x Step 6 Calculate the credit statistics

M
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
EBITDA
Net Senior debt
Net Total debt
CapEx
Leverage ratios (maximum)
1. Net Senior debt/EBITDA
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
2. Net Total debt/EBITDA
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Interest cover ratios (minimum)
1. EBITDA/Cash interest
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
2. (EBITDA-Capex)/Cash interest
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
Cash cover (minimum)

CFBF/(Cash interest+Debt Repayment)*
Covenant
Headroom
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
*Also known as fixed charges cover

x Step 7 Calculate the IRR and sensitivity analysis
Returns Analysis - Sensitivity exit year vs exit multiple
Year of Exit
EBITDA
Total debt
Closing cash position
2014
0.0
0.0
0.0
2015
0.0
0.0
0.0
2016
0.0
0.0
0.0
Proceeds to Equity
2014
2015
2016
Total equity at entry
2014
IRR
2015
2016
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
EBITDA Exit Multiple

5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2016E
2017E
5%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
5%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
Margin
Interest rate
3.25%
7.55%
4.00%
5.00%
8.30%
4.30%
2016E
2017E
7.55%
7.55%
0%
0%
0.0
0.0
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
0%
100%
0.0
0.0
2016E
2017E
OK
OK
0.0
0.0
2016E
2017E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.0
0.0
NOK
NOK
2016E
2017E
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
1.0x
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.9x
#DIV/0!
x Step 1 - Determine the Sources and Uses of funds

Sources of Funds
x EBITDA
Uses
Senior debt
Mezzanine
Total debt
581.3
218.0
799.3
2.5x
0.9x
3.5x
40.00%
15.00%
55.00%
Equity
Total Equity
654.0
654.0
2.8x
2.8x
45.00%
Total sources
S&U check
1,453.3
OK
EBITDA (07)
Multiple
230.7
6.0x
45.00%
Enterprise value
5.00%
Fees (%)
1,384.1
69.2
100.00%
Total Uses
1,453.3
x Step 2 Define the assumptions of the model

(%)
2009A
2010A
Sales Growth (%)

DA (% Sales)
Change in Working Capital (% Sales)
CapEx (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
16%
32%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
16%
32%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
16%
33%
3%
3%
3%
24%
75%
10%
34%
3%
3%
3%
24%
75%
7%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
x Step 3 Define the debt schedule and pricing

Debt Structure
Term (Years)
Senior debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
LIBOR
Debt Repayment Schedule
Senior debt
Interest rate
Fixed charges cover
Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
2009A
Total Senior debt

Total debt
x EBITDA Amount
Balloon
Bullet
2.5x
0.9x
581.3
218.0
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
581.3
7.55%
1.0x
10%
581.3
(58.1)
(37.0)
(43.9)
486.2
7.55%
1.0x
15%
486.2
(87.2)
(37.1)
(36.7)
361.8
7.55%
1.0x
20%
361.8
(116.3)
(66.3)
(27.3)
179.3
7.55%
1.0x
25%
179.3
(145.3)
(34.0)
(13.5)
0.0
7.55%
1.0x
30%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
0%
218.0
0.0
(10.9)
(18.1)
228.9
0%
228.9
0.0
(11.4)
(19.0)
240.3
0%
240.3
0.0
(12.0)
(19.9)
252.4
0%
252.4
0.0
(12.6)
(20.9)
265.0
0%
265.0
0.0
(13.2)
(22.0)
278.2
486.2
715.1
361.8
602.2
179.3
431.7
0.0
265.0
0.0
278.2
Mezzanine
Interest rate - PIK
Interest rate - cash
Opening Balance
Interest expense - PIK
Interest expense - cash
Closing Balance
Amort.
5
7
218.0
x Step 4 Forecast the Income Statement

M
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
892.0
285.4
(26.8)
258.7
1,034.7
331.1
(31.0)
300.1
1,200.3
396.1
(36.0)
360.1
1,320.3
448.9
(39.6)
409.3
1,412.7
494.5
(42.4)
452.1
(43.9)
(10.9)
(18.1)
(62.0)
(72.9)
OK
185.8
(44.6)
141.2
(36.7)
(11.4)
(19.0)
(55.7)
(67.2)
OK
232.9
(55.9)
177.0
(27.3)
(12.0)
(19.9)
(47.3)
(59.3)
OK
300.8
(72.2)
228.6
(13.5)
(12.6)
(20.9)
(34.5)
(47.1)
OK
362.2
(86.9)
275.3
0.0
(13.2)
(22.0)
(22.0)
(35.2)
OK
416.8
(100.0)
316.8
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Change in Working Capital
- Tax
- CapEx
Cash flow before financing
FCF (% EBITDA)
285.4
331.1
396.1
448.9
494.5
(35.7)
(44.6)
(35.7)
169.5
59.4%
(41.4)
(55.9)
(41.4)
192.4
58.1%
(36.0)
(72.2)
(36.0)
251.9
63.6%
(39.6)
(86.9)
(39.6)
282.8
63.0%
(56.5)
(100.0)
(56.5)
281.4
56.9%

(62.0)
107.5
(55.7)
136.7
(47.3)
204.6
(34.5)
248.3
(22.0)
259.4
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Cash Sweep
(58.1)
49.4
(37.0)
(87.2)
49.5
(37.1)
(116.3)
88.3
(66.3)
(145.3)
102.9
(34.0)
0.0
259.4
0.0

Cash balance check
0.0
12.3
12.3
OK
12.3
12.4
24.7
OK
24.7
22.1
46.8
OK
46.8
69.0
115.8
OK
115.8
259.4
375.2
OK
Revenue
EBITDA
Depreciation&Amortisation
EBIT
2009A
2010A
627.4
188.2
769.0
230.7
65.1
76.4
Interest
Senior debt
Mezzanine PIK
Mezzanine Cash
Total Interest (Cash interest + Mezzanine PIK)
Interest check
EBT
Tax
Net income
x Step 5 - Calculate the cash flow & cash balance
M
2009A
2010A
x Step 6 Calculate the credit statistics

M
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
EBITDA
Net Senior debt
Net Total debt
CapEx
2009A
2010A
285.4
473.8
702.7
(62.0)
(35.7)
331.1
337.1
577.5
(55.7)
(41.4)
396.1
132.5
384.9
(47.3)
(36.0)
448.9
(115.8)
149.2
(34.5)
(39.6)
494.5
(375.2)
(97.0)
(22.0)
(56.5)

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
1.7x
20.0%
228.4
2.08x
2.10x
21.0%
1.0x
20.0%
264.9
1.27x
1.25x
18.6%
0.3x
22.5%
307.0
0.43x
0.45x
25.7%
(0.3x)
22.5%
347.9
(0.33x)
(0.35x)
26.3%
(0.8x)
25.0%
370.8
(1.01x)
(1.00x)
24.1%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
2.5x
20.0%
228.4
3.08x
3.10x
20.6%
1.7x
20.0%
264.9
2.18x
2.20x
20.7%
1.0x
22.5%
307.0
1.25x
1.25x
22.3%
0.3x
22.5%
347.9
0.43x
0.45x
26.1%
(0.2x)
25.0%
370.8
(0.26x)
(0.25x)
21.6%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.6x
20.0%
228.4
3.68x
3.70x
19.7%
5.9x
20.0%
264.9
4.76x
4.75x
20.1%
8.4x
22.5%
307.0
6.49x
6.50x
22.4%
13.0x
22.5%
347.9
10.09x
10.10x
22.4%
22.5x
25.0%
370.8
16.86x
16.85x
25.1%
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.0x
20.0%
228.4
3.11x
3.10x
23.1%
5.2x
20.0%
264.9
4.01x
4.00x
23.1%
7.6x
22.5%
307.0
5.73x
5.75x
24.5%
11.9x
22.5%
347.9
8.94x
8.95x
24.6%
19.9x
25.0%
370.8
14.29x
14.30x
28.2%

Covenant
Headroom
1.4x
1.0x
29.1%
1.3x
1.0x
25.7%
1.5x
1.0x
35.1%
1.6x
1.0x
36.4%
12.8x
1.0x
92.2%

x Step 7 Calculate the IRR and sensitivity analysis
Year of Exit
EBITDA
Total debt
Closing cash position
2014
448.9
265.0
115.8
2015
494.5
278.2
375.2
2016
519.2
292.1
647.6
Proceeds to Equity
2014
2015
2016
Total equity at entry
654.0
2014
IRR
2015
2016
33.8%
40.4%
46.3%
31.5%
36.2%
40.3%
28.5%
32.1%
35.2%

5.0x 2,095.3
6.0x 2,544.2
7.0x 2,993.1
2,569.2
3,063.7
3,558.1
2,951.3
3,470.5
3,989.7
2016E
2017E
5%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
5%
35%
3%
4%
4%
24%
75%
Margin
Interest rate
3.25%
7.55%
4.00%
5.00%
8.30%
4.30%
2016E
2017E
7.55%
1.0x
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.55%
0.9x
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.0%
8.3%
5.0%
8.3%
0%
278.2
0.0
(13.9)
(23.1)
292.1
100%
292.1
(306.8)
(14.6)
(24.2)
0.0
0.0
292.1
0.0
0.0
2016E
2017E
1,483.4
519.2
(44.5)
474.7
1,557.5
545.1
(46.7)
498.4
0.0
(13.9)
(23.1)
(23.1)
(37.0)
OK
437.7
(105.0)
332.6
0.0
(14.6)
(24.2)
(24.2)
(38.9)
OK
459.6
(110.3)
349.3
2016E
2017E
519.2
545.1
(59.3)
(105.0)
(59.3)
295.5
56.9%
(62.3)
(110.3)
(62.3)
310.2
56.9%
(23.1)
272.4
(24.2)
286.0
0.0
272.4
0.0
(306.8)
(20.8)
0.0
375.2
272.4
647.6
OK
647.6
(20.8)
626.8
OK
2016E
2017E
519.2
(647.6)
(355.4)
(23.1)
(59.3)
545.1
(626.8)
(626.8)
(24.2)
(62.3)
(1.2x)
25.0%
389.4
(1.66x)
(1.65x)
24.4%
(1.1x)
25.0%
408.9
(1.53x)
(1.55x)
25.8%
(0.7x)
25.0%
389.4
(0.91x)
(0.90x)
23.9%
(1.1x)
25.0%
408.9
(1.53x)
(1.55x)
25.8%
22.5x
25.0%
389.4
16.86x
16.85x
25.1%
22.5x
25.0%
408.9
16.86x
16.85x
25.1%
19.9x
25.0%
389.4
14.29x
14.30x
28.2%
19.9x
25.0%
408.9
14.29x
14.30x
28.2%
12.8x
1.0x
92.2%
0.9x
0.9x
4.0%

Balance Sheet Simplification
Initial form of the Balance sheet
Closing Balance Sheet*
Current Assets
Short-Term Investments
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Deferred Income Taxes, Net
Other current assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed (non-current) Assets
Gross PPE
Accumulated Depreciation
Net PPE
Other Long term assets
Total Fixed Assets
Goodwill and other
Adaptation of the Balance sheet

Last fiscal
year
1,164.0
285.7
302.7
543.3
304.2
156.5
2,756.4
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
533.3
679.7
Total Assets
6,385.9
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue
282.6
1,082.4
414.1
Total Current Liabilities

Long Term debt
Other Long Term Liabilities
Closing Balance Sheet

Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Working Capital
Last fiscal
year
2,756.4
(1,779.1)
977.3
Final balance sheet (before adjustments)

Last fiscal
Closing Balance Sheet
year
Working Capital
Net working Capital

Gross PPE
Net PPE
Total Fixed Assets
Goodwill
Total Assets
Long Term debt
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
533.3
679.7
4,606.8
932.1

Gross PPE
Net PPE
Total Fixed Assets
Goodwill
Total Assets
Long Term debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
1,753.9
(776.6)
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
533.3
679.7
4,606.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
1,779.1
Mezzanine
Existing debt (to be refinanced)
549.4
382.7
0.0
932.1
Total Liabilities
2,711.2
Equity
Common stock
Retained Earnings
146.3
3,528.4
Equity
Common stock
Retained Earnings
146.3
3,528.4
Equity
Common stock
Retained Earnings
146.3
3,528.4
6,385.9
4,606.8
4,606.8
* Note: Balance Sheet as of September 2010
Step 1 - Determine the Sources and Uses of funds

Pro Forma Capitalisation
Sources of Funds
$M
x EBITDA
3,700.0
3,700.0
0.0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
3,000.0
10,400.0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Shareholder loan
Ordinary Equity
From fund
Sweet Equity (from management)
-10,400.0
0.0
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Split to mng
#DIV/0!
Total Institutional Equity

Total Ordinary equity
Total Sweet Equity
Total Equity
-10,400.0
0.0
0.0
-10,400.0
Senior debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
Total debt
Total sources
S&U check
Capital Structure Selected

Uses
$M
EBITDA
Multiple
7.0x
Post Crisis Bank and Mezz

Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
RCF
Capex
3,700.0
3,700.0
0.0
3,000.0
750.0
750.0
1
2
3
4
Enterprise Value
Equity acquisition cost
Ref. existing Net debt
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Fees
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Total Uses
1.50%
178.5
OK
Step 2 Define the operational assumptions of the model

(%)
Case
Base Case
Stress Case
Base Case
1
2
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
Sales Growth (%)

Capex (% Sales)
DA (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
Shareholder loan PIK tax deductibility (%)
Sales Growth (%)
Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
10.0%
10.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
1.0%
1.0%

Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
Capex (% Sales)
Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
(1.0%)
Amort.
x EBITDA
Amount
Spread
Interest rate
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
750.0
750.0
3,700.0
3,700.0
0.0
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
5.00%
0.00%
Bullet
#DIV/0!
3,000.0
15
Bullet
#DIV/0!
-10,400.0

Debt Structure
Term
(Years)
Senior debt
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Post Crisis Bank and Mezz
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
5.00%
0.00%
6.00%
6.00%
6.50%
6.50%
14.00%
-0.25%
Base Rates
$ 3m LIBOR forward curve
$ 3yr SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
Fixed Base Rate
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
0.0000%
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
0.00%
-
50.00%
1
2
Step 4 Define the senior debt repayment schedule

Senior Debt Repayment Schedule
RCF Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
2009A
2010A
Commitment
Undrawn
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
Interest expense
Capex Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
Commitment
Undrawn
Opening Balance
Draw down
Closing Balance
Interest expense
Term Loan A
Base Rate
Interest rate
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Fixed Charges Cover

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan B
Base Rate
Interest rate
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan C
Base Rate
Interest rate
0.0

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Step 5 Define the Mezzanine/Unsecured Bond and Shareholder Loan repayment schedule
Mezzanine and SH Rep. Schedule
Mezzanine
Base Rate
PIK Element
Cash Element
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
Total Senior debt
Total debt (SHL not included)
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
14.00%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

$M
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
NOK
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Adj.
2010PF
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Interest Income
Interest expense
Senior debt (TLa, TLb, TLc or Senior Secured Bond)
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Mezzanine PIK
Mezzanine Cash
Shareholder loan PIK
Total Cash interest (Sen. debt + RCF + Capex + Mezz. cash)
Total Interest (Cash Interest + Mezz. PIK + SHL PIK)
Net Interest
EBT
Taxable income
Tax
Net income
$M
2009A
2010A
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Tax
- Capex
+ Facility funded capex
FCF (% EBITDA)
Interest Income
Cash flow available for debt repayment (Free Cash Flow - FCF)
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Cash Sweep
RCF Drawdown/Repayment
Cash balance check
Step 8 - Calculate the sequential cash sweep
$M
2010A
Term Loan A
Cash Sweep available
Outstanding debt before sweep
Effective sweep to Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Effective sweep to Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Effective sweep to Term Loan C
Apply CS
1.0
Step 9 - Input the closing balance sheet and make adjustments

$M
2010A

Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
Other Long Term Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
Fees
Total assets
Long term debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
Equity
Shareholder loan
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Total Liabilities&Equity
Balance check
0.0
OK
OK
OK
Step 10 - Link the pro-forma balance sheet and calculate the future balance sheets
$M
Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
Other Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
Total assets
Long term debt
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
2010PF
2011E
2012E
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
Equity
Shareholder loan
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Balance check
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
Step 11 Calculate the credit statistics

$M
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
0.00x
#DIV/0!
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
20.0%
20.0%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
0.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
1.00x
-
EBITDA
Net Senior debt
Net Total debt
Net Cash interest (RCF+Capex+Sen.debt+Mezz.Cash-Int.Income)
Capex
% Debt / Total Capitalization

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Step 12 Calculate the IRR and sensitivity analysis
Institutional Equity at Entry
Ordinary equity split (to fund)
EBITDA
Total debt (excluding SHL)
Closing Cash position
SHL
-1
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
6.0x
(EV-Net debt)
(EV-Net debt-SHL)
(take into account sweet equity split)
(add back the SHL)
Entry year
Exit year (middle range)
#DIV/0!
Base Case
0
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
1
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
-1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.0x
8.0x
6.0x
Stress case
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.0x
2010
1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.0x
Proceeds to equity
Proceeds to equity
Proceeds to ordinary equity
Proceeds to institutional equity
Total proceeds to fund
Step 1 - Determine the Sources and Uses of funds

Pro Forma Capitalisation
Sources of Funds
$M
x EBITDA
Senior debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
Total debt
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
1.8x
1.6x
1.6x
20.22%
17.97%
17.97%
3,000.0
15,500.0
1.2x
6.3x
13.48%
69.65%
Shareholder loan
Ordinary Equity
From fund
Sweet Equity (from management)
2,735.5
4,020.0
4,000.0
20.0
1.1x
1.6x
12.29%
18.06%
Split to mng
0.50%
Total Institutional Equity

Total Ordinary equity
Total Sweet Equity
Total Equity
6,735.5
4,020.0
20.0
6,755.5
Total sources
S&U check
22,255.5
OK
Capital Structure Selected

Uses
$M
EBITDA
Multiple
Enterprise Value
30.35%
Fees
9.1
100.00%
Total Uses
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
RCF
Capex
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
750.0
750.0
1
2
3
4
22,000.5
Equity acquisition cost

Ref. existing Net debt
2.8x
Pre Crisis Bank and Mezz
2,444.5
9.0x
1.50%
22,822.3
(821.8)
255.0
22,255.5
Step 2 Define the operational assumptions of the model

(%)
Case
Base Case
Stress Case
Base Case
1
2
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
13.9%
25.3%
4.2%
(7.3%)
4.3%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
15.0%
25.5%
4.2%
(7.8%)
4.2%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
11.1%
26.7%
4.0%
(8.3%)
2.8%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
10.6%
26.7%
3.5%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
9.5%
26.1%
3.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
6.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
6.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
6.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
4.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
4.4%
26.1%
2.0%
(8.3%)
2.6%
34.5%
3.0%
50%
Sales Growth (%)

Capex (% Sales)
DA (% Sales)
Tax (% EBT)
Shareholder loan PIK tax deductibility (%)
Sales Growth (%)
Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
10.0%
3.9%
2.0%
10.0%
5.0%
4.0%
6.0%
5.1%
3.5%
6.0%
4.6%
3.5%
6.0%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
3.0%
3.0%
3.4%
3.0%
1.0%
3.4%
3.0%
1.0%
3.4%
3.0%

Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
3.0%
22.3%
15.0%
3.0%
22.5%
15.0%
3.0%
23.7%
16.0%
3.0%
23.7%
19.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
3.0%
23.1%
20.0%
Capex (% Sales)
Base Case
Stress Case
Pre crisis adj.
(1.0%)
5.2%
2.0%
(1.0%)
5.2%
2.0%
(1.0%)
5.0%
1.0%
(1.0%)
4.5%
1.0%
(1.0%)
4.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
(1.0%)
3.0%
2.0%
Interest rate

Debt Structure
Term
(Years)
Amort.
x EBITDA
Amount
Spread
6
6
6
7
8
Bullet
Balloon
Bullet
Bullet
1.8x
1.6x
1.6x
750.0
750.0
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.50%
3.75%
Bullet
1.2x
3,000.0
15
Bullet
1.1x
2,735.5
Senior debt
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
PIK Element
Cash Element
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
LIBOR
Cash Interest
Pre Crisis Bank and Mezz
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
3.50%
3.75%
5.00%
5.00%
4.00%
4.00%
12.00%
0.78%
Base Rates
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
1.0284%
1.1897%
2.1835%
3.1046%
3.7966%
4.2812%
4.5268%
4.5486%
4.7695%
4.8068%
1.0760%
0.0000%
1.1566%
0.0000%
1.6535%
0.0000%
2.1141%
0.0000%
2.4601%
0.0000%
2.7024%
0.0000%
2.8252%
0.0000%
2.8361%
0.0000%
2.9465%
0.0000%
2.9652%
0.0000%
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
1.08%
4.33%
1.30%
1.16%
4.41%
1.30%
1.65%
4.90%
1.30%
2.11%
5.36%
1.30%
2.46%
5.71%
1.30%
2.70%
5.95%
1.30%
2.83%
-
2.84%
-
2.95%
-
2.97%
-
Commitment
Undrawn
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0
750.0

0.0
576.1
576.1
576.1
644.5
1,220.6
1,220.6
723.8
1,944.5
1,944.5
770.6
2,715.0
2,715.0
1,292.4
4,007.5
4,007.5
1,356.4
5,363.9
5,363.9
1,179.1
6,543.0
6,543.0
738.5
7,281.5
7,281.5
(849.3)
6,432.2
6,432.2
4,112.9
10,545.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.08%
4.33%
1.30%
750.0
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.16%
4.41%
1.30%
1.65%
4.90%
1.30%
2.11%
5.36%
1.30%
2.46%
5.71%
1.30%
2.70%
5.95%
1.30%
2.83%
-
2.84%
-
2.95%
-
2.97%
-
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
650.0
0%
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
500.0
0%
100.0
0.0
150.0
250.0
500.0
0%
250.0
0.0
750.0
100%
250.0
(250.0)
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
750.0
0%
0.0
0.0
250.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(9.8)
0.0
(9.8)
(2.5)
(8.5)
(9.4)
(6.5)
(14.3)
(6.5)
(7.4)
(9.8)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.08%
4.33%
1.16%
4.41%
1.65%
4.90%
2.11%
5.36%
2.46%
5.71%
2.70%
5.95%
2.83%
6.08%
2.84%
6.09%
2.95%
6.20%
2.97%
6.22%
$ 3m LIBOR forward curve

$ 3yr SWAP Rate
% Swaped
Floating Base Rate
Fixed Base Rate
1.1235%
50.00%
1
2
Step 4 Define the senior debt repayment schedule

Senior Debt Repayment Schedule
RCF Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
2009A
2010A
100.0
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
0.0
Interest expense
Capex Facility
Base Rate
Interest rate
Commitment fee
Commitment
Undrawn
Opening Balance
Draw down
Closing Balance
0.0
Interest expense
Term Loan A
Base Rate
Interest rate
Fixed Charges Cover

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan B
Base Rate
Interest rate
4,500.0

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
Term Loan C
Base Rate
Interest rate
2.2x
2.1x
2.0x
1.9x
4.5x
3.9x
2.6x
1.2x
0.8x
5.0%
4,500.0
(225.0)
(576.1)
(194.7)
3,698.9
10.0%
3,698.9
(450.0)
(644.5)
(163.0)
2,604.4
15.0%
2,604.4
(675.0)
(723.8)
(127.7)
1,205.5
20.0%
1,205.5
(900.0)
(305.5)
(64.7)
0.0
20.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
30.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.08%
4.58%
1.16%
4.66%
1.65%
5.15%
2.11%
5.61%
2.46%
5.96%
2.70%
6.20%
2.83%
6.33%
2.84%
6.34%
2.95%
6.45%
2.97%
6.47%
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(183.0)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(186.3)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(206.1)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
(465.0)
(224.6)
3,535.0
0.0%
3,535.0
0.0
(1,292.4)
(210.7)
2,242.5
0.0%
2,242.5
0.0
(1,356.4)
(139.1)
886.1
100.0%
886.1
(886.1)
0.0
(56.0)
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.08%
4.83%
1.16%
4.91%
1.65%
5.40%
2.11%
5.86%
2.46%
6.21%
2.70%
6.45%
2.83%
6.58%
2.84%
6.59%
2.95%
6.70%
2.97%
6.72%
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(193.0)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(196.3)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(216.1)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(234.6)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(248.4)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
(258.1)
4,000.0
0.0%
4,000.0
0.0
(1,179.1)
(263.0)
2,820.9
100.0%
2,820.9
(2,820.9)
0.0
(185.8)
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.30
4,000.0

Opening Balance
Cash sweep
Interest expense
Closing Balance
4,000.0
Step 5 Define the Mezzanine/Unsecured Bond and Shareholder Loan repayment schedule
Mezzanine and SH Rep. Schedule
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
1.08%
5.00%
5.08%
1.16%
5.00%
5.16%
1.65%
5.00%
5.65%
2.11%
5.00%
6.11%
2.46%
5.00%
6.46%
2.70%
5.00%
6.70%
2.83%
5.00%
6.83%
2.84%
5.00%
6.84%
2.95%
5.00%
6.95%
2.97%
5.00%
6.97%
0.0%
3,000.0
0.0
(150.0)
(152.3)
3,150.0
0.0%
3,150.0
0.0
(157.5)
(162.4)
3,307.5
0.0%
3,307.5
0.0
(165.4)
(187.0)
3,472.9
0.0%
3,472.9
0.0
(173.6)
(212.3)
3,646.5
0.0%
3,646.5
0.0
(182.3)
(235.6)
3,828.8
0.0%
3,828.8
0.0
(191.4)
(256.6)
4,020.3
0.0%
4,020.3
0.0
(201.0)
(274.4)
4,221.3
0.0%
4,221.3
0.0
(211.1)
(288.6)
4,432.4
100.0%
4,432.4
(4,654.0)
(221.6)
(307.9)
(0.0)
0.0%
(0.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
Shareholder loan
PIK Element
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%

Opening Balance
Closing Balance
0.0%
2,735.5
0.0
(328.3)
3,063.8
0.0%
3,063.8
0.0
(367.7)
3,431.4
0.0%
3,431.4
0.0
(411.8)
3,843.2
0.0%
3,843.2
0.0
(461.2)
4,304.4
0.0%
4,304.4
0.0
(516.5)
4,820.9
0.0%
4,820.9
0.0
(578.5)
5,399.4
0.0%
5,399.4
0.0
(647.9)
6,047.3
0.0%
6,047.3
0.0
(725.7)
6,773.0
0.0%
6,773.0
0.0
(812.8)
7,585.8
0.0%
7,585.8
0.0
(910.3)
8,496.0
11,698.9
14,848.9
10,604.4
13,911.9
9,305.5
12,778.4
7,785.0
11,431.5
6,492.5
10,321.4
4,886.1
8,906.4
2,820.9
7,042.2
0.0
4,432.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mezzanine
Base Rate
PIK Element
Cash Element
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
Total Senior debt

Total debt (SHL not included)
2009A
2010A
3,000.0
2,735.5

$M
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
9774.6
1681.6
-486.3
1,195.3
10707.4
2444.5
-463.0
1,981.5
12,199.7
3,084.2
(530.7)
2,553.6
14,033.7
3,574.0
(593.9)
2,980.1
15,592.9
4,163.7
(431.0)
3,732.7
17,242.5
4,608.9
(456.5)
4,152.4
18,880.3
4,920.7
(498.7)
4,422.0
20,090.5
5,238.4
(529.8)
4,708.7
21,379.1
5,576.9
(562.8)
5,014.2
22,751.4
5,937.6
(597.9)
5,339.7
23,757.6
6,203.1
(623.2)
5,579.9
24,809.3
6,480.8
(649.6)
5,831.2
Interest Income
Interest expense
Senior debt (TLa, TLb, TLc or Senior Secured Bond)
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Mezzanine PIK
Mezzanine Cash
Shareholder loan PIK
Total Interest (Cash Interest + Mezz. PIK + SHL PIK)
Net Interest
2.2
7.0
12.3
18.1
26.2
36.5
46.3
53.8
53.4
66.1
(570.7)
(9.8)
(9.8)
(150.0)
(152.3)
(328.3)
(742.5)
(1,220.8)
(1,218.5)
(545.5)
(9.8)
(9.8)
(157.5)
(162.4)
(367.7)
(727.5)
(1,252.6)
(1,245.6)
(550.0)
(9.8)
(10.9)
(165.4)
(187.0)
(411.8)
(757.6)
(1,334.8)
(1,322.5)
(523.8)
(9.8)
(15.9)
(173.6)
(212.3)
(461.2)
(761.8)
(1,396.6)
(1,378.5)
(459.1)
(9.8)
(20.8)
(182.3)
(235.6)
(516.5)
(725.2)
(1,424.0)
(1,397.9)
(397.2)
(9.8)
(17.2)
(191.4)
(256.6)
(578.5)
(680.7)
(1,450.7)
(1,414.2)
(319.1)
0.0
0.0
(201.0)
(274.4)
(647.9)
(593.4)
(1,442.4)
(1,396.0)
(185.8)
0.0
0.0
(211.1)
(288.6)
(725.7)
(474.4)
(1,411.1)
(1,357.3)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(221.6)
(307.9)
(812.8)
(307.9)
(1,342.3)
(1,288.9)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(910.3)
0.0
(910.3)
(844.2)
EBT
Taxable income
Tax
Net income
1,335.0
1,653.4
(570.4)
764.6
1,734.5
2,091.1
(721.4)
1,013.1
2,410.3
2,809.7
(969.3)
1,440.9
2,773.9
3,221.3
(1,111.3)
1,662.6
3,024.1
3,525.2
(1,216.2)
1,808.0
3,294.4
3,855.6
(1,330.2)
1,964.3
3,618.1
4,246.6
(1,465.1)
2,153.0
3,982.5
4,686.4
(1,616.8)
2,365.7
4,291.0
5,079.4
(1,752.4)
2,538.6
4,987.0
5,869.9
(2,025.1)
2,961.8

$M
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
EBITDA
Adjustments:
- Tax
- Capex
+ Facility funded capex
FCF (% EBITDA)
2009A
2010A
3,084.2
3,574.0
4,163.7
4,608.9
4,920.7
5,238.4
5,576.9
5,937.6
6,203.1
6,480.8
118.1
(570.4)
(514.4)
0.0
2,117.6
68.7%
196.3
(721.4)
(589.4)
0.0
2,459.4
68.8%
197.4
(969.3)
(623.7)
100.0
2,868.0
68.9%
140.7
(1,111.3)
(603.5)
150.0
3,184.8
69.1%
145.8
(1,216.2)
(566.4)
0.0
3,283.9
66.7%
100.7
(1,330.2)
(401.8)
0.0
3,607.1
68.9%
107.2
(1,465.1)
(427.6)
0.0
3,791.5
68.0%
114.1
(1,616.8)
(455.0)
0.0
3,979.9
67.0%
83.6
(1,752.4)
(475.2)
0.0
4,059.2
65.4%
87.4
(2,025.1)
(496.2)
0.0
4,046.9
62.4%

Interest Income
(742.5)
2.2
1,377.3
(727.5)
7.0
1,739.0
(757.6)
12.3
2,122.7
(761.8)
18.1
2,441.2
(725.2)
26.2
2,584.9
(680.7)
36.5
2,962.9
(593.4)
46.3
3,244.4
(474.4)
53.8
3,559.4
(307.9)
53.4
3,804.6
0.0
66.1
4,112.9
Debt Repayments
Excess Cash
Cash Sweep
(225.0)
1,152.3
(576.1)
(450.0)
1,289.0
(644.5)
(675.0)
1,447.7
(723.8)
(900.0)
1,541.2
(770.6)
0.0
2,584.9
(1,292.4)
(250.0)
2,712.9
(1,356.4)
(886.1)
2,358.3
(1,179.1)
(2,820.9)
738.5
0.0
(4,654.0)
(849.3)
0.0
0.0
4,112.9
0.0
0.0
576.1
0.0
576.1
OK
576.1
644.5
0.0
1,220.6
OK
1,220.6
723.8
0.0
1,944.5
OK
1,944.5
770.6
0.0
2,715.0
OK
2,715.0
1,292.4
0.0
4,007.5
OK
4,007.5
1,356.4
0.0
5,363.9
OK
5,363.9
1,179.1
0.0
6,543.0
OK
6,543.0
738.5
0.0
7,281.5
OK
7,281.5
(849.3)
0.0
6,432.2
OK
6,432.2
4,112.9
0.0
10,545.1
OK

RCF Drawdown/Repayment
Cash balance check
0.0
Step 8 - Calculate the sequential cash sweep

$M
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
Term Loan A
Effective sweep to Term Loan A
(576.1)
4,275.0
(576.1)
(644.5)
3,248.9
(644.5)
(723.8)
1,929.4
(723.8)
(770.6)
305.5
(305.5)
(1,292.4)
0.0
0.0
(1,356.4)
0.0
0.0
(1,179.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Term Loan B
Effective sweep to Term Loan B
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
(465.0)
4,000.0
(465.0)
(1,292.4)
3,535.0
(1,292.4)
(1,356.4)
2,242.5
(1,356.4)
(1,179.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
0.0
4,000.0
0.0
(1,179.1)
4,000.0
(1,179.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Term Loan C
Effective sweep to Term Loan C
2010A
Apply CS
1.0
Step 9 - Input the closing balance sheet and make adjustments

$M
2010A
Adj.
2010PF

Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
1753.9
(776.6)
977.3
(1,753.9)
0.0
(1,753.9)
0.0
(776.6)
(776.6)
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
533.3
679.7
0.0
0.0
19,147.6
255.0
533.3
19,827.3
255.0
4,606.8
17,648.7
22,255.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
932.1
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
(932.1)
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
0.0
Equity
Shareholder loan
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
0.0
146.3
3528.4
3,674.7
2,735.5
3,873.7
(3,528.4)
3,080.8
2,735.5
4,020.0
0.0
6,755.5
Total Liabilities&Equity
Balance check
4,606.8
OK
17,648.7
OK
22,255.5
OK

Other Long Term Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
Fees
Total assets
Long term debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
Step 10 - Link the pro-forma balance sheet and calculate the future balance sheets
$M
2010PF
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E

Cash & Equivalents
Net Working Capital
0.0
(776.6)
(776.6)
576.1
(894.7)
(318.6)
1,220.6
(1,091.0)
129.6
1,944.5
(1,288.3)
656.1
2,715.0
(1,429.0)
1,286.0
4,007.5
(1,574.8)
2,432.7
5,363.9
(1,675.5)
3,688.4
6,543.0
(1,782.7)
4,760.3
7,281.5
(1,896.8)
5,384.7
6,432.2
(1,980.4)
4,451.8
10,545.1
(2,067.8)
8,477.3

6,141.6
(3,725.1)
2,416.5
6,656.0
(4,255.8)
2,400.2
7,245.4
(4,849.7)
2,395.7
7,869.1
(5,280.6)
2,588.5
8,472.6
(5,737.2)
2,735.4
9,039.0
(6,235.9)
2,803.1
9,440.8
(6,765.6)
2,675.2
9,868.4
(7,328.4)
2,540.0
10,323.4
(7,926.3)
2,397.2
10,798.6
(8,549.5)
2,249.1
11,294.7
(9,199.1)
2,095.6
Other Assets
Total fixed assets
Goodwill
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
788.3
19,827.3
Total assets
22,255.5
22,697.2
23,140.9
23,860.2
24,637.0
25,851.4
26,979.2
27,915.9
28,397.5
27,316.5
31,188.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
250.0
0.0
250.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Long term debt

RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
3,698.9
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,150.0
2,604.4
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,307.5
1,205.5
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,472.9
0.0
3,535.0
4,000.0
3,646.5
0.0
2,242.5
4,000.0
3,828.8
0.0
886.1
4,000.0
4,020.3
0.0
0.0
2,820.9
4,221.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,432.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
Equity
Shareholder loan
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
2,735.5
4,020.0
0.0
6,755.5
3,063.8
4,020.0
764.6
7,848.4
3,431.4
4,020.0
1,777.7
9,229.1
3,843.2
4,020.0
3,218.6
11,081.8
4,304.4
4,020.0
4,881.2
13,205.5
4,820.9
4,020.0
6,689.1
15,530.0
5,399.4
4,020.0
8,653.4
18,072.8
6,047.3
4,020.0
10,806.4
20,873.7
6,773.0
4,020.0
13,172.1
23,965.1
7,585.8
4,020.0
15,710.7
27,316.5
8,496.0
4,020.0
18,672.5
31,188.6

Balance check
22,255.5
OK
22,697.2
OK
23,140.9
OK
23,860.2
OK
24,637.0
OK
25,851.4
OK
26,979.2
OK
27,915.9
OK
28,397.5
OK
27,316.5
OK
31,188.6
OK
Step 11 Calculate the credit statistics

$M
2009A
2010A
EBITDA
Net Senior debt
Net Total debt
Net Cash interest (RCF+Capex+Sen.debt+Mezz.Cash-Int.Income)
Capex
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
3,084.2
11,122.7
14,272.7
(740.3)
(514.4)
3,574.0
9,383.8
12,691.3
(720.5)
(589.4)
4,163.7
7,361.1
10,833.9
(745.3)
(623.7)
4,608.9
5,069.9
8,716.4
(743.6)
(603.5)
4,920.7
2,485.1
6,313.9
(699.0)
(566.4)
5,238.4
(477.8)
3,542.5
(644.3)
(401.8)
5,576.9
(3,722.2)
499.1
(547.1)
(427.6)
5,937.6
(7,281.5)
(2,849.2)
(420.5)
(455.0)
6,203.1
(6,432.2)
(6,432.2)
(254.5)
(475.2)
6,480.8
(10,545.1)
(10,545.1)
66.1
(496.2)
66.7%
62.5%
57.4%
51.4%
46.4%
40.0%
31.6%
19.9%
0.0%
0.0%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
3.6x
20.0%
2,467.4
4.51x
4.50x
19.9%
2.6x
20.0%
2,859.2
3.28x
3.30x
20.4%
1.8x
22.5%
3,226.9
2.28x
2.30x
23.1%
1.1x
22.5%
3,571.9
1.42x
1.40x
21.4%
0.5x
25.0%
3,690.5
0.67x
0.65x
22.3%
(0.1x)
25.0%
3,928.8
(0.12x)
(0.10x)
8.8%
(0.7x)
25.0%
4,182.7
(0.89x)
(0.90x)
25.8%
(1.2x)
25.0%
4,453.2
(1.64x)
(1.65x)
25.7%
(1.0x)
25.0%
4,652.3
(1.38x)
(1.40x)
25.9%
(1.6x)
25.0%
4,860.6
(2.17x)
(2.15x)
24.3%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.6x
20.0%
2,467.4
5.78x
5.80x
20.2%
3.6x
20.0%
2,859.2
4.44x
4.45x
20.2%
2.6x
22.5%
3,226.9
3.36x
3.35x
22.3%
1.9x
22.5%
3,571.9
2.44x
2.45x
22.8%
1.3x
25.0%
3,690.5
1.71x
1.70x
24.5%
0.7x
25.0%
3,928.8
0.90x
0.90x
24.9%
0.1x
25.0%
4,182.7
0.12x
0.10x
10.5%
(0.5x)
25.0%
4,453.2
(0.64x)
(0.65x)
26.2%
(1.0x)
25.0%
4,652.3
(1.38x)
(1.40x)
25.9%
(1.6x)
25.0%
4,860.6
(2.17x)
(2.15x)
24.3%

Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.2x
20.0%
2,467.4
3.33x
3.35x
19.6%
5.0x
20.0%
2,859.2
3.97x
3.95x
20.4%
5.6x
22.5%
3,226.9
4.33x
4.35x
22.1%
6.2x
22.5%
3,571.9
4.80x
4.80x
22.6%
7.0x
25.0%
3,690.5
5.28x
5.30x
24.7%
8.1x
25.0%
3,928.8
6.10x
6.10x
25.0%
10.2x
25.0%
4,182.7
7.65x
7.65x
25.0%
14.1x
25.0%
4,453.2
10.59x
10.60x
24.9%
24.4x
25.0%
4,652.3
18.28x
18.30x
24.9%
25.0%
4,860.6
-
Assumed Headroom
Adjusted EBITDA
Covenant Level
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
3.5x
20.0%
2,467.4
2.64x
2.65x
23.7%
4.1x
20.0%
2,859.2
3.15x
3.15x
24.0%
4.7x
22.5%
3,226.9
3.49x
3.50x
26.3%
5.4x
22.5%
3,571.9
3.99x
4.00x
25.7%
6.2x
25.0%
3,690.5
4.47x
4.45x
28.6%
7.5x
25.0%
3,928.8
5.47x
5.45x
27.4%
9.4x
25.0%
4,182.7
6.86x
6.85x
27.2%
13.0x
25.0%
4,453.2
9.51x
9.50x
27.1%
22.5x
25.0%
4,652.3
16.41x
16.40x
27.1%
25.0%
4,860.6
-
2.2x
1.00x
54.3%
2.1x
1.00x
52.1%
2.0x
1.00x
50.0%
1.9x
1.00x
47.8%
4.5x
1.00x
77.9%
3.9x
1.00x
74.2%
2.6x
1.00x
61.0%
1.2x
1.00x
17.2%
0.8x
1.00x
(22.2%)
1.00x
-

Proposed Covenant
Headroom
Step 12 Calculate the IRR and sensitivity analysis
6,735.5
99.5%
Institutional Equity at Entry

Ordinary equity split (to fund)
EBITDA
Total debt (excluding SHL)
Closing Cash position
SHL
(EV-Net debt)
2014
4,608.9
11,431.5
2,715.0
4,304.4
Base Case
2015
4,920.7
10,321.4
4,007.5
4,820.9
2016
5,238.4
8,906.4
5,363.9
5,399.4
2014
3,606.3
11,884.4
2,262.1
4,304.4
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
8.0x
Proceeds to equity
28,155.0
32,763.9
37,372.8
(EV-Net debt-SHL)
28,230.7
33,151.4
38,072.1
32,965.5
38,203.9
43,442.3

23,732.0
28,317.9
32,903.9
(add back the SHL)
38,364.9
43,603.3
48,841.7

23,850.6
28,459.5
33,068.5
(take into account sweet equity split)
33,051.6
37,972.3
42,893.0
28,090.3
32,986.5
37,882.7
32,801.5
38,013.8
43,226.2

28,036.3
32,911.2
2010
2015
Entry year
Exit year (middle range)
38,200.9
Stress case
2015
4,109.5
10,867.8
3,461.0
4,820.9
2016
4,356.1
9,659.3
4,611.0
5,399.4
9.0x
10.0x
Proceeds to equity
19,227.9
22,834.1
26,440.4
25,469.3
29,578.8
33,688.3
29,800.2
34,156.3
38,512.4

14,923.5
18,529.8
22,136.0
20,648.4
24,757.9
28,867.4
24,400.8
28,756.9
33,113.0

14,849.3
18,437.6
22,025.9
20,545.6
24,634.7
28,723.8
24,279.4
28,613.8
32,948.2

19,153.6
25,366.5
29,678.8

Model Outputs
Pre Crisis Bank and Mezz Pro Forma Capital Structure
$M
Amount
Cum. %
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Total Senior Debt
Mezzanine
Total Debt
Equity
Total Capitalization
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
12,500.0
3,000.0
15,500.0
6,755.5
22,255.5
20.2%
38.2%
56.2%
56.2%
69.6%
69.6%
100.0%
$M
2010PF
2010PF
xEBITDA
xE-C
1.8x
3.5x
5.1x
5.1x
6.3x
6.3x
9.1x
2.3x
4.3x
6.3x
6.3x
7.8x
7.8x
2,444.5
1,994.5
2011E
2012E
1
Revenue
% Growth
EBITDA
% Growth
% Margin
Capex
Change in WC
Operating Cash Flow
Net Cash Interest Expense
Taxes
Facility Funded Capex
Free Cash Flow
Cumulative Free Cash Flow
Total Debt Repayments
Cumulative Free Cash Flow
10,707.4
2,444.5
22.8%
Base
Rate
Cash
Margin
1.08%
1.08%
1.08%
3.25%
3.50%
3.75%
1.08%
4.00%
2013E
PIK
Margin
5.00%
2014E
2015E
All In
Maturity
4.33%
4.58%
4.83%
2016
2017
2018
10.08%
2019
2016E
2017E
2018E
Avg. Cost
5.63%
2019E
2020E
10
12,199.7 14,033.7 15,592.9 17,242.5 18,880.3

20,090.5
21,379.1
22,751.4
23,757.6
24,809.3
13.9%
15.0%
11.1%
10.6%
9.5%
6.4%
6.4%
6.4%
4.4%
4.4%
3,084.2
3,574.0
4,163.7
4,608.9
4,920.7
5,238.4
5,576.9
5,937.6
6,203.1
6,480.8
26.2%
15.9%
16.5%
10.7%
6.8%
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
4.5%
4.5%
25.3%
25.5%
26.7%
26.7%
26.1%
26.1%
26.1%
26.1%
26.1%
26.1%
(514.4)
(589.4)
(623.7)
(603.5)
(566.4)
(401.8)
(427.6)
(455.0)
(475.2)
(496.2)
118.1
196.3
197.4
140.7
145.8
100.7
107.2
114.1
83.6
87.4
2,688.0
3,180.9
3,737.3
4,146.1
4,500.1
4,937.3
5,256.6
5,596.7
5,811.6
6,072.0
(740.3)
(720.5)
(745.3)
(743.6)
(699.0)
(644.3)
(547.1)
(420.5)
(254.5)
66.1
(570.4)
(721.4)
(969.3)
(1,111.3) (1,216.2) (1,330.2)
(1,465.1)
(1,616.8)
(1,752.4)
(2,025.1)
0.0
0.0
100.0
150.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1,377.3
1,739.0
2,122.7
2,441.2
2,584.9
2,962.9
3,244.4
3,559.4
3,804.6
4,112.9
1,377.3
3,116.2
5,238.9
7,680.1
10,264.9
13,227.8
16,472.2
20,031.5
23,836.2
27,949.1
(801.1)
(1,094.5) (1,398.8) (1,670.6) (1,292.4) (1,606.4)
(2,065.2)
(2,820.9)
(4,654.0)
0.0
576.1
1,220.6
1,944.5
2,715.0
4,007.5
5,363.9
6,543.0
7,281.5
6,432.2
10,545.1
Balance Sheet
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Total Senior Debt
Mezzanine
Total Debt
Cash
Net Total Debt
0.0
0.0
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
12,500.0
3,000.0
15,500.0
0.0
15,500.0
0.0
0.0
3,698.9
4,000.0
4,000.0
11,698.9
3,150.0
14,848.9
576.1
14,272.7
0.0
0.0
2,604.4
4,000.0
4,000.0
10,604.4
3,307.5
13,911.9
1,220.6
12,691.3
0.0
100.0
1,205.5
4,000.0
4,000.0
9,305.5
3,472.9
12,778.4
1,944.5
10,833.9
0.0
250.0
0.0
3,535.0
4,000.0
7,785.0
3,646.5
11,431.5
2,715.0
8,716.4
0.0
250.0
0.0
2,242.5
4,000.0
6,492.5
3,828.8
10,321.4
4,007.5
6,313.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
886.1
4,000.0
4,886.1
4,020.3
8,906.4
5,363.9
3,542.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,820.9
2,820.9
4,221.3
7,042.2
6,543.0
499.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,432.4
4,432.4
7,281.5
(2,849.2)
3.6x
4.6x
4.2x
2.19x
0.0
-
2.6x
3.6x
5.0x
2.09x
0.0
-
1.8x
2.6x
5.6x
2.00x
0.0
-
1.1x
1.9x
6.2x
1.92x
0.0
-
0.5x
1.3x
7.0x
4.53x
0.0
-
(0.1x)
0.7x
8.1x
3.88x
0.0
-
(0.7x)
0.1x
10.2x
2.56x
0.0
-
(1.2x)
(0.5x)
14.1x
1.21x
0.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
6,432.2
10,545.1
(6,432.2) (10,545.1)
Credit Statistics
Total Fixed Charge Cover
Refinancing Risk
Previous Year Net Total Leverage
5.1x
6.3x
(1.0x)
(1.0x)
24.4x
0.82x
0.0
-
(1.6x)
(1.6x)
NM
0.0
-
Project PEVCE
Charts
Chart 1
Sourses of Funds
Senior debt
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Subordinated debt
Mezzanine
$M
Equity
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
0.20219721
0.179730853
0.179730853
3,000.0
0.13479814
6,755.5
0.303542944
22,255.5
Sources of Funds
20%
30%
Term Loan A
18%
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
14%
Mezzanine
18%
Equity
Chart 2
Equity breakdown
Fixed Return Instruments
Ordinary Shares - Investors
Ordinary Shares - Management
$M
2,735.5
4,000.0
20.0
0.404929317
0.592110132
0.002960551
6,755.5
Equity breakdown
0%
41%
59%
Fixed Return Instruments

Ordinary Shares - Investors
Chart 3
Breakdown of Proceeds at 9x Multiple and Exit Yr 2015
Total Proceeds
48,293.7
Total Debt
37,972.3
Shareholder Loan
33,151.4
Proceeds to PE Fund
6,630.3
Proceeds to Management
0.0
10,321.4
4,820.9
26,521.1
6,630.3
10,321.4
4,820.9
48,293.7
26,521.1
6,630.3
Total Proceeds
Total Debt
Shareholder Loan
Proceeds to PE Fund
Proceeds to
Management
Breakdown of Proceeds
EBITDA
Exit Multiple
Cash
Total Proceeds
2014
2015
2016
4,608.9
4,920.7
5,238.4
9.0
9.0
9.0
2,715.0
4,007.5
5,363.9
44,195.4 48,293.7 52,509.7
Debt
Senior Debt
Mezzanine
Proceeds to Investors
7,785.0
3,646.5
32,763.9
6,492.5
3,828.8
37,972.3
4,886.1
4,020.3
43,603.3
Shareholder Loan
Proceeds to Ords
4,304.4
28,459.5
4,820.9
33,151.4
5,399.4
38,203.9
4,304.4
22,767.6
27,072.0
4.0
4,820.9
26,521.1
31,342.0
4.7
5,399.4
30,563.1
35,962.5
5.3
5,691.9
5,691.9
6,630.3
6,630.3
7,640.8
7,640.8
Breakdown of Ordinary Shares

Proceeds to PE
Shareholder Loan
80% of Ords
Proceeds to PE
Proceeds to Management
20% of Ords
Proceeds to Mgmt
Chart 4
Returns Breakdown
Revenue growth
EBITDA mg
Leverage
Multiple arbitrage
2.62
4.75
5.61
5.61
2.12
0.87
0.00
2.62
2.12
0.87
0.00
46.7%
37.8%
15.4%
0.0%
46.7%
46.7%
84.6%
84.6%
0.0%
100.0%
15.4%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
37.8%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
46.7%
10.0%
0.0%
Revenue growth
EBITDA mg
Leverage
Multiple arbitrage
RETURNS BREAKDOWN
NOTE: THIS CALCULATES THE VALUE CREATION AT A GIVEN EV LEVEL
PLEASE NOTE: THESE CALCULATIONS ONLY WORK FOR EBITDA margins and will need to be amended to reflect
Revenue
EBITDA at entry margin
Difference in EBITDA
Value from Revenue growth
Revenue
New Revenue
Revenue at acquisition - INSERT LAST FULL YEAR REVENUES
Actual EBITDA mg
EBITDA mg at acquisition
Increase in EBITDA
Value from Revenue growth
TOTAL VALUE FROM REVENUE GROWTH
EBITDA actual
EBITDA mg
EBITDA at entry Revenues
Difference in EBITDA
Value from margin improvement
Initial Leverage
Net Leverage at exit
Value from deleveraging
Initial Multiple
Exit Multiple
Value from Multiple expansion

Total Value created
Returns breakdown
Revenues
EBITDA mg
Leverage
Multiple arbitrage
TOTAL
MM
Revenues
EBITDA mg
Leverage
Multiple arbitrage
Chart 5
Amortisation Profile
RCF Facility
Capex Facility
Term Loan A
Term Loan B
Term Loan C
Mezzanine
2010A
0.0
0.0
4,500.0
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2011E
0.0
0.0
3,698.9
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,150.0
2012E
0.0
0.0
2,604.4
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,307.5
2013E
0.0
100.0
1,205.5
4,000.0
4,000.0
3,472.9
2014E
0.0
250.0
0.0
3,535.0
4,000.0
3,646.5
Amortisation Profile
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2010A
2011E
RCF Facility
Chart 6
Uses of EBITDA
Interest Income
Interest expense
Tax
Net Capex
2012E
2013E
Capex Facility
2014E
2015E
Term Loan A
2011E
-2.2
742.5
570.4
514.4
2016E
Term Loan B
2012E
-7.0
727.5
721.4
589.4
2017E
2018E
Term Loan C
2013E
-12.3
757.6
969.3
523.7
2019E
2020E
Mezzanine
2014E
-18.1
761.8
1,111.3
453.5
2015E
-26.2
725.2
1,216.2
566.4
Net Use of Revolver

Change in NWC
Debt Repayments
Cash Sweep
Cash
0.0
-118.1
225.0
576.1
576.1
0.0
-196.3
450.0
644.5
1,220.6
0.0
-197.4
675.0
723.8
1,944.5
0.0
-140.7
900.0
770.6
2,715.0
0.0
-145.8
0.0
1,292.4
4,007.5
Uses of EBITDA
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
2011E
Interest Income
2012E
2013E
Interest expense
2014E
Tax
2015E
2016E
Net Capex
Net Use of Revolver
2011E
25.28%
2012E
25.47%
2017E
Change in NWC
2018E
Debt Repayments
Chart 7
EBITDA Margins
2013E
26.70%
2014E
26.73%
2015E
26.06%
EBITDA Margins
50.00%
45.00%
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
25.28%
25.47%
26.70%
26.73%
26.06%
26.07%
26.09%
26.10%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Chart 8
2011E
68.66%
FCF % of EBITDA
2012E
68.81%
2013E
68.88%
2014E
69.10%
2015E
66.74%
FCF % of EBITDA
75.00%
68.81%
68.66%
70.00%
68.88%
69.10%
68.86%
67.98%
66.74%
67.03%
65.00%
60.00%
55.00%
50.00%
2011
2012
2013
Chart 9
Leverage Credit Statistics
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
4.5x
3.6x
2014
2011E
3.6x
4.5x
20%
2015
2016
2012E
2.6x
3.3x
20%
2013E
1.8x
2.3x
23%
20%
2.6x
20%
3.3x
23%
2017
2014E
1.1x
1.4x
21%
2015E
0.5x
0.7x
22%
Proposed Covenant
26%
21%
22%
9%
1.8x2.3x
1.1x
1.4x
0.7x
0.5x
(0.1x)
(0.1x)
(0.9x)
(0.7x)
2011E
2012E
2013E
Chart 10
Leverage Credit Statistics
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
2014E
2015E
2011E
4.6x
5.8x
20%
2012E
3.6x
4.5x
20%
2016E
2013E
2.6x
3.4x
22%
5.8x
20%
4.6x
3.6x
2014E
1.9x
2.5x
23%
2015E
1.3x
1.7x
25%
Proposed Covenant
23%
22%
20%
2017E
25%
25%
4.5x
11%
2.6x3.4x
2.5x
1.9x
1.7x
1.3x
0.9x
0.7x
0.1x
0.1x
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
Chart 11
Interest Cover Credit Statistics
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
2011E
4.2x
3.4x
20%
20%
2015E
20%
2012E
5.0x
4.0x
20%
23%
22%
2016E
2013E
5.6x
4.4x
22%
2017E
2014E
6.2x
4.8x
23%
25%
Proposed Covenant
2015E
7.0x
5.3x
25%
25%
Headroom
25%
10.2x
8.1x
5.0x
4.2x
2011E
2012E
7.0x
4.8x
7.7x
6.1x
5.3x
4.4x
4.0x
3.4x
6.2x
5.6x
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
Chart 13
Cash Cover Credit Statistics
Proposed Covenant
Headroom
2011E
2.2x
1.0x
54%
2012E
2.1x
1.0x
52%
2013E
2.0x
1.0x
50%
FCF/(Cash Interest+Debt
Repayment)
4.5x
2014E
1.9x
1.0x
48%
2015E
4.5x
1.0x
78%
Proposed Covenant
3.9x
2.6x
2.2x
2.1x
2.0x
1.9x
1.2x
1.0x
54%
2011
1.0x
52%
2012
1.0x
1.0x
50%
2013
48%
2014
Chart 14
Enterprise Value - $b
LBO entry
NPV
APV
Comps
1.0x
78%
1.0x
74%
1.0x
61%
0.8x
1.0x
1.0x
17%
2015
Low
17,111.5
18,006.4
21,583.7
21,992.8
2016
2017
2018
-22%
2019
High
22,000.5
19,144.5
23,415.0
25,222.4
Entreprise Value - $B
23.4
22.0
25.2
19.1
18.0
21.6
21.9
NPV
APV
Comps
17.1
LBO entry
Chart 15
Revenue Growth
Market Share
Comp1
Comp2
Comp3
Comp4
Comp5
Comp6
Comp7
Comp8
Comp9
Comp10
5.0%
3.2%
2.9%
7.0%
8.9%
7.5%
5.7%
4.6%
3.5%
6.1%
6.8%
13.5%
7.9%
9.1%
2.3%
5.0%
4.6%
2.7%
5.7%
11.0%
Competition Analysis
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Chart 16
EBITDA Bridge
Entry EBITDA 2010
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Exit EBITDA 2015
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
$M
2,444.5
80.0
325.0
405.0
785.0
190.0
323.0
258.0
110.2
4,920.7
8.0%
10.0%
Cumulative
2524.5
2849.5
3254.5
4039.5
4229.5
4552.5
4810.5
4920.7
0.0
Illustrative EBITDA Bridge ($M)
323.0
785.0
190.0
258.0
405.0
325.0
80.0
2,444.5
Entry EBITDA
2010
- Management
- Management
37.8%
15.4%
0.0%
be amended to reflect the use of EBIT margins

2011
2014
2015
2016
12199.7 17,242.5 18,880.3 20,090.5
4,359.1
4,773.1
5,079.1
1,274.9
1,688.9
1,994.9
11,473.9 15,200.3 17,953.9
3084.2
25.3%
17,242.5
12,199.7
26.7%
25.3%
73.1
657.6
12,131.5
18,880.3
12,199.7
26.1%
25.3%
52.2
469.9
15,670.1
20,090.5
12,199.7
26.1%
25.3%
62.6
563.1
18,517.0
4,608.9
26.7%
3,261.0
176.8
1,590.8
4,920.7
26.1%
4,493.9
1,409.6
12,686.6
5,238.4
26.1%
4,922.9
1,838.6
16,547.7
11,431.5
4,068.5
10,321.4
5,178.6
8,906.4
6,593.6
9.00 x
9.00 x
9.00 x
9.00 x
9.00 x
9.00 x
15,500.0
17,790.8
33,535.4
41,658.4
68.2%
8.9%
22.9%
0.0%
100.0%
46.7%
37.8%
15.4%
0.0%
100.0%
44.4%
39.7%
15.8%
0.0%
100.0%
4.84
5.61
6.45
3.30
0.43
1.11
0.00
2.62
2.12
0.87
0.00
2.86
2.56
1.02
0.00
2015E
0.0
250.0
0.0
2,242.5
4,000.0
3,828.8
2016E
0.0
0.0
0.0
886.1
4,000.0
4,020.3
2017E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,820.9
4,221.3
2018E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,432.4
2016E
-36.5
680.7
1,330.2
401.8
2017E
-46.3
593.4
1,465.1
427.6
2018E
-53.8
474.4
1,616.8
455.0
2019E
-53.4
307.9
1,752.4
475.2
2019E 2020E
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2020E
2020E
-66.1
0.0
2,025.1
496.2
0.0
-100.7
250.0
1,356.4
5,363.9
2018E
Debt Repayments
0.0
-114.1
2,820.9
0.0
7,281.5
2019E
2020E
Cash Sweep
Cash
2016E
26.07%
26.10%
0.0
-107.2
886.1
1,179.1
6,543.0
2017E
26.09%
26.11%
2018E
26.10%
26.12%
0.0
-83.6
4,654.0
0.0
6,432.2
0.0
-87.4
0.0
0.0
10,545.1
2019E
26.11%
2020E
26.12%
2018
2019
2016E
68.86%
67.03%
2020
2017E
67.98%
2018E
67.03%
2019E
65.44%
2020E
62.44%
2019E
(1.0x)
(1.4x)
26%
2020E
(1.6x)
(2.2x)
24%
65.44%
62.44%
2018
2019
2016E
(0.1x)
(0.1x)
9%
2017E
(0.7x)
(0.9x)
26%
Headroom
26%
(0.9x)
(0.7x)
2020
2018E
(1.2x)
(1.7x)
26%
26%
26%
(1.7x)
(1.2x)
24%
(1.4x)
(1.0x)
(2.2x)
(1.6x)
(1.6x)
2017E
2018E
2016E
0.7x
0.9x
25%
2019E
2017E
0.1x
0.1x
11%
2018E
(0.5x)
-0.7x
26%
2020E
2019E
(1.0x)
-1.4x
26%
2020E
(1.6x)
-2.2x
24%
26%
Headroom
26%
24%
11%
0.1x
-0.7x
0.1x
-1.4x
(1.0x)
(0.5x)
2017E
2018E
2016E
8.1x
6.1x
25%
25%
Headroom
2019E
2017E
10.2x
7.7x
25%
25%
2018E
14.1x
10.6x
25%
-2.2x
(1.6x)
2020E
2019E
24.4x
18.3x
25%
2020E
-
24.4x
25%
18.3x
-
10.2x
14.1x
10.6x
7.7x
0.0x0.0x
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2016E
3.9x
1.0x
74%
Headroom
0.8x
1.0x
1.0x
0.0x
-22%
2019
0%
2020
19 - 22
Comps
2017E
2.6x
1.0x
61%
2018E
1.2x
1.0x
17%
2019E
0.8x
1.0x
-22% -
2020E
1.0x
Comp1
Comp2
Comp3
Comp4
Comp5
Comp6
Comp7
Comp8
Comp9
12.0%
14.0%
Comp10
258.0
110.2
4,920.7
Exit EBITDA
2015
COPYRIGHTS NOTE 2013
FURTHER REPRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION OF THESE MODEL AND MATERIALS CONTAINED HEREIN IS
PROHIBITED WITHOUT FURTHER WRITTEN PERMISSION BY ANDREAS ANGELOPOULOS.
CASES, MODELS, GUIDELINES AND ANY OTHER MATERIALS PROVIDED BY ANDREAS ANGELOPOULOS ARE
PROPERTY OF ANDREAS ANGELOPOULOS WHO RETAINS SOLE OWNERSHIP OF THESE MATERIALS.
THESE CASES, FINANCIAL MODELS IN EXCEL AND OTHER MATERIALS ARE AVAILABLE ONLY FOR THE REGISTERED
STUDENTS IN THIS CLASS AND STRICTLY FOR CLASS DISCUSSION. THE MATERIALS SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR
COMMERCIAL OR PROFESSIONAL USE, SOLD, TRADED OR LENT, HIRED OUT, COPIED, PRESENTED OR
CIRCULATED, ALL OR PARTS, WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF ANDREAS ANGELOPOULOS.
CONTAINED HEREIN IS
ULOS.
S ANGELOPOULOS ARE
ESE MATERIALS.
LE ONLY FOR THE REGISTERED

SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR
D, PRESENTED OR
AS ANGELOPOULOS.

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Oxford Financial Modelling LAB

1b. Equity instruments

2. Operational & Financial Model

4. Investment analysis (Graphs)

Financial Modelling LAB

Guidelines for implementing your working model:

3. DCF Analysis follows using the NPV and APV methodologies

h operational segment based on the historical data provided

the Company to be used in the NPV method

e operational assumptions provided (this is similar to the process in step 2 above)

and will need to be updated at a later step

1A. DEBT FINANCE INSTRUMENTS

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Define the Senior Debt Repayment Schedule

Expand for the answer

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Define the Mezzanine repayment schedule

Expand for the answer

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Define the HY Bond repayment schedule

Expand for the answer

Financial Modelling LAB

$ 3M LIBOR forward curve

Step 2 Define the RCF and CapEx facilities repayment schedule

RCF and CapEx Repayment Schedule

Expand for the answer

1B. EQUITY INSTRUMENTS

Financial Modelling LAB

Step 2 Define the Shareholder Loan repayment schedule

Expand for the answer

2. OPERATIONAL & FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (FS)

TEMENTS (FS) MODEL

Financial Modelling LAB

Financial Modelling LAB

US ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

International ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

CPG ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

Starbucks Corporation ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Financial Modelling LAB

US ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

International ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

CPG ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Depreciation & Amortisation

Starbucks Corporation ($M), FY End Sep-2010

Financial Modelling LAB

Sales Growth (%)

Step 2 Forecast the income statement

Step 3 - Calculate the cash flow & cash balance

Current Working Capital

Net Property, Plant & Equipment

Financial Modelling LAB

Sales Growth (%)

Step 2 Forecast the income statement

Step 3 - Calculate the cash flow & cash balance

Opening Cash Balance

Current Working Capital

Gross Property, Plant & Equipment

Net Property, Plant & Equipment

Long term debt