The Tsupitero Newsletter is a daily Technical Analysis report by Miko S. Sayo.

The report is divided into three parts: 1. A daily Technical Analysis report of the PSEi; 2. A comprehensive Technical Analysis report of the most active and volatile stock during the day; and, 3. Recommended stocks for tsupita (short-term) trades, and, notes for Tsupiteros, which includes the following: the top 10 stocks that foreign funds are buying and selling; the top 10 most active stocks; the top 10 most volatile stocks; and, the top 10 gainers and losers for the day. These statistics would exclude stocks that are illiquid. The comprehensive Technical Analysis report of the most volatile and most active stock during the day is divided between a Technical Analysis for Tsupiteros (short-term traders) and a Technical Analysis for Position Traders. Each of these Technical Analyses will include such data as its daily chart, support, resistance, trend, average true range, relative strength vs. the Phisix, a discussion of the technical character of the stock and a recommendation. Included also in the analysis of each of these stocks are other practical information such as the top three buying and selling brokers for the past five days, the amount that these brokers bought and sold for the past five days, the net foreign buying and/or selling for the past five days and the news or rumor currently affecting the movement of the stock in the short-term. With regards to the "Recommended stocks for Tsupita" section of the newsletter, I usually choose around 3 stocks that are actually my best bets for a short-term trade or for a Tsupita. With each stock recommendation, there is a short technical description of the stock as well as my suggested trigger for buying the stock. The cost of a one-month subscription to the Tsupitero newsletter is P1,000.00. To subscribe to the Tsupitero newsletter, please email Miko at miko@tsupitero.com. One may pay by simply making an over-the-counter deposit to the following bank account: BPI Savings Account No. 3149-0491-25 Account Name Michael S. Sayo The Tsupitero newsletter will be emailed everyday on or before 9:00 in the evening.

The PSEi
Open 5,923.85 Advances 29 High 5,991.43 Declines 168 Low 5,678.73 Unchanged 18 Foreign Buying P6,911,756,393

(Jun 25, 2013)

Close 5,789.06 Value P12,815,383,572 Foreign Selling P8,780,389,394

Panic Continues but Now Testing Support

Charts is courtesy of Metastock

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros: Support 5550 to 5678 Resistance 6200 Trend Down ATR 240pts. Recommendation Buy as low as possible

Medium-term/Position Traders: Support 5000 Resistance 6750 Trend Sideways to Down ATR 470pts. Recommendation Avoid

On the back of another 139 point drop in the Dow last night and another almost P1.9 billion net selling by foreign funds, the PSEi was down by as much as 293 points at one point in time. We closed the day down by 181 points but we may have closed higher if not for some force closings. As of today, we are now down by five straight days in a row and, from the way I see it, we ought to find a short-term bottom soon, if not it did it already today. We will confirm if we have found a short-term bottom by tomorrow. With the market now in a panic and a lot of stocks now doing parabolic drops, I am guessing that an equally strong rally could occur soon. Take note, the average volatility of the market now is 240 points, thus, this market can potentially climb by 500 points in just two days. If we do bottom out somewhere here, I would expect prices to rally towards the 6200 level, at the very least. With just three days to go before window-dressing season on Friday, I do think that the more aggressive Tsupitero should now try and find a bottom. Still, more conservative Tsupiteros are still recommended to just stay in the sidelines. Position-traders, on the other hand, are still recommended to just enjoy your vacation in Boracay.

Tsupitero Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Megaworld Corp. (MEG)

Open 3.02 High 3.09 Low 2.75 Close 2.90 Value P516,863,000

Prices Continue to do Parabolic Drop but Now Trading at Extremely Oversold Condition

MEG continued to drop lower today and is now even doing a parabola (vertical drop). Notice how prices slowly accelerated to the downside as its downward channel became steeper and steeper. Today, it accelerated too much that it even broke below the downward channel itself. From the way I understand market behavior, parabolic drops are capitulation stages and may indicate that a short-term bottom is near. Actually, the short-term bottom may have actually formed already today (cross your fingers). If ever MEG did bottom-out today, then, a rally going towards 3.35 would not be impossible. If not, then, the next line of defense would now be at the psychological 2.50 level, if not 2.63. More aggressive Tsupiteros are still recommended to buy this stock as low as you can. For the more conservative Tsupitero, just continue to stay in the sidelines. MEG Technical Analysis Support Tsupitero Position Trader 2.63 to 2.75 2.50 Resistance 3.35 to 3.45 3.75 Trend Down Sideways to Down ATR 0.27 0.35 Recommendation Buy as low as possible Take profits on strength

MEG Top Buying and Selling Brokers Wednesday Thursday Jun 19, 2013 Jun 20, 2013 SB 55.609M SB 43.282M Macquarie 8.852M Wealth 14.037M BDO 7.067M Tower 6.093M FirstMetro 5.635M Valueqst 3.455M Thing-On 3.600M Eastern 3.327M Regis 28.795M Thing-On 21.064M CreditSui 12.916M UBS 13.299M Goldstar 10.756M COL 8.311M Abacus 10.464M BA 7.711M DBP-Daiwa 7.17M BPI 7.150M 17,725,010 23,414,360 Friday Jun 21, 2013 FirstOrient 59.59M Wealth 51.682M COL 23.595M Citisec 11.813M Abacus 11.444M Regis 131.054M DBP-Daiwa 66.1M Macquarie 27.82M Public 21.996M Mandarin 4.623M (267,460,400) Monday Tuesday Jun 24, 2013 Jun 25, 2013 Macquarie 28.32M COL 45.661M Star 22.954M SB 25.815M UCPB 10.618M Star 22.544M PCCI 9.711M Wealth 14.298M JPMorgan 7.987M Tower 13.371M Regis 41.862M ATR 50.699M COL 33.998M CLSA 42.673M PhilEquity 25.403M Macquarie 33.86M FirstOrient 10.86M Bernad 32.896M Citisec 10.118M FirstOrient 14.30M (72,838,140) (148,366,550)

Buyers

Sellers

MEG Net Foreign Activity Amount MEG News/Rumors Annual Stockholders Meeting on July 18, 2013. Record date on Jun 7, 2013. Subscription to GERI and ELI shares. http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2013/pdf/dc2013-5097_MEG.pdf

When prices form parabolic drops after a long downtrend, it normally marks the end of the downtrend. A lot of stocks are now doing parabolic drops. Notice that most of my recommendations are no longer dropping as much as other stocks now. Thats because they already did parabolic drops. In the table below are top losers in the last five days as well as the most oversold stocks relative to their volatility. Those stocks, especially those that are most oversold relative to volatility, are the ones that could potentially bounce back the strongest once this market rallies. Once again, the only problem is how to find the bottom. This set-up is only suited for more aggressive Tsupiteros. For the more conservative Tsupitero, I would suggest that you do not trade this market at all at the moment.

Recommended Stocks for Tsupiteros

AP Comments: FPH Comments: PF Comments: PX Comments: SCC Comments: Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 29.20 34.00 Down 1.80 Buy as low as possible Trying to hold above 30.00. May begin to rally if it does. Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 68 - 70 87.00 Down 5.80 Buy as low as possible Trying to hold above 68.00. May begin to rally if it does. Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 198 - 200 240 / 255 Down 17.00 Buy as low as possible Continuing to drop but now trading at extremely oversold conditions. Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 8.30 / 8.80 12.00 Down 1.00 Buy as low as possible Trying to hold above 8.80. May begin to rally if it does. Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 220.00 260.00 Down 9.75 Buy as low as possible Trying to hold above 225.00. May begin to rally if it does.

Top Losers last 5 Days ORE -33.00% MCP -31.28% PXP -30.98% LCB -30.65% LC -30.51% CPG -29.48% MMI -28.06% MA -25.64% PX -24.55% BLOOM -22.08%

Most Oversold Relative to Volatility ORE -33.00% BEL -21.10% MCP -31.28% CPG -29.48% PIP -19.52% MA -25.64% AT -20.59% HI -20.73% MEG -18.77% DNL -20.57%

Technical Analysis of Selected Stocks

AGI Comments: CPG Comments: MBT Comments: MCP Comments: MPI Comments: Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 19.7 - 20.00 23.00 - 23.50 Down 1.70 Buy as low as possible Trying to hold above 20.25. May begin to rally if it does. Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 1.07 / 1.20 1.45 / 1.65 Down 0.15 Buy as low as possible Continuing to trend down but now trading at extremely oversold conditions. Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 96.50 113 - 115 Down 7.15 Buy as low as possible Trying to hold above 96.50. May begin to rally if it does. Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 6.5 - 7.00 10.00 - 10.50 Down 1.15 Buy as low as possible Continuing to drop but now approaching its support at 6.50 to 7.00. Support Resistance Trend ATR Recommendation 4.60 5.25 / 5.50 Down 0.42 Buy as low as possible Trying to hold above 4.60. May begin to rally if it does.

Todays Notes for Tsupiteros

`
GTCAP

LTG URC NIKL AP PCOR OPMB APM UBP VLL Stock TEL MBT AC SM MEG ALI AEV MPI ICT SECB

Top Ten Net Foreign Buying P52,022,980 P50,702,498 P41,406,369 P37,119,142 P36,371,305 P17,868,876 P17,100,000 P16,073,144 P15,392,690 P13,805,702 Top Ten Net Foreign Selling (P433,612,630) (P233,846,909) (P232,953,540) (P228,589,700) (P148,366,550) (P142,103,695) (P104,364,990) (P81,335,511) (P70,455,725) (P66,205,014)

Stock Top Ten Most Active P1,006,038,010 TEL P959,261,800 ALI P791,318,293 MBT P678,323,570 SM P655,311,360 AGI P632,183,138 SMPH P572,030,968 URC P532,117,633 BPI P531,040,100 AC P516,863,000 MEG Stock Top Ten Most Volatile 34.70% HI 26.37% ORE 20.00% MMI 18.27% PXP 16.84% EEI 16.74% DMPL 16.31% CPG 15.83% MCP 15.19% BEL 13.92% AUB

Stock Top Ten Gainers 3.93% GERI 3.21% SMPH 1.65% SMDC 1.55% RFM 1.36% MWC 1.20% FPH 1.20% PX 1.16% COSCO 0.98% MER 0.87% SCC Stock Top Ten Losers -26.37% ORE -20.00% MMI -13.48% CPG -13.46% PXP -11.54% BEL -10.53% OV -9.77% EEI -9.19% AC -8.10% BLOOM -7.63% ABSP

Important Notice - The Technical Analysis and Recommendation for Tsupiteros are meant to be used by Traders who have a holding period of between one day and two weeks. The Technical Analysis and Recommendation for Position Traders are meant to be used by Traders who have a holding period of between two weeks and three months. Traders who have a holding period of more than three months are not advised to use this newsletter. Legend: + recommend to buy if resistance is taken out to the upside * recommended stop ^ recommendation has changed from the previous day Glossary of Terms: 1. Support - A historical price level at which falling prices have stopped falling and either moved sideways or reversed direction; usually seen as a price chart pattern. 2. Resistance - A historical price level at which rising prices have stopped rising and either moved sideways or reversed direction; usually seen as a price chart pattern. 3. Average True Range (ATR) defined by Wilder to be the greatest of the following for each period: The distance from todays high to todays low The distance from yesterdays close to todays high The distance from yesterdays close to todays low The Average True Range is simply the average of the true ranges over the past x periods (where x is specified by the user). In this newsletter, the ATR is computed in percentage terms. The ATR for Tsupiteros is calculated on a lookback period of 3 days, while the ATR for Position Traders is calculated on a lookback period of 3 weeks. 4. Trend - The general drift, tendency or bent of a set of statistical data as related to time. Disclaimer This document is published by Michael S. Sayo. The information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of the addressee only and it is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. Michael S. Sayo accepts no liability for any direct or incidental loss arising from the use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. I may or may not hold the securities that I recommend in this newsletter.

Author: Miko S. Sayo Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Email: miko@tsupitero.com Website: http://www.tsupitero.com