Jurnalul s pt mnii 9-13 decembrie 2013

Putin warns about balance of power being changed due to increase military capability in the West At his State of the Nation speech on 12 December this year, president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, has warned that attempt of disarming a countrys nuclear capability could alienate current balance of power. The declaration, according to The Moscow Times, is a reaction to the buildup of missile defense capability in Europe by the USA-led NATO. According to Russian deputy Prime-Minister, Dimitry Rogozin, the logic behind this stays in the fact that Russias right to use nuclear capability reduces the likelihood of aggression, thus the increase in conventional capabilities by westerners and the buildup of capabilities able to disarm a countrys nuclear capability contribute to the destruction of balance of power. Consequently, Russia could increase its military power to counter NATOs, thus creating the perfect environment for a security dilemma. USAs attempt to increase conventional capability (but which could be able to disarm Russias nuclear one) in Europe was stated to be a reaction to the Iranian threat, which made president Putin question this argument following the nuclear deal with this country (namely limiting its nuclear program), and caused him to see Russia as the object of this increase. Russian concerns stand in the fact that USA is working on developing the existing nuclear armed missiles into carrying conventional warheads and designing new vehicles capable of traveling five times the speed of sound, says The Moscow Times. Following president Putins declaration, a Russian politician called Aleksei Puskov has made the daring declaration that Russia could bail out from the START-3 Treaty of arms reduction, which entails joint efforts to reduce nuclear arsenal between USA and Russia. The formers declaration regarding bailing the Treaty reveals possible intentions to increase nuclear capability unless US stops shielding Europe. After the Iranian deal, it was natural in Russian officials minds that NATO will follow the new geopolitical trends (supposing that its attempts to increase its capability stands behind Iranian threat as it was stated). Given that Iran has eased attempts to develop its nuclear arsenal, and

Jurnalul s pt mnii 9-13 decembrie 2013

given that NATO did not cease developing capabilities, the Russian belief that the defense system in Eastern Europe is aimed at it is a case in point. The position of the anti-ballistic missile defense that is to be built in south of Romania and north of Poland and the fact that each has access to seas connected to Russia is posing significant weight to the Russian arguments according to which the real threat NATO had in mind was Russia, not Iran. As a reaction, Russia is solidifying military capability in Belarus (by establishing a wing of fighter jets and delivering four battalions of S-300 surface-to-air missiles in 2014). Prior to that Russia has engaged in a major exercise in the Black Sea that angered its neighbors (Ukraine and Georgia mostly). Moreover, Russia has planned on constructing an integrated air and missile defense system within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (whose members are Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Belarus). Diplomatic hostilities between Euro-Atlantic structures and Russia could fall on smaller states that chose to bandwagon US, like the Republic of Moldova where segregationist Transnistria has had Russian military presence solidified after RM initialing Agreements with EU, or on Romania, a close ally of USA and host of NATOs missile defense system in Europe. Needless to say, this puts Romania in one of the most vulnerable positions in Europe (Russian Ambassador in Bucharest has made a declaration according to which accepting to be a host for the anti-ballistic missile defense system would make it a target) alongside the other hosts of the missile defense system. Romanian officials state this missile shield is only a defensive system and is a reaction to the Iranian threat. Responding to allegations stipulating that the anti-ballistic missile defense is in reality decreasing Romanias security, Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the person of Secretary of State Bogdan Aurescu has assured this is not the case. On the contrary, this arrangement increases cooperation with US and NATO. Disregarding the debate on whether the system decreases or increases the security of Romania, hosting the shield has raised allies awareness that Romania is an important player in providing

Jurnalul s pt mnii 9-13 decembrie 2013

security and not only a consumer. Also, having it on our territory could concentrate significant amount of resources and attention from behalf of the allies for assuring its security. Surse:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-says-new-instantaneous-weapons-pose-danger-to-globalstability/491458.html http://romanian.ruvr.ru/2013_11_04/La-ce-serveSte-americanilor-scutul-antibalistic-de-la-Deveselu-Partea-I-9853/ http://rt.com/politics/air-base-belarus-threat-nato-125/ http://stiri.tvr.ro/bogdan-aurescu--scutul-de-la-deveselu-creste-securitatea-romaniei--nu-ne-transforma-intinta_36745.html

Jurnalul s pt mnii 9-13 decembrie 2013

Snowden answers to European Parliaments questions

On December 12 this year, the European Parliament has voted to invite former NSA analyst to give testimony despite concerns related to transatlantic relations being endangered. The arrangement best suiting fugitive Snowden is a video link in order to avoid being caught. According to the Voice of Russia, the analyst has already agreed to testify publicly. After the Snowden scandal first appeared, the first reaction was to think of transatlantic relations being harmed. The European countries would call for a more Europe-centric NATO, by pushing for increase in military capability with the purpose to decrease dependence on USA (because as long as it pays approximately 75 percent of the total expenditure reducing its influence in Europe would be close to non-existent). But after repeated so called fails of the American intelligence agency (NSA spying on Angela Merkels phone conversations that was unraveled by the media is a serious fail of intelligence agency, making it look too sloppy) and given that Germany and France have expressed willingness to develop plans of cooperation with USA intelligence after the spying scandal (that was supposed to be followed by the other EU countries), I couldnt help but dare to think of a staged scandal (by the USA) that could open the path for joint intelligence agencies between USA and EU countries. With the purpose of rebuilding trust and cooperation, USA could leverage Europe-centrics within NATO and nationalists within EU into agreeing. The logic behind could be USA losing power and support among EU countries, and a joint intelligence system could increase interdependence and could help EU countries into homogenizing interests alongside USA. EU countries would be more cooperative due to willingness to rebuild trust and belief that this would keep the stronger partner under (ironically) surveillance, in an (not to ignore) era of enhanced technology. Plausible or not, we may see in the future, but meanwhile, questions on why would Snowden reveal US spying habits remain in the center of the debate and the European Parliament decision reveals a possible feeling that the situation could also have an unexplored dimension.

Jurnalul s pt mnii 9-13 decembrie 2013

Whichever the case (leaks of USA spying European leaders are purely accidental or not), it reveals a vacuum in the international law system that appears to be outdated. Regarding Romania, given its tradition of being a firm supporter of USA, I expect it to be reluctant to reduce cooperation with USA especially since it is not directly involved. However, even though it is a state without a far-reaching voice in the international arena, it can make an example out of out braiding attempts from USA to distrust its partners. The testimony that the European Parliament has requested is a signal that the issue of spying is not to be ignored or forgotten and points to the need of creating legal frameworks necessary to prevent it from repeating. Surse:
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_12_12/European-parliament-invite-Snowden-to-give-testimony-on-NSAspying-9964/

Petronela Chirvase