Situation normal,

everything must
change
Simon
Wardley
Canonical and the Cloud
 DANGER!
Will Robinson
DANGER!
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
Pain
Pain

No. Slides
Pain 35 slides

Severe
risk of
harm

OK
No. Slides
Pain 227 slides

Severe
risk of
harm

OK
No. Slides
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
Cloud Computing
Cloud Computing

What is
“Cloud computing” ?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
 It’s like
computers on
the internet, innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
 It’s a disruptive
shift of the
computing stack
to online services.
 It’s like
computers on
the internet, innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
Image from Oliver Twist,
It’s like SaaS or software as a service, and
infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s
platform as a Service and utility
computing being provided in public clouds,
which is different from private clouds
which aren’t cloud computing, unless of
course you’re talking about hybrid clouds
which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in
and did I mention infrastructure?
Cloud Computing

Not a thing ...

Cloud Computing

“Cloud computing” is a consequence of

economic and technological conditions that
have combined to cause a disruptive change
in I.T. towards a service based economy.
Why I.T. is changing.
Why I.T. is changing.

Benefits & Risks.

 Why I.T. is changing.

Benefits & Risks.

Canonical and the Cloud.

Why I.T. is changing.
Why I.T. is changing

http://www.strassmann.com/

Paul Strassmann
Why I.T. is changing

Not all IT is the same.

Why I.T. is changing

Not all IT has value.

Why I.T. is changing

Yesterday’s
hot stuff
Why I.T. is changing

Yesterday’s Today’s
hot stuff boredom
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
Why I.T. is changing

Innovation
Why I.T. is changing

Innovation Bespoke
Why I.T. is changing

Innovation Bespoke Products

Why I.T. is changing

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Competitive Advantage
Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Cost of doing business

Why I.T. is changing

1832

Innovation
Why I.T. is changing

1832

Innovation Bespoke
Why I.T. is changing

1837

1832

Innovation Bespoke Products

Image from Oliver Twist
Image from Chicago Historical Society
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
Why I.T. is changing

1890
1837

1832
Utility
Innovation Bespoke Products Grids
(Services)
Why I.T. is changing

Harvey Hubbell
(1857-1927)
Why I.T. is changing

1930
1837

1832
National
Innovation Bespoke Products Grid
(Services)
Why I.T. is changing

As IT becomes ubiquitous
it has no strategic value

Nicholas Carr
Why I.T. is changing

Not all IT is the same.

Why I.T. is changing

As IT [activities]
becomes ubiquitous it has
no strategic value

Nicholas Carr
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

Novel
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

Novel
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

Novel
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

TV’s, Phone,VCRs
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

COMMODITY
Ubiquity

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

Innovation
of CRM.
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

Mid '80s DB
marketing.
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

CRM products
90’s
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

“Cloud Providers”
like
Salesforce
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

Expense Payroll
Procedure Accounts
Payable
Company
Web site
Ubiquity

Wiki
Social Network
Analysis
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

Expense Payroll
Procedure Accounts
Payable
Company
Web site
Ubiquity

Wiki
Social Network
Analysis
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

Features
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

Widespread
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

Widespread
Ubiquity

Feature
Complete
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

Widespread
Ubiquity

Feature
Complete
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Common

“as a Service”
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Utility
Computing

John McCarthy
Why I.T. is changing

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

highly disruptive
Why I.T. is changing

The fundamental impulse that sets

and keeps the capitalist engine in
motion comes from the new
consumers, goods, the new methods
of production or transportation, the
new markets, the new forms of
industrial organization that capitalist
enterprise creates.

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

Why I.T. is changing

The fundamental impulse that sets

and keeps the capitalist engine in
motion comes from the new
consumers, goods, the new methods
of production or transportation, the
new markets, the new forms of
industrial organization that capitalist
enterprise creates.

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

Why I.T. is changing

Creative
Destruction

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Why I.T. is changing

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Why I.T. is changing

Power

Innovation Bespoke Products Hardware

Internet
Why I.T. is changing

Power

Google Bespoke Products Hardware

Internet
Why I.T. is changing

Operating System

Hypervisor

CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Database Framework Messaging

Operating System

Hypervisor

CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application Service

Database Framework Messaging

Operating System

Hypervisor

CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application Service

Database Framework Messaging

Operating System

Hypervisor

CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application Service

Database Framework Messaging

Operating System

Hypervisor

CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application Service

Database Framework Messaging

Operating System

Hypervisor

CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Application Service

Database Framework Messaging

10,000 x Operating System

Hypervisor

CPU Memory I/O

Why I.T. is changing

Componentisation

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Why I.T. is changing

The rate of evolution of a

system is directly related
to the organisation of its
subsystems

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Why I.T. is changing

Application Service

Database Platform Messaging

Operating System

Hypervisor

CPU Memory I/O

 Why I.T. is changing

Application Service

ase Platform Messaging

Operating System

Hypervisor Infrastructure

Memory I/O
 Why I.T. is changing

Application Service

ase Platform Messaging Platform

Operating System

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Memory I/O
 Why I.T. is changing

Application Service Application

ase Platform Messaging Platform

Operating System

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Memory I/O
Why I.T. is changing

Application
Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Disruptive Shift
Why I.T. is changing

Application
Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

(Componentisation)
Why I.T. is changing

Common

Widespread
Ubiquity

Feature
Complete
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

“as a Service”
Common

industry
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Why I.T. is changing

Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2

Why I.T. is changing

Google App
Platform as a Service Engine

Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2

Why I.T. is changing

Software as a Service SalesForce

Google App
Platform as a Service Engine

Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2

Why I.T. is changing

As IT [activities]
becomes ubiquitous it has
no strategic value

Nicholas Carr
Why I.T. is changing

Commoditisation

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Cost of doing business

Why I.T. is changing

Application
Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Disruptive Shift
Why I.T. is changing

Application
Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

(Componentisation)
Why I.T. is changing

“Cloud computing” is a consequence of

economic and technological conditions that
have combined to cause a disruptive change
in I.T. towards a service based economy.
Why I.T. is changing

Creative
Destruction

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

Why I.T. is changing

Utility
Computing

John McCarthy
Recap
Recap

Commoditisation

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Recap

Common

Expense Payroll
Procedure Accounts
Payable
Company
Web site
Ubiquity

Wiki
Social Netwok
Analysis
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Recap

Common

COMMODITY
Ubiquity

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Recap

http://www.strassmann.com/

Paul Strassmann
Recap

Componentisation

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

 Recap

Application Service Application

ase Platform Messaging Platform

Operating System

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Memory I/O
Recap

Application
Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Disruptive
Recap

“as a Service”
Common

industry
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Recap

Software as a Service SalesForce

Google App
Platform as a Service Engine

Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2

Recap

Utility
Computing

John McCarthy
Recap

“Cloud computing” is a consequence of

economic and technological conditions that
have combined to cause a disruptive change
in I.T. towards a service based economy.
 It’s like
computers on
the internet, innit.
Why I.T. is changing.

Benefits & Risks.

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

• Economies of scale. (volume)

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

• Economies of scale. (volume)

• Pay per use. (utility)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

• Economies of scale. (volume)

• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

• Economies of scale. (volume)

• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
• Focus on core. (outsourcing)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Common
Ubiquity

You
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Common

Market
Ubiquity

You
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Common

Market

Competitive
Ubiquity

Gap

You
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

The need to constantly

evolve in order to stand
still relative to an eco-
system.

Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Red Queen
Hypothesis

Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Common
• Economies of scale. (volume) Market
• Pay per use. (utility)

• Speed to market.
(componentisation) Competitive
Gap
• Focus on core.
(outsourcing)

• Greener (efficient supply You

& demand)
Novel

Low High
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Application
Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Disruptive Shift
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management.
• Trust.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management.
• Trust.
• Transparency.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition
• Management.
• Trust.
• Transparency.
• Security of supply
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

“as a Service”
Common

industry
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition General
• Management. • Suitability.
• Trust.
• Transparency.
• Security of supply.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition General
• Management. • Suitability.
• Trust. • Price competition.
• Transparency.
• Security of supply.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition General
• Management. • Suitability.
• Trust. • Price competition.
• Transparency. • Lock-in.
• Security of supply.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Transition General
• Management. • Suitability.
• Trust. • Price competition.
• Transparency. • Lock-in.
• Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

Adoption Barriers
 Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Common

Market

Gap Vs
You
Novel

Low High
 Why I.T. is changing.

Benefits & Risks.

Canonical and the Cloud.

Canonical and the Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud

• Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.

Canonical and the Cloud

• Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.

• Over 10,000,000 users.
Canonical and the Cloud

Transition General
• Management. • Suitability.
• Trust. • Price competition.
• Transparency. • Lock-in.
• Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
Canonical and the Cloud

Electricity
Canonical and the Cloud

Electricity

BOOM!
Canonical and the Cloud

Standard Output

BOOM!
Canonical and the Cloud

Application

Platform

Infrastructure
Canonical and the Cloud

Application

Platform

Infrastructure
Canonical and the Cloud

Data
You
Application
Canonical and the Cloud

Data

Application

Platform

Operating
Provider System
(i.e. CogHead)
Hypervisor

Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud

Data

Application

Platform

Operating
System
BOOM!
Hypervisor

Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud

Data

Application

Platform Platform

Operating Operating
System System
BOOM!
Hypervisor Hypervisor

Bare Metal Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Data

Application

Platform
Multiple Platform
Providers
Operating Operating
System System

Hypervisor Hypervisor

Bare Metal Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Data

Application

Platform
Easy Platform
Switching
Operating Operating
System System

Hypervisor Hypervisor

Bare Metal Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Data

Application

Platform
Standard Platform
Output
Operating Operating
System System

Hypervisor Hypervisor

Bare Metal Bare Metal

Canonical and the Cloud

Paul Baran
Canonical and the Cloud

IPX / SPX
Banyan Vines
AppleTalk
SNA
DECNET
Canonical and the Cloud

IPX / SPX
Banyan Vines
AppleTalk TCP/IP
SNA
Decnet
Canonical and the Cloud

IPX / SPX
Banyan Vines
AppleTalk TCP/IP
SNA
Decnet
Open
Canonical and the Cloud

IPX / SPX
Banyan Vines Bind
AppleTalk TCP/IP SendMail
SNA Apache
Decnet
Open Open Source
Canonical and the Cloud

IPX / SPX
Banyan Vines
Innovation AppleTalk TCP/IP
SNA
Decnet

(Componentisation)
Canonical and the Cloud

Harvey Hubbell
(1857-1927)
Canonical and the Cloud

Application

Platform

Infrastructure
Canonical and the Cloud

Application

Platform

Amazon EC2
Canonical and the Cloud

Beta program for

Ubuntu Server Edition
on Amazon EC2.

http://www.ubuntu.com/ec2
Canonical and the Cloud

9.04 Technology Preview

Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud

Eucalyptus
Canonical and the Cloud

Private in-house cloud

matching
Amazon EC2 API
Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor

Bare Metal

Private Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor Hypervisor

Bare Metal Bare Metal

Amazon EC2 Private Cloud

Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor
Easy Hypervisor
Switching
Bare Metal Bare Metal

Amazon EC2 Private Cloud

Canonical and the Cloud

Common
• Economies of scale. (volume) Market
• Pay per use. (utility)

• Speed to market.
(componentisation) Competitive
Gap
• Focus on core.
(outsourcing)

• Greener (efficient supply You

& demand)
Novel

Low High
Canonical and the Cloud

Standard
Ouptut
Canonical and the Cloud

Ecosystem
Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor

Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor

Bare Metal

Hypervisor

Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor

Bare Metal

Hypervisor

Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor

Bare Metal Price

Hypervisor

Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud

Hypervisor
Quality of
Bare Metal
Service
Hypervisor

Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud

Common

Feature
Differentiation
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Canonical and the Cloud

Common

Price vs QoS
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Canonical and the Cloud

Competitive
Market
Recap
Recap

Commoditisation

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Recap

http://www.strassmann.com/

Paul Strassmann
Recap

Application
Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Disruptive
Recap

“as a Service”
Common

industry
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Recap

Utility
Computing

John McCarthy
Recap

“Cloud computing” is a consequence of

economic and technological conditions that
have combined to cause a disruptive change
in I.T. towards a service based economy.
Recap

• Economies of scale. (volume)

• Pay per use. (utility)
• Speed to market. (componentisation)
• Focus on core. (outsourcing)
Recap

Common
• Economies of scale. (volume) Market
• Pay per use. (utility)

• Speed to market.
(componentisation) Competitive
Gap
• Focus on core.
(outsourcing)

• Greener (efficient supply You

& demand)
Novel

Low High
Recap

Transition General
• Management. • Suitability.
• Trust. • Price competition.
• Transparency. • Lock-in.
• Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
Recap

Standard Output
Recap

IPX / SPX
Banyan Vines Bind
AppleTalk TCP/IP SendMail
SNA Apache
Decnet
Open Open Source
Recap

Hypervisor
Standard Hypervisor
Output
Bare Metal Bare Metal

Amazon EC2 Private Cloud

Recap

9.04 Technology Preview

Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud
(Eucalyptus)
Recap

Private in-house cloud

matching
Amazon EC2 API
Recap

Competitive
Market
Recap

Hypervisor

Bare Metal

Hypervisor

Bare Metal
Recap

Red Queen
Hypothesis

Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

Situation normal,
everything must
change
Thank you
whoops ...
the outtakes ...
i.e. more slides ...
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com
Good, Bad & Ugly
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
The Good

Application
Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

(Componentisation)
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
The Bad

Application
Platform

Infrastructure

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Disruptive Shift
The Bad

Common

Widespread
Ubiquity

Feature
Complete
Novel

Low High
Certainty
The Bad

As IT becomes ubiquitous
it has no strategic value

Nicholas Carr
The Bad

Creative
Destruction

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

The Ugly

Utility
Computing

John McCarthy
The Ugly

Software Software as a Service (SaaS)

Framework Framework as a Service (FaaS)

Hardware as a Service (HaaS)

Hardware

2007
The Ugly

“this is going to
lead to a whole
lot of aaS.”
Oscon 2007

Robert Lefkowitz
The Ugly

2007 - 2008
The Ugly

Software OaaS XaaS

Application
DaaS DBaaS
Framework SaaSu
Platform DaaS DaaS SaaSy
SaaSp PaaS
SaaS
HaaS FaaS
Hardware WaaS
Infrastructure IaaS FaaS

2008
The Ugly

Application Application as a Service (SaaS)

Platform Platform as a Service (PaaS)

Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)

Infrastructure

2009
Terminology.
 It’s like
computers on
the internet, innit.
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com
Why transparency
matters ...
Transparency

Infrastructure
as a Service
Joe
Transparency

Joe
Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Transparency

Hypervisor Technology Joe

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Transparency

Hypervisor Technology Joe

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Transparency

Tom Storage

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Storage

Joe Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Storage PaaS Dick

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Storage Development Platform Dick

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Joe

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Transparency

Harry Mapping API

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API

Tom Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API SaaS Alice

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Transport Routing Alice

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Harry Mapping API Transport Routing

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Transport Routing

Tom Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Transport Routing

Storage Development Platform Dick

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Bob
Mapping API Transport Routing

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Transport Routing Alice

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Transport Routing

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal

Transparency

Mapping API Transport Routing

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Joe

Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
Transparency

Mapping API Transport Routing

Storage Development Platform

Hypervisor Technology Joe

Transparency

r m
a tfo
P l
n t
Map e
ping p m
API e lo
Hype eving
rviso R D
o ut
Sto p o r t
r Tec s
rag
e hnoTlran
ogy
Transparency

Bob Alice
Transparency

Bob Alice

Tom, Dick, Harry or Joe

Transparency

House House House Joe

Transparency

Tom Security

House House House

Transparency

Dick
Security

House House House

Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com
 Part I
Why I.T. is
complex
Complexity

Common
Ubiquity

Innovation
of CRM.
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Uncertain
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Uncertain
Ubiquity

Deviation
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Uncertain
Ubiquity

Deviation
Differential
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Uncertain
Ubiquity

Deviation
Differential
Novel

Worth
Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common
Ubiquity

Dynamic
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common
Ubiquity

Agile
XP / Scrum
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Utility-like
provision
of CRM
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

“Cloud Providers”
like
Salesforce
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Defined
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Defined

No Deviation
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Defined

No Deviation
CODB
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Defined

No Deviation
CODB
Ubiquity

Cost
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Defined
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Prince 2,
Six Sigma
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Prince 2,
Six Sigma
Ubiquity

Agile
XP, Scrum
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

CRM
Ubiquity

CRM
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Six Sigma
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

COMMODITY
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common
Ubiquity

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity

Common

Different
Ubiquity

Methodologies
Novel

Low High
Certainty
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com
 Part II
The Paradox
Complexity ... Part II

Common

Prince 2,
Six Sigma
Ubiquity

Agile
XP, Scrum
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity ... Part II

Common

Six Sigma
Ubiquity

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity ... Part II

Common

Expense Payroll
Procedure Accounts
Payable
Company
Web site
Ubiquity

Wiki
Social Network
Analysis
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity ... Part II

Common

Market

Competitive
Ubiquity

Gap

You
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity ... Part II

The need to constantly

evolve in order to stand
still relative to an eco-
system.

Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

Complexity ... Part II

The fundamental impulse that sets

and keeps the capitalist engine in
motion comes from the new
consumers, goods, the new methods
of production or transportation, the
new markets, the new forms of
industrial organization that capitalist
enterprise creates.

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/
Complexity ... Part II

Innovation Paradox
Survival today requires ‘coherence,
coordination and stability’ [order].
&
Survival tomorrow requires the replacement
of these virtues [disorder].

Salaman & Storey

Complexity ... Part II

Common

Order
Ubiquity

Disorder
Novel

Low High
Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
Complexity ... Part II

Common

Six Sigma
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity ... Part II

Common
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity ... Part II

Common
Ubiquity

20% Rule
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Complexity ... Part II

Common

Rigorous defined
procedures
Ubiquity

20% Rule
Novel

Low High
Certainty
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com
Things to watch ...
Things to watch

Application

Platform

Infrastructure
Things to watch

Competitive
Market
Things to watch

Data

Application

Platform
Standard Platform
Output
Operating Operating
System System

Hypervisor Hypervisor

Bare Metal Bare Metal

Things to watch

Platform
Things to watch

Technology
Platform
Vendor
Things to watch

Provider

Technology
Vendor
Things to watch

Provider

Consumer Technology
Vendor
Things to watch

Provider

Consumer Technology
Vendor

ISV
Things to watch

Provider

Consumer Technology
Vendor

ISV
Things to watch

Provider

Consumer Technology
Locked-in
Vendor

ISV
Things to watch

Provider

Consumer Open
Standard

ISV
Things to watch

Provider

Consumer EXTEND

ISV
Things to watch

Common

Feature
Differentiation
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Things to watch

Common

Price vs QoS
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Things to watch

Open
Platform Source
Reference
Model
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com
 Part III
More Or Less ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
 I’m in ur Internets

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
 I’m in ur Internets

... web fohwr zero!!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
More innovation

Common
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Common

Payroll
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Common

Payroll

Company
Web site
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Common

Payroll

Company
Web site
Ubiquity

Neuristic Kitten
Thing
Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Common

Dynamic
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Common
Ubiquity

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Common

Market

Competitive
Ubiquity

Gap

You
Novel

Low High
Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
More innovation

The need to constantly

evolve in order to stand
still relative to an eco-
system.

Professor Leigh M.Van Valen

More innovation

“more efficient”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
More innovation

“more process”
More innovation

Common

Defined
Processes
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Common

COMMODITY
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
More innovation

Common

COMMODITY
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Common

Defined
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Common
Ubiquity

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
More innovation

Creative
Destruction

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)‫‏‬

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
More innovation

“innovate more”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
More innovation

“less process”
More innovation

“more process”
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
Image from Oliver Twist,
More innovation

“ideas process”
More innovation

Common

Rigorous defined
procedures
Ubiquity

Skunk works
Novel

Low High
Certainty
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com
Adopt a fast life ...
Fast life

Commoditisation

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Fast life

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

Product
Competition
Fast life
Adoption

Laggards

Early
Time
Products
Fast life
Adoption

“Original” “New and Improved”

Time
Products
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
Fast life

Diffusion of
Product
Innovation

Everett Rogers
( 1931 - 2004 )
Fast life

Common

Product
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Fast life

Common

Product
Ubiquity

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Fast life
Adoption

“Original” “New and Improved”

Time
Products
Fast life

Common

Widespread

Product
Ubiquity

Feature
Complete

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Fast life

Common

Services

Product
Ubiquity

INNOVATION
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Fast life

Innovation Bespoke Products Services

highly disruptive
Fast life

Common

Standard
Components
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Fast life

Common

Standard
Components
Componentisation
Ubiquity

Novel

Low High
Certainty
Fast life

Common

Standard
Components
Componentisation
Ubiquity

Innovation
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Fast life

Common

Standard
Components
Componentisation
Ubiquity

Commoditisation

Innovation
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Fast life

Common

Standard
Components
Componentisation
Ubiquity

Commoditisation

Innovation
Novel

Low High
Certainty
Fast life

Common

Standard
Components
Componentisation
Ubiquity

Commoditisation

Innovation
Novel

Low High
Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com
Happy clouds ...
Happy Clouds

Three Rules happy

Happy Clouds

Three Rules happy

Run the service on my own
Rule 1
machines.
Happy Clouds

Three Rules happy

Run the service on my own
Rule 1
machines.

Easily switch between my machines

Rule 2
and a cloud provider.
Happy Clouds

Three Rules happy

Run the service on my own
Rule 1
machines.

Easily switch between my machines

Rule 2
and a cloud provider.

Easily switch between cloud

Rule 3
providers.
Happy Clouds

Hypervisor

Bare Metal

Private Cloud
Happy Clouds

Hypervisor
Easy Hypervisor
Switching
Bare Metal Bare Metal

Amazon EC2 Private Cloud

Happy Clouds

Competitive
Market
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
simon.wardley@canonical.com
End ...
Beyond End ...