in retail banking: lessons from the past, plans for the future Quantitative and qualitative analysis in the European retail banking sector 2 Contents 1 Preface 3 2 Executive Summary 4 3 Europes banks must reposition themselves for profitable retail business 8 4 Looking back: did banks grow successfully? 10 4.1 A retrospective analysis of the growth factors for 865 banks, worldwide 10 4.2 Clear trends shaped the banking industry in Europe and worldwide 11 4.3 The influences contributing to market-to-book 14 5 Looking ahead 18 5.1 The market situation and basic survey principles 18 5.2 Organic growth in retail banking: focused growth no frills 19 5.3 Outgrowing the market: the need for competitive differentiation 27 5.4 Key capabilities to achieve organic growth 32 5.5 Differentiated by success? 33 6 Linking our research with practical growth strategies 34 7 How banks grow profitably lessons from some leaders 36 8 Appendix: additional empirical results by country 38 9 Contacts 42 3 1 Preface Senior executives from the European banking industry have contributed greatly to this report. Our thanks go to all of them for giving us their valuable insights into the structure and future of their industry, and for generously devot- ing their time in discussion of the issues. Thomas Gith Partner Accenture Eric Veron Partner Accenture Over the past decade banks have faced a period of economic downturn in which some banks have disappeared altogether, unable to compete successfully, or been swallowed by rivals. To cope with the economic downturn banks resorted to cost cutting and operational rationaliza- tion. But, now, as the economic climate changes, these same banks are seeking out the right path back to systematic, long-term, profitable growth. In order to understand the nature of this transition, and its Europe-wide implica- tions, Accenture recently completed a comprehensive two-stage study. The quantitative part of the program, carried out by E-Finance Lab, the think tank for Financial Services Studies at the University of Frankfurt, analyzed bank sector performance for the period 1995 to 2003. This was designed to assess to what extent banks grew, whether their growth was profitable, and if an empiri- cal formula could be identified to indi- cate how banks should best operate for success. The hypotheses for this part of the study were as follows: Hypothesis 1 On average, growth was not associated with shareholder value creation. Hypothesis 2 Revenue diversification improves spread and boosts market-to- book. As important, we wanted to find out how retail banks view the future. Are they changing strategies? Will they take additional and alternative measures for long-term growth? And do their visions and plans differ from country to coun- try? To find the answers to these ques- tions Accenture conducted a qualitative survey with bank executives in seven European countries where the banking industry is in a transitional phase. The survey used in-depth interviews to de- termine the business and market cir- cumstances and trends as these execu- tives currently see them, and how they plan to go forward. The hypothesis for this part of the two- stage study was: Hypothesis 3 Banks will focus on prof- itable growth strategies and act clearly to differentiate themselves in an ever more competitive retail banking market- place. Along with growth, profitability, lon- gevity of performance and consistency, positioning for the future is a key di- mension of high performance for any business. The survey provides some in- sights that can help Europes retail banks become or remain high-performing businesses. 4 Many banks lost market value during the recent economic downturn. Their re- sponses, naturally enough, were to adjust their operating models and streamline their cost structures. Now, however, the European retail banking sector finds itself moving into a post-rationalization phase. The need now is to refocus on the re- attainment of long-term profitable rev- enue growth. Empty growth has destroyed banks value The ratio between market value and book value of the equity capital for all banks in our survey declined from 2.4 in 1996 to 1.8 in 2003, and profitability steadily declined. In addition, average spread (the excess return above cost of capital) plunged from 5.7 percent in 1999 to a meager 2.9 percent in 2003. What this means is that many banks experienced empty growth growth that did not even recoup capital costs. To assess this situation in detail, Accenture asked E-Finance Lab, a Finan- cial Services think tank at the University of Frankfurt, to analyze the performance of the worlds largest listed banks, to- gether with some non-listed banks. E-Finance Labs conclusions are as follows: Growth, alone, is not enough Equity growth and revenue diversification were key trends in global banking in the past decade. Between 1995 and 2003 the development of banks equity growth rates averaged 16 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). But growth, alone, is not sufficient for success. Revenue diversication does boost protability At the same time, revenue diversification increased by nearly 50 percent to an index value of 35. Revenue diversification does help banks exploit economies of scope, and positively influences profit- ability. By concurrently diversifying re v- enue types and actively promoting growth, sales efficiency increases. At the 2 Executive Summary same time, through cross-selling, higher fee revenues offset any slight decrease in interest revenues. Banks that emphasize interest revenues gain most from greater diversification. In E-Finance Labs model calculation, an increase in revenue diversification from an index value of 29 to 44 resulted in an average improvement of 2.8 percent- age points in return on equity (ROE) for an average bank. The keys to success: protability plus qualied growth in revenue diversi- cation The study shows that, on their own, neither organic nor M&A growth neces- sarily lead to value creation. Rather, it is through the exploitation of economies of scope, in the context of a rigorously exe- cuted strategy, that value will accrue. As evidence, when equity growth and spread each increase by 1 percentage point, market value growth is stronger by almost 10 percentage points. 4 5 Towards 2008: new levels of effectiveness, differentiation and competitiveness So much for the past, but what about the near future? Using in-depth interviews, Accenture sought to find out the future intentions of 43 leading retail banks in Europe. The predominantly favored strategy, it emerges, is growth with four-fifths of respondents favoring organic growth rather than M&As. Interestingly, retail banks are now setting a course for long- term growth that must, of itself, lead to increased competition. In turn, this will create an imperative for ever sharper and better communicated competitive differ- entiation. The qualitative survey uncovered three key factors that, in Accentures view, indi- cate the shape of the retail banking mar- ket of the near future. 1) Retail banks ambitions look set to create hyper competition For the most part, European retail banks have not historically pursued aggressive customer acquisition. Rather, they could rely on inertia to maintain a sufficient cus- tomer base. But the situation looks set to change. All survey respondents talk about an imperative for significant growth. In France, 50 percent of banks are convinced they can outgrow the market; in Germany, 40 percent; and in Switzerland, 30 percent. Indeed, 40 percent of all of those inter- viewed say they plan to outgrow the market, some by 10 percent or more. Considering the banking industrys his- torical growth rates (for example, 2.8 per- cent CAGR for the period 19972003, in Germany) these really do represent stretch goals, and this activity implies a dramatic intensification of competition. The banks interviewed represent on average almost 40 percent of their market- places, so it seems reasonable to project that radical change is imminent. When a number of hungry, agile banks shift up a gear, the remainder will be forced to re- spond in kind. 2) New-style modular products will transform value creation Bank customers have, for a long time, been presented with often complex and inflexible products. But bank executives now realize that, in order to achieve their growth ambitions, the situation must change. Individual, modularized products and better services are now seen as the means to deliver value for money in retail bank- ing. Overall, two-thirds of the bankers in- terviewed strongly support modularized products as a means to cross sell. In France and Germany about 70 percent support this view, and in the Netherlands there was a clean sweep with a 100 per- cent support rating. This means that a complete shift in the way retail banking products are designed, constructed and delivered is required and is imminent. Over-complexity and inelas- ticity must go, to be replaced by greater modularity and clarity in banking product design, and a more individual sales ap- proach to customers. 5 6 3) The value of retail branch networks is being rediscovered In the recent past, with cost cutting at the top of their agendas, and the rise of online banking, banks made the assump- tion that the retail bank branch network could be minimized. The truth, it now emerges, is quite different. In the identi- fied near future, where ultra competition is set to generate new cross-sellable prod- ucts, bankers now realize that their bricks- and-mortar branches are very valuable assets. Because they enable professional, face-to-face customer interactions, branches are a most important channel for closing a sale. Other channels may complement the branches, but they are no substitute. Overall, 75 percent of the bankers inter- viewed strongly supported the branch renaissance thesis. Surprisingly, however, only 56 percent of the German and 25 per- cent of the Dutch sample did so a point that raises the question, how do they in- tend to grow market share, let alone out- grow the market? The qualitative part of the survey en- abled us to test our own Accenture view- point about the best way for retail banks to progress. This viewpoint, that sub- stance is crucial, was generally confirmed. Substance, in this context, means com- prehensive know-how, seamless pro- cesses, and the skills and capabilities needed to provide an individual and dif- ferentiated service. By this means, banks can secure more long-term revenues from established customers and additional sales from new customers. Three key capability groups for revenue growth The qualitative survey shows that, to date, the European banking industry has strug- gled to achieve a clearly differentiated market position, and tends to lag other industries in terms of an ability to project unique market (or brand) perceptions. In addition, banks have not met customer expectations for differentiated offerings and service. In other words, banks do not clearly exhibit any uniqueness, in terms of products, services, brands or business models. Our survey revealed three key capability requirements for profitable growth in the European retail banking marketplaces three capabilities necessary if banks are to achieve the crucial outcome of creating and maintaining differentiated market positions: Deliver a branded customer experience Industrialize the marketing and selling process Align the service model with customer segments Deliver a branded customer experience Responding to customer needs and ex- pectations (convenience, recognition, simplification, and empowerment) re- quires that all of a banks external market interactions are aligned. If it is to be suc- cessful, everything a bank does (as exem- plified by products or services), everything it says (including, for example, through its visual identity and web presence), and how it executes these things (via its em- ployees attitudes and behaviors), must be fully aligned. The strength of a banks brand, and hence its reputation, is power- fully influenced by the cumulative effect of these contributory factors to any customer interaction experience. Self- evidently, these have a powerful effect on customer retention. A number of successful exemplars attest to the ways that banks can build distinctive brand positionings: from a single organizational brand through to a portfolio of product brands, or a hybrid approach. Whatever approach is adopted, it is important that it is managed tightly, enabling sophisticated brand tracking to be related to returns. Brand promises must be fulfilled through customer inter- actions across all channels, because multi-channel customers are more satis- fied, more loyal, and more profitable. Both personal and virtual customer experiences are crucial and need to be consistent. When branches are integrated with other channels, and when they pro- vide consistently excellent customer ex- periences, every point of contact becomes an engine for sales and service. Although banks have invested in this area in the last five years, a lot remains to be done to improve customer data integration and value-added services offered through non-branch channels. Improving the ability to adapt to changing customer behaviors in channel usage will be a success factor in delivering the right customer experience. Few banks seem fully to comprehend the potential of the internet as a means to transform their relationships with certain customers, and yet we are on the brink of a revolution whereby ubiquitous high speed networks will likely offer permanent connection to banking services. 6 7 Industrialize the marketing and selling process An optimized selling process is necessary to leverage the potential of existing cus- tomers and sales forces, managing and controlling selling efforts in such a man- ner as to reveal and share best practices. Segmentation is key to this desirable out- come segmentation of customers and sales forces. Segmentation of a banks sales force, in terms of performance and individual quality, helps determine best sales behav- iors and leads to the identification of a best practice sales capability develop- ment path. Complemented by new incen- tive and reward systems based around products (volume, revenue) and cus- tomers (contact/selling rate), the alloca- tion of best performers and the use of in- novative tools to spread the most effec- tive sales behaviors is a key factor to grow revenues, profitability, and customer bases. It all amounts to truly relevant customer relationship management (CRM). To further industrialize the selling process, an inte- grated approach will use customer insight to shape customer experience at all cus- tomer touch points, and thereby close the sales and marketing loop. The crucial re- quirement is that, whenever any person or any system meets a customer, the informa- tion available is comprehensive, accurate, up to date, and capable of giving a 360 view of a given customers needs within the context of an organizations offerings. Align the service model with customer segments Service models should be implemented not only in organizational terms, but also in terms of differentiated sales and service behaviors by customer segment. Successful banks segment their customer bases to provide targeted product and ser- vice propositions and, hence, value prop- ositions. The differentiation in service is key (from a basic minimum through to a sophisticated, rich service portfolio) to achieve customer satisfaction, economi- cally offering the right value for money. Delivering the right experience, and achieving significant and sustained growth, requires a clear strategic vision, an environment that drives passionate execution over time, orchestration of the most critical programs, and buy-in and commitment from employees. In sum, retail banking growth will come from the provision of fairly-priced (rather than cheap) modular products, backed up with excellent advice and service, made available to customers at revitalized bank branches. 7 8 3 Europes banks must reposition themselves for protable retail business In the 1990s retail banks invested heavily in new technologies and expanded into new product areas and geographies, often via mergers & acquisitions. Then came the economic downturn. Banks were hit hard. To counter the threats to their profitability, they focused on short- term efficiency measures and cost reduction. 1 But the fact is, even today, many banks have neither regained full profitability nor achieved sustainable profitable growth. The capital markets do not reward cost reduction alone. Banks now realize that superior cost management does not, of itself, generate shareholder value on a long-term basis. From cost cutting to growth: cultivating new methods In the shift to growth, banks are now concentrating their efforts on revenue generation. The inevitable consequence is an increase in competitive intensity in many markets. Banks are vying for the same customers and product segments. In short, retail banks face strategic and operational uncertainties, which they must overcome if they are to be success- ful. The essential question now is, what can banks do to achieve sustainable, profitable growth? Broadly, two routes to growth are pos- sible: organic and via M&As. The M&A route is often risky and painful, and an ever less promising list of target candi- dates remains. The alternative, organic growth, permits banks to play to their genuine strengths in customer services and pursue individual avenues to growth and profitability. Three hypotheses In order to determine whether banks have managed to increase their value through organic or through M&A growth in the past, and how they will position themselves for future growth, Accenture tested three hypotheses while conducting the research program: Hypothesis 1 On average, growth was not associated with shareholder value creation. Hypothesis 2 Revenue diversication improves spread and boosts market-to-book. Hypothesis 3 Banks will focus on protable growth strategies and act clearly to differentiate themselves in an ever more com- petitive retail banking market- place. 1) See also Accenture: Avoiding the Value Trap, How banks can use Capability Based Re-structuring to increase share- holder value, 2002. 9 For Accenture, E-Finance Lab examined hypotheses 1 and 2 in a unique research program. For the first time, the simulta- neous impact of equity capital growth and revenue diversification on the mar- ket value of banks was analyzed in a sta- tistical model. To test hypothesis 3, Accenture used an in-depth questionnaire to survey executives in the European banking industry, to shed light on their strategic intentions and specific measures for regaining profitable revenue growth in the retail sector. 10 4.1 A retrospective analysis of the growth factors for 865 banks, world- wide E-Finance Lab analyzed the effects of growth and diversification strategies of global banks on their capability to create shareholder value over the period 1995 to 2003. The Lab examined the develop- ment of the banks equity basis and the ways in which they grew. The research model helps explain how banks can in- crease their value while they grow. 865 listed and non-listed banks in the European Union, in Switzerland, North America, and in Australia were analyzed. These reflect more than 90 percent of their respective countries market capi- talization in the banking industry. Most of these banks belong to the re- tail and universal bank segments. Spe- cialized banks, such as mortgage and in- vestment banks, made up less than 10 percent of the sample. 4 Looking back: did banks grow successfully? Overview Equity capital growth and revenue diversification were essential trends in banking in recent years. Nonetheless, many banks did not even earn their capital costs, let alone a reasonable return above their cost of capital (spread). Seemingly, banks successes in equity growth and rev- enue diversification did not pay off in terms of higher spread or increased market- to-book. LxhhI 1: Ana|yzcd hanks hy counIry 2003 USA -07 la|, 77 Un|ed K|ndom 87 Sa|n 107 lrance 107 Cerman, 77 Sw|zer- |and 37 Canada 27 Ausra||a 37 Rerosec|ve ana|,s|s. o oua|n a |cure o uan||n ue|av|or and deve|omen or |e er|od 100--2003, L-l|nance Lau ana|,zed 80- uan|s. Source. L-l|nance Lau, Un|vers|, o lran|ur 200- The unique multidimen- sional empirical analysis carried out by E-Finance Lab shows that the key to success for retail banks is growth via a combination of spread (ROE minus the cost of capital) and exploit- ing economies of scope by revenue diversification. The model shows that, for the average bank, where equity growth and spread each increase by 1 percent- age point, the extra growth in market value added amounts to 10 percentage points. 11 4.2 Clear trends shaped the banking industry in Europe and worldwide In recent years, essential trends in worldwide banking have been: 1. equity capital growth 2. revenue diversification On average, the sample banks have strongly extended their equity base and have increased their level of revenue di- versification. Because average perfor- mance declined over the same time hori- zon, one might conclude that growth and diversification had a negative im- pact on performance. E-Finance Lab took a closer look at this phenomenon. Organic growth has supported equity capital growth Banks equity book values on average in- creased by about 16 percent per annum during the period 1995-2003. The size of this growth may seem surprising, espe- cially taking account of the poor eco- nomic growth since 2000 in most coun- tries and the simultaneous restructuring within the banking sector. We see the re- tention of profits for increasing reserves as the main driving force of this evolu- tion. This represents a reactive behavior in adverse market conditions, rather than an aggressive growth strategy. It is necessary, however, to take ac- count of the basis of this measurement used by E-Finance Lab: Organic growth is measured in terms of the unweighted arithmetic mean of the annual change in book value of banks equity capital ad- justed for M&A activities. 2
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Index CAGR 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Throughout the secondary research, growth is measured by equity growth. Note: The overall growth behavior is similar for total assets, revenues and equity. Total Organic M&A Divestitures 16% 14% 2% -0.3% Exhibit 2: Index of the development of the unweighted arithmetic means of all banks growth rates of equity bases in the sample 1995-2003 (all banks, 1995 = 100) Organic growth contributed about 90 percent of the total growth for all European banks. We found considerable differences be- tween country-specific organic growth rates in Europe. Germany, at 9 percent CAGR, lagged France (11 percent) and Switzerland (13 percent). Exploiting core business Mergers & acquisitions accounted for only 2 percentage points of total growth in the banking industry worldwide. Divestitures were also considered, but had virtually no influence on the picture of worldwide equity capital growth. The minimal impact of M&A growth on the industrys development led us to focus on organic growth; the improvement and exploitation of the core business of retail banks. 2) Growth is measured by changes in equity capital (and has been validated by a 2nd calculation based on changes in banks total assets). Organic growth is the difference be- tween total growth and M&A driven book equity changes. Despite significant M&A activity, mergers contributed only marginally to overall growth. Source: E-Finance Lab, University of Frankfurt 2005 12 The observed growth was empty. Banks consumed value E-Finance Labs analysis shows that growth and profitability were not aligned for many banks. Exhibit 3 shows four spread-growth combinations. Of these, the upper right quadrant, in which banks grow quickly and profitably, is the only desirable outcome. Many banks in the analysis tended to grow without earning their capital costs. Some even shrank without profit. Many fast-growing banks did not even earn their capi- tal costs, let alone a reason- able return above their cost of capital (spread). All banks in the lower two quadrants of Exhibit 3 have negative spread and, thereby, destroy value by not earning their capital costs, which, for this exam- ple, were based on an average for all countries. At the same time the banks differed greatly in average growth rates of book value of equity capital. Empty growth bulk without nutrition Some of the banks in the lower right quadrant of Exhibit 3 have growth rates considerably above average, but with negative spread. We term this phenome- non, where banks grow without earning their capital costs, empty growth. It is analogous to empty calories which provide bulk without nutrition. Thus, the banks consume their equity capital rather than investing in profitable and value- creating business. Many German banks are to be found in this regrettable situa- tion. Banks in the upper left quadrant of Exhibit 3 grew unsatisfactorily, despite their high return on equity (ROE). Strik- ing examples are found among British banks. S p r e a d
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C o C ) High profitability but negative growth Banks creating value by earniang more than their capital costs Banks destroying value by not earning their capital costs No profitability no growth Profitability plus equity growth Growing with negative spread -50% -20% 20% 0% 0% 50% 100% Growth alone is not enough. Many fast growing banks dont even earn their capital costs, let alone a reasonable spread. Source: E-Finance Lab, University of Frankfurt 2005 Exhibit 3: Return on equity and growth rates of equity capital, all banks, CAGR (19952003) Growth rates of equity capital 13 3) E-Finance Lab measured diversication by an inverse Herndahl index. Based on four different revenue catego- ries, an index value of close to 75 percent means banks obtain their revenues from all four of the considered revenue categories in equal shares. A value of, for example, 20, could mean the greater part is delivered by 90 percent of interest income, and the rest equally distributed be- tween the three other revenue streams. Generally speak- ing, the index value increases with the number of revenue sources and decreases as a specic revenue category dominates. 20 25 30 % 35 40 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 I n v e r s e
H e r f i n d a h l
I n d e x Revenue diversification did increase, but it was not systematically culti- vated for profitable growth During the period under observation, revenue diversification increased for all banks by almost 50 percent to an index value of about 35. 3 An index value close to 75 means banks obtain their revenues in equal shares from all four revenue categories (interest, fees, trading, other income). An increase in diversification implies a more even distribution across the four income types. As a rule it also entails a declining dominance of interest activi- ties and, therefore, more consistency. Often the diversification of the entire revenue basis results in better margins. Have banks tried to boost their profits and market value by diversification of revenues? As with the observed remark- able growth of the banks, this apparently positive outcome only partly stands up under closer scrutiny. Improving by chance For one thing, the high degree of diversi- fication may have been a passive statis- tical reaction to recently declining inter- est margins, increasing the proportion of other revenue types. E-Finance Lab carried out stringent ad- ditional regression analyses. The results prove that the observed revenue diversi- fication happened randomly rather than having been actively pursued via growth strategies. Banks did not systematically implement organic growth, or M&A activity, or dis- investment in order to diver- sify their revenue basis. This strongly suggests that many, if not most, banks grew somewhat arbitrarily or with goals other than an increase in shareholder value. Banks did not push their revenue diversification in a goal- oriented manner. Exhibit 4: Diversification all banks 19952003 measured with inverse Herfindahl index Banks have diversified by 49% in eight years. Source: E-Finance Lab, University of Frankfurt 2005 14 The dominance of empty growth equity capital growth without impact on market value Average market-to-book of the observed banks declined from 1997 to 2002, due in part to the overall economic climate. Spread, excess return above cost of capi- tal, was low in the last three years of the period under review. Seemingly, banks successes in equity growth and revenue diversication did not pay off in terms of higher spread or increased market-to- book. Two systemic reasons explain the inabili- ty of banks to buck the performance trend: 1. Generally, banks did not grow in a profit-oriented manner. 2. Banks have not yet achieved their optimal level of revenue diversification. Performance might have been even lower if banks had not enhanced diversi- fication. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2001 2003 M a r k e t - t o - b o o k
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% D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n Market-to-book Spread (%) Diversification 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 % 2.9 2.4 3.1 5.0 5.7 3.6 4.6 5.0 4.8 4.3 The inuences contributing to market-to-book Accelerating the increase of banks market value E-Finance Labs analysis indicates that there actually is a causal relationship be- tween equity capital growth and diversi- fication, and market-to-book. How can we predict what banks might have achieved through focused growth strat- egies? E-Finance Lab developed a model calculation and analyzed how equity growth, spread and revenue diversifica- tion impact on a banks value. Exhibit 5: Market-to-book, spread and diversification, all banks (1995-2003) Banks past efforts were without impact on market-to-book or spread. Source: E-Finance Lab, University of Frankfurt 2005 15 Identifying the levers to r evitalize market-to-book A stylized value tree for banks illustrates the two fundamental growth strategies, examined so as to establish their simul- taneous effect on market value. 1. To broaden revenues (diversification) in order to increase the spread (return on equity minus cost of capital) and market-to-book. 2. To raise equity capital in order to in- crease the base of revenue growth and market valuation. A banks market capitalization crucially depends on changes in market value added (MVA). It is a factor within a bank managements direct influence. The main levers involved are: (1) Growing the capital base to leverage the impact of spread on market value. 4
Recent years have seen intensive M&A activity. We therefore clearly distinguish between organic equity growth and growth through M&A, and between the impacts of each. (2) Increase of spread. Spread 5 is a func- tion of revenues, expenses and cost of equity. As a matter of fact, diversifica- tion was found to have a positive effect on revenues and a negative effect on expenses. E-Finance Lab sees several causes for this: Cost-income ratios were found to decline in response to revenue diversi- fication. This result suggests that di- versification unleashes cost synergies. Asset margins were found to increase in response to revenue diversification. In fact, slightly lower interest margins were overcompensated by significantly higher fee margins. It was found that banks that have been heavily relying on interest related businesses benefited the most from diversification into other areas. This suggests that retail banks should (continue to) strengthen service offer- ings and products that generate non- interest revenue. Net interest / assets Net fees / assets Organic growth Growth through M&A Trading & other income / assets Cost / income Return on equity Cost of capital Equity capital growth Spread Market-to-book Market value added Invested capital Diversification lever Growth levers Value levers Exhibit 6: The value tree: Increase of market value added Levers of banks market value operated simultaneously by growth and diversification. Source: E-Finance Lab, University of Frankfurt 2005 4) The growth of revenues and of equity is closely correlat- ed, especially for retail and universal banks, which repre- sented the majority of our sample. Changes in revenues could also be drawn on as an approximate measure for growth. The development of revenues correlates with equity growth for the examined time period. Market-to- book and the value lever spread (return on equity minus equity costs) refer to the banks equity. In order to remain consistent within our model we therefore illustrate the growth of banks by means of the equity basis. 5) As management can inuence the costs of equity only to a limited degree, the analysis of this lever concentrates on changing return on equity (ROE). 16 Growth alone is not enough Using the key financials published by the examined banks, E-Finance Lab identi- fied the average bank. This formed the basis for observing the effects of equity growth on, respectively, increasing spread on the market value added and on market-to-book. The examination of these simultaneous influences high- lighted a dramatic result: 1. Both, organic equity growth or growth through M&A, have, on average, a slightly negative effect on the devel- opment of market value added. 2. The influence of spread is very marked. An increase of 1 percentage point considerably accelerates the growth of the average market value added. 3. When equity growth and spread each increase by 1 percentage point, Market value growth is almost 10 percentage points stronger. Exhibit 7 illustrates the impact of the levers separately and combined. The multidimensional empiri- cal analysis by E-Finance Lab showed that the key to success for retail banks is a sound blend of revenue diversication and selective growth. Diversication exploits economies of scope and selective growth strate- gies leverage value-creating activities. Market value added Spread (ROE - CoC) E q u i t y
g r o w t h Invested capital +1% point spread combined with 1% point additional equity growth results in additional 9.9% points of MVA growth +1% point +1% point -1% point -1% point +9.9% points -10.4% points 11.0% p.a. +9.6% points -9.1% points Effects on market value added for the average bank: spread plus equity growth works best. Source: E-Finance Lab, University of Frankfurt 2005 Exhibit 7: Impact of equity growth and spread on market value added (MVA). Effects (in % points) on average MVA growth (11% p.a.) for listed banks 17 18 5 Looking ahead 5.1 The market situation and basic survey principles This part of the study involved 43 in- depth interviews with European retail bank executives, covering large sections of those countries banking industries. Summary of Accentures primary research methodology: Survey duration: April to July 2005 Countries: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland Target list: about 200 retail and univer- sal banks Success ratio: 22 percent Basis for analysis: 43 banks Growth in our primary survey applies to revenue 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 24% 23% 84% 33% 86% 9% 2% Germany Austria Switzerland France Netherlands Finland Norway %
o f
M a r k e t In addition to E-Finance Labs quantita- tive analysis, Accenture conducted a complementary qualitative study to find out what banks have learned from the challenges of recent years and how they plan to go forward. The aim was to discover what conclu- sions retail banks are drawing from the present state of the industry and how they intend to return to higher efficiency and profitability levels. We purposely chose banks in European markets that have recently been challenged in growth and profitability terms Austria, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland. Cerman, 437 Ausr|a 27 Sw|zer|and 287 lrance 147 Ne|er|ands 07 l|n|and 27 Norwa, 27 !|e vas maor|, o |nerv|ewees were rom Cerman,, Sw|zer|and, lrance and |e Ne|er|ands. 0n averae, |e oa| asses o |e |nerv|ewed uan|s cover a resecau|e 38 ercen o |e mar|es. Source. Accenure 200- Exhibit 8b: Total assets of interviewed banks in % total assets banking industry by country LxhhI 8a: Prmary rcscarch nIcrvcws hy counIry n % 19 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % 17% 7% 7% 7% 10% 38% 38% 33% 24% 48% 7% 2% Focus is generally shifting from cost reduction to growth Stakeholders urge their banks to grow aggressively Most retail banks have regained adequate profitability Growth is the most critical factor for financial performance Foreign players will enter the market aggressively Bold growth can only be achieved through M&A Mostly agree Fully agree Exhibit 9: Which statements about your domestic retail banking market would you subscribe to? Focus of bank managements attention is shifting from cost reduction to growth additionally driven by stakeholders expectations. Source: Accenture 2005 Overview Retail banks are not yet achieving adequate levels of profitability, but their focus is rapidly shifting to growth. Cost reductions are still on the agenda, but banks recog- nize that they need to main- tain investments that will promote subsequent growth. Growth is the main goal: 80 percent of respondents prefer organic growth . Bankers are convinced that they can outgrow the market and win market share. This means, axiomatically, that competition will increase. Banks recognize the need to extend their customer bases and cross-sell. 5.2 Organic growth in retail banking: focused growth no frills Perceptions, priorities and motives in the European retail banking market Bankers general perceptions of their retail markets The majority of the bankers surveyed believe that retail banks have not yet re- gained adequate profitability levels. The focus rests on the ability both to gener- ate revenues and to further reduce costs. Retail banks are not yet achieving adequate prot- ability levels, but their focus is rapidly shifting to growth. The banks surveyed fall into two groups, each at a different stage. In Germany and the Netherlands only a few banks have reached adequate profitability. A quarter of Dutch bankers believe that profitability has not recov- ered at all, and half believe that it has only partially recovered. In contrast, French and Swiss banks believe that their markets are sufficiently profitable. One third of French bankers fully agree, and half mostly agree. Swiss bankers are a little more skeptical, but over 65 percent are confident that profitability has returned to adequate levels. 20 Increase revenues Reduce costs Increase operational focus on distribution Improve capital efficiency Decrease risk exposure Undertake more outsourcing Increase operational focus on production Undertake more insourcing (to achieve scale economies) 1st important 2nd important 3rd important Number of responses (multiple responses possible) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Bankers ranked revenue growth as the dominant means to achieve profitability. More than four-fifths rank revenue in- creases as one of their three most im- portant action items. A belief that further economies of scale depend on increased revenues Banks believe that revenue growth is necessary to take up the slack in cur- rently underutilized capacities and, thereby, deliver economies of scale. Bankers strongly believe that growth will enable the achievement of cost ef- cient scale. Capacity should be used more efciently. General manager of Scandinavian banking group Bankers from France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland particularly emphasize growth to achieve cost effi- cient scales. Banks expecting high growth rates may have to increase scale capabilities to satisfy potential future demand. Thus a key topic is reduction of the right costs. The challenge to make only the right cuts Although retail banks in many countries have reduced staff, closed branches and implemented cost reduction initiatives, bankers still see the potential for further cuts. Cost reduction is still a hot topic, but there is an aware- ness of the need to avoid cutting back the prerequi- sites for subsequent growth! As revenues fell in the past few years, bankers cut costs with little impact on the operational capabilities or quality. Now, little leeway remains for further reductions. Cost reduction will be a dead end. Sales manager of a Dutch bank Not all countries stress the need for fur- ther cost reductions. French banks are less concerned about cost reduction; half of the French respondents do not believe that their bank needs to drive further savings. The growth motives: investor-driven and prot focused A substantial majority of respondents across all countries state that investors expect profitable growth. Only a minority support a mere expansion of market share. Aggressive tendencies are not in evidence Other motives for growth, such as the ability to acquire other banks, expansion into other countries or fending off possible acquisition activities of other banks, do not play a major role in bankers plans. Exhibit 10: Hot topics and burning platforms: how Europes retail bankers view the situation Retail bankers top topics: respondents see a more urgent need for action in each category for their own bank than the general market. This is especially true for revenue increase. Source: Accenture 2005 21 Only in France does growth figure prominently as a means to acquire other banks or to expand into other countries. Growth as a means to fend off hostile takeovers is a concern only to Dutch bankers. Even in Germany, where many of our respondents expect foreign banks to aggressively enter the domestic mar- ket, growth as a means to fend off take- overs does not feature prominently. How retail banks see their strategic options: intentions and plans 80 percent of respondents favor organic growth Overwhelmingly, retail bankers favor organic growth options. However, in Germany and Switzerland an even split between organic and M&A growth in domestic markets is favored by 30 per- cent and 17 percent of the respondents, respectively. One of the reasons might be the continued existence of closed bank- ing groups (such as savings and mutual banking) which are driving internal con- solidation. However, in most markets the time for large-scale domestic M&A is past. M&A as a means to expand in non- home markets Some banks do view M&A as a preferred route in non-home markets. M&As allow them to learn at first hand about the viability of transferred product offerings. At the end of the 1990s, many retail banks expanded into other European markets, but, today, despite some recent M&As, there is little evidence that we can expect a surge in such activities. Regional support for M&A The countries that voice some support for overseas growth via M&As are those where a small number of players domi- nate a market, limiting the options for home growth: the Netherlands and, to a large extent, France. French banks are most likely to consider M&A growth abroad; two-thirds are considering ex- pansion largely via M&A and the other third only via M&A. We can expect larger-scale cross-border takeovers from one or the other large Dutch or French banks, especially in Germany, which has the largest retail banking market in Europe. Swiss banks intend to develop in for- eign markets exclusively through organ- ic growth. The big Swiss banks have made some inroads into foreign markets in the past but have now largely re- focused on their domestic retail banking market. The survey showed no evidence that the cantonal banks are planning expansion abroad. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 40% 33% 12% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 7% 26% 47% 42% Our investors expect profitable growth Growth enables us to achieve cost efficient scale Our investors expect a quick expan- sion of market share Growth enables us to expand into other countries Growth enables us to acquire other banks Growth enables us to fend off a potential takeover Mostly agree Fully agree % Four-fifths of respondents feel that revenue growth is needed in order to achieve cost efficient scale - and they know that investors expect profitable growth. Source: Accenture 2005 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 45 40 50 % 40% 40% 17% 2% 0% Only Largely Mix Largely M&A Only M&A organic organic Exhibit 12: In your home market, do you want to grow organically or via M&A? Exhibit 11: Banks attitudes to growth In total 80 percent of respondents do believe in organic growth. In their home market the overwhelming majority plan to grow organically. Source: Accenture 2005 22 A general optimism about retail bankings growth prospects Bankers opinions vary as to how much their domestic retail banking market will grow in the next few years. About half of bankers foresee markets growing by 05 percent; a further 40 percent envisage growth of between 5 and 10 percent; and some optimistic bankers expect even higher growth. Bankers are convinced that they can outgrow the market and win market share. Com- petition will increase. Many respondents are confident that their own banks can outgrow the gener- al retail banking market. This means that everyone hopes to take market share from others, which must inevitably lead to intense competition. A positive climate in Germany German bankers are especially confident about outgrowing other market players: more than a quarter believe that they can grow above 10 percent per annum. At the same time, a majority in Germany believe that growth prospects are so positive that foreign entrants will aggressively enter their market. This all implies fierce competition in Germany. Low expectations in France and Switzerland France offers less growth potential. Bankers do not think that their banks will grow much above the general retail banking market. The same applies to Switzerland; bankers here also expect low growth. The other countries are in between these two groupings, with moderate growth forecast for the market and for their own bank. 0 10 20 30 40 50 70 % 60 27% 51% 12% 0% 0% 0% 42% 49% 9% 5% 0% 5% < 0% 0 5% 5% 10% 10% 15% 15% 25% > 25% Growth expectations? How much will retail banking grow in general? Growth expectations? How much does your bank expect to grow? Many respondents believe their bank can outgrow the market at times significantly. Intense competition is the likely result. Source: Accenture 2005 Exhibit 13: Growth expectations: how much will retail banking grow in general and how much does your bank expect to grow within a two to three years perspective? 23 Retail bankers bank on individual customers Retail banking, in our definition, includes mass-market individual and small busi- ness customers. A big majority almost four-fifths expect that the business with individual retail customers will grow. 50 percent of respondents also believe that business with small business customers will grow. Only one-tenth expect a further decline, and around 40 percent stagnation. A majority (70 percent) aim at an even mix of new and existing customers creating a self-evident requirement for excellent selling and cross-selling capa- bilities. Banks see a necessity to extend their customer bases, and to cross-sell. Cross-selling the magic bullet for growth in retail banking? Almost 90 percent of respondents believe that improved cross-selling is essential for growth. In all of the sur- veyed countries cross-selling is a key theme with roughly the same high level of acceptance in France, Germany and Switzerland. Small minorities in Switzerland and Germany evaluated cross-selling as partially or not at all important. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % 0% 2% 24% 69% Existing only Largely existing Mix Largely new Only new 5% 0 10 20 30 40 50 70 60 % 2% 10% 50% 38% Not at all Partially Mostly Fully Exhibit 15: We need to intensify cross-selling Exhibit 14: Will you focus your initiatives on existing or new customers? Aggressive selling will largely be aimed at existing customers but new customers will also be targeted. Source: Accenture 2005 Cross-selling is a key theme throughout all the countries. Source: Accenture 2005 24 Are retail banks bold enough to test new markets? Will bankers concentrate on markets they know or which have already been tested by competitors? Or are they bold enough to test new markets in order to gain a first-mover advantage? A courageous near-90 percent of the respondents will not wait until competi- tion has tested markets for new prod- ucts they say they are prepared to take a pioneer positions themselves. Never- theless, 87 percent will avoid uncertain market segments. The time for experi- ments is apparently over profitable growth in markets with the greatest growth forecasts is the name of the game. Only in the beginning we are willing to lose money. CEO of a retail bank in Germany 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % 48% 40% 40% 28% 18% 18% 10% 38% 8% 5% We will not wait until competitors have tested the market for new products We grow only in those markets with the greatest growth forecasts We only grow in selected business areas where returns on invested capital exceed the cost of capital We want to grow only in new areas to achieve income diversification We grow in selected young, yet uncertain market segments to benefit from first-mover status Mostly agree Fully agree Exhibit 16: How does your bank evaluate certain growth options? Retail bankers focus their growth initiatives on markets that promise success and profitability. They say they wont wait for competitors to test a market, but are reluctant to enter uncertain markets. Income diversification is currently not a major topic. Source: Accenture 2005 25 26 Overview A strong brand as a key dif- ferentiating asset in the retail banking mass market has to be cultivated. But bankers distrust their banks brand strengths. Broadly targeted mass- marketing techniques, such as direct mailing and nation- wide advertisements, are not greatly favored. Bankers want to invest in personal advisory capabilities in retail banking. Low pricing strategies are out. The lessons of low prof- itability have been learned. Individual, modularized products and service im- provements are the preferred strategies for delivering value for money in retail banking. Bricks-and-mortar branches as anchors for cross-selling are experiencing a renais- sance. Therefore, improvement in capabilities such as data mining, sales force advisory and personal skills, and im- proved workflows, rank high on bankers agendas. In summary, banks now envisage growth in the retail sector coming from the provision of fairly (but not cheaply) priced modular products, backed up by efficient service and advice, available to customers at revitalized branches. 27 5.3 Outgrowing the market: the need for competitive differentiation Preparing the ground for organic growth: brand improvement and marketing options Cross-selling and growth are under- pinned by sales-supporting features, including the banks brands, advisory capabilities and marketing options. Will banks pursue different routes to competitive differentiation? Do banks plan to grow via personal interaction, leveraging the strength of the brand and the existing relationship between cus- tomer and advisor? Or do they prefer more impersonal forms of widespread marketing initiatives? A surprising degree of uncertainty about brand strengths Brand and trust are closely intertwined, in terms of product quality and price positioning. Trusted brands in retail banking are key assets to help banks retain and gain customers. However, our research shows that bankers distrust their own brand strength. Banks recognize the power of a strong brand as a competitive differentiation in the retail banking mass market. But many bankers distrust their banks current brand strength. Only 56 percent of those surveyed regard their existing brand as a main asset. Around 40 percent believe that they have to strengthen their brand, or even introduce a new brand, if they are to build more trust across all product types. In an industry that relies heavily on trust and mutually bene- ficial relationships, this weakness is sur- prising, and seems likely to impede cross- selling. Enhancing the brand There are two ways to overcome the problem: a) strengthen the brand with which the bank currently goes to market, or b) introduce new branding, perhaps at a product level (i.e. sub-brands). Support for either option is quite low. Two-thirds of French bankers doubt that their brand is a main asset. In the Netherlands half, in Switzerland over 40 percent and in Germany nearly 40 percent of the respondents think this way. The strongest support for the introduction of new branding exists in Germany and Switzerland. The option to strengthen an existing brand is supported by 45 percent. Scattergun versus rie shot: respon- dents choose targeted marketing Respondents do not greatly favor imper- sonal marketing techniques like undiffer- entiated direct mail or mass advertising. The majority of bankers recognize the value of more personal and customized activity. Marketing techniques like undifferentiated direct mail and mass advertising are not highly regarded. Mostly agree Fully agree Retail bankers do not widely support mass- marketing campaigns. Source: Accenture 2005 0 10 20 30 40 50 70 % 60 15% 30% 33% Our existing brand strength is our main asset We need to strengthen our brand We need to introduce new branding 21% 35% 10% Mostly agree Fully agree Too many bankers regard their brand as too weak, accordingly they seek to strengthen or to renew it. Source: Accenture 2005 Exhibit 17: Your view of different sales supporting options? 0 10 20 30 40 50 70 60 % 12% 31% 23% Direct marketing campaigns promise success Nation-wide advertisements promise success 10% Exhibit 18: How do you view mass-marketing techniques? 28 Broadly targeted sales support activities are popular in France where respondents do support direct marketing and mass advertising campaigns. There is some support for such campaigns in Germany, the Netherlands, Nordic countries and Switzerland. Its time to get personal (without compromising efciency) Almost 70 percent of respondents rec- ognize the importance of high quality advice for customers, and agree that training and support are vital. Sales force representatives should be able to give advice and make connection between client needs and product offering. This is a key focus point for the future. Board member of a Dutch banking group French and Swiss bankers, in particular, agree that there is an imperative to im- prove advisory capabilities. In Germany, however, a significant minority (around 30 percent) do not see a strong need to improve these capabilities. Given that Germany has one of the lowest cross- selling ratios and one of the lowest prof- itability levels in Europe, is this view mis- guided? German bankers may need to think again if they are to achieve higher levels of cross-selling and profitability. Pricing, product design, service improvement the next differentia- tors Many respondents stated the belief that their banks can outgrow the market. How do they plan to achieve it? One option is to undercut competitors prices. In the 1990s this was a popular strategy, especially among smaller banks and market entrants. The other option is further differentia- tion, by offering either better products or better service, or both. Pricing strategies: banks abandon cut-price strategies and offer value for money Most bankers are no longer willing to use low pricing to buy their way in to business. Only one-third of the respon- dents said that they would consider low- priced entry products to win new cus- tomers. There is, however, a greater readiness to provide special incentives for the purchase of additional products (50 percent). Give-away pricing to buy new business is out. Lessons have been learned. Although, overall, a majority of bankers have moved away from low-priced entry products as a business-attracting approach, the strategy does remain relatively popular in Germany, the Netherlands and, to some extent, Switzerland. Broadly, French, German, Dutch and Swiss retail bankers do favor offering additional incentives to secure additional business. 0 10 20 30 40 60 % 70 50 24% 43% We need to enhance advisory capabilities to increase demand We need to enhance customer service to increase demand 32% 37% 0 10 20 30 40 50 70 60 % 15% 22% Special incentives for the purchase of additional products will increase demand Low priced entry products help to win new customers Lower prices for all products are the only way to increase demand 10% 40% 2% 2% Mostly agree Fully agree Exhibit 20: What pricing strategies will increase demand for your banks products? Retail bankers are unwilling to undertake low price strategies. Source: Accenture 2005 Exhibit 19: Advisory capability training is a must Mostly agree Fully agree Retail bankers, on average, overwhelmingly support the need to improve advisory capabilities. Source: Accenture 2005 29 Product design: specic products for individual customers Retail banking has been slow to recog- nize the requirement for more focused customer offerings using precisely tar- geted products. There is strong evidence, however, that opinions are changing: retail bankers aim to develop customized products, either for specific customer groups (four-fifths) or to suit particular customer life stages (two-thirds). Individual, modular products and service improvements are favored as means to deliver value for money in retail banking. Around two-thirds of respondents strongly favor modular product offer- ings as a means to improve cross-selling. Interestingly, only 30 percent of respon- dents favor the idea of white label prod- ucts from third parties to supplement their own product ranges. A modularized product offering is especially benecial in dealing with younger customers. Norwegian bank manager On an individual country level there are some notable variations. One-third of the Swiss sample do not support product design for specific customer groups. To a lesser extent the same applies in Germany. Only one-third of the respondents in France and Germany doubt the value of product modules. Half of the French re- spondents show willingness to use white labeling to support their own product ranges. This is stronger support than in Germany, the Netherlands and Switzer- land. No general trend could be detected that might indicate which products bankers expect to generate the greatest demand. German bankers tend to em- phasize pension and long-term invest- ment products. Swiss (and German) bankers mention consumer finance products. Bankers in other markets also emphasize capital market products. No one item provides an overwhelming product focus. Customer service strategies: a host of ideas but no single prescription There is strong support for the introduc- tion of additional services to create competitive differentiation, and about two-thirds of respondents plan to en- hance customer service. Some incidental evidence on planned product and service components to in- crease demand was revealed: A Swiss bank is considering offering incentives to customers who attract new customers. A Dutch bank wants to actively solicit customers opinions on the banks ser- vice quality. A German bank is pursuing product certification with independent con- sumer protection institutions. Although these actions have already been tried by some players in the past, banks are starting to adopt more ideas from other industries; customer orienta- tion is becoming more prominent. 0 10 20 30 40 60 50 100 % 90 80 70 29% 50 % Attractive products desgned especially for particular customer groups will increase demand Lifetime value orientated product bundles will increase demand A modularized product offering will improve cross-selling We must supplement own product range by white labeling / cooperations 26% 55% 17% 24% 7% Mostly agree Fully agree 41% Exhibit 21: What measures will increase demand for your bank: product design? Product design is an area of significant current interest, especially the cus- tomization and modularization of products to suit customers specific needs. Supplementing ones own product range via white labeling is less popular. Source: Accenture 2005 30 Distribution strategies and the re- emergence of the branch A strong brand, better products, and ex- cellent advice and service are strong dif- ferentiators. What are the bankers views on how best to deliver them? In the 1990s we witnessed a prolifera- tion of new channels. Banks invested heavily, especially in electronic channels and internet portals, but not all of these were successful. Did the dot.com crash leave its marks on retail banking? The bricks-and-mortar branch is back in favor Three-quarters of respondents said that the branch will continue to be their most important distribution channel. This fits perfectly with banks plans to improve ad- visory capabilities at the points of sale. 40 percent of the respondents are in favor of implementing new branch concepts. Self-service points are important for information, but the branch remains the most important channel for closing a sale. Swiss retail banker Bricks-and-mortar retail bank branches are being re- evaluated as cross-selling anchor points. The renais- sance of the bank branch is underway. A strong emphasis on branches is not prevalent in all countries. Three-quarters of the Dutch do not support the impor- tance of the branch. In France and also in Germany about half of the respondents support branch renewal. A focus on self-service points rather than full branches is popular only in Finland. The service & sales support functions of call centers are regarded ambigu- ously Opinions about call centers differ mark- edly from thoughts about other chan- nels: two-fifths of the bankers recognize the need to improve call center capabili- ties, and some advocate the use of call centers for sales purposes. Call centers should not only focus on service but also contribute to sales. Dutch retail banker A small majority of bankers do not see a need to supplement services by improv- ing call center capabilities. In Germany, the rejection is particularly strong (80 percent). Most bankers in other coun- tries are more ambivalent, with approxi- mately half supporting action to im- prove capabilities. 23% 26% Traditional branches will continue to be the most important distribution channel We need to focus on the full integration of our channels to enable an integrated customer view New branch concepts are necessary to attract and retain customers We need to significantly improve the capabilities of our call centers Rather than opening more full-fledged branches, we want to increase self-service access points 35% 35% 40% 14% 28% 12% 10% 5% Mostly agree Fully agree Three-quarters of respondents trust the distribution strength of the branch. Source: Accenture 2005 0 10 20 30 40 60 50 100 % 90 80 70 Exhibit 22: Which distribution concepts do you value most highly in the quest to drive growth? 31 IT investment support is needed to achieve an integrated one-customer view Many banks still rely on outdated IT sys- tems, with product and customer silos. It is therefore not surprising that a majority of bankers recognize the need to fully integrate channels in order to enable an integrated one- customer view. Integration of channels is the key to success. Head of Sales & Dis- tribution of a large retail bank Bankers in Switzerland, France and Germany regard multi-channel integra- tion differently. In Germany, a majority reject the necessity for further multi- channel integration. There is skepticism about further investment in CRM tech- nologies, but improved cross-selling does require that sales personnel have an integrated customer view. Reluctance to invest in new channels Respondents see little necessity to extend channels. Very few show interest in build- ing up mobile sales forces beyond what they have in place. There is only minor sup- port for the view that Internet banking will become the most important distribution channel. UMTS and iTV will be new channels on top of existing ones. The challenge is to use them efficiently and effectively and keep costs under control. Respondents from Scandinavian coun- tries value direct channels over branches. Scandinavian banks were early adopters of online and internet banking. Customers have now integrated these channels into their normal consumer behavior. The internet will be a service/ transaction channel and pre-sales orientation, and a sales channel for simple products. Board member of large retail bank With the exception of France and Austria, no country feels a particular need to build up a mobile sales force. Dutch, French and Norwegian bankers are the only respon- dents to see a necessity to push alliances with insurers to leverage mutual sales. None of the respondents, with the ex- ception of the Dutch and Austrian bank- ers, felt that there was any particular need to increase cooperation with independent financial advisors (IFA). IFAs are not very popular in France and, even for insurance products, the banks are a dominant distri- bution channel. French bankers are now discovering mobile sales forces while others have already built up capacities. Internet banking is too expensive but we have to have it. Swiss retail banker The distribution focus rests largely on branches. Other distribution channels, especially those involving third parties, are less favored. The areas targeted for change are not necessarily related to physical infrastructure, as can be inferred from the limited willingness to implement new branch concepts or self-service capa- bilities. Instead, bankers tend to focus on people issues. 10% 6% 10% Internet banking will become the most important distribution channel We need to build up a mobile sales force We need to invest in new distribution channels such as UMTS- and iTV-banking 7% 12% Exhibit 23: Which distribution concepts do you value most highly in the quest to drive growth? Focus on alternative channels 0 10 20 30 40 50 70 60 % Mostly agree Fully agree We see very little support for renewed focus on alternative channels such as electronic channels or mobile sales forces. Source: Accenture 2005 32 5.4 Key capabilities to achieve organic growth Training to provide competent advice at points of sale Four-fifths of respondents identified train- ing in advisory capabilities as an impera- tive. This is consistent with their plans to improve cross-selling, and the emphasis on the branch as the preferred location for personal interaction. Improving capabilities such as data mining, sales force advi- sory and personal skills, and improved workows rank high on bankers agendas. Surprisingly, in Germany and the Nether- lands, about one-third of respondents do not see a strong need for training in adviso- ry capabilities. The profitability of German retail banking is low compared with banks in other European countries, and customers tend to cherry pick products from different banks. In view of this, German bankers may want to reconsider their position. Mining customer data to improve advisory capabilities More than two-thirds of respondents rec- ognize the need to collect customer data more systematically, and to improve internal workflow to enable growth. These items are interrelated. Database marketing will be a key factor in revealing customer insights and providing triggers for commer- cial actions. Dutch retail bank manager When interacting with customers, advisors should have as much customer information at their fingertips as possible. Data mining is not a new topic in banking. However, some 70 percent of respondents recognize the need to further improve capabilities in this area. This suggests that many past efforts have not worked properly. Workflow is also highly relevant because the back office must enable the advisor to offer the best products and product bundles. Respondents see less impact on sales by implementing central distribution guide- lines or by creating new incentive structures for sales personnel. In some markets, regu- lation may hinder the implementation of central distribution guidelines. In some cases, labor unions or workers councils may prevent the introduction of new in- centive structures. Radical changes in business operating models are not currently in vogue. Should certain tasks be handled in-house or outsourced? This question appears to be of less importance to respondents than in the past. The elements have not been in- spected in detail, nor have clear-cut poli- cies been formulated. When it comes to a willingness to rethink the value chain, German, Dutch and Swiss bankers show the greatest interest. In summary: Banks now envis- age retail sector growth com- ing from the provision of fairly (but not cheaply) priced mod- ular products, backed up by efcient service and advice, available to customers at revitalized branches. 19% 50% 38% Training of advisory capabilities is a must We need to collect customer data more systematically We need to improve the internal workflow We need to make a clear decision on what areas of the value chain we want to do in-house and what we need to outsource We need to implement a central distribution support and common guidelines for sales personnel Only the introduction of new incentives will increase sales in our branches 37% 42% 29% 26% 16% 27% 26% 12% 5 % Mostly agree Fully agree In their efforts to improve cross-selling, banks want to focus internally on improvements to advisory capabilities, data mining and workflow. Source: Accenture 2005 0 10 20 30 40 60 50 100 % 90 80 70 Exhibit 24: Which internal processes will you need to change to enable growth? 33 Statement/question We grow only in those markets with the greatest growth forecasts. We want to grow only in new areas to achieve income diversification. We grow in selected young, yet uncertain market segments to benefit from first- mover status. Growth expectations? How much will re- tail banking grow in general? In your home market, do you want to grow organically or via M&A? Foreign players will enter the market aggressively. Statement/question Our existing brand strength is our main asset. Lower prices for all products are the only way to increase demand. Low priced entry products help to win new customers. We need to enhance customer service in order to increase demand. Statement/question We find it important to segment according to wealth. We find it important to segment according to banking revenues generated from the customer. We need to push alliances with insurers to improve mutual sales. Internet banking will become the most important distribution channel.
Market forces and motives Banks with ROE above median show greater support for this maxim. Are they better at planning? focus a lot more on diversification. tend to be more confident in their ability to tap new markets than banks with low ROE. tend to be much more conservative/ realistic in their estimates for market growth. seem to rely more on their own strengths, opting for organic growth. Strengths, means and measures Banks with ROE above median are less convinced of their brand: Only 50 percent fully value their brand. strongly oppose low price products. surprisingly see more pressure to improve customer service. Distribution and segmentation Banks with ROE above median place much more importance on wealth as a criterion for segmentation than less profitable banks or do they have the wealthier customers? regard it as much more important to segment according to bank revenues. Is their success due to their revenue focus? see significantly more need for entering alliances with insurers. Banks with ROE below median are much more concerned about foreign players entering their domestic markets. Banks with ROE below median are more convinced of their own brand two-thirds highly value their brand. apparently half consider a low price strategy. Banks with ROE below median regard wealth less as a criterion for segmentation. evaluate segmentation by revenue as less important. see significantly less need for alliances with insurers. expect the web to become even more important in the future. Since the majority of our respondents in the primary research were from Austria, Switzerland, Germany and France, the compilation mainly reflects these coun- tries behavior. 5.5 Differentiated by success? Some significant differences are apparent in terms of return on equity (ROE). 33 34 Accentures qualitative research does indicate success strategies for banks wishing to achieve organic growth. The quantitative research and analysis carried out by E-Finance Lab shows how banks can expand profitably through simultaneous growth and diversifica- tion, with a strong focus on increasing spread. In addition, Accentures qualitative re- search has revealed that banks plan to focus on profitable organic growth, not on revenue growth per se: they want to strengthen their rela- tions with customers in order to in- crease cross-selling they intend to create products specifi- cally designed for particular customer groups they urgently want to improve their advisory and service capabilities they intend to refocus on delivering quality products and services instead of pursuing low price strategies they want to emphasize their branch networks, because they view face-to- face customer interactions as the best situation in which to sell more prod- ucts they want to improve the efficiency of branches by collecting and using customer data more systematically, by training and enhancing advisory capacity and by improving internal workflows From the discussions with bank execu- tives Accenture has come to the conclu- sion that each bank must follow its own path to profitable growth. Each institu- tion starts from a different position and has to build up the necessary missing strengths and capabilities at its own pace. Each institution can choose from a menu of typical organic growth pro- grams, selecting elements that their organization most urgently needs. 6 Linking our research with practical growth strategies 34 35 Enabling capabilities Key performance indicators Sales force effectiveness Multi- channel interactions Next generation branch Next generation contact center Next generation mobile and internet banking Insight- driven marketing and sales Strategic priorities Profitable organic growth Schematic of typical organic growth programs for a retail banks individual journey to differentiation and profitable growth Exhibit 25: The organic growth framework Source: Accenture 2005 In practice, to achieve sustained and profitable growth, integration of capa- bilities is necessary, including: Full integration of customer data comprising relationship potential with contact points and decision points across all channels and lines of business, to provide and share a 360 view of the customer. Integration of actionable customer insights with an effective, empowered sales force, to enable the transforma- tion of insights into profitable interac- tions. Integration of all channels, to provide an environment in which each cus- tomer segment can be served in a sat- isfying and profitable way. A success factor for bank branches will be an effective, empowered, well-trained sales force, able to transform actionable customer insights into positive, profit- able interactions. The technology evolu- tion will provide further opportunities to differentiate business models and antici- pate market and consumer trends. 36 It is instructive to look at how some of todays financial services leaders have used integration to drive profitable growth and deliver enhanced sharehold- er value. More and more, integration dis- tinguishes leaders from laggards. Across critical customer-focused key perfor- mance indicators, organic growth initia- tives can deliver significant results, visi- ble to the market. There are outstanding examples of high-performing banks organizations that have successfully identified their appropriate routes for organic growth. Thumbnails of four of them are given here. Wells Fargo a successful mass mar- ket provider Wells Fargo has chosen to be the finan- cial services provider par excellence in the mass market. Integrating an aggres- sive approach to new channel develop- ment, an innovative product strategy and an intense focus on sales force effectiveness, Wells Fargo has achieved remarkable growth even in tough market conditions. Aligned with the companys laser focus on cross-sell goals (the pres- ent target is eight products per custom- er), this integration enables the creation of deeper customer relationships and the creation of more shareholder value. Bankinter protable sales in every channel Bankinter is a leading bank in the Spanish market and a global leader in terms of innovative, profitable ap- proaches to managing customers. It has focused on aligning its people through- out the distribution network and en- abling them to leverage innovative tech- nology and customer insight to create value. Bankinter has achieved tight inte- gration across channels, allowing cus- tomer insights and interactions to be tightly linked to deliver rewarding cus- tomer transactions. This has optimized the companys ability to drive profitable sales in every channel. The integrated information allows the bank to closely monitor, and continuously adjust, sales activities. As a result, cross-sell rates are excellent: an average 5.7 products per customer. Simultaneously, Bankinter has been able to increase the number of cus- tomers, and significantly increase value per customer. 7 How banks grow protably lessons from some leaders 37 RAS customer data management excellence Although a market leader, RAS recog- nized that it could better serve its cus- tomers and generate more revenue by developing a better understanding of its customers needs and personalizing its marketing campaigns. RAS created a comprehensive CRM solution focusing on improving customer data manage- ment, customer analytics and marketing automation. Since deploying its CRM solution, RAS has seen the time it takes to respond to user data requests de- crease from weeks to hours. With up-to- date, comprehensive, online customer information, RAS employees are serving their customers better. Bank of Montreal right service at the right time in the right place Bank of Montreal is a highly diversified financial institution with operations throughout the Americas and a presence in Europe and East Asia. The bank has a broad portfolio of products and services. It is Canadas third largest bank and ranks in the top 10 in North America. Bank of Montreal developed customer solutions and consistent contact capa- bilities to its personal and commercial lines of business across face-to-face and direct banking channels. The solution in- tegrates customer insight and marketing capabilities and enables a holistic view of the customer relationship and the ability to share customer information enterprise-wide, providing the right ser- vice at the right time at the right place through the right channel. Lessons from these leaders prove that execution is the key to achieving organic growth while maximizing returns on investment. 38 The Lab closely investigated six markets to compare their results to the average of our 865 banks and looked at banks in major European markets with high spreads and focused growth strategies. Have they actively increased their market- to-book through additional market value added? Have they targeted improving their spread by diversification? E-Finance Lab measured organic growth in terms of the unweighted arithmetic mean of the annual change in book value of banks equity capital adjusted for M&A activities. France: top diversier with low spread French banks have managed to push their diversification at a yearly rate of just over 8 percent. Starting from a low base level in 1995 (21 percent), they have now reached a top position in Europe (39 per- cent in 2003). With a yearly 11 percent organic growth they have clearly sur- passed that of banks in Germany, which is the only country with a single-digit average growth rate (9 percent) during the period under review. Despite an ROE which yearly averaged 11 percent French banks had a very low average spread of less than 2 percent. This can be attributed mainly to the weak values from 1995 to 1999. Com- parison with other European countries ranks the French banks as the lowest with an average market-to-book of 0.7 for all years studied. Market capitaliza- tion of French banks was always below the book value of their capital stock. French banks are characterized by the consistent extension of the revenue basis, a high degree of achieved diversi- fication as well as organic growth in the mid-range of the countries compared. The overall view, moreover, displays middle-rate return on equity and spreads. Germany: bringing up the rear weak growth and lowest spread With an annual growth rate below 8 per- cent, diversification among banks in Germany corresponds approximately to rates in Italy and France. However, there is a decisive difference. Even after eight years of continued growth, average diver- sification has reached a meager 26 per- cent. Only in the UK is diversification simi- larly low nearly unchanged since 1995. Diversification figures in the other European countries we studied range from above 30 percent up to the frontrunner, France, achieving about 39 percent. Organic growth among German banks averaged 9 percent per annum the lowest rate of all countries. In 2003, the growth index did not score more than 200 percentage points. German banks bring up the rear when it comes to the average spreads (-2 per- cent). Not exactly splendid up to 2001, the years 2002 and 2003 reduced the spread to minimum values (-15 percent and -8 percent respectively). Market-to-book sank to approximately 1 during the last three examined years, a reduction of almost half since 2000. In the European comparison, organic growth was weakest, spread lowest, and diversification excepting the UK fee- blest among the German banks. 8 Appendix: additional empirical results by country France: Organic growth, diversification & ROE Years 19952003 % 50 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 %
d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n Exhibit 2627 39 Switzerland: decline in diversication from the highest level Among the six countries examined, diversification declined only in Switzer- land. It dropped by approximately 4 per- centage points to 38 percent in the period under review. Organic growth, by contrast, at an annual 13 percent in Swiss banks, was higher than that of German and French banks. For the period under examination, the Swiss ROE aver- aged just above 10 percent, the lowest average among the six countries. This is mainly attributable to the decline in ROE in 2001 and the even stronger decline in 2002. Average spread in Switzerland was near breakeven only Germany and Italy lagged behind Swiss banks. For the final year under examination the Swiss market-to-book amounted to about 1, equaling the long-term average. UK: strong growth at a constant level of diversication The results for the UK differ from other countries for the period under review. Diversification is between 20 and 24 per- cent and steady at a yearly growth rate of 1 percent. Organic growth among British banks, by contrast, reached 13 percent per annum and was stronger than in Italy or Spain; in 2003 they even achieved an index value higher than Spains. With an average of 15 percent, ROE was at a high level during these years, but it has been declining from 18 percent down to 12 percent since 1996. Recently, this also affected spread, which nevertheless averaged 5 percent. The British banks attained an average market-to-book of approximately 2, and up to 2.5 at its peak in the years under review. It never fell below 1.5. British bank shares thus always accounted for 150 percent of their face value. The other countries could never main- tain this value with their minimal values between 0.6 and 1.1.
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 I n d e x
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d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n ROE Diversification Organic growth Source: E-Finance Lab, University of Frankfurt 2005 Years 19952003 % UK: Organic growth, diversification & ROE % Switzerland: Organic growth, diversification & ROE Exhibit 2829 40 Spain: growth and diversication with high spread During the nine years to 2003, Spanish banks have diversified their revenue basis from 14 percent to 31 percent. Diversification was accompanied by or- ganic growth of the banks equity bases at an average 12 percent per annum. In these years, ROE ranged from 14 percent to 19 percent, with an average of 16 per- cent and with a general downward trend. The banks spread averaged below 6 percent. With an average of 2.1, Spanish banks lie ahead of the other European countries with regard to their market-to-book. Italy: low spread in spite of diversi- cation and growth In much the same way as their Spanish counterparts, Italian banks have gained their revenues from a broadening range of sources during the period under re- view. Diversification has increased from 20 percent to nearly 36 percent. Organic growth rose to an average of 11 percent per annum, only one per- centage point below Spain. ROE, howev- er, averaged around 13 percent, making Italian banks less profitable than Spanish banks. This of course also adversely af- fected spread, the negative value of which (- 1 percent) suggests equity burn. According to our model, this would also make an impact on the market-to-book. And indeed, market-to-book has de- clined since 2000 to 1.4 with an average across all years of 1.6. In summary, there is no simple, single relationship between growth and market value For all countries surveyed we statistically compiled the input output variables: for instance, the development of organic growth, diversification and spread as the determinants for the output variable market-to-book. Spread and market-to-book tend to go hand-in-hand in the UK and in Spain. In Switzerland there are conflicting find- ings of low spread, high organic growth and poor market-to-book. Ultimately, this confirms our analytical approach: it is necessary to analyze the influence of our variables simultaneously as we did in our empiric research. The concurrent development of profit- ability and market value in the individual countries is not uniform. 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 I n d e x
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d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n Spain: Organic growth, diversification & ROE Years 19952003 Italy: Organic growth, diversification & ROE Years 19952003 ROE Diversification Organic growth Source: E-Finance Lab, University of Frankfurt 2005 Exhibit 3031 41 % -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 4.9% 5.5% -1.3% -2.0% 1.6 % 0.2% Spain United Kingdom Italy Germany France Switzerland Exhibit 32b: Spread average, 19952003 Exhibit 32a: Average market-to-book by country, 1996 and 2003 Exhibit 32c: Diversification by country measured by inverse Herfindahl index, 1995 and 2003 Exhibit 32d: CAGR of mean annual growth rates of book equity, 19952003 Spain United Kingdom Italy Germany France Switzerland Spain United Kingdom Italy Germany France Switzerland 1995 2003 % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 % 25 20 15 10 5 0 12% 13% 11% 9% 11% 13% A mere descriptive statistical review cannot substitute our analytical multivariate analysis of the simultaneous influence of growth and diversification on market-to-book. Source: E-Finance Lab, University of Frankfurt 2005 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Spain United Kingdom Italy Germany France Switzerland 1996 (Germany 1997) 2003 1.1 2.1 1.5 1.9 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 42 Accenture Financial Services
Thomas Gith Partner Financial Services, Accenture thomas.gith@accenture.com Accenture Campus Kronberg 1 D 61476 Kronberg Tel.: +49 6173 94 99 Fax: +49 6173 94 98 Eric Veron Partner Financial Services, Accenture eric.veron@accenture.com Accenture 118 Avenue de France F 75013 Paris Tel.: +33 1 53 23 55 55 Fax: +33 1 53 23 53 23 Thomas Sontheimer Partner Financial Services, Accenture thomas.sontheimer@accenture.com Accenture Fraumnsterstrasse 16 CH 8001 Zrich Tel.: +41 44 21 99 889 Fax: +41 44 21 98 889 9 Contacts Accenture Accenture is a global management con- sulting, technology services and out- sourcing company. Committed to deliv- ering innovation, Accenture collaborates with its clients to help them become high-performance businesses and gov- ernments. With deep industry and busi- ness process expertise, broad global resources and a proven track record, Accenture can mobilize the right people, skills and technologies to help clients im- prove their performance. With more than 115,000 people in 48 countries, the com- pany generated net revenues of US$13.67 billion for the fiscal year ended Aug. 31, 2004. www.accenture.com E-Finance Lab The E-Finance Lab is an industry- academic partnership between Frankfurt and Darmstadt Universities and partners Accenture, Deutsche Bank, FinanzIT, IBM, Microsoft, Postbank, Siemens, T-Systems, DAB bank and IS.Teledata located at J. W. Goethe University, Frankfurt. The goal of the E-Finance Lab is to jointly develop scientific yet managerial methods for re- arranging the business processes of the financial services industry. www.efinancelab.de Accenture Marketing Contact Micaela Feldmann micaela.feldmann@accenture.com Accenture Campus Kronberg 1 D 61476 Kronberg Tel.: +49 6173 94 - 66330 Fax: +49 6173 94 - 46330 Our special thanks to the University of Frankfurts E-Finance Lab for complementing Accentures qualitative research with their own empirical analysis and modeling, detailed in Looking back: did banks grow suc- cessfully?. E-Finance Lab Contact
Prof. Dr. Andreas Hackethal hackethal@finance.uni-frankfurt.de E-Finance Lab Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitt Mertonstrasse 17 D 60325 Frankfurt am Main Tel.: +49 69 79 82 82 69 43 44 Copyright 2005 Accenture All rights reserved. Accenture, its logo, and High Performance Delivered are trademarks of Accenture. September 2005