Idaho Power Companys Cloud Seeding Program

Shaun Parkinson, PhD, PE

Presentation Overview
What is cloud seeding? How we know cloud seeding works Perceptions IPCs cloud seeding program
Payette Upper Snake

Benefits
Increased Runoff Runoff Increased Generation

What is cloud seeding?

The term cloud seeding has been used to describe:
Fog suppression (airports) Hail suppression (reduce crop and property damage) Rainfall enhancement (water supply augmentation) Snowpack enhancement (snowpack augmentation)

Our focus is snowpack enhancement First, some overview of precipitation process

Precipitation
A given column of air has a limited amount of water it can hold For precipitation to occur, the air column must be at or near (i.e. relative humidity y 100%) ) saturation ( Relative humidity is a function of temperature (warm air can hold more water vapor than cold air) However, saturation alone does not lead to precipitation Ice nuclei are required for water droplets to convert to ice crystals Ice nuclei are found naturally in the atmosphere, atmosphere but may be limited relative to available water provide an opportunity. pp y This limitation can p

Precipitation Precipitation get a little more? Can we g

Cloud Seeding
The key y is super p cooled liquid q water Water that is in a liquid state, state but below freezing.

Cloud Seeding
Cloud seeding provides mother nature with ice nuclei But, it is only effective when ice nuclei are limiting and nature is performing p g the other required q precipitation p p p processes
cloud seeding doesnt create clouds to seed it will not cure a drought!

Effectiveness depends on:

temperatures, available water in the atmosphere, ice nuclei properties, cloud droplet and natural ice distributions

Several agents can be used as ice nuclei, with silver iodide (AgI) being the most common used in commercial cloud seeding. seeding

Cloud Seeding g Programs - WMA

Cloud Seeding
Wintertime Orographic

Silver Iodide Distribution

In commercial programs, programs silver iodide is burned to release silver iodide particles (ice nuclei) of an appropriate size to the atmosphere. Ground generators - Acetone silver iodide solution is burned in a propane flame. Aircraft - silver sil er iodide is incorporated into a flare, flare or solution sol tion is burned.

Presentation Overview
What is cloud seeding? How we know cloud seeding works Perceptions IPCs cloud seeding program
Payette Upper Snake

Benefits
Increased Runoff Runoff Increased Generation Water Temperature Benefits

Cloud Seeding
Lots of evidence that it works in laboratory and controlled conditions. gq question how do we know it p puts snow on the g ground? The big Plume tracing UT pulsed seeding experiment Trace chemistry (IPCs dual tracer) Aircraft data collection

UT Pulsed Seeding Experiment

UT Pulsed Seeding Experiment Before Seeding

Seeding

After Seeding

IPC s Dual Tracer IPCs Assessment

Approach IPC needed to demonstrate that project can effectively put snow in target area, and that seeding increases snowpack as expected. Independent contractors performed assessment Co-located seeding and tracer generators
Release seeding and tracer aerosols at same rate

Silver iodide (AgI) released from both ground and aircraft generators. Nucleating N l ti particles ti l (silver ( il iodide) i did ) incorporated i t d into i t snowpack k through either ice nucleating (seeding) process or scavenging Non-nucleating particles (inert tracers) incorporated in snowpack through scavenging process only.

Co-located Generators

Ice Nucleation vs. vs Scavenging

Silver Iodide nano nano-particles particles actively cause ice crystal formation (seeding)

Indium oxide nano-particles are passively p y incorporated p into snow crystals (scavenged).

IPC s Dual Tracer IPCs Assessment

Approach (cont (cont.) ) Following seeding, sample snowpack for evaluation of trace levels p density y of silver, indium, and cesium as well as snowpack Ratio of silver to tracer (ex. Indium) in the snow pack gives an indication of how much silver deposited by ice nucleating vs. sca enging processes. scavenging processes

Snow Sampling and Ground Gro nd Generator Sites

Control Sites
OT1 NB SP MC WH B2 B3 B1 T1 MZ

Ground Generators

T4

2003-2004 Sites 2004-2005 Sites

BC T5 D2 D1

T3

T2 NGV CC MM Low

KR

BM

New sites were sampled in 2004 -2005 due to access problems in 20032004. 2004

Sampling Snow Pack

Snow samples collected using ultra-trace metal clean techniques h i and d acid id cleaned l d equipment. i

Analytical Methods
Samples acidified with ultra-pure nitric i i acid id in i class l 100 clean l room. Analysis by High Resolution Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. Detection limits of ~ 300 parts per quadrillion for silver
300 / 1,000,000,000,000,000 (1015)

Think of it as a single drop of water in a cube 368m on a side or in a sports arena like the Idaho Center (Nampa, ID), or 5 minutes out of 31.7 million years.

Targeting g g from Chemistry Data

Targeting of the seeding operations i was assessed db by integrating the silver found in the snow over a given storm period to estimate the total amount of silver deposited during the storm.
Control site
MC

March 5 and 6, 2004 Ground-generator Site

BC

= silver deposited 100 x 10 -12 g (ppt)

NG V MM KR BM

December 6 through 9, 2004

MC

= silver 100 g released

BC

NG V CM

MM

KR

BM

Example Targeting Maps for the March 2004 and December 2004 storm periods

Targeting Results
The amount of silver deposited downwind of active ground generators was much greater than that found at the control sites. g g was effective. Silver distributions show that targeting Indium concentrations were generally very low
Silver not from scavenging

Evidence for targeting by aircraft was found in the target area The project layout and operations can effectively hit the target area with both ground generators and aircraft aircraft. Determining precipitation increases

Snow Pack Density

Unseeded snow

Seeded snow

Example 2D Snow Pack Density Profiles

I. II.

Density Control Site

Example 2D Snow Pack Silver Profiles

I. II.

Control Site

Silver Parts per trillion

Trace Chemistry Interpretation

Trace Chemistry Snow Pack Density 13% increase in integrated water mass (SWE).

2004 Cloud Physics

Two planes seeding and research aircraft. Research aircraft fitted with a number of probes to measure parameters important to precipitation

2004 Cloud Physics

2.0 1.5 10 1.0 0.5 400 2DC C Total Ice Concentration (#/l) 300 200 100 Total Accepted Conc. ShadowOr Conc. LWC FSSP LWC 1.0 05 0.5 0.0 800 600 400 200 0 300 Mean (um) MVD (um) 200 100 0 10 Dewpoint Temperature Dewpoint (oC) 5 0 -5 -10 6 MixRatio SatVap 5 4 3 2 Saturation Vapo or Pressure (mb) Shad dowOr Crystal Conc centration (#/l) FSSP LW WC (gm-3) 3 DMT LWC C (g/m )

Mean Ice Crystal Size (um)

300 200 100 10

o Temperature ( C)

5 0 -5 -10 8

Mixing Ratio (g/ /kg)

6 4

4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 07:10:00

Altitude (m)

1500

Altitude (m) Vertical Velocity

1000 500 0 -500

07:20:00

07:30:00

07:40:00

Time (GMT)

Vertical Velocity (m/s)

Median Ice Crystal Size (um)

Cloud physics data collected just prior to the onset of airborne seeding. In particular, note the second and third frames, and compare them to the following diagram.

2004 Cloud Physics

1.0 0.8 0.6 04 0.4 0.2 400 08:15:00 300 200 100 08:25:00 Total Accepted Conc. ShadowOr Conc. 08:35:00 0.0 800 08:45:00 600 400 200 0 300 Mean (um) MVD (um) 200 100 0 10 Dewpoint Temperature Dewpoint (oC) 5 0 -5 -10 6 MixRatio SatVap 5 4 3 2 Saturation Vapo or Pressure (mb) FSSP LWC DMT LWC 1.0 0.5 FSSP L LWC (gm-3) 3 DMT LW WC (g/m )

Mean Ice Crystal Size (um)

300 200 100 10

The same data as in the previous figure, figure but shortly after the initiation of airborne seeding. Note that the total ice mass increases dramatically about 20 minutes after the onset of seeding while at the same time, time the mean ice crystal size decreases. Indicative of conversion of SLW into new ice crystals that can then grow into snowflakes.

2DC Total Ice Concentration (#/l)

o Temperature ( C)

5 0 -5 -10 8

Mixing Ratio (g/ /kg)

6 4

Altitude e (m)

3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 08:15:00

08:25:00

Altitude (m) Vertical Velocity

1500 1000 500 0 -500 08:45:00

08:35:00

Time (GMT)

Vertical Velo ocity (m/s)

4000

Median Ice Crystal Size (um)

Sha adowOr Crystal Con ncentration (#/l)

Trace Chemistry Summary

Snowpack conditions during assessment were 74% and 65% of normal (limited seeding opportunities). p of the snow p pack, water increases could not be Due to compaction estimated for the 2003-2004 season. During 2004-2005, DRI concluded cloud seeding revealed an o erall average overall a erage increase of 7%. 7% Individual Indi id al storm events e ents ranged between 7% and 35% increases. Under favorable conditions, , greater g increases may y be obtained through longer and more frequent seeding periods. Moving to flares significantly increases seeding potential from the aircraft. i ft

Presentation Overview
What is cloud seeding? How we know cloud seeding works Perceptions IPCs cloud seeding program
Payette Upper Snake

Benefits
Increased Runoff Runoff Increased Generation Water Temperature Benefits

Downwind Effects
Research on the subject has shown there are neutral or positive effects (more precipitation) from a well run program poorly y run p program g has the p potential to reduce precipitation p p Ap To put quantities into context
Nature will condense about 20% of the water vapor as moist air as rises over a mountain barrier (the remaining 80% remains uncondensed). uncondensed) Winter storms are typically about 30% efficient, meaning 30% of the 20%, or 6% of the total, reaches the ground. If cloud l d seeding di increases i precipitation i it ti 15%, 15% that th t amounts t to t 15% of f the th 6%, or 0.9% of the total water vapor is the additional amount cloud seeding pulls from the atmosphere.

Silver Toxicity
The WMA has issued a statement on toxicity of silver originating from cloud seeding http://weathermodification.org/AGI_toxicity.pdf In summary, The published scientific literature clearly shows no environmentally i t ll h harmful f l effects ff t arising i i from f cloud l d seeding di with ith silver iodide aerosols have been observed; nor would they be expected to occur. Based on this work, the WMA finds that silver iodide is environmentally safe as it is currently being dispensed during cloud seeding programs.

IDEQ Review
IDEQ reviewed cloud seeding w.r.t. w r t water and air quality quality. Water quality - it is unlikely that cloud seeding will cause a g area or pose p a detectable increase in silver concentrations in target chronic effect to sensitive aquatic organisms. Air quality permit not needed based on screening thresholds. http://www.idwr.idaho.gov/waterboard/WaterPlanning/CAMP/ES PA/WorkingGroups/PDF/WM//2010/02-09-10 PA/WorkingGroups/PDF/WM//2010/02 09 10_MtgPresent.pdf MtgPresent pdf

Presentation Overview
What is cloud seeding? How we know cloud seeding works Perceptions IPCs cloud seeding program
Payette Upper Snake

Benefits
Increased Runoff Runoff Increased Generation Water Temperature Benefits

Idaho Power Powers s History with Cloud Seeding

At the request of shareholders began investigating cloud seeding in 1993 Literature review 1993 and 1994 Climatology study 1994-95 Contracted operational program in 1996-97 1996 97 Planned to perform internal program in 1997-98
canceled do to no mechanism to recover project expenses and share benefits

Reinstated in Feb 2003. 2003 Operational including assessment in fall of 2003 Completed second year of assessment and third year of operations in May 2005. In 2008 worked with E Idaho Counties and HCRC&D to enhance their program
In 2008 installed 3 remote generators, provided meteorological data and operations guidance In 2009 installed 6 additional remote generators

Effective Program Includes

Knowledge of:
Storm timing prepare for operations Water content is the storm conducive to seed? Temperature profile Wind speed and direction
The wrong combination of temperature and water content can easily lead to educed p precipitation. ec p tat o . reduced Winds effect targeting

Flexibility ability to seed a range of conditions Aircraft i f safety f

Flying a plane in storm conditions pilot needs guidance regarding severe ice, lightning, etc.

Suspension Criteria

Idaho Power Powers s Cloud Seeding Projects

Payette Upper Snake
in cooperation with E. Idaho - HCRC&D

Rawinsonde
Temperature Relative Humidity Pressure Wind Direction Wind Speed Up to 60,000

Radiometrics M3000A
Microwave Radiometer Radiometers measure the power radiated by the atmosphere at different wave lengths. They are passive, receive receive-only only instruments, meaning they emit no radiation themselves. The wave length of the radiation identifies the source of the emission resulting in a atmospheric profile: Temperature Relative Humidity Liquid Water

IPCs

Radiometer Data
Real time atmospheric profiling by elevation:
Temperature Relative Humidity Liquid Water Vapor Density

Supercooled liquid water

Image courtesy of Radiometrics

Generator Types

Manual Cloud g Generator Seeding IPC Remote Cloud Seeding Generator

New Generators
Reliability Less Maintenance Safety Easier to deploy Cheaper to build
Ex. Computer

7 units in Payette

Aircraft Seeding

Presentation Overview
What is cloud seeding? How we know cloud seeding works Perceptions IPCs cloud seeding program
Payette Upper Snake

Benefits
Increased Runoff Runoff Increased Generation Water Temperature Benefits

Target Control
Payette
Target vs. Control Cumulative Precipitation 1987-2002 1987 2002 Hi Historical t i lR Relationship l ti hi and d 2003 2003-2009 2009 Ob Observed d
58.0

53.0 Pooled target site cu P umulative precipitatio on (in.) - Oct. 15 - A Apr. 15

48.0

2006 15% ABOVE EXPECTED

y = 1.0893x - 4.2385 R = 0.9640

43.0

38 0 38.0

33.0

200710% ABOVE 2004 5% ABOVE EXPECTED

200816 % ABOVE 2003 EXPECTED 11% ABOVE EXPECTED 2009 15% ABOVE EXPECTED

28 0 28.0

2005 26% ABOVE EXPECTED

23.0

18.0 18.0 23.0 28.0 33.0 38.0 43.0 48.0 53.0 58.0

Pooled control site cumulative precipitation (in.) - Oct. 15-Apr. 15

Operations Summary
Payette

Water W t WY% % Silver Sil Iodide I did (grams) ( ) H Hours Year Norm TC** Total Air Ground Air Ground
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 93% 74% 65% 136% 56% 105%
****

Status
startup(FebApril) assessment t assessment operational operational operational operational

16 5 7 15 10 16
***

33558 21485 27301 113173 106082 61147

23270 2803 11122 97710 76980 38740

10288 18682 16179 15463 29102 22407

15.4 11 9 11.9 50.5 48.5 51.3 29.4 17.1

515 930 810 768 1351 1123 1208

2009 107% 15 50274 26110 24164 *UnregulatedPayette FlowcalculatedatHorseshoe Bend **TC=TargetControl ***DRITrace chemistryaverage benefit ****EstimatedJuly2009runoff

Benefit Estimation
Payette

IPC has used 3 approaches to assess benefits since DRI DRIs s assessment:
1. 2. 3 3. USBR Run-off regression equations Streamflow comparison Watershed modeling using NWS forecasting model

USBR Regression
USBR Equations use precipitation and SWE as input to predict runoff at specific locations. g control analysis y indicates p precipitation p increases ranging g g Target from 5% to 16% (average over 7 years of 12%). Assuming a precipitation increase of 10% from cloud seeding res lts in an average results a erage of approximately appro imatel 120 KAF of additional April July runoff at Horseshoe Bend.

Run-off Comparison
After running the program for a number of years, a comparison of streamflows was possible. By comparing streamflows, streamflows no analysis or assumptions regarding precipitation increases are necessary. Relative to the NF Payette, Payette streamflows in the SF Payette have increased an average of 160 KAF per year.
PRELIMINARY

Run-off Comparison

Streamflow Modeling
NWS River Forecast Model
Additional runoff estimated using IPC IPCs s NWS river forecast model. Model uses mean aerial temperature and precipitation (MAT & MAP) by elevation Two scenarioswith and without cloud seeding Without seeding adjusted MAP down by amounts indicated by target-control analysis (observed data includes seeding) With seeding used MAP based on observed data Streamflow increase nearly 200 KAF / year

Cost: $4 $4.25 25 - $7.00/AF $7 00/AF

R noff Potential Runoff

Using IPCs NWSRFS: Assumes 10% winter precipitation increase (Oct Mar) Local unregulated flows Average increase in runoff o er period 49 to 09 over DRAFT Results

Upper Snake Opportunities

Currently working with HCRC&D and Counties to locate additional remote generators. g new sites as well as p potentially y replacing p g some manual Evaluating generators. Recent local interest in Salt and Grays drainages. Western Wyoming RC&D cloud seeding meeting scheduled for May 5.

Questions?