Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Kaushambi Ghosh
Manish Madhukar
Mohit Almal
Pankaj Agarwal
Agenda
Subprime
•Traditional Model Vs Subprime Model
•Players in the Game
Bubble
•Housing Bubble
Why it burst?
Global Crisis
Impact
Events
Indian story
Bailouts
What Next?
Subprime
Traditional Model Vs Subprime
Model
Players in the GAME
Players
Player 1: Fed
-- Fed kept the interest rate low during much of 1990s
and particularly 2001-2005 (low oil prices, and low
inflation prompted the policy), fueling the market
-- During the 2001-2005, FFR was in the 1% to 3%
range, and mostly in the 1% range
-- Fed encouraged more risky ARM lending
(Greenspan)
Player 2: Mortgage Salespersons
-- Worked on commission based on the number of
arms successfully twisted
Contd..
Player 3: Primary Lenders
-- No incentives for judicious lending
Banks no longer needed to hold on to the mortgage,
as use of mortgage-backed securities made risk
taking more appealing
Securitization practices
Speculation
Contd..
Inaccurate credit ratings
Government policies
Step 5 - These borrowers were no longer able/willing to pay high price for a house
that was declining in value
Step 6 – Security/Guarantee being the house being bought , this increased the
supply of houses for sale while lowering the demand, thereby lowering prices
even further and setting off a vicious cycle
Ripple Effect-Suck Everything
The housing bubble
Banks go belly-up
HSBC 27.4
15000
10000
5000 17th Jan' 2008
25th Nov' 2008
0
Indices
List of events
Date Events
16th September Reserve Primary Fund “breaks the buck” U.S. government seizes
control of AIG in $85B bailout
18th September Treasury Secretary Paulson announces bailout plan
900
800
700
600
500
Expon. (Series1)
400
300
200
100
0
savings and loan crisis(1986- Banking crisis(1990-99) Banking Crisis(98-99) Subprime crisis(2007-present)
95)
IMF raises the estimated loss
amount to 1.4 trillion dollars
Country wise Action
United kingdom
Has lined up a $850-billion rescue plan, May nationalise Royal Bank of Scotland
Will recapitalise banks by up to $88 billion. Abbey, Barclays, HSBC, Llyods, Standard
Chartered, HBOS and Nationwide Building Society can draw from an aggregate of $44
billion to boost their Tier 1 capital
The government will guarantee $439 billion worth of short-and-medium term debt
Alarm: The total liabilities of Barclays of £1,300 billion (leverage ratio of over 60),
surpass Britain's GDP
Contd..
Belgium
The government took partial control of the struggling Fortis Bank
Alarm: Fortis Bank's liabilities are several times larger than the GDP of Belgium
(leverage ratio of 33)
Iceland
The government has nationalised three of Iceland's biggest banks
Germany
Has organised a credit lifeline of euros 35 billion for blue-chip commercial real estate
lender Hypo Real Estate Holding
Alarm: The total liabilities of Deutsche Bank (leveraging ratio of over 50) amount to
2,000-billion euro, which is more than 80 per cent of the GDP of Germany
Contd..
Singapore
Eased monetary policy for the first time since 2003 after sinking into its first
recession in six years, hit by the meltdown in financial markets
The government revised its 2008 growth forecast to around 3 per cent from an
earlier estimate of 4 to 5
Italy
UniCredit Bank has announced plans to raise its capital ratio by spinning of
property assets
Ireland
Has guaranteed all bank deposits
Contd..
Spain
Will spend 50 billion Euros ($68 billion) to buy bank assets, almost a third of the
proposed 2009 central government budget
Japan
Yamato Life Insurance failed with $2.7 billion in debt
Alarm: Real estate companies are folding up, forcing regional banks to
raise reserves against bad loans
Indian Story
Impact of Subprime Crisis in India
No direct impact:
Structured finance undeveloped
No deleveraging
Result:
Capital influx, currency appreciation, stock market
boom
Impact on India-Second Round
The second round effect of Sub Prime + spike in oil prices
was devastating for Asian countries, including India
Soudi Arabia
The Devastating effect
Brazil
M…
U.K.
Germany
South Korea
China
India
Thailand
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
January 2007
February 2007
Sensex Close
August 2007
Contd..
September 2007
October 2007
November 2007
December 2007
FII Equity $M
January 2008
February 2008
March 2008
April 2008
May 2008
June 2008
July 2008
August 2008
0.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
5000.00
6000.00
7000.00
-4000.00
-3000.00
-2000.00
-1000.00
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
January 2007
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
May 2007
Contd..
August 2007
September 2007
October 2007
November 2007
December 2007
(RBI)
January 2008
February 2008
March 2008
April 2008
May 2008
June 2008
July 1 2008
August 1 2008
September 10 2008
Emerging economies adversely
impacted by demand destruction in
‘global consumer of the last resort’:
US major trading partner for India
(15% of exports), Brazil and China
(20% of exports)
Can India and China rescue the world?