Composition

Introduction (Who? What? How? Why?) -> MAPS (model,steps), Delphi, process 3-4min Discussion : Importance of future anticipation for companies? Usefulness of models and of MAPS The Process of implementing MAPS (workshops,etc.) Aspect of cultural differentiation Improving the workshops (see Lessons Learned ) The Envisoning Team Conclusion Points of agreement Controversial Points ca. 20 min

Pro Arguments:
o Future anticipation essential for the survival of the company o Risks if not : petrification, product obsolescence, missing market opportunities, loosing customers o Models help reduce complexity o MAPS organizes the brainstorming process with the megatrend orientation o Cultural differientiation is necessary for a multinational corporation, since different markets distinguished by very different cultures o Management structures to adapt o Envisioning team to ensure consistency and avoid biased ideas

Contra Arguments:
Importance of predicting the future: The future is extremely complex and one has to bear in mind that one deals with probabilities, which the authors fail to do. Predicting the future to be able to develop unique products targeting the identified future needs is overrated. Many companies are successful without major innovations or unique products (Pepsi, Burger King, every Italian restaurant in the world) Importance of models like MAPS : MAPS lures into a false sense of security regarding future business opportunities with a pseudo-scientific approach. The model is extremely selective and doesnt

account for the possibility that multiple trends combined may give rise to a new business opportunity. MAPS reduces complexity but the authors do not mention that fact and give no warning about its consequences. MAPS is common sense packed into a nice looking model, no innovation what so ever! There is no critical discussion of the model in the article and no statistical analysis of whether companies using MAPS are more successful than those who dont. They produce no proof that MAPS has any economical benefit. Importance of cultural and regional distinction: Creating cultural areas fosters stereotypes and gives no account to the globalized world. Generalising the needs or views of a group of people because of their geographical location can be misleading. The generalisation by regional provenance may be useful in one area but not in another, where age or social status may be more important.