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COMPANY INSIGHT TTKPT IN EQUITY
CONSUMER Recommendation
Mcap (bn): 6M ADV (mn): CMP: TP (12 mths): Upside (%): `40/US$650mn `79/US$1.3 ` 3,490 ` 3,650 5
Flags
Accounting: Predictability: Earnings Momentum: GREEN AMBER AMBER
Catalyst Recovery in Tamil Nadu Favourable base effect 1QFY15 onwards Performance (%)
23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000
May-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Mar-13 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
Sensex
TTK
Analyst Details
Rakshit Ranjan, CFA Tel: +91 22 3043 3201 rakshitranjan@ambitcapital.com Shariq Merchant Tel: +91 22 3043 3246 shariqmerchant@ambitcapital.com
TTK Prestige
base
effect
for
As shown in the exhibit below, induction cooktop sales as a proportion of overall revenues for TTK Prestige was 13-14% during FY12, 1HFY13 and 9MFY14. However, in September 2012, the Government announced a six cylinder cap on the annual consumption of subsidised gas-cylinders in every household. This led to a surge in the sales of induction cooktops for all players including TTK Prestige (~85% YoY growth in 3QFY13). However, once the cap was revised upwards from six cylinders to nine cylinders in January 2013, the growth of induction cooktop market moderated to normal levels by March 2013. Consequently, TTK Prestige saw the proportion of its overall revenues from induction cooktop sales rise to 23% in 3QFY14 and 20% in 4QFY13 (see the exhibit below). Moreover, all cooktop players in the market, including TTK Prestige, were running a promotion of induction-friendly pressure cookers and cookware bundled with each induction cooktop. This led to an amplified impact of the six-cylinder cap being felt on TTK Prestiges revenues including the pressure cookers and cookware segments (see bundled products in the table below).
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TTK Prestige
Consequently, the underlying segment-wise performance of TTK Prestige during 3QFY14 includes the following: Appliances excluding induction cooktops reported a revenue growth of ~13% YoY during 3QFY14. This includes strong growth particularly from gas-stoves (37% YoY growth) and mixer-grinders (35% YoY growth). Pressure cookers and cookware segments, excluding sales generated from products bundled with induction cooktop promotions, reported a revenue growth of 2% YoY during 3QFY14. Overall revenues, excluding those related to induction cooktops and bundled products, reported a 7% YoY growth for TTK Prestige during the quarter.
We continue to expect the non-south regions to report over 20% revenue CAGR for TTK Prestige driven by a combination of: (a) expansion of the dealer network driven
January 20, 2014 Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. Page 3
TTK Prestige by improvements in the size and quality of the on-ground sales team; (b) the firms focus on creating a strong brand recall for Prestige through adverts on various media channels; and (c) wider product portfolio and after-sales service which allows TTK to leverage on the recall of its pressure cookers portfolio to expand other product categories in these regions. However, revival of growth in the southern states depends on the following factors: Andhra Pradesh (8-10% of overall revenues): With the political parties calling for a shutdown of the state on several occasions over the past four months, the retail distribution channel in the state has had disruptions on 10-20 days each during October and November 2013. Until these disruptions continue, revenue growth for all the segments of consumption, including for TTK Prestige, from Andhra Pradesh will be a challenge. Tamil Nadu (22-25% of overall revenues): The duration of power cuts across Tamil Nadu increased substantially in 2HFY13. As a result, not only was the sale of electrical appliances affected adversely for TTK Prestige, several small-scale industries and other manufacturing capacities exited the state over the past 18 months. This led to a substantial drop in the overall discretionary consumption spend across the state.
Although there remains uncertainty around the timing of reversal of these statespecific macro-headwinds, we expect: (a) distribution disruptions in Andhra Pradesh to end over the next six months given the upcoming elections; and (b) power situation in Tamil Nadu to improve in 2HFY15 given the ongoing initiatives taken by the Government to address the power deficit issue.
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TTK Prestige near term, due to a combination of: (a) wide and innovative product portfolio; (b) strong distribution network; and (c) scale advantages which allow it to invest incrementally in building a strong brand recall.
Revenue growth over next the six months to be supported by new product launches and exports expansion
Based on our channel checks and discussions with the management team, we expect a revival in earnings growth momentum over the next six months which would be supported by: Complete roll-out of hard-anodised (HA) cookware: Following the commissioning of its Vadodara plant in 3QFY14, we expect a complete rollout of its hard-anodised range of cookware across India over the next few months. Our channel checks suggest a strong demand for these products due to: (a) longer life (8-10 years) of these products as compared to non-stick cookware where the TEFLON coating tends to come off in less than three years especially if not maintained properly; and (b) superior aesthetics and design as compared to nonstick cookware, a characteristic already proven in the market through the success of Futuras (Hawkins) limited range of HA cookware and Prestiges range of HA pressure cookers. Launch of water-purifiers: The management has confirmed that after having tied up with the Swiss firm, Vestergaard Frandsen, last year, the firm intends to launch its water-purifier range of products in April 2014. Although this is a highly competitive segment of products, we expect Prestige to leverage effectively on its brand, distribution network, and product innovation to make at least some headway into this market through its product launch. Expansion of the exports franchise: Based on our discussions with the management team, export revenues for TTK Prestige are likely to report strong growth in the future due to a combination of: (a) redesign of its microwave safe pressure cookers underway in collaboration with the OXO Group, following which revival of its exports through Meyer into Japan and other European countries is likely to resume; and (b) export of attractively designed cookware products manufactured by the newly commissioned Gujarat plant.
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TTK Prestige
Have not factored in any improvement in working 38 capital which has been under pressure as the company 60 is expanding into the north, leading to higher inventory days. 62 Company should be debt-free in FY14, as new money (0.2) raised will be used to repay debt.
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TTK Prestige
Valuation fairly valued currently; better entry points over the next three months
As explained below, our DCF models for the two divisions (kitchenware and property development) generate a total value of `3,650/share, 5% higher than the current market price. The stock is currently trading at 26.0x FY15 EPS, broadly in line with our implied one-year forward P/E multiple. Headwinds related to the induction cooktop base effect are likely to abate from March 2014 onwards, since we expect the revival of revenue growth in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu only after 1QFY15. Therefore, we see the likelihood of better entry points for investors over the next three months, before its fundamentals gather momentum in 1QFY15.
(500) (1,000)
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TTK Prestige
Exhibit 6: Valuation of real estate cash flows
Item Saleable area (in sq ft on a built-up basis) Proportion for residential use Proportion for commercial use Residential rate for sales (`/sq ft) Commercial rate for lease (`/sq ft/month) TTK Prestige's share of sales Cash flows to TTK from resi sales (` mn) Annual cash flows to TTK from comm lease Tax rate WACC Terminal growth rate Year of commencement of cash flows Total NPV NPV per share Above as a % of current share price Source: Company, Ambit Capital research Value 680,000 35% 65% 3000 25 43% 307 57 30% 14.3% 4% FY15 969 86 2%
Relative valuation
As shown in the table below, TTK Prestige is currently trading at 26.0x FY15E earnings. We do not cover its competitors, Hawkins and Gandhimathi, and hence we have no comparable estimates. Thus, we compare TTK with light electrical companies (such as V Guard and Havells), due to their similar industry structure and entry into kitchen appliances. Whilst TTK trades at a higher multiple than its light electrical peers, TTKs earnings multiples are justified, thanks to its diverse product portfolio, strong retail distribution, brand franchise and entry into new categories.
Exhibit 7: Relative valuations
Company name TTK Prestige Havells Bajaj Electricals V-Guard Share price (` ) 3,481 780 202 447 MCap (USD mn) 650 1,581 327 217 P/E(x) FY15E 26.0 18.5 11.0 12.4 FY16E 20.6 15.5 9.3 10.7 EV/EBITDA FY15E 17.4 12.0 5.5 7.8 FY16E 14.1 9.9 4.7 6.6 EPS CAGR (FY14-FY16) 29% 23% 50% 28% EBITDA CAGR (FY14-FY16) 26% 20% 41% 25%
Thanks to a significantly smaller per unit cost of brown goods products and high frequency of purchase of brown goods products by households, the longer-term growth profile of the brown goods market is likely to remain steadier than that for the white goods market. In addition, TTK Prestiges company-specific competitive advantages include: (i) expansion across geographies, implying an underlying growth rate of over 40%, excluding the Tamil Nadu drag on the business; (ii) expansion of TTK Prestiges distribution network, allowing the company to evolve as one of the most-efficient retailers in India; and (iii) potential to leverage on its R&D and panIndia presence to expand its product offering over time. Moreover, given the temporary nature of headwinds currently being faced by the company and given its continued market share gains, we expect revenue and earnings growth for TTK Prestige to revive materially from 1QFY15 onwards regardless of when the broader discretionary consumption categories revive.
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TTK Prestige
Exhibit 8: 1 year forward P/E bandcharts 3800 3500 3200 2900 2600 2300 2000 1700 1400 1100 800
Mar-11 May-12 Nov-10 Nov-13 Sep-12 Oct-11 Aug-10 Jan-13 Jul-11 Aug-13 Feb-12 Apr-13
Exhibit 9: 1 year forward EV/EBITDA bandcharts 3800 3500 3200 2900 2600 2300 2000 1700 1400 1100 800
Nov-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 Aug-10 Jul-11 Feb-12
May-
Change in estimates
Exhibit 10: Change in estimates (` mn)
New Estimates FY15E Pressure Cookers & Pans Non stick cookware Gas Stoves Kitchen Electrical appliances Total revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) PAT 5,887 2,690 1,891 5,557 16,435 2,326 14.2% 1,553 FY16E 7,064 3,228 2,269 7,223 20,267 2,878 14.2% 1,967 Old Estimates FY15E 6,132 2,917 1,812 5,966 17,569 2,437 13.9% 1,638 FY16E 7,358 3,500 2,174 7,756 21,680 3,018 13.9% 2,076 Change FY15E -4% -8% 4% -7% -6% -5% 28 -5% FY16E -4% -8% 4% -7% -7% -5% 28 No meaningful changes in margin estimates. Comments Factor in lower sales in Tamil Nadu as the power situation still remains a concern. Lower sales of induction cooktops to lead to impact bundled offers of non-stick cookware. Expect increased sales momentum in gas stoves as induction cooktop sales are slower due to the power crises. Reduce our estimates factoring in lower sales of induction cooktops. Led by above changes.
Exhibit 11: Explanation for our forensic accounting scores on the first page
Segment Accounting Score GREEN Comments In the past, TTK Prestige has reported strong cash conversion, efficient management of working capital, and low levels of loans and advances and contingent liabilities. Consequently, we give a high rating to its accounting quality. TTK has encountered certain issues related to regular power supply in Tamil Nadu, due to which it has faced volatility in its sales momentum especially in the induction cooktops category. After a reduction in the revenue growth rate from 45% in FY12 to 23% in FY13 due to issues faced in Tamil Nadu, consensus earnings forecasts have been downgraded by 12% for FY14 and 17% for FY15 over the past six months.
AMBER AMBER
Nov-13
Sep-12
Jan-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
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TTK Prestige
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TTK Prestige
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