Professional Documents
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Chris Webber, VP, Automotive Practice, Tel +44 1908 423641, cwebber@strategyanalytics.com
Agenda
Digital Consumer
Automotive/ Telematics
Strategic Technologies
Offices in Boston, Milton Keynes, Paris, Munich, San Jose, Seoul, and Tokyo
Global Wireless
Emerging Frontiers
Emerging Frontiers
Digital Consumer
AMCS
Automotive Electronics
RF Devices
GaAs
Wireless Enterprise
Wireless Networks
Wireless Devices
Global Wireless
Scene Setting
350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Over the last 8 years Automotive was the fastest growing electronic segment of all with a CAGR of 12.9%
6
1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Car & LT Production
Sensor Demand
Automotive sensor volumes forecast to grow at 11% CAAGR* Car & Light Truck production 4% CAAGR*
Growing consumer expectations for a personalised and connected vehicle Networking evolution within the vehicle Conversion of Mechanics to Electronic Systems
15% of car assembly cost electronics 90% of future car innovation will be electronic - BMW
ISU MPC555 Tail gate Release HC912D60 Distance / Parking Monitor MPC555 HC912D60 (x4) Lighting HC912D60 Engine Ctrl MPC555 Airbag System Motorola based RADIO HC912D60 HC912DG128 Immobiliser HC912DG128 Tail gate Close HC912D60 Trailer Mgt HC912D60 Rear Door HC912D60 Anti-Theft Alarm HC912D60 Suspension MPC555 * Source Freescale
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The Future.
Intelligent Systems and Mobile Ad-hoc Networks: ADAS Car-to-Car Communication Road-to-Car Communication Pedestrian Detection Electronic Road-Signs Traffic Flow Control Around the Corner Sensing Integrated Safety Structure Linkage with local Commerce
11
12
20000
15000
2003
2007 2011
10000
5000
14
15
500
400
2003 2007 2011
300
200
100
16
17
Occupant position
Occupant Classification Sensors
Pedestrian protection Tyre pressure monitoring Lane Departure Warning Driver drowsiness monitor Night vision
18
2003 2011
Good growth opportunities from emerging regions, e.g. China, India Rapid growth for side / head bags NA lags Occupant detection legislation driven in USA
19
Safety Pre-emptive technology Now: Automotive radar Camera technology Future: Pre-emptive technology E.g. Conti APIA integrated stability, collision avoidance, occupant protection
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Nissan Pre-Crash
Triggers Nissan patented seatbelt pre-tensioners and brake assist system
21
Body Systems
22
Multi-zone HVAC
Temperature, humidity, sunlight
Adaptive headlamps
Positioning
Rain Sensors
23
Chassis Systems
24
Chassis System & Component Opportunities Electronic power steering control (EPS & EHPS)
EPS moving into mid to large scale vehicles & North America Steering rate & torque
Adaptive Suspension
Acceleration and height sensors
EPS Demand
25000
- Electrohydraulic Power Steering - Electric Power Steering
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 19 9 19 9 19 9 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 0 20 1 1
EPS migrating into larger models e.g. GM Malibu (D-seg) Higher power motor requirement - brushless dc - switched reluctance (smaller, lower cost) Steering rate and torque sensors
26
Powertrain Systems
27
10.0
9.0
8.0 33.6 35.6 37.6 6.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
7.0
Likely impact and penetration of proposed technologies to decrease fuel consumption highly cost dependent, hence some way off e.g. HCCI ACEA improvement in part due to increased diesel sales
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Electric & Hybrid Vehicles Volume expected to rise to 600,000 by 2006 and over 1.7 million by 2010 Japan will continue to dominate market Diesel and LPG/CNG vehicles limiting European growth NA growth hampered by low fuel prices. Fuel cells seem politically favoured in longer term
2500
2000
29
30
ACC Smart Airbag Blind Spot Wrng. LDWS Night Vision NODS x-by-wire
Side Airbag ESC Keyless Entry E-Steering TPMS Navigation HID Lighting
Development
Growth
Maturity
Driver Information
Yaw (navigation) Acoustic (voice activation)
Safety/Security
TPMS occupant position (weight, IR, Vision) LDWS Blind spot, rear view camera fingerprint
Chassis
steering torque drive shaft torque
Comfort/Convenience
windscreen surface temperature coolant pressure airflow humidity CO, NOx, HC pollutants
Chassis
Steering rate, position, torque ABS (pedal position, brake press.)
Sensor NOX Current Ultrasonic Pressue - Tyre Infra-Red Temperature - Brake Pressure - Brake Pressure - Side Airbag Position - Rear Angle Position - Clutch Air Quality Rollover Pressure - Occupant Position - Gear Lever Speed - Intermediate Shaft Yaw
Application Emission Control Battery Monitoring Occupant Detection TPMS Occupant Detection Braking Systems Braking Systems Airbag Systems 4-Wheel Steering Automated Manual Transmissions HVAC Airbag Systems Occupant Detection Electronically Controlled Transmissions Electronically Controlled Transmissions ESP, Navigation, Suspension
2008 MU 6.4 7.8 2.7 122 1.9 2.0 9.3 11.3 1.5 4.0 9.4 3.2 33.0 86.0 3.0 24.7
CAAGR 2003-08 139% 104% 84% 72% 72% 71% 64% 56% 46% 45% 36% 32% 24% 21% 19% 18%
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Total 2004 Market for Automotive Sensors worth $8.8B Europe: $3.2B 2003-2008 Average Annual Growth Value 9.5% Units= 11.3% Sensor Average Selling Price $8.3 (across all types) Safety sensors account for 15% of sensor market, CAAGR 18% 2002-2007, greater than any other sensor segment
2000 MU 1600
1200
800
400
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 Powertrain 2006 Chassis 2007 Safety 2008 Body 2009 2010 2011
Driver Info
35
12 4 10 3
$B
8
$M
4 1 2
0
2002 2003 2004
JAPAN
0
2005 2006 2007
S.KOREA
2008
CHINA
2009
2010
2011
TOTAL
N.AMERICA
EUROPE
R.O.W.
36
9.5%
37
Million
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SPEED: POSITION:
ACCELEROMETER: OXYGEN:
PRESSURE: OTHER:
38
200
150
$/Vehicle
100
50
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 JAPAN 2006 EUROPE 2007 2008 2009 R.O.W. 2010 CHINA 2011
N.AMERICA
S.KOREA
39
160 140
System Cost $
120 100 80 60 40 20 1960 1980 1995 1998 Year of Introduction 2002 2010
Source: TRW
15000
Source: Strategy Analytics
10000
M$
5000
Silicon Based
Micromachined silicon and semiconductor based share growing 32% 2004 50% 2010 Cost, integration, diagnostics, networking demand drivers
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South Korea
Emerging domestic demand. Serve exports to North America.
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Direct TPMS
Pressure Sensor Total Market Value
700.0 Million $ 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 NA Japan EU SK China
43
44
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Units (k)
45
System
Traffic sign detection Adaptive light control Obstacle detection Distance control Display control vary brightness of
display to ambient conditions
Pre-crash sensing
47
350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Over the last 8 years Automotive was the fastest growing electronic segment of all with a CAGR of 12.9%
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