G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: Fred DuVal For Governor 2014 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group March 3, 2014

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Survey Findings Show Fred DuVal in STRONG Position to Win

From February 3 to 6, 2014, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a statewide survey among a representative sample of 500 likely Arizona voters (margin of error 4.5 percentage points). This survey is completely representative of a mid-term electorate by key factors, including partisanship. For example, party registration in our survey (31% Democrat, 43% Republican) is MORE Republican than the official party registration figures from the Secretary of States office: 30% Democrat, 35% Republican. And our poll is slightly MORE Republican than the November 2010 survey, which had a nearly 11-point GOP advantage in registration. Despite the Republican Party registration advantage, the results clearly show that Fred DuVal is already in an extremely competitive position and has a strong path to victory this November. First, Arizonans are surprisingly open to voting for a Democrat for governor. In the generic vote, voters prefer a Republican over a Democrat by a narrow 43% to 39%. When we posit a MODERATE Democrat against a Republican, voter preferences are TIED (42% Democrat, 43% Republican). In particular, the critical unaffiliated voters are extremely attracted to a moderate Democrat, voting for that candidate by 57% to 22%. None of the gubernatorial candidates we measured has much statewide name recognition: Ken Bennett (39% name ID), Doug Ducey (29%), and Fred DuVal (24%). Yet Arizonans openness to voting for a Democrat is evidenced by the initial trial heat results, in which Fred DuVal is tied with Ducey (32% to 32%) and within the margin of error against Bennett (32% DuVal, 35% Bennett).

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Trial Heats for Governor
Gubernatorial Trial Heats DuVal/Ducey/Hess
DuVal Ducey Hess Democrats Independents Republicans 66% 30% 6% 7% 21% 57% 3% 12% 7%

DuVal/Bennett/Hess
DuVal Bennett Hess 70% Democrats Independents 29% 7% Republicans 7% 23% 63% 2% 11% 6%

32%
Fred DuVal

32%
Doug Ducey

32%
Fred DuVal

35%
Ken Bennett

6%
Barry Hess

6%
Barry Hess

All voters

All voters

Finally, Arizonans issue priorities are much more in line with a pragmatic, proeducation candidate such as Fred DuVal. For example, we asked voters to choose between a Democrat who wants to invest in education and a Republican who wants to cut taxes and reduce spending; a solid plurality side with the pro-education Democrat.

Democratic Message on Education Has Traction

Preference for Governor based on View of Reducing Taxes vs. Democratic Policies
Prefer a Republican who supports cutting state taxes for business and individuals and reducing spending Prefer a Democrat who favors making targeted investments in early childhood education and K-12 public schools 51% 41% 37% 23% 49%

47%

All voters

Independents

GOP women age 18 to 54

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In summary, our recent survey is encouraging about Fred DuVals prospects of winning this November(A) Arizona voters are OPEN to a moderate, practical Democrat, (B) the initial trial heats are within the margin of error, and (C) we have a strong case to make FOR Fred DuVals message of focusing on important priorities critical to Arizonas future, such as promoting the 21st century economy and improving education. The Republican Party, by contrast, with its overwhelming support in the state legislature of the extreme and divisive SB 1062 and its recent censure of Senator McCain for being too liberal and working with Democrats, has limited appeal to independents and swing voters. With an aggressive, well-funded campaign that focuses relentlessly on non-partisan, practical issues such as the economy and education, Fred DuVal has an excellent opportunity to be elected Arizonas next governor.

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