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Name: ID Number: Project Title: Internal Supervisor: Degree Title: Date: Word Count: Adam Burke 10112545 Privatisation in Ireland: The Divestiture of Bord Gis Energy Dr. Donal Palcic Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Sociology 20 February 2014 12,983
Abstract
A new round of divestiture in the Irish public enterprise portfolio appears imminent. Government is pursuing privatisation as a means of raising revenue to service the countrys debt and part-finance its NewERA economic stimulus package in the wake of Irelands financial crisis. This paper contends that this privatisation policy is a manifestation of lead coalition government member Fine Gaels neo-liberal economic agenda that seeks to reduce the role of the state in the provision of goods and services previously provided by state owned enterprises (SOEs). The theoretical and empirical case for privatisation as a means of improving enterprise performance is demonstrated to be ambiguous. A case study of the ongoing divestiture of Bord Gis Energy (BGE) is undertaken which finds that BGE is being solid amidst significant regulatory and governance shortcomings and via a method of sale widely criticised in the failed divestiture of Telecom ireann. In conclusion, a recommendation is made that calls for the immediate postponement of any future privatisation of Irelands SOEs.
Contents
Acknowledgements Declaration List of Abbreviations List of Figures and Tables Introduction Chapter 1 Literature Review 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Defining Economic Efficiency 1.2 Theoretical Literature Review 1.3 Methodological Issues 1.4 Empirical Literature Review 1.5 Conclusion Chapter 2 Public Enterprise and Privatisation in Ireland 2.0 The History of Irelands Public Enterprise Formation 2.0.1 Introduction 2.0.2 Public Enterprise Formation in Ireland: 1927-1957 2.0.3 Public Enterprise Formation in Ireland: 19572.1 Privatisation in Ireland 2.1.1 Introduction 2.1.2 Privatisation in Ireland: 1991-1996 2.1.3 The Privatisation of Telecom ireann 2.1.4 Privatisation in Ireland: 2001-2006 Chapter 3 A New Round of Divestitures 3.0 Introduction 3.1 The Economic Crisis in Ireland 3.2 Fine Gaels New Economy Recovery Authority 3.3 Memoranda of Understandings 3.4 Report of the Review Group on State Assets and Liabilities Chapter 4 The Privatisation of Bord Gis Energy 4.0 Introduction 1989 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 13 13 16 17 17 17 17 19 19 19 20 21 22 24 24 24 26 28 29 31 31
4.1 The Economics of Natural Gas 4.2 The European Gas Market 4.3 Bord Gis ireann 4.3.1 The Development of Bord Gis ireann 4.3.2 The Structure of Bord Gis ireann 4.4 Bord Gis Energy 4.4.1 Introduction 4.4.2 Market Share: Electricity 4.4.3 Market Share: Natural Gas 4.4.4 Price Regulation in the Residential Supply Sector 4.4.5 Business Performance 4.5 The Sale Process to Date Chapter 5 Future of Privatisation Policy in Ireland 5.0 Introduction 5.1 A Critique of the Imminent Privatisation of Bord Gis Energy 5.2 Recommendations in Conclusion Bibliography
32 33 34 34 35 36 36 37 37 38 40 42 45 45 45 47 48
Acknowledgements
Firstly, I would like to thank my supervisor Dr. Donal Palcic whose guidance and expertise were invaluable throughout the development of this project.
I would also would like to thank Shelby, for being a beautiful distraction and infinitely patient throughout.
Finally, I would like to thank my parents Ger and David. Your sacrifice, love and encouragement have enabled me to thrive during my four years at the University of Limerick. One day I will be able to repay the debt I owe you.
Declaration
I hereby declare that this project is entirely my own work, in my own words, and that all sources used in researching it are fully acknowledged and all quotations properly identified. It has not been submitted, in whole or in part, by me or another person, for the purpose of obtaining any other credit / grade. I understand the ethical implications of my research, and this work meets the requirements of the Faculty of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences Research Ethics Committee.
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List of Abbreviations
UK SOE BGE NewERA Ltd. EC EU IMF ECB TFP ROCE VA DEA ACC ICC TSB ESOP MoU GDP GJ US VAT USSR NAM OPEC KM CER NDM IC FVT RTF TD RBC OECD ICTU United Kingdom State Owned Enterprise Bord Gis Energy New Economy Recovery Authority Limited European Council European Union International Monetary Fund European Central Banl Total Factor Productivity Return on Capital Employed Value Added Data Envelopment Analysis Agricultural Credit Corporation Industrial Credit Corporation Trustee Savings Bank Employee Share Ownership Plan Memoranda of Understanding Gross Domestic Product Gigajoule United States Value Added Tax Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Kilometre Commission for Energy Regulation Non-daily metered Industrial and Commercial Fuel Variation Tariff Regulated Tariff Formula Teachta Dla Royal Bank of Canada Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development Irish Congress of Trade Unions
Table 4
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Fig. 2 Table 5
39 40
Fig. 3
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Introduction
Since being brought into vogue by Margaret Thatchers UK conservative government in the late 1970s, privatisation has prevailed as the most popular means of improving public sector performance. This prevalence is largely due to a global swing towards a hegemonic neoliberal economic ideology which seeks to minimise government control of the economy by establishing a liberal and competitive private sector market economy. Privatisation has thus become a divisive issue in a wider ideological debate about the role of government in the economy. It is often presented by proponents as the common sense approach to modern economics, while those in opposition tout it as a malicious method of undermining public welfare in the pursuit of maximised profits (Palcic and Reeves 2011). The term privatisation has been used loosely to describe a variety of public sector reforms including liberalisation, deregulation and contraction out of public sector activities. Thus, Starr (1988) defines privatisation as any transfer in the production of goods and services from the public to the private sector. Starr (1988: 16-17) refines this definition in the following sub-categorisation: Governments responsibilities. The sale or lease of public assets (public land, infrastructure or state owned enterprises) by the state to transfer ownership to the private sector. Government withdrawal from the production of services while remaining financier. For example, this can occur by contracting out or through some forms of public private partnerships. The deregulation of entry into former state monopolistic markets. ending public programmes and disengaging from specific
For the purpose of this study, privatisation will hereafter refer exclusively to the transfer of state owned enterprises (SOEs) to the private sector by sale. SOEs are to be understood as per Palcic and Reeves (2011) explanation as commercial enterprises owned by the state, who earn the majority of their income in selling goods and services.
As the pioneers of privatisation policies in Europe, empirical research of the European privatisation experience has typically focused on the experience of the UK. There exists a small but growing trend of country specific studies which seek to illuminate the motivations, rationale, methods and outcomes of the privatisation of state owned companies (Palcic and Reeves 2011). This study seeks to contribute to the existing literature on the Irish privatisation experience by providing an analysis of the ongoing divestiture of Bord Gis Energy (BGE), the retail arm of Irelands state-owned utilities company Bord Gis ireann. This study is structured as follows; a review of the theoretical and empirical literature of privatisation to date is undertaken. This theory is then applied to an analysis of Irish SOE formation and privatisation activity to date. Irelands current economic crisis is then identified and explained as a driving force and rationale for a renewed interest in privatisation in the context of a structured bailout programme. A number of documents are then analysed; the governments NewERA economic stimulus plan, the various Memoranda of Understanding agreed in return for Irelands bailout between the Irish government and the EC/IMF/ECB and a Report of the Review Group on State Assets and Liabilities. This analysis will identify the trajectory of recent privatisation policy formation and demonstrate the key role played by the Troika in the decision making process. A case study of the ongoing divestiture of Bord Gis Energy follows.
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and efficiency in pursuit of personal financial gain. It is argued that privatisation can put in place an incentive structure that allows for the alignment of financial self-interests and corporate goals. Virginian public choice theory on the other hand, identifies non-economic, political motivations for privatisation such as a reduction in state power. This leads Boycko et al (1996) to claim that democratic elections, rather than ownership per se, are the primary source of inefficiencies in state owned enterprises. Parker and Willner (2007) have developed a considerable rebuttal to public choice theory in which they question the very assumption on which the literature is built, that of the individual as homo economicus. They assert that the concept of an economically rational, financially driven individual is not useful in all situations, pointing to the examples of non-commercial activity and social institutions. Furthermore, they argue there to be a bias in the preposition that public sector managers are inherently more disposed to being self-serving and wasteful. They go on to question whether state owned enterprises operate more efficiently in a dictatorship as implied by Boyckos (1996) rationale and find the opposite to be empirically true. De Alesi (1987) concedes that state intervention in the provision of goods and services is useful in so far as it allows for the correction of allocative and distributive market failures. However, he employs a property rights argument to justify privatisation. He sees public servants as pursuing their own self-interest and those of lobbying groups. They do not maximise profit or efficiency, nor do the y operate in the publics best interest. Thus public ownership is easily corrupted, bent to political will and unaccountable. However, it can be argued that the incentive to maximise efficiency for governments is large, as state owned enterprises directly influence government finances and that the democratic process is such that the pressure of future elections makes governments accountable for the performance of those enterprises under their control (TASC 2012). Principal-agent theory examines the relationship between a principal who delegates work to an agent. Objective and information asymmetries characterise this relationship under public ownership; the principal and agents objectives can become misaligned, and the principal strains to see what the agent is doing through a thick layer of organizational bureaucracy. Bs (1991: 92) argues that privatisation alters the context of this relationship. The layer of bureaucracy is reduced, and ownership is diversified amongst a multitude of parties, such as financial organizations, individual shareholders and employees. It is argued that these
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organizational and ownership changes induce an environment where incentives can be realigned, monitoring increased and information can flow more freely. The struggle to design appropriate incentive structures and contracts is overcome, thereby leading to greater efficiency.
Yarrow (1986) used financial performance indicators to study productive efficiency. It was found that private ownership was preferential over public ownership in competitive markets. However, where there existed a market failure, no evidence of improved performance could be observed following divestiture Bishop and Kay (1989) used similar performance indicators to assess the productive efficiency of a sample of UK public and privately owned enterprises in a comparative study. A total factor productivity analysis was also undertaken. This study found that growth and profitability can cause privatisation, and that the very threat of privatisation can improve performance through increasing commercialisation. Bishop and Thompson (1992) studied the performance of British utilities between 1970-1980 and 1980-90. Labour productivity gains were found, as privatisations took hold at the end of the 1970s. Productivity gains measured with a total factor productivity analysis were identified to be higher in the 1980s than the 1970s but the researchers suggest that changes in the regulatory environment were more influential than ownership changes in bringing about these gains. These studies are not without methodological problems. Both studies by Yarrow (1986) and Bishop and Thompson (1992) were undertaken immediately after privatisation thus precluding the longer term effects of these divestitures from their a nalysis. Bishop and Kays 1989 study failed to control for national productivity which may have had a significant bearing on their findings. Furthermore, the time periods analysed in Bishop and Thomsons 1992 study did not coincide with the times of privatisations occurring thereby rendering it very difficult to identify the effect of privatisation on the observed productivity gains. In general, such studies fail to account for the effect of organisational and management changes that tend to arise with an ownership change. If the effect of these changes has a significant bearing on performance gains, a case might be made for corporate restructuring over privatisation as a means of achieving economic efficiency (Palcic and Reeves 2011). Three broad based empirical studies conducted by Meggison et al (1994), Boubakri and Cosset (1998) and DSouza and Meggison (1999) collectively analysed the effect of privatisation on the performance of 211 firms, across 42 countries and 56 industries. Using largely the same methodology, the studies tested whether privatisation led to increased profitability, operating efficiency, capital investment spending output, dividend payments, decreased employment and leverage. These performance indicators were measured for the three years prior to and following divestiture.
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Meggison et al (1994) found performance to be superior following privatisation. Profitability, dividend payments and capital investment increased while employment remained constant. These performance indicators were not market adjusted; however they concluded that their results were not influenced by the macroeconomic environment by computing the average Gross National Product growth rate, inflation rate and change in countries industrial production index. Boubakri and Cosset (1998) found similar gains in performance while exclusively studying privatisation in developing countries. They sought to isolate the effect of privatisation from economy wide factors by calculating performance indicators with both raw and market adjusted data. DSouza and Meggison (1999) made no such allowance for the business cycle. However, their findings correspond with those of the two aforementioned studies, as well as measuring an increase in post-divestiture employment. These studies do not overcome the methodological issues as outlined previous. The performance measures employed cannot accommodate the non-profit motive of state owned enterprises, nor can the effect of divestiture be isolated from the wide array of determinants of performance. Further problems arise when one analyses the composition of the companies studied in these broad based studies. Boubakri and Cosset (1998) dealt exclusively with divestitures in developing countries. The relevance of their experience could be questioned for a study of a small open economy such as Irelands. Furthermore, DSouza and Meggison (1999) used a sample with a high proportion of electricity and telecom companies. Such companies experiences have been unique, with a global policy preference towards privatisation as a means of funding the capital investment needed for a rapid technological advancement in the sector. Thus, their findings are limited in their application to other sectors at different stages of development (Palcic and reeves 2011). While the methodological difficulties in studying privatisation are such that the academic literature is unavoidably imperfect, Martin and Parkers (1997) study of 11 privatised companies in the UK represents one of the most comprehensive to date. Throughout, national productivity trends were accounted for and averages figures used for periods before and after divestiture. The researchers employed several methods to establish the impact of privatisation on performance: Martin and Parker (1997) began by studying the effect of the change from public to private ownership had on labour productivity, finding it increased in most cases. However, a Total Factor Productivity (TFP) analysis saw TFP increase in only 2 cases. The researchers
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concluded that overstaffing occurred in public enterprises through managerial slackness and inefficiencies arising from political intervention. Repeating the study using the accountancy ratios Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) and Value-Added (VA), the researchers could not support the hypothesis that private enterprises performed better than their public counterparts on efficiency grounds. In looking at the affect of privatization on technical efficiency, Martin and Parker (1997) employed a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This linear programming method derives the relative efficiencies of decision making units. Using 3 different models, no systemic evidence of technical efficiency gains following divestiture were found, despite 3 of the 11 privatised companies demonstrating technical efficiency gains. Finally, the effect of business restructuring on performance was analysed in the context of privatisaion and a change in the competitive environment. This highlighted the importance of internal factors on performance, as privatisation and a more competitive market were found to bring about several positive changes internally, such as an increased focus on profits and consumer needs, flexible working practices, a flattening of organisational structures and an increase in disposals and acquisitions.
1.5 Conclusion
The theoretical literature of privatisation is inconclusive. Even if we agree that in theory, privatisation can lead to improved efficiency and profitability, the effect of privatisation on wider society must be considered. One must acknowledge that economic efficiency is not always the primary motive of a state owned enterprise. The deliverance of a good quality product or service at an affordable price, with universal access may not be a technically efficient strategy, but is equitable and beneficial to the wider society. Nobel Prize laureate Joseph Stiglitz (1994) describes privatisation as a trade off between Technical and Allocative efficiency, the result of which is ambiguous at best: We cannot, in general, be assured that private production is necessarily "better" than public production. Privatization involves costs and benefits, which, as always, must be weighed against each other. (Stiglitz 1994: 194)
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was established in 1939, initially as a producer of industrial alcohol, but then extending to produce a multitude of chemicals. In 1936 Ireland established Aer Lingus as the state airline, while Aer Rianta took control of Dublin Airport.
Table 1: Commercial State-Owned Enterprises in Ireland by the 1980s Company Agricultural Credit Corporation Electricity Supply Board Industrial Credit Corporation Irish Sugar Aer LIngus Aer Rianta Ceimici Teo Irish Life Irish Shipping Cras Iompair ireann Established 1927 1927 1933 1933 1936 1937 1939 1939 1941 1944 Sector Banking & Finance Electricity Banking & Finance Sugar Production Air Transport Airports Chemicals Insurance Sea Transport Rail & Road Transport Peat Production Steel Production Seaweed Processing Health Insurance Broadcasting Fertiliser Production Sea Transport Banking Gas Distribution Oil Refining & Supply Telecommunications Postal Services Forestry
Bord na Mna 1946 Irish Steel 1946 Arramara Teo 1949 Voluntary Health Insurance 1957 Raidi Teilifs ireann 1960 Ntrigin ireann Teo- IFI 1961 B&I Line 1965 Foir Teo 1972 Bord Gis ireann 1976 Irish National Petroleum Corporation 1979 Telecom ireann 1984 An Post 1984 Coillte Teo 1989 Source: Palcic and Reeves 2011
The outbreak of World War Two in 1939 provided an additional impetus for Ireland to operate self-sufficiently. Irish Shipping was founded in 1941 to secure service between Ireland and Britain during the war. The transport company Cras Iompair ireann, Irish Steel and a seaweed processing company Arramara Teo were established throughout the 1940s following nationalisations and mergers (see Table 1). The state established itself in the financial services sector with the formation of Irish Life Assurance Company in 1939 following the nationalisation of 5 British companies the state had invested in, and formed the Voluntary Health Insurance company in 1957 to insure those not covered by the Health Acts (Palcic and Reeves 2011).
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2.0.3 Public Enterprise Formation in Ireland: 1957-1989 SOEs now existed across many sectors, and were essential in implementing broad government policies as Ireland began to embark upon an era of outward looking economic planning from 1958. Governments emphasis shifted from self sufficiency to establishing an export orientated economy which was attractive to foreign direct investment. Agencies such as Cras Trchtl and the Irish Export Board were formed to service the needs of this private capital by offering advice and information (OMalley 1989:86). Other agencies were established such as Gaeltarra ireann in 1959 to develop Irish speaking areas and Bord Iascaigh Mhara in 1952 to develop Irelands fishing industry. Commercial SOEs continued to be established; the state broadcasting agency Raidi Teilifs ireann in 1960, the fertiliser company Ntrigin ireann Teo in 1961 and B&I Line, a ferry company formed in 1965 following the nationalisation of a failing British company (Palcic and Reeves 2011). SOE formation continued into the 1970s, with the establishment of the state rescue bank Foir Teo in 1972. Of particular interest to this study is the establishment of Bord Gis ireann in 1976 as the monopoly distributor of natural gas in Ireland. Telecom ireann and An Post (1984) and the state forestrys company Coillte Teo in 1989 were corporatized from the civil service to become commercial SOEs. At the beginning of the 1980s, 23 SOEs were categorized as commercial entities engaging in the production of goods and services (Palcic and Reeves 2011). In sum, the rationale for establishing SOEs in Ireland was largely due to the need for the creation of national wealth in a newly independent state without basic industries or the means of attracting private enterprise. The formation of SOEs provided state autonomy and the means to pursue state goals (Palcic and Reeves 2011).
Maastricht Treaty asserting a pressure to quickly reduce government debt and deficits to meet its criteria and the issuing of EU directives banning state aid to failing SOEs (Palcic and Reeves 2011). In conclusion, it will be demonstrated that decisions to privatise in the Irish case have been made pragmatically, and not based on any single rationale.
Table 2: Privatised SOEs in Ireland and Exchequer Proceeds Company Year of sale Exchequer proceeds (000s) 210,650.8 601,930.8 10,792.8 0 6,399,907.9 322,274.8 408,350.3 20,000.0 154,603.0 240,902.3 8,369,412.7
Irish Sugar Apr. 1991 Irish Life Jul. 1991 B&I Line Jan. 1992 Irish Steel Apr. 1996 Telecom ireann Jul. 1999 Industrial Credit Corporation Feb. 2001 Trustee Savings Bank Apr. 2001 Irish National Petroleum Corporation Jul. 2001 Agricultural Credit Corporation Feb. 2002 Aer Lingus Oct. 2006 Total Source: Palcic and Reeves 2011
2.1.2 Privatisation in Ireland: 1991-1996 Throughout the 1980s, Ireland opted to commercialise its SOEs rather than follow a growing trend of privatisation in the UK and Europe, despite facing a severe financial crisis. Government promises to trade unionists to avoid privatisations were eventually broken however, as the pro-privatisation Progressive Democrats came into power as a minority coalition member in 1989. The dual divestiture of Irish Sugar Company and Irish Life Assurance in 1991 set a precedent for further divestitures in Ireland. These privatisations can largely be explained with Chicagoan public choice theory, which demonstrates internal actors ability to lobby relevant government ministries and officials. The privatisation of Irish Sugar Company and Irish Life Assurance was driven by decision makers within the companies, who pushed their privatisation agendas through to IPOs in 1991 (Palcic and Reeves 2011). Government continued to proceed cautiously and pragmatically following these divestitures. Increasing the commercial performance of SOEs took priority over changing ownership. Government took a hard line on loss makers, as evidenced by the liquidation of Irish Shipping and Ceimici Teo in 1984 and 1986 respectively. It can be noted that the hard line
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taken at this time was partly due to increasing European integration, with the conditions of the Maastricht Treaty necessitating stricter fiscal discipline. By 1991, shipping company B&I Line had accumulated losses of 170.71 million, relying on exchequer funding to service its debt. Irish steels performance was similarly weak. Between 1980 and 1993, the steel company received 234.9 million funding from government, but remained unprofitable, with a net loss of 16.48 million in 1993. Rather than opt for liquidation, govern ment choose to sell the companies as going concerns. B&I Line was sold in 1992 to Irish Continental Group for 10.79 million, with government agreeing to pay 44.4 million of its debt. Irish Steel was sold in 1996 to ISPAT International (Palcic and Reeves 2011). 2.1.3 The Privatisation of Telecom ireann By far the most significant divestiture in the history of the Irish state is that of Telecom ireann (T); the national telecommunications operator. From its establishment in 1984, T operated as a monopoly in the Irish telecommunications market. EU legislation saw T facing full market liberalisation in 1998. To adapt to this impending competitive market, internal management sought large capital investment. It was argued that such an investment could only come from private sources thus management instigated a partial strategic privatisation, eventually leading to full privatisation. In 1996 Comsource consortium purchased a 20% stake in T, with an option to increase this holding to 35%. The Communications Workers Union, the final hurdle in the full divestiture, agreed on the basis of a generous 5% employee share ownership plan, with a further 9.9% stake bought at a fair price (Palcic and Reeves 2011: 155-177). T, rebranded as Eircom, was fully privatised in 1999 with the remaining 50.1% stock flotation generating sales revenue of approximately 6.4 Billion. To put this in the context, this represents 76.47% of total exchequer proceeds from privatised SOEs in Ireland. Government promoted Ts flotation as a means promoting popular capitalism. Its goal of widening share ownership seemed successful initially, with 575,000 people purchasing stock. However as stock prices deteriorated, many thousands of these small shareholders were burned, curbing the publics appetite for future privatisations (Palcic and Reeves 2011: 155177). The privatisation of T has become known to be an example of failure in privatisation. The lessons learned from this should be applied in future privatisations. Central to this failure was governments decision to sell T as a vertically integrated business, not keeping the network
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element of the business in state control. Also, selling T in one go as opposed to gradually reducing ownership and keeping a golden share, which would have allowed the state to prevent undesirable changes in ownership has been a source of much criticism (Palcic and Reeves 2011: 155-177). Eircom, was split up, with its fixed line business sold to private equity consortium Valentia. In 2006, Australian investment firm Babcock and Brown bought Eircom in a leveraged buyout and subsequently sold it to Singapore Technologies Telemedia in 2010. Eircom now holds over 4 billion in debt, which has hampered its ability to invest in capital infrastructure and contributed significantly to the slow roll out of broadband services in Ireland. This infrastructural deficit persists in Ireland today, and has necessitated government intervention (Palcic and Reeves 2011: 155-177). 2.1.4 Privatisation in Ireland: 2001-2006 Between 2001 and 2002, the 3 state owned commercial banks were privatised; the Agricultural Credit Corporation (ACC), Industrial Credit Corporation (ICC) and Trustee Savings Bank (TSB). Government policy sought to foster competition in Irelands banking sector and considered a number of options for the 3 publicly owned banks including a merger of the three or the sale of TSB to recapitalise a merged ACC and ICC. With privatisations initially mooted in 1992, it was 2001 before the ICC was sold to Bank of Scotland (Ireland) for 349 million. TSB was sold later that year to Irish Life and Permanent for 430 million to form Permanent TSB. In 2002, the ACC was sold to Rabobank for 165 million. In all three cases, ESOPs of 14.9 % were agreed which ensured worker cooperation. Successive governments were in agreement that government should exit the banking sector, selling 3 small players to aid competition. This rationale guided the privatisations through a protracted period of practical difficulties in finding an appropriate buyer for each (Palcic and Reeves 2011). In July 2001, the Irish National Petroleum Company was sold to Tosco Corporation for 116 million. The cost of capital investment necessary to upgrade its refinery facilities was deemed too high to be paid from the exchequer and the sale proceeded with a number of conditions; Tosco agreed to commercially operate the refinery and terminal operations for 15 years while maintaining existing jobs and employment conditions. Also, they agreed to undertake any capital investment necessary to adhere to future EU regulations (Palcic and Reeves 2011).
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The state-owned airline Aer Lingus had struggled to remain commercially viable through a volatile 25 year period which included the Gulf War of 1990-91, the outbreak of foot and mouth disease in 2000 and the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington in September 2001. 2 rationalisation plans saw injections of state capital, sale of non-core assets, a pay freeze, redundancies and a granting of a 14.9% ESOP. As the state made it clear it would not provide any further capital injections, management sought to mobilise private capital to meet the cost of funding necessary fleet renewal. Government opted to retain a 25% stake in the company, and floated the remainder on the stock exchange in 2006. The decision to privatise was initially made in 1999; however a lack of political impetus for privatisation following the failed privatisation of T among other political considerations protracted the process (Palcic and Reeves 2011).
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advantage of a global technological boom. Good macro-economic policies underpinned this growth, as evidenced by an ability to reduce its debt to GDP ratio to 25% (Central Statistics Office 2012). Donovan and Murphy (2013) note the global economy began to contract in 2002. Equity markets in the US and Europe fell due to unrealistic profit expectations largely in the technology sector. Terrorist attacks in the US on September 11th 2001, and the foot and mouth crisis of the same year saw a downturn in the US and European economies. They suggest that Ireland resisted this contraction by pursuing policies to grow its construction sector. Where in the 1990s increasing property prices were arguably justifiable by real economic growth, an artificial property bubble was created. This second phase of economic activity was fuelled by cheap access to European wholesale credit from an Irish financial sector under light regulation from government, the financial regulator and the central bank. The Irish government received windfall revenue through stamp duty, capital gains tax and construction sector related VAT. Government pursued pro-cyclical policies by increasing budget expenditure and balancing it against unsustainable property related tax revenue. By 2007, the property bubble had developed to the extent that residential property prices had quadrupled since 1996 (Palcic and Reeves 2013). This property bubble inevitably burst after 2007. Prices of residential properties in Ireland in September 2013 have fallen 62.2% from their peak in August 2007 (Central Statistics Office 2014a). This collapse in construction activity saw a sharp rise in unemployment, from 4.5% in 2007 to 12% in 2009 (Central Statistics Office 2014b) which squeezed public finances already reeling from the loss of property related revenue such as stamp duty, on which the exchequer had become overly reliant on. As the economy contracted, it became apparent that the Irish banking sector was overly exposed to the property sector. At the end of 2007, bank loans and advances to customers were over twice the s ize of the countrys GDP, at almost 400 billion (Nyberg 2011). By late September 2009, the Irish banking sector was on the brink of collapse. The Irish government took the decision to guarantee the deposits and most liabilities of all Irish banks, a gross liability guarantee of 375 billion, 33% of which was senior unsecured debt. Government decided that it would prevent any Irish bank from defaulting on its maturing obligations, thereby avoiding a crisis of confidence in the Irish banking sector and preventing a run on Irish banks. This decision has proven to be an extremely costly one. Government did
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not foresee the extent of Irish banks bad debts, largely arising from property related loans. To date, the recapitalisation of Irish banks has cost the state 64 billion (Nyberg 2011). Ireland faced a dual dilemma; the true cost of recapitalising its banks was becoming apparent and a massive structural deficit was developing. International financial markets were in a liquidity crisis, and the global economy had begun to slip into recession. International money markets became increasingly reluctant to lend to Ireland. By late 2010, Ireland was unable to access credit and government was forced to enter into an EC/IMF/ECB bailout program on 29 November 2010. Ireland secured 85 billion in funding composed of 45 b illion in bilateral loans and funding from the European Stability Fund, 22.5 billion from the International Monetary Fund and 17.5 Billion from Irish contributions via the National Pension Reserve Fund (Donovan and Murphy 2013). The effects of Irelands economic collapse are made stark by key indicators; Unemployment rose from a low of 3.7% in the first 5 months of 2011, and peaked at 15.1% in February 2012. This figure has improved somewhat to 12.3% in January 2014, although economic emigration accounts for some of this reduction (Central Statistics 2014b). Real GDP for the second quarter of 2013 was 9.8% lower than its peak in the fourth quarter of 2007. Irelands Debt to GDP ratio averaged 71.3% between 1980 and 2012, and fell to a low of 24.8% in December 2006 (Central Statistics Office 2014c). At year end 2013, Irelands Debt to GDP was 124.1% (Irish Fiscal Advisory Council 2013). Government policy in response to this crisis, and the stipulations of the bailout program with the EC/IMF/ECB has significantly altered the composition and function of Irelands public sector; with a raft of nationalisations, new SOE formations and planned privatisations occurring (Palcic and Reeves 2011). Although Ireland left this structured bailout program in December 2013, the decision making process around public enterprise appears to have been altered indefinitely.
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between Ireland and Europe and create a new governance structure for the public sector (Fine Gael 2009). This stimulus was to be financed from a number of sources; The European Investment Bank, The National Pension Reserve Fund, commercial borrowings of SOEs, a NewERA recovery bond to be offered to the Irish people and, of primary interest to this study, from revenues accruing from the sale of non-strategic state assets. The non-network elements of both major state utilities companies, Bord Gis ireann and the Electricity Supply Board, were earmarked for sale (Fine Gael 2009). The governance of the state sector would be restructured with the establishment of NewERA Ltd. as the states holding company. 100 professionals would be employed at NewERA to commercially manage 5 new SOEs in a consolidated public portfolio. Smart Grid and Gaslink would become owners and operators of Irelands electricity and gas networks respectively. Furthermore, a National Recovery Wholesale Bank would be established to facilitate commercial borrowings of SOEs (Fine Gael 2009). Fine Gael came into power as the majority party in a coalition government with Labour in September 2011 on the back of an economic mandate largely represented by NewERA. It must be noted that Fine Gaels neo-liberal economic policies, which seek to minimise the states role in the provision of services, is at odds with Labours policies. In their pre-election manifesto in 2011, Labour stated its commitment to public enterprise: Labour is committed to the concept of public enterprise, and is determined to ensure that semi-state companies play a full role in the recovery of the Irish economy. Labour is opposed to short-termist privatisation of key state assets, such as Coillte or the energy networks. (Labour 2011) As Taft (2012) observes, Labour failed to protect this commitment in negotiations for the program for government, which when published contained Fine Gaels commitment to raising 2 Billion in revenue from the sale of state assets (Fine Gael and Labour 2011). At the time of writing, much of this program has not been implemented. The NewERA Ltd. holding company to manage public enterprise has not been established. NewERA has instead developed as a non-statutory body within the National Treasury Management Agency tasked with overseeing the financial performance, corporate strategy, capital and investment plans of the five commercial semi-state companies within its remit; ESB, Bord Gis ireann, EirGrid, Bord na Mna and Coillte (NTMA 2013). Planned divestitures of ESB and Coillte have been
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rowed back on due to union resistance and popular protest respectively. To date, the establishment of Irish Water as a subsidiary of Bord Gis ireann, a new SOE to take over the operation of the Irish water infrastructure, has been the only full implementation of the plan.
airline Aerlingus and the privatisation of the non-network elements of Bord Gis ireann. However, mass public protests saw a reversal of the planned divestment of Coillte. Furthermore, government reversed its decision to sell a minority stake in ESB. The sale of Aerlingus will be delayed until market conditions become favourable. Thus, the only planned privatisation to date is that of Bord Gis Energy, the retail arm of Bord Gis ireann. The use of the proceeds of any privatisation is much debated, and again the Troika have been flexible in this regard. The latest indication resulting from negotiations in March 2011 is that 50% of revenues will be used to pay down government debt with the remainder available for state investment as per NewEra (IMF 2012).
As revenues are recommended to be diverted from infrastructural investment to offset spending cuts, such a situation could undo any short term gains to the exchequer made through revenue realisation. Bord Gis Energy is dominant across all market sectors in the supply of natural gas, especially in the residential sector. Thus, regulation must be stringent to protect competition and avoid a situation whereby a privately owned BGE could influence market price. Acknowledging this, McCarthy calls for a full review of the system of energy regulation in Ireland prior to any divestiture; which has not been done. The Review Group does ultimately recommend the privatisation of all Bord Gis ireanns operations except its transmission and interconnector assets (McCarthy et al 2011). Government has acted on this recommendation, but this paper contends they have done so while ignoring concerns and recommendations regarding the adequacy of Irelands energy regulatory regime.
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made that call for reform of Irelands system of energy regulation and SOE governance structure prior to any future privatisations, and that these privatisations are undertaken in a series of tranches.
policies are an endorsement of neo-classical economic theory which advocates for the welfare optimality of competitive equilibrium, however as will be demonstrated, such perfect competition does not exist acro ss all sectors of Irelands natural gas supply market which remains price regulated in one sector.
distribution pipes, the prevalence of state monopolies, and prices pegged to those of competing fuels (Heren 1999). EU directives have sought to correct this by creating a single internal market for natural gas. In doing so, they liberalised European gas markets in 2003 and forced ownership unbundling in 2009. The EUs objectives are to increase service quality, achieve universal service, increase consumer protection and achieve security of supply with a competitive internal market with appropriate regulation. It seeks to achieve this by removing government from the European gas market and relying on competition between profit maximising private enterprises to achieve their objectives (Council Directive 2009/73/EC, Council Directive 2003/55/EC). However as we have seen, privatisation literature does not definitively support this approach.
Firmus in Northern Ireland, having entered the Northern Irish market in 2003 via network connections from Belfast to Dublin and Carrickfergus (Co. Antrim) to Derry city (Bord Gis ireann 2012). 4.3.2 The Structure of Bord Gis ireann Today, Bord Gis ireann operates as a commercial enterprise owned by the Irish state. Bord Gis ireann has evolved from a gas transmission company to become a major energy provider. Recently, government has created a subsidiary, Irish Water, which is being established as Irelands new public water utility (Bord Gis ireann 2013b). The firms business structure is illustrated in Fig. 1. This study focuses solely on the divestiture of Bord Gis ireanns retail arm, Bord Gis Energy. As such, an understanding of the parent companys structure is essential.
Irish Water
Gaslink
Firmus
Source: Bord Gis irean Annual Report and Financial Statements 2012
Gaslink is the independent gas system operator, created as per the unbundling requirements of the EU. Gaslink is responsible for the maintenance and operation of the gas distribution and transmission networks. Bord Gis ireann owns the networks, and in practice Gaslink uses Bord Gis Networks as a service provider to carry out the majority of this work. It is thought in the future much of Bord Gis Networks work will be transferred to Gaslink (Bord Gis ireann 2013b).
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Bord Gis Networks work on behalf of Gaslink to develop and maintain Irelands natural gas transmission and distribution network, as well as providing gas transportation services to suppliers and shippers. This network now consists of over 14,000 km of pipes and 2 sub-sea interconnectors to the UK (Bord Gis ireann 2013b). Irish Water has been established as per NewERA to take over the public water services from 34 local authorities. Irish Water will deliver services to public water uses and are responsible for the installation and of water meters and subsequent billing of water users. As a subsidiary of Bord Gis ireann it is thought they will better be able to raise finance on international markets to fund capital investment projects necessary to maintain and upgrade Irelands public water infrastructure, and will benefit from the groups experience in network operations (Bord Gis ireann 2013b). Firmus is Bord Gis Energys subsidiary in Northern Ireland, where it is licensed to supply natural gas and electricity in 10 towns and cities including the greater Belfast area, Derry, Newry and Ballymena. It is also responsible for developing and connecting the gas network in licensed areas to that of the Republic of Ireland. As Bord Gis Energys subsidiary, Firmus will also be privatised (Bord Gis ireann 2013b).
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At the end of 2012, BGE employed 453 people in the Republic of Ireland. The following outlines BGEs position across all market segments in the electricity and natural gas supply markets as per the data of the Commission for Energy Regulations annual report 2012 (CER 2013). An overview of BGEs financial performance is then given. 4.4.2 Market Share: Electricity All market segments in Irelands electricity supply market have been deregulated, however Irelands state owned electricity company the Electrical Supply Boards retail arm Electric Ireland remains dominant across all market segments. In 2012, BGE saw a decline in its market share in electricity supply. Table 3 details BGEs market share across the 4 market segments as per year end 2012. Total customer numbers for all suppliers for the year were 2,237,203. BGE supplied 328,617 of these in the domestic market, and 19,030 in the business and large energy users segments (CER 2013).
Table 3: Market Share of Electricity Suppliers as a Percentage of Customer Numbers across Market Segments
Domestic Electric Ireland Airtricity Bord Gis Energy Vayu Energia Others Total 64.55% 18.06% 16.26% 1.14% 100%
Large Energy User 42.13% 26.20% 9.38% 4.51% 15.63% 2.16% 100%
Source: CER Electricity and Gas Retail Markets Annual Report 2012
4.4.3 Market Share: Natural Gas BGE remains dominant across all market segments in the supply of natural gas, however competition is driving their market share down year on year. The CER (2013) divides the natural gas market into segments as per the following: Domestic: non-daily metered (NDM) residential customers. Industrial and Commercial (IC): businesses with a supply point capacity of below 3,750kWh and consumption level below 73,000kWh.
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Fuel Variation Tariff (FVT) : NDM gas customers with a supply point capacity of above 3,750kWh and consumption level above 73,000kWh. Regulated tariff formula (RTF): annual consumption of between 5.5GWhs and 264 GWhs.
8 suppliers compete across 4 market segments in the supply of natural gas in Ireland. In the domestic market in 2012, BGE had a very large market share. This share is falling in line with CER targets however, and was significantly lower at year end 2013 as discussed in detail below. In the IC market of 22,949 customers, BGE supplied 10,677. In the FVT market BGE supplied 589 of 1,750. Although Vayu and Energia hold a larger market share in the RTF market as a percentage of the 246 customers, BGE supplied the largest volume of natural gas (1,194 GWhs or 21.09% of total volume). Across all deregulated market segments BGE faces ever increasing competition and declining market share however it remains dominant as the markets largest supplier (CER 2013).
Table 4: Market Share of Natural Gas Suppliers as a Percentage of Customer Numbers across Market Segments
Domestic Bord Gis Energy Airtricity Electric Ireland Flogas Energia Vayu Phoenix Gazprom Others Total 65.65% 17.14% 12.38% 4.83% 100%
Source: CER Electricity and Gas Retail Markets Annual Report 2012
4.4.4 Price Regulation in the Residential Supply Sector Policies which have liberalised and deregulated areas of Irelands market for natural gas aim to maximise social welfare through competition. These policies are premised on the assumption that the firms operate within a perfectly competitive market. The following section analyses the residential market for the supply of natural gas in Ireland, detailing the suppliers in operation, their market share as of December 2013 and the switching rate
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between them to assess if there exists an appropriate level of competition for the successful divestiture of Bord Gis Energy into a deregulated market (CER 2014). The Irish natural gas market was fully liberalised in 2007, however new entrants had existed since 2004. All areas of the market are now deregulated except residential supply. The Commission for Energy Regulation (2014) has outlined three criteria that must be met before it ceases to regulate prices set by BGE in this market: BGE must hold less than 55% of the market share of residential gas supply. There must be 3 (2 non-BGE) suppliers in the market with more than 10% of the market share of residential gas supply. Consumer switching rates between natural gas suppliers should be greater than 10% per year.
Fig. 2 Market Share of Residential Natural Gas Supply
5.12%
17.33%
Airtricty Flogas
20.32%
Source: CER Review of the Regulatory Framework for the Domestic NDM Retail Gas Market Competition Review December 2013
As illustrated in Fig. 2, 2 of the CERs criteria for full deregulation of the natural gas sector in Ireland have been met. There are 3 suppliers, BGE, Electric Ireland and Airtricity, with a market share in excess of 10%. Furthermore, the consumer switching rate for the year 2013 was 17.33%. However, BGE hold a market share of 57.23% at year end 2013, in excess of the 55% threshold for deregulation. As such, BGE s decisions of supply and price setting are
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non-negligible. It holds market power in an imperfectly competitive market for residential supply.
Table 5: Irish Residential Gas Prices to Residential Consumers at Purchasing Power Parity (all taxes included) (1st Semester 2013) EU Comparison
Residential Consumption Bands Consumption < 20 GJ 20 GJ < Consumption < 200 GJ Consumption > 200 GJ
/kWh
Currently, BGEs residential gas prices are competitive relative to the EU average as evidenced in Table 5. Privatising BGE in such a scenario will require stringent regulation to guard against BGE abusing this market power (CER 2014) and increasing prices across the market. However, the effectiveness of Irelands current regulatory agencies has been questioned, notably in the Report of the Review Group on State Assets and Liabilities; The Review Group recommends that a comprehensive review of the legislation governing economic regulatory agencies be undertaken and that necessary legislative amendments be enacted prior to any state disposals. (McCarthy et al 2011) 4.4.5 Business Performance Bord Gis Energy is a profitable, commercially viable SOE. Fig. 3 graphs BGEs EBITDA growth from 2009-2012. BGE have performed strongly throughout Irelands economic downturn, despite facing volatile markets for wholesale gas and electricity and decreasing consumer demand. BGE successfully entered the electricity supply market in 2009 (Bord Gis ireann 2010), pioneering the dual-fuel supply model in Ireland. Although they have faced significant competition in both markets, BGE has consolidated its market share in electricity supply and remain dominant in the supply of gas as discussed previously. BGE experienced a large increase in EBITDA in 2012, up to 79.4 million from 44.3 million in 2011. This increase is largely attributed to increased retail performance as a result of a reduction in costs, a lowering of discounts having established themselves in the electricity supply market and an increase in residential gas tariffs of 8.5%. BGEs strong financial performance has made a significant contribution to Bord Gis ireanns ability to pay a dividend of 23.8 million to the exchequer in 2012, bringing the total dividends paid since its
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inception in 1976 to 854 million. BGE employed 453 individuals in 2012 (Bord Gis ireann 2013b).
Fig. 3 BGE Operating Profit before Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) 2009-2012 90 80
EBITDA 'million
70 60 50 40 30
20 2009
2010
2011
2012
Year
Source: Bord Gis ireann Annual Reports (2009-2012)
Beyond being a source of dividend and employment for the exchequer and economy respectively, BGE fulfils wider social aims. Throughout the economic downturn, BGE has worked closely with government agencies and non-profits such as Saint Vincent de Paul, ALONE and MABS to ensure energy is supplied to vulnerable customers who struggle to meet their payments. It has facilitated flexible payment plans and deems cessation of supply a very last resort, only to be undertaken when all other avenues have been exhausted (Bord Gis ireann 2010, 2011). Also, BGE plays an important role in the development of new energy technologies. It has committed capital and resources to the Irish Energy Research Centre and the Irish Maritime and Energy Resource Centre, contributing 1.5 million to the latter for the construction of new premises (Bord Gis ireann 2013b). In the absence of a full cost-benefit analysis of the divestiture, this paper can only observe that BGE will cease to contribute to Bord Gis ireanns dividend to the state and that no commitment has been made to retain BGEs staff. These employees however, will benefit in the short-run from the sale of their employee share ownership plan which sees them hold a stake of 3.27% of the company (Bord Gis ireann 2013b). Uncertainty prevails over a
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privately owned BGEs policy regarding universal access, consumer debts and BGEs commitment to the research and development of new technologies.
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3 December 2013: Having originally come before the Dil in July 2013, the Gas Regulation Bill 2013 is enacted which legislates for the disposal of BGE (Gas Regulation Bill 2013).
13 December 2013: Having returned with an improved bid of 1.12 billion, a Centrica lead consortium including Brookfield Renewable Power and iCON Infrastructure are named as preferred bidders for BGE and Rabbitte says the sale process will conclude early in 2014 (Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources 2013).
Throughout the sale process government communications constantly referred to achieving value in the sale of BGE, with a fair price. However, no indication of what sum this fair price might constitute was offered, thus we are left speculating if the aforementioned value has been achieved. Media reports valued BGE widely at between 1 billion and 1.5billion. Just 16 days before a preferred bidder was selected, Minister Rabbitte postponed the sale process, stating that conditions in the power and commodities markets were not favourable (RT 2013b). It is beyond the scope of this study to assess if the subsequently agreed sum of 1.12 billion maximizes value for the state; however the lack of transparency throughout the process is regrettable. If the government had learned from the failing in the privatisation of Telecom ireann it would have sold an initial tract of shares in BGE thereby establishing a market price for the company and proceeded accordingly. By failing to retain a golden share in BGE, government will be unable to prevent any future undesirable changes in ownership. Media reports have suggested that the Centrica led consortium plans to break up BGE, with Brookfield taking BGEs portfolio of wind farms, iCON taking BGEs subsidiary in Northern Ireland Firmus and Centrica taking the gas and electricity supply business as well as the power generation plant at White-Gate (OHalloran 2013). Brookfield Renewable Power Inc. is a subsidiary of Canadian based Brookfield Asset Management, for which it holds all its renewable energy assets. Brookfield Asset Management specialises in hydroelectric power generation (Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners 2013). iCON Infrastructure is an independent investment firm, currently managing over 1 billion in infrastructure assets in Europe and North America. Among its portfolio is
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Mountaineer Gas, West Virginias market leading natural gas distribution company which supplies natural gas to over 220,000 residential and industrial customers (iCON Infrastructure 2013). Centrica plc. is a British multinational utility company, trading under the names British Gas and Scottish Gas in the UK, and Direct Energy in North America. It is currently the largest supplier of natural gas in the UK, and has a large share of the residential and business electricity supply sector. Centrica was formed from the demerger of British Gas plc. in 1997, the company that was founded following the privatisation of state owned British Gas Corporation in 1986 by Margaret Thatchers UK Conservative government. Today, Centrica operates in all stages of the energy chain, engaging in gas and oil production, power generation and energy trading through Centrica Energy and operating a gas storage facility in the Southern North Sea via Centrica Storage. The company is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 100 Index (Centrica 2013).
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regulatory commission, separate from the Competition Authority to regulate energy, transport and communications in Ireland. Fine Gaels pre-election manifesto committed to the establishment of a supra-regulator of the Irish economy similar to that described by Sweeney, but also regulating competition (Fine Gael 2011). Furthermore, The Report of the Review Group on State Assets and Liabilities ordered a full review of the system of energy regulation in Ireland prior to any divestiture taking place (McCarthy et al 2011). At the time of writing, as the sale of BGE appears imminent, no such regulatory reform has been undertaken. The sale of BGE is not taking place as part of a comprehensive government policy on the future of SOEs in Ireland as recommended by Palcic and Reeves (2011). The governance of Irelands public sector remains in question. Fine Gaels NewERA plan (2009) commits to moving towards a centralised model of governance as recommended by the OECD (2005) in which the government vests all its responsibility in a single agency or department. To this end, Sweeney (2004) and ICTU (2005) propose the establishment of a holding company with statutory responsibility for the management o f Irelands SOEs. Fine Gael endorsed this in its NewERA plan, proposing the establishment of NewERA Ltd. as a holding company with 100 skilled professionals to oversee the management of public enterprise in Ireland (Fine Gael 2009). However, to date, NewERA Ltd. exists only as a non-statutory body within the NTMA wherein it operates an advisory role (NTMA 2013). Government appears to have learned some lessons from the failed privatisation of Telecom ireann. As per the Review Groups recommendation (McCarthy et al 2011), it plans to retain control of the network elements of Bord Gis ireann, a natural monopoly of vital importance to the welfare of the country. In doing so, it can actively manage Irelands energy security and preside over necessary infrastructural investments into the future. However, government is poised to repeat a fundamental mistake in the T divestiture. The states full stake of BGE is being divested in a single sale. This method of sale has attracted wide-spread criticism in the T case, with Palcic and Reeves (2011) strongly advocating for any sale to take place in a series of tranches, from which an accurate market price can be established. Also, government does not plan to retain any golden share in the company and will therefore have no control over future unwanted changes in ownership.
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1) The privatisation of Bord Gis Energy and any future disposals of state assets should be postponed indefinitely until necessary regulatory and governance reforms have been implemented.
2) NewERA Ltd. or a similar agency should be fully established as a holding company with statutory powers to manage Irelands SOEs. This should occur prior to any future privatisations of state owned enterprises.
3) Fine Gael should act on its pre-election commitment to establishing the Competition, Consumer, Utilities Commission as one supra-regulator of the Irish economy. This commission should be afforded the statutory powers necessary to tackle the regulatory challenges that arise in balancing the maximisation of companies interes ts with those of the public.
4) Any future privatisation of Bord Gis Energy should be undertaken on the basis of international best practice and convention, in a series of tranches of shares so which allow for the establishment of an accurate market price. Government should give strong consideration to maintaining a partial stake in the company so as to allow for the veto of decisions it deems damaging to the Irish economy.
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