Pak China Relations US perspective

The geopolitical scenario in Asia is fast shifting as China emerges as a potential superpower and Pakistan finds itself right in the middle as the US tries to maintain the status quo. The last 3 decades has witnessed the rise of China as it has turned itself from a underdeveloped economy into an economic powerhouse. Pakistan has good relations with both these countries but as it appears that interests of China and US at one point are going to diverge, Pakistan might have to choose sides. Pakistan shares a longstanding friendly relationship with China as China has always been considered an all weather friend of Pakistan. The US has always been considered a fair weather friend of Pakistan, relations have always reached a peak when the US requires assistance of Pakistan and the US has always bandoned Pakistan once its interests have been met. Pakistan is considered a gateway to the rich oil and gas fields of the Caucasus in Central Asia. As the global race to acquire these rich fossil fuels heat up between US and China, they are trying to pull Pakistan to their side. Overall, Pakistan will have to make a decision as to what country it will want to enter into an alliance with. Fossil fuels around the world are fast depleting, Caucasus are the only vast untapped energy fields left. A fast growing power such as China needs these fossil fuels to power up her economy. China is now the worlds second largest user of energy and that is why China has invested heavily to acquire fossil fuels from Africa. The US has been blocked in Africa from acquiring any natural resources due to Chinas massive investment and increased diplomatic clout; this is why it does not want the last untapped energy fields to go to China. Thus; to slow down Chinas growth and gain access to the rich fields of Caucasus, it is slowly trying to encircle China by building military fortifications around Chinas territory and increasing diplomatic clout in Central Asia. Pakistans important geostrategic location which is a gateway to Central Asia has become important for both China and the US. Pakistans geostrategic location will allow China to import fossil fuels through land quickly, cheaply and most importantly securely. To deny China this privilege, the US is trying hard to woo Pakistan to pull it outside the Chinese camp. There are going to be serious implications for Pakistan as it is going to be in the middle of the future US-China rivalry. Both countries will use both carrot and stick policy to try and woo Pakistan on their side. China has already started this policy of attracting Pakistan to their side of the camp by increasing trade and defense links with Pakistan. China is investing massively in the infrastructure of Pakistan and has started to fulfill the high end defense requirements of Pakistan Armed Forces. The US on the other hand is withdrawing most of its forces from Afghanistan and focusing on taming Chinas rise. It is starting to put pressure on Pakistan to move away from China by offering attractive aid packages. The US has expressed concern of Chinese engineers working on several infrastructure projects in Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan. Thus, Pakistan will have to wisely take steps to protect its interests. Pakistan needs to take pragmatic steps to ensure its interests. It will have to wisely navigate through this precarious time. Pakistan needs to follow a policy where it keeps her interests supreme over everyone elses. Pakistan needs to follow a Non Aligned Approach where it does not align itself with any power. Pakistan should trade with both China and US. It should welcome investments from both countries and should promote the image of

Pakistan as a regional hub for trading. Pakistan must maintain its current relationship with China and should upgrade the development of Gwadar Port. Chinese reliance on the Gwadar Port would make China a very important stakeholder for Pakistans stability as Chinese economic interests would be at stake. Pakistan needs to move away from its dependence on American aid and start a new relationship based upon partnership between equals. Pakistan should welcome any investment and trade with the US but needs to draw a redline that violation of Pakistani sovereignty and American interference in Pakistans internal affairs would be a breach of partnership. Thus, Pakistan needs to ensure that it does not became a pawn in the New Great Game and should continue to maintain good and equitable relationship with both the US and China. In conclusion, Pakistans relations with both China and US are extremely important. Pakistan cannot ignore the fact that the US is a superpower and China is an upcoming superpower. It needs to maintain a balance between both of them and should actively trade with both these countries. Pakistans interests should be supreme and it should not sacrifice its own interests to please another country. Pakistan needs to maintain a pragmatic foreign policy that balances its interests with both US and China while contributing to prosperity domestically.

Issue of Nuclear Proliferation

Extent of the Issue
The world at present faces a huge challenge of nuclear proliferation. Nuclear proliferation is the act of spreading nuclear weapons or fissile material to non-recognized nuclear countries or independent organizations. The US, which is the sole superpower of the world, has actively engaged in ending nuclear proliferation. Although the Western World has engaged in double standards as it kept a blind eye and provided clandestine support to Israels nuclear program, overall it has done a good job in curbing the proliferation of nuclear material. Pakistan has found itself in the news when in 2004 it was uncovered that an independent network led by former Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan was found guilty of supplying obsolete and faulty nuclear parts to Libya, North Korea and Iran. In the past; India, Pakistan and Israel acquired parts to build nuclear components through a clandestine network. Terrorist organization such as Al Qaeda has made it publicly known that it wants to acquire nuclear weapons. Thus, it is essential for the world to cooperate together and put a cap to the proliferation of nuclear weapons or components. The world has joined hands and 189 countries signed the Nuclear Non proliferation Treaty. This treaty effectively recognized the 5 major powers UK, US, France, Russia and China as nuclear weapons state. India, Pakistan and Israel have not singed this treaty, as they believe it is discriminatory, as it does not legally allow other states to possess nuclear weapons. But these three nations have agreed to abide by principles, which discourage proliferation of nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which was formed in 1957, helps nations nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. It also helps in establishing protocols and safeguards, which ensure that nuclear weapons or components dont fall into the wrong hands. Terrorist

organizations such as Al Qaeda or other independent organizations have actively tried to acquire nuclear weapons but have failed because of strict safeguards applied by all nuclear powered nations. Thus, the world faces a danger of nuclear material falling into the wrong hands but the safeguards taken by nuclear powered nations and IAEA has ensured that chances of nuclear components falling into the wrong hands are minimal. Pakistans nuclear program has been under the scope of the international ommunity for a very long time. International overblown concerns that Pakistani nuclear weapons or components might fall into the wrong hands. It is true that Pakistan acquired a lot of its nuclear capabilities through a clandestine program by importing crucial technologies from the Western World, but it is equally true that the all the other nuclear powers have acquired their capabilities through their own clandestine programs. Pakistan has effectively dismantled the Abdul Qadeer Khan Network and has enhanced security mechanisms inside their nuclear facility. Islamabad has taken a number of steps to improve its nuclear security and to prevent further proliferation of nuclear- related technologies and materials. A number of important initiatives, such as strengthened export control laws, improved personnel security, and international nuclear security cooperation programs have improved Pakistans security situation in recent years. Thus, it is safe to conclude that international concerns regarding Pakistans nuclear program are overblown and Pakistans nuclear program is very safe.

Steps to be taken by international community to eliminate nuclear proliferation:

Punitive international sanctions against hostile nations looking to acquire nuclear weapons capability An agreement regarding safeguards and protocols signed by both NPT and Non NPT Members Pro active steps should be taken by the international community which includes diplomatic, economic and military sanctions if it emerges that a state or a non state entity is looking to acquire nuclear capability Security assurances should be provided to states that are looking to acquire nuclear weapons for their safety Redouble efforts to resolve conflicts and confrontations Reasserting the image of a nuclear free world and taking tangible steps to make this goal real

Conclusion
In conclusion, nuclear proliferation is a very serious issue and the international community needs to take tangible steps to end this problem. Concerns about the safety of Pakistans nuclear weapons are overblown as every independent research study testifies to the fact that Pakistans nuclear weapons are very safe. Enhan ced security protocols and provisions would reduce the chances of any leak of nuclear material. But the end vision for the world

should be world free of nuclear weapons. Practical tangible steps need to be taken to ensure that this vision is achieved.

Pakistan Iran Relations US involvement IPI

Introduction
Pakistan is currently in negotiations with Iran to build a pipeline that would carry gas rom Iran to Pakistan. Pakistan historically shares a very close relationship with Iran. There was a brief hiccup in relations during the 90s when Iran supported the Northern lliance in Afghanistan and Pakistan supported the Taliban. But overall, relations improved during the Musharraf era after the fall of Taliban and several MOUs were signed between both these nations to improve relations. Due to Pakistans acute energy hortages, it has been looking to import gas from Iran. The plan was envisioned in the 1990s where Iran would supply gas to both Pakistan and India through a pipeline. But due to the pressure from severe pressure from the US, the project has been stalled as the US looks to squeeze Iran economically. It is in Pakistans interest that this project is completed in time as it will help Pakistan to solve this major energy crisis.Pakistan at present is in desperate need of gas. As Pakistans domestic gas reserves are being dried up and are likely to only last till 2030, it is imperative for Pakistan to import energy from an external sources at the cheapest rate possible. This is why this pipeline gained traction as it has the potential to ease Pakistans energy crisis. Agreements were signed and Iran has completed the construction of the pipeline on its side of the border. It is from Pakistans side of the border where the project has stalled and the pipeline has not been built. The reason why this project has run into trouble is because of American pressure. As the US is bent on squeezing Iran economically due to Irans nuclear program, it is pressuring both India and Pakistan to back out of this project. India has already backed out of the project as the US has offered a carrot to India in the form of a civilian nuclear fuel deal, while it has not offered Pakistan the same privilege. Pakistan continues to suffer from an energy crunch and has a deficit of 5000 megawatts. The delay of this project will only make Pakistans economic problems worse, thus it is essential for Pakistan to finish this project as early as possible.

Implications for Pakistan

It will help ease Pakistans energy crunch in the short term and it will allow Pakistan to have a stable energy supplier for the long term US will likely implement financial sanctions on Pakistan as Iran has been excluded from international banking system Relations between Iran and Pakistan will further improve which can turn into a strategic partnership in the future Pakistans economic problems will ease as the power companies would be able to generate more electricity through gas There will be political stability inside Pakistan as load shedding has invited riots and mob attacks

 Pakistan will have diversified her energy sources to improve energy security

Recommendations
Pakistan needs to follow a pragmatic approach and needs to bring international support for this project. Pakistan cannot ignore the fact that the US is a superpower and American sanctions can have a devastating effect on Pakistans economy. Thus Pakistan should implement the following steps to safeguard its interests Initiate a system of barter trade with Iran. Instead of wasting precious foreign currency to purchase Iranian gas, Pakistan can trade gas with medical equipment, medicine, food, fertilizer and other consumer goods. Pakistan would be able to convince the international community that these goods are not aiding Irans nuclear program and only consumer goods are being traded with Iran. Pakistan needs to bring the Russian State Owned Energy Giant Gazprom on board. Russian involvement In the project would shield Pakistan from international scrutiny as Russia is a Great Power and is a member of the Security Council in UN. China has shown interest in joining the project. Pakistan needs to convince China that this project will be in the interest of China as it will provide China with energy security. Feasibility studies should immediately be initiated to see if this project would be feasible for China or not.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, work on this project should be immediately initialized. Pakistan is going through a severe energy crisis right now and the delaying of this project would make the energy crisis even worse. Introduction of China and Russia in this pipeline would make this project even stronger as both these nations are members of the Security Council and also bring a lot of resources to the table. US has pressured Pakistan to back off this project but has failed to offer Pakistan with any viable lternative. Energy is a prerequisite for economic growth, this pipeline is essential for Pakistan to turn its lackluster economic performance into massive growth. Pakistan should make it clear to the international community that Pakistan only wants to engage in civil commercial transaction with Iran and has no interest in Irans nuclear program.

Indo US Relations: Nuclear Deal and its Implications on Pakistan

Introduction American and Indian relations have considerably improved over the last decade. American strategy to woo India and bring it under their sphere of influence is part of their strategy of pivot towards Asia. This is why the US has granted India several concessions to please the political leaders of India. The most important concession extended to India is the 123 Agreement. It allows India to engage in commercial transactions with companies to acquire

nuclear fuel for civilian purpose. This is outright discrimination as India has not signed the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and members of NPT are strictly forbidden to trade nuclear fuel with non-members of NPT. This exception was only made for India and has not been made for other members whom have not signed the NPT. This deal will have serious implications for Pakistan as it allows India to transfer all the fuels coming out of its nuclear reactors to military purpose and they can import nuclear fuel from abroad for their civilian needs. Due to Asias booming economy and abundance of rich natural resources, the new American strategic policy is its pivot back towards Asia. For the last decade, US was involved in two wars in Middle East. But now as those wars wind up, the US wants to shift priorities back towards Asia to try and tame its future rival China. As the Chinese make massive improvements in their economy and the military, the US is afraid that China in 20 years will pose a very serious threat to US dominance in Asia. To counter the Chinese threat, the US is supporting India to serve as a counterweight to tame China. This is why the US has extended this deal to India which will allow India to increase her nuclear arsenal and improve her energy production capabilities benefitting her economy. Implications Sets a bad precedent as it discriminates against non-members of NPT Policy of preferential treatment Allows India to stockpile more uranium for military purpose Affects the stability of South Asia Changes the strategic deterrence equilibrium between India and Pakistan Recommendations Pakistan needs to become more vocal about this issue on an international level. Friendly nations should be contacted and urged to either oppose this deal or grant Pakistan and other Non-Members of NPT the same privilege granted to India. Pakistans point of view should be explained to the media so public awareness could be created about this issue. Pakistan needs to make it clear to the US that discrimination against other non-members of NPT would not be tolerated by Pakistan and Pakistan would take alternative steps if a similar deal is not offered to Pakistan. Conclusion: In conclusion, the 123 Agreement is a discriminatory agreement that the US has provided to India in hopes of using her as a counterweight against China. This deal will destabilize the equilibrium of the subcontinent, as it will allow India to build a bigger nuclear arsenal. Pakistan needs to oppose this deal and needs to raise its voice in the international community condemning this deal.

US Exit Strategy from Afghanistan

The United States after conducting a disastrous war is expected to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in 2014 and will leave behind a residual force composed of 25 to 30 thousand soldiers. This war conducted by the United States on a false pretext has had disastrous consequences not only on the US in terms of blood and treasure; it has been successful in destabilizing Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan has been impacted immensely by this war as it has destabilized the nation due to the spill over from Afghanistan. Afghanistan has been reduced into ruins as hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians have died as collateral damage and the infrastructure of the nation has been destroyed. Pragmatic solutions are needed to end this war as the US withdraws from Afghanistan in 2014 or else the consequences can be horrible for Pakistan and the world. Introduction The United States after fighting for almost 11 years has been unsuccessful in pacifying Afghanistan. Insurgency is still rampant and the Taliban and local warlords control 60% of the country. The authority of the Afghan Government largely extends to urban areas while the Taliban and local warlords control most of the countryside. 80% of Afghanistan is made up of villages while 20% of it is made up of cities. More than 2000 American soldiers have lost their lives and the US has spent almost $578 billion in war expenditure for Afghanistan. Even after the sacrifice of these soldiers and this staggering amount, the US has not much to show for its efforts except Kabul. After these failures and a consensus among American strategists that Afghanistan cannot be pacified, the US will withdraw her forces from Afghanistan by 2014 and will leave a residual force of 25 to 30 thousand soldiers. Implications of US-War This war has had a negative impact on all the stakeholders concerned. It has destabilized both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US is currently going through a recession at present. Instead of spending money domestically, the US was forced to spend money in Afghanistan. 2000 soldiers also lost their lives. Most of Afghanistans infrastructure was destroyed during American bombing. More than a 100 000 civilians have been killed in Afghanistan. Due to the spill over of the Afghan war inside Pakistan, almost 40 000 civilians have died and almost 3000 soldiers have lost their lives. The economic cost has been around $70 billion. Thus, it is safe to conclude that the Afghan War has had a negative impact on all stakeholders concerned while the Taliban war machinery is still intact Due to American bullying, Pakistan was also forced to join the Afghan War as an ally of the United States. Due to Pakistans close geographic proximity with Afghanistan, this war was naturally going to be spilt over to Pakistan. Pakistan was forced to mobilize and wage war in its tribal areas. This made Pakistan a target for the Taliban as Pakistan sided with the US. The result has been that almost 4000 Pakistani soldiers have been killed, almost 40 000 civilians have died and the cost to the economy has been around $70 billion. Although Pakistan Army was victorious in the field, the militants have proved to be very adaptive by waging an effective guerilla warfare. Also, the militants have found effective sanctuaries inside Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nuristan. As Afghan Government or ISAF do not occupy these provinces, they are the perfect sanctuaries for militants whom after attacking Pakistani Army check posts retreat back into this territory. Thus, it is safe to say that Pakistan has been badly affected by this Afghan War. What should Pakistan do? Pakistan should welcome the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, as it would bring

stability back inside the nation. The Afghan are historically proud people and they will refuse to be subordinate to any foreign power. Once the Americans withdraw, the different ethnic groups in Afghanistan would have no reason to fight each other. Pakistan should facilitate the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and should insist that no residual forces are left in Afghanistan. Afghanistans destiny should be left to the will of its own people and there should be no presence of foreign troops. Pakistan should insist that developed nations invest in both Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan so the socio economic status can be improved which will stabilize this region Conclusion In conclusion, it is a good step that the Americans will withdraw their forces from Afghanistan. After 11 years of a disastrous war, they have nothing tangible to show for their success. This war has caused immense damages in terms of both blood and treasure to all the stakeholders involved in this war. The war has had a very negative impact on Pakistan as it has destabilized the nation. Increase in the socio economic status of Afghanistan and tribal areas of Pakistan will stabilize the region and not war. Thus, Pakistan should help the Americans in every way possible for their withdrawal.

US Aid & Political Game--A blessing or Curse!

Introduction
American aid and demands proved to be a curse for Pakistan. Pakistan joined the so called American led War on Terror after the attacks on the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001. As a reward, the US Government offered billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan for their contribution in the war. But slowly this aid turned into a curse as the American Government started making unrealistic demands from the Pakistani Government and started blaming Pakistan for their own incompetence in this war. The availability of these funds hampered efforts to initiate reforms for the generation of revenue internally.

Due to the flawed policies of the American war strategy inside Afghanistan, they are looking for a scapegoat for their failures. Pakistan fits the perfect description for their scapegoat and that is why they have launched this mantra of Do More. By pressuring Pakistan to do more, the Americans are relieving the pressure off themselves. They are pressuring Pakistan to launch an operation inside North Waziristan while on the other hand 60% of Afghanistan is under the control of Taliban or local warlords. Kunar and Nuristan, which neighbor Waziristan, have minimal presence of International Security Assistance Force led by the US. Thus, the US wants to successfully pin the blame for their own failures on Pakistan by launching this mantra of Do More.

Repercussions for Pakistan

American aid and demands have had a very negative impact on Pakistan. Pakistan has received $20 billion in the form of aid from the US since 2001, but has ended up suffering losses of almost $70 billion due to terrorist attacks. Since Pakistan is seen as an ally of the US, it has become a legitimate target for the militants fighting against the US in Afghanistan. This is why Pakistan has suffered thousands of suicide bombing attacks by the

terrorists. Also the availability of American funds has blocked efforts to initiate unpopular tax reforms, which would generate revenue domestically. America aid has resulted in greater American control on Pakistans foreign policy resulting in instability for the federation.

Suggestions
Pakistan needs to reject American aid and initiate structural reforms across the board to generate revenue domestically. Tax reforms need to be introduced in the country to increase revenues. Non-discretionary expenditure needs to be curbed to bring the fiscal deficit down. Pro economic policies need to be introduced to jump-start the economy. A strong economy would ensure political independence from the Americans, as they would loose their leverage against Pakistan. Pakistan needs to make it clear to the US Government that Pakistan will launch operation in North Waziristan according to her time table and threat perception.

Conclusion
In conclusion, American aid has presented to be a curse for Pakistan. It has resulted in a stranglehold of the US on Pakistans internal and external policies. Reforms need to be implemented inside Pakistan to make the economy strong and self-sufficient. A strong selfsufficient economy would ensure that Pakistan would not need American assistance for the survival of the nation.

Drone Attacks!
Introduction
The United States under the pretext of preemptive strikes has launched several hundred drone attacks inside Pakistans sovereign territory. These drone strikes are a breach of international law as they carry out extra judicial assassinations inside a sovereign territory without the consent of either the UN Security Council or the UN General Assembly. The blowback out of these strikes has been immense on Pakistan as it has resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians and has had a serious impact on the morale and the stability of the nation. Despite numerous requests from the akistani Government and several other International Organizations, the US has continued topersist with these strikes without any regard for the consequences.

Extent to issue
These strikes are an outright violation of the norms of international law. The US has not acquired the consent of the United Nations to conduct these strikes. An attack against a sovereign nation without the consent of the UN is equivalent to declaration of war against that sovereign nation. This is why the United Nations Human Rights Council has severely criticized the US for its actions and have urged to the US to become more transparent about this program. [COLOR="DarkRed"]

Effects of Drone Attacks

These drone attacks have had a very negative impact on Pakistan especially among the people of Waziristan. The people of Waziristan have to perpetually live in a state of constant fear. Recent patterns of US drone strikes would reveal that they have lindly targeted civilian areas without any regard to civilian casualties. This has decreased the morale of the Pakistani public and has spread a state of helplessness. The attacks have had a very negative impact on the local economy, as investors are unwilling to invest inside Pakistan especially the tribal areas. This has resulted in decline in the economy which is creating a social malaise in the country.

Suggestions
Pakistan needs to implement a multi-layered solution to end this problem. Pakistan needs to take this matter in front of the United Nations General Assembly and put this issue up for a vote. This action will make it clear to the United States that drones are starting to cross the red lines for Pakistan. Pakistani Foreign Ministry needs to start a public relations campaign abroad in all major capitals of the world where the Pakistani point of view should be explained to foreign citizens. Interviews should be given in the media to explain the Pakistani point of view and point out the horrific results of these drone strikes. An organization needs to be established which tracks all the drone victims and their names should be published publicly to make the world aware of this problem.

Conclusion
In conclusion, drone strikes continue to be a shame for the morality of the international community. They are an outright violation of the norms of International Law and have created massive civilian casualties. They continue to be a hindrance for the smooth functioning of the Pakistani society. Pakistan needs to become proactive and take this matter in front of the United Nations and the International Community through media.