Argentina - The Vehicle Industry

by Eduardo Petazze
In May 2014 vehicle production fell by 36.00% Y/Y to an annualized rate of 574.2 K units
For the 3rd quarter of 2014 a recovery in production, driven by a slight improvement in exports is expected.
For the 4th quarter of 2014, a period of very low domestic sales start, as tazes on production are applicable to a greater variety of units.
By 2015, low levels of real incomes, high real interest rates, and excessive tax burden on production, are the critical factors that generalize a virtual
halt in the installed capacity of the industry.
The following table shows the raw data published by ADEFA and supplemented with our own estimates
Last report: Resumen ADEFA May 2014
Vehicle, NSA
Production
Y/Y
Sales
Exports
Jan-13
44,061
4.88%
21,292
24,195
Feb-13
52,911
-2.30%
25,130
24,646
Mar-13
79,031
16.79%
34,432
41,591
Apr-13
75,496
37.84%
33,283
40,864
May-13
79,590
32.20%
31,256
49,594
Jun-13
63,461
19.78%
31,429
42,621
Jul-13
71,895
9.10%
29,490
39,289
Aug-13
69,922 -12.23%
30,847
33,528
Sep-13
71,928
4.66%
32,581
36,489
Oct-13
75,604
-4.80%
29,437
42,873
Nov-13
62,186 -20.24%
29,771
33,733
Dec-13
44,922 -26.39%
29,634
23,872
Jan-14
36,156 -17.94%
16,026
19,570
Feb-14
52,941
0.06%
21,269
25,991
Mar-14
58,319 -26.21%
23,527
28,787
Apr-14
59,165 -21.63%
23,383
32,479
May-14
50,938 -36.00%
23,363
30,130
Jun-14
46,279 -27.08%
25,075
31,274
Jul-14
54,573 -24.09%
23,320
28,614
Aug-14
54,805 -21.62%
24,499
23,751
Sep-14
55,802 -22.42%
25,844
25,950
Oct-14
57,361 -24.13%
22,768
31,592
Nov-14
44,594 -28.29%
22,991
23,671
Dec-14
28,474 -36.62%
22,816
14,443
Last data SA data is our own estimate
Vehicle, NSA
units
Production
Y/Y
Sales
Exports
2009
512,924 -14.10% 198,732 322,495
2010
716,540
39.70% 262,532 447,953
2011
828,771
15.66% 324,795 506,715
2012
764,495
-7.76% 347,997 413,472
2013
791,007
3.47% 358,582 433,295
2014
599,407 -24.22% 274,880 316,253
2015
375,120 -37.42% 191,265 186,236
Own estimate
units

Stock
13,660
16,795
19,803
21,152
19,892
9,303
12,419
17,966
20,824
24,118
22,800
14,216
14,776
20,457
26,462
29,765
27,210
17,140
19,779
26,335
30,342
33,344
31,275
22,490

Stock
8,744
14,799
12,060
15,086
14,216
22,490
20,110

units
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
units
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Production
820,484
754,616
870,372
887,584
928,679
828,055
794,358
734,378
764,481
732,759
689,663
686,654
677,222
751,864
636,579
655,018
574,226
574,856
590,876
592,387
582,328
559,705
520,212
477,606

Vehicle, SAAR
M/M
Sales
Exports
-8.71% 383,026 431,776
-8.03% 368,108 384,984
15.34% 399,020 510,872
1.98% 401,288 474,572
4.63% 375,731 547,993
-10.84% 360,692 468,531
-4.07% 344,176 468,115
-7.55% 334,677 420,278
4.10% 348,136 402,897
-4.15% 344,544 378,611
-5.88% 331,696 365,979
-0.44% 311,890 344,932
-1.37% 293,164 357,535
11.02% 313,747 411,366
-15.33% 275,351 335,449
2.90% 276,968 355,474
-12.33% 279,330 304,510
0.11% 280,135 315,056
2.79% 275,815 314,795
0.26% 270,887 299,768
-1.70% 267,704 292,159
-3.88% 261,443 290,046
-7.06% 255,139 274,561
-8.19% 248,880 244,311

Production
512,924
716,540
828,771
764,495
791,007
599,407
375,120

Vehicle, SA
Y/Y
Sales
Exports
-14.10% 198,732 322,495
39.70% 262,532 447,953
15.66% 324,795 506,715
-7.76% 347,997 413,472
3.47% 358,582 433,295
-24.22% 274,880 316,253
-37.42% 191,265 186,236

Also see: Sales of agricultural machinery 1Q2014, National units sold -30.5% Y/Y - pdf, 8 pages

SA
Annual
capacity
Stock
15,560 1,138,230
15,686 1,138,230
12,393 1,138,230
13,370 1,138,230
13,783 1,138,230
13,686 1,138,230
12,191 1,175,710
10,477 1,175,710
11,597 1,175,710
12,398 1,175,710
11,730 1,175,710
14,216 1,175,710
16,426 1,208,440
18,656 1,208,440
20,804 1,208,440
22,685 1,208,440
21,884 1,208,440
20,189 1,208,440
20,212 1,208,440
22,023 1,208,440
23,895 1,208,440
24,579 1,208,440
23,789 1,208,440
22,490 1,208,440

Stock
8,744
14,799
12,060
15,086
14,216
22,490
20,110

Utilization rate
NSA
SA
45.6% 72.1%
60.6% 66.3%
81.8% 76.5%
80.7% 78.0%
82.3% 81.6%
67.8% 72.7%
72.0% 67.6%
70.0% 62.5%
74.4% 65.0%
75.7% 62.3%
64.4% 58.7%
45.0% 58.4%
35.2% 56.0%
57.1% 62.2%
56.8% 52.7%
59.6% 54.2%
49.6% 47.5%
46.6% 47.6%
53.2% 48.9%
53.4% 49.0%
56.2% 48.2%
55.9% 46.3%
44.9% 43.0%
27.7% 39.5%

Annual
Utilization rate
capacity
971,150
52.8%
1,021,737
70.1%
1,124,837
73.7%
1,138,230
67.2%
1,156,970
68.4%
1,208,440
49.6%
1,208,440
31.0%