From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling

Subject: Sink leads in FL-13 Special Election

Date: March 10, 2014
A new Public Policy Polling survey for tomorrows special election in Floridas 13th
Congressional District finds that Democrat Alex Sink is holding a 48-45 lead over her
Republican opponent David Jolly, with Libertarian Lucas Overby at 6%.
Key findings from the survey include:
-Sink has amassed a large lead during the early voting period, getting 52% among those
who have already voted to just 45% for Jolly. We find that 60% of those who say they
will vote have done so already, putting Jolly in a position where he will have to make up
a lot of ground on election day.
-Sink is overcoming the districts Republican registration advantage by overwhelmingly
winning independent voters. She is getting 61% with them to only 27% for Jolly.
-69% of voters in the district say that its important for their new member in Congress to
address the problem of climate change, including 44% who say its very important. The
joint ad campaign the LCV Victory Fund and the Sierra Club have run highlighting
Jollys lack of interest in addressing the issue has really worked to Sinks advantagevoters trust her more than Jolly to address climate change by a 17 point margin, 48/31.
And among voters who say they consider addressing climate change to be very
important, she leads by 62 points at 77/15.
PPP interviewed 702 likely voters from March 7th to 9th. The margin of error for the poll
is +/-3.7%. This survey was conducted on behalf of the LCV Victory Fund.
Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988

Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Florida 13th Congressional District Survey Results

Q1

Have you already cast your ballot for

Congress, or do you plan to vote on Election
Day?

Q6

Favorable........................................................ 50%

Already cast ballot .......................................... 60%

Unfavorable .................................................... 45%

Plan to vote on Election Day........................... 37%

Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q2

Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q7

(Asked only of early voters:) In the election for

Congress, did you vote for Republican David
Jolly, Democrat Alex Sink, or Libertarian Lucas
Overby?

Somewhat important ....................................... 25%

Alex Sink......................................................... 52%

Not that important ........................................... 29%

Lucas Overby.................................................. 3%

The candidates for Congress in Tuesdays

election are Republican David Jolly, Democrat
Alex Sink, and Libertarian Lucas Overby. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?

Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q8

David Jolly ...................................................... 45%

Alex Sink......................................................... 48%

Lucas Overby.................................................. 10%

Lucas Overby.................................................. 8%

Undecided....................................................... 4%

Combined Horse Race

Q5

Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q9

David Jolly ...................................................... 45%

Which candidate for Congress do you trust

most to address the problem of climate
change: David Jolly, Alex Sink, or Lucas
Overby?
David Jolly ...................................................... 31%

Alex Sink......................................................... 41%

Q4

Do you think its very important, somewhat

important, or not that important for your new
representative in Congress to address the
problem of climate change?
Very important................................................. 44%

David Jolly ...................................................... 45%

Q3

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Alex Sink?

In the last presidential election, did you vote for

Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Alex Sink......................................................... 48%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%

Lucas Overby.................................................. 6%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%

Undecided....................................................... 2%

Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 4%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of David Jolly?
Favorable........................................................ 48%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ........................................................... 53%
Man................................................................. 47%

Unfavorable .................................................... 45%

Not sure .......................................................... 7%

March 7-9, 2014

Survey of 702 likely voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 34%
Republican...................................................... 41%

Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to

65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 21%
46 to 65........................................................... 48%
Older than 65 .................................................. 31%

Independent/Other .......................................... 24%

Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.

If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 6%
White .............................................................. 88%
African-American ............................................ 4%
Other............................................................... 2%

March 7-9, 2014

Survey of 702 likely voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Early Voters

Election Day Voters

David Jolly 45%

7%

84%

73%

Alex Sink 52%

92%

11%

27%

1%

5%

Lucas Overby

3%

David Jolly 45%

9%

83%

26%

Alex Sink 41%

74%

10%

20%

Lucas Overby 10%

11%

5%

43%

6%

1%

11%

Undecided

4%

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
Base Obam a Rom ney
rem em ber
Com bined Horse
Race

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
Base Obam a Rom ney
rem em ber
Jolly Favorability

David Jolly 45%

8%

84%

45%

Alex Sink 48%

85%

11%

23%

Lucas Overby

6%

5%

5%

26%

Undecided

2%

2%

1%

7%

Favorable 48%

15%

83%

29%

Unfavorable 45%

79%

11%

36%

6%

6%

35%

Not sure

7%

2012 Vote

2012 Vote

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
Base Obam a Rom ney
rem em ber
Sink Favorability
Favorable 50%

83%

16%

33%

Unfavorable 45%

12%

79%

56%

4%

5%

11%

Not sure

5%

Im portance of
Addressing Clim ate
Change
Very im portant 44%

68%

19%

36%

Som ew hat 25%

im portant

23%

26%

31%

Not that im portant 29%

8%

51%

29%

1%

3%

4%

Not sure

March 7-9, 2014

survey of 702 likely voters

2%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

2012 Vote

Gender

Barack
Mitt Som eone else/Don't
rem em ber
Base Obam a Rom ney
Most Trusted on
Clim ate Change
David Jolly 31%

8%

56%

35%

Alex Sink 48%

81%

15%

21%

8%

6%

9%

32%

Not sure 13%

5%

20%

12%

Lucas Overby

Base Wom an

Man

Early Voters
David Jolly 45%

45%

44%

Alex Sink 52%

52%

52%

3%

3%

Lucas Overby

3%

Gender

Gender
Base Wom an

David Jolly 45%

51%

38%

Alex Sink 41%

37%

45%

Lucas Overby 10%

Undecided

4%

Base Wom an

Man

Election Day Voters

10%

10%

2%

7%

David Jolly 45%

48%

42%

Alex Sink 48%

46%

49%

Lucas Overby

6%

6%

6%

Undecided

2%

1%

3%

Gender
Base Wom an

Man

Com bined Horse

Race

Gender
Man

Jolly Favorability

Base Wom an

Man

Sink Favorability

Favorable 48%

47%

48%

Favorable 50%

48%

52%

Unfavorable 45%

43%

48%

Unfavorable 45%

47%

43%

10%

4%

5%

5%

Not sure

March 7-9, 2014

survey of 702 likely voters

7%

Not sure

5%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Gender

Gender
Base Wom an

Base Wom an

Man

Very im portant 44%

41%

47%

Som ew hat 25%

im portant

26%

24%

Not that im portant 29%

30%

28%

3%

1%

Not sure

Man

Most Trusted on
Clim ate Change

Im portance of
Addressing Clim ate
Change

2%

David Jolly 31%

33%

30%

Alex Sink 48%

47%

49%

8%

7%

9%

Not sure 13%

13%

12%

Lucas Overby

Party

Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Early Voters

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Election Day Voters

David Jolly 45%

12%

84%

26%

David Jolly 45%

19%

75%

28%

Alex Sink 52%

87%

12%

70%

Alex Sink 41%

73%

12%

48%

1%

4%

4%

Lucas Overby 10%

6%

11%

13%

2%

2%

11%

Lucas Overby

3%

Undecided

4%

Party

Party

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Com bined Horse
Race

Jolly Favorability

David Jolly 45%

15%

80%

27%

Alex Sink 48%

81%

12%

61%

Lucas Overby

6%

3%

7%

8%

Undecided

2%

1%

1%

4%

March 7-9, 2014

survey of 702 likely voters

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Favorable 48%

19%

81%

31%

Unfavorable 45%

75%

12%

60%

6%

7%

9%

Not sure

7%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Party

Party

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Sink Favorability
Favorable 50%

82%

17%

61%

Unfavorable 45%

15%

79%

30%

3%

4%

9%

Not sure

5%

Im portance of
Addressing Clim ate
Change
Very im portant 44%

64%

23%

51%

Som ew hat 25%

im portant

20%

26%

30%

Not that im portant 29%

14%

48%

19%

2%

4%

0%

Not sure

2%

Party

Race

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Most Trusted on
Clim ate Change
David Jolly 31%

12%

55%

18%

Alex Sink 48%

80%

15%

58%

8%

3%

10%

11%

Not sure 13%

5%

19%

13%

Lucas Overby

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

Early Voters
David Jolly 45%

51%

46%

40%

Alex Sink 52%

47%

52%

72%

60%

2%

2%

28%

Lucas Overby

3%

Race

Race
AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

Election Day Voters
David Jolly 45%

40%

49%

16%

Alex Sink 41%

31%

40%

65%

41%

Lucas Overby 10%

28%

7%

29%

24%

4%

6%

18%

Undecided

March 7-9, 2014

survey of 702 likely voters

4%

Com bined Horse

Race
David Jolly 45%

46%

47%

26%

Alex Sink 48%

39%

47%

69%

49%

Lucas Overby

6%

16%

4%

28%

15%

Undecided

2%

2%

3%

11%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Race

Race

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

Jolly Favorability

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

Sink Favorability

Favorable 48%

52%

49%

12%

35%

Favorable 50%

60%

48%

69%

32%

Unfavorable 45%

36%

46%

51%

52%

Unfavorable 45%

39%

47%

28%

52%

13%

5%

38%

13%

1%

5%

3%

16%

Not sure

7%

Not sure

5%

Race

Race

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

Im portance of
Addressing Clim ate
Change

Most Trusted on
Clim ate Change

Very im portant 44%

54%

42%

66%

45%

Som ew hat 25%

im portant

11%

27%

6%

17%

Not that im portant 29%

28%

29%

25%

28%

6%

2%

3%

10%

Not sure

AfricanBase Hispanic White Am erican Other

2%

David Jolly 31%

38%

33%

5%

Alex Sink 48%

38%

48%

59%

42%

8%

11%

7%

28%

19%

Not sure 13%

14%

12%

12%

34%

Lucas Overby

Age
Base

Age

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

Early Voters

Base

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

Election Day Voters

David Jolly 45%

38%

43%

51%

David Jolly 45%

41%

41%

55%

Alex Sink 52%

57%

54%

47%

Alex Sink 41%

30%

51%

32%

5%

3%

1%

Lucas Overby 10%

21%

8%

5%

8%

Lucas Overby

3%

Undecided

March 7-9, 2014

survey of 702 likely voters

4%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

8%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

Com bined Horse

Race

Base
Jolly Favorability

David Jolly 45%

39%

42%

53%

Alex Sink 48%

44%

53%

42%

5%

3%

3%

Lucas Overby

6%

13%

Undecided

2%

4%

Favorable 48%

46%

45%

53%

Unfavorable 45%

44%

49%

40%

10%

6%

7%

Not sure

7%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

Sink Favorability
Favorable 50%

49%

54%

44%

Unfavorable 45%

43%

43%

51%

8%

4%

5%

Not sure

5%

Base

Very im portant 44%

49%

44%

40%

Som ew hat 25%

im portant

21%

25%

27%

Not that im portant 29%

28%

30%

29%

2%

1%

5%

2%

Age
Base

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

Most Trusted on
Clim ate Change
David Jolly 31%

32%

26%

38%

Alex Sink 48%

45%

55%

40%

8%

15%

7%

5%

Not sure 13%

8%

12%

17%

March 7-9, 2014

survey of 702 likely voters

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

Im portance of
Addressing Clim ate
Change

Not sure

Lucas Overby

18 to 46 to Older
45
65 than 65

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988