A2: Legalizing Weed Solves Cartel Violence No direct link between marijuana legalization and a decrease in drug cartel

violence--e tortion! kidna""ing! t#e$t! cocaine! #eroin and met# maintain t#eir violent e istence% &ilmer, B. '()(*)2'(+. Legalization in the U.S. and Crime in Mexico for The New York Times.
http://www.n time!.com/roomforde"ate/#$%&/$'/##/how(can(mari)*ana("e(!old(!afel /wh (mari)*ana(legalization(wo*ldnt(end(dr*g(crime Beau Kilmer is the co-director of the RAND Drug Policy Research Center and co-author of !ari"uana #egali$ation% &hat '(eryone Needs to Know)* +e is also on the team hel,ing the &ashington -tate #i.uor Control Board estimate the si$e of &ashington/s mari"uana market) M*ch of the mari)*ana con!*med in the U.S. come! from Mexico. +t,! impo!!i"le to -now exactl , "*t m colleag*e! and + p*t the range at .$ to /0 percent for #$$1. 2*r re!earch al!o !*gge!t! that legalizing commercial mari)*ana prod*ction at the national le3el co*ld dri3e o*t mo!t of the mari)*ana imported from Mexico. 4ith mari)*ana legalization at the !tate le3el, import! from Mexico wo*ld depend on !e3eral factor!, li-e how taxe! infl*enced the mar-et price, whether legall !old mari)*ana were illegall di3erted to other !tate!, and the !e3erit of the federal re!pon!e. Creating a legal !*ppl in the U.S. wo*ld c*t down dr*g re3en*e for Mexican traffic-ing organization!, "*t wo*ld that ma-e them le!! 3iolent5 4e don,t expect the pa!!age of legalization in a few !tate! to !ignificantl affect demand for Mexican mari)*ana. B*t what wo*ld happen

to Mexican dr*g traffic-ing organization! if man !tate! legalized mari)*ana or if there were national legalization5 6he!e dr*g traffic-ing organization! do more than export dr*g! to the United State!. +ndeed, the !ell dr*g! within Mexico and generate revenue $rom e tortion! kidna""ing and t#e$t% 4e e!timated that exporting dr*g! to the U.S. earned the!e organization! 7/ "illion to 71 "illion in #$$1, of which %' to #/ percent came from mari)*ana ,t#e rest was $rom cocaine! #eroin and met#am"#etamine-% 4hile mari)*ana,! !hare of dr*g export re3en*e ha! mo!t li-el grown in the pa!t fi3e ear!, it is still now#ere near t#e m.t#ical /' "ercent $igure sometimes cited% Smuggling marijuana into t#e 0%S% is not t#e main revenue source $or most o$ t#ese organizations% 8ri3ing Mexican mari)*ana o*t of the U.S. wo*ld pro"a"l red*ce the traffic-er!, export re3en*e " a few "illion dollar! a ear. B*t wo*ld red*cing that re3en*e lead to a corre!ponding decrea!e in traffic-er 3iolence5 M*ch depend! on which organization! are affected, whether the!e gro*p! fight o3er the !hrin-ing mar-et, and the le3el of 3iolence a!!ociated with whate3er acti3itie! replace mari)*ana !m*ggling in their portfolio!. Legalizing marijuana doesn1t address t#e root cause o$ t#e violence: 2e ico1s institutional mal$unctions% 3o"e! A% '()24)2'(+ 59ope: Legalizing pot won:t end dr*g 3iolence6 http://www.new!da .com/opinion/oped/hope(legalizing(pot(won(
t(end(dr*g(3iolence(%./1'&0#1 ;le)andro 9ope i! a !ec*rit polic anal !t at +MC2, a Mexico Cit re!earch organization, and a former intelligence officer. Since <an. %, Colorado ha! had a legal mari)*ana mar-et. 6he !ame will !oon "e tr*e in 4a!hington State, once retail licen!e! are i!!*ed. 2ther !tate!, !*ch a! California and 2regon, will li-el follow !*it o3er the next three ear!. So doe! thi! creeping legalization of mari)*ana in the U.S. !pell doom for the Mexican dr*g cartel!5 =ot >*ite. 6he illegal mari)*ana trade pro3ide! Mexican organized crime with

no more than a third of gro!! dr*g export re3en*e. Cocaine i! !till the cartel!: "igge!t mone (ma-er and the re3en*e accr*ing from heroin and methamphetamine aren:t tri3ial. Moreo3er, Mexican gang! al!o o"tain income from extortion, -idnapping, theft and 3ario*! other t pe! of illegal traffic-ing. Lo!ing the mari)*ana trade wo*ld "e a "low to their finance!, "*t it certainl. wouldn7t "ut t#em out o$ business% B*t !*rel Mexico wo*ld experience le!! 3iolence if mari)*ana wa! legal5 ?e!, to !ome extent, "*t t#e decline wouldn7t be su$$icient to radicall. alter t#e countr.7s securit. outlook% +n all li-elihood, mari)*ana prod*ction and mari)*ana(related 3iolence are highl correlated geographicall . Mari)*ana o*tp*t i! concentrated in fi3e !tate! @Chih*ah*a, 8*rango, Sinaloa, Michoacan and A*erreroB that acco*nted for approximatel a third of all homicide! committed in Mexico in #$%#. ;!!*ming impro"a"l that half of all m*rder! in tho!e area! were mari)*ana(related, we can e!timate that the f*ll elimination of the illegal mari)*ana trade wo*ld red*ce Mexico:! homicide rate to %1 per %$$,$$$ inha"itant! from ## (( !till a"o*t fo*r time! the U.S. rate. 4ell, "*t co*ldn:t the Mexican go3ernment gain a peace di3idend " redirecting !ome re!o*rce! from mari)*ana prohi"ition to other law enforcement o")ecti3e!5 ?e!, "*t the effect wo*ld pro"a"l "e mode!t. 2nl . percent of all Mexican pri!on inmate! are !er3ing time excl*!i3el for mari)*ana( related crime!. +n #$%#, dr*g offen!e! repre!ented le!! than # percent of all crime report! in the co*ntr . 4hen it come! to onl federal crime! @0 percent of the totalB, the !hare of dr*g offen!e! ri!e! to #$ percent, "*t that percentage ha! "een declining !ince #$$0. So t#e legalization o$ marijuana won7t $ree u"
a"o*t 7%.' "illion to 7# "illion a ear. 6hat:! not ch*mp change, "*t according to a n*m"er of e!timate!, it repre!ent!

a #uge trove o$ resources to be rede"lo.ed against "redator. crime . W#atever t#e legal status o$ marijuana! 2e ico needs to tackle its man. institutional mal$unctions% +t! police force! are *nderpaid, *ndertrained, *nder moti3ated and deepl 3*lnera"le to corr*ption and intimidation. +t! criminal )*!tice ! !tem i! painf*ll !low, notorio*!l inefficient and deepl *nfair. C3en with almo!t *ni3er!al imp*nit , pri!on! are o3erflowing and mo!tl r*led " the inmate! them!el3e!. Changing that realit will ta-e man ear!. Some reform! are *nder wa , !ome are "arel off the gro*nd. ;! a re!*lt of a #$$1 con!tit*tional reform,
criminal co*rt! are "eing tran!formed, "*t progre!! acro!! !tate! ha! "een *ne3en. 4ith a co*ple of local exception!, police reform ha! et to find political traction. 6he federal ;ttorne Aeneral:! 2ffice i! !et to "ecome an independent "od , "*t not "efore #$%1. 6he reformi!t zeal that Dre!ident Cnri>*e Dena =ieto ha! !hown in other polic area! @ed*cation, energ , telecomm*nication!B i! a"!ent in !ec*rit and )*!tice. Sec*rit polic remain! reacti3e, dri3en more " political con!ideration! than " !trategic de!ign. ;nd re!*lt! ha3e "een mixed at "e!t: 9omicide! declined moderatel in #$%&, "*t "oth kidna""ing and e tortion reac#ed record levels% 2arijuana legalization

won7t alter t#at d.namic% +n the final anal !i!, 2e ico doesn7t #ave a drug "roblem! muc# less a marijuana "roblem: 8t #as a state ca"acit. "roblem% 9#at is! its institutions are too weak to "rotect t#e li$e! libert. and "ro"ert. o$ its citizens% :ven i$ drug tra$$icking mig#t ver. well decline in t#e $uture! in t#e absence o$ stronger institutions! somet#ing e;uall. ne$arious will re"lace it%