Geosciences Journal
DOI 10.1007/s12303-014-0002-1
ⓒ The Association of Korean Geoscience Societies and Springer 2014
Book Review
Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science
of Earthquake Prediction by Susan E. Hough, Princeton
University Press, Princeton, 2010, pp. viii + 261, ISBN-13:
9780691138169, Price: 24.95 (USD).
Key words: prediction, earthquakes, unpredictable, structures
The science of earthquake prediction has been nicely and
wisely crafted in the book on earthquake prediction, “Predicting
the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake
Prediction” by U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Susan
E. Hough. The book presents a critical review of the science
of earthquake prediction from its inception to the modern
development. It is clear from Hough’s writing that earth-
quake prediction has categorically failed throughout history
and for obvious reasons and thus, it has not achieved what
it was meant to; however, she acknowledges that a great progress
has been made in understanding the cause of earthquakes.
The book has 18 chapters, wherein the author delves into
the historical perspective of prediction, goes into the modern
day science and covers a range of examples, mostly from
US, to portray the real picture of science behind prediction
and the major challenges scientists face to accomplish this
task. At the same time she goes on to admit that a few scientists
actually make business out of this by hiding and twisting sen-
sitive information, primarily to get funding.
The title of the first chapter Ready to rumble suggests that
something is ready to strike, thus, this whole section is devoted
to explore this question and, therefore, it argues the devel-
opments in earthquake science and the difficulties scientists
face to understand the complexities of faults. The author has
exclusively cited scientific examples from US and particu-
larly, earthquake studies in California where the basic ten-
tacles of modern earthquake science were implanted. It
specially mentions the 1906, San Francisco earthquake of
USA, which is arguably the first major earthquake that was
studied in great detail by a prominent scientist H.F. Reid, a
professor of Geology at Johns Hopkins University at that
time and laid the foundations of modern Elastic Rebound
Theory. However, Hough seems to have somehow missed
another very important historical earthquake, the Lisbon
earthquake of November 1, 1775, which is alleged to have
fundamentally stimulated the developments in the modern
seismology. It occurred on All Saint’s Day in which a quarter
of Lisbon’s population was unfortunately lost. It further
illustrates the use of latest and sophisticated tools to under-
stand the kinematics and dynamics of faults e.g., GPS (Global
Positioning System), SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar), how-
ever, the complicated calculations, primarily with GPS data,
are sometimes quite frustrating for scientists. Thus, even with
the modern hi-tech tools, it is challenging to predict earth-
quakes, because scientists are still trying to make sense of
data that has been gather over decades. This is particularly
complicated because, often, faults do not follow a pattern,
though some may. Therefore, who will predict something which
is not yet properly understood? However, Hough admits that
some ambitions scientists do; but, history tells us that such
individual stories are always unscientific and misleading.
The second chapter has a detailed overview of earthquake
exploration in southern California from the year 1921. It
talks about the scientific development in earthquake science
and prediction and how the nexus between the two was intri-
cate. The major part of this section discusses how hard it
was, for scientists, to produce the first fault map of Los Ange-
les and to convince people and administration about earthquake
disasters. However, it also shows how that perception changed
after a major earthquake; this is even very true to the present
world, wherein a big earthquake is usually needed to awake
the people/administration to prepare for earthquake disasters.
It further identifies some opportunist scientists, who could do
anything to remain in limelight and they often use predic-
tion as a tool for that.
The third chapter introduces a great nineteenth century
geologist, G.K. Gilbert, who proposed that strain accumu-
lation on a fault drives an earthquake and this usually follows
a recurring pattern, wherein it takes a while to re-accumu-
late the released strain on a fault. This visionary statement
is praiseworthy, because it comes at a time when there was
no understanding of the tectonic plates etc. which was known
2 Afroz A. Shah
in mid-1900s. The chapter talks about the slip rates on faults
and how geologist uncover such measurements and then it
introduces the paleoseismology development and how it
helps to unravel the past earthquakes histories on faults.
The author spends a while in distinguishing the earthquake
prediction, which has a narrow time frame, from earthquake
forecasting, which usually involves a longer time scale. Seismic
gap is presented, which simply means that a particular fault
segment on a major fault is expected to break in a timespan
of say 150 years but has not shown such a movement in say
300 years, therefore, soon, it is expected to host an earthquake
and is overdue for that. So, though, conceptually earthquakes
should follow a pattern, however, it is not always true and
a number of earthquakes occur without any sign of incoming
and that is worrying and troublesome for any kind of prediction
or forecast that may come from scientists.
In the fourth chapter the author introduces Hayward fault,
which is a branch-off of the main truck of famous San Andreas
Fault. The tremendous scientific work on this fault has led to an
understanding that it hosts big earthquakesat somewhat reg-
ular pace (~every 140 years) and thus the next one is overdue.
Since, the last big one occurred in 1868, therefore, the next
was due in 2008. However, it did not recur, again suggesting
that seismic clocks are not always regular and could mean that
the average recurrence on faults may not always work. Some-
times earthquakes may fill the big gap by a bigger event!
In the next chapter the author draws distinction between
forecasting and predicting and discusses the various precur-
sors that have been used in the past. Her painstaking work
clears the doubts about prediction and why it is hard to come
by. Then in the following chapter, author discuses a well-
known Chinese example of a so called successful prediction
of the 7.3 magnitude (1975) earthquake that occurred in Hai-
cheng. However, Hugh claims that this prediction hype was
partly manufactured and a year later, in 1976, another major
earthquake of magnitude 7.8 hit the city of Tangshan in Chi-
naagain and killed 250,000 people without any sign or warning
by the authorities to evacuate people. The Haicheng earthquake
prediction was primarily based on an increase in small earth-
quakes, an unusual 2.5 mm rise in elevation and tilting of the
ground for nine months near the fault, and changes in ground-
water levels, and local magnetic field. Plus, there was an
appreciable strange behavior of animals, which helped in pre-
diction. Thus, it was more of luck than science and this applied
to most of the predictions made in the past. The Haicheng
curiosity remains with the author for a while and in the next
chapter she tries to understand the role of fluids in earth-
quakes. Since, fluids (particularly, water) is very important
in subduction systems and plays a key role in fracturing of
the crust and melting of rocks, it is therefore important to
understand if fluids can influence earthquake activity, how-
ever, this process is not really well understood and needs to
be investigated further.
The early earthquake prediction optimism is discussed in
chapter eight where author says it was party motivated by
the plate tectonic revolution, wherein vigorous advances in
understating of earthquakes and other tectonic process occurred
via plate tectonic theory. She writes that in United States
some eminent scientists were very enthusiastic about it and
influenced the government for more funds and asked for a
special policy on earthquake prediction science and they
somehow managed to convince the authorities. Also, this
came at a time when Chinese claimed to have successfully
predicted the magnitude 7.3 Haicheng earthquake in 1975,
which was not really true (read above). Thus, by the end of
1970s, U.S. science policy had hazard reduction onboard.
They also established an official body for evaluating earth-
quake predictions. Thus the chapters from 9 to 16 are exclu-
sively devoted to develop an understanding about the science
of prediction and its development over time. Hough makes
it clear that past predictions have utterly failed to convince
the scientific robustness of any such effort. Thus, the busi-
ness of prediction could not flourish for long and is therefore
replaced by loose term like “forecasting”, which is more
sensible that ambitious prediction. Also, the interaction of
scientists with public/media is highlighted, particularly in
chapter fourteen, wherein the involvement of scientific commu-
nity in getting the right message across the public and other
stake holders is discussed. The author maintains that it is often
hard to ring a bell and at a right time, however, concrete
efforts should be made to clear the doubts and it is an obligation
on scientific community to not mislead the people about any
disaster. However, she recognizes that there are always some
bad elements in science who will try to use an opportunity
to grab headlines, however, the scientific vigor, enthusiasm,
sincerity and integrity will always overpower the oblivion.
Towards the end, the author identifies that with the current
scientific understanding the earthquake prediction remains
unpredictable; however, there is a scope for forecasting and a
hope for a better understanding of earthquake prediction science.
This book is sparkling, entertaining, and a good read and
apart from a few typos, it is a rocking peace of literature. It
keeps a delicate balance between the genuine scientific efforts
and the difficulties, which scientists face in prediction science.
At the same breath, the author acknowledges the presence
of some scientific black-sheeps, which behave as crackpots
and opportunists. However, in my opinions this book circles,
exclusively, around examples from United States, which should
have ideally included more examples around the globe. Also,
some colorful illustrations (e.g., Google maps) and updated
fault maps should have been very helpful.
(September 2013)
Afroz A. Shah
Senior Lecturer
Department of Applied Geology, Curtin University
98009, Miri, Sarawak, Malaysia
E-mail: afroz.shah@curtin.edu.my